Tim Osborn

7/27/2019 Tim Osborn

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Community Resilience: Critical Needs for

Community Resilience

Tim Osborn

NOAA


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TODAY

The Future Generations Face

Today


5/29

HURRICANE ISAACAug. 26 Sept. 5, 2012


6/29

Hurricane Ike Surge Event at

Cameron Parish, Calcasieu

Pass and

Hurricane Isaac Surge Event

at St Bernard Parish at ShellBeach and the MRGO


7/29

Hurricane Isaac Impacts inSoutheast Louisiana

Storm surge 6 to 12 feetRainfall 10-20 inches locally higherHistoric river flooding eventTwo potential dam compromises

warnings/evacuations with eachThree tornadoes on the MS coast

including an EF-2 in Pascagoula

Over 12,000 homes flooded

including7,000 in LaPlace alone4 fatalitiesAround 1 million power outages


8/29

Hurricane Isaac Storm Surge Flooding


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11/29

Evacuation of Entergy Utility Trucks from Port Fourchon with the Approach of Hurricane Ike- A

Category 2 Hurricane that Made Landfall in Southeast Coastal Texas

Source- Robby Wilson, Port Fourchon

Old Highway LA-1

New Elevated Causeway

of LA-1 Connecting Port

Fourchon to the New

Leeville Bridge


12/29

South Lafourche

Levee District Levee

Southern Extent

During Hurricane Ike

South Lafourche

Flood Gate now

converted to a Lock

Flooded Homes outside

South Lafourche Levee

District Levees and

Flooded Highway LA-1

to Port Fourchon and

Grand Isle Hurricane Ike Inundation South Lafourche Parish


13/29

NWS SLOSH storm surge model

Weak Tropical Storms at Port Fourchon

Will Inundate LA 1 to the Point of Closure- Source NWS New

Orleans Baton Rouge Category 0 Storm Surge Slosh Ouput.

Grand Isle

Port Fourchon

GallianoWater level reference to

datum - NAVD88


14/29

Hurricane Ike Flooding Eastern Louisiana


15/29

Caminada Headland Inundated by

Tropical System, July 2010


16/29

Sea Level in Lousiana is Rising Relative to the

Land at a Rapid Rate

Note: The tide gauge record at Grand Isle contains components of global sea

level rise, regional oceanographic change, and regional local vertical land motion.


17/29

NOAA OAR, 2012. Global Sea Level Rise

Scenarios for the United States National

Climate Assessment, NOAA Technical Report

OAR CPO-1, NOAA Climate Program Office,

Silver Spring, MD, December 2012, 29pp.

http://www.cpo.noaa.gov/reports/sealevel

The high scenario shows global sea level rise

by 2100 of 2.0m (about 6.5 ft.);

an intermediate high scenario of 1.2m

(about 4 ft.);

an intermediate - low scenario of 0.5m

(about 1.6 ft.);

and a low scenario of 0.2m (0.7 ft.)
http://www.cpo.noaa.gov/reports/sealevelhttp://www.cpo.noaa.gov/reports/sealevel


18/29

The National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the authority of the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990.

The GCRA requires a report to the President and the Congress every four years that integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of

the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The Act requires assessment of the effects of global change (both human-

induced and natural) on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation,

human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity. The time periods for analysis include current conditions as

well as projections of major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.National climate assessments provide status reports about climate change science and impacts. They are based on observations

collected across the country as well as research that uses projections from climate system and other models. The NCA incorporates

advances in the understanding of climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems, and provides integrated analyses of

impacts and vulnerability.

The NCA integrates scientific information from multiple sources and highlights key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge. It also

helps the federal government prioritize climate research investments that will provide science for use by communities around the

country to plan more sustainably for our future.
http://assessment.globalchange.gov/http://assessment.globalchange.gov/


19/29

Morganza Reach J-2 Alignment


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A l i F t C t l


22/29

Analyzing Future Coastal

Landscape Changes and

the Threats to CoastalShores, Island,

Infrastructure and

Communities

Access to Port FourchonUsing Louisiana Highway

LA-1


23/29

Sea Level in Lousiana is Rising Relative to the

Land at a Rapid Rate

Note: The tide gauge record at Grand Isle contains components of global sea

level rise, regional oceanographic change, and regional local vertical land motion.


24/29

Estimated Effects of RSLR on Frequency and Duration of Inundation for Leeville, LA

using observations 1987-1990 and then projecting this 4-year time period forward usingpresent rate of sea level rise

Using 5% LA-1 elevation of

0.78m NAVD88 (1993)

Occurrences of

Inundation(over 4-years)

Duration of Inundation(over 4- years)

Elevation RiseAbove 1990 MSL

4-yr Time Period

RSLR rate

mm/yr) (# of tides)

(hours (percent of total

time)) (meters)

1987- 1990 9.24 0 0 (0%) -

2027-2030 9.24 124 960(6%) 0.32047- 2050 9.24 1127 19163(55%) 0.6

2097- 2100 9.24 1334 33699(96%) 1.0

Portions of Louisiana will become increasingly inundated even if the

present day relative sea level rise (RSLR) remains constant in the future.

Note: NAVD88 elevations for bench marks and for LIDAR elevations for road surface are only estimates

and have significant uncertainty

U S D H S


25/29

U.S.D.H.S.

performed an

Assessment of

Consequences

of Disruptionsto LA 1 in 2011.

$7.8 billion of

loss GDP is at

risk


26/29


27/29

Climate models project acceleration in Sea Level Rise starting before

2100 due to climate change


28/29

Source- LSU Center for Coastal Studies


29/29

Resiliency-

CommunityTied to

Community

Tied to The

State Tied to

the Nation

Documents

Tim Osborn