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Research BriefingNo. 11
The occasion of the 2009 UKRC Annual Conference with its theme:
the science, engineering and technology workforce and workplace in
2030, has given us an opportunity to review the data we have been
gathering from 2002 onwards and use it as the basis for some simple
statistical forecasting about womens engagement in SET1 education
and employment in 2030.
We have used a simple forecasting technique2 which presumes
constant growth i.e. that the changes we have seen in the last five
years will continue at the same rate into the future. Some might
argue that the present (unpredicted) economic problems are likely
to slow or even reverse - the rate of growth we have seen. On the
other hand, others might argue that since previous post-war
recessions have not halted the continuous long-term increase in the
participation of women in SET, there is no reason to think that
this one will. It might even be that the rate of growth will
accelerate as science and engineering are now being positively
promoted as the growth sectors of the future. Whatever position you
take we hope that our forecasts give you data to fuel your
thinking.
In this short briefing we used five statistical indictors of the
participation of women in SET: in education (GCE A level and Higher
Education), in employment, and in positions of power (SET
professors and women on the boards of SET FTSE 100 companies). In
each case we show you where women will be in 2030 if growth
continues at the same rate as it has been in the last five years.
In many cases the 2030 situation will be a long way away from a
state of equity with men. We hope these forecasts contribute to the
debate about where we can best make an impact to improve womens
participation in SET, and increase the UKs future capacity in
SET.
Tomorrows Women, Tomorrows WorldWhat do key statistics indicate
about womens engagement in SET education and employment in the
present and in the future?
Where are We noW?
Girlsare42.4%ofGCEAlevelstudents in STEM
subjects.Womenmakeup33.5%ofallhigher education (HE) students in SET
disciplines.Womenrepresent18.5%ofSETemployees.Womenhold9.0%ofdirectorshipsin
the UK FTSE 100 companies in SET sectors.
8.0%ofallSETprofessorsarefemale.
Where Will We be in 2030?
Girlswillbe45.7%ofGCEAlevelstudents in STEM
subjects.Womenwillmakeup39.4%ofallHEstudents in SET
disciplines.Womenwillrepresent20.9%ofSETemployees.Womenwillhold18.0%ofdirectorships
in the UK FTSE 100 companies in SET sectors.
Asmanyas28.3%ofSETprofessors will be female.
When Will We achieve equal proporTions of Women and men?
FemaleandmaleGCEAlevelstudentsinSTEM
subjectswillbeequallyrepresentedin2058.
FemaleHEstudentsinSETdisciplines
willreach50%representationin2069.
ProportionofwomeninSETemploymentwill
notreach50%inthe21stcentury.
GenderequalityamongdirectorsoftheUK FTSE 100 SET companies will
be achieved in2073.
WomenSETprofessorswillreachequal
representationwiththeirmalepeersin2045.
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PostCompulsoryEducation
TheproportionofgirlsamongallstudentsundertakingSTEMsubjectsatAlevelhasincreasedby
0.6percentagepointsinthelastfiveyears.Ifthisincreasecontinuesatthesamerate,by2030girls
willbe45.7%ofSTEMAlevelstudents.Girlsandboyswillbeequallyrepresentedby2058.
Theoverallfiguresdisguisethefactthatin2007/8girlsmadeuponly7.5%ofallcomputerscience
studentsand21.4%ofallphysicsstudents.
Higher Education
TheproportionofwomenamongallSETundergraduateandpostgraduatestudentsincreasedby1.0
percentage point in the last five years. If this increase continues
at the same rate, by 2030 women will be
39.4%ofallstudentstakingSET-relatedsubjects,andtheywillachieveequalrepresentationby2069.
Womenare33.5%ofallstudentsinSETdisciplines,buttheymakeuponly15.9%ofengineeringand
technologystudentsand21.4%ofcomputersciencestudents.
The 2030 forecast for girls undertaking STEM subjects at A level
in England
The 2030 forecast for women undergraduate and postgraduate
students in SET at UK HE institutions
The 2030 forecast for female full-time SET professors at UK HE
institutions
The 2030 forecast for women directors in SET FTSE 100
companies
2003/04
79.1
2004/05
78.9
2005/06
81.9
2006/07
84.5
2007/08
87.0
2029/300
50
100
150
20
30
40
50
10
146.8
41.8 41.8 42.042.8 42.4 45.7
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)(0
00S
)
NUMBER(000S)
%
2002/03
168.2
2003/04
177.8
2004/05
182.5
2005/06
186.5
2006/07
188.7
2029/300
100
200
300
400
20
30
40
10
39.4
32.5 32.6 33.133.4 33.5
366.0
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)(0
00S
)
NUMBER(000S)
%
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Female SET Academics
Numbersoffemaleandmaleacademics(excludingprofessors)haveincreasedsince2003/4by8.2%
and0.1%respectively.
Onein4academics(excludingprofessors)isfemale,showingaproportionalgrowthoffemale
academicssince2003/4of1.5percentagepoints.
Numbersoffemaleandmaleprofessorshaveincreasedsince2003/4by39.7%and15.0%respectively.
Theratiooffemalestudentstofemaleprofessorsis1to429,whiletheratioofmalestudentsto
maleprofessorsis1to75.
Womenarelessthan5%ofprofessorsinphysics,mathematics,civilengineering,mineral,metallurgy
& materials engineering, electrical, electronic & computer
engineering, and mechanical, aero & production engineering.
TheproportionofwomenamongallSETprofessorsgrewby1.6percentagepointsinthelast4years.
Ifthisincreasecontinuesatthesamerate,by2030womenwillbe28.3%ofallSETprofessors.Women
professorswillreachequalrepresentationwiththeirmalepeersin2045.
Women directors in the SET FTSE 100 companies
TheproportionofwomenamongFTSE100directorsinSETsectorsincreasedby1.0percentagepointin
thelastsixyears.Ifthisincreasecontinuesatthesamerate,by2030womenwillbe18.0%ofall
directorsofSETFTSE100companies.Womenwillreachequalrepresentationin2073.Thenumbersof
femaledirectorshaveincreasedby34.5%since2003,explainingtherelativelyrapidpredictivegrowth.
JustoveroneinfourcompaniesinSETsectorshadmorethanonefemaledirectorontheircorporate
boards,whileexclusivelymaleboardsstillexistin35.0%ofSETcompanies.
The 2030 forecast for girls undertaking STEM subjects at A level
in England
The 2030 forecast for women undergraduate and postgraduate
students in SET at UK HE institutions
The 2030 forecast for female full-time SET professors at UK HE
institutions
The 2030 forecast for women directors in SET FTSE 100
companies
NUMBER
%
2003/04
315
2004/05
345
2005/06
400
2006/07
440
2029/300
3000
6000
15
30
0
5749
6.4 6.97.6 8.0
28.3
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)
2003
29
2004
29
2005
40
2006
34
2007 2008
34 39
20300
100
150
50
200
10
20
0
193
8.0 8.2
9.8
8.59.2
18.0
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)
NUMBER
%
9.0
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Employment in SET
ThenumberofwomenemployedinSEToccupationshasincreasedsince2002by11.4%,whilethe
numberofmenemployedinSETincreasedbyonly8.5%.
ProportionofwomenamongallemployeesinSETincreasedby0.4percentagepointsinthelast
6years.Ifthisincreasecontinuesatthesamerate,by2030womenwillbe20.9%ofallSETemployees.
TheproportionofwomeninSETemploymentwillnotreach50%inthe21stcentury.
ThereisadifferentialdistributionofwomeninSEToccupations.Womenare38.7%ofscience
professionals,5.4%ofengineeringprofessionals,14.3%ofICTprofessionalsand18.8%ofbuilding
professionals. The fastest growth was observed among female
building professionals whose numbers
almostdoubledoverthelast6years,whilethenumbersofmalebuildingprofessionalshaveshownonly
a slight increase.
Further copies of this research briefing and the others in the
series are available from:www.ukrc4setwomen.org
FOOTNOTES:1. STEM subject and SET occupational
classificationsSTEM subject classification:
http://www.ukrc4setwomen.org.uk/downloads/STEM_subjects.pdf SET
occupation classification:
http://www.ukrc4setwomen.org.uk/downloads/SET_occupation_classification.pdf
2. Forecasting The exponential model for this analysis is based
on the assumption of a constant growth rate, r. The model is
described by the following:Pn+1 = (1 + r)Pn (n = 0, 1, 2,)Where Pn
is the population size at n years after some chosen starting
time.
3. Data sourcesGCE A level: DfES (2005 - 2007) & DCSF (2008,
2009)Higher Education: HESA (2005 - 2008) Students in Higher
Education Institutions 2003/04 - 2006/07. Cheltenham, HESA.HE
Academic Staff: HESA (2005 - 2008) Resources of Higher Education
Institutions 2003/04 - 2006/07. Cheltenham, HESA.SET employment:
Office for National Statistics; Quarterly Labour Force Survey,
January - December, 2002 - 2007. Distributed by the Economic and
Social Data Service. Female FTSE 100 in SET: Data were extrapolated
from The 2003 Female FTSE Index, The 2004 Female FTSE Index, The
Female FTSE Index 2005, The Female FTSE Report 2006, The Female
FTSE Report 2007, and The Female FTSE Report 2008 published by the
International Centre for Women Leaders at Cranfield University.
The 2030 forecast for women in SET occupations in the UK
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20300 10
518,148
482,872
519,459552,843
556,409577,165
500,000
1,000,000
14
18
22
20.9
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)
NUMBER
%
18.1
17.0
17.9
18.618.2
18.5
976,843
research, data and policy Team
UK Resource Centre for Women in Science, Engineering and
TechnologyListerhillsParkofScienceandCommerce4042CampusRoad,Bradford,BD71HR
Tel:01274436485Fax:01274436471
Email:[email protected]:www.ukrc4setwomen.org
PublishedbyUKResourceCentreinMarch2009
