Timothy M. Smith Director, Initiative for Sustainable Enterprise Associate Professor, Bioproducts & Biosystems Engineering University of Minnesota MIT/Ford/Shell

Timothy M. SmithDirector, Initiative for Sustainable Enterprise Associate Professor, Bioproducts & Biosystems EngineeringUniversity of Minnesota

MIT/Ford/Shell Research Workshop Dearborn, MIJune 9, 2009

Sustainable Biofuels: Baselines, Uncertainties & Values

©2008 T. M. SmithCenter for Sustainable Enterprise Development, University of Minnesota

The really big questions…

• How do we feed and secure energy for 9 billion people, while…

– Stabilizing global climate change?

– Protecting important (high-value) ecosystems?

– Reducing poverty and income disparity?

• “Science” alone can’t provide the answers!


Sustainable Biofuels• Federal & State Policy:

– Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) adopted by EPA to implement provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

– State-level blending mandates, renewable portfolio standards and low carbon fuel standards (CA,11 Northeastern states and 9 Midwestern states pursuing these policies)

– Waxman-Markey, American Clean Energy and Security Act

– Biofuels Interagency Working Group (Obama initiative; May 9, 2009)

• Voluntary Standards Development:

– Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels

– Sustainable Biodiesel Alliance

– Biofuels and Sustainable Development (with Global Bioenergy Partnership)

– SCS-001/ANSI - Draft National Standard

– IEA – Task Force 40

– National Biofuels Action Plan – USDA


Examples of Advantages and Disadvantages of Biofuels

Advantages of Biofuels:

Reduction of imported crude oilRenewabilityRural developmentUse of waste materialReduction in greenhouse gas

emissions

Disadvantages of Biofuels:

Energy intensive productionRunoff of agrochemicals to waterUse of limited water suppliesThreatened and endangered speciesIncreased soil erosionLand conversion effectsIntroduction of invasive species

(Currant 2009)


Global Biofuel Blending Targets and Production

• U.S. Ethanol (2022)*:

• Prod: 15.3 – 17.1 bil. Gallons; approx. 2.5 times 2008 levels

* EIA 2008


Biomass in the U.S. (A. Milbrandt 2005)

• Top 5 Biomass States:

Iowa 8.3%

Illinois 6.7%

MN 6.2%

Missouri 4.4%

ND 4.1%

Top 5 29.5%

• Minnesota:

Expected to produce 1.7 – 2.1 billion “advanced biofuels” by 2022 (Smith & Suh 2008)

Would need all crop residues, switchgrass from CRP and forest residues!!!

©2008 T. M. SmithCenter for Sustainable Enterprise Development, University of Minnesota | UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA, Department of Bio-based Products

(Wisner 2007)


Global Biofuel Blending Targets and Production

• U.S. Ethanol (2022)*:

• Prod: 15.3 – 17.1 bil. Gallons; approx. 2.5 times 2008 levels

• Imports: 2.4 – 3.1 bil. Gallons; approx. 5 times 2008 levels

• EU (2020):

• Require 20-50% imports to reach 2020 blending target

• Sept 2008 – target amended to 4 percent from today’s crop-based biofuels.

• 45% GHG savings over fossil fuels rising to 60% in 2015.

• Latin America (2017):

• BrazilArgentinaColombia CBI

Feedstock for 30 bil. gallons

per year**

* EIA 2008; **Kline and Oladosu (2008)


Sustainability Impacts of Biofuels

• Fossil Fuel Use and Depletion

• Net Energy Balance

• Global Warming


Environmental Impacts of Biofuel Feedstocks


Environmental Impacts of Biofuels



• Global Warming

• Land Use


Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt

(Fargione et al. 2008)

Region Feedstock Land conversion from…

Years to repay carbon debts

Indonesia and Malaysia

Palm Oil Lowland tropical rainforest

86 years

Indonesia and Malaysia

Palm Oil Tropical peatland rainforest

420-840 years

Brazil Soybean Amazonian rainforest

320 years

Brazil Sugarcane Cerrado sensu stricto (woodland savanna)

17 years

Brazil Soybean Grass dominated Cerrado biome

37 years

US Corn Central Grasslands

93 years


Lifecycle GWP of Renewable Fuels

(EPA-420-F-09-024, May 2009)


EPA Lifecycle GHG Emission Reduction Results for Renewable Fuels

(EPA-420-F-09-024, May 2009)


Environmental Impacts of Biofuels



• Global Warming

• Land Use

• Air Quality

• Food-for-Fuel

• Soil Quality

• Water Quality

• Water Availability

• Biodiversity

• Invasive Species

• Socio-Economic Aspects


Non GWP Environmental Impacts

(Zah et al. 2007)


The Promise of Algae?

(Muhs et al. 2009)

Water, Energy & Costs


Carbon Intensity of Petroleum Transport Fuels

• Typical Baseline Values used:

- Gasoline: 92 – 97 g/CO2e/MJ

- Diesel: ≈ 82 g/CO2e/MJ

• Point estimates from 95 - 115 g/CO2e/MJ

• Uncertainty brings the petroleum baseline to a potential 90 - 130 g/CO2e/MJ depending on:

- Overseas vented natural gas- Oil sands processing tech.- Treatment of co-product electricity from cogeneration- Method used to determine refinery emissions- Treatment of residual oil and coke co-products Unnasch. S., et al. (2009).


Concluding Thoughts• Policy will play a major role in sustainable biofuels development, but

not the only role.

• Private voluntary standards and certifications will attempt to address the multiple trade-offs difficult for governmental policies to address.

• We are very early in the process… criteria and implementation mechanisms are far from being determined – let alone “standardized” within a handful of “winning” (legitimate) private governance initiatives.

• Nearly as much uncertainty exists within extant petroleum-based systems as developing bio-based systems (access, security, transport, land-use change, process technologies, etc.).

• Time horizons matter

• Much more work is needed to create the data infrastructure and institutions necessary to handle multiple viable/credible sustainability standards/policies for biofuels.

• Any normalization or weighting of environmental/social/economic factors feeding standards (policy or market driven) are subjective and based on the stakeholders engaged in decision-making.


Questions and Contact

Tim Smith

612.624.6755

[email protected]

Documents

Timothy M. Smith Director, Initiative for Sustainable Enterprise Associate Professor, Bioproducts & Biosystems Engineering University of Minnesota MIT/Ford/Shell