TOPIC IMPACTS 101

Oil and Warming

Warming: Is it Real?

Temperature Records Ocean tempeartures Satellite data Sea readings since 1800 Temps since 1900 Tropospheric warming “Warmest X” on record frequency

Warming Is Real [cont’d]

Indicators—Abiotic Clouds Earth crust data Ice core data Ice melt: glaciers, Greenland, Antarctic, Arctic

sea ice Ocean current shifts Regional changes Sea level rise Seasonal changes Snow cover Storm severity Water vapor levels

Warming Is Real [cont’d]

Indicators—Biotic Greening Species behavior shifts Species domain shifts Tree rings

Meta-Level Proofs Expert consensus (IPCC) Population perception

Humans Are to Blame

CO2 and the “greenhouse effect” Discovered by Aarhus in the 1890s Historic correlation (ice core data) Concentration has increased by nearly 40%

since the start of the Industrial Revolution Temp increases track with emissions Consensus says so Human activity is responsible or CO2

increases

Feedbacks Magnify Warming Albedo Atmospheric chemistry Cloud increase (heat traps) Deforestation (releases CO2 from wood) Forest absorption of CO2 (decreases as

temps increase) Methane hydrate release Ocean absorption of CO2 (declines as temp

increases) Permafrost melt/methane release Soil absorption of CO2 (declines as temps

increase)

Models & Magnitude

Models Prove Show that future warming will be substantial Models generally agree with each other Models are becoming increasingly accurate Backcasting effectiveness is increasing

Warming Will Be Large Low-end estimates say 2deg C… could be much

higher Warming will be worst at the poles Temp increases have lagged CO2 emissions

because of sinks and aerosol masking TO DATE Warming will be soon—significant effects within a

decade

What About Other Causes?

Ice age recovery Little Ice Age recovery Solar variability Volcanoes

Source Credibility

Consensus of scientists believe it IPCC members are highly qualified Skeptics (many) have ties to vested

interests A2 “Cooling before” A2 “Funding bias” A2 “IPCC politicization”

Warming Bad Impacts

Agriculture (and CO2 fertilization)

Biodiversity Climatic oscillations Deforestation/shifts Economic effects Equity Extinction-level

events Extreme weather Governance

Human Health Icehouse/European

ice age Leadership Oceans Regional impacts Sea level rise War Water effects CO2 bad—

acidification, plants, space junk

Lie #1: Warming Isn’t Real

A2 “Temperature Record” ‘Cooling’ since 1998 Heat islands Historic temp trend divergence from

emissions Satellite and weather balloon data Temperature record flaws

Indicators Disprove Evaporation levels Polar records Tree rings

Warming Isn’t Real [cont’d]

Models prove nothing Garbage in/garbage out (GIGO) Miss too many variables Cannot account for

Water vapor Aerosol masking Other feedback loops

Cannot backcast/predict historic climate Disagree with each other

Warming Isn’t Real [cont’d]

Source debate Editorial bias—major journals are pro-

warming Many scientists disagree with the

consensus Media bias—news outlets are pro-warming,

make money off of assuming the worst Politicization—especially the IPCC Training—most pro-warming/IPCC scientists

are not climatologists

Lie? #2: Warming Will Be Small Rate will be slow and steady Warming will be at night and during the

winter Total warming will be small (less than 2

degrees C)

Lie #3: Humans Aren’t to Blame Ice core data disproves CO2/temp

linkages Little Ice Age recovery explains Solar variability explains Volcanoes explain Librul agenda explains

Lie #4: Warming Is Good for Agriculture Disease resistance Drought resistance Fertilization Growing season

length Nitrogen

use/fixation Nutritional value Photosynthetic

effects

Rangeland productivity

Roots/soil quality Soil moisture Stressed plans Water efficiency Yields

Lie #5: Warming is Good for Other Reasons

Cyclones Methane shift Oxygen balance Pollution tracks Russian economy SO2 screw

Real Warming Defense

Momentum—too late to make any meaningful changes

Wealth Effect—solving the problem will be more expensive than fixing the side effects

Human and environmental adaptation mitigate many impacts

Instability of climate is normal for ecosystems

Other environmental factors are more important

Peak Oil—End of Petroleum Man? Oil is a non-renewable resource—means it

will Eventually run out Reach a point of ‘peak’ maximum production

When peak? Potentially as of 2007 Why worry? Oil is used for EVERYTHING.

Precipitous production declines risk destroying agriculture, the chemical industry, spurring a dirty fuel shift, and sparking global energy wars

Peak Oil--Defense

Lots of oil Tech will expand recoverable reserves Unconventional oil/fuel sources will fill in Market (price) signals will spur an

inevitable renewables shift

Oil Dependence

Lots of potential impacts Democracy Economy Environment Leadership/foreign policy Terror funding Wars

Lots of impact turns Backstopping Caspian/Russia Mideast presence Saudi relations/petrodollar