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Tình hình kinh tế thế giới Tình hình kinh tế thế giới Liệu có trLiệu có trượtượt sâu trong suy thoái? sâu trong suy thoái?
Hiroki ShimazuPhòng Nghiên Cứu Thị Trường
Kinh Tế Gia Cao Cấp
10 August, 2010
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
2
Summary
• Thời kỳ “đen tối” nhất gần như đã lùi lại đằng sau .
• Mặc dù còn nhiều lo ngại, nhưng sự hồi phục kinh tế đang được hỗ trợ bởi chính sách tiền tệ và tài khóa thông thoáng hơn.
• Những nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển sẽ đóng vai trò quan trọng trong kinh tế thế giới
• Chính lược “hiện thực hoá lợi nhuận” áp dụng sớm ở các nền kinh tế phát triển là một trong những rủi ro cho nền kinh tế toàn cầu.
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
3
Mặc dù thời kỳ đen tối nhất đã lùi lại đằng sau, nhà đầu tưvẫn còn lo ngại
Chart. CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sources: CBOE, NY FedNote: All dates don't correspond with the very events.
Gulf War(Aug 1990)
Asian Crisis(Jul 1997)
Russian Crisis(Aug 1998)LTCM Shock(Sep 1998)
Events ofSeptember 11th(Sep 2001)
WorldCombankruptcy(June 2002)
Lehman bankruptcy(Sep 2008)
Hungarian Crisis(Nov 2008)
(CY)
Greek crisis(May 2010)
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
4
Tăng trưởng kinh tế chậm ở Mỹ trở thành một trong những mối lo ngại lớn
Chart. US Real GDP Growth
-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Real GDP Growth RateMoving Average
(QoQ annualized, percent)
(CY)Source: US BEA
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
5
Mức cầu từ doan nghiệp tăng trưởng mạnh hơn, và yếu hơn từ các hộ gia dình
Chart. US Real PCE and the Business Cycles
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1991/1Q
2001/4Q
2009/2Q(estimate)
(trough=100)
Sources: US BEA and NBER (CY)
Chart. US Real Non-residentioal Investment, the Business Cycles
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1991/1Q
2001/4Q
2009/2Q(estimate)
(trough=100)
Sources: US BEA and NBER (CY)
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
6
Tăng trưởng kinh tế Mỹ không còn được hỗ trợ bởi việc chỉnh hóa hàng dự trữ
Chart. US Ratio of Manufacturers' Inventories to Shipments, IP
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Ratio of Inventories to Shipments (LH) Peak of RatioTrogh of RatioIndustrial production (RH)
(percent point) (YoY, percent)
Sources: US Census Bureau and FRBNote: Discontinued since 1993
(CY)
Jul 93
Dec 94
Feb 96
Feb 97
Jul98
Jul 99
Feb01
Apr 02
May 03
Apr04
31mon29ヶ月 33ヶ月
25monJan 90
Dec 92
42mon
22mon
Mar 05
Sep 05
19monOct06
Nov 07
Nov 08
25mon
24mon
26mon 29mon
33mon
24mon17mon
26mon
Jan 10
26mon
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
7
Chu kỳ kinh doanh có xu hướng dài hơn chu kỳ hàng tồn kho
Peak Trough Contraction Expansion T-T P-P
1945/02 1945/10 8 80 88 931948/11 1949/10 11 37 48 451953/07 1954/05 10 45 55 561957/08 1958/04 8 39 47 491960/04 1961/02 10 24 34 321969/12 1970/11 11 106 117 1161973/11 1975/03 16 36 52 471980/01 1980/07 6 58 64 741981/07 1982/11 16 12 28 181990/07 1991/03 8 92 100 1082001/03 2001/11 8 120 128 1282007/12 2009/6(?)
17 38 55 5610 57 67 67
Souce: NBER
Chart. US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
1854-2001 (32 Cycles)1945-2001 (10 Cycles)
Reference Dated Duration in Months/Cycle
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
8
GDP được kéo bởi việc đầu tư vào nhà ở trong ngắn hạn
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
100(「谷」= )
(出所)米商務省、NBERより、日興コーディアル証券作成 (年、四半期)
Chart. US Real GDP Around the Shortest Expansion
7580859095
100105110115120125130135
80 81 82 83
Real GDPPCEResidential InvestmentNon-residential InvestmentExport
(1980/3Q=100)
Sources: US BEA and NBERNote: Shadow indiates the recession.
(CY)
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
100(「谷」= )
(年、四半期)
Chart. US Real GDP Around the Second Expansion
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
58 59 60 61
(1958/2Q=100)
Sources: US BEA and NBERNote: Shadow indiates the recession.
(CY)
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
9
Các điều kiện thuận lợi được duy trì, đặc biệt với các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển
• Chính sách tiền tệ– Chính sách tiền tệ thông thoán hơn ở các nước phát triển có
khả năng lan rộng ra toàn cầu và bù đắp cho chính sách thắt chặt ở các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển
• Chính sách tài khóa- Mặc dù các nền kinh tế Châu Âu bắt đầu thắt chặt chính sách
tài khóa, các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển vẫn cần tiếp tục dùng nguồn lực trong nước đầu tư vào cơ sở hạ tầng
• Thay đổi cấu trúc– Sự phát triển của tầng lớp trung lưu và thượng lưu ở các nên
kinh tế thứ 3 cũng là một yếu tố tích cực
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
10
Tốc độ tăng trưởng tại các nền kinh tế thứ cấp cao hơn ở các nền kinh tế cao cấp
Chart. Real GDP Indices
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
08 09 10
India IndonesiaBrazil KoreaAustralia NZCanada NorwayaUS FranceJapan SpainGermany ItalyUK
(2008/2Q=100)
(CY)Source:OECD
Emerging&
Developing
Advanced
Commodityexporters
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
11
Các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển tiếp tục đóng vai trò quan trọng hơn
Chart. World GDP Growth Rate (Based on PPP)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Contribution of Emerging & DevelopingContribution of Advanced
(YoY, percent)
(CY)Source: IMF; Wourld Economic Outlook Database
Projections
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
(GDPshare, percent)
Source: IMF; Wourld Economic Outlook DatabaseNote: GDP is based on PPP
(CY)
Projections
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1019
90
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
(前年比、%)
(年)I MF(出所) より、日興コーディアル証券作成
I MF予測
Chart. Advanced vs. Emerging and Developing Economies
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Advanced Economies
Emerging and Developing Economies
(GDPshare, percent)
Source: IMF; Wourld Economic Outlook DatabaseNote: GDP is based on PPP
(CY)
Projections
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
12
Sự tăng trưởng kinh tế toàn cầu càng thuận lợi hơn với khu vực đồng tiền chung Châu Âu
IncomeTerm
PriceTerm
Adj-R2 DW
0.747 -0.2531.457 -0.494
(31.955) (2.893)0.993 -0.0791.768 -0.141
(47.010) (0.775)0.436 -0.6361.146 -1.671
(16.870) (5.490)0.638 -0.9091.859 -2.650
(11.396) (8.304)0.583 -0.0961.471 -0.242
(14.553) (0.981)0.469 -0.5311.488 -1.683
(7.270) (3.356)0.823 -0.2321.420 -0.401
(6.125) (1.110)0.451
0.160
Spain
0.987 0.304
0.991 0.608
0.935 0.443
0.871
0.2760.971
EMU
Germany
France
Italy 0.316
Japan
0.952
0.963
Chart. Export Function Estimates
US
Sources: OECD, IMF, US Census Bureau, Statistical office Germany,Insee(France), INS(Italy), Cabinet Office(Japan)Notes: Periods;From 1999/1Q to 2009/4Q, Quataryln(EX) = Const + α ln(WTR) + β ln(REXPP)WTR: Volume of World TradeREXPP: Relative Export Price in USD
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
13
Việc“hiện thực hóa lợi nhuận” sớm làm giảm tính thanh khoản là một rủi ro với sự hồi phục kinh tế toàn cầu
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80(前年比、%) (前年比、%)
Chart. World Dollar
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
(YoY, percent)
(CY)Source:FRBNote: World dollar = US Base money + US treasury securities in custody for foreign official and international accounts
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at
present and writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
14
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This document introduces or explains various systems and frameworks related to, among others, law/taxation, share valuation, inheritance/business succession, shareholder relations/finance strategy, offerings, M&A/IPO, pensions/insurance or related schemes or other matters, or explains, verifies, etc., the effects of the foregoing, and does not constitute an informational document related to financial instruments for the purpose of soliciting financial instrument or other transactions. You will be responsible for any fees, remuneration, expenses and other payments arising from your transactions or performances in accordance with the information set forth in this document. Please be aware that if you execute a financial instrument or other transaction, you may be required to pay a stipulated fee for the applicable instrument (e.g., at our branch or office, with respect to a Japanese financial instrument exchange-listed shares (excluding sales of shares that constitute less than a unit), a service fee of up to 1.2075% of the stipulated purchase price (but not less than 5,250 yen; all amounts inclusive of taxes), or with respect to an investment trust, sales fees, trust charges and other costs applicable to each fund. When purchasing a bond in an offering, secondary sale or private transaction, you will pay only the purchase price (you may be required to pay accrued interest separately from the purchase price). Additionally, when exchanging a foreign currency denominated instrument into amounts in Japanese yen or another foreign currency, the exchange rate will be the rate determined by Nikko Cordial based on the foreign currency exchange market (please note that transaction fees through Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc. differ from those through Nikko Cordial).
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