Timing the Market with Timing the Market with Exchange Exchange

Traded Funds Traded Funds andand

OptionsOptions

Presented byPresented by

Don Vialoux, CMTDon Vialoux, CMT

www.dvtechtalk.comwww.dvtechtalk.com

www.timingthemarket.cawww.timingthemarket.ca

dvialoux@dvtechtalk.comdvialoux@dvtechtalk.com

Yes, You Can Time Yes, You Can Time Equity MarketsEquity Markets

• Tools neededTools needed– Fundamental analysisFundamental analysis– Technical analysisTechnical analysis– Seasonality analysisSeasonality analysis

• Buy and hold strategies no longer Buy and hold strategies no longer are workingare working

• The current 16 year cycle suggests The current 16 year cycle suggests that Buy/Hold is unlikely to work until that Buy/Hold is unlikely to work until the next decadethe next decade

Why Time the Market?Why Time the Market?

How to Time the How to Time the MarketMarket

• Play intermediate swings lasting 5 – Play intermediate swings lasting 5 – 15 months using seasonality 15 months using seasonality analysisanalysis

Seasonality AnalysisSeasonality Analysis““Buy when it snows, sell when it goesBuy when it snows, sell when it goes””

For Canadian stocksFor Canadian stocks• Buy at the end of October, sell at the end of Buy at the end of October, sell at the end of

MarchMarch

For U.S. StocksFor U.S. Stocks• Buy at the end of October, Buy at the end of October,

sell at the end of Aprilsell at the end of April

Sector SeasonalitySector Seasonality

• Canadian Energy SectorCanadian Energy Sector– From the end of Jan. to the end of MayFrom the end of Jan. to the end of May– Number of gains during past 10 periods: 9Number of gains during past 10 periods: 9– Average gain per period: 11.7%Average gain per period: 11.7%

How to InvestHow to Invest

• Own energy stocks or iUnits on the Own energy stocks or iUnits on the TSX Energy sector (XEG)TSX Energy sector (XEG)

• Complete covered call writes using Complete covered call writes using XEG callsXEG calls

• Complete cash secured put writes Complete cash secured put writes using XEG putsusing XEG puts

Sector SeasonalitySector Seasonality

• Canadian Gold SectorCanadian Gold Sector– From the end of Jan. to the end of MayFrom the end of Jan. to the end of May– Number of gains during past 10 periods: 7Number of gains during past 10 periods: 7– Average gain per period: 9.0%Average gain per period: 9.0%

How to InvestHow to Invest

• Own Canadian gold producer stocks Own Canadian gold producer stocks or own iUnits on the TSX Gold Index or own iUnits on the TSX Gold Index (XGI) (XGI)

• Complete covered call writes using Complete covered call writes using XGD callsXGD calls

• Complete cash secured put writes Complete cash secured put writes using XGD putsusing XGD puts

ContactsContacts• Don VialouxDon Vialoux

www.dvtechtalk.comwww.dvtechtalk.com

• Listed OptionsListed Optionswww.m-x.cawww.m-x.ca

• Exchange Traded FundsExchange Traded Fundswww.iunits.comwww.iunits.com

QuestionsQuestions

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this presentation are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to

purchase or to sell mentioned securities. They should not be considered as recommendations made by Mr. Vialoux,

the Montreal Exchange, or Barclays Global Investors.