THIS WEEK IN EARNINGS - TR Prop Research · THIS WEEK IN EARNINGS This Week in Earnings provides analysis and commentary on aggregate earnings estimate revisions, growth rates and

PROPRIETARY RESEARCH EARNINGS AGGREGATES

This Week in Earnings provides analysis and commentary on aggregate earnings estimate revisions, growth rates and valuations. View all Proprietary Research from Refinitiv subscription channels.

REPORTING ANALYSTS: David Aurelio, Tajinder Dhillon, CFA May 15, 2020 [email protected] [email protected]

THIS WEEK IN EARNINGS AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS

20Q1 earnings are expected to fall 12.1%. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -11.5%.

Of the 454 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q1, 66.5% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 64.9% and prior four quarter average of 73.7%.

20Q1 revenue is expected to decrease 1.7% from 19Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is -0.8%.

59.3% of companies have reported 20Q1 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60.2% and an average over the past four quarters of 58.6%.

For 20Q2, there have been 29 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 16 positive EPS preannouncements. By dividing 29 by 16 one arrives at an N/P ratio of 1.8 for the S&P 500 Index.

The forward four-quarter (20Q2– 21Q1) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.0.

During the week of May 18, 25 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.

You can find additional commentary and insight on Lipper Alpha Insight

SECTION A: EARNINGS OUTLOOK

Q1 2020: EARNINGS REVISIONS

EXHIBIT 1A. S&P 500: Q1 2020 SHARE-WEIGHTED EARNINGS ($B)

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1/3

1

2/7

2/1

4

2/2

1

2/2

8

3/6

3/1

3

3/2

0

3/2

7

4/3

4/1

0

4/1

7

4/2

4

5/1

5/8

5/1

5

5/2

2

5/2

9

6/5

6/1

2

6/1

9

6/2

6

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PROPRIETARY RESEARCH FROM REFINITIV MAY 15, 2020 THIS WEEK IN EARNINGS

This Week in Earnings provides analysis and commentary on aggregate earnings estimate revisions, growth rates and valuations. 2

There has been a decrease in the share-weighted earnings for the S&P 500 since the start of the quarter (to $274.9B from $331.9B). Nine of the eleven sectors have experienced downward revisions to estimates.

Since Feb. 1, the consumer discretionary (-47.1%) and energy (-42.8%) sectors have recorded the highest percentage decreases in earnings, while the consumer staples (1.3%) sector has recorded the highest percentage increase in earnings. Overall, share-weighted earnings for the S&P 500 have decreased by 17.2% since the start of the quarter.

Since Feb. 1, the financials (-$25.4B) and consumer discretionary (-$11.7B) sectors have recorded the highest dollar-level decreases in earnings, while the consumer staples ($0.3B) sector has recorded the highest dollar-level increase in earnings. Overall, expected share-weighted earnings for the S&P 500 have decreased by $57.1B since the start of the quarter.

Q1 2020: EARNINGS SCORECARD

EXHIBIT 2A. S&P 500: Q1 2020 EARNINGS VS. EXPECTATIONS

Surprise Reported Index

Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total #

Consumer Discretionary 52.4% 2.4% 45.2% -7.7% 42 62

Consumer Staples 77.8% - 22.2% 5.4% 27 33

Energy 70.4% 7.4% 22.2% 123.8% 27 27

Financials 55.4% - 44.6% -17.5% 65 66

Health Care 80.4% 5.4% 14.3% 8.6% 56 60

Industrials 67.1% 5.7% 27.1% 10.7% 70 72

Materials 82.1% 3.6% 14.3% 8.1% 28 28

Real Estate 45.2% 12.9% 41.9% -1.9% 31 31

Information Technology 76.3% 8.5% 15.3% 9.2% 59 71

Communication Services 66.7% 4.8% 28.6% -1.0% 21 22

Utilities 57.1% 7.1% 35.7% 3.8% 28 28

S&P 500 66.5% 5.1% 28.4% 3.2% 454 500


Through May 15, 454 companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings for Q1 2020. Of these companies, 66.5% reported earnings above analyst expectations and 28.4% reported earnings below analyst expectations. In a typical quarter (since 1994), 65% of companies beat estimates and 20% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 74% of companies beat the estimates and 19% missed estimates.

In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 3.2% above estimates, which compares to a long-term (since 1994) average surprise factor of 3.3% and the average surprise factor over the prior four quarters of 5.2%.



Q1 2020: REVENUE SCORECARD

EXHIBIT 3A. S&P 500: Q1 2020 REVENUE VS. EXPECTATIONS

Surprise Reported Index

Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total #

Consumer Discretionary 64.3% - 35.7% 1.7% 42 62

Consumer Staples 59.3% - 40.7% 1.2% 27 33

Energy 44.4% - 55.6% 5.7% 27 27

Financials 53.8% - 46.2% -17.2% 65 66

Health Care 85.7% - 14.3% 3.3% 56 60

Industrials 54.3% - 45.7% 0.4% 70 72

Materials 57.1% - 42.9% 0.9% 28 28

Real Estate 61.3% - 38.7% 2.6% 31 31

Information Technology 76.3% - 23.7% 3.1% 59 71

Communication Services 52.4% - 47.6% -0.3% 21 22

Utilities 7.1% - 92.9% -8.7% 28 28

S&P 500 59.3% - 40.7% -1.0% 454 500


Through May 15, 454 companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported revenue for Q1 2020. Of these companies, 59.3% reported revenue above analyst expectations and 40.7% reported revenue below analyst expectations. In a typical quarter (since 2002), 60% of companies beat estimates and 40% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 59% of companies beat the estimates and 41% missed estimates.

In aggregate, companies are reporting revenue that are 1.0% below estimates, which compares to a long-term (since 2002) average surprise factor of 1.5% and the average surprise factor over the prior four quarters of 1.1%.



Q1 2020: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES

EXHIBIT 4A. S&P 500: Q1 2020 EARNINGS GROWTH

Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth %

Sector 20Q1 19Q1 20Q1 20Q1

Consumer Discretionary 13.1 24.0 -10.9 -45.5%

Consumer Staples 21.4 20.3 1.1 5.2%

Energy 7.7 11.1 -3.4 -30.5%

Financials 37.9 61.1 -23.2 -37.9%

Health Care 55.1 51.5 3.5 6.9%

Industrials 21.2 30.1 -9.0 -29.8%

Materials 6.6 7.5 -0.9 -12.3%

Real Estate 7.6 7.9 -0.3 -3.8%

Information Technology 62.8 58.8 4.1 6.9%

Communication Services 30.0 29.4 0.6 1.9%

Utilities 11.6 11.1 0.5 4.2%

S&P 500 274.9 312.9 -38.0 -12.1%


The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 20Q1 is -12.1%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate improves to -11.5%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $274.9B in 20Q1, compared to share-weighted earnings of $312.9B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 19Q1.

Five of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 19Q1. The information technology and health care sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the consumer discretionary sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 19Q1.

The information technology sector has the highest earnings growth rate (6.9%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $62.8B in 20Q1, compared to earnings of $58.8B in 19Q1. Eight of the 13 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The semiconductor equipment (21.9%) and systems software (21.6%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 3.0%.

The health care sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (6.9%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $55.1B in 20Q1, compared to earnings of $51.5B in 19Q1. Five of the 10 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The health care technology (16.4%) and health care services (16.4%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 6.0%.

The consumer discretionary sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-45.5%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $13.1B in 20Q1, compared to earnings of $24B in 19Q1. Twenty of the 24 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The department stores (-416.2%) and apparel, accessories & luxury goods (-137.4%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to -41.0%.



Q2 2020: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES

EXHIBIT 5A. S&P 500: Q2 2020 EARNINGS GROWTH

Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth %

Sector 20Q2 19Q2 20Q2 20Q2

Consumer Discretionary -1.7 27.0 -28.7 -106.2%

Consumer Staples 19.2 22.7 -3.6 -15.7%

Energy -8.4 15.3 -23.7 -154.9%

Financials 33.8 62.8 -29.1 -46.3%

Health Care 46.4 54.9 -8.6 -15.6%

Industrials 4.0 31.5 -27.5 -87.2%

Materials 6.2 9.8 -3.6 -36.6%

Real Estate 7.0 8.0 -1.0 -12.9%

Information Technology 55.5 60.3 -4.8 -8.0%

Communication Services 23.6 33.4 -9.8 -29.4%

Utilities 9.1 9.3 -0.2 -2.1%

S&P 500 194.6 335.2 -140.6 -41.9%


The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 20Q2 is -41.9%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate improves to -36.5%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $194.6B in 20Q2, compared to share-weighted earnings of $335.2B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 19Q2.

None of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 19Q2. The utilities and information technology sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the energy sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 19Q2.

The utilities sector has the highest earnings growth rate (-2.1%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $9.1B in 20Q2, compared to earnings of $9.3B in 19Q2. Four of the five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The gas utilities (14.2%) and multi-utilities (5.5%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to -4.9%.

The information technology sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (-8%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $55.5B in 20Q2, compared to earnings of $60.3B in 19Q2. Four of the 13 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The application software (28.2%) and semiconductor equipment (21.8%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to -10.2%.

The energy sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-154.9%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $-8.4B in 20Q2, compared to earnings of $15.3B in 19Q2. All six sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The oil & gas drilling (-221.8%) and integrated oil & gas (-187.8%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to -128.5%.



REVENUE GROWTH RATES

EXHIBIT 6A. S&P 500: Q1 2020 REVENUE GROWTH

Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth %

Sector 20Q1 19Q1 20Q1 20Q1


Consumer Staples 309.9 296.5 13.4 4.5%

Energy 212.2 238.5 -26.3 -11.0%

Financials 288.9 360.2 -71.3 -19.8%

Health Care 545.5 496.7 48.7 9.8%

Industrials 290.9 311.2 -20.3 -6.5%

Materials 86.8 87.3 -0.5 -0.6%

Real Estate 27.3 25.9 1.4 5.4%

Information Technology 303.3 291.3 12.0 4.1%

Communication Services 217.8 207.3 10.5 5.1%

Utilities 77.1 82.2 -5.1 -6.2%

S&P 500 2,691.1 2,737.4 -46.3 -1.7%


The estimated revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for 20Q1 is -1.7%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate improves to -0.8%. The S&P 500 expects to see revenue of $2,691.1B in 20Q1, compared to revenue of $2,737.4B (based on the year-ago revenue of the current 505 constituents) in 19Q1.

Five of the 11 sectors anticipate revenue growth for the quarter. The health care sector has the highest revenue growth rate for the quarter, while the financials sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 19Q1.

The health care sector has the highest revenue growth rate (9.8%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $545.5B in 20Q1, compared to revenue of $496.7B in 19Q1. Eight of the 10 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher revenue than a year ago. The managed health care (16.4%) and pharmaceuticals (11.3%) sub-industries have the highest revenue growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 7.1%.

The financials sector has the lowest revenue growth rate (-19.8%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $288.9B in 20Q1, compared to revenue of $360.2B in 19Q1. Six of the 12 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower revenue than a year ago. The multi-sector holdings (-111.1%) and multi-line insurance (-7.4%) sub-industries have the lowest revenue growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 1.0%.

EXHIBIT 7A. S&P 500: Q2 2020 REVENUE GROWTH

Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth %

Sector 20Q2 19Q2 20Q2 20Q2


Consumer Staples 292.1 299.6 -7.4 -2.5%

Energy 145.8 263.5 -117.8 -44.7%

Financials 330.4 359.1 -28.8 -8.0%

Health Care 523.0 514.0 9.0 1.7%

Industrials 236.1 322.5 -86.4 -26.8%

Materials 80.8 95.8 -15.1 -15.7%

Real Estate 24.9 26.9 -2.0 -7.5%

Information Technology 290.5 294.2 -3.7 -1.2%

Communication Services 200.6 217.3 -16.7 -7.7%

Utilities 70.7 69.9 0.8 1.1%

S&P 500 2,479.9 2,824.2 -344.4 -12.2%




AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS

Note: The estimate revision numbers below are an aggregate of the total number of earnings estimate revisions for the Fiscal Year 1 period for all companies in the United States over the previous seven days. Up revisions represent the total number of estimates for Fiscal Year 1 submitted in the past seven days that are higher than the previous estimates for Fiscal Year 1. Down revisions represent the total number of estimates for Fiscal Year 1 submitted in the past seven days of that are lower than the previous estimates for Fiscal Year 1.

EXHIBIT 8A. ESTIMATE REVISIONS – S&P 500

Total Up Down

Week Ending Revisions Revisions % Revisions %

24-Apr-20 2,191 537 25% 1654 75%

1-May-20 2,359 717 30% 1642 70%

8-May-20 2,218 746 34% 1472 66%

15-May-20 1,226 432 35% 794 65%


EXHIBIT 9A. S&P 500: EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION TREND


35%

65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Up Revisions % Down Revisions %



EXHIBIT 10A. ESTIMATE REVISIONS – ALL U.S. COMPANIES

Total Up Down

Week Ending Revisions Revisions % Revisions %

24-Apr-20 4,093 1041 25% 3052 75%

1-May-20 4,731 1502 32% 3229 68%

8-May-20 6,144 2365 38% 3779 62%

15-May-20 4,639 1782 38% 2857 62%


EXHIBIT 11A. ALL U.S. COMPANIES: EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION TREND


38%

62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Up Revisions % Down Revisions %



Q1 2020: EARNINGS GUIDANCE

EXHIBIT 12A. S&P 500: Q1 2020 PREANNOUNCEMENTS

Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019

Type Total (#) Total (%) Total (#) Total (%) Total (#) Total (%)

Positive 16 36% 15 19% 33 34%

In-Line 0 0% 10 13% 4 4%

Negative 29 64% 52 68% 59 61%

Total 45 77 96

N/P Ratio 1.8 3.5 1.8


Q2 2020 – Q1 2021: FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER P/E RATIO

EXHIBIT 13A. S&P 500: FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER (Q2 2020 – Q1 2021) P/E RATIO

Price EPS P/E Ratio

CY 2019 2,852.50 162.93 17.5

Forward 4 Quarter 2,852.50 129.48 22.0

CY 2020 2,852.50 126.33 22.6


EARNINGS CALENDAR

EXHIBIT 14A. NUMBER OF COMPANIES REPORTING Q1 2020 EARNINGS

Reported Report Report Report

Q1 2020 To Date This Week Next Week Remaining

Dow 30 28 2 0 0

S&P 500 454 25 12 9

Source: Eikon from Refinitiv



STARMINE EARNINGS SURPRISE FORECAST

Looking forward at quarterly performance, we use StarMine’s SmartEstimate® from Refinitiv to determine which companies in the S&P 500 are better poised to beat and miss earnings estimates. The SmartEstimate® is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean estimate), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When a significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.

StarMine ARM from Refinitiv is an analyst revisions stock ranking model, designed to predict future changes in analyst sentiment. ARM incorporates more accurate earnings estimates through the SmartEstimate prediction service. ARM region rankings scores companies by region on a scale of 1 to 100 where 100 represents the most bullish sentiment.

Learn how to perform this screen using Eikon on Lipper Alpha Insight here: http://bit.ly/TWIE_Surprise

Over the next two weeks, 37 S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings. Of these companies, 5 positive surprises and 22 negative surprises are expected from S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly results.

EXHIBIT 15A. S&P 500: POSITIVE PREDICTED SURPRISES FOR MAY 18 THROUGH MAY 29, 2020

Company RIC Report Date Sector

Earnings Type

Smart Estimate Mean

Predicted Surprise %

ARM Region Rank

Dollar General Corp DG.N 28-May Consumer

Discretionary EPS 1.73675 1.69827 2.265 96

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc

TTWO.OQ 20-May Communication

Services EPS 0.91701 0.89232 2.766 93

Lowe's Companies Inc LOW.N 20-May Consumer


Target Corp TGT.N 20-May Consumer


PVH Corp PVH.N 27-May Consumer

Discretionary EPS -1.1635

-1.20047

3.08 12

Sources: StarMine data from Refinitiv, Eikon from Refinitiv

http://bit.ly/TWIE_Surprise



EXHIBIT 16A. S&P 500: NEGATIVE PREDICTED SURPRISES FOR MAY 18 THROUGH MAY 29, 2020

Company RIC Report Date Sector

Earnings Type

Smart Estimate Mean

Predicted Surprise %

ARM Region Rank

Nordstrom Inc JWN.N 19-May Consumer


-1.02715

-30.627 3

Expedia Group Inc EXPE.OQ 20-May Consumer


-1.18054

-23.11 6

Kohls Corp KSS.N 19-May Consumer


-1.72213

-11.537 6

Ralph Lauren Corp RL.N 27-May Consumer

Discretionary EPS -0.11217 -0.021 -91.167 8

Gap Inc GPS.N 28-May Consumer


-0.44533

-59.139 14

Medtronic PLC MDT.N 21-May Health Care EPS 0.73401 0.76947 -4.608 17

NetApp Inc NTAP.OQ 27-May Information Technology

EPS 1.02415 1.14374 -10.456 19

Ulta Beauty Inc ULTA.OQ 28-May Consumer

Discretionary EPS 0.23447 0.67608 -65.319 25

Ross Stores Inc ROST.OQ 21-May Consumer

Discretionary EPS -0.07854 0.05213 -130.66 30

Deere & Co DE.N 22-May Industrials EPS 1.632 1.76953 -7.772 33

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co HPE.N 21-May Information Technology

EPS 0.26754 0.29967 -10.72 35

TJX Companies Inc TJX.N 21-May Consumer


-0.15748

-41.615 38

Autodesk Inc ADSK.OQ 27-May Information Technology

EPS 0.79456 0.81036 -1.951 46

HP Inc HPQ.N 27-May Information Technology

EPS 0.41943 0.45346 -7.505 53

Agilent Technologies Inc A.N 21-May Health Care EPS 0.5517 0.6065 -9.036 55

Analog Devices Inc ADI.OQ 20-May Information Technology

EPS 1.0166 1.0414 -2.381 56

Advance Auto Parts Inc AAP.N 19-May Consumer


DXC Technology Co DXC.N 28-May Information Technology

EPS 0.95551 0.9805 -2.549 62

Autozone Inc AZO.N 22-May Consumer

Discretionary EPS 12.48057

13.64895

-8.56 67

Intuit Inc INTU.OQ 21-May Information Technology

EPS 4.59982 4.8395 -4.953 70

Dollar Tree Inc DLTR.OQ 28-May Consumer


Walmart Inc WMT.N 19-May Consumer

Staples EPS 1.11987 1.13715 -1.52 78

Sources: StarMine data from Refinitiv, Eikon from Refinitiv



SECTION B: EARNINGS CALENDAR

EARNINGS CALENDAR BY SECTOR

EXHIBIT 1B. NUMBER OF S&P 500 COMPANIES EXPECTED TO REPORT NEXT WEEK BY SECTOR

Sector 18-May 19-May 20-May 21-May 22-May Total # Reported # of Cos

Consumer Discretionary - 5 4 3 - 12 42 62

Consumer Staples - 1 - 1 - 2 27 33

Energy - - - - - - 27 27

Financials - - - - - - 65 66

Health Care - - 1 2 - 3 56 60

Industrials - - 1 - 1 2 70 72

Materials - - - - - - 28 28

Real Estate - - - - - - 31 31

Information Technology - - 2 3 - 5 59 71

Communication Services - - 1 - - 1 21 22

Utilities - - - - - - 28 28

Total - 6 9 9 1 25 454 500

Source: Eikon from Refinitiv



MONDAY: MAY 18

EXHIBIT 2B. MONDAY EARNINGS CALENDAR

Date Ticker Company Qtr Est Yr Ago % Dif Time

Source: Eikon from Refinitiv, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv



TUESDAY: MAY 19

EXHIBIT 3B. TUESDAY EARNINGS CALENDAR


19-May-20 WMT.N WALMART INC Q1-Apr.20 1.14 1.13 0.6 7:00 AM

19-May-20 AAP.N ADVANCE AUTO PARTS Q1-Mar.20 1.74 2.46 -29.4 8:30 AM

19-May-20 AZO.N AUTOZONE INC Q2-Feb.20 11.75 11.49 2.2 8:30 AM

19-May-20 HD.N HOME DEPOT INC Q1-Apr.20 2.27 2.27 0.0 8:30 AM

19-May-20 KSS.N KOHLS CORP Q1-Apr.20 -1.72 0.61 -382.3 8:30 AM

19-May-20 JWN.N NORDSTROM INC Q1-Apr.20 -1.03 0.23 -546.6 N/AV




WEDNESDAY: MAY 20

EXHIBIT 4B. WEDNESDAY EARNINGS CALENDAR


20-May-20 ADI.OQ ANALOG DEVICES INC Q2-Apr.20 1.04 1.36 -23.4 8:00 AM

20-May-20 LOW.N LOWE'S COMPANIES INC Q1-Apr.20 1.32 1.22 8.5 8:30 AM

20-May-20 MCK.N MCKESSON CORP Q4-Mar.20 4.08 3.69 10.5 8:30 AM

20-May-20 TGT.N TARGET CORP Q1-Apr.20 0.37 1.53 -75.7 8:30 AM

20-May-20 EXPE.OQ EXPEDIA GROUP INC Q1-Mar.20 -1.18 -0.27 NA 4:00 PM

20-May-20 LB.N L BRANDS INC Q1-Apr.20 -0.65 0.14 -566.5 4:00 PM

20-May-20 SNPS.OQ SYNOPSYS INC Q2-Apr.20 0.98 1.16 -15.3 4:00 PM

20-May-20 TTWO.OQ TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE IN Q4-Mar.20 0.89 0.78 14.4 4:00 PM

20-May-20 CPRT.OQ COPART INCORPORATED Q3-Apr.20 0.68 0.66 2.3 N/AV




THURSDAY: MAY 21

EXHIBIT 5B. THURSDAY EARNINGS CALENDAR


21-May-20 MDT.N MEDTRONIC PLC Q4-Apr.20 0.77 1.54 -50.0 6:45 AM

21-May-20 BBY.N BEST BUY CO INC Q1-Apr.20 0.41 1.02 -59.5 7:00 AM

21-May-20 HRL.N HORMEL FOODS CORP Q2-Apr.20 0.43 0.46 -7.3 8:30 AM

21-May-20 TJX.N TJX COMPANIES INC Q1-Apr.20 -0.16 0.57 -127.6 8:30 AM

21-May-20 A.N AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC Q2-Apr.20 0.61 0.71 -14.6 4:00 PM

21-May-20 HPE.N HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE CO Q2-Apr.20 0.30 0.42 -28.7 4:00 PM

21-May-20 INTU.OQ INTUIT INC Q3-Apr.20 4.84 5.55 -12.8 4:00 PM

21-May-20 NVDA.OQ NVIDIA CORP Q1-Apr.20 1.68 0.88 91.0 4:00 PM

21-May-20 ROST.OQ ROSS STORES INC Q1-Apr.20 0.05 1.15 -95.5 4:00 PM




FRIDAY: MAY 22

EXHIBIT 6B. FRIDAY EARNINGS CALENDAR


22-May-20 DE.N DEERE & CO Q2-Apr.20 1.77 3.52 -49.7 8:30 AM




SECTION C: EARNINGS DATA TABLES

EXHIBIT 1C. S&P 500: Q1 2020 EARNINGS SCORECARD

Sector Above Match Below Surprise Reported IndexConsumer Discretionary 52.4% 2.4% 45.2% -7.7% 42 62 Consumer Staples 77.8% - 22.2% 5.4% 27 33 Energy 70.4% 7.4% 22.2% 123.8% 27 27 Financials 55.4% - 44.6% -17.5% 65 66 Health Care 80.4% 5.4% 14.3% 8.6% 56 60 Industrials 67.1% 5.7% 27.1% 10.7% 70 72 Materials 82.1% 3.6% 14.3% 8.1% 28 28 Real Estate 45.2% 12.9% 41.9% -1.9% 31 31 Information Technology 76.3% 8.5% 15.3% 9.2% 59 71 Communication Services 66.7% 4.8% 28.6% -1.0% 21 22 Utilities 57.1% 7.1% 35.7% 3.8% 28 28 S&P 500 66.5% 5.1% 28.4% 3.2% 454 500


EXHIBIT 2C. S&P 500: Q1 2020 EARNINGS GROWTH

Sector Today 1 Apr 1 Jan 1 Oct 1 Jul

Consumer Discretionary -45.5% -22.9% 4.0% 7.1% 8.1% Consumer Staples 5.2% -0.4% 4.4% 5.6% 6.0% Energy -30.5% -37.7% 26.7% 46.4% 64.3% Financials -37.9% -4.2% 2.3% 3.4% 6.7% Health Care 6.9% 2.4% 7.1% 6.2% 6.3% Industrials -29.8% -26.2% 0.3% 8.5% 9.9% Materials -12.3% -12.3% 7.3% 14.1% -1.2% Real Estate -3.8% 1.8% 4.3% 4.1% 2.9% Information Technology 6.9% 3.3% 6.0% 7.8% 9.0% Communication Services 1.9% 9.1% 16.4% 19.4% 19.2% Utilities 4.2% 2.2% 3.4% 3.2% 4.0% S&P 500 -12.1% -4.7% 6.3% 8.9% 10.2%




Consumer Discretionary -106.2% -33.0% 9.7% 14.2% 17.2% Consumer Staples -15.7% 0.7% 5.0% 5.9% 7.3% Energy -154.9% -92.6% 10.5% 22.1% 24.5% Financials -46.3% -9.4% 0.7% 1.5% 10.2% Health Care -15.6% 0.7% 3.9% 2.6% 8.5% Industrials -87.2% -32.8% 21.5% 27.2% 17.1% Materials -36.6% -11.0% 11.1% 13.8% 17.2% Real Estate -12.9% 1.8% 6.9% 6.4% 7.6% Information Technology -8.0% 2.0% 7.6% 8.9% 15.8% Communication Services -29.4% -4.1% 8.7% 10.9% 11.1% Utilities -2.1% 3.6% 5.7% 4.4% 4.7% S&P 500 -41.9% -11.7% 7.2% 9.2% 12.8%





Sector Today 1 Apr 1 Jan 1 Oct

Consumer Discretionary -43.9% -6.8% 11.7% 14.6% Consumer Staples -5.1% 3.3% 5.9% 8.1% Energy -127.1% -71.0% 30.1% 32.4% Financials -32.9% -3.1% 9.4% 8.6% Health Care -1.5% 7.6% 7.5% 12.8% Industrials -57.1% -17.2% 10.0% 15.5% Materials -24.8% -2.3% 15.7% 20.4% Real Estate -11.3% 0.2% 4.8% 6.9% Information Technology -3.7% 5.3% 10.2% 15.1% Communication Services -18.0% 4.1% 12.7% 12.3% Utilities 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 7.4% S&P 500 -24.0% -2.7% 10.1% 13.2%

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv EXHIBIT 5C. S&P 500: Q4 2020 EARNINGS GROWTH

Sector Today 1 Apr 1 Jan

Consumer Discretionary -19.4% 2.5% 25.2% Consumer Staples 0.4% 5.1% 8.2% Energy -111.1% -54.2% 15.8% Financials -27.3% -0.3% 12.2% Health Care 8.2% 11.2% 14.6% Industrials -26.8% 7.3% 19.5% Materials -9.2% 5.5% 21.9% Real Estate -7.0% 2.5% 10.3% Information Technology 1.4% 6.8% 15.5% Communication Services -14.6% -1.7% 9.2% Utilities 8.6% 7.6% 8.5% S&P 500 -12.5% 2.7% 14.5%



Sector Today 1 Apr Consumer Discretionary 57.6% 38.3% Consumer Staples 2.0% 8.2% Energy -88.4% -22.7% Financials 31.1% 2.6% Health Care 10.1% 13.6% Industrials 12.2% 34.1% Materials 14.7% 23.2% Real Estate 4.8% 5.0% Information Technology 10.6% 18.5% Communication Services 10.5% 14.7% Utilities 2.0% 4.3% S&P 500 11.9% 14.0%




EXHIBIT 7C. S&P 500: CY 2020 EARNINGS GROWTH


Consumer Discretionary -52.2% -13.3% 12.5% 12.1% 12.2% Consumer Staples -3.9% 2.4% 5.9% 7.0% 6.8% Energy -111.2% -58.7% 23.0% 29.7% 29.1% Financials -36.5% -5.2% 5.3% 5.3% 8.4% Health Care -0.8% 5.9% 8.8% 9.7% 9.5% Industrials -50.0% -16.4% 13.2% 16.7% 12.7% Materials -20.2% -4.0% 13.8% 16.0% 13.7% Real Estate -7.8% 1.9% 6.5% 6.0% 6.1% Information Technology -0.7% 4.7% 10.2% 12.1% 13.3% Communication Services -15.5% 2.2% 11.4% 13.1% 12.5% Utilities 1.7% 2.9% 4.6% 5.1% 5.9% S&P 500 -22.6% -3.5% 9.7% 11.2% 11.5%

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv EXHIBIT 8C. S&P 500: CY 2021 EARNINGS GROWTH

Sector Today 1 Apr

Consumer Discretionary 94.4% 27.4% Consumer Staples 8.6% 7.3% Energy 424.9% 61.2% Financials 39.6% 9.8% Health Care 16.7% 11.1% Industrials 74.5% 33.6% Materials 30.2% 19.9% Real Estate 9.9% 6.6% Information Technology 18.5% 17.0% Communication Services 26.0% 15.4% Utilities 6.0% 5.2% S&P 500 30.2% 16.1%


EXHIBIT 9C. S&P 500: BOTTOMS-UP EPS ACTUALS AND ESTIMATES

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 CY 2006 20.73 22.31 22.60 22.44 88.18 2007 22.71 24.40 21.31 16.14 85.12 2008 18.96 19.78 17.49 5.62 65.47 2009 12.83 16.03 16.36 16.80 60.80 2010 19.71 21.48 21.75 22.55 85.28 2011 23.50 24.14 25.65 24.55 97.82 2012 25.60 25.84 26.00 26.32 103.80 2013 26.74 27.40 27.63 28.62 109.68 2014 28.18 30.07 30.04 30.54 118.78 2015 28.60 30.09 29.99 29.52 117.46 2016 26.96 29.61 31.21 31.30 118.10 2017 30.90 32.58 33.45 36.02 132.00 2018 38.07 41.00 42.66 41.18 161.93 2019 39.15 41.31 42.14 41.98 162.93 2020 33.49 23.78 31.92 36.65 126.33 2021 37.12 38.63 42.66 45.24 164.48 2022 186.59




EXHIBIT 10C. S&P 500: ACTUAL EARNINGS GROWTH RATES

Sector 19Q4 19Q3 19Q2 19Q1 18Q4

Consumer Discretionary 2.5% 1.8% 2.7% 8.1% 18.1%

Consumer Staples 2.6% 3.7% 1.7% 1.0% 4.6%

Energy -41.2% -37.8% -8.8% -26.1% 81.4%

Financials 10.2% 2.6% 10.0% 8.0% 15.6%

Health Care 10.1% 8.8% 10.3% 10.3% 13.3%

Industrials -9.3% 3.4% -9.5% 6.9% 27.0%

Materials -12.4% -10.9% -12.7% -13.4% 6.1%

Real Estate 7.0% 5.9% 3.1% 6.2% 6.2%

Information Technology 9.2% -1.7% -2.2% -1.1% 10.3%

Communication Services 8.2% -1.4% 17.6% -9.9% 26.4%

Utilities 17.8% 6.7% 1.1% -0.5% -10.4%

S&P 500 3.1% -0.3% 3.2% 1.6% 16.9%


EXHIBIT 11C. S&P 500: ACTUAL VS. ESTIMATE (ABOVE/MATCH/BELOW)

19Q4 19Q3 19Q2 19Q1 18Q4 Above 70.1% 75.2% 73.9% 75.7% 69.3% Match 9.0% 6.8% 8.0% 5.8% 7.6% Below 20.9% 18.0% 18.0% 18.5% 23.1%


EXHIBIT 12C. S&P 500: ACTUAL VS. ESTIMATE (AGGREGATE DIFFERENCE)

19Q4 19Q3 19Q2 19Q1 18Q4 Surprise Factor 4.6% 4.5% 5.6% 6.0% 3.4%




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