Tokyo Workshop on An African Green Revolution.Planned Research Session

Agro-climate and Green Revolution:Evidence from India with Implications for Africa

Dec. 7th 2008Takuji Tsusaka and Kaliappa Kalirajan

Overview: Drivers of Success in India

• Successful Regions New agricultural policy toward technology development in the context of the successive droughts in the mid ’60s in the northwest region. High irrigation ratio Introduction of tube well Importance of road conditions

• Further Development1980s: Development of Modern Varieties Introduction of small scale irrigation with pumping.

Rural poverty reduction

Influence of British Colonization

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sorghum

Millet

Rice

Wheat, Maize,Barley and Others

India consists of 29 states of

diverse agro-climates

The agricultural production environments in some parts of India are similar to those in Africa, which implies a technology transferability

(1) Similarity in Cropping Patterns

(2) Diversity in agro-climate

(3) Dominance of peasants

Rationale for Comparison of between India and AfricaSimilarities

Bajra (Pearl Millet) Field

Sources: The India Database; WDR 2008

(1)Area harvested (%)

4320

8

India SSA Asia(1987) (2000-

2004Avg.)(2000-2004Avg.)

(2) Agro-Climate Diversity• Geographic area: 328 million ha, from 8oN to 36oN in latitude, between 68oE and 98oE in lon

gitude, the altitude varying from the mean sea-level to the highest mountain ranges of the world.

• Rainfall: India contains the station with the highest mean annual rainfall in the world (Cherrapunji in Assam) and also dry, semi-desert area in Rajasthan. In parts of Rajasthan and the Deccan, the variability of rainfall is more than 100 per cent of the mean.

• Temperature: It varies greatly geographically as well as seasonally. Northern and central parts of India in the pre-monsoon months the maximum temperatures of over 40oC are reached over a large area. Frost occurs in winter in the plains, as far south as a line drawn through Madhya Pradesh and may be heavy in Kashmir and areas north of Punjab.

• The peasantry ranges from the relatively affluent Punjabi farmers who operate with a high input intensity in agriculture to the subsistent farmers of eastern and central India. Between these two extremes, various intensities of cultivation are practiced. The fact is that the average farm-size in most areas is lower than that in most tropical countries.

Rationale for Comparison between India and AfricaSimilarities

(3) Dominance of Peasants

Reference: Krishiworld

District-level Climate Diversity in India

0

20

40

60

80

100

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 330

20

40

60

80

015

030

045

060

075

090

0

Precipitation (July) Temperature (July)

mm °C

# of districts # of districts

Rather varied precipitation and temperature levels across districts.

Sources: The India Database for 1987

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Comparison of Average Cereal Yields between India and Africa

Source: FAOSTAT

Sub-Saharan Africa

India

Despite the similarity in cropping patterns,

there is a significant gap in yield growth.

(Ton/ha)

Southeast Asia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

Yield Growth in Major CropsIndia vs. Africa

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

The yields for dominant crops in Africa, sorghum and millet, are not inferior to those in India, indicating the limited transferability of technology from India. Aside from rice, it may be better to focus on the technology on maize.

Wheat

Rice

Maize

SorghumMillet

Yield (Ton/ha) Yield (Ton/ha)

Wheat

Rice

Maize

SorghumMillet

India Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: FAOSTAT

Research Questions to be Answered

Q1. Is the soil quality a critical factor? It it is, to what extent? Isn’t there any possibility for breakthrough?

Q2. Is there a possibility of growth under poor road condition and lack of irrigation?

Q3. Are climate instability and adverse climate, which are common in SSA, a stumbling block? How is it comparable to India?

Is the role of climate becoming less important as technology improves?

Underlying Assumption: Before the introduction of MVs, factors affecting crop yields were not essentially different

between SSA and India. Reliable panel data will be useful to explore these issues quantitatively.

Water

Road

AgriculturalProductivity

Climate

MVs

Soil

Role of Climate Factors

Pearl Millet

Sorghum

Maize

Wheat

Rice

Insignificant

Insignificant

Negative

Positive

Negative

Rainfall Temperature

Negative

Negative

Negative

Positive

Positive

Preliminary results of a cross-sectional regression of the major crop yields on rainfall and temperature using district-level data in 1987 in India.

One example of future findings.

Construction of Panel Data

2000s|

1989

1988|

1956

Agricultural IP/OP

(5 major crops)

Other Controls(Popden/agL/culL/wage/literacy)

Edaphic(Iype/Aquifer thi

ckness/p-H/Topsoil thic

kness)

Climate(Temperature/

Rainfall)

District-level(271 districts)

Avg. of 30yrs

Given the panel, you can see the fluctuation

Infrastructure(Irrigation/

Road)

Some input pricescan be a proxy

Probably it is not so difficult to find recent data, but

problems may be the unavailability of consistent district-level data over the long period.