Erratum

Page 6 paragraph 2 the second sentence should read;

'If the plants depend for successful

establishment on mud wetted by rainfall,

conditions in a drought situation may have

been too harsh for proper establishment of

the plant population"

ISSN 0331—6734

KAINJI LAKE RESEARCH INSTITUTETECHNICAL REPORT SERIES NO13

A COMPUTER PROGRAMME FOR CALCULATING

THE AREA COLONIZED BY EMERGENT

MACROPFIYTES IN LAKE KAINJI

By

Emmanuel Asuquo Obot* and A J. Morton.**

* Kainji Lake Research Ins'titutePd.. M. B. 666New BussaNIGERIA

** Imperial CollegeSliwood ParkAscot BericsUNITED KINGDOM

Contenth.

Abstract 1

Intrbduction 1

Reservoir environment 2

Climate 2

Geology . 2

Lake hydrology 3

Presence of vegetation andits probable effects 3

Progrimme development 3

Definitions 3

Concept 4

Programme verification 5

Modification of the programme to incorporateharvesting and subsequent regrowth 6

How to use the programme 8

Uses and limitations of the progranmte 10

Concluding statements e ... • 10

Literature cited ... s... 10

Tables 11

Figures 12

Abstract

A FORTRAN programme which calculates the maximum areaof Lake Kainji colonizable by macrophyte vegetation in agiven year, and the productivity of Echinochloa stagninais given and explained.

A modified version of the programme which calculatesthe amount of nitrogen and phosphorus removable from theLake if Echinochloa stagnina is managed, by harvesting, asa renewable source of dry season livestock fodder is alsopresented.

The uses and limitations of the programmes arediscussed.

INTRODUCTION

The emergent vegetation of Lake Kainji has attractedwidely varied interests. Whilst the power generationauthority view the vegetation as a problem to the lak&shydrology and a threat to the life expectancy of the lake(Fregene pers. comm.), fishery experts see the vegetationas a valuable spawning and breeding ground for a number ofeconomically important fish species (Imevbore and Bakare,1974; Ita et al, 1982). Cattle farmers, both resident andthe semi-nomadic Fulani view Echinochloa stagnina (Retz,)P 3eav., the major component (92.6% frequency) of thevegetation as a valuable source of dry season fodder fortheir stock. Wildlife experts see the vegetation as theonly hope left f or the return of the Manatee, a herbivorousmammal that lived in the River Niger bef ore the impoundment.

With such varied interest in the vegetation, there isneed to manage and maintain it within tsafe limits suchthat while it does not affect power generation significantly,it satisfies the need of the wildlife/tourism, cattle andfishery industries

Such management can only be based on a knowledge ofthe cover dynamics of the vegetation in order to plancontrol measures well ahead. Cover data could be obtainfrom LANDSAT imageries but these are difficult to buy andare grossly out-dated when they finally arrive. This reportpresents computer programme which calculates the maximum areacolonizable by the vegetation in a given year using themaximum and minimum water levels of the previous year. Theprogramme also calculates the producti.1vity of Echinochloa.

2

stagnina, the nitrogen and phosphorus removable from thelake if 75% of the standing crop of Echinochloa stagninais harvested

The Kainji reservoir, 9°50 10°55N; 4°25 4°45Eclosed on 2nd August, 1968 is 136,8km maximum length and24,1km maximum width. Its surface area has been variouslyquoted as 1270km2 (Willoughby, 1974); 1250km2 (Imevbore andBakare, 1974); in this work the surface area is approximatedto 1300km2, At full volume, the water level is at altitude142m, maximum depth 60m, mean depth urn,

The Lake is bordered by Sokoto and Niger States on theeastern shore and Kwara State on the western shoreS

RESERVOIR ENVIRONMENT

Climate

The climate is seasonal, tropical witfl a distinctrainy season (April October) and.a dry season (November —March). The peak of the rainfall occurs between July andSeptember The ambient temperature are generally highsThe lowest day temperatures are recorded in December andJanuary, while the highest are recorded in April beforethe out set of the rains, Wind speed is generally lowduring the dry season (4km/hr) and higher (lOkm/hr) duringthe rainy season. Live squalls with wind speed to 90km/hrdo occur during the early rains Lake surface temperatureis between 29 and 31°C but fails to 26°C between Februaryand April (Henderson, 1973).

Geology

The geology of the Lake site has been suimnarized byHaisteed, 1975.

The wester margin of the Lake basin is bordered byupper Crestaceous classics of the Nupe formation. Thesouthern and northern margins are bordered by a variety ofrock types belonging to the basement complex. The floorof the Lake consists mainly of silty alluvium.

3

Lake Hydroloqy

The Lake is sustained by twp annual floods. Oneoriginates from areas around the source of the RiverNiger in- Guinea. The water from this catchment passesthrough semi-desert areas and deltaic swamps aroundTimbuctu where it loses much of its silt and about 65%of its water by evaporation and infiltntion before itreaches Kainji Lake in November, nearly six months later.Tills ts called die i3ick fIoo& The other, die "WhaLeflood" originates from the drainage area of River Nigersouth of Niarney. The drainage from this catchment areaand the river Sokoto with its tributaries is heavily ladenith giving a milky white appearance. The retention tiieof the Lake i ahoc 7b days, tmplysrtg that the Lake Fjj5155itself four times In the year. The Lake rises and fallsabout 1 Om annually. The lowest level is reached in Auqust,hut the Lake is essentially full from November to March.Presence of Vegetation and its Probable Effects

The presence of 'the emergent vegetation of the LaKewas first reported by Imevbore (1971) who estimated thatless than 0.5% of the Lake surface area was covered byvascular plant communities

Hall fl975) described the macrophyte communitiesof Lake Kainji as made up of Echinochloa ap., Cyperus sp0,Pletia stratiotes and copjlum demorsum, In 1977,using a combination of a side looking radar imagery(February 1977) and a ground-truth survey, Chachu (1977)estimated that 84.6km2 or 8.9% of the Lake was covered byplants mainly Echinochloa sp. Chachu (1977) used for thesurface area of the Lake, the 950km2 which he surveyed forground—truth.

PROGRAMME DEVELOPMENT

DEFINITIONS

A 5drãw-down period5 in this study refers to theperiod between the highest water elevation and the lowestwater elevation of a given year. A flood period5 refersto the period between the lowest water elevation of agiven year and the highest water elevation of the nextyear (effectively; August — January)

4

A vnew area9 is the exposed mud which has remainedinundated during the previous draw—down period.An °acquired area9 is an area of draw—down which maintainsa stand of vegetation for two consecutive draw-down periods0

CONCEPT

The concept (Kainji Lake Echinochloa Model, Mortonand Obot, 1984) is based on the co1oñisation char&bteris—tic of Ethinochioa stagnina which is the major componentof the vegetation0

For each lm drop in water elevation, up to 80km2 ofmud is exposed (Henderson, 1973). This mud can be coloniedby Echinochloa stagnina and other emergent macrophytesprovided the mud L wet enough for seed germination andestablishment. The mud is exposed during the rainy seasonso conditions are usually suitable for establishment0

If the exposed area is new9, it is colonized mainlyby seedlings. A colonized new area may become 9acquired9if it is exposed in the next draw—down period. If thearea is not exposed, the colonizing plants of theprevious draw—down usually die. An acquired area mayalso, remain inundated during the next draw-down period0.Plants in such areas are also killed0

An acquired area may stay exposed for more than twoflood cycles. In this situation, the mud may become dryenough for other terrestrial plants to establish and thearea will be lost to the emergent plants due tocompetition0 Thus, the depth classes and consequently,the area of draw-down colonized and acquired by theemergent macrophytes for a given year (in January) islargely determined by the highest water elevation(January) and the lowest water elevation (August) of theprevious year0

Eqhi1odhloa stagnina and other emergent macrophyteshave not been observed growing in the Lake rooted inareas deeper than 9.5m. This depth is ref fered to asDMAX; the maximum depth in which the emergent plantscan survive0

In any particular, UL is the upper water limit(January) and LL is the lower water limit (August)of theprevious year (Figure 1). D is an array which denotes the

5

classes (0im) which can potentially be colonized in aparticular year ie form UL to LL (when LL is less thanDMAX) or UL to DMAX (ihen LL >, DMAX) is an arraywhich contains the additional area of mud exposable ineach depth class (Thble 1), subdivided equally withineach im depth ciass

The area of mud which is potentially colonized inany particular year (AREA) is therefore, given by

AREA = A1 D1

where m is the total number of depth classes which couldbe exposed in any year

The percentage area of the Lake occupied by themacrophytes (PCT) is given by:

AREA x 100

PCTl3oo

PROGRANi"IE VERIFICATION

Using this concept, a FORTRAN programme was writtento simulate the expected depth classes in which theIiacrophytes are expected to root for the year 1972 to 1973

The area colonizable in any given year is shownin Figure 2

The programme accurately simulates the areacolonized by the grass in 1977 as observed on SLARimagery of February 1977 (Figure 3) but there appearto be large differences between the observed andcalculated values in years prior to 1977 (Figure 2)

The programme calculates the potential areacoLonizable (the environmental potential) in any oneyear but the calculation of the actual area colonized.by the plant should take into account the early years of

6

the lake when the vegetation must have been building upits population towards the environmental potential,controlled probably by its intrinsic reproductive rate(the biological potential) The plant are obviously capable of attaining the environmental potential rapidly e.gfrom 16% to 33% between 1976 and 1977 (LANDSAT March 1976Figure 4 and SLAP. February 1977 Figure 3), a reproductiverate of 2.1. An explanation is needed for its apparentinability to attain the environmental potential during theperiod 19741976, assuming a similar reproductive rateapplied to the 1972 LANDSAT data.

One explanation is based on the fact that the lastSahelian drought affected Ka:Lnji in 1972/73 (Ita et al,1982) . If the plants depend, for successful establishmentof the plant population0 There seems to be no reasonshowever, why the environmental potential should not havebeen achieved between 19741976 after the drought0 In fact,no LANDSAT data are available at present for 19731975, soit is not known whether this potential was actually achieved.An explanation for the discrepancy in 1976 is still needed,however. The satellite images were taken in February andMarch respectively; while the programme predicts thepopulation of the grass in January. It is known that thegrass is harvested by cattle farmers for their stock andprofessional harvesters who sell the grass to the nomadicFulani herdsmen. Thus, the imageries record what is leftof the potential maximum standing crop less harvest.

MODIFICATION OF THE PROGRAMNE TO INCORPORATE

HARVESTING AND SUBSEQUENT REGROWTH

Two factors were introduced into the programme0

1) The actual area colonized (ACT) controlled bya reproduction factor (R)

2) The visible area colonized (VIS), i.e.0 actualarea colonized less harves.

The reproductive rate of the population was based onthe reproductive rate of the major component of the population of Echinochloa stagnina.

7

A mean reprodiictive rate of 5.1 was estimated fromtiller density and seed production data. Eight seedcollectors were randomly placed in the grass stand andviable seeds trapped in the collectors were counted dailythrough the- fruiting season (November to February). Meanviable seed collected was 1009 seeds/rn2, Mean tillerdensity was 197 tiller/rn2 (tiller density in January, 1982).

From field observations it is known that when theplants are cut above water, the nodes maintained abovewater become active, producing new tillers. However, whenthe plant is cut below water it dies and the stem startsto decay within a few days. Cutting occurs both above andbelow water but cutting below water is more frequent as thisis far easier than cutting above water level. In theprogramme, the worst' situation - cutting below water is.

assumed. That is all plants harvested are killed.

The proportion of the total colonized area harvestedwas introduced into the programie as the variable CUT.

The raltionship betwen ACLJT, VIS and CUT are asfollows: —

ACT = VIS x R (or ACT = PCT if vis x R < PCT)

VIS = ACT x (100 - CUT)100

It is most probable that the practice of cuttitig thegrass for livestock had not in 1972, reachedthe highlycommercial stage 'it has reached at present, probablybecause the local people did not realize its commrcia1value so were too busy with re-settlement problems,In that case, the LANDSAT value for March 1972 wouldbe equal to ACT. Starting with the 1972 value of ACT,(10.8%) the progranme was applied for zero cuttingregime (CUT = 0) and reproductive rates of 2 and 5.1cFigure 4). . With r = 5. 1, the environmental potentialcould have been achieved in one year with 'a low value ofR (R = 2), the environmental potential could very nearlyhave been achieved in two years.

The results of varying the cutting regime are shownin Figure 5 and it can be seen that a cutting regime ofbetween 50 and 60% could account for the figure producedfrom LANDSAT imagery in 1976. In the model, the samecutting regime is simulated over all years, but inreality it would vary from year to year e.g. the 1977SLAR imagery suggests virtually no cutting occurredin 1977

8

HOW TO USE THE PROGRAM4E

Input Data

To calculate the area of lake potentially covered inthe next" year the following information for the currentyear must be defined:—

1. Upper water level. UL.. (usually available in January)

2. Lower water level LL (usually available in August)

3. Reproductive rate R (the present reproductive ratef or Echinochloa st.gnina is 5i)

The progrmrne can also be used for making managementdecisions; for example, if Echinochloa stagnina is to bemaintained as a renewable source for livestock fodder, agiven percentage chould be left unharvested.

If the plant has a reproductive rate greater than 4for instance about 75% of the standing crop can beharvested

For management decision making, the variable CUT(the percentage standing crop to be harvested) must hedefined For the present, CUT 75% is recoimaendedWhen CUT is defined, the prograitirne calculates.

1, Area of the lake potentially colonized (AREA)

2. Percentage potential area colonized (PCT)

3. Actual area colonizable (ACT)

4. Potential productivity (PROD)

5, Actual productivity (APROD)

6. Visible area colonized (VIS)

7. Utilizable standing crop (UT)

8. Nitrogen removable from the system (NRE4)

9, Phosphorus removable from the system (PREM)

9

The potential productivity (standing crop) is givenby: -

PROD = m

< P. D. A.1 1 1i = 1

APRO (actual productivity) is a function of ACT andPCT; and is given by APR00 = PROD x ACT

PCT

UT ( utilizable standing crop) = 0.1 x APR00NREM (nitrogen removable from the lake system when 75% ofthe standing crop is harvest) is given by NREM OO2 UTPREM (phosphorus removable from the lake ecosystem when75% of the standing crop is harvested is given by PREM0.002 UT.

The prograirune and a typical result sheet are shownin Figures 6 and 7 respectively.

It is more practical to make management decisionson area basis based probably on available labour forharvesting. Area to be harvested can thus, be definedas HARV. FIARV can he set to a high value. The relationship between CUT and HARV is given by:-

CUT - IIARV X 100- AAREA

AA A 1300 xPCTRE

100

A modifie4 version of the programme automatically convertsHARV to 75% of area covered if HARV is greater than AREAand calculates the area harvestable (AREAM). Calculationof the area harvestable takes into consideration of thefact that if more than 75% of the population is cut,(Reproductive rate of 5.1) the population will extinct.

The modified programme and its result sheet areshown in Figures 8 and 9 respectively.

These programmes are easily adapted to syst?rnsusing FORTRAN IV. 'For systems that use BASIC the'programmes can be translated easily to BASIC.

10

USES AND LIMITATIONS OF THE PROGRAMME

The programme calculates the area covered by thevegetation assuming an equilibrium state. In a disturbedsituation (for example during a high level of polution),there may be differences between the calculated area andthe observed area. This may be useful as a means ofmonitoring ecosystem disturbance in the lake.

CONCLUDING STATEMENTS

Using the programmes presented, it is possible topredic the extent of the vegetation cover of the Lake fora giveh year well in advance for management plans that mayrequire such data. LANDSAT imageries will obviously givethe most accurate data but at present the imageries aredifficult to buy and are grossly outdated when theyfinally arrive.

The use of the KAINJI LAKE ECFIINOCHLOA MODEL toestimate the vegetation cover data will also save thecost of aerial surveys which is the immediate alternativeto LANDSAT Imageries.

LITERATURE CITED

Chachu, R.E.Q. (1977) The vascular flora of Kainji Lake.Proceedings of the International Conference onKainji Lake andRiver Basin Development in AfricaVQI. II. Kainji Lake Research Institute, Nigeria,

Imevboy, A.M.A. and Bakare, 0. (1974) Kainji Lake Basin.J. Brop. Hydrobiol. and Fish. 3: (1) 79 93

Imvbore, A.M.A. (1971) Floating vegetation of LakeKainji. Nature 230 599 — 600

Ita, E.O., Balogun, J.K. and Adminula, A. (1982) SokotoRima Basin Development Authority: A preliminaryreport on Pre-impoundment Fishery Survey of GoronyoReservoir, Sokoto State, Nigeria.

Hall, J.B, (1975) The vascular flora of Lake Kainji andits shores. In; The Ecology of Lake Kainji. TheTransition from River to Lake. Irnevbore, A.M.A.;Adegoke, U.S. Eds, University of Ife Press.

11

Haistead, L.B. (1975) The shore line of Lake Kainji. Ibid.Henderson, H.F, (1973) A J.imnological description of

Kainji Lake 1969 1971, FAO Tech. ReportFl /DP/N1R66/524/1 0

Morton, A.J. and Obot, E.A, (1984) The control ofEchinochioa stagnina by harvesting for dry seasonby harvesting for dry season livestock fodder inLake Kainji, Nigeria - a nodelling approach.

Ecol, 21 (2) (in press)

Table 1 - Hypsographic chart or Kainji La]e(Modified from Table 2 of -Henderson (1973)

Hei.ght of(in above

tipper surfaceM/S/L)

Lake Volume Area of(m x 109)

1-rn

xStaturn10)

IncrementalArea of MudExposed (km2)

142 15.6 1.30. 0

141 14.4 1.24 60140 13.2 1.17 70139 12.0 1.11 60138 10.9 1.05 60137 9.9 .99 60136 8.85 .92 70135 7.95 .86 60134 7.10 .78 80133 6.30 .73 50132 5.60 .67 60131 4.90 .63130 4.3 .58129 3.7 .53128 3.25 .48127 2.75 .43126 2.3 .39125 1.9 .35124 1.55 .31123 1.25 .26122 1.0 .22 riot

121 .85 .18 usually120 .7 .14 exposed119 .6 .09118 .5 .07117 .4 .05117 .35 .04115 .30 .03114 .25 .02113 .2 .01112 .1 .005111 .05 —

110 — —

Fig.

12

1969 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 87 81 82 83

Fig 2 Percentage area of Lcke Kainji covered byEmergent Vegetation Compärision betweenCalcutated and Observed cover

ainji Lake Management Curve -

40

20-

(Feb 1977)

(March 1976)

10 ///

//lmevbor( 197!)

13

Fg. 4 Oo1 LAND-SAT Lmory 7(h SirneS $76

liLY

Fiçj. 3. 5idz looking air borne radar mosaic1st Feb 1977

14

Fig. L CaIcuLcitd arci coonizcibIe y Estagniria cit Cutting regimes750/9Q0/ assuming ci 51 rzproductivi rcit

01

ci

0101

ci-J

0

ci

En!iFonrrlcil ccilci

l1cirvc

—01 50°! Hcuvcisl

Tirn in years 77 78 79 80 81 52 54

15

FIG. 6 PROGRA14I4E; IIAINJI LAXIE ECNINOC1LOA NODES,

052'1(1(1 SEAT, 1111/5.1I • 00501)H( P/lI, 1,1,3. 0102111 11'EG/ii1 1(120)

C Till: (USlIATA Aol.; lrllo:'11110r1011,xllTsl(sI) .0500(15) ,X(l1),0(OI*10,,y(14),C p('lHjO)C ll1F:01•: 1 1111110/ill (1/i YEA/il)

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C 5)11'' '0120/0 (IF 00.0/10O, 00701711 C'rl'=76'I, 1075555 (1101, (0,1)1;

C 11/Of' '11.1'. 0111') 1100 rIOT/P. I,0VE1, 0)10 EACH YEAR10. .00755(p. P/A'C6,2)(xl111J(fl,xoX(l),Il,1l)11 • 307(1311 (I/Al( 6,01(0(1), 0=1,12)

C /s/if11 112011'1Ii)fl r:i)i,p ('1)1' EACH ill Ilfol'T0 11,110;;12, 05701311 i(EAi(5,2?3(Y(I),T1,123(3. 107(56311 1(014, 0076030 11) 4 IAT,12(5, 0075000. (011 '1 ,T=(,5T11'. 0070(510 1101-lIT. 30700211 Al,E)X(1)/10.1/5. 007071)1 11(.1=1(1)I'), 0(17764(5 '1 C'l.'Trl'rt70. 307712/s '1001/i (0,7371, 007720(1 'lIlT/i (11 14)

C :011051: III P/ill ('11I,l(1(10001,l: L1iiI'r( (0)011(1 1,01/ElI (:n1.01110001,o: 1,014111 (5th)C 'I')) X1AX I, Oil XIII 0

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C 11/iT L'0l'E11 Cfll,ll1II7.0r.l,E (50.511 001101, TO ((MAX26. 00771(5(1 II' (l,1,,c;'r,IlooX)I,I,pooX

C C6l,Clll,rE 00(1 P/TIlT Il/PIll Cl/lAO Cfl1,OIIAZAF1I,/i FOR 00CR TEAR,26. 0077570 lIP 4 1=1,12077, 0077011170, 1107767.0 4 1(0)41.31,211, 007717(5 (41(50/0,30, 70777411 1,1,l,*1 0.31. 007776(5 1)0 532. 0100106 5I'(,Jfl(33. 0(1(0(1,0 5 'r(,fl=105'r34. 0100270 )1IPJCE(h.i5)I,T35, 0100,1115 3 C0'O'Iiill('30, 010645(5 ('6.21/ (6,13)

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C C'\l,CIhl,ATI( 1'/I1CI;lI0'05/i III' 1,0K/i ,SIIRFAOS; PIITETITI000Y C111,01507,01)-1.1. 01011311 1,1') 61(/iA/1300,0100,40. 0151(51) (I"10.11'f,t)11l'rl1154(5. (h.(01(71( 0114 111,047, 0(0120(5 177 I'll IC,

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70. 0103111, 12 /l)0010Tl//IX,12 '1010.1)711. (110311(5 13 00101102(7,77., 4lI!IlEl 1I0,31I1'CT,6X, 4115000, I1X,3IIACT,51(,500000I),

lOll 1(11110 .1X,SIIIIT(6S ,47, 71111R111('r) 4X,7H001101('r))77, 510311(5 (4 l'llllA'r(lX Jill 9X,1Il2,l1X,IlI3,5X,H4,9X,j1l5,9X,1(I6,9X,jIl7,qK,1HlI,-, J'h5,1.l(0,'1X,0li1/S

7(1, 0(01110 17 0'1I"1.0" .50, 3511rC'r = I'lITEF'TIRl, P11(41111111010/i 001(0 (734/ill/iD)79. 0103110 in 111115101(50, 35014Cr = M:TIIAI, 1'/RC/ST/l(',/i 0110,0 11011/il/Eli)hIll, (5(031111 1'l F117,'IST( 10,471111111 = 117001(1,11 (1,0150101) PEI1CF.I'TAC,1( 60176 COVERED)01. 01031110 20 l"II0015P(/14, 1,11C52 = ,/i6.5)02, 01031 ill 71 I"005111T(/IX,4(II) = ,0'S.i)03. 01031111 22 (1l(l'/1)'f (1605.0)114, 01031111 23 O'l'lT'IAT(IX 441(1/0(5 = l'IlTE/iTIAl, 2(5101, STPIIOJ,110 CRIIP(loll(1/i5))15. 010311.2 24 /iI1R;'lA'r(//(X, l'lhIlTf,llDjIlG CROP 01116 1(0011 ill OEPlrFl(T0l10/iS)1111, 0103(15 75 r'1n:I(5T(lx,1607.ol517, 0103/Is 26 ("115101(10,37,1112 = 11151,1000f,i)1 .010111)151; CR01' (101111(0))1111, 0.1 03110 27 r'l'R or (1 .6 3 111011/ill = 'ITT 500/ill (4(1,1011/ill (20000,6))0.31 • 01031 5(1 7/1 Fr'R'IAT( IX, l3',lPIlEfl = PlI000lIUT/IlS 01(0(5111(0 cr011140.6))'(0, 0(03(011 70 FIIIIIIAT(//13, 2IIIIPOTE1ITIAI, ARC/I c0l1PI(EIWK;lF.2))'15 • 51,0311/) :10 0006111' (10, 361100(1011 = 150211/Il, OTIII6SIIIIC, CR110 (Toll/i/iS))'17, 0(1)1115 l1'rl'ip03, 01(53120 1(05

FIG. 7 KAIIIJI LM(E ECHINOC14LO RODIL: RESULT SHEET

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 9

11 tt' *39* 11*9 99 *3333*30 .43* 6039190 0*0333*3090*23' 0*'01:0*00**1***99*;*0****0*400*99*****9**00*106608*09000*1'0030 $09104**30400***49,0*80000089169000*39091404000100*00914*t0**0090096430441 0400904.0*400090 *43909*8*0000110* 90 0* 9139143495 *90400**Clot***900****9609*99*0***0*.98380*l'0**94991*900914$**4'*4**014*l*('02 * 9*9 9*0999* 99*1499*993*0 *0*9*0*00*499089***9189*999 4* 9 109171 o093o*9 *90*9 to t.**oo** 99 *0*4493.0*9 *0919 9* *0*01 0199 *8*9909*9*90*00II92 *6o*ocloi*o11%11o1199*06***00100**040*9****99*0*99t**999*99008fl*43**0*0

102 *90901t**'**O*t0**1t**l,Ot*00009***0006*****Om*t*14*9***0tt000**0*9113 9*99090**t*****1*0000*0000*8*****9******9140*4*0fl**09*90904343***9327 *t9**0*91000S000*o** t*i***Oo0099to***0t*0*9***000*900900*060*1c***009'*9*0****00**

,'lrI 4001')) 9131 31(1) (311911(1) 9090(1)

16

0

I

1 23, 32. I 334774,0 39,9 39) 939,5 2,7 39943,) 293.9 78.4

2 233.". 35,4 93,5 4049)0,1 3,4 40493,° '69,9 07,9

3 579," 3.1.1 3 l037 4.' 17,3, 43 93I6, 4.4 63933,7 1269.1, 126,8

4 3'M.' 27.1 1731(4913.0 22,4 447*64,1 5.6 69791,9 3299,1 129,4

5 473)_;1 31,7319247346.4 29,5 5340339,7 2.1 1149)2,9 2243.7 329,9

(1 99, 2 33,4 i320.' 33,4 1372)49,9 4,4 131714.9 2349.3 276.4

7 594,1 02.9 j99.5544,4 42,' j595041 ,0 30,3 356954,4 3191.1 319,3

8 973 . 40,11 i929'9. 40,9 5931643.0 30,3 157164.0 3067.3 306.3

0 1711,4 )s,3 396211,1' 36,2 5396288.9 9,0 139624.8 2792.1 279.2

11) 472,3 32.9 3i3629. 32.8 5135200,0 0,5 113620,0 2272.6 237,3

3) 991,1 11,3 1859352.: 41,4 391,3996,9 10,9 l5030,7 3126.7 312,6

12 574,1 92,9 1,l2972,C 44,9 1612'77.. 11 11.1 191297.2 3224,2 322,6

p09,3191)11 494:31 ('r'91:1:s::111-71121PC' = II 113 '''d I' P3118 3131 413141 111951911910 = IC lI 11, 31 [;J, 1:'tP 111 45144 :'vrprosir = '1)11963: 1'.4'914') '':rCE'1910: 5082 1(1913189P6111; = 132:'-'i'Ipl. 'IJ" II 31r5"11121 1991(13317781)9ppI'il = 4l'I'ItJ, %1421'I'i) C11111(111911E21(II * ll'rTiilIoI,r, 3"921111'1: CPIII'1T35111164111311' = 11T."PIlPI:lI 51.11183193 1I39'1131409:11 = I'I:1720 31(111119 95913857(111 1139$)

.9121771111: 1221' 11131 191'') 3 3)13' TIl( Ti)'111895993, 3935, ¶124. j974, 2196. 5416, 5415. 5416, 1083.

CIII * 75,35* 9,3

0 0 5

17

FIG. 8 1?E3Q3fth0151E KAIN8Z &IOIUE CCc8LOA OD&Lg 10011W (&IRVEST) INCORPORATED

1 • 0055211j5 lIFE! •flU'"2. 5S"S00 lISA!, Ta,3, '7'05"C J1PVOF" TI 32.0)

C 11(5 ARI300S ARC 11301F5000000,3TI111151,XIASXU),XlRI,AC5*10.,Y(R),C T'('OI'I)1' .I'10('f 1: = IIIlEIl iC YEARSC (1 5!JOTIITII1 01'.IEPTII Cl,55SF.SC S = ft''!! FXP(15C057,I; 5" 'lAd' lii DEPT!I ('3,555

4, 40055 'lJSi,SYII;' xoT.l(l25),x'sX(25),0l121,5(120),ST(120,7.0),YY2),R112515, ('023 111 .5', i''L,IAST/l'l ,lHt/

r ;'r, 'u:'W; CP'(' '01! RACE II' 0F 3''' ii 015555 Ii 4? = ''0)1 5EI'' '! o'r ''IJC CCII l'IIICI-'I4'A COil OII0000F

'=l'Ol'OOi'I'CTT 015 R5'"j;C C'I PC'IF'ORT3IIR (IC CC'lIIIIICIIJ,IlS RAREERIFI' 11151,354 001CR LEVEL

6, OY)jII}1 ' 'AXS.S7, 5075450

C '''r' I(171k1.R 17? YCARS• 50254 7(1 C11'I"15575

I'. 0575500 ,5!'052A1.0. 507552" YEAS 35,330

"COO 015 III'S (AX 001CC LEVEl, Cliii CACTI YEAR11. 0575620 I'bf!i(A,9)11526(I),5105(2),II,5)12. 0076340 l'EA!1i5,}l)(X1I) 5=3,15)

C 0450 5T515j0(I boor jill' CACTI l'l SCroll CLASS03. 077031C USOC(9,27)T0!31,t1,l7)14, 0076510 0=015. ('76S45 9" 1' l,12(6, 0175575 (1' ,lj 301, 0976075II, 5576570 51E)5(0)/10.Os. 057S7l P(K)Y(T)25. "577°5'I S CO0TT:''C21. 05771)0 .TIPE 5A,7)72. 5577)55 151111 (4,14)

C ':5' ATE I; SPEW ('SAIl'S 0.5 ETC l,V(TIT(IJ1,) ti 3411 11711CR CDLII 52 EARLE 110500 (LA)C Oil SlOE 000 0551.

23. 5777270 (Jri 7 71,T24. 5077363; III.=X'120(5 325. 557745fl

C SET '1,01CC CIILI1TITS.A01,E (.7 iTT COURT, 111 SI'AX26. 7077770 '11" (34,,i;T,HTIRX)Ll,=555Y.

C CALCIIT,00I: 50(5 P01ST SCCTII CEROS COIJORUZARFIE FOR EACH YEAR2.7, 05775)0 00 4 3=0 17024. ((077555 CT(1,3)'II,25, 0077600 4 TIJ)(Rj,30. 507777!"33. 077775R T,1,1,t15.72. 537777?. .1(11 5 itS,!,33. 01011l: STI.J,111.74. 01UU370 5 T(.J)550'!55 • 0 I 55350 00 I IC (6 , I,) 0 ,136, 7100471' 3 CI NT) ('(73437, 0l004I' "0715 (I,j )

C C 5I,CiIb0TF. 0111:1 CIITCOT lAid.? CflI,nh'ROCI'C CA1,CI'I,.S'rF: 0000I(CT004TO

01. 5155S4, O'I TO 51 'I35, 0360630 ol'RSS,40, 01 01'S)(i (1{I'll = 041. 51110640 5:1 11 ,i I 1542. 51057511 Ai;r10=ORrAi 0(.1160'l'IJ, I)43. 0101'17R 1.1:1:5 = r0.nSIA(4)4r1J)'STTJ 5)44. 0101515 ii Cl'''514I10

C CAI.C01ATC PCRCR1'TOGE 175 1,03(5 SIIRFRCIC R(ITERYIAI,L0 CRI,IISOZCO/45. 5101140 CCT AI;E0/T)04,5I00.4,5, 01511 OR 00 30 ,CT. 11 Cli TI) IS07, 501751 IOC'R 17,645. 010;?1E Cli T1 11,

C CIT CS! ("1 51'llIt( Ill I Cl RUSE. IRIS 1151 SIlO RFflRF RRRVI' ST 55SF (1 05C lOST YCA0 1,IIFTIIVE0

45, 5151731: 10 ACV3SR(40) — CA'I540 010 OR ROT SET ABOVE50. 5141955 JE EI'lACY CT..PCW)OC'r=PCP51. 05'I750 - ACRCAI30540CT/100.52, 5151340 C(FIR'llV,CP,5)CIITII055/OORFSRSOS.57, 5101 125 TC!C5T,GF,COTRFX)CIIT3S

C COI.CSLATF 143(5 00007' T,I4FT'-OVlkIl I ('3551,1,5 515101,5 45 LARI3SST)54, i0I46R 0!R5CTRC100.CI('I')/lSO.55. 4101 5R 00i01I71'OITR*OCT/CCT3I,, 0(01570 oR.1400=550145.0CIIT/I00.

C COLCIIIsTO: ITTTI,i SARI,!! H11''OARR 05 THREES57, 0101 5.10 ',r=s.) Ofl'RllIi51 • jUl 'S" ;IIICO=. 5711'?55, Ui 030711 OISI':IT=o,0520'i60. CrIsis HSLPP;(6,12)T,ARE1,PCT,115011,ACP,RARES,50ROI),010,IIT.I4RF.R.PREN.CIT,

LARRAIIIT . 0102555 IV CI7RTTIIIIF.12, 0152110 WR1TE(6 35353, 5102375 ;1"TTR (1, 17)14, 5103255 SIRItEI6,bFIS. 010273C L495t5(1,jS61, 0152.110 F'(TTC(6,3117. 0152475 4" 11(5(5, OR)65. 01523511 '4i'T5(5,i)65, 51020)0 :l1('r15l5,7$)75. 01O271R JOITOIA,?7)71. 5(55770. 300TC(0,25)77, 0( flOOR 401 00.5" 72)73. 51033.15 "lIlt OF tk,24)74. 0307)10 lIlil T5, 'SIT75, 01033111 51'0TE(5 5)550576, 515715'i 4(15111 1A,21)R77, 5377175

1 F''I''TOT 102)70, 5103176 2 ('((COAT (16r5,0)70, 5)5)477- 6. l''SIJCA' (10,07 1 II) ,i7001,l III)10, 01571711 7 T•'0"7451M Ill tb 20ilV.535,1( 10SF EC1IIROCHI,IIA liflllEi,/I)01, 0(03570 5 FT'RSA'I' (15b5,61AS, 010)471't 12 CII1'rlSl'lI/10,12,17F15.110), 5153470 33 E'1R"O1'l/,70 6'l,SHEA,SX 3110CT,45,400000 5X,3RSCT,SX.5IIRARCA,

14X,5110 oi'nii.Ax , 311555, k, s ((lIT I TI , 45, 7(1 SkRT! (7) , 451711 ORES IT) ,65, 3 IC (IT,745, I ORSOCA!I I Cl'F2 II

RH, ' 015)175 4 P114511120 lilT 50,llI),5Y.,1R4,SX.1R4,50,10),SS,ORS,5X,1R7,95.1H8.150, iii,s,(s'i/515, ('307475 37 CIIJI'iLT( 10;351(CC'l = I1IITCI'TIAl 'ERCISUTOllE 50(55 CIIOFREII)SE, 0(4)57;: IS F"O"A'fl 5,36110.C9 = J,CPllA(, OIIACC'iTROE O'ER COREPES)17. 510)477 IS F0"'IAT(l 47055 = 005 lI'LF I1,ASS)OTI FERI'F.RTIIGE AREA CORERES)00, 510)477 75 FIll'IATI/Ik,7IIIIARS = ,05.5)55, 510)470 21 FiI0'AT(/1X 4HR = ,F0.I')50, Q303470 27 CIIP"AT51 • 0153470 73 Ft(54AT(IX 44001'llll = PI)TC5T0AI, TOTAl, 51050105 CROP(TO0RESI)57,, 5103570 21 FI,R'5I//JX 35115T5145150 CR110 3(110 EACH 15 UF,PTIIITORHF.51153. 010)470 25 FOCI'AT(tX,IbFl.0)54, 1107470 20 F5l('iSTI,IX 375111 = I(131,3555L5 RTRRRIIII1 CIISPITII1ISES))SO, 0155470 27 FCO.'O'r II I 3171001411 = 5(Trnlill'J REI4IIVES(T1105E0) I06. 5 157 41!( 20 FI!0''AT 115, 5 3ft07'Eti = 090010(15115 FE1'I7RES (I'll" 53:01157, 0051.170 25 J"I'OOOTl//(X 3SIIARF.A = PIITE'!TlOI, oso:t CIIVEREDlKSE2))55, 510147,1 30 150511501 1ç, shiiorson = ACI 'SAl, 5155011111 CR110 (TUIIHES) I55, 510)3714 91 FI(0,ilATlll,33HARSRO = 5CT'IOT, AREA' COVEOHS(ERE2II

155 • 51)41' 35 Fl(C"El'l 15,1000111550 = SOFA HASVESTAR(C(SRESI)ill • 010341l( 35111'152. 515351111 FOR

18

flG. S ICAINJI LR2IE ECHINOCULOA MODEL: EESULT 11EET; RALlY. (IIAIOVEST) ;INCORPORATE12

6 6 0

Or oo9ot.,ct,oo*o***;oot*stoooo*ttooo*s**;*s*s**o0;*o.c00t000* ;*0800000431 4*0,01 oto**4*o*0*o***0*rkI**t0t4*****4***O0*****tt4****0**8t**4**0**********9?0*****9**031 *0*04 670900940090400009000040000030000000460080099*6*********it*o*o1*9**0*m41 too**n*t**0000000o*04910001000*0044*000**00It**8*060*OSI *00* oooooo*ot,o*oo*to*ooto*oo**;o**oo*o*000;0000*900**90***00000*010*;1480061 oo*o**oooto*ot**00040*009600t00000*90*407000***800048*1**0*308800#*

81' 0000910*0000* 0000499*008o0oo4*00*o*0o*o*ott*****o;;*totoootooo*;so**;;***0;;t;**92 0***900t00

102114 *9t01118*t*4*19t*0t000*9*fl1408000*6*0100000*000*000***0000000000*0409*0000*0**000040121 00000010004906410099400oo=:o:900o.000000000000000000000000c0309000004909**040****0000000430

"C" pp4O ACT AJ0.EA APR06 910 110(4) nRoo(T) PP0F'I(Ti COT

I3II7

IIItI

A000000002) -

1 470.2 77•0 l)91774fl Ii.? 140,4 301932.9 2.7 30193.0 703,9 75,4 75,0 105,3

2 503% 45,6 j6"277, 13.0 179.0 4949)",l 3,4 40491. 969.0 57.0 71.0 134.3

3 570, r. 4),5 11,04074 17_f' 220.2 03431 • 9 4 • 4 03439 • 1 1266.6 126.4 35.4 171 • 2

4 397,2 2.7.7 007101,0 72.4 301.0 647060,1 5,6 64706,0 1294.1 129.4 75.0 216,3

5 093.2 37,0 1074020,2 20.5 371.0 1109334.7 7,1 114933.5 2296.7 229.9 75.0 276,3

6 4)or 33,0 1303140.1 73.0 439,0 1302140.0 0.4 13921 '1.0 2754.3 776.4 75,0 329.3

7 594. 42.4 000S44,0 43,0 000.0 j595544.0 10.7 159550.4 3191.1 309.1 75.0 418.5

6 021 44,3 05710,10.0 40.0 531.0 1531640.0 10.2 153164.0 3063.3 306.3 35.0 390.2

4 173.2 3 .2 1710710.0 36.2 470.0 1346240.0 9.0 130624.0 2702.5 279.2 75.0 352.6

10 477 1 32.7 I I 30300,0 32.0 477,0 1136200.6 0.0 113620.0 3272.6 227.3 75.0 316,6

11 044.0 41.0 100 1337,3 41. 930.0 1567006.0 10.3 156309.7 3130,2 312.6

12 570.0 14.5 1612012.7 41.1 579.0 :012672.0 17.3 161287.2 3335.7 3Z2.6

750 40.5

61100 I'11t0'1001,1, 41,44 43014041(0, 47)PC" rrlrN';TTr,l r4p40:9T94': 2003 4050093)Pont' = Pt IT!" TI IL tfll'lJ, 5T1'If' 421 CR1171 it'0264)641' = Ar'I'31. r'14t44"'0714 4014' 43011000660110 or'T:,,r,I, /,90:, C2I'14REP( 011421AIN'T. = tCTtt!'L 6tItttI'ti !'Iiitfl("(l'11114,5)910 = 0141,01,6 (1.0,72,1ST) 6C0C1'!"SOE 0000 40901101'lIT I'7'O1,L1441101457' 4F'I1't3 r,or'pl'190700100011 = "331'! 114'' "E'!nO 0.' (31!" '101p141:" = l'9110001791'5 31:300140 (1(111,20 1

004011 = 01140 !OP',":.7T191.OOC-'47)

.3Tj71t'I91 CR21' 401 41.4!! jI t.0l'TIIITOOIIOO)1083. 1629. 11.75. 167. 7166. 5416. 5416. 5906. 1083.

MOO 470.0* 5.1

32.5 420.0

0 0

PUBLISHED AND PBINTED BY KAINJI LAKE PESEAIH INSTrWTF, NEW I3USSA, NIGERTh.