Threats to Energy Security May Change the Map by Michael Bailey

7/28/2019 Threats to Energy Security May Change the Map by Michael Bailey

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Threats to Energy Security May Change the Map

A recent Lloyds 360 report by Chatham House called Sustainable Energy Security,

made the assertion that future challenges to meeting energy needs in the West aregoing to revolve around energy security. There are a number of issues that willcontribute to these challenges, including cyber security, other national security issues,political upheaval and environmental initiatives.

Cyber Security Challenges

Threats to network security remain a prime concern for energy managers at every level,from retail delivery at fuel stations right to the top of governmental energy ministries.Security and information technology experts are scrambling to keep abreast of a rapidlychanging landscape with regard to vulnerabilities that are open to exploitation. Arrayedagainst them are literal armies, as well as individuals and groups, with increasingknowledge and skills in this arena.

Certain groups like crime syndicates, Al Qaeda and Anonymous represent new threatspreviously seen on a much smaller scale, traditionally lone wolf hackers and small,loosely organized crime rings. Other, more obvious concerns are posed bygovernmental pursuit of deliberately directed and highly funded programs aimed atcompromising the energy infrastructure in order to lower defensive capabilities.


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Countries like China, Iran, Venezuela, Russia and Syria have embarked on ambitious

projects to shut down dams and generators, seize control of energy managementsystems and cripple energy grids. The West is no slouch with such programs itself, ashas been demonstrated with the viral destruction of Irans nuclear research program fora considerable period. Such destruction costs millions and can leave a country wideopen for military or terrorist attack.

National Security

Some estimates have oil peaking at over 200 dollars a barrel in the near future. Thiswould drive retail prices of gasoline and other consumer products to unprecedentedlevels. In the United States, there is the additional specter of inflation to deal with, fromcentral banking policies such as unlimited money supply. These types of concerns placeenormous pressures on societal ills like poverty and sluggish economies attempting toclimb out of recession.

It is entirely conceivable that these pressures could result in civil unrest, even in

traditionally stable societies such as the United States, Germany and the UnitedKingdom. One widely accepted model holds that it requires 10 calories of infrastructuresuch as fertilizer, fuel, packaging and electricity to produce one calorie of food in theWest.


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Food prices could skyrocket along with energy costs. If people are unable to heat theirhomes, cook their food (or even purchase it) and lack access to hot water, tensionscould boil over into frustrations and even rioting. In such a situation, not only is thesocial fabric of a country threatened, rivals could seek to exploit these conditions to their

own military advantages.

Environmental Concerns

In accordance with United Nations Agenda 21 and other such environmental initiatives,there have been severe limitations on exploration and retrieval of fossil fuels like gasand oil. In addition, many coal producers such as Australia and Europe are seeking to

eliminate coal production entirely in coming decades. These have been, and remain, thecheapest sources of energy available. At this point, solar and wind have provenincapable of taking up the slack.

No technological breakthroughs seem imminent that would change the shape of thatcurve, either. This means without significant technical development, such aspiezoelectric harvesting or dramatic reduction in fossil energy requirements to producesolar components, oil and gas prices seem destined to rise sharply. Given the


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statement by U.S. President Obama that Under my plan, your electricity costs wouldnecessarily skyrocket this seems practically a certainty.

Political Upheaval

If these concerns are not addressed, the results could be devastating not only in theWest, but for every region of the globe. When a country with large energy demandsfinds its energy supplies threatened, military action against neighboring countries canbe the result. Political threats to energy security that can easily lead to such actions areevident in political terror movements. Others are not as obvious, but just astroublesome.

Entire political unions could find themselves in disarray. One such place is Europe,where the North controls not only energy production, but also holds to environmentalismas policy. This could result in fragile economies in Southern Europe being furtherhampered by high energy costs as production is scaled back in the North. Such asituation could easily result in changes of political leadership, with a correspondingfracture developing in the Union itself. Eastern Europe could be drawn back towardsRussia to meet its requirements, affecting military alliances.

The United States, Mexico and Canada could find themselves in a situation whereexternally their economies are thriving due to energy exports, but because of highinternal energy costs, their societies may undergo increasing stratification amongvarious income levels. One solution conceivably could be the a North American Unionbeing formed from the three countries to combine defense and trade. Such a proposalhas been floated many times by economic and political leadership in each of thosecountries.


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The logical outcome of such a union would be a drastic reduction in the libertiestraditionally taken for granted in the United States, for instance in gun ownership, traveland relocation, all of which are limited in its immediate neighbors north and south. Such

restrictions could easily lead to huge political unrest inside the U.S. with uncertainoutcomes. For all its leadership and stability, the U.S. is designed to operate at theragged edge of revolution in the best of times.

In South America, Brazil has shown surprising forethought by moving internal energy toalternative sources and reserving oil and gas for export. The economy has been on asharply escalating curve in recent years as a result. Logically, many South Americancountries may be drawn into alliances with Brazil, or emulate their model. Unfortunately,if this leads to explosive growth in countries without the infrastructure to support it, mass

starvation could be an ironic result of national wealth, along with large-scaledeforestation or ecological damage of other kinds in sensitive habitats.

Asia is witnessing the rise of rivals like China, Singapore and India to challenge Japanshistorical economic leadership in that arena. Given traditional rivalries and hugemilitaries, this could present severe stability challenges there as well. Combined withthe rising wealth and influence of nearby Muslim countries like Iran, clear conflicts beginto emerge, to say nothing of wholesale political changes like those undergone by Egyptand Libya.

While some solutions are presenting themselves, others will need to be sought out anddeveloped. In some cases, new strategies will need to be designed from the ground upto meet these new energy security challenges. Regardless of whether these strategiesare employed by government, industry or both, it seems clear that energy needs will beshaping the global map for well into the 21st Century.

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Threats to Energy Security May Change the Map by Michael Bailey