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Title Type Date Report 27-Sep Report 27-Sep Op ed 28-Sep Last-minute decision to pull out of debate signals shift in strategy Rob Ford makes first public event appearance since hospitalization at Ford Fest; Flanked by brother Doug, the mayor took the stage at about 7:30 p.m. Saturday night, saying ‘I love you, Ford Nation’ issue of transit taxes; Tory argues he can cover the city’s one-third share of his $8- billion SmartTrack surface subway project without charging local property taxpayers an extra dime

Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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Poll articles in the Toronto election

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Page 1: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Title Type Date

Report 27-Sep

Report 27-Sep

Op ed 28-Sep

Last-minute decision to pull out of debate signals shift in strategy

Rob Ford makes first public event appearance since hospitalization at Ford Fest; Flanked by brother Doug, the mayor took the stage at about 7:30 p.m. Saturday night, saying ‘I love you, Ford Nation’

John Tory goes wobbly on sensitive issue of transit taxes; Tory argues he can cover the city’s one-third share of his $8-billion SmartTrack surface subway project without charging local property taxpayers an extra dime

Page 2: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Report 28-Sep

Op ed 28-Sep

Report 29-Sep

Op ed 1-Oct

Report 1-Oct

Anti-Ford vote hikes Tory lead in polls; Residents who might normally support Chow are strategically supporting former PC leader turned talk-radio host

Master-cheese theatre – how the Fords manipulate media; The Ford story, as it plays out on TV, has evolved from coverage of a buffoon to coverage of a bully

Olivia Chow gets creative in Toronto mayoral debate on arts; Tory calls third-place candidate’s napkin drawing a stunt in a subdued affair unlike last week, when Doug Ford participated in his first debateGame over for Olivia Chow?

Why mayoralty losers should get a spot on city councils; More councillors would challenge incumbents if they knew losing wouldn’t banish them to the political wilderness

Doug Ford vows to cut land transfer tax 'right off the hop'

Page 3: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Report 2-Oct

Op ed 2-Oct

Report 3-Oct

Report 3-Oct

Report 3-Oct

Report 3-Oct

Report 3-Oct

Report 4-Oct

Op ed 4-Oct

Tory takes aim at 'immense problems' in bureaucratic transit system

Tory's plan doesn't hold up to back-of-the-napkin scrutiny

In heated interview, Doug Ford defends his combative style of politics

Explaining things to his kids was particularly hard, Ford says

Residents fear SmartTrack's footprint; Mount Dennis Community Association calls on Tory to clarify his plans to lay train track through Eglinton Avenue

Doug Ford's transit plan: Subways, subways and subways

Olivia Chow Toronto mayoralty campaign lays all its cards on the table

Olivia Chow: Buses, preserving planned LRTs and hope for a relief line

A Toronto election should be class-blind; The background and biography of candidates are not nearly as important as what they say and what they plan to do

Page 4: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Report 4-Oct

Report 4-Oct

Report 4-Oct

Report 6-Oct

Report 6-Oct

Report 6-Oct

Report 7-Oct

Tory admits to donating to Doug Ford’s 2010 campaign

Transit is at the centre of this mayoral election campaign, and the three leading candidates each have wildly different - and controversial - visions for how we'll get around.

Fords face new conflict allegations; Civic activist alleges mayor and brother broke provincial law by voting at council on matters related to customers of family business

Ford's alleged anti-Semitic remarks land brother Doug in hot water

Tory’s support rises to 42 per cent as Ford fades, Chow in third: poll;

Toronto mayoral candidates continue to clash over racism charges; Statement from John Tory’s camp about Doug Ford’s remarks at debate is ‘the most disgusting low blow’

Harper hosted Tory at summer meeting

Page 5: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Report 7-Oct

Op ed 7-Oct

Report 8-Oct

Report 9-Oct

Report 10-Oct

Dead heat reported in mayoral race in Toronto’s battle of the pollsters

Missing from the mayoral debates: Toronto’s fiscal cliff; Canada’s biggest city needs to follow Calgary and Vancouver by adopting multi-year budgeting

Ford, Chow take aim at front-runner Tory in another heated debate; Ford and Chow form an unlikely duo, taking turns grilling the poll-topping candidate’s résumé, transit plan in a heated debateTory's track record a common target

Endorsements pile up for Chow, Tory

Page 6: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Report 10-Oct

Report 10-Oct

Report 13-Oct

Tory vows to revamp Toronto’s troubled housing corporation; The mayoral candidate’s housing plan calls for the formation of a taskforce of councillors, tenants and housing experts that will consider a restructuring of Toronto Community Housing

John Tory, Olivia Chow spar over Toronto public housing; Front-runner uses World Homeless Day to unveil TCHC plan; challenger calls his points about unused money ‘100 per cent wrong’

Doug Ford defends his business record at Deco Labels; Mayoral candidate says family company, Deco Labels, has ‘never taken a loan from the bank’ and that all divisions are profitable

Page 7: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Report 14-Oct

Report 14-Oct

Op ed 14-Oct

Report 15-Oct

ord slams political endorsements as Chow, Tory win new support; Ford’s new campaign ad features a comment Tory allegedly gave to a reporter in 2010, in which he called Mr. Ford ‘a smart, buttoned-down businessperson‘

Tory promises to find inefficiencies in city services, keep taxes in check; Chow blasts former Ontario PC leader, derides vow to find efficiencies and solicit funds from Ottawa and Queen’s Park as unrealistic

Doug Ford should boast about real achievements instead of resorting to untruths; Doug Ford has kept up with his deluge of misleading assertions and outright untruths throughout the campaign, despite his brother having made some real achievements on which he could fall back

Doug Ford warns of rivals trading favours for endorsements

Page 8: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Report 15-Oct

Report 16-Oct

Report 16-Oct

Report 16-Oct

Op ed 17-Oct

Report 17-Oct

Record number of Toronto voters cast advance ballots; If the spike that started on Tuesday holds, the city could be on its way to the best turnout in a municipal election in decades

Chow’s analysis to dissect Tory’s SmartTrack transit plan; Report on Tory’s transit plan to conclude projected TIF revenue will still fall well short to pay for Toronto’s share of surface rail

Ford joins Tory, Chow in promises on affordable housing; Councillor vows to make TCHC repairs his ‘top priority’ if elected mayor

Tory and Ford square off over elitism at mayoral debate; It was an attempt by both men to frame the image of their main opponentChow delivers left jab for fiscal responsibility

Rob Ford asked to leave polling station for allegedly breaking campaign rules; Municipal Elections Act prohibits candidates from campaigning within a voting location

Page 9: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Editorial 17-Oct

Feature 17-Oct

Op Ed 17-Oct

Report 18-Oct

Report 20-Oct

Globe editorial board endorsement: John Tory is Toronto’s best bet

Astute leader or micro-manager: What kind of mayor John Tory might make; Can the former captain of Rogers and the CFL right the ship at City Hall?

Toronto’s mayoral candidates have missed an opportunity; Much of the debate on the main issues has seemed to go in tired circles

Layton's hospital records were also accessed, Chow says

Candidates makes final push for support in Toronto mayoral race

Page 10: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Op ed 20-Oct

Report 21-Oct

Op ed 23-Oct

Strategic voting in Toronto’s mayoral election has its perils; If a candidate gets elected because of who he isn’t instead of who he is, it dilutes his mandate

Doug Ford would ‘round up’ everyone on RCMP watch list; Security issues dominate debate for mayor of Toronto after gunfire in Ottawa

Stakes high for mayoralty races in Southwestern Ontario

Page 11: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Report 23-Oct

Report 24-Oct

Report 24-Oct

Op ed 26-Oct

Tory still the target in Toronto’s final mayoral debate; Though some things looked the same as that first debate – the same CityNews studio, setup and podiums – the race itself has changed dramatically

Questions remain on fiscal plans of Toronto mayoral front-runners; Doug Ford and John Tory have been especially vague about funding for proposed multibillion-dollar projects

Mississauga's McCallion backs John Tory as Toronto election nears; Though the outgoing Mississauga mayor initially had a friendly relationship with the Fords, she has distanced herself in recent years

There’s no excuse to skip this Toronto campaign-season finale; With more action and suspense than a prime time TV show, the usual excuses for failing to vote look especially thin

Page 12: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Editorial 26-Oct

Voting advice from a fire hydrant; Earlier this year, on Aug. 18, we tentatively endorsed a fire hydrant for mayor of Toronto.

Page 13: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Poll/Polls Mentioned Quotes

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"A new online opinion poll, conducted this week – after Mr. Ford's campaigning began in earnest – shows that Mr. Tory continues to hold a significant lead, with the support of 48 per cent of decided voters, and Mr. Ford and Ms. Chow tied at 26 per cent. The Ipsos Reid poll of 1,252 Torontonians found one in 10 remain undecided. It has an accuracy rate of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20."

Polls show he is the front-runner. If the John Tory who made that confession was taking his own advice, he would be straight with voters and say, as he encouraged other politicians to say in 2013, that there are ways to find more money for transit but “none of them are painless for people.”

Page 14: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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"These real-life takes on the state of the race help explain the latest poll from Ipsos Reid. "

"The subdued exchange comes the same day as a new poll that underlies yet again that Mr. Tory is the man to beat."

"If Doug Ford and Olivia Chow, as the polls indicate, lose to John Tory in the battle for the Toronto mayoralty, should they be allowed to sit on the next council anyway, as members-at-large?

"Mr. Tory, who polls show has support in all parts of the city"

Page 15: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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Page 16: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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"John Tory appears to be solidifying his front-runner status in the race to be Toronto’s mayor, with a new poll showing"

"Mr. Tory, who has maintained a commanding lead in the polls for several months, confirmed the meeting.

Page 17: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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"Forum, one of the country’s largest market research firms, reported Tuesday that Mr. Ford has surged since its last poll, vaulting his support to 37 per cent of respondents from 33 per cent one week ago. Mr. Tory’s support fell from 43 per cent to 39 per cent. Ms. Chow went from 20 per cent to 22 per cent

"With just three weeks left to go in what has already been an adversarial race, the unlikely pair of Ms. Chow and Mr. Ford tag-teamed Mr. Tory – who for several months has held a comfortable lead in the polls. "

"Toronto mayoral candidate Olivia Chow may be polling in third place, but she and John Tory are neck-and-neck in another battle: the accumulation of political endorsements."

Page 18: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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"Ms. Chow, who is trailing in opinion polls, challenged Mr. Ford to be more transparent and said both he and Mr. Tory need to assure the public they won’t mix public and private interests."

Page 19: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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"Mr. Tory, who is leading in opinion polls with less than two weeks until the Oct. 27 vote, is focusing his campaign on his SmartTrack rail plan for public transit, and has been criticized by Ms. Chow for not releasing a detailed platform."

Page 20: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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"With less than two weeks to go before election day and Ms. Chow trailing in opinion polls, she is trying to close that gap by raising doubts about the viability of SmartTrack, which Mr. Tory has pledged he can build without raising taxes."

"A new poll released by Forum on Thursday had Mr. Tory as the choice of 39 per cent of those polled, Mr. Ford slipping down to 33 and Olivia Chow at 23."

Page 21: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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"It’s understandable if Mr. Tory is tenser than usual. With just a few weeks left in what has already been a gruelling campaign, he has managed to maintain a comfortable lead in the majority of recent polls – and increasingly under attack by his rivals."

Mr. Wright said his firm’s polling numbers show more than two-thirds of respondents do not want to see another Ford in the mayor’s office. “I suspect the people that have gone out to vote are voting against the Fords.”

Page 22: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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The big turnout in advance polls may be a sign of an anything-but-Ford stampede, accelerated by recent polls that seemed to show Mr. Ford within striking distance of Mr. Tory.

The obvious loser from this dynamic is Olivia Chow, who is seeing many natural supporters abandon her because they feel a vote for her would be wasted. She knows it, and in the final days of the campaign, she is doing everything she can to counter the block-Ford, vote-Tory movement.

Polls, she argues, are often wrong, so stampeding to an opinion-poll front-runner may not make sense. Besides, she told the editorial board of The Globe and Mail last week, “I don’t think Doug Ford would win. He’s plateaued out.”

Page 23: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

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For several months now, Mr. Tory has held a comfortable lead in the majority of polls, and earlier this week, a Forum Research poll showed Mr. Tory leading with 43 per cent, 14 points over Mr. Ford at 29 per cent, with Ms. Chow in third at 25 per cent. As a result, both Mr. Ford and Ms. Chow spent much of the night attacking the front-runner.

Page 24: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Firms mentioned

Ipsos

Page 25: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Ipsos

Mainstreet Technologies

Only stories about the election included - e.g. Story about Rob Ford's chemo not included. Note - I do not include stories which use the word "frontrunner" as referencing a poll

Page 26: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Mainstreet Technologies

Page 27: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Forum

Page 28: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Mainstreet Technologies

Forum

Page 29: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Ipsos

Page 30: Toronto Media Survey, Sept 27 - Oct 27

Forum