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Colm CareyTIBCO NOW 201804-06 Sep 2018 – Las Vegas, Nevada
AA Ireland - Combining Advanced Data Analytics and Complex Event Processing using TIBCO
1910AA begins service in Ireland
1924Service revived in Ireland after ‘troubles’ end
1911AA signposting of Irish main roads
1950Membership reaches 19.5k
1945AA handling Int. driving licenses for Irish State
1983AA launches Home Start – 81k Members
1977AA Launches Car & Home Insurance
1989AA Roadwatchservice launched
2000AA launches aaireland.ie & aaroadwatch.ie.– 300k customer base
AA Ireland – A Short History
2016AA Ireland separates from parent company
2010AA turns 100 – 600k customer base
AAI Vision Statement & Data Value Optimization Phases
“Optimise business efficiency and customer engagement, whilst maximising data value with real time business insights by ensuring data is compliant, clean, accurate and trusted with easy access and readily available for all.”
DATA VALUE
DataCollection Reactive
Post Event
Analysis
PredictiveAnalyses(Machine Learning)
Self-Learning
Algorithms (AI)
BusinessOptimization
(Optimization/Neural Network)
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
1.4 Data Quality
1.1 Vision and Strategy
1.5 Data Security
1.2 Data Governance
2.1 Fraud Engine
1.3 Price Optimisation
2.2 Segmentation
3.2 MDM
2.3 Lifecycle Management
3.1 Capacity Prediction
2.4 Reporting & Analytics
2.5 Data Infrastructure
Real Time PricingTrusted
Data
Compliance
2.2 CRM
Customer InsightsTrusted
Data
Compliance
Business EfficiencyTrusted
Data
Compliance
1.6 Data Standardisation
AAI Data Vision Statement:
Data Value Optimization Phases
Software Options – Why TIBCO
Industry Standard Software
Industry standard – comfort & stability
Already began to build Pricing solution –staff familiar with software
Safe option – trusted software – process orientated
Out of the box software – rigid
Lack of scalability (software) – Pricing solution only
TIBCO Software
Huge opportunity– think it, build it (holistic)Very powerful/event based – Predictive MI/Fraud/Segmentation /CRM
IT Enterprise Service team building on TIBCO – big fans
TIBCO very supportiveControl – power for business people
Resource required to build – project timingsHybrid resource (Quant/Pricing/Developer/UAT)IT/Pricing/Quant responsibilities & governance
Ongoing resource requirements Uncertainty – what if goes wrong?
Implementation – Staffing and Training
How to enable a team of Quantitative Analysts to build our solutions
• Started with TIBCO Training in Spotfire and StreamBase
• Consultants were on site during the start of the project and helped with:• Architecture design, • Building the first StreamBase flows, • Writing and integrating TERR scripts,• Setting up Spotfire Reports,• … and they taught team members in the process!
• Ring-fenced team and good communication between different teams within the company is crucial
Pricing/
Analytics
IT Enter-prise
Service
UAT
Solution Design - Now
Insurer Schemes
Policy Administration
TheAA.ie
Inte
grat
ion
Plat
form
(BW
6, E
MS)
StreamBase/TERR
Datawarehouse
Data Store (Models, Reports)
Spotfire Server
Automation Services
Pricing/Analytics
team
Auto Data Banding
Optimal Pricing
e.g. age “37” becomes “30-39”
Live pricing and automatic model
performance report - re-fit once
a week
“Did the model change?”
“Which customers are affected, and
how?”
Solution Design – Optimised Pricing in Detail
Quotewith max.
Commission
SegmentData
(GLM)
Randomised Discount Flex
Set Base Discount
Final Price
Output
ONLINE
Re-fit Predictive Model and Send
Segmented Report
Create Optimal Price Table based on targeted outcomes and limited parameters
- Max. Income (1 yr.)- Max. Income (3 yr.)- Max. Sales Volume
- …
OFFLINE*
*On a schedule and manually adjustable via
Spotfire
Spotfire as a Generalised Linear Model (GLM) Builder
• No coding required, easy to learn for analysts from varied backgrounds
• Easy feature engineering with Spotfire visualisations and marking (see demo video)
Define GLM type
Coefficient table
Visualisations of the selected
factor
Select factors to include in
model
Spotfire as a Generalised Linear Model (GLM) Builder
Direct link to data that has been consistently
banded by the StreamBase banding engine
(age “37” becomes “30-39”)
No more data formatting woes
Time consistency and factor exclusion testsTools to improve and evaluate the model
Model diagnostic page (ROC, AUC, Lift curve,
Confusion Matrix,…)
Cramer’s V correlation test
Logging Audit proof
Deployment of model objects to database
→ accessible by StreamBase application
Streamlined process for launching a new model into
the live flow
Automated Intelligent Reports
• Model gets updated by a TERR script on a schedule set in StreamBase (e.g. once/week)
• Automation Services sends Spotfire report by email
• Decision to promote or not promote the new model to test (→ live) can be made
• Insights can be gained from model changes
Beyond GLMs
• TERR/Spotfire/StreamBase can be used to implement other Machine Learning techniques, e.g. for clustering/segmentation
• Flexibility to modify or build solutions suiting our business needs
• Our teams have built up significant expertise over the last year and are now mostly independent from consultant support
• … our imagination is the limit
Solution Design - Future
Insurer Schemes
Policy Administration
TheAA.ie
Inte
grat
ion
Plat
form
(BW
6, E
MS)
Datawarehouse
Data Store (Models, Reports)
Spotfire Server
Automation Services
Automated Reporting
Pricing/Analytics
team
Auto Data Banding
Optimal Pricing
Fraud
CRM Models
Segmentation
Live X-Sell
Call Centre
Marketing
“When can we expect capacity and which
customers should we contact?”
Predictive Capacity
Embedded Customer Value
StreamBase/TERR
Intelligent Cross-Product Indicative Quotes – Seamless Premium Predictions…
Home Insurer Schemes
Inte
grat
ion
Plat
form
(BW
6, E
MS)
StreamBase/TERR
AA Home Data
Geo-LocationExternal Data
Auto Data Banding
Optimal Pricing
Live X-Sell AB
• AAI Motor Ins. Journey has 79 questions – 14 overlapping with Home Ins. Journey
• Home Ins. quotes expensive – average CPQ c€60
• Challenge: Give every AAI Motor quote a Home Insurance quote
• Home Quote to be as accurate as possible with no latency impact to Motor Journey – large computation challenge
• TIBCO StreamBase perfect tool to address challenge
Intelligent X-Sell:
Web
Agent
Live Fraud Prevention – Identify Application Fraud in Live Environment…
Insurer SchemesIn
tegr
atio
n Pl
atfo
rm (B
W6,
EM
S)
StreamBase/TERR
Fuzzy Customer Matching
Previous Quote Details
Auto Data Banding
Optimal Pricing
Fraud
• Fraud adds c€60 to the average Motor Ins. Premium
• Application fraudsters are higher claims risk – up to 55% increase in Claims Cost
• Challenge: Ø Block multiple QuotersØ Block previous Bad DebtØ Target quote manipulation (Application Fraud)Ø No latency impact on Motor journey
Live Fraud Prevention:
Web
Agent
Live X-Sell
0%6%
13%
27%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0 1 2 3 4+
Incr
ease
in C
laim
s Cos
t(v
. 0 M
anip
ulat
ed Q
uote
s)
Number of Manipulated Quotes
Increase in Claims Cost by Number Manipulated Quotes
Spotfire Reporting – B2B BI
Tailored reports of breakdown causes similar to the below can be made available to B2B customersThe next step is Predictive Management Information (MI) – immediate insight into what is causing the trend
Positive Business Outcomes
• Optimize Trading PerformanceØ continually analyze for opportunities/risks and automatically
report/react
• Real-Time Predictive AnalyticsØ live business insights – democratize Data/MI/Insight
• Complex Event Processing PlatformØ Low code environment, enabling rapid build and deploymentØ Highly responsive and scalable environment