Thomas G. Barnes, Ph.D.Extension Professor

Department of ForestryUniversity of Kentucky

www.tombarnes.org

Generalized TrendsForests – change in spp. Composition,

geographic range, health, productivity, fire regime

Coastal areas – beach erosion, inundation of low lying areas (wetland buffers), coral reef die off, stress on fish & estuaries (nature’s nurseries)

Mountains – diminish snow pack, hydrological change

Generalized TrendsWater – change in supply, quality, &

hydrological cycle impact forests, freshwater, arid lands lead to increase flooding, droughts, storm damage

Species & natural areas – loss of habitat lead to extinctions, greater vulnerability to alien, invasive species

Global Warmingretreating glaciers, thinning arctic ice,

rising sea levels, lengthening of growing seasons for some, and earlier arrival of migratory birds

Polar ice decreasing by 8% a yearLouisiana has already lost more than

350,000 acres to rising sea levelsMore than ¼ to 1/3 of all land animals

will be extinct as a resultCoral reefs mostly gone by 2050

Arctic

The Northern Bering Sea is starting to change from arctic to subarctic

Warmer air and water temperatures, less sea ice

The prey base of benthic (bottom) feeding walrus, endangered sea ducks like spectacled eiders, and gray whales is declining

Snow crab catches have declined 85% in six years along with other crab decreases; and crab populations have shifted northward.

Yellowfin sole and Greenland turbot catches have been dropping, concurrently with declines in fur seals and seabirds.

No reproduction in seals (dependent on sea ice) in 1967, 1981, 2000, 2001, 2002

ArcticWhite spruce declines due to warmer

summer temps that exceed tree thresholds

US Forest Service Models Northeastern United StatesRetreat spruce-fir forest into Canada

(more pine and oak moving up from south)

10 to 50% decline in balsam fir, red & black spruce, black, sugar, red, & mountain maples, quacking & bigtooth aspen, paper & yellow birch

US Forest Service Models Northeastern United StatesMore frequent extreme-heat daysLonger growing seasonEarlier leaf and flowering timesShifts in frog mating season (earlier)Earlier migration Atlantic salmonEarlier ice break-upLess snow & more rain (not soft

soaking type but infrequent & heavy)Rising sea level & sea surfaceReduced snow pack & snow density

Tree line in Sierra Nevada has moved more than 100 feet upward in past 100 yrs (you can only move so far up a mountain!)

WildflowersIn NY – found that 6 of 15 wildflowers bloom

average 20 days earlier in past 50 years1 in 5 species will die out because of

increased carbon dioxide levels8% decline overall in plant diversity2006 study at Duke showed a 150% increase

in poison ivy, and more potentUSDA ARS – ragweed increased pollen

production by 400%Sonoran desert studies – 25% of species are

adapting, 75% are disappearing

FungiBritish study, 52,000 records of fruitingFound prior to 1950 – avg. fruiting 33

daysThis decade 75 days and longerMirrors changes in British climate with

warmer and wetter autumns

BirdsMigrating songbirds

Dutch – pied flycatcher – winter in west Africa and return to Netherlands to nest

When hatchlings emerge adults feed them caterpillars (3 week period when Dutch plants are done flowering & caterpillars are abundant)

Plants are flowering an average of 16 days earlier

No food for babies

BirdsGray Jay (45+ year study)Algonquin National Park (Boreal –

spruce/fir forest)Warmer winter weather, food stashes

rot, not in good condition to breedHistorically birds mate for life, now

50% re-mate) – means more first year birds mating – inexperienced – nest failures

So warmer weather, nest fails, re-nest, get with another inexperienced mate – breeding is in chaos

Birds • Study 35 North American Warblers• 20% have shifted ranges northward

average of 65 miles in past 24 years• Kentucky warbler may not be breeding

resident in future if trend continues

Birds Seabirds – kittiwake – populations

declining because timing of food supply (ocean fish) disrupted because their food supplies (fish) have shifted locations

Red Breasted goose – disrupted nesting because of rising sea levels

Tree Swallows – laying eggs 5 to 9 days earlier

Bird Winners Vs LosersPenguins – Chinstrap increase while Adelie

decrease – chinstraps like open water (more of because of ice melt) adelie like pack ice

Herpetofauna1/3 of all 5,743 species are in trouble –

example – harlequin frogs (110 species) Central & South America – 2/3 are now extinct

HerpetofaunaWestern Toad – increase in UV B – egg

mortality – because of pond evaporationGolden Toad – Costa Rica – extinct in

1987– increase droughts – more susceptible to disease & infection

Painted Turtles – sex determined by temp, warmer temps more females and getting unbalanced sex ratios

MammalsPinon mouse – southwestern US

species (just one of multiple species that is moving higher from 1,000 to 3,000 ft)

Pikas – high elevation talus areas where food is scarce – cut, sun dry and store hay – localized extinction

Arctic MammalsPolar bears – arctic ice freezing later,

thawing earlier – less time accumulating fat and more time using it – 10% loss of body weight yields 10% fewer cubs

Arctic fox/red fox – snow line recedes arctic fox numbers decrease while red fox increase

Butterflies35 non migratory

European species – shifted ranges 20 to 150 miles north

Coral Reefs(The tropical rainforests of the ocean)– bleaching – caused by loss of dinoflagellate

(symbiotic relationship) leads to coral death – caused by warmer water & higher irradiance

20% increased in acidity

FisheriesCold water fish, trout & salmon –

intolerant of warm water – stream temps increase – 4 to 20% loss by 2030, 7 to 31% by 2060, and 14 – 36% by 2090 with significant losses in south, southwest and northeast

Because the Yukon River has warmed over 10°F, up to 45% of Yukon salmon are now infected with the parasite Icthyophonus, never found before 1985.