©TNS 2014 TNS Medium Gallup Public presentation 04.04.2014. Public opinion poll funded by the EU Public opinion on the EU and European integrations February,

©TNS 2014

TNS Medium GallupPublic presentation 04.04.2014. Public opinion poll funded by the EU

Public opinion on the EU and European integrations February, 2014

©TNS 2014


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Research background

From the year 2010, the Delegation of the EU to Serbia has been conducting, twice a year, public opinion polls on the EU and EU-integrations. Presented are the key results of this year’s first wave:

Attitudes towards the EU and EU-integrations Expected changes after the accession Knowledge and Sources of information about the EU Knowledge of the EU Funds and ProgrammesKey topics

National representative sample of adult (18+) voting population 1239 respondents Territory: Republic of Serbia, urban and rural areas Fieldwork period: 6th-12th of February 2014

(approximately two weeks after the formal start of the negotiation accession process)

Face to face interview (F2F) in home of the respondent; data were collected through Paper and Pencil Interview (PAPI)

Methodology

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1Attitudes towards the EU and EU-integrations

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The European union: first associations

Better life, better future

Negative things only

Nothing

Better standard, higher salaries and pensions, investments, prosperity

Union, EU countries, symbols of EU (flag, stars, euro)

Better chance for employment, work and study in EU

Traveling

Conditions, pressure, blackmail

Law, order, fight against the crime and coruption

Negotiations, accession, stabilization

Loss of national identity, sovereignty

The rich countries that dominate the poor

Utopia, a dream, an unreachable goal

Higher unemployment, worse standard

Fraud, lies, thieves, distrust, skepticism

Recognition of Kosovo, NATO, bombing, Hague

Germany

Other

Do not know / No answer

23%13%

9%7%

6%5%

4%4%4%

3%2%2%2%2%2%2%1%

6%3%

What is your first association when someone mentions the European Union? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS

Positive associations prevail: the most frequent association to EU is better life and better future - reflecting hope for a better living standard. Negative associations are either too general, or related to pressure and conditioning.

Positive associations(Net=43%)

Negative associations(Net=29%)

Neutral associations(Net=19%)

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General attitudes towards the EU Trend

Nov-11 Apr-12 Oct.12 Apr-13 Feb-14

32%

35% 35%

44%

34%

36%

32%33%

29%31% 32%

23%

2% 2% 2% 1% 1%

What is your general feeling about European Union?

Positive Negative Neutral Don't know/no answer

Attitudes of Serbian citizens are more positive and less indifferent. In comparison with April 2013, the number of citizens with positive feelings towards the EU significantly increased, and the number of neutrals decreased.

Wave Nov.11 Apr.12 Okt.12 Apr. 13 Feb.14

Base 1211 1214 1208 1234 1239

44%Positive feelings towards the EU

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Support of Serbia's membership in the EUReasons for and against membership

More than 50% supports the accession – with rational, economy reasons on top of the reason-list: better job opportunities and better living standard. Among opponents, after expectations of a lower standard, emotional reasons (fears) appear: losing national identity, exploitation and conditioning!

Better chance for employment

Better standard

Better future, prosperity

Rule of law, better laws, fight against crime and coruption

Traveling

Education in EU countries

New investments

Other

43%

37%

34%

25%

23%

12%

8%

9%

Reasons FOR support. MAX 3 answers. % of Cases (Only supporters N=680)

Lower living standard

Loss of sovereignty, identity

Exploitation of resources

Conditions, pressure, blackmail

Recognition of Kosovo, NATO bombing, Hague

False promises, distrust

I do not like EU

The EU will soon fall apart

Coruption, crime

Other

45%

21%

19%

16%

12%

7%

4%

2%

2%

20%

Reasons AGAINST support. MAX 3 answers. % of Cases (Membership opponents N=482)

55% fully of mainly supports Serbia’s membership in the EU

39% completely of mainly does not support Serbia’s membership in the EU

66

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The Referendum about joining the EU Trend

Mostly stabile trend. In February 2014, 53% of citizens would vote for Serbia’s accession into the EU. The number of non-voters significantly reduced (indifference is decreasing) in comparison with the previous wave in April 2013.

Wave Jul.10 Dec.10 Nov.11 Apr.12 Oct.12 Apr. 13 Feb.14

Base 1205 1206 1211 1214 1208 1234 1239

Jul.10 Dec.10 Nov.11 Apr.12 Oct.12 Apr.13 Feb.14

51%48%

51% 49% 48%52%

29%33% 31%

34% 33% 31% 31%

9% 10%13%

10%14% 13%

8%11%

9%5%

6%5% 4%

8%

How would you vote on the referendum for Serbia’s accession to the EU?

FOR the accession AGAINST the accession Would not vote Undecided yet 53%for the accession

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Conditions for Serbia’s accession into the EU

Recognition of Kosovo's independenceOverall reforms and harmonization of legislation with the EU

Fight against corruption and crimeReforms of justice system

Dialogue with Pristina, implementation of the Brussels TreatyEconomic stability, decrease of unemployment

Cooperation with The HagueReform of the health care system

Respect for human and minority rightsRule of law

Reform of the state administrationReform of the educational systemThere are always new conditions

Accession to NATOProtection of the environment

We've already fulfilled everythingOther

44%21%

20%12%11%

9%4%

3%2%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%

14%

What do you think are the most important conditions that Serbia needs to fulfill in order to join the EU? OPEN ANSWERS. MAX. 3 ANSWERS. % of Cases

Recognition of Kosovo’s* independence is the most frequently mentioned condition, followed by overall reforms and fight against corruption and crime.

Note: "This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence."

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Support of Belgrade-Priština dialogue Trend

Apr-12 Oct.12 Apr-13 Feb-14

44%51%

63%56%

41%40%

28% 29%

15%9% 9%

14%

Do you personally support the Belgrade-Priština dialogue?

Support (fully+mainly) Do not support (at all+mainly) Don't know/no answer

More than 50% of citizens support Belgrade – Priština dialogue. Still, the number of supporters decreased compared to April 2013, while the number of undecided is significantly rising – indicating more indifference and less involvement.


Base 1211 1214 1208 1234 1239

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Perceptions of Serbia’s position in the accession negotiation process

Serbia will be in a subor-dinate

position56%

All sides will be equal23%

EU will be in a sub-ordinate position

5%

Don’t know/no answer

17%

What will be the position of Serbia in the negotiation process?

Almost 60% thinks that Serbia will be in a subordinate position, and that it is not treated fairly - but treated worse than other countries in region. This is also strongly related to support to the EU accession.

The EU treats Serbia fairly, and ask us only what is

necessary

The EU treats Serbia worse than other countries from our

region

Vast majority of all requests from the EU are for our own

good

56%

31%

44%

30%

55%

40%

13%

14%

16%

Please, for each statement say do you agree or disagree with it

Completely/mainly disagreeCompletely/mainly AgreeDoes not know

79% of those who would vote AGAINST

the EU accession believe in this!

40% of those who would vote FOR the EU

accession believe in this!

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2Expected changes after the accession

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When will Serbia join the EU?

In 2020.

In about 10 years.

Not before 2030.

Never

Don’t know

27%

24%

9%

21%

20%

When do you think Serbia will join the EU?

Around 50% of citizens believe that Serbia will join the EU in next 10 years of earlier, while 21% thinks that it will never happen. Demography and level of information about the EU are corelated with these expectations.

Most hopeful are the supporters of accession: citizens under 54 y.o, people with secondary and higher education, students, those who believe that are well informed about the EU.

Most doubtful are people older than 54 y.o, with primary education, in rural areas, opponents of the accession, who believe that are not well informed about the EU.

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Does membership bring more advantages or disadvantages?

The citizens of Serbia are more likely to perceive benefits for others (citizens of Member States or Serbia itself) - nearly 20% does not know what to expect personally from the EU membership.

13

Much

mor

e ad

vant

ages

Som

ewha

t mor

e ad

vant

ages

Som

ewha

t mor

e di

sadv

anta

ges

Much

mor

e di

sadv

anta

ges

Don’t

know

/no

answ

er

22%

32%

16% 19%11%

24%30%

15%

24%

8%

17%

30%

13%

22%18%

Advantages or disadvantages from the EU membership

For citizens of member states For Serbia For you personally

13

Advantages (average 26%) Disadvantages (average 18%) Do not know (average 12%)

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Expected effects of the EU membership in different areas

Investments coming to Serbia

Protection of the environment

Better salaries and more job opportunities in Serbia and EU

Rule of law

Social welfare/Social protection of the citizens

Export of Serbian products

Respect for human and minority rights

Quality of education

Efficiency of state administration

Conditions for agricultural production

Corruption in public institutions

14%

14%

17%

16%

19%

23%

14%

18%

18%

32%

19%

23%

27%

25%

26%

25%

21%

29%

29%

27%

18%

29%

56%

54%

51%

50%

49%

49%

49%

48%

47%

44%

44%

7%

6%

7%

8%

7%

7%

8%

6%

8%

7%

8%

Please tell me do you expect that the situation in Serbia would get better, stay the same or get worse once Serbia becomes a member of the EU.

Would get worse It would stay the same Would get better DK/NA

Positive effects are expected in almost all areas. There is a certain worry about conditions for agriculture production and export of Serbian products.

©TNS 2014


The level of information about the EU

Around 40% feels sufficiently informed, while almost 50% of citizens feel they lack information about the EU. Active search for information about the EU is very rare.

2%

39%

31%

16%

12%

Do you feel you are sufficiently informed about the way the EU works and advantages and disadvantages of EU membership, or do

you feel you lack information?

Do not know/ No answer

I do not feel well informed at all

I feel poorly informed

I feel well informed

I feel very well informed

47%Insufficiently informed

41%Sufficiently informed

15

Yes, many times4%

Yes, several times5%

Yes, but rarely17%

No 72%

Do not remember 2%

Have you ever tried to find additional in-formation about the EU, other than those

published in the media?

9%actively search for information about the EU

15

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Most needed information about EU accession

Information how ordinary people live in various EU member states

The effects of accession on the economic situation and living standards

Information on what Serbia has negotiated with the EU

Information on the cost of membership in the European Union for the Serbian Budget

Information on health and social welfare system in the European Union

The political consequences of accession

Effects on agricultural production and traditional Serbian food products

Information about European institutions and their roles

Information about the inflow of European funds and how to apply for them

Other

Do not know/ No answer

38%

34%

25%

24%

21%

20%

20%

17%

15%

1%

39%

Mark three areas where you would need more information on Serbian accession to the EU? MAX 3 ANSWERS! % of Cases

Most citizens would like to know how ordinary people live in various EU member states and what will be the effects of the accession on the economic situation and living standards in Serbia. Information on what Serbia has negotiated with the EU are in the third place.

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3EU funds and programmes

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Impressions of Serbian citizens about the largest donors to Serbia - Trend

Nov-11 Apr-12 Oct.12 Apr-13 Feb-14

15%

18%

28%

23%

16%

19%

15%13%

16%

10%

11% 12%10%

13% 13%

9%

10% 9%11%

10%

6% 7% 7% 7%

Who is the largest donor to Serbia? OPEN ANSWER

Russia Japan EU Germany China

Russia has been traditionally considered to be the largest donor, although (till now) it gave only loans to Serbia. Still, impressions are changing and the number of people who believe Russia is the largest donor is significantly decreasing over time.


Base 1211 1214 1208 1234 1239

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Real donors to Serbia from 2000 to 2013

EU Germany USAID Italy Greece Sweden Switzerland Norway Holland Japan China

2,6 billion

1,2 billion

630 million

276 million258 million

214 million 156.6 million156.3 million 123 million 101 million 3.6 million

Grants to Serbia in period 2000-2013, real amounts in €

SOURCE: The Delegation of the EU to Serbia and Serbian European Integration Office

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EU assistance priorities

According to the citizens, agriculture is the priority sector for EU financial assistance, followed by Health system, Development of poor regions, Economic reforms and SME development.

Agriculture

Health system

Development of poor regions

Economic reforms

Business (SME development)

Civil society

Educational system

Transport, bridges, roads

Justice System

Municipalities and Local Self Governments

Environment

Energy

Protection of human and minority rights

Public administration

Don’t know/no answer

67%

46%

44%

40%

36%

24%

23%

22%

16%

13%

12%

11%

8%

3%

27%

Which sectors do you think EU assistance should go to? MULTIPLE ANSWERS

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TNS Medium Gallup | Savski trg 9, Belgrade, Serbia | + 381 11 3613 220 | www.tnsmediumgallup.co.rs

Srbobran BrankovićPresident and [email protected]

Bojana JevtićSenior [email protected]

Slađana BrakusExecutive [email protected]

Thank you!

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Documents

©TNS 2014 TNS Medium Gallup Public presentation 04.04.2014. Public opinion poll funded by the EU Public opinion on the EU and European integrations February,