7
Fri, 25 Oct 2013 Equity Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China 3Q13 results beat 3Q13 results beat with net profit soared by 474% qoq to HK$226mn, fueled by accelerating smartphone penetration from 27% in 2Q13 to 34% in 3Q13 We raise our FY13/14E earnings estimate by 67%/4% to HK$232mn/HK$872mn to reflect faster than expected increase in smartphone penetration, higher margin expansion and economies of scale. Reiterate BUY with TP raise to HK$7.20 from HK$6.30, representing 10x FY14E PE or 25% discount to peers. 3Q13 results beat. TCLC released its 3Q13 results with sales increased by 79% yoy and 38% qoq to HK$5.45bn and net profit soared by 474% qoq from previous mere breakeven to HK$226mn. GPM was improved by 3ppt yoy and 1.2ppt qoq to 19.6%, fueled by accelerating smartphone penetration from 27% in 2Q13 to 34% in 3Q13. TCLC shipped 15.4mn units of handset in 3Q13, of which smartphone shipments jumped 162% yoy and 60% qoq to 5.2mn units. Handset ASP was improved by 22% yoy and 8.6% qoq to US$45.4, and we expect the ASP uptrend is likely sustainable given mid-to-high-end smartphone sales contribution continuously increasing. We revise up our FY13/14E earnings by 67%/4% to HK$232mn/HK$872mn. TCLC showed better than expected smartphone penetration and higher than expected margin expansion, and have successfully improved its brand recognition for its smartphone especially in overseas markets. Its flagship high-end model one touch Idol X enjoys 22% gross margin. Given TCLC’s better operating leverage driven by economies of scale of smartphone business, we revised up our FY13/14E EPS by 67%/4% to HK$0.19/HK$0.72. Reiterate BUY with TP raise to HK$7.20 from HK$6.30, representing revised target PE from 9x to 10x FY14E PE or 25% discount to peers given (1) successful transformed from a featured phone player to a flourishing smartphones player with “step-up” strategy in introducing more advanced smartphone models, (2) continuous ASP and margin improvement thanks to increasing smartphone penetration and (3) peak 4Q shipments ahead. Risk: (1) Price pressure due to intensified market competition may be higher than expected, (2) smartphone penetration may be lower than expected and (3) opex may be higher than expect. Yuji Fung / Cindy Li Analyst / Analyst +852 2135 0236 / +852 2135 0212 [email protected] [email protected] Company Update BUY UNCHANGED Close price: HK$6.06 Target Price: HK$7.20 (+19%) Prior TP: HK$6.30 Key Data HKEx code 2618 12 Months High (HK$) 6.36 12 Month Low (HK$) 2.12 3M Avg Dail Vol. (mn) 4.48 Issue Share (mn) 1,144.40 Market Cap (HK$mn) 6,935.03 Fiscal Year 12/2012 Major shareholder (s) TCL Ind (51.68%) Source: Company data, Bloomberg, OP Research Closing price are as of 24/10/2013 Price Chart 1mth 3mth 6mth Absolute % 23.9 78.2 120.4 Rel. MSCI CHINA % 25.9 71.9 119.2 PE Company Profile TCLC is a handset maker with the brand TCLfor China market and Alcatelfor overseas market. Exhibit 1: Forecast and Valuation Year to Dec (HK$ mn) FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E Revenue 10,653.0 12,031.2 16,708.9 26,857.6 33,167.3 Growth (%) 22.4 12.9 38.9 60.7 23.5 Net Profit 799.9 (207.8) 231.7 871.7 1,171.2 Growth (%) 14.0 (126.0) (211.5) 276.2 34.4 Diluted EPS (HK$) 0.704 (0.176) 0.191 0.720 0.967 EPS growth (%) 11.8 (124.9) (209.0) 276.2 34.4 Change to previous EPS (%) 66.6 3.6 15.6 Consensus EPS (HK$) 0.071 0.413 0.605 ROE (%) 32.7 (8.3) 9.5 29.2 29.2 P/E (x) 8.6 (34.5) 31.7 8.4 6.3 P/B (x) 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.5 Yield (%) 4.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 DPS (HK$) 0.288 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 Source: Bloomberg, OP Research 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Oct/12 Jan/13 Apr/13 Jul/13 Oct/13 HK$ 2618 HK MSCI CHINA 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Dec/07Dec/08Dec/09Dec/10Dec/11Dec/12 Forward P/E Ratio +1std. avg. -1std.

TMT/ China TCL COMM (2618 HK)tclcom.tcl.com/admin/documents/research/1383717637_2618... · 2013-11-06 · Fri, 25 Oct 2013 Equity Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China 3Q13 results

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: TMT/ China TCL COMM (2618 HK)tclcom.tcl.com/admin/documents/research/1383717637_2618... · 2013-11-06 · Fri, 25 Oct 2013 Equity Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China 3Q13 results

Fri, 25 Oct 2013

Equi ty Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China

3Q13 results beat

3Q13 results beat with net profit soared by 474% qoq to HK$226mn, fueled

by accelerating smartphone penetration from 27% in 2Q13 to 34% in 3Q13

We raise our FY13/14E earnings estimate by 67%/4% to

HK$232mn/HK$872mn to reflect faster than expected increase in

smartphone penetration, higher margin expansion and economies of

scale.

Reiterate BUY with TP raise to HK$7.20 from HK$6.30, representing 10x

FY14E PE or 25% discount to peers.

3Q13 results beat. TCLC released its 3Q13 results with sales increased by 79% yoy

and 38% qoq to HK$5.45bn and net profit soared by 474% qoq from previous mere

breakeven to HK$226mn. GPM was improved by 3ppt yoy and 1.2ppt qoq to 19.6%,

fueled by accelerating smartphone penetration from 27% in 2Q13 to 34% in 3Q13.

TCLC shipped 15.4mn units of handset in 3Q13, of which smartphone shipments

jumped 162% yoy and 60% qoq to 5.2mn units. Handset ASP was improved by 22%

yoy and 8.6% qoq to US$45.4, and we expect the ASP uptrend is likely sustainable

given mid-to-high-end smartphone sales contribution continuously increasing.

We revise up our FY13/14E earnings by 67%/4% to HK$232mn/HK$872mn. TCLC

showed better than expected smartphone penetration and higher than expected

margin expansion, and have successfully improved its brand recognition for its

smartphone especially in overseas markets. Its flagship high-end model one touch

Idol X enjoys 22% gross margin. Given TCLC’s better operating leverage driven by

economies of scale of smartphone business, we revised up our FY13/14E EPS by

67%/4% to HK$0.19/HK$0.72.

Reiterate BUY with TP raise to HK$7.20 from HK$6.30, representing revised target

PE from 9x to 10x FY14E PE or 25% discount to peers given (1) successful

transformed from a featured phone player to a flourishing smartphones player with

“step-up” strategy in introducing more advanced smartphone models, (2) continuous

ASP and margin improvement thanks to increasing smartphone penetration and (3)

peak 4Q shipments ahead.

Risk: (1) Price pressure due to intensified market competition may be higher than

expected, (2) smartphone penetration may be lower than expected and (3) opex may

be higher than expect.

Yuji Fung / Cindy Li

Analyst / Analyst

+852 2135 0236 / +852 2135 0212

[email protected]

[email protected]

Company Update

BUY UNCHANGED

Close price: HK$6.06

Target Price: HK$7.20 (+19%)

Prior TP: HK$6.30

Key Data

HKEx code 2618

12 Months High (HK$) 6.36

12 Month Low (HK$) 2.12

3M Avg Dail Vol. (mn) 4.48

Issue Share (mn) 1,144.40

Market Cap (HK$mn) 6,935.03

Fiscal Year 12/2012

Major shareholder (s) TCL Ind (51.68%)

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, OP Research

Closing price are as of 24/10/2013

Price Chart

1mth 3mth 6mth

Absolute % 23.9 78.2 120.4

Rel. MSCI CHINA % 25.9 71.9 119.2

PE

Company Profi le TCLC is a handset maker with the brand

“TCL” for China market and “Alcatel” for

overseas market.

Exhibit 1: Forecast and Valuation Year to Dec (HK$ mn) FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

Revenue 10,653.0 12,031.2 16,708.9 26,857.6 33,167.3

Growth (%) 22.4 12.9 38.9 60.7 23.5

Net Profit 799.9 (207.8) 231.7 871.7 1,171.2

Growth (%) 14.0 (126.0) (211.5) 276.2 34.4

Diluted EPS (HK$) 0.704 (0.176) 0.191 0.720 0.967

EPS growth (%) 11.8 (124.9) (209.0) 276.2 34.4

Change to previous EPS (%)

66.6 3.6 15.6

Consensus EPS (HK$)

0.071 0.413 0.605

ROE (%) 32.7 (8.3) 9.5 29.2 29.2

P/E (x) 8.6 (34.5) 31.7 8.4 6.3

P/B (x) 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.5

Yield (%) 4.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS (HK$) 0.288 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.000

Source: Bloomberg, OP Research

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Oct/12 Jan/13 Apr/13 Jul/13 Oct/13

HK$2618 HK MSCI CHINA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Dec/07Dec/08Dec/09Dec/10Dec/11Dec/12

Forward P/E Ratio

+1std.

avg.

-1std.

Page 2: TMT/ China TCL COMM (2618 HK)tclcom.tcl.com/admin/documents/research/1383717637_2618... · 2013-11-06 · Fri, 25 Oct 2013 Equity Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China 3Q13 results

Fri, 25 Oct 2013

TCL COMM (2618 HK)

Page 2 of 7

Exhibit 2: Revisions in Key Assumptions and Forecasts

FY13E FY14E FY15E

New Old % Chg New Old % Chg New Old % Chg

Shipments (mn)

Mobile handsets and others 49.0 49.0 0.0 51.4 51.4 0.0 54.0 54.0 0.0

ASP (US$)

Mobile handsets and others 43.7 47.9 (8.7) 66.9 66.9 (0.0) 78.7 78.7 (0.0)

(HK$ mn)

Revenue 16,709 18,305 (8.7) 26,858 26,858 (0.0) 33,167 33,167 (0.0)

Gross profit 3,265 3,519 (7.2) 5,451 5,300 2.8 6,768 6,434 5.2

Gross margin 19.5% 19.2% 0.3 20.3% 19.7% 0.6 20.4% 19.4% 1.0

Opex (3,357) (3,692) (9.1) (4,780) (4,647) 2.9 (5,786) (5,622) 2.9

EBIT 232 150 54.3 1,026 1,008 1.8 1,371 1,200 14.2

Net Profit 232 139 66.6 872 841 3.6 1,171 1,013 15.6

Diluted EPS (HK$) 0.191 0.115 66.6 0.720 0.695 3.6 0.967 0.837 15.6

Source: Company, OP Research

Exhibit 3: TCLC 3Q13 result summary

(HK$ mn) 3Q12 3Q13 YoY% 9M12 9M13 YoY% OP Comment

Revenue 3,053 5,454 79% 8,146 11,861 46% ASP improved from US$37.1 in 1Q12 to US$45.4 in 3Q13 thanks to

high-end smartphones

COGS (2,543) (4,383) 72% (6,654) (9,661) 45%

Gross profit 510 1,071 110% 1,492 2,199 47%

Margin 16.7% 19.6% 18.3% 18.5% GPM improved by 3ppt yoy in 3Q13, better than we expected

Other income & gains 139 96 -31% 408 343 -16%

Selling exp (302) (399) 32% (429) (697) 63%

as % of revenue 9.9% 7.3% 5.3% 5.9%

Admin exp (173) (219) 26% (791) (1,054) 33%

as % of revenue 5.7% 4.0% 9.7% 8.9% Operating leverage

R&D (182) (265) 46% (442) (643) 46%

as % of revenue 5.9% 4.9% 5.4% 5.4%

Other opex (27) (42) 56% (78) (73) -6%

Tax (10) 3 -132% (22) 22 -199%

Net profit (87) 226 -359% 18 19 5% Making remarkable profit since it breakeven in 2Q13, promising outlook

Net margin -2.9% 4.1% 0.2% 0.2%

Source: Company, OP Research

Page 3: TMT/ China TCL COMM (2618 HK)tclcom.tcl.com/admin/documents/research/1383717637_2618... · 2013-11-06 · Fri, 25 Oct 2013 Equity Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China 3Q13 results

Fri, 25 Oct 2013

TCL COMM (2618 HK)

Page 3 of 7

Exhibit 4: TCLC shipments (mn units)

TCL Handset and accessories unit sales (mn)

of which:

Smartphone (mn)

Smartphone

contribution (%)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 yoy

2011 2012 2013 yoy mom

2011 2012 2013

Jan 1.20 0.74 2.08 3.13 2.00 3.63 81%

0.01 0.14 0.59 322% -7%

0.2% 7.0% 16.3%

Feb 0.67 0.59 1.45 2.37 2.39 1.91 -20%

0.01 0.27 0.35 30% -40%

0.3% 11.4% 18.6%

Mar 1.50 0.95 2.27 3.21 3.45 2.94 -15%

0.01 0.33 0.51 52% 43%

0.3% 9.7% 17.2%

Apr 1.20 1.01 2.75 3.38 2.92 3.89 33%

0.02 0.37 0.82 123% 62%

0.6% 12.6% 21.1%

May 0.98 0.75 2.77 3.58 3.52 4.20 19%

0.03 0.51 1.11 119% 35%

0.7% 14.4% 26.4%

Jun 1.16 1.02 2.93 3.78 4.33 4.06 -6%

0.10 0.58 1.32 126% 19%

2.6% 13.5% 32.5%

Jul 1.23 1.53 2.91 3.61 2.95 5.01 70%

0.14 0.57 1.41 147% 7%

4.0% 19.3% 28.1%

Aug 1.11 1.38 3.01 3.60 3.63 4.93 36%

0.14 0.64 1.77 145% 26%

4.0% 17.7% 35.9%

Sep 1.21 1.32 3.59 3.79 3.97 5.46 38%

0.20 0.77 2.01 162% 14%

5.2% 19.3% 36.9%

Oct 1.39 2.03 3.85 4.05 4.30

0.20 0.76

5.0% 17.8%

Nov 1.16 2.18 4.38 4.64 5.02

0.24 0.93

5.2% 18.6%

Dec 0.88 2.61 4.25 4.47 4.13

0.27 0.64

6.1% 15.5%

Full Year 13.70 16.12 36.22 43.62 42.61 36.03

1.37 6.52 9.89

3.1% 15.3% 27.5%

OP Target

49.00

17.15

% of OP Target

73.5%

57.7%

Source: Company, OP Research

Exhibit 5: TCLC monthly shipments (mn units)

Source: Company, OP Research

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011 2012 2013 yoy 2013 Smartphone Penetration %)

(mn units)

Page 4: TMT/ China TCL COMM (2618 HK)tclcom.tcl.com/admin/documents/research/1383717637_2618... · 2013-11-06 · Fri, 25 Oct 2013 Equity Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China 3Q13 results

Fri, 25 Oct 2013

TCL COMM (2618 HK)

Page 4 of 7

Financial Summary Year to Dec FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

Year to Dec FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

Income Statement (HK$ mn)

Ratios

Mobile handsets and others 10,653 12,031 16,709 26,858 33,167

Gross margin (%) 21.9 17.4 19.5 20.3 20.4

Operating margin (%) 6.8 (1.9) 1.4 3.8 4.1

Turnover 10,653 12,031 16,709 26,858 33,167

Net margin (%) 7.5 (1.7) 1.4 3.2 3.5

YoY% 22 13 39 61 23

Selling & dist'n exp/Sales (%) 8.1 9.6 8.8 8.0 8.0

COGS (8,325) (9,935) (13,444) (21,407) (26,399)

Admin exp/Sales (%) 5.2 5.5 5.1 4.1 3.7

Gross profit 2,328 2,097 3,265 5,451 6,768

Payout ratio (%) 40.9 (17.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Gross margin 21.9% 17.4% 19.5% 20.3% 20.4%

Effective tax (%) (2.2) (16.9) 8.5 16.5 16.5

Other income 508 543 496 523 571

Total debt/equity (%) 276.8 264.9 240.9 179.6 133.8

Selling & distribution (866) (1,154) (1,470) (2,149) (2,653)

Net debt/equity (%) 4.1 41.3 49.5 34.1 10.1

Admin (558) (658) (851) (1,100) (1,242)

Current ratio (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

R&D (459) (740) (919) (1,343) (1,658)

Quick ratio (x) 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0

Other opex (28) (109) (117) (188) (232)

Inventory T/O (days) 43 46 46 46 46

Total opex (1,912) (2,660) (3,357) (4,780) (5,786)

AR T/O (days) 101 101 101 101 101

Operating profit (EBIT) 925 (21) 404 1,195 1,553

AP T/O (days) 86 105 105 105 105

Operating margin 8.7% -0.2% 2.4% 4.4% 4.7%

Cash conversion cycle (days) 58 42 42 42 42

Provisions 0 0 0 0 0

Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5

Finance costs (140) (166) (151) (151) (151)

Financial leverage (x) 5.4 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.4

Profit after financing costs 785 (187) 253 1,044 1,403

EBIT margin (%) 6.8 (1.9) 1.4 3.8 4.1

Associated companies & JVs (1) (2) 0 0 0

Interest burden (x) 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0

Pre-tax profit 783 (188) 253 1,044 1,403

Tax burden (x) 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8

Tax 17 (32) (22) (172) (231)

Return on equity (%) 32.7 (8.3) 9.5 29.2 29.2

Minority interests (1) 12 0 0 0

ROIC (%) 36.4 (7.8) 5.6 19.7 23.1

Net profit 800 (208) 232 872 1,171

YoY% 14 (126) (211) 276 34

Year to Dec FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

Net margin 7.5% -1.7% 1.4% 3.2% 3.5%

Balance Sheet (HK$ mn)

EBITDA 997 554 755 1,567 1,914

Fixed assets 497 597 963 1,063 1,199

EBITDA margin 9.4% 4.6% 4.5% 5.8% 5.8%

Intangible assets & goodwill 956 1,174 786 414 66

EPS (HK$) 0.704 (0.176) 0.191 0.720 0.967

Associated companies & JVs 2 4 4 4 4

YoY% 12 (125) (209) 276 34

Long-term investments 0 26 26 26 26

DPS (HK$) 0.288 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other non-current assets 317 307 307 307 307

Non-current assets 1,773 2,109 2,087 1,814 1,602

Year to Dec FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

Cash Flow (HK$ mn)

Inventories 981 1,263 1,709 2,722 3,356

EBITDA 997 554 755 1,567 1,914

AR 2,948 3,314 4,603 7,398 9,136

Chg in working cap (722) (102) (579) (1,199) (739)

Prepayments & deposits 870 1,246 1,731 2,782 3,436

Others 14 2 0 0 0

Other current assets 6,267 4,419 4,419 4,419 4,419

Operating cash 289 454 176 368 1,175

Cash 1,187 970 666 762 1,465

Interests paid (131) (177) (151) (151) (151)

Current assets 12,254 11,212 13,127 18,082 21,812

Tax (36) (52) (1) (22) (172)

Net cash from operations 122 224 25 196 852

AP 1,952 2,861 3,872 6,165 7,602

Tax 26 1 22 172 231

Capex (232) (246) (501) (269) (332)

Accruals & other payables 1,431 1,620 2,250 3,617 4,467

Investments (1,049) (1,044) 0 0 0

Bank loans & leases 7,222 5,726 5,726 5,726 5,726

Dividends received 0 0 0 0 0

CB & othe debts 165 113 113 113 113

Sales of assets 51 30 0 0 0

Other current liabilities 519 284 284 284 284

Interests received 141 206 172 169 183

Current liabilities 11,315 10,606 12,267 16,078 18,424

Others 122 3 0 0 0

Investing cash (966) (1,052) (329) (100) (149)

Bank loans & leases 0 194 194 194 194

FCF (844) (827) (304) 96 703

CB & othe debts 0 116 116 116 116

Issue of shares 44 36 0 0 0

Deferred tax & others 39 83 83 83 83

Buy-back (68) 0 0 0 0

MI 4 2 2 2 2

Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0

Non-current liabilities 43 394 394 394 394

Dividends paid (336) (202) 0 0 0

Net change in bank loans 998 807 0 0 0

Total net assets 2,669 2,321 2,553 3,424 4,596

Others (1) 0 0 0 0

Financing cash 637 640 0 0 0

Shareholder's equity 2,669 2,321 2,553 3,424 4,596

Share capital 1,114 1,128 1,128 1,128 1,128

Net change in cash (207) (187) (304) 96 703

Reserves 1,554 1,193 1,425 2,296 3,467

Exchange rate or other Adj 49 (30) 0 0 0

Opening cash 1,345 1,187 970 666 762

BVPS (HK$) 2.40 2.06 2.23 2.99 4.02

Closing cash 1,187 970 666 762 1,465

Total debts 7,387 6,149 6,149 6,149 6,149

CFPS (HK$) 0.107 0.189 0.020 0.162 0.704

Net cash/(debts) (108) (958) (1,262) (1,166) (463)

Source: Company, OP Research

Page 5: TMT/ China TCL COMM (2618 HK)tclcom.tcl.com/admin/documents/research/1383717637_2618... · 2013-11-06 · Fri, 25 Oct 2013 Equity Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China 3Q13 results

Fri, 25 Oct 2013

TCL COMM (2618 HK)

Page 5 of 7

Exhibit 6: Peer Group Comparison

Company Ticker Price

Mkt cap

(US$m)

3-mth

avg t/o

(US$m)

PER Hist

(x) PER FY1 (x)

PER

FY2

(x)

EPS

FY1

YoY%

EPS

FY2

YoY%

3-Yr EPS

Cagr (%) PEG (x)

Div

yld

Hist

(%)

Div

yld

FY1

(%)

P/B

Hist

(x)

P/B

FY1

(x)

EV/

Ebitda

Hist

EV/

Ebitda

Cur Yr

Net

gearing

Hist

(%)

Gross

margin

Hist

(%)

Net

margin

Hist

(%)

ROE

Hist

(%)

ROE

FY1 (%)

Sh px

1-mth

%

Sh px

3-mth

%

Tcl Comm Tech Hl 2618 HK 6.06 894 2.7 (34.5) 31.7 8.4 (209.0) 276.2 (276.6) -0.11 0.5 0.0 2.95 2.72 14.1 10.9 41.3 17.4 (1.7) 9.5 29.2 21.0 73.6

HSI 22,835.82 10.6 10.9 10.1 (2.7) 7.7 4.8 2.27 3.4 3.6 1.44 1.36 13.6 12.5 (1.5) 3.9

HSCEI 10,322.12 8.1 7.6 7.0 6.7 8.9 8.6 0.89 4.0 4.2 1.24 1.14 15.2 14.9 (2.6) 5.6

CSI300 2,400.51 11.6 10.4 8.9 10.6 17.5 14.7 0.71 2.4 2.5 1.64 1.49 14.2 14.3 (1.8) 6.7

Adjusted sector avg* 13.7 16.6 13.6 16.8 25.9 (55.0) 2.54 1.9 1.7 2.73 2.84 7.9 10.6 0.0 16.7 1.7 23.0 20.2 1.3 17.1

China Wireless T 2369 HK 2.89 786 8.5 18.8 13.1 10.1 43.6 29.4 33.2 0.39 1.7 1.6 2.34 2.18 13.4 11.0 0.0 12.0 2.3 15.9 17.6 (9.4) 10.3

Lenovo Group Ltd 992 HK 8.13 10,899 34.3 17.0 14.4 12.5 18.5 15.1 14.7 0.98 2.3 2.5 3.91 3.44 7.3 6.8 0.0 12.0 1.9 25.5 26.0 (1.1) 15.5

Zte Corp-H 763 HK 16.56 8,602 20.3 N/A 25.6 17.2 N/A 49.0 (203.0) N/A N/A 1.0 2.06 1.91 195.1 18.3 38.6 22.2 (3.4) (12.0) 7.6 5.9 23.4

Htc Corp 2498 TT 145.50 4,219 72.6 7.2 N/A 16.2 N/A N/A (122.2) N/A 1.4 1.0 1.50 N/A 4.8 N/A 0.0 20.6 6.2 18.5 N/A 3.9 (14.7)

Apple Inc AAPL US 524.37 476,389 6,341.2 11.7 13.3 12.1 (11.8) 10.0 2.1 6.26 2.2 2.2 3.86 3.82 5.9 6.3 0.0 43.9 26.7 32.1 29.6 7.2 19.0

* Outliners and "N/A" entries are excl. from the calculation of averages

Source: Bloomberg, OP Research

Page 6: TMT/ China TCL COMM (2618 HK)tclcom.tcl.com/admin/documents/research/1383717637_2618... · 2013-11-06 · Fri, 25 Oct 2013 Equity Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China 3Q13 results

Fri, 25 Oct 2013

TCL COMM (2618 HK)

Page 6 of 7

Our recent reports Date Company / Sector Stock Code Title Rating Analyst

24/10/2013 Century Sunshine 509 The three musketeers BUY Min Li/ Jose Xu

22/10/2013 Sunny Optical 2382 Still not the right time HOLD Yuji Fung

21/10/2013 HC International 8292 Upgrade on easing concern on share overhang BUY Yuji Fung

21/10/2013 Fufeng Group 546 Still tasty BUY Tracy Sun

21/10/2013 CHINA FIBER OPTIC

NETWORK

3777 The truth is rarely pure, and never simple BUY Yuji Fung

18/10/2013 Xingda 1899 Raise earnings on robust 3Q demand BUY Vivien Chan

17/10/2013 Antonoil 3337 Maintain positive on 4Q13/14 result BUY Min Li

15/10/2013 Geely Auto 175 Truth behind Sept. sales figures BUY Vivien Chan

15/10/2013 TCL Multimedia 1070 Weak Sept shipment, 3Q13 loss warning HOLD Yuji Fung

11/10/2013 TCL COMM 2618 Unprecedented shipment, 3Q13 positive alert BUY Yuji Fung

10/10/2013 Gold Poly 686 Synergy under China Merchants NR Min Li

07/10/2013 SCUD Group 1399 Company visit note NR Vivien Chan

04/10/2013 GCL-Poly Energy 3800 Margin to further rebound in 2H13 BUY Min Li

26/09/2013 China Animal Healthcare 940 Benefit from sector consolidation BUY Min Li

24/09/2013 China Modern Dairy 1117 Positive JV arrangement for cash flow BUY Tracy Sun

18/09/2013 Biostime 1112 Begin a New Journey BUY Tracy Sun

12/09/2013 Great Wall Motor 2333 Monthly performance in-line HOLD Vivien Chan

11/09/2013 Comtec Solar 712 Mono wafer leading supplier BUY Min Li

09/09/2013 China Singyes Solar 750 Transition won't be easy HOLD Min Li

09/09/2013 Geely Auto 175 Domestic sales bounce back BUY Vivien Chan

09/09/2013 TCL Multimedia 1070 Aug shipment on track HOLD Yuji Fung

09/09/2013 TCL COMM 2618 Smartphone shipment reached record high in Aug BUY Yuji Fung

05/09/2013 Jiangnan Group 1366 Recovery expected in 2H13 BUY Min Li

04/09/2013 China Modern Dairy 1117 Raw milk price, continue to upswing BUY Tracy Sun

04/09/2013 Xiangyu Dredging 871 Expect a strong turn around in 2014-15 BUY Min Li

03/09/2013 Shengli Pipe 1080 Downward trend is unlikely to be reversed in the near

term

SELL Min Li

Historical recommendations and target price: TCL COMM (2618 HK) (as of 24/10/2013)

1 19-Oct-10 BUY, Target price HK$7.47 9 11-Oct-12 HOLD-> SELL , Target price unchanged HK$2.15

2 8-Jul-11 BUY, Target price change HK$9.9 10 29-Oct-12 SELL, Target price change HK$1.80

3 9-Aug-11 BUY, Target price change HK$9.6 11 4-Mar-13 SELL-> HOLD, Target price change HK$2.10

4 11-Oct-11 BUY, Target price change HK$6.58 12 9-May-13 HOLD, Target price change HK$3.20

5 28-Feb-12 BUY-> HOLD, Target price change HK$4.5 13 10-Jul-13 HOLD-> BUY , Target price change HK$4.50

6 10-Apr-12 HOLD-> BUY , Target price unchanged HK$4.5 14 9-Sep-13 BUY, Target price change HK$5.50

7 11-Jun-12 BUY, Target price change HK$3.8 15 11-Oct-13 BUY, Target price change HK$6.30

8 10-Aug-12 BUY-> HOLD, Target price change HK$2.15

0

2

4

6

8

10

Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13

1

2 3

(HK$)

4

5

67

8

910

1112

13

14

15

Page 7: TMT/ China TCL COMM (2618 HK)tclcom.tcl.com/admin/documents/research/1383717637_2618... · 2013-11-06 · Fri, 25 Oct 2013 Equity Research TCL COMM (2618 HK) TMT/ China 3Q13 results

TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES

By accepting this report, you represent and warrant that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agree to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law or termination of such services provided to you.

Disclaimer

Research distributed in Hong Kong is intended only for institutional investors whose ordinary business activities involve investing in shares, bonds and associated securities and/or derivative securities and who have professional experience in such investments. Any person who is not an institutional investor must not rely on this communication.

The information and material presented herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Oriental Patron Securities Limited (“OPSL”) and/or its associated companies and/or its affiliates (collectively “Oriental Patron”) to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

The information and material presented herein are provided for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or a solicitation to sell or an offer or solicitation to buy or subscribe for securities, investment products or other financial instruments, nor to constitute any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities, investment products or other financial instruments.

This research report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Oriental Patron may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. You should independently evaluate particular investments and you should consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities mentioned in this report.

Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Oriental Patron to be reliable, but Oriental Patron makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness and Oriental Patron accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report where permitted by law and/or regulation. Further, opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. Oriental Patron does not accept any liability whatsoever whether direct or indirect that may arise from the use of information contained in this report.

The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this report confirm(s) that (a) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflects his or their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (b) that no part of his or their compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views he or they expressed in this report.

Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.

Oriental Patron, its directors, officers and employees may have investments in securities or derivatives of any companies mentioned in this report, and may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in this report.

General Disclosure

Oriental Patron, its directors, officers and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. Oriental Patron may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of Oriental Patron may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report. Oriental Patron may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment or investment banking service to the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report.

Regulatory Disclosures as required by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission

Oriental Patron (inclusive of OPSL) which are carrying on a business in Hong Kong in investment banking, proprietary trading or market making or agency broking are not a market maker in the securities of the subject companies mentioned in this report. Unless otherwise specified, Oriental Patron does not have any investment banking relationship with the companies mentioned in this report within the last 12 months. As at the date of this report, Oriental Patron do not have any interests in the subject company(ies) aggregating to an amount equal to or more than 1% of the subject company(ies) market capitalization.

Analyst Certification:

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

Rating and Related Definitions

Buy (B) We expect this stock outperform the relevant benchmark greater than 15% over the next 12 months. Hold (H) We expect this stock to perform in line with the relevant benchmark over the next 12 months. Sell (S) We expect this stock to underperform the relevant benchmark greater than 15% over the next 12 month. Relevant Benchmark Represents the stock closing price as at the date quoted in this report.

Copyright © 2013 Oriental Patron Financial Group. All Rights Reserved

This report is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Oriental Patron. Oriental Patron accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

CONTACT

27/F, Two Exchange Square, www.oriental-patron.com.hk Tel: (852) 2135 0236

8 Connaught Place, Central, Hong Kong [email protected] Fax: (852) 2135 0295