Tonight’s Futures Closes:

(Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures prices highlighted in red were the bear leaders today.)

Sep 17 Corn $3.5725 -15.0 Sep 17 Soybeans $9.34 -32.0

Sep 17 CH Wheat $4.405 -19.0

Dec 17 Corn $3.71 -15.25 Nov 17 Soybeans $9.4025 -33.0 Dec 17 CH Wheat $4.6875 -18.0

Mar 18 Corn $3.83 -15.0 Jan 18 Soybeans $9.49 -32.5

Sep 17 KC Wheat $4.4825 -15.5

May 18 Corn $3.8925 -14.5 Mar 18 Soybeans $9.5675 -31.75

Dec 17 KC Wheat $4.7575 -15.25

Dec 18 Corn $4.04 -12.75 Nov 18 Soybeans $9.5575 -24.0 Sep 17 MN Wheat $7.0325 -30.75

Dec 17 Oats $2.67 -8.5 Nov 17 Rapeseed $506.2 -5.0 Dec 17 MN Wheat $7.155 -30.0

Dec 17 Meal $300.2 -12.7 Oct 17 Cotton $69.26 -2.56 Sept Dollar Index 93.300 -0.140

Dec 17 SB Oil $34.16 -0.37 Dec 17 Cotton $68.11 -3.00 Oct Crude Oil $48.63 -1.09

Oct 17 Cattle 106.600 -1.450 Dec 18 Cotton $67.68 -2.24 Aug Gold $1285.5 +12.5

Oct 17 Feeder

140.475 -0.500 Sep 17 Rice $1225.0 -6.0 Sept S&P 2435.80 -37.20

Oct 17 Hogs 67.975 -0.275 Nov 17 Rice $1252.0 -6.0 Sept Dow Jones 21836 -182

Thursday, August 10, 2017

USDA analysts preparing for today’s report!

All joking aside, it was a rough day for the

markets following the multitude of surprises

today from USDA (see attached Revenue

Management Update letter). When it was all

said and done, December corn broke support

around $3.75 and closed at its lowest mark since

last September (top right). December cotton

closed limit lower, breaking its sharp uptrend,

and falling thru its 9-day, 50-day, & 20-day

moving averages (lower right). November

soybeans took out their July/August low, and are

now looking down at their June low of $9.07.

Minneapolis September wheat closed down the

30 cent limit, but at least found support at its

50% retracement & 50-day moving average.

Chicago & KC wheat followed along. Based on

today’s closes, I would guess that tomorrow’s

trade will probably be lower as well, then try to

find some stability over the weekend.

Going forward, everything depends on how

much traders believe USDA’s numbers, plus

weather’s impact for the remainder of the year.

We’ve seen past years where USDA lowered

yields significantly after the August report (see

last night’s GMO, recent history of corn yields, August-January, 2010 & 2011). USDA was

VERY aggressive with its ear weights (below), using the 3rd heaviest ear weight

since 2004. Does anyone believe this??? Even adjusting the weight down .01

lbs/ear would be nearly 3%, which could drop their yield estimate to 164.7

bpa. That would be in line with average trade estimates.

USDA is also using it largest wheat head weight in the last 14 years, and has

increased that number each of the last two months. IF USDA intends to stay

with this weight, then I’d assume they will decrease spring wheat harvested

acres in subsequent reports.

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