Thursday, 27 October 2005 Using Commercial Simulation ... · ProModel can be utilized to model linear and non-linear processes to provide insight into system enhancements. Operations

Operations Research Center of ExcellenceResearching the Army’s Future

Developing Tomorrow’s Leaders

U S M A

Using Commercial Simulation Software toUsing Commercial Simulation Software toModel Linear and NonModel Linear and Non--Liner Processes: USLiner Processes: US

Military Academy ReceptionMilitary Academy Reception--DayDaySimulation and OptimizationSimulation and Optimization

Thursday, 27 October 2005Thursday, 27 October 2005

LTC Simon R. Goerger, PhD2LT Stephen P. Fuller2LT Jeffrey D. Glick2LT Thomas P. KavanaughMr. Arlan C. Sheets

8th Annual8th AnnualSystems EngineeringSystems Engineering

ConferenceConference

2Researching the Army’s Future


AgendaAgenda

� Systems Engineering Management Process� Reception-Day Background� Problem Statement� Assumptions� Overview of R-Day simulation in ProModel� Initial analysis� Alternatives� SimRunner Optimization� Study Conclusions� Summary

Environment

ProblemDefinition

NeedsAnalysis

Value SystemDesign

ImplementationPlanning for

Action

Assessment &Control

Execution

EngineeringDesign Problem

Design &Analysis

AlternativesGeneration

Modeling &Analysis

DecisionMaking

AlternativeScoring

Decision

Cultural

Political

Historical

Moral /Ethical

Economic

Technological

<---- Assessment & Feedback --------

DescriptiveScenario

Current Status:What is?

NormativeScenario

Desired End State:What should be?

Systems Engineering andSystems Engineering andManagement ProcessManagement Process



ReceptionReception--Day BackgroundDay Background

� Process conducted annually in some form for over200 years

� All tasks must be completed in one day between0630 and 1730

� Over 1200 cadets in-processed annual for over 20years

� Critical Reception-Day (R-Day) tasks� Thayer Hall (Linear)� United States Corps of Cadets (USCC) (Non-Linear)



Problem StatementProblem Statement

� Stream line Reception-Day activities for in-processing new cadets into the Corps ofCadets from the initial arrival of candidatesat Thayer Hall until the start of the OathCeremony to ensure all critical tasks andtraining are completed prior to the OathCeremony at 1745.



Information ResourcesInformation Resources� Information Resources:

� Admissions� “Beast” Company Commanders� Directorate of Logistics� Medical Department Activity� R-Day Director� Thayer Hall Non-Commissioned Officers� Treasurer

� Literature:� Operations Order (OPORDs) R-Day 2004� Data sets/maps from R-Day 2004

� Data analysis implemented into model to greatest extent possible� Thayer Hall models form Academic Year 2004



Value HierarchyValue Hierarchy



AssumptionsAssumptions

� Assumptions due to:� Modeling constraints� The need to account for imperfect data

� Examples:� Candidates return to Company Holding Area after each station� Candidates stay together as a single squad throughout the USCC

portion of R-Day� All Candidates have trousers in hand when they leave Issue Point

#2 (IP2)� Drill 1 and Drill 2 are combined� Every Candidate goes to the Barber Shop� IP3 and Company In-Processing grouped together



Process Flow: Thayer HallProcess Flow: Thayer Hall

BaggageCheck

Admissions

Smart Card

DENTAC

TattooCheck

ChangingArea

Issue Point 1

Treasurer

Immunization

CompanyAssignment

Oath

MedicalCheck

CompanyHolding

AreaUSCCUSCC

STARTSTART



Functional Flow: Thayer HallFunctional Flow: Thayer Hall



ProModelProModel: Thayer Hall: Thayer Hall

Model Built By:CDT Stephen P. FullerCDT Jeffrey D. GlickCDT Thomas P. KavanaughCDT Arlan C. Sheets

Faculty Advisor:LTC Simon R. Goerger, PhD



Process Flow: USCCProcess Flow: USCC

Formationat 1745

ENDEND

Thayer HallThayer HallCompanyReception

Issue Point 2Issue Point 3

Trouser Issue

CompanyIn-Processing

Drill 2

Drill 1

Lunch

Barber



Functional Flow: USCCFunctional Flow: USCC



ProModelProModel: USCC: USCC-- Decision PointDecision Point

IP4IP4

BarberBarberShopShop



Alternatives/IssuesAlternatives/Issues

� Arrival rates of busses to Thayer Hall� Pick-up rates of the candidates from Thayer Hall� Routing of candidates in order to reduce average

wait times at the barbershop and delaying trouserissue

� Number of Squad Leaders available� Number of barbers available



AlternativesAlternatives� Arrival rates of busses to Thayer Hall� Bottom Line: Buses should arrive to Thayer Hall approximately every

8:30 Arrival Times to Thayer

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

8:48 9:15 9:18 8:38 8:58 9:57

5 6 7 8 9 10Interarrival Time (minutes)

Hou

rs fo

r al

l can

dida

tes t

o fin

ish

R-D

ay

Inter-Arrival Time

Time to Complete R-Day



AlternativesAlternatives� Pick-up rates of the candidates from Thayer Hall� Bottom Line: Longer inter-arrival time = larger squads = shorter R-day

Squad Leader Pickup from Thayer

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

6 7 8 9 10 12 14Interarrival Time of Squad Leaders (minutes)

Ave

rage

Squ

ad S

ize

/ Hou

rs to

Com

plet

e R

-Day

Time to Finish R-DayAVG Squad Size



AlternativesAlternatives

� Routing of candidates in order to reduce averagewait times at the barbershop and delaying trouserissue

� Bottom Line: Limit the flow of cadets into the barbershop when trouser issue still incomplete

8:58Trousers First9:02Haircut First

Time to CompleteR-DayRule



AlternativesAlternatives

Squad Leaders Available

8.4

8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10

12 13 14 15 16

# Squad Leaders Available

Tot

al T

ime

to C

ompl

ete

R-D

ay (h

ours

)

Time to CompleteR-Day

� Number of Squad Leaders available� Bottom Line: Recommend 14 squad leaders; too many squad leaders

creates too many (and smaller) squads moving in system



AlternativesAlternatives� Vary the number of carbers available� Bottom Line: 16 Barbers cost effective

Barbers Available

8.28.48.68.8

99.29.49.69.810

10.2

12 14 16 18 20

# Barbers Available

Tot

al H

ours

To

Com

plet

e R

-Day



Increase the Size of the CorpsIncrease the Size of the Corps

Time to Complete R-Day

02468

101214

1144

1232

1320

1408

1496

1584

Number of Cadets

Tim

e (H

ours

)

11.9516283710.915843610.6515403510.421496349.831452339.851408329.451364319.051320308.8127629

8.781232288.681188278.25114426

Time toComplete

R-DayCadetsBus

Trips

• Bottom Line: Time to complete R-day showslinear growth with increasing size of Corps



Effect of Decreased ControlEffect of Decreased ControlFlow MeasuresFlow Measures

� When you decrease control flow measures, the amount of timeneeded to complete R-Day increases.

� SCENARIO: Allow Squad Leaders to randomly decide where to takehis/her squad until complete:

RESULT: 25:16 hours (Actual time = 7:46 AM, R-Day + 1)

� SCENARIO: Ignore the counters at the various stations:

RESULT: Approximately 16:30 hours (Actual time = 10:30 PM)



SimRunnerSimRunner OptimizationOptimization

� Picked four critical parameters� Understand the interaction of:

� Bus Arrival Rates� Squad Leader Pick-Up Arrival Rates� Squad Leaders Available� Barbers Available



SimRunnerSimRunner Optimization FunctionOptimization Function

xi = average time at stations 1, 2,…i (ai is theassociated weight for each station)

xj = number of minutes to complete R-Day (bj isthe associated weight for each station)

xk = cost per bus driver, barber, and squad leader(ck is the associated weight for each station)

xl = % complete at stations 1, 2,…l (dl is theassociated weight for each station)

xm = total throughput of the simulation (em is theassociated weight for each station)



SimRunnerSimRunner Optimization FunctionOptimization Function

� Objective Function:

Min z1 = ∑ aixi +∑ bjxj +∑ ckxk

Max z2 = ∑ dlxl +∑ emxm

z0 = z2 - z1



SimRunnerSimRunner OptimizationOptimization ResultsResults

8

8

9

6

6

6

6

7

7

7

Bus ArrivalRates (Min)

27077.671121314

27077.671121214

27116.028121214

27168.011121214

27222.004121314

27245.455121414

27245.455121514

27248.613121414

27248.613121514

27248.613121314

ObjectiveFunction

Number ofAvailableBarbers

Number of SquadLeaders Available

(per Company)

Squad LeaderPick-Up Arrival

Rates (Min)



SimRunnerSimRunner OptimizationOptimization ResultsResults

Average 14Average 13~15~8Actual for 2005

Average 14Average 13~10~9Actual for 2004

1614148One FactorOptimization

1213147Four FactorOptimization

Number ofAvailableBarbers

Number ofSquad Leaders

Available(per Company)

Squad LeaderPick-Up Arrival

Rates (Min)

Bus ArrivalRates (Min)Method



Study ConclusionsStudy Conclusions� Limited resources requiring non-linear utilization can be

optimized by establishing flexible process thresholds whichallow freedom of execution.

� Process thresholds need to be subjectively altered by a centralcommand (operations center) throughout the day to maximizethroughput.

� Real-time information of status of key areas is required toallow system administrators (squad leaders) and centralcommand (operations center) to execute tasks in a timelymanner.

� Impact to USMA and the Army:� Efficiency (2005 process shaved nearly 30 minutes from 2004 time2005 process shaved nearly 30 minutes from 2004 time)� Cost-savings



SummarySummary

� Commercial simulation software such asProModel can be utilized to model linearand non-linear processes to provide insightinto system enhancements.



U S M A

QuestionsQuestions

LTC Simon R. GoergerAssistant Professor and ORCEN [email protected]



U S M A

Using Commercial Simulation Software toUsing Commercial Simulation Software toModel Linear and NonModel Linear and Non--Liner Processes: USLiner Processes: US

Military Academy ReceptionMilitary Academy Reception--DayDaySimulation and OptimizationSimulation and Optimization

Thursday, 27 October 2005Thursday, 27 October 2005

LTC Simon R. Goerger, PhD2LT Stephen P. Fuller2LT Jeffrey D. Glick2LT Thomas P. KavanaughMr. Arlan C. Sheets

8th Annual8th AnnualSystems EngineeringSystems Engineering

ConferenceConference

Documents

Thursday, 27 October 2005 Using Commercial Simulation ... · ProModel can be utilized to model linear and non-linear processes to provide insight into system enhancements. Operations