Thoughts on ENERGY John Kramlich Professor of Mechanical Engineering Phil Malte Professor of Mechanical Engineering

Thoughts on Thoughts on ENERGYENERGY

John Kramlich

Professor of Mechanical Engineering

Phil Malte

Professor of Mechanical Engineering

QUESTIONS to ANSWERQUESTIONS to ANSWER

• US Energy: Where are we US Energy: Where are we now?now?

• Where are we going?Where are we going?

• How about the local scene?How about the local scene?

Transportation Heating Electricity Total

Petroleum

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Total

US Energy in Quads (1.0E+15 Btu)


Petroleum 24 12 1 21-Import

16-Domestic

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Total




16-Domestic

Coal 0 0 20 24

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Total




16-Domestic

Coal 0 0 20 24

Natural Gas

1 18 3 22

Nuclear

Hydro

Total




16-Domestic

Coal 0 0 20 24

Natural Gas

1 18 3 22

Nuclear 0 0 7 7

Hydro 0 0 3 3

Total 25 30 34


Quads



16-Domestic

Coal 0 0 20 24

Natural Gas

1 18 3 22

Nuclear 0 0 7 7

Hydro 0 0 3 3

Total 25 30 34


GASOLINE ENGINE EFFICIENCYGASOLINE ENGINE EFFICIENCY

FUEL 100%

Engine 35%

Start/stop, running cold, running off “sweet spot” (hard acceleration), oversized engines, throttle losses

20%

Well-to-wheels 15-17%

Why? We ask a lot from a car

Hybrid Gasoline-ElectricHybrid Gasoline-Electric

Hybrid Advantages

• Ideal: Engine runs near one RPM and torque (engines oversized)

• Regenerative braking• Hard acceleration covered by battery• Avoids big losses of city driving• Since wind friction goes with speed

squared, highway mileage often lower than city (35 mph best!)

Fuel Cell PropulsionFuel Cell Propulsion

The Fuel Cell: An Externally-Fueled Battery

Fuel Cell Issues

• Platinum for cell• Expensive

machining• Expensive

membrane

• Auto: 35$/kW• Fuel cell: 300$/kW• Must find ways to

get cost down or may not compete

Hydrogen Issues

Hydrogen IssuesHydrogen Issues

• Make H2 in fuel plant? Natural gas to H2 leads to a significant loss in fuel value (recover only ~60% of original energy).

• Store H2 on vehicle? Safety? Space?

• Make H2 from gasoline? Carry a chemical plant on your car?

““Well-to-Wheel” EfficienciesWell-to-Wheel” Efficiencies

Fuel Prod

Eng W-W CO2 g/km

Ems

Gas-now 85% 18% 15% 220 Low

Gas-adv 85% 23% 20 % 170 Ultra/S

Hybrid 85% 36% 31% 110 Ultra/S

FC-HC 60% 50% 30% 110 Super

FC-MeOH 50% 36% 18% 110 Super

Running Out of Oil?Running Out of Oil?

• Record of Consumption and Production in USA

• Resource

• Cheap versus Expensive Oil

Oil in the USAOil in the USA

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BIL

LIO

N B

TU

Consumption of Oil in USA

Domestic Crude Oil Production

Resource (economically Resource (economically recoverable billions of barrels)recoverable billions of barrels)

Crude Oil ~1000 World (25% recvy)

Shale Oil ~17000 World: 25 gal/ton

Shale Oil ~3000 US+Canada: 25

Tar Sands 100-1000 US,Canada,Venzl

ANWR 6-16 3-8% of US use

Use Rate 7 bbo/yr USA

Use Rate 25 bbo/yr WORLD

MessageMessage

• The supply of Cheap-to-Recover crude oil is limited – there is about a 40 years supply at the present consumption rate.

• The world is becoming increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil.

• There is a lot of Expensive-to-Recover oil – monetarily and environmentally expensive.

• Should transportation move away from oil?



16-Domestic

Coal 0 0 20 24

Natural Gas

1 18 3 22

Nuclear 0 0 7 7

Hydro 0 0 3 3

Total 25 30 34


Conventional Power Plant

Air

Coal: 100%

CO2 H2O SO2 NO

Particles

~36%

~64%

Generator

Scrubber for SO2 Catalyst for NO Electrostatic Filter for Particles

Steam

Pump

Cooling Water

Air Pump

Fuel

Burner Turbine

Generator

Hot Exhaust

Simple Gas Turbine

Generator

Generator

Gas Turbine

Generators recover ~58% of fuel energy Losses are ~42% No need for SO2, NO, particle cleanup Still make CO2

CO2

Hot Exhaust

Natural Gas

Air

~42%

Pump

Cooling Water

Modern Combined Cycle Power Plant

Coal and Gas Prices

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

$/m

illio

n B

tu

Gas

Coal

Coal for Combined Cycles

Air Air Seperator Gasifier

N2

Coal

S, N2

O2

Water

Generator

Generator

Gas Turbine

Hot Exhaust

CO H2

Fuel Cleaning

Air

CO2 Cleanup?



16-Domestic

Coal 0 0 20 24

Natural Gas

1 18 3 22

Nuclear 0 0 7 7

Hydro 0 0 3 3

Total 25 30 34


Natural Gas in USANatural Gas in USA

0

4000000

8000000

12000000

16000000

20000000

24000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BIL

LIO

N B

TU

Consumption of Nat Gas in USA

Domestic Production of Nat Gas

Natural Gas for ElectricityNatural Gas for Electricity4% average yearly growth rate4% average yearly growth rate

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

BIL

LIO

N C

U F

T

Natural Gas Prices

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

$/m

illio

n B

tu

May be priced out of some markets



16-Domestic

Coal 0 0 20 24

Natural Gas

1 18 3 22

Nuclear 0 0 7 7

Hydro 0 0 3 3

Total 25 30 34


HydropowerHydropower

Turbine/Generator Set

Some EngineeringSome Engineering

Energy = g[mass of water thru turbine] X [height of dam]

• Low reservoirs reduce effective height

• Reduced river flows cut mass available

• 300 W projection-TV operated for one hour = one ton of water through Grand Coulee Dam.

Washington Electric Power Washington Electric Power Capacities and Actual Use (1998)Capacities and Actual Use (1998)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

PO

WE

R (

MW

)

The Big FiveThe Big Five

010002000300040005000600070008000

Po

wer

(MW

)

What Next?What Next?

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1

Total

Grand Coulee

Chief Joesph

Centralia Coal

Rocky Reach

WNP Nuclear

Proposed Combined Cycle

A Tale of Two HousesA Tale of Two Houses

• Malte• 3500 ft2

• Gas furnace, hot water, range-top

• Balance electric• PSE

• Kramlich• 2000 ft2

• All electric• Heat pump furnace• SCL

Annual Energy ConsumptionAnnual Energy Consumption

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

KW

H /

YR

Kramlich-ElectricMalte-ElectricMalte-Electric+Nat Gas

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

CE

NT

S /

KW

H

• Heat is present in all air• But heat flows only from hot to cold• So heat in outside air won’t directly warm your house• Use electricity to “pump” heat from outside into your house• Better than just using electricity alone to get heat• Multiplies value of electricity

Heat Pump

Heat Pump

1 kW Electricity

2 kW Heat from

Air

3 kW Heat to House

MessageMessage

• Larger house requires more energy.

• Electricity gives more heat (per unit energy input) than gas if a heat pump is used.

• But: Electricity costs more, which is a reflection of its greater utility.

Solar PV?Solar PV?

• Panel+BOS Costs = $750/kw-peak (grid-tied)• 12 kw System = $90,000• Capacity Factor = 12% (20% in AZ)• Power generated = 12,600 kW-hr/year

(Kramlich: 18,000-24,000, Malte: 11,000-15,000)

• Simple Cost over 30 year life = 24¢/kW-hr• Arizona: 14¢/kW-hr

Vansycle Project: Wallula

Stateline Project, Wallula • 450 Turbines• 300 MW max• 70,000 homes

Seattle City Light and Seattle City Light and StatelineStateline

• 10/18/01 in PI:– 50 MW now– 150 MW future– 175 MW maybe– $48.50/MWH

• Stateline first phase: 265 MW peak from 400 turbines

WRAP UPWRAP UPFUELFUEL USAUSA WORLDWORLD TRENDTREND

OilOil 39% 34%

Nat GasNat Gas 23% 20%

CoalCoal 22% 20% ?

NuclearNuclear 8% 6% ?

HydroHydro 4% 6% ?

BiomassBiomass 4% 14% ?

Solar&WindSolar&Wind

ElectricityElectricity

Renewable/Global Warming

• If CO2 avoidance key: Nuclear, biomass, CO2 sequestration, solar, wind, tidal, hydro

• If renewable is also key, remove nuclear, unless fusion is solved

• Current: Solar=0.069 Q, Wind=0.12 Q. Biomass=2.9 out of 100

Documents

Thoughts on ENERGY John Kramlich Professor of Mechanical Engineering Phil Malte Professor of Mechanical Engineering