Tips to Perform a Ram Study Webinar Presentation_tcm4-539661

7/28/2019 Tips to Perform a Ram Study Webinar Presentation_tcm4-539661

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Victor Borges, RAM Product Manager

Tips to perform a RAM study

DNV Software - Webinar materialFeb 28 2013



©Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.


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AgendaWhat is advanced RAM analysis?Quantitative picture of Performance

DNV solutionTop 5 tips to perform an effective RAM Study





“Defeat is ensured for the one who beforehand does not have all things in order,

people call it misfortune. While victory is ensured for the one who beforehand has

learned to be prepared, people call it luck.”

Roald AmundsenWe call it RAM!

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DNV calls it…





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What is Advanced RAM

Analysis?





What is Advanced RAM analysis?

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What is Advanced RAM analysis?

RAM is a methodology used to predict asset performance for a given configuration in terms of Reliability, Availability and Maintainability

Our products go beyond traditional RAM analysis by adding capabilities related to operationstailored to the Oil and Gas industry which provides as result utilisation and productionefficiency.

Takes into consideration all factors affecting production in order to forecast performance overthe life of the asset

Examples of factors are Equipment Performance, Redundancy, Maintenance Strategies,Logistics, Demand Requirements etc.





Simulation

How it works

- The user specifies a configuration in terms of equipment reliability and dependencies, aswell as the associated asset operations

- By discrete event simulation using a MonteCarlo method, a number of life cycles giventhe specified configuration are simulated

- By performing a large enough number of lifecycle simulations a reliable prediction of the

asset performance is produced

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The benefits with simulation are

- It can be used with process complexities

and uncertainties where exact analyticalsolutions are not possible

- It allows for easy extension of the analysisto include large inventories & sensitivitystudies (‘what-ifs’)

- It highlights the weak links in theconfiguration (equipment criticality) andallows you to optimise asset configurationand operations





Why are we doing this?

Slide 7

Maximizing Plant efficiency / reliability levels Product generation/throughput

Minimizing manning costs

materials costs maintenance work load transportation and support downtime affecting revenue/operating costs

whilst

Maintaining

contractual nominations safety case requirements

and





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Quantitative picture of

Performance





Quantitative Picture Of Performance

Slide 9

Reliability Equipment performance data

(failure frequencies)

System configuration

Maintainability

Maintenance resources

Shift constraints

Mobilization delays

Spares const raints

Availability

Equipment/System uptime





Availability

Slide 10

Pump onPump failed

Pump onPump failed

Pump on

Actual

Pump always on

Potential

Time

%






Slide 11




Maintainability


Shift constraints

Mobilization delays

Spares const raints

Availability


Operability

Plant interdependencies

Plant re-start times

Production/demand rates

Storage Size

Tanker Fleet and Operations

Production Efficiency

Achieved product ion

Production losses

Criticality

Contract shortfalls

Delayed cargoes





Production Efficiency (Utilization)

Slide 12

Time

Production Rate

Pump always on

Potential

Volume

Pump onPump failed

Pump onPump degraded

Pump on

Actual

Volume

%






Slide 13




Maintainability


Shift constraints

Mobilization delays

Spares const raints

Availability


Operability

Plant interdependencies

Plant re-start times

Production/demand rates

Storage Size

Tanker Fleet and OperationsUnit Costs/Revenue

Product price

Man-hour/spares costs

Transport costs

Discount rates

Net Present Value

Lost Profit Opportunity


Achieved product ion

Production losses

Criticality

Contract shortfalls

Delayed cargoes





Operational Expenditure (OPEX) / Lost Revenue

Slide 14

Maintenance

Expenditure Lost Profit Opportunity

Pump onPump off

Pump onPump degraded

Pump on

ActualVolume

Lost Revenue





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Products





Maros

Maintainability Availability ReliabilityOperabilitySimulation program

Tool of choice for analysis of upstream andLNG assets for the past 25 years

In use since 1984 with continuousdevelopment efforts

Provides functionality for modelling of allissues pertinent to process equipment and

units in the upstream market

Features include time varying productionflow profile, multiple products, productionrecovery techniques, tanker exportoperations, financial modelling and more

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Taro

Total Asset Review & Optimization

Specialised for modelling of refinerycomplexes

Developed since in 1995

Provides capability for the integration of shipping and storage into performancemodels

Features include multiple streams, unit

interdependencies, yield rates, blending

rules, advanced storage and more

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Top 5 tips to perform an effective

RAM Study





Top 5 tips to perform an effective RAM Study

1. Definition

- Define the objectives and scope

- Define boundaries for the study

2. Collecting- Collate all required data

3. Preparation

- Prepare a study basis

- Build the model in stages- Verify model operation at each stage

4. Results

- Compare over all results with expectations

- Perform sensitivity analyses- Generate reports

5. Document and archive model files

Slide 19





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Definition





Define Objectives and Scope

Most common objective is “what production efficiency can we expect from this

design”

Some other examples:

- What reliability should we specify for the export compressor?

- What platform availability gives an acceptable overall security of oil supply?

- What is the most cost effective way to improve security of gas supply?

- What is the impact of alternative maintenance strategies?

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Define Boundaries For The Study

Model core system

Can external influences be synthesised or must they be explicitly included

Can we estimate the influence of external factors? If so we can decide which to

include and which to exclude

A good model contains the minimum amount of detail that still yields a valid answeri.e. most complex is not necessarily the best

Slide 22





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Collecting





Collate All Required Data

What is unique to this study??

Reservoir data

Gas sales agreements

Basis of design document

PFDs, P&IDs, schematics, cause and effect charts

Maintenance logistics and strategies

Reliability data

Etc……….

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Reliability data

Getting the right data is a crucial step in a RAM Study

Sources

- Generic Reliability Data

- In-House Reliability Data- OREDA Offshore Reliability Data

- AEA Reliability Databank

- European Reliability Industry Data Bank Handbook (EIReDA)

- RAC Reliability Data books

- CCPS Process Equipment Reliability Database (PERD)

- Cox, Lees & Ang

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Generic data Versus In-house data

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Data Sources Advantages Disadvantages

Generic-published Easy to obtainNon-specific boundaries and

assumptions unknown

Generic-applied Can be produced relativelyquickly

Requires detailed knowledge of

proposed application andfactors influencing reliability

Collected-maintenance data Uses existing records

Many not have data in thecorrect form or detail required,

or sufficient amount of data

Collected-formal scheme

Very detailed reliability

parameters can be obtained onspecific items and in correct

formLong term project in order tocollect sufficient experience





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Preparation





Prepare The Study Basis

Assumptions

Objectives

Description of model to be built

Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)

Data Register

Slide 28





Typical Model Development Path

Slide 29

Final model runs

Run model, review results, reconfigure

Operational considerations

Maintenance strategies

Maintenance resources - manpower, spares, tools

Equipment configuration and reliability data

Flow/Reservoir Deliverability





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Results





Compare Results With Expectations

Can the results be explained?

Are there any areas of unexpectedly low or high criticality?

If necessary generate and check log files to investigate further

Slide 31





Analysis Results

Availability (uptime)


Production Statistics

Complex / Platform / Equipment Criticality

Frequency of Shutdowns

Maintenance Resource Expenditure

Utilization

Slide 32





RAM Applications (Study Types)

Conceptual Design Screening Studies

Facilities Optimization

Detailed Engineering

Development of Operations Reference Plan / Asset Reference Plan

Maintenance Strategy Evaluation (RCM)

Manning Studies

Workload Assessments (e.g. Vessel utilization)

Risk Analysis (e.g. Well Risk)

Slide 33





RAM Applications (Asset Types)

Subsea (Remote & Deep water)

Normally Unmanned Installations (NUIs)

Minimum Manned Platforms

Central Processing Facilities

Onshore Oil & Gas Processing Terminals

LNG Plants

Refinery Unit and Site Optimisation

Co-generation Power Plants

Petrochemical Plants

Slide 34





Life Cycle Performance Analysis

Analysis is not just about producing one availability figure, which can then be quoted

as the performance figure for the development.

Analysis is about a picture of performance (transparency) which the project team canuse to make decisions

Slide 35





Life Cycle Performance Analysis

Performance assessed to a number of criteria - build a picture of performance

Transparency of performance criteria leads to confidence in the assessment

Analysis is best in a comparative assessment of competing designs or operating

scenarios

Utilize sensitivity scenarios to understand risk or uncertainty in the performancefigures

Where absolute figures are required some degree of calibration or benchmarking isrequired

Slide 36





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For further interest, trial version, software demo or aquotation please do not hesitate to contact us:

[email protected]

Best regards,

DNV Software





Safeguarding life, property

and the environment

www.dnv.com

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Tips to Perform a Ram Study Webinar Presentation_tcm4-539661