TITANIUM THE MATERIAL OF CHOICE FOOR THE NUCLEAR …€¦ · PPL Corporation Susqueha FPL Group Turkey Point – TVA Bellefonte – 2x1 1 Ameren Calloway U n Southern Company Vogtle

TITANTHE MATERIA

FOFOTHE NUCLEAR

Principal Author

Director, BusVAL

4811 EastAnahe

Phone 714-573-1000 FAXE-mail Dennis.Sc

E-mail schE mail schWebb Sit

NIUMAL OF CHOICE OROR RENAISSANCE

r: Dennis J. Schumerth

siness Development LTIMET, Inc. t LaPalma Avenueeim, CA USA

X 714-426-0001 Cell 714-393-1013 [email protected] [email protected]@AOL.comte: Valtimet.com

Proceedings of the

2007 International Titanium Conference October 7 – 9, 2007

Orlando, Florida, USA

Gentlemen, as the lampoonedGentlemen, as the lampoonedthe lampooned inventor of the

internet, the

the lampooned inventor of the

internet, the “hanging chad”,

global warming and other anthropogenic

“hanging chad”, global warming and other anthropogenic p g

climate system forecasting, let me

propose some

p gclimate system

forecasting, let me propose somepropose some

ideas….propose some

ideas….

Continued use of fossil fuels for electric powerelectric power

generation has recently

emerged as the bane gof the industry.

Fact or Fiction??Fact or Fiction??

Green Poweris being

championed aschampioned as the new fuel de jour kid on the

bl kblock.

Fact or Fiction?

E i t li t dEnvironmentalists and other global warming

advocates are successfully lobbyingy y g

their political agendas for emission

caps, carbon sequestration N0x andsequestration, N0x and

S0x andother greenhouse

gas limits.gas limits.Fact or Fiction ?

These effortsThese efforts have resulted in

the outright cancellation, delay or unit reductions of new coal-

fired plants.

Fact or Fiction?

Combined cycle gasCombined cycle gas turbine (CCGT)

units, popularized during theduring the

Enron “gas bubble” era are at

the mercy of yunstable fuel prices.

Fact or Fiction?Fact or Fiction?

Wind biomass hydroWind, biomass, hydro, photovoltaic and other renewables continue to

produce an increased percentage of

the power base but total contribution

remains costly,remains costly, inefficient and pitifully

low.

Fact or Fiction?

Enter TheThe

Nuclear Renaissance

Fact or Fiction?

“TYPICAL”NSSSNSSS

SYSTEM

“TYPICAL”NSSSNSSS

SYSTEM

ReactorBuilding

Turbine/GenBuilding

S fSurfaceCondenser

CURRENTCURRENTU SU.S.

FUELMIX

BREAKDOWN

FuelUsage

Forecast

Advanced Reactor Design

U.S. NRC

g

Advanced Boiling-Water ReactorSystem 80 Westin

AP 600 WestingAP1000 Westing

U.S. NRC Un

General Electric Atomic Energy of Ca

Framatome ANPInternational Reactor Innovative

Pebble Bed Modular RGas Turbine Modular HGas Turbine-Modular H

ns

C Certified

r (ABWR) GE/Toshiba (1300 MW)nghouse (1300 MW)ghouse (600 MW)ghouse (1000 MW)

nder Evaluation

ESBWR 1390 MWanada (AECL) 700 MWP (EPR) 1600 MWe & Secure (IRIS) 335 – 1000 MW

Reactor (PBMR) 165 MWHelium Reactor (GT MHR)Helium Reactor (GT-MHR)

160 NewNew

Power ReactorsReactors

Over TheThe Next 1515

Years

OWNER PROJTXU Corporation Comanche Peak –

Duke Power Cherokee Count

Exelon Clinton

Constellation Energy AREVA – 2x1600 MW

Entergy Grand Gulf Unit 2

Fresno Nuclear Energy Fresno Cou

Alternate Energy Holdings Grandview/Br

Progress Energy Levy County

Progress Energy Harris – 2 x

NRG Energy STP 3 & 4 –

Entergy Nuclear River Be

PPL Corporation Susqueha

FPL Group Turkey Point –

TVA Bellefonte – 2x11

Ameren Calloway Un

Southern Company Vogtle Units 3 &

SCE&G V.C. Summer

JECT

25 to 30New

2x1700 MW (MHI)

ty – 2x1100 MW

n Unit 2 New Power

Reactors

W – Unistar Nuclear

– NuStart Energy

nty / Unistar Reactors Over The

uneau County

– 2x100 MW

x 1100 MW The Next 15

2x1350 MW

nd Unit 2

nna Unit 3 15 Years in the

U S

– 2x1500 MW

100 MW NuStart

nit 2 - Unistar U.S.& 4 – 2x1100MW

– 2x1100MW

WHY & WHY NOT NUCLEATHE CHOICES

AR ??


• The world is either building, planning or proposingThe world is either building, planning or proposing

AR ??

g some 160 new power reactors over the next 15 years.g some 160 new power reactors over the next 15 years.


• The world is either building, planning or proposing

N• Nuclear power has lowered customer service co

AR ??

g some 160 new power reactors over the next 15 years.

ost & increased capacity factors (90% @ 2c/kWh)



• Nuclear power has lowered customer service coNuclear power has lowered customer service co

• New reactors operate w

AR ??


ost & increased capacity factors (90% @ 2c/kWh)ost & increased capacity factors (90% @ 2c/kWh)

with proven technology.



• Nuclear power has lowered customer service co

• New reactors operate w• Spent fuel storage re

AR ??



with proven technology.emains on open issue




• New reactors operate w• New reactors operate w• Spent fuel storage re

• Carbon caps and sequestration

AR ??



with proven technologywith proven technology.emains on open issuen on coal may diminish its luster


• The orld is either b ilding planning or proposing• The world is either building, planning or proposing




• High gas prices are already effec

AR ??

g some 160 ne po er reactors o er the ne t 15 earsg some 160 new power reactors over the next 15 years.


with proven technology.emains on open issuen on coal may diminish its luster

cting the use off CCGT (gas-fired)



N• Nuclear power has lowered customer service co




• The cost of a new nuke will range in the $4,000 to g ,fired plant and 5-7X more than a co

AR ??





$5,000/kW range – more than 3X a comparable coal-, g pomparable CCGT (gas-fired) plant.



• Nuclear power has lowered customer service cop


• Carbon caps and sequestrationCarbon caps and sequestration


• The cost of a new nuke will range in the $4,000 to fired plant and 5 7X more than a cofired plant and 5-7X more than a co

• From application to turbine roll, a construc

AR ??


ost & increased capacity factors (90% @ 2c/kWh)p y ( @ )

with proven technology.emains on open issuen on coal may diminish its lustern on coal may diminish its luster


$5,000/kW range – more than 3X a comparable coal-omparable CCGT (gas fired) plantomparable CCGT (gas-fired) plant.tion interval of 10-12 years is not unrealistic.




• New reactors operate wNew reactors operate w• Spent fuel storage re


• High gas prices are already effec• High gas prices are already effec

• The cost of a new nuke will range in the $4,000 to fired plant and 5-7X more than a co

F li ti t t bi ll t• From application to turbine roll, a construc

• Government and the financial community will hainvestor-owned utility in as

AR ??



with proven technologywith proven technology.emains on open issuen on coal may diminish its luster

cting the use off CCGT (gas fired)cting the use off CCGT (gas-fired)

$5,000/kW range – more than 3X a comparable coal-omparable CCGT (gas-fired) plant.ti i t l f 10 12 i t li tition interval of 10-12 years is not unrealistic.

ave to fiscally embrace both merchant provider and ssistance in cost recovery.

WHY & WHY NOT NUCLEA

• The world is either building planning or proposing

THE CHOICES



• New reactors operate wS• Spent fuel storage re



• The cost of a new nuke will range in the $4,000 to fired plant and 5-7X more than a co


• Government and the financial community will hainvestor-owned utility in as

• Partnering may b

AR ??

g some 160 new power reactors over the next 15 yearsg some 160 new power reactors over the next 15 years.




$5,000/kW range – more than 3X a comparable coal-omparable CCGT (gas-fired) plant.tion interval of 10-12 years is not unrealistic.

ave to fiscally embrace both merchant provider and ssistance in cost recovery. become a requisite.



THE CHOICES


• New reactors operate w• Spent fuel storage rep g



• The cost of a new nuke will range in the $4 000 to• The cost of a new nuke will range in the $4,000 to fired plant and 5-7X more than a co


G t d th fi i l it ill h• Government and the financial community will hainvestor-owned utility in as


C t d il bilit f l f l• Cost and availability of nuclear fuel

AR ??



with proven technology.emains on open issuepn on coal may diminish its luster


$5 000/kW range more than 3X a comparable coal$5,000/kW range – more than 3X a comparable coal-omparable CCGT (gas-fired) plant.tion interval of 10-12 years is not unrealistic.

t fi ll b b th h t id dave to fiscally embrace both merchant provider and ssistance in cost recovery. become a requisite.

i id ti b t t t i tis a consideration but not a constraint.



THE CHOICES





• The cost of a new nuke will range in the $4 000 toThe cost of a new nuke will range in the $4,000 to fired plant and 5-7X more than a co


• Government and the financial community will ha• Government and the financial community will hainvestor-owned utility in as


• Cost and availability of nuclear fuel• Cost and availability of nuclear fuel

• The lawye

AR ??





$5 000/kW range – more than 3X a comparable coal-$5,000/kW range more than 3X a comparable coalomparable CCGT (gas-fired) plant.tion interval of 10-12 years is not unrealistic.

ave to fiscally embrace both merchant provider andave to fiscally embrace both merchant provider and ssistance in cost recovery. become a requisite.

is a consideration but not a constraintis a consideration but not a constraint.

ers will win.

Typical Ste

SteamI l tInlet

6/100

eam Turbine

SteamExhaust

th sec or ~700 MPH

Typical Steam Su

Cooling Water In

rface Condenser

ExhaustSteam to Condenser

Cooling Water Out

OutletOutletCondensate

HOW MUCH WORMATERIAL AN

• 350,000 – 400,000 tons O(35 000 to 44 000 TONS PER YE(35,000 to 44,000 TONS PER YE

RLD MARKET TITANIUM ND WHEN ???????

OVER 10 YEAR PERIODEAR BEGINNING 2010-2012)EAR BEGINNING 2010-2012)


• 350,000 – 400,000 tons O350,000 400,000 tons O(35,000 to 44,000 TONS PER YE

• 22 BILLION USD ($) OV($2,000,000,000/yr.BEG


OVER 10 YEAR PERIODOVER 10 YEAR PERIODEAR BEGINNING 2010-2012)

VER 10 YEAR PERIODGINNING 2010-2012)


• 350,000 – 400,000 tons O(35,000 to 44,000 TONS PER YE(35,000 to 44,000 TONS PER YE

• 22 BILLION USD ($) OV($2,000,000,000/yr.BEG

• Compare this estimate vs. aCompare this estimate vs. ashipment of 110,000 to 120


OVER 10 YEAR PERIODEAR BEGINNING 2010-2012)EAR BEGINNING 2010 2012)

VER 10 YEAR PERIODGINNING 2010-2012)

a Conference world forecasta Conference world forecast 0,000 metric tons in 2010.

CONCLUSIONS – Fact or

• Al Gore will move to California whAl Gore will move to California whFleeFleeFleeFlee

The Electric Power Generation Inrenaissance is underwayrenaissance is underway

• The U.S. NRC will process ~ 25

• Several utilities have ord

• Nuclear power isn’t a perfect aregulated, it needs to be a bigger p

Fiction?

here he will lobby for an all Nuclear here he will lobby for an all Nuclear et.et.et. et.

ndustry will not know if a nuclear for several more yearsfor several more years.

– 30 COL’s. – 160 for the World

ered long lead time items.

answer but safely managed and part of the world’s energy future.



• The Electric Power Generation InThe Electric Power Generation Inrenaissance is underwayrenaissance is underwayrenaissance is underway renaissance is underway

The U.S. NRC will process ~ 25 –

• Several utilities have ord


Fiction?

here he will lobby for an all Nuclear here he will lobby for an all Nuclear et.et.et.et.

ndustry will not know if a nuclear ndustry will not know if a nuclear for several more yearsfor several more yearsfor several more years. for several more years.

– 30 COL’s. – 160 for the World






•• The U.S. NRC will process The U.S. NRC will process ~ ~ 25 25

Several utilities have orde


Fiction?



–– 30 COL’s. 30 COL’s. –– 160 for the World.160 for the World.







• Several utilities have ordSeveral utilities have ord

Nuclear power isn’t a perfect aregulated, it needs to be a bigger p

Fiction?




ered long lead time items.ered long lead time items.






• Several utilities have ordSeveral utilities have ord


Fiction?

here he will lobby for an all Nuclear here he will lobby for an all Nuclear et.et.et. et.



ered long lead time items.ered long lead time items.


References:

1. ASME Standardization NPower Generation”

2. Fortune Magazine – Aug3. Power Magazine – April 4. Nuclear Tourist Website 5 CERA Cambridge Ene5. CERA – Cambridge Ene6. UtiliPoint International 7. Power Engineering, July8 MATERIAL FORECAST8. MATERIAL FORECAST

be considered as an esti9. Forty (40) years of Powe

News – July, 2007 – “Nuclear

gust, 2007 & May, 2007 – May, 2007

erg Research Associatesergy Research Associates

y 2007 T represented by the author shouldT represented by the author should imate only. erGen experience by the author

Documents

TITANIUM THE MATERIAL OF CHOICE FOOR THE NUCLEAR …€¦ · PPL Corporation Susqueha FPL Group Turkey Point – TVA Bellefonte – 2x1 1 Ameren Calloway U n Southern Company Vogtle