TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG Election 2006 Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence

TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG

Election 2006

Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence

2006TVB Forecast Conference

©2005 TNS - Confidential

Located in Arlington, VA

Providing political research since 1997

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Data collection is powered by the most innovative technologies to ensure:

Most accurate capture of activity Fastest processing of information

Supported by political professionals who specialize in political classifications, coding and market factors

Elections 2006

The LandscapeReaching the Voters2006 Forecast

Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page


The Business of Politics2004 Overview

Impact of new laws on increase funds & spendingAs Fundraising increased so did the overall share of Ad Spending

• TV expenditures exceeded $1.7 billion in 2004

More campaigns using TV advertisingThe “permanent campaign”

• Culture of Advocacy– 527s/ Issue groups– Corporate interests (telecom, energy,

healthcare)– Industry associations (PhRMA, EEI,

AHIP, USTA, NCTA)


“The Democrats' project is being considered a new benchmark in the trend toward ‘permanent campaigns,’ which specialists said is transforming the political culture.” The Boston Globe


DemocraticNational

Committee$102,629,936

MoveOn.org$21,946,958

AFL-CIO$9,391,533

Kerry forPresident

$165,478,678

Media Fund

$48,798,388

SEIU$1,257,915

UAW$2,067,448

Stronger America

Now

National Air Traffic Controllers Association

American Family Voices

SierraClub

AFSCME CompareDecideVote

NRDC Real

EconomyGroup

SaveOurEnv

OperationTruth

OperationTruth

CQE$5,901,350

LCV$3,175,405

NDN$2,536,897

LNC HumanRights

Campaign

CampaignMoneyWatch

NEAFund

EnvAcctFund

BringOhioBack

ALDemParty

WinBack

Respect

LogCabinRep

BradyVoter

Ed

NARAL

RealVoices

ThisVote

Counts

SaferTogether

2004

ACTF

MothersOpposing

Bush

JohnYarmuth

Bush forPresident

$188,013,352

ProgressFor

America$21,572,955 RNC

$10,850,764

Swift Boat$14,207,919

CFG$1,737,041

Americans United to Preserve Marriage

LetFreedom

Ring

NRA

GOPFlorida

SofterVoices

SaveAmericanMedicine Citizens

United

MoveAmericaForward

AmericansFor JobSecurity

There is A

Difference

GNORF

AmericansFor PeaceThroughStrength

Breathof Life

WestVirginiafor Life

AmericanPatriots

Coalition

NBHRNHolly

Mosher

IBEWCPE

IVOA

FightBack

Campaign

Truth& Hope

AJDW

GADP

GeorgeMenace

CRAP

NPB

StopNader

Many Moving Parts of Presidential Advertising

$500K – 1 million

$100K – 499K

$20K – 99K

< $10K

Updated 11/11/2004


ELECTIONS 2005

2005 Picked Up Where 2004 EndedTNSMI/CMAG Captured Over 425,000 Ad Airings Over $528 Million in Political and Issue Advocacy Television Advertising Over 2 Dozen 2006 Races On The Air In 20052005 was Truly a Banner Year for Off-Year Political Advertising


2006 Elections

Reaching the Voters



Challenges to Political Advertisers Fragmented TV audience increasingly

difficult to target Media clutter

Ratings do not always identify key political constituencies

Media mix expanding in attempt to bracket consumers

More radio Specifically “top radio” Move away from niche radio, i.e.

Christian Move from direct mail to web/e-mail

Message clutter TV ad production costs decreasing

Longer campaigns Earlier Ads Year-round campaigning (no more off-

years)


“In the wake of the 2000 election, each political party, convinced that its opponent was getting ahead, stepped up its

investments in technology and information-gathering.”-NY Times


Strength Of Commitment To The Registered Party

23.0 20.9 3.053.0

%

Entrenched Average Shallow Convertible

76.0% Committed 24.0% Uncommitted

Read: 53.0% of all respondents are entrenched to their main political party

What the segments mean

AverageCommitted, but not as strongly, some could

convert in the medium term

EntrenchedStrongly committed, unlikely to convert to

another

ShallowUncommitted, should be considered at risk

ConvertibleHighly uncommitted with a significant likelihood

of conversion

n:2478^

Commitment is high among the voters in this market that are registered to a political party• 76% are committed to their party• 53% are in the most committed segment (entrenched) and are hence very unlikely to switch

parties in the near future• Only 3% of the registered voters are at a high risk of switching (convertible)

^Weighted base


23

23

54

53

21

21

3

4

Republican Party(n:1204 )̂

Democratic Party(n:1205 )̂

Strength Of Commitment To The Different Parties

Entrenched Shallow ConvertibleAverage

% Committed

Read: For The Republican Party: 54% of its users are entrenched, 23% are average, 21% are shallow and 3% are convertible Numbers > 0.5 rounded up

Commitment to the Republican Party and the Democratic Party is very similar among their registered voters

• Each party is strong among its users, and both have a similar proportion of committed users

% Uncommitted

*Caution: small base size ^Weighted base

77%

75%

23%

25%


Market Overview – US Commitment Norms


How does the market compare to Conversion Model™ studies worldwide?

• Difficult markets to enter• Not price sensitive• Deserving of advertising to

support the brand

• Easier markets to enter• Price sensitive• Hard to justify brand-building

through advertising

44

50

51

53

56

62

64

66

76

78

79

Telecoms

IT

Mobile Phones

ISP's

Newspapers

Banking

CSD's

This Study:Voting

Dairy Products

Beer

Tobacco


Race to the Finish Line (2004 Election)

84% Of US House and 74% of US Senate Ad Spending in the Last 30 Days99% Of US House and 97% of US Senate Ad Spending in the Last 60 Days$15.5 million spent by 527’s on Senate and House races $140 million Spent on the Presidential Race


Current “Available Voter”/”Campaign Spending” Relationship


Ava

ilabl

e Vo

ters

Jan.Election Year

Nov.

Adv

ertis

ing

Spen

ding

$$$$

$


Media Habits Finding: Trending DataCable (Households with digital cable)

• Democrats 31% • Republicans 27%

Newspaper Readership (Frequent Readers of Daily Newspapers)• Democrats -- 52% (8% NYTimes, 3% WSJ, USA Today 8%) • Republicans – 47% (3% NYTimes, 6% WSJ, USA Today 7%)

Internet Preferences • Democrats -- News, Financial, Entertainment, Shopping, Search, Travel,

Music, Local• Republicans – News, Financial, Shopping, Search, Travel, Medical, Local • 9% visit some type of Blog 8% visit political blogs

Radio Preferences • Democrats – R&B, Classic Rock, Oldies, Public Radio • Republicans – Classic Rock, Oldies, Talk


New Media: More Questions than Answers For Political

“Micro-targeting” with Political Ads In 2004 only 9% of Political and Issue Ad Spending was on Media Outside of Broadcast TV (This is not

including spot cable)The Growing Infatuation with the WebCable TV Network vs. SpotVOD, DVR, TIVO, On-Demand New Media is Growing and Is Becoming More Portable


2006 Elections

2006 Forecast



ELECTION 2006

2006 ForecastBased on the sheer number of open and competitive federal, state, and local races in 2006, as well as increasing contribution limits, TNSMI-CMAG foresees a robust advertising market.Nearly half of the gubernatorial races, 40% of the Senate races, and up to 50-60 U.S. House races are considered “in-play.” Current CMAG projection places year-end spending well over $1 billion, possibly toping 2004 record totals.


2006 Governors Races

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIowaKansasMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichigan

MinnesotaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew MexicoNew YorkOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasVermontWisconsinWyoming


2006 Governors Races

Thirty-six States Will Hold Gubernatorial Elections In 2006Many States Will Have Competitive PrimariesThird-party Spending Will Rival That of The 2004 Presidential RaceRGA was a Leading Fundraiser In 2005Several Key 2008 States Have Governors Races

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIowaKansasMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichigan

MinnesotaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew MexicoNew YorkOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasVermontWisconsinWyoming


2006 Senate Races

New JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth DakotaOhioPennsylvaniaRhode IslandTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

ArizonaCaliforniaConnecticutDelawareFloridaHawaiiIndianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevada


2006 Senate Races

33 Senate seats are up for election in 2006Currently 10-13 Seats “In-Play” Unsettled Political Climate May Increase the Number of Seats “In-Play”527’s Will Be Active in Targeted RacesSelf Funders

New JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth DakotaOhioPennsylvaniaRhode IslandTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

ArizonaCaliforniaConnecticutDelawareFloridaHawaiiIndianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevada


Other Factors 2006-2008

Democrats Campaign to Retake Control of the US House Will Be the Most Aggressive Since 1998, Making a Greater Number of Seats “In-play”State Elected Offices Will Continue To See An Increase In Spending and Length of Advertising Campaigns More Ballot Measures State And Federal Issue Advocacy Ad Spending Will Increase 2008 Presidential Campaign Will Be Historical In Its Length And Cost


Perfect Storm Markets

PhoenixSan DiegoDenverHartfordMiamiTampaAtlantaChicagoCedar RapidsCincinnatiClevelandCharleston Providence

Tri-CitiesPhiladelphiaLouisvilleBaltimoreMinneapolisManchester (NH)CharlotteGreenvilleSeattle Burlington VTOklahoma City


Political and Issue ad Spending

2006TV : Over $160 million In the 1st Quarter ($40 Million Behind 2004 at the same point)Almost $100 million in Issue Ad Spending Dominated by State and Federal Campaigns on Telecom, Tort Reform and HealthcareOver $57 million in Ad Spending on Political Ads: Dominated by Early Primary Spending in TX, NY, CA, IL, TN, OH, VT, RI Historically 90% of US Senate Spending and 80% of US House Spending Happens the last 60 Days


2008 Can’t Wait!

Documents

TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG Election 2006 Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence