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TOCSIN: Work package 2
B-U Techno-economic Modeling for China and India in the Global Context
Richard Loulou
Maryse Labriet
Amit Kanudia
KANLO
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 2
Participants
• Coordinator: KANLO
• Participants:– UCAMB, IIMVA, TU, HKBU (?)
Documentation on TIMES
• http://etsap.org/documentation.asp• Two-part article containing a summary description of
TIMES and TIAM, available on TOCSIN web site
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 3
Tasks
• Task 2.1: Reference Energy System for China, India, and all other World Regions– Leader: IIMVA (replaced by KANLO); time span: mth1
• Task 2.2: TIMES model for China (includes training mm 1-6)– Leader: TU ; time span: mm 2-16
• Task 2.3: TIMES model for India (includes training mm 1-6)– Leader: IIMVA ; time span: mm 2-16
• Task 2.4: Model energy trades and test World model– Leader: KANLO; time span: mm 6-18
• Task 2.5: Construct interfaces for model and for linkages– Leader: KANLO; time span: mm 1-12
• Task 2.6: Simulations for Policy Analysis– Leader: KANLO ; time span: mm 20-30
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 4
Two key comments
1. Task 2.1 : RES : as agreed earlier, the RES for all regions must be completely uniformized, and compatible with the RES of the existing TIAM model developed by KANLO for ETSAP since 2002, and actively maintained since. (KANLO should lead this task).
2. Tasks 2.2 and 2.3: India and China Models: • will be guided by RES established in task 2.1. • Starting points: the databases already developed in
TIAM. • Leaders of tasks 2.2 and 2.3 will use VEDA interfaces
to review, improve, and refine existing TIAM databases for China and India.
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 5
Common RES
• The following qualitative elements constitute the RES:– List of demands for energy services– List of energy forms (primary, final)– List of emissions
• The following qualitative and quantitative elements are entirely flexible:– Demand projections– Availability of resources of each type– List of technologies in each sector– Technoeconomic characterization of each technology
However: any differences in technological data between regions should be carefully justified, in order to avoid spurious trade effects induced by such discrepancies.
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 6
Sketch of RES in TIAM
Carbon capture
Carbon sequestration
CO2 Terrestrialsequestration
Landfills ManureBio burning,
rice, enteric fermWastewater
Non-energy sectors (CH4)
CH4 options
CH4 options CH4 options
N2O options
Landfills ManureBio burning,
rice, enteric fermWastewater
Non-energy sectors (CH4)
CH4 options
CH4 options CH4 options
N2O options
BiomassPotential
RenewablePotential
WIN SOLGEO TDLHYD
Transformation(refinery,
gas liquef. etc.)OIL***GAS***COA***
Electricity Fuels
ELC***
Power plants
Cogeneration
Heat
BIO***
Nuclear NUC
End Use Fuels
TransportTech.
AgricultureTech.
CommercialTech.
ResidentialTech.
IndustrialServiceCompo-
sition
I***
I** (6) A** (1) C** (8) R** (11) T** (15)
AGR*** COM*** RES*** TRA***IND***
UpstreamFuels
HET
Auto ProductionINDELC
CogenerationINDELCIS**
Hydrogen production and distribution
SYNHYD
BIO***
ELC
BIO***
ELC
HET
ELC
Trade
TradeExtraction
IndustrialTech.
Fossil Fuel Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 7
TIAM: 15 regions
AfricaAustralia-New ZealandCanadaCentral and South AmericaChina
Middle-EastOther Developing AsiaSouth KoreaUnited StatesWestern Europe
Eastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union IndiaJapanMexico
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 8
Schematics of TIAM Climate Module
15 regionTIAM Model
Energysystem
+Non-energy
sectors
GHG EMI
CO2-eq
CONCATM
RADIATIVEFORCING
TSURFACE
CO2
CH4
N2O
etc.CONC
OCEAN UP
CONCOCEAN LO
TDEEP
Cs
σ1
σ1
Exogenous forcing
Tropospheric O3,HFC, SF6
Climate module TIMES Integrated Assessment Model
Reporting & setting targets (concentration, forcing or temperature)
Uncertain parameters
Linearized
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 9
TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (1)Transportation segments (15)
Autos TRT Billion vehicle-km/year
Buses TRB Billion vehicle-km/year
Light trucks TRL Billion vehicle-km/year
Commercial trucks TRC Billion vehicle-km/year
Medium trucks TRM Billion vehicle-km/year
Heavy trucks TRH Billion vehicle-km/year
Two wheelers TRW Billion vehicle-km/year
Three wheelers TRE Billion vehicle-km/year
International aviation TAI PJ/year
Domestic aviation TAD PJ/year
Freight rail transportation TTF PJ/year
Passengers rail transportation TTP PJ/year
Internal navigation TWD PJ/year
International navigation (bunkers) TWI PJ/year
Non-energy uses in transport NEU PJ/year
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 10
TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (2)
Residential segments* (11)
Space heating RH1, RH2, RH3, RH4 PJ/year
Space cooling RC1, RC2, RC3, RC4 PJ/year
Hot water heating RWH PJ/year
Lighting RL1, RL2, RL3, RL4 PJ/year
Cooking RK1, RK2, RK3, RK4 PJ/year
Refrigerators and freezers RRF PJ/year
Cloth washers RCW PJ/year
Cloth dryers RCD PJ/year
Dish washers RDW PJ/year
Miscellaneous electric energy REA PJ/year
Other energy uses ROT PJ/year
* Possible disaggregated demands up to 4 subregions for space conditioning, lighting, and cooking services, in order to take into account geographical variations
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 11
TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (3)
Commercial segments* (8)
Space heating CH1, CH2, CH3, CH4 PJ/year
Space cooling CC1, CC2, CC3. CC4 PJ/year
Hot water heating CHW PJ/year
Lighting CLA PJ/year
Cooking CCK PJ/year
Refrigerators and freezers CRF PJ/year
Electric equipments COE PJ/year
Other energy uses COT PJ/year
Agriculture segment (1)
Agriculture AGR
* Possibly disaggregated demands up to 4 subregions for space conditioning, lighting, and cooking services, in order to take into account geographical variations
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 12
TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (4)
Industrial segments** (6)
Iron and steel IIS Millions tonnes
Non ferrous metals INF Millions tonnes
Chemicals ICH PJ
Pulp and paper ILP Millions tonnes
Non metal minerals INM PJ
Other industries IOI PJ
Other non specified energy consumption
ONO PJ/year
** Each energy service is made up of a fixed or variable “recipe” (mix) of more detailed services: steam (boiler), process heat, machine drive, electrolytic service, other, and feedstock.
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 13
TIAM RES: Energy forms
TO BE PROVIDED
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 14
TIAM RES: GHG Emissions
• CO2 from energy and from industrial processes• CH4 from energy and from agriculture• N2O from energy and from industrial processes
However:
• No abatement options for CH4 from enteric fermentation or from rice and other cultures (about 55% of total CH4 emitted)
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 15
TIAM RES: GHG Emissions and mitigation options
EMISSIONS• CO2 from energy and from industrial processes• Non-CO2 (CH4 and N2O) and non-energy emissions (EMF 21-
22): agriculture, manure, landfills, adipic & nitric acid industry, other industrial processes
Mitigation options available in TIAM– Energy and technology substitution– Specific CH4 and N2O options– Biological absorption of CO2– Capture (electricity and hydrogen) and sequestration of CO2– Demand reduction– No abatement options for CH4 from agriculture (rice), bio
burning, and enteric fermentation (up to 60% of total CH4 emitted)
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 16
RES in TIAM: Trade
• Endogenous trade: coal, crude oil, 4 refined petroleum products, gas, liquefied gas, CO2 (or GHG) permits price and amount of traded energy are endogenous the impact on trade of environmental policies is taken into account may be modified if necessary for TOCSIN
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 17
Interactions within WP2
• KANLO → IIMVA and TU:
– Training in using the VEDA interface – Familiarizing with TIAM database
• TU ↔ IIMVA ↔ KANLO: collaborate on technology data, on energy resources, etc.
• IIMVA , TU → KANLO: provide new improved technology and resource data (using Excel templates)
• All teams: collaborate on interpreting results from model
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 18
Interactions with other WP’s
• With WP1: implementation of policy instruments
• With WP4: Co-design linkage with GEMINI-E3– Preliminary mechanism was devised late 2006 (see next
slide)
• With WP4: Participate in linkage of the TIMES/GEMINI-E3 ensemble with WITCH
• With WP5: participate in analysis of overall results and decide possible feedbacks to TIMES.
• With WP6: participate in dissemination activities
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 19
Preliminary design of TIMES/GEMINI-E3 linkage
GEMINI-E3 TIMES
DRIVERS
DM=DRELAS
DEMANDS
•ENERGY PRICES•TECHNOLOGY MIX•INVESTMENTS
NOTE: Iterations stop when two successive demand vectors are identical
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 20
Milestones & Deliverables
• MS1: Data collection for China and India (mm 1-16), including training in VEDA interface (mm 1-6)
• MS2 and D2.1: China and India Models (Month 16)
• MS3 and D2.2: World Model (Month 18) Should be earlier
• MS4: Runs for policy analysis (Months 18-28)
• MS5: Contribution to final report (Months 24-30)
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 21
Appendices
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 22
List of countries in multi-country regions
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 23
CO2 sequestration
Capture
Power plants Hydrogen plantsIndustry not incl. (iron and steel,cement, ammonia)
Geological, ocean & advanced storage World CUM=4157 GtC
From 4 to 12$/tC
Depleted oil/gas fieldsCoal bedsSaline aquifers (cheapest)Deep ocean+ Mineralization (expensive)
Terrestrial sinksWorld CUM= 98 GtC From 5 to 800$/tC
Forestry, soils
CO2
TransportationFrom 3 to 55$/tC
RemarksSources of data: IEA-ETP, EMF 22 (EPA), literature, IPCC, Of course, many uncertainties (reservoirs and biological processes), risk of leakage, permanence
(Robustmitigation option)
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 24
CH4 options (1)
ACH4MAN01 Farm Scale Digesters-A (cool climate)ACH4MAN02 Farm Scale Digesters-A (warm climate)ACH4MAN03 Farm Scale Digesters-B (cool climate)ACH4MAN04 Farm Scale Digesters-B (warm climate)Not modeled Centralized Digesters (cool climate)
RCH4WLF01 Anaerobic digestion 1 (AD1)RCH4WLF02 Anaerobic digestion 2 (AD2)RCH4WLF03 Composting (C1)RCH4WLF04 Mechanical Biological TreatmentRCH4WLF05 Heat ProductionRCH4WLF06 Increased OxidationRCH4WLF07 Direct Gas Use (profitable at base price)RCH4WLF08 Electricity GenerationRCH4WLF09 Direct Gas Use (profitable above base price) RCH4WLF10 FlaringRCH4WLF11 Composting (C2)
UNCH4OIL01 Flaring instead of Venting (Offshore)UNCH4OIL02 Flaring instead of Venting (Onshore)UNCH4OIL03 Associated Gas (vented) Mix with Other OptionsUNCH4OIL04 Associated Gas (flared) Mix with Other Options
+ Same options for OPEC
UNCH4COA01 Degasification and Pipeline InjectionUNCH4COA02 Enhanced Degasification, Gas Enrichment, and Pipeline InjectionUNCH4COA03 Catalytic Oxidation (US)UNCH4COA04 FlaringUNCH4COA05 Degasification and Power Production – AUNCH4COA06 Degasification and Power Production – B UNCH4COA07 Degasification and Power Production – C UNCH4COA08 Catalytic Oxidation (EU)
+ Same options for OPEC
Manure
Landfill
Primary oil
Coal mining
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 25
CH4 options (2)
UNCH4GAS01 P&T - Use gas turbines instead of reciprocating enginesUNCH4GAS02 Prod-D I&M (Pipeline Leaks)UNCH4GAS03 Installation of Flash Tank Separators (Production)UNCH4GAS04 Replace high-bleed pneumatic devices with compressed air systems (Production)UNCH4GAS05 Replace high-bleed pneumatic devices with low-bleed pneumatic devices (Production)UNCH4GAS06 Dry Seals on Centrifugal Compressors (P&T)UNCH4GAS07 Catalytic Converter (P&T)UNCH4GAS08 Portable Evacuation Compressor for Pipeline Venting (P&T)UNCH4GAS09 Replace High-bleed pneumatic devices with compressed air systems (P&T)UNCH4GAS10 Replace high-bleed pneumatic devices with low-bleed pneumatic devices (P&T)UNCH4GAS11 D-D I&M (Distribution)UNCH4GAS12 D-D I&M (Enhanced: Distribution)UNCH4GAS13 Electronic Monitoring at Large Surface Facilities (D)UNCH4GAS14 Replacement of Cast Iron/Unprotected Steel Pipeline (D)
+ Same options for OPECNot modeled P&T - Compressors-Altering Start-Up Procedure during Maintenance
Prod-D I&M (Chemical Inspection Pumps)Prod-D I&M (Enhanced)Prod-D I&M (Offshore)Prod-D I&M (Onshore)Installation of Electric Starters on Compressors (Production)Installing Plunger Lift Systems In Gas WellsPortable Evacuation Compressor for Pipeline Venting (Production)Reducing the Glycol Circulation Rates in Dehydrators (Production)Surge Vessels for Station/Well Venting (Production)Fuel Gas Retrofit for Blowdown ValveReducing the Glycol Circulation Rates in Dehydrators (P&T)P&T-D I&M (Compressor Stations)P&T-D I&M (Compressor Stations: Enhanced)P&T-D I&M (Enhanced: Storage Wells)P&T-D I&M (Pipeline: Transmission)P&T-D I&M (Wells: Storage)Installation of Flash Tank Separators (P&T)Portable Evacuation Compressor for Pipeline Venting (P&T)Static-Pacs on reciprocating compressors (P&T)Surge Vessels for Station/Well Venting (P&T)
Gas production, transmission and distribution
TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 26
N2O options
Adipic AcidICH4ADI01 Thermal DestructionNitric AcidICH4NIT01 Grand Paroisse - High Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT02 BASF - High Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT03 Norsk Hydro - High Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT04 HITK – High Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT05 Krupp Uhde - Low Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT06 ECN - Low temperature selective catalytic reduction with propane additionICH4NIT07 Non-Selective Catalytic Reduction (NSCR)