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IEEE Communications and Aerospace Engineering Societies. 08-24-2004. Ethernet Everywhere! How IP and Ethernet are driving the converged market. Today’s speaker: John J. Peters, Executive VP of Engineering Performance Technologies Inc. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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www.pt.com
Today’s speaker: John J. Peters, Executive VP of Engineering
Performance Technologies Inc.
BSEE 81’ Rochester Institute of Technology
Email: [email protected]
IEEE Communications and Aerospace
Engineering Societies08-24-2004
Ethernet Everywhere!Ethernet Everywhere! How IP and Ethernet are driving the converged market
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Ethernet Network
Internet Protocol (IP)
Consumer electronics
Computing
How IP and Ethernet are driving
The Converged Market!!!
What is this lecture about?What is this lecture about?
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Questions that will be examined…..Questions that will be examined…..
What exactly is the converged market?
Is the converged market a so called “inflection point”?
Why are technologies such as Ethernet and IP enablers?
How will the market be reshaped as a result of all this?
How will product design and innovation be influenced?
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What is the “converged market”What is the “converged market”
“The converged market is the merging of consumer electronics and computing. These traditionally independent business segments will be brought together in such a way as to be dependant on each other for vast new waves of products, services and applications.
For the 1st time in history these markets will be linked and have the potential to provide value to customers, far in excess of what they could achieve individually.”
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Is this an Is this an “inflection point”?“inflection point”?
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What is a “Strategic Inflection point”?What is a “Strategic Inflection point”?
Andy Grove former CEO, Intel Corp
Book: “Only the Paranoid Survive” By Andrew S. Grove
“A strategic inflection point is a time in the life of a business when fundamentals are about to change. Strategic inflection points can be caused by technological change but they are more than technological change.”
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“These days you can’t succeed as a company if your consumer led - because in a world so
full of constant change, consumers can’tanticipate the next big thing.
Companies should be idea-led and consumer-informed!”
Doug Atkin, partner, Merkley Newman Harty
Customers do not always drive this!Customers do not always drive this!
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Inflection Points = “Divergent Convergence”Inflection Points = “Divergent Convergence”
The act of creating new markets or products from seemingly divergent technology and/or applications.
In plain English: The whole is far greater that the sum of the parts.
Most found in industries that are ‘fast movers”. Can often be explosive and create whole new sectors. Often, market timing is critical. “Planetary alignment” Can be better visualized using the “Wheel of fortune”
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MPEG
Video
DISK
DRIVELINUX
Network
Interface T i V O
“Wheel of Fortune” Letters = new technologies and/or new applications
Technology and application timing = letter turning
As more letters are turned, new product/market ideas emerge
Successful companies, recognize new product/markets (words) 1st
EXAMPLE:
Invention of the Personal Video Recorder (i.e. TiVO)
Realizing new market opportunities is like… Realizing new market opportunities is like… Playing!
10XM Radio
PCGPS ?Pilot Weather Advisor
Another example:Another example:
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Converged marketConverged market 55 key factors: key factors:
(some of which are divergent)(some of which are divergent)
1. Economic Recovery
2. Content Digitization
3. Broadband Deployment
4. Ethernet in Home
5. Bandwidth Demand
WHY
WHATHOW
WHERE
WHEN
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Factor #1:Factor #1: Economic Recovery = Economic Recovery = whywhy
High Technology limbo, no revenue = no investment
Pent up demand (3 years) by customers for new products
Economic recovery for high tech = new products/services
“Divergent” technology development has continued forward
Time for “convergent” innovation is ripe and necessary
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Factor #2:Factor #2: Content Digitization = Content Digitization = whatwhat
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Music
PhotosVideo
Radio
TV
Consumer industry as it was…..Consumer industry as it is becoming!
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1st time in history ALL entertainment content is digital. Can be shared, copied, transmitted, altered, stored etc. Sharing of content the norm, if not totally legal yet….. Genie not going back into bottle, the rules must change. Change = opportunity but what will be the new market be? Revenue opportunities for both intra- and inter- net apps. Can we move the “content bits” in, about and out of the
home, office and world? Is the infrastructure in place?
Factor #2:Factor #2: Content Digitization (key points)Content Digitization (key points)
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Factor #3:Factor #3: Broadband Growth = Broadband Growth = howhow
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Availability is no longer an impediment Multiple choices: Cable, DSL, Sat, wireless 802.ah (EFM) and 802.16 (metro-WiFi) coming Once tasted, user’s want more and don’t go back Applications catering more and more to broadband “Always On” will be just as important as speed Parallels between broadband and electrical power
Factor #3:Factor #3: Broadband Growth (key points)Broadband Growth (key points)
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Factor #4:Factor #4: Ethernet in the Home = Ethernet in the Home = wherewhere
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A set of protocols at the datalink (OSI L2) and physical layers (OSI L1)
Invented by Bob Metcalfe, May 22, 1973 (see copy of memo above)
Developed by Xerox in the late 1970s
Promoted and used by Dec, IBM and Xerox in 1980s (DIX)
Rapid growth early on due to Novell and Netware in the early 1980s
Became an IEEE standard in 1985 - 802.3
Currently used in about 80-90% of all LANs
11stst, what , what isis Ethernet? Ethernet?
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What What isis Ethernet Ethernet becomingbecoming??
“That’s what this thing is that they call Ethernet - a business model. Buy some today.”
Bob Metcalfe
Electronic Design, December 9, 2002
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Enterprise
(802.3ab/u)
“Ethernet”
Metro-wireless
(802.16)
“fixed wireless”
ESAN
(PICMG 2.16)
“Backplane”
Ethernet-in-the
First-Mile (EFM)
(802.3ah) Metro-wired
(802.3ae)
“10 Gig”
So….why Ethernet in the Home?So….why Ethernet in the Home?
Factory Floor
(Industrial)
Home Network
(802.11a/b/g)
“wireless”
FUTURE?Storage Area
Networks (SAN)
(iSCSI)
FUTURE?Embedded Market
(chassis)
cPSB/aTCA
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Resistance is Futile!
Ethernet Everywhere!Ethernet Everywhere!
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To many, IP and Ethernet are To many, IP and Ethernet are synonymous.synonymous. 95% of the world’s data
travels on a form of Ethernet at some point
87% of all networks worldwide are Ethernet
154 million switched Ethernet ports sold in 2002 alone
22 million home networks today, 65 million by 2007
6.8 million 802.11 units shipped to home in 2002, 33 million by 2006
11.6 million 802.11 units shipped to enterprise in 2002, 99 million by 2008
95% of all notebooks will have wi-fi in 2004.
IP is the Internet and is becoming the Intranet in the home.
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Mom and Dad
Son
Daughter
Ethernet in the Home (wired/wireless)Ethernet in the Home (wired/wireless)
The 3 PC family!
Printer
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Son’s PCDaughter’s PC
How Ethernet (WiFi) will change the home?How Ethernet (WiFi) will change the home?
Mom and Dad’s home SERVER
Printer
Dad’s work Notebook
Mom’s PocketPC
Family TV
Kitchen TV
Family AV system
Security
Camera
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Next great “land claim” for the networking industry Ethernet firmly entrenched both in home and enterprise Wireless promotes easy adoption and provides mobility Significance lies in standardization, cost and availability Today: Home PCs are networked and on the Internet Tomorrow: The home is an extension of the Internet
Factor #4:Factor #4: Ethernet in the Home (key points)Ethernet in the Home (key points)
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1230
50100 120 130
200 300 400 500 600
2000
6000
20000
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
IP T
elep
hony
Text
e-m
ail
Sta
tic w
eb b
row
sing
Sof
twar
e do
wnl
oads
Vid
eo T
elep
hony
Hi-F
i Aud
io S
trea
min
gIn
tera
ctiv
e TV
Mul
timed
ia w
eb b
row
sing
Des
ktop
AS
P
Vid
eoco
nfer
enci
ngO
nlin
e ga
min
g
Rea
l-tim
e m
ovie
s
Rea
l-tim
e sp
orts
Hig
h-de
fin T
V
Kbit/s
today
near future Future
applications
will demand
far more
bandwidth
Factor #5:Factor #5: Bandwidth Appetite = Bandwidth Appetite = whenwhen
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Factor #5:Factor #5: Bandwidth Appetite (Key points)Bandwidth Appetite (Key points)
e-mail > web > music > photos > video > gaming > TV And….of course the largest consumer of all….SPAM The home server will provide vast amounts of content The ability to store fosters a natural desire to share Current broadband not sufficient for the types of content Technologies like EFM are natural to provide bandwidth Think of bandwidth as a service: 110 vs. 220 etc.
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ReviewReview of of 55 key factors: key factors:
1. (WHY) Economic Recovery
2. (WHAT) Content Digitization
3. (HOW) Broadband Deployment
4. (WHERE) Ethernet in Home
5. (WHEN) Bandwidth Demand
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Let’s tie this all together….Let’s tie this all together….
“The economic recovery is dependant on the industry's ability to deliver both to, throughout and beyond the home, vast amounts of bandwidth intensive Digital Content. This “Converged Market” represents the next Strategic Inflection Point for the collective consumer and commercial electronics industries.”
J. Peters
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Let’s think out of the box……Let’s think out of the box……
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““Near” real time content deliveryNear” real time content delivery
• Daily music uploads
• Morning newspaper
• “To do” list review
• e-mail listening
• Audio books
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What if?What if?
IP = EP? Metering vs. bulk? Everywhere! Content was pay per use vs. pay to own? Routing was based on “time alive” (GPS)? The home = the enterprise (client/server) Homes supply as much content as they take?
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Thank You!