Toss the Paddle!Toss the Paddle!Looking for a Way Out Looking for a Way Out

of Carbon Creekof Carbon Creek

Bill VitekBill VitekClarkson University Clarkson University

The Center for Humans and Nature The Center for Humans and Nature The Land InstituteThe Land Institute

October 9, 2007October 9, 2007

The End of the World The End of the World As We Know ItAs We Know It

Vital SignsVital Signs Up Carbon Creek Up Carbon Creek WWithith a Paddlea Paddle A Necessary RevolutionA Necessary Revolution A Long ShotA Long Shot

An Enthusiasm An Enthusiasm Fueled by FailureFueled by Failure

The Paddle: A Failed Mental Model The Paddle: A Failed Mental Model Applied CorrectlyApplied Correctly Nature as Boundless Sources and Nature as Boundless Sources and

SinksSinks Human Mind/Knowledge as SufficientHuman Mind/Knowledge as Sufficient Human Concerns First and ForemostHuman Concerns First and Foremost Transgression of LimitsTransgression of Limits

ScienceScience AgricultureAgriculture EconomicsEconomics EthicalEthical

Vital SignsVital Signs Peak Oil: first trillion barrels consumed in Peak Oil: first trillion barrels consumed in

last 100 years; last trillion barrels in next 30 last 100 years; last trillion barrels in next 30 years. (A 22 year old today has lived through years. (A 22 year old today has lived through a time in which 540 billion barrels of oil has a time in which 540 billion barrels of oil has been consumed…been consumed… ~ 437 trillion lbs of new ~ 437 trillion lbs of new COCO2 2 in the atmosphere).in the atmosphere).

One billion people lack access to fresh One billion people lack access to fresh water.water.

The current rate of species loss is being The current rate of species loss is being compared to the five known mass extinction compared to the five known mass extinction waves. This “sixth wave” is anthrogenic. waves. This “sixth wave” is anthrogenic.

Two of the most populous nations are Two of the most populous nations are becoming two of the largest economies.becoming two of the largest economies.

Vital SignsVital Signs The latest report of the The latest report of the Intergovernmental Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change states that “there is a Panel on Climate Change states that “there is a 90% chance humans are responsible for climate 90% chance humans are responsible for climate change," mostly due to the burning of fossil change," mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels. fuels.

Soil destruction now claims 24 million acres a Soil destruction now claims 24 million acres a year world-wide, about half the size of Kansas, a year world-wide, about half the size of Kansas, a quarter the size of California or 3.5 Marylands. quarter the size of California or 3.5 Marylands.

Speaking of agriculture, it’s not just for food Speaking of agriculture, it’s not just for food anymore. Large numbers of Mexican farmers anymore. Large numbers of Mexican farmers and workers recently protested the high cost of and workers recently protested the high cost of tortillas, a food staple, due to the increased tortillas, a food staple, due to the increased exports of Mexican corn to America for the exports of Mexican corn to America for the production of ethanol, an alternative to production of ethanol, an alternative to gasoline. gasoline.

Vital SignsVital Signs Human population growth continues to Human population growth continues to

follow an exponential curve. follow an exponential curve. It is estimated that there are currently 27 It is estimated that there are currently 27

million slaves in the world, more than at million slaves in the world, more than at any other time in human history. any other time in human history. In In 1850 a slave cost 40,000 of today’s 1850 a slave cost 40,000 of today’s dollars. A slave can be purchased today dollars. A slave can be purchased today for a mere $30. (Bales, 1999).for a mere $30. (Bales, 1999).

Atmospheric COAtmospheric CO22 is at a 650,000 year is at a 650,000 year

high.high. Eight nations possess nuclear weapons, Eight nations possess nuclear weapons,

and two are working to acquire them.and two are working to acquire them.

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/consumption.html

A Trip To Exponentialville

http://www.oilcrisis.com/midpoint.htm

http://www.whrc.org/carbon/index.htm

http://www.whrc.org/carbon/index.htm

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

http://www.susps.org/overview/numbers.html

http://www.whole-systems.org/extinctions.html

Growth of yeast in a 10% sugar solution

Problems in Carbon CreekProblems in Carbon Creek

Interconnected Interconnected ““Solutions” often make matters worseSolutions” often make matters worse

Early daylight savings Early daylight savings increased increased energy useenergy use Jevons Paradox: British Coal and North Sea OilJevons Paradox: British Coal and North Sea Oil

The recipe for success is The recipe for success is brokenbroken Unleash human ingenuity Unleash human ingenuity Harness and commodify nature’s immense and Harness and commodify nature’s immense and

complex forces (90 million acres of US corn in complex forces (90 million acres of US corn in ’07)’07)

Enjoy the new and improved world that results Enjoy the new and improved world that results RepeatRepeat

Beyond the Rock is a Hard Beyond the Rock is a Hard PlacePlace

We are nearly at the end of a line of We are nearly at the end of a line of thinking that is no longer supportable thinking that is no longer supportable by the material and energy conditions by the material and energy conditions upon which it restsupon which it rests

Western Liberalism/Liberty depends on Western Liberalism/Liberty depends on Geological InheritanceGeological Inheritance It is now the Western world’s largest exportIt is now the Western world’s largest export

We’ve burned through our inheritance We’ve burned through our inheritance in record timein record time

We need to dismantle the We need to dismantle the worldview worldview that is dismantling the that is dismantling the worldworld..

It’s a Great Time to be a It’s a Great Time to be a Philosopher!Philosopher!

New social and political systems will New social and political systems will soon be required to provide liberty, soon be required to provide liberty, education, political stability, economic education, political stability, economic mechanisms, and a social net in a post-mechanisms, and a social net in a post-carbon world without cheap, plentiful carbon world without cheap, plentiful oil, natural gas, and coal. oil, natural gas, and coal.

What’s a Philosopher To What’s a Philosopher To Do?Do?

Provide PerspectiveProvide Perspective Ask Unpleasant QuestionsAsk Unpleasant Questions Expand/Contract BoundariesExpand/Contract Boundaries Encourage Awareness of the Encourage Awareness of the

Larger Goals of all of our Good Larger Goals of all of our Good Work:Work: A Viable Economy and Social JusticeA Viable Economy and Social Justice Healthy and Productive EcosystemsHealthy and Productive Ecosystems Civic EngagementCivic Engagement Post-Carbon Energy SuppliesPost-Carbon Energy Supplies

Changing Our Minds/etChanging Our Minds/et

New Conceptual ModelsNew Conceptual Models New/Old StandardsNew/Old Standards Renewed Respect for LimitsRenewed Respect for Limits

EthicalEthical EpistemologicalEpistemological EcosystemicEcosystemic

Limits and our Post-Limits and our Post-Carbon FutureCarbon Future

No Harm: An Ethical LimitNo Harm: An Ethical Limit No Hubris: An Epistemic No Hubris: An Epistemic

LimitLimit No Hurry: An Ecosystemic No Hurry: An Ecosystemic

LimitLimit

Proposition One: No Proposition One: No HarmHarm

Except for planet Earth, life Except for planet Earth, life seems pretty rare in the seems pretty rare in the universe. Thoughtlessly and universe. Thoughtlessly and willingly destroying it or limiting willingly destroying it or limiting the diversity and co-evolution of the diversity and co-evolution of life, especially at the level of life, especially at the level of species, is a moral wrong among species, is a moral wrong among self-conscious creatures who self-conscious creatures who surely know better by now.surely know better by now.

Proposition Two: No Proposition Two: No HubrisHubris

Human beings are the unintended Human beings are the unintended offspring of evolutionary biology, and offspring of evolutionary biology, and as such lack any special or pre-as such lack any special or pre-ordained tools for divining the world’s ordained tools for divining the world’s inner workings. inner workings.

Closer to our cousin apes than gods in Closer to our cousin apes than gods in all things—and genetically 99.5 percent all things—and genetically 99.5 percent Neanderthal—we should refuse to think Neanderthal—we should refuse to think otherwise. otherwise.

We should behave as if our We should behave as if our ignorance ignorance will always exceed our knowledgewill always exceed our knowledge. It . It will. will.

Proposition Three: No Proposition Three: No HurryHurry

All life depends on sunlight and the All life depends on sunlight and the complex and integrated chemical and complex and integrated chemical and thermodynamic processes it powers. thermodynamic processes it powers.

Net Primary Production (NPP) is the Net Primary Production (NPP) is the term that describes the energic and term that describes the energic and organic material production of these organic material production of these ecosystem processes. ecosystem processes.

NPP is constrained by many factors NPP is constrained by many factors and cannot be substantially improved, and cannot be substantially improved, increased or sped up over time without increased or sped up over time without the addition of inputs from outside the the addition of inputs from outside the system.system.

Proposition Three: No Proposition Three: No HurryHurry

Our high life of consumption is brought Our high life of consumption is brought to us by contemporary NPP to us by contemporary NPP andand the rapid the rapid drawdown of an eon or more worth of drawdown of an eon or more worth of accumulated fresh water and highly accumulated fresh water and highly energy-dense materials (stored Natural energy-dense materials (stored Natural Capital). Capital).

Across the board this drawdown is Across the board this drawdown is increasingly noticeable in the increasingly noticeable in the exploitation of soils, aquifers, oil and exploitation of soils, aquifers, oil and natural gas. natural gas.

In the grand sweep of human history and In the grand sweep of human history and culture, these are one-time draw downs. culture, these are one-time draw downs.

Proposition Three: No Proposition Three: No HurryHurry

We can’t speed up natural We can’t speed up natural processes.processes.

Our only option is to slow Our only option is to slow ourselves downourselves down. .

No Harm, No Hubris, No No Harm, No Hubris, No HurryHurry

Each is a limit on human behavior.Each is a limit on human behavior. Each requires us to think of ourselves Each requires us to think of ourselves

and the world in which we live in and the world in which we live in radically and deeply different ways.radically and deeply different ways.

Each will sound and feel foreign to us.Each will sound and feel foreign to us. All are necessary for the transition All are necessary for the transition

that is coming.that is coming.

Action ItemsAction Items Become an Become an Ambassador of LimitsAmbassador of Limits.. Block the “No-Limits” dogma peddled Block the “No-Limits” dogma peddled

by technological optimists and economic by technological optimists and economic theorists.theorists.

Acknowledge Net Primary Production as Acknowledge Net Primary Production as the only long-term feedstock for the only long-term feedstock for sustaining life.sustaining life.

Slow down. And when going fast admit Slow down. And when going fast admit your role in the run on the bank. your role in the run on the bank.

Welcome limits as one of the initial and Welcome limits as one of the initial and permanent operating conditions for any permanent operating conditions for any system with life in it. system with life in it.

Action ItemsAction Items Resist solutions that ignore human Resist solutions that ignore human

population.population. Resist solutions that create extinctions.Resist solutions that create extinctions. Count calories, including those embodied Count calories, including those embodied

in our everyday products. in our everyday products. Understand and appreciate the role that Understand and appreciate the role that

nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, sulfur, and magnesium—play in calcium, sulfur, and magnesium—play in your life.your life.

Demand a public and accurate accounting Demand a public and accurate accounting of our Net Primary Production feed stocks of our Net Primary Production feed stocks and capital stocks. and capital stocks.

Action ItemsAction Items Demand that losses of natural capital Demand that losses of natural capital

be accounted for in any calculation of be accounted for in any calculation of costs and benefits.costs and benefits.

Discount efficiency as nothing more Discount efficiency as nothing more than a clever way to increase than a clever way to increase consumption (Jevons Paradox).consumption (Jevons Paradox).

Accept blame yourself.Accept blame yourself. Honor your debt to the universe by Honor your debt to the universe by

drinking a toast to its—and your—drinking a toast to its—and your—continued existence. continued existence. You can do this every day.You can do this every day.

Imagine AlternativesImagine Alternatives Reduce human population by eighty Reduce human population by eighty

percent from its current level without percent from its current level without famine, war, viruses or the loss of famine, war, viruses or the loss of human dignity.human dignity.

Eliminate the automobile as a form of Eliminate the automobile as a form of personal transportation.personal transportation.

Revise the scientific method so that it Revise the scientific method so that it more accurately balances the discovery more accurately balances the discovery of new knowledge with moral of new knowledge with moral considerations and precaution.considerations and precaution.

Devise viable models of happiness and Devise viable models of happiness and success that do not require economic success that do not require economic growth and increased consumption.growth and increased consumption.

Imagine AlternativesImagine Alternatives Advocate ecospheres and ecosystems as Advocate ecospheres and ecosystems as

real and valuablereal and valuable Create political and social systems that Create political and social systems that

run on a solar economy.run on a solar economy. Create an educational system for Create an educational system for thisthis

centurycentury Replace “Consumer” with “Citizen”Replace “Consumer” with “Citizen” Make the virtues of humility, Make the virtues of humility,

cooperation, generosity, kindness and cooperation, generosity, kindness and thrift cool again, or hip, or bad, or the thrift cool again, or hip, or bad, or the bomb. bomb.

Why This is So DifficultWhy This is So Difficult

Flashy BrainsFlashy Brains GenesisGenesis PrometheusPrometheus The EnlightenmentThe Enlightenment Manifest DestinyManifest Destiny

Geological InheritanceGeological Inheritance Crediting the Brains (the Pumps) rather Crediting the Brains (the Pumps) rather

than the Inheritance (the Well)than the Inheritance (the Well) Bacteria in a Petri Dish and the Bacteria in a Petri Dish and the

Evolutionary Disposition to Live to Excess Evolutionary Disposition to Live to Excess http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/u/up_the_creek_without_a_paddle.ashttp://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/u/up_the_creek_without_a_paddle.aspp

A Necessary RevolutionA Necessary Revolution A New FoundingA New Founding Revolutionary Thinking…and ActionRevolutionary Thinking…and Action At the Outer/Inner Most BoundariesAt the Outer/Inner Most Boundaries

The EcosphereThe Ecosphere The Human MindThe Human Mind

Using the Tree of Knowledge to Protect the Using the Tree of Knowledge to Protect the Tree of LifeTree of Life

A True Test and Testament of a Well-A True Test and Testament of a Well-Developed Neo-CortexDeveloped Neo-Cortex

There’s Still TimeThere’s Still Time Revolutionary Thinking is in Our HeritageRevolutionary Thinking is in Our Heritage

Revolution 101Revolution 101 Re-engage your curiosityRe-engage your curiosity Read a national newspaper or twoRead a national newspaper or two Be wary of your educationBe wary of your education Master the fundamentalsMaster the fundamentals Learn the new conceptsLearn the new concepts Distrust accommodation and Distrust accommodation and

compatibilitycompatibility Hold out for the real dealHold out for the real deal Imagine your names in future history Imagine your names in future history

booksbooks

Revolution 101Revolution 101 We live in revolutionary times made We live in revolutionary times made

necessary by the sustained failures of necessary by the sustained failures of the current sovereigns and global the current sovereigns and global systems to provide everyday citizens systems to provide everyday citizens a life sufficient in health, freedom a life sufficient in health, freedom from want and fears, and the from want and fears, and the prospects of a similar future for their prospects of a similar future for their children, without degrading the lives children, without degrading the lives of billions of these very same of billions of these very same citizens, causing mass species citizens, causing mass species extinction, and running down the extinction, and running down the ecosphere on which our good lives ecosphere on which our good lives depend.depend.

Revolution 101Revolution 101 These sovereigns and systems go by These sovereigns and systems go by

many names: individualism, many names: individualism, capitalism, scientism, materialism, capitalism, scientism, materialism, corporatism, globalism, But they corporatism, globalism, But they share a common belief that the share a common belief that the natural world is without limit in terms natural world is without limit in terms of its sources of energy and materials of its sources of energy and materials and sinks for wastes and pollution, and sinks for wastes and pollution, and that the human intellect is and that the human intellect is sufficient to run the world as a sufficient to run the world as a machine for the exclusive material machine for the exclusive material happiness of humans.happiness of humans.

Revolution 101Revolution 101 After nearly a two and one half After nearly a two and one half

century reign, it now becomes century reign, it now becomes necessary to overturn these false necessary to overturn these false and dangerous belief and their and dangerous belief and their many adherents, and to usher in many adherents, and to usher in a new way of thinking and living a new way of thinking and living in the world.in the world.

Revolution 101Revolution 101 In such times it becomes vital for In such times it becomes vital for

revolutionaries to refuse all attempts revolutionaries to refuse all attempts by the current systems to make by the current systems to make accommodations, excuses, and minor accommodations, excuses, and minor concessions. These systems cannot concessions. These systems cannot be made compatible with an be made compatible with an ecospheric perspective any more than ecospheric perspective any more than the British monarch could be made the British monarch could be made compatible with colonial America, or compatible with colonial America, or Scholastic scriptural authority with Scholastic scriptural authority with 17th century scientific discoveries.17th century scientific discoveries.

Revolution 101Revolution 101 Revolutions require revolutionaries: Revolutions require revolutionaries:

willing and able citizens and willing and able citizens and organizations ready to confront, organizations ready to confront, reject, and replace current systems, reject, and replace current systems, and who are willing to:and who are willing to: State without hesitation that these are State without hesitation that these are

revolutionary timesrevolutionary times Deliver uncomfortable and terrifying Deliver uncomfortable and terrifying

truths to those least willing to hear them truths to those least willing to hear them Stand by ecospheric facts as bedrock Stand by ecospheric facts as bedrock

truth and not simply a theory or “point of truth and not simply a theory or “point of view” view”

Confront authority at their sources Confront authority at their sources

Revolution 101Revolution 101 Revolutions require Revolutions require

revolutionaries who are willing revolutionaries who are willing to:to: Speak clearly and confidently to Speak clearly and confidently to

those who are close to joining the those who are close to joining the cause cause

Mobilize at the street level Mobilize at the street level Create the intellectual and Create the intellectual and

conceptual scaffolding necessary to conceptual scaffolding necessary to build a new worldview build a new worldview

Take calculated risksTake calculated risks

Revolution 101Revolution 101 Revolutions require Revolutions require

revolutionaries who are willing revolutionaries who are willing to:to: Stand ready with one’s particular Stand ready with one’s particular

talents when seismic shifts occur talents when seismic shifts occur Utilize one’s positions Utilize one’s positions within within the the

current systems to the disadvantage current systems to the disadvantage of those systemsof those systems

Resist accommodation and Resist accommodation and solutions within the current systemssolutions within the current systems

The most meaningful work that we The most meaningful work that we can do is tocan do is to

““Build receptivity into the still Build receptivity into the still unlovely unlovely

human mind.”*human mind.”*

Beginning with our own…..Beginning with our own…..

*Aldo Leopold, *Aldo Leopold, A Sand County AlmanacA Sand County Almanac