Tim BeechieNOAA Fisheries, Seattle

Incorporating climate change intorestoration planning

The ESA salmon context

• ESA legal context

– Salmon recovery planning and climate change

– Consultations and climate change

• NOAA science efforts address:

– Vulnerability of populations

– How do we adapt restoration plans and actions to be successful despite climate change?

Adaptation: decision support framework

• Q1: What habitats limit salmon recovery?

• Q2: Does climate change alter habitats limiting recovery?

• Q3: Does the restoration plan reduce climate change effects?

• Q4: Does the restoration plan increase habitat diversity and salmon resilience?

Watershed assessment

How have habitats changed and altered biota?

Habitat conditions

Salmon

Humans

Landscapeprocesses

Watershed assessment

Habitat conditions

Salmon

Humans

Landscapeprocesses

What are the root causes of habitat change?

How have habitats changed and altered biota?

The restoration plan

• A restoration plan should: – Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines

– Generate a list of needed restoration actions

– Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population

Beechie et al. 2013

The restoration plan

• A restoration plan should: – Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines

– Generate a list of needed restoration actions

– Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population

Beechie et al. 2013

Climate change assessment

Habitat conditions

Salmon

Climatechange

Landscapeprocesses

How does climate change affect all of this?

How have habitats changed and altered biota?

Summer rearing sensitivity

<10°C

14-18°C

10-14°C

18-22°C

22-26°C

>30°C

26-30°C

Below threshold

Near threshold

Above threshold

Ameliorating climate change effects

• Literature review to see if restoration actions can: – Reduce a peak flow effect?

– Reduce a low flow effect?

– Reduce a stream temperature effect?

Beechie et al. 2012

Increasing resilience

• Literature review to see if restoration actions can: – Increase habitat and species diversity so the ecosystem

can better withstand climate change effects?

Beechie et al. 2012

Increase habitat diversity

Levee

Mainstemhabitatsonly

Mainstem

Pond

Floodrefuge

Groundwaterchannel

Side-channel

Waples et al. 2009

Restoration actions and climate change

Restoration action Temperature increase

Low flow decrease

Peak flow increase

Increase resilience

Longitudinal connectivity Y Y N Y

Floodplain connectivity Y N Y Y

Restore incised channel Y Y Y Y

Restore in-stream flow Y Y N N/Y

Riparian rehabilitation Y N/Y N N

Sediment reduction N N N N

In-stream habitat N N N N

Nutrient enrichment N N N N

Restoration actions and climate change

Restoration action Temperature increase

Low flow decrease

Peak flow increase

Increase resilience

Longitudinal connectivity Y Y N Y

Floodplain connectivity Y N Y Y

Restore incised channel Y Y Y Y

Restore in-stream flow Y Y N N/Y

Riparian rehabilitation Y N/Y N N

Sediment reduction N N N N

In-stream habitat N N N N

Nutrient enrichment N N N N

Closing points Q1: Identifying the most important restoration actions

is critical for cost-effective restoration

Q2: Climate change may alter the importance of key restoration actions

Q3: Many restoration actions can reduce climate change effects on stream flow or temperature

Q4: More connectivity and more dynamics are important for ecosystem resilience to climate change