Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

  • Upload
    ciopar

  • View
    217

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    1/30

    Developing a Winning System for

    Trading High-Performance Stocks

    TIM CHO

    TCI CORPORATION

    www.tcicorp.net 800-992-4625

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    2/30

    Trading plan

    1. Select high performing stocks

    2. When to buy and when to sell

    3. Money management

    4. Risk management

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    3/30

    1. EPS rank 90 or higher

    2. Relative strength (RS) 90 higher

    3. SMR rank A

    4. Accumulation/Distribution (ACC/DIST) AOr if accumulation/distribution (ACC/DIST) is B,

    timeliness must be an A ranking to select thestock

    5. Timeliness A

    Or if timeliness is B, accumulation/distribution(ACC/DIST) must be an A ranking to select the

    stock

    6. Group relative strength 85 or higher

    7. Number of outstanding shares 200 million orless (the lower the better)

    8. Float 175 million or less (the lower the better)

    9. Growth rate (annual compound) 25% or higher

    10. Consecutive yearly earnings increase (min. 2years)

    11. Strong earnings estimate (next two years) 20%or higher if earnings estimate only available for

    one year; increase consecutive yearly earningsincrease to (min. 3 years)

    12. Earnings increase last 2 quarters 25% or higher

    13. Last 4 quarterly sales increase 20% or more

    14. No debt or very low debt (less than 30%)

    15. Top 3 stocks in the same industry possess highRS rankings 90 or higher

    16. Funds and banks own total of 5% or more

    www.tcicorp.net

    www.tcicorp.net

    Stock selection CriteriaStock selection Criteria Long PositionLong Position

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    4/30

    #1. EPS rank 90 or higher

    www.tcicorp.net

    www.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    5/30

    #2. Relative strength (RS) 90 or higher

    www.tcicorp.net

    www.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    6/30

    #3. SMR rank A

    www.tcicorp.net

    www.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    7/30

    #4. Accumulation/Distribution (ACC/DIST) AOr if accumulation/distribution (ACC/DIST) is B,

    timeliness must be an A ranking to select the stock

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    8/30

    #5. Timeliness A

    Or if timeliness is B, accumulation/distribution(ACC/DIST) must be an A ranking to select the stock

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    9/30

    #6. Group relative strength 85 or higher

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    10/30

    #7. Number of outstanding shares 200 million

    or less (the lower the better)

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    11/30

    #8. Float 175 million or less

    (the lower the better)

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    12/30

    #9. Growth rate

    (annual compounded) 25% or higher

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    13/30

    #10. Earnings increased from previous year

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    14/30

    #11. Strong earning estimate(next two years) 20% or higher

    if earnings estimate only available for one year; increase

    consecutive yearly earnings to minimum 3 years

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    15/30

    #12. Earnings

    increase last 2

    quarters 25% or

    higher

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    16/30

    #13. Last 4 quarterlysales increase 20% or

    more

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    17/30

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    18/30

    #15. Top 3 stocks in the same industry possess

    high RS rankings 90 or higher

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    19/30

    #16. Funds and banks own total of 5% or more

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    20/30

    Stock selection CriteriaStock selection Criteria Short PositionShort Position

    1) EPS rank 35 or lower

    2) Relative strength (RS) 35 or lower

    3) SMR rank c, d or e

    4) Accumulation/distribution (Acc/Dist) D or E

    5) Timeliness D or E

    6) Group relative strength 45 or lower

    7) Growth rate (annual compounded) 10% or lower

    8) Earnings estimate (next two years) 5% or lower

    9) Earnings increase last 2 quarters 5% or lower10) Last 4 quarterly sales increase 5% or lower

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    21/30

    Stock selection for trading both sides of

    the market (long and short)The system is designed to trade any stock that

    moves in big trading ranges, up and down. The more

    volatile the stock, the better the system will perform.

    Look through Dailygraphs; use any stock that has abig trading range moving up and down. Input the

    stock into the TCI SOFTWARE and look at the

    historical spreadsheet on the performance of the

    stock. If the performance looks good and you feel thestock will continue to be volatile, you may want to

    select the stock to trade.

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    22/30

    The Most Important Element

    to Trading Success:

    Knowing When to buy

    and when to sell

    System Trading

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    23/30

    Stocks, S&P futures and NASDAQ futures markets historical time cycle correlation

    Market Bias (Use the previous days cash market data of S&P 500, NASDAQ and DOW JONES) Use

    the lowest and the highest price between 14:00 to the end of 14:29 time period as the goalpost, look for

    the first break out within the next 30 minute (between 14:30 to 14:59)

    Market condition Use %D on the daily chart 0 to 40 over sold, 41 to 60 neutral and 61 to 100 over

    bought.

    Market direction Use %D on the daily chart and the bend direction is the market direction.

    Time frames when major institution and big market player come into the market (stocks, S&P futures

    and NASDAQ futures market) between 14:30 to 15:00, (S&P futures and NASDAQ futures market) at15:40 and again at 15:45 to 16:15

    Most major economic news announcements are at 8:30AM and 10:00AM EST.

    Best intraday trading (long and short position) move: EST 10:00 to 11:00 and 14:30 to 16:00

    Best swing trading (long position) performing days of the week Monday, Wednesday and Friday

    Best swing trading (long position) performing days of the month First 3 days and last 4 days.

    Best swing trading (long position) performing months of the year November, December and January

    Best swing trading (short position) performing months of the year February, June, September and

    October

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    24/30

    Money Management

    1. The total trading capital for day trading should be no more than

    5% of your trading assets.

    2. The total trading capital for swing trading should be no morethan 25% of your trading assets.

    3. The total trading capital for long term trading should be no more

    than 50% of your trading assets.

    4. The increase of trading capital goalpost is based on 50%

    reinvestment of your gross profits.

    5. The key to success is discipline; keep your trading capital small

    until you develop your skill to move up to the next level. Youhave to earn your way up. Our goal is to use the powerful

    compounding trading mathematics to build your account size.

    Everyone has a different timetable to develop the trading skills.

    To be successful in trading you need to have a plan to defeatthe market. The system is a part of the plan, but before you

    trade you have to know your limitations. Everyone has a

    different timetable to develop the skills to control the emotions oftrading.

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    25/30

    What are the most common mistakes most traders make?

    % Loss of Trading Capital % Gain Required to Be Even

    5%

    10 %

    15 %

    20 %25 %

    30 %

    35 %

    40 %

    45 %

    50 %

    55 %

    60 %

    5.3 %

    11.1 %

    17.6%

    25 %33.3 %

    42.9 %

    53.8 %

    66.7 %

    81.8 %

    100 %

    122 %

    150 %

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

    Failure to cut loses

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    26/30

    What Are The Most Common Mistakes Most Traders Make?

    A) Trading before acquire the necessary knowledge and education

    B) Trading more money than they should Lack of discipline and patience

    C) Lack of money management and risk management skills

    D) Increase position size after losses to try and make it back

    E) Trading with negative emotions

    F) Basing trading success on winning trades vs. losing trades.

    G) Trading without a proven trading plan, a proven system or a provenmethodology.

    H) Taking small profits and letting losses run: the primary rule to successful

    trading should be cutting your losses short and let your profits run.

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    27/30

    What is a successful traders psychological make up?

    A) Commitment

    B) High level of discipline

    C) High level of self-control

    D) Financially stable

    E) Know your limitations

    F) Self-motivated, driven and have a burning desire to

    succeed G) Patience

    H) Meticulous, detail oriented

    I) Positive thinker

    J) Decision maker - Have the aptitude and the ability to make

    sound decisions K) Leader

    L) Persistence

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    28/30

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

    What characteristics are needed to be a successful trader?

    1) High level of discipline - follow the trading rules:

    a. Cut losses.b. Let profits run.

    c. Keep trading capital small.d. Follow all the system rules.

    2) High level of self-control

    3) Financially stable

    4) Know your limitations

    5) Self-motivated, driven and have a burning desire to succeedS

    6) Controlled emotionsC

    7) Patience

    8) Meticulous, detail oriented

    9) Positive thinker

    10) Decision maker - Have the aptitude and the ability to make sounddecisions

    11) Leader

    12) Commitment

    13) Persistence

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    29/30

    www.tcicorp.netwww.tcicorp.net

    A) Lack of discipline Guarantee you will fail

    B) Lack of self control

    C) Lack of commitment

    D) Afraid to make decisions

    E) Under capitalized

    F) Out of control type, or overly aggressive individualG) Highly and easily stressed individual

    H) Negative thinker - negative outlook on life and always expecting the

    worst

    I) Likes to blame others when things go wrong

    J) DisorganizedK) Impatience

    L) Crowd follower - this is a sure way to lose money

    M) Compulsive gambler

    What individual characteristics are not suited for trading?

  • 7/25/2019 Tim Cho - Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks

    30/30

    TCI CORPORATION

    www.tcicorp.net800-992-4625