Thoughts on Decarbonisation

Ron Oxburgh

PLANTS & Other Life

WATER

FOOD

ENERGY

PEOPLE

CLIMATE

World Population – last 12,000 years

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000M

ILLI

ON

Years

Population & Energy Use

3E+09

3.5E+09

4E+09

4.5E+09

5E+09

5.5E+09

6E+09

6.5E+09

7E+09

7.5E+09

3000.0 5000.0 7000.0 9000.0 11000.0 13000.0 15000.0

Wo

rld

Po

pu

lati

on

World Energy Consumption mboe BP 2017 & Geohive

2016

2007

1965

1978

2016 >80% of energy from unabated fossil fuels

The race against time – time constants for pervasive change

• Software 1-2 years

• Hardware 2 -4 years

• Heavy plant 10 - 15 years

• New heavy technology 15 -20 years

• Physical infrastructure 30 – 60 years

• Technologies that will make the largest contribution by 2050 are around today

• some technologies may be too late to be useful

2015 Paris Agreement

• Will countries be able to meet their pledges?

• Who meets immediate decarbonisation costs?

• Trump and the US

• China• Has driven down the cost of renewables• Scientifically aware government• Aware that they will be a major climate change loser• May in future pressure trading partners to curb

emissions

What about the UK?Dissolution of established energy silos

• POWER: • Wind and solar ahead of expectations• Still need ca. 50 Gw despatchable power• CCS and new nuclear stalled• Price caps – investment?• Interconnectors

• TRANSPORT:• Electrification – battery +/- fuel-cells• Diesels – Heavy transport?

• INDUSTRY• No real incentive not to vent to atmosphere

The Levers of Government

•Taxation

•Subsidy

•Regulation

• Needed to underpin business case for action• Provide a level playing field for competition

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15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 17 Q1 17 Q2

Quarters 2015 -17

UK total Energy Demand - Seasonality

IndustryOther

‘Domestic’

Transport

DUKES 2017

TTO

E

Despatchable Power

2050

2040

2030

2020

SMR

Hinckley

CCGT

+CCS

ReformCH4

? Biomass

CCS

ContractInterconnectors

CCHT

NETPOWER PLANTLA PORTE TEXAS 2017

“Potential CCS Gamechanger nears completion”MIT Technology Review Aug 2017

Oxyburn plantCO2 as working fluidCost similar to conventional CCGT50% efficient on coal60% efficient on gasExhaust CO2 & H2O

Conclusions

• Timescale is the universal challenge

• UK seasonality & energy storage

• Need for multitrack strategy - complementary developments moving at different speeds

• Currently no credible way of meeting decarb targets without CCS

• Will not be met without a business case for managing GHG

• Possible world role for UK in demonstrating that decarbonisation is practicable and affordable