To assess the impact of climate To assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop change/variability and develop adaptive responses for the mixed adaptive responses for the mixed grain/livestock production systems grain/livestock production systems

SIMULATION MODELS SIMULATION MODELS CROP/PASTURECROP/PASTURE

DSSATDSSATAPSIM APSIM

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

GCMGCMSensitivity analysys Sensitivity analysys

Scenario based on past changes Scenario based on past changes

INPUTS

CLIMATESOILCULTIVARMANAGEMENT

OUTPUTS

GRAIN YIELD & COMPBIOMASSPHENOLOGYWATER/NITROGEN

PROCESSES

GROWTH &DEVELOPMENTWATER/N BALANCE

CROP/PASTURE MODELSCROP/PASTURE MODELS

MontMonthh

RAINRAIN WetSpeWetSpellll

DrySpelDrySpelll

TMeanTMean TRangeTRange SRADSRAD

   (%)(%) (%)(%) (%)(%) (ºC)(ºC) (%)(%) MjMj

JanJan 1.61.6

1.41.4

1.01.0

1.01.0

0.70.7

1.01.0

-0.4-0.4

0.10.1

0.90.9

0.90.9

-0.8-0.8

-0.5-0.5FebFeb 1.61.6 1.01.0 0.90.9 -0.8-0.8 0.90.9 0.10.1

MarMar 1.31.3 1.01.0 0.90.9 0.70.7 0.90.9 -1.0-1.0

AprApr 1.41.4

1.31.3

1.31.3

1.01.0

1.01.0

0.90.9

0.60.6

0.30.3

0.90.9

0.90.9

0.10.1

0.00.0MayMay 1.51.5 1.01.0 0.90.9 0.10.1 0.90.9 0.00.0

JunJun 1.31.3 1.01.0 1.01.0 0.60.6 1.01.0 -0.3-0.3

JulJul 0.80.8

1.21.2

1.01.0

1.01.0

0.90.9

0.90.9

0.00.0

0.40.4

1.01.0

0.90.9

0.20.2

0.00.0AugAug 1.51.5 1.11.1 0.80.8 0.40.4 0.90.9 -0.8-0.8

SepSep 0.80.8 0.80.8 1.11.1 0.60.6 0.90.9 0.20.2

OctOct 1.01.0

1.31.3

0.90.9

1.11.1

0.90.9

0.90.9

0.90.9

0.10.1

0.90.9

0.90.9

-0.8-0.8

-0.4-0.4NovNov 1.41.4 0.80.8 0.90.9 -0.5-0.5 0.90.9 -0.8-0.8

DecDec 1.31.3 1.01.0 0.80.8 -0.3-0.3 0.90.9 -0.5-0.5

Changes in median values between Changes in median values between 1930-1960 and 1970-2000 used in 1930-1960 and 1970-2000 used in

future scenarios. future scenarios.

Simulated Yield (DSSAT)Simulated Yield (DSSAT)

Sb-S.Rosa0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 1 2 3 4 5Grain Yield (t)

C. P

roba

bilit

y

Actual

F.Month

F.Quarter

Mz-S.Rosa

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Grain Yield (t)

C. Pro

babilit

y

Wh-S.Rosa0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Grain Yield (t)

C. Pro

babilit

y

Scenario based Scenario based on past changeson past changes

    CurrentCurrent F.MonthF.Month F.QuarterF.Quarter

    YieldYield SDSD YieldYield SDSD YieldYield SDSD

MzMz SRSR 91509150 36703670 1238012380 12611261 1140011400 24782478

   PEPE 97809780 27162716 98009800 12931293 1012010120 16491649

   TRTR 89008900 33423342 1053010530 22392239 1185011850 23052305

   MeanMean 92779277    1090310903    1112311123   

   Rel.ChangeRel.Change       1.181.18    1.201.20   

SbSb SRSR 25202520 10721072 35513551 577577 30653065 10651065

   PEPE 30203020 739739 29602960 984984 32403240 924924

   TRTR 23402340 852852 24402440 867867 34403440 707707

   MeanMean 26272627    29842984    32483248   

   Rel.ChangeRel.Change       1.141.14    1.241.24   

WhWh SRSR 37003700 13261326 36103610 16301630 44204420 12761276

   PEPE 50705070 573573 46004600 467467 46404640 495495

   TRTR 46604660 11961196 47504750 11631163 44804480 359359

   MeanMean 44774477    43204320    45134513   

   Rel.ChangeRel.Change       0.970.97    1.011.01   

Future tasks:Future tasks:

•To assess regional impactsTo assess regional impacts•To evaluate other scenariosTo evaluate other scenarios•To improve temperature and radiation in WGTo improve temperature and radiation in WG•To consider mixed systemsTo consider mixed systems

MODELS and MODELS and MIXED SYSTEMSMIXED SYSTEMS

CROPS+PASTURESCROPS+PASTURESROTATIONSROTATIONSLONG TERM ANALYSISLONG TERM ANALYSIS

APSIMAPSIMCROPPING CROPPING SYSTEMSSYSTEMSMODULARITYMODULARITYFLEXIBILITYFLEXIBILITYLONG TERM LONG TERM

ManagerReportClock

SoilWat

SoilNSoilPH

SoilP

ResidueEconomicsFertiliz

Irrigate

Crop 1 Met

Erosion

Other Crops

Crop 3

GRASP

Legume

Crop 2

New Module

Manure

ENGINE

System Control

SoilCrops

Management

Climate

APSIM- GRASP

This module does not simulate root growth, the nitrogen cycle and the effect of increased CO2 concentration.

Rangeland production

Pastures in APSIM

This module is not fully integrated within the APSIM environment. Not suitable for rotations

Development of a new Module to simulate pasture growth

Clover

Species and CultivarSpecies and CultivarSpecific parametersSpecific parameters

Canopy

New Module

competence for light

competence for Water

and Nutrients

Festuce

Intercropping

Development of a new Development of a new Module to simulate Module to simulate pasture growthpasture growth

Rye Grass