This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic...
If you can't read please download the document
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual
future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand,
and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in
technology, the development of new supply sources, political
events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and
under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the
Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The
information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and
forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as
publically-available information from external sources including
the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or
reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All
rights reserved. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Nick Jones
February 3, 2015
Slide 2
2 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy trade flows Energy Outlook
Development 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types
technology & policy
Slide 3
3 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Peoples Living Standards
Depend on Energy
Slide 4
4 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Peoples Living Standards
Depend on Energy
Slide 5
5 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Peoples Living Standards
Depend on Energy
Slide 6
6 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 13,000 AA batteries 4,000
smart phone batteries Energy Measures and Units 24,500 BTU1 log= 5
logs1 gallon gasoline= 36 kWh=
Slide 7
7 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2010 U.S. Daily Per Capita
Energy Demand 7 6 Household Use Personal Transportation 6
Commercial Transportation 4 Industrial 11 Commercial Buildings 34
Total 7
Slide 8
8 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2010 World Daily Energy
Demand 34 U.S. Per Capita 7 Times 7 billion people = ~12 billion
gallons per day 260 MBDOE 525 QUADS 9 World Per Capita 1.7
Slide 9
9 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Energy Use Evolves Over
Time Quadrillion BTUs Global Mix of Fuels Biomass Coal Oil Gas
Hydro Nuclear Biomass Coal Oil Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960) Other Renewables
180019002000185019502040
Slide 10
10 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Progress Drives
Demand Population Billion GDP Trillion 2010$ Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs OECD* Key Growth China India Rest of World Energy
Savings *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Slide 11
11 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy The Middle Class
Continues to Grow Billion People China India Key Growth Rest of
World OECD* Middle Class per The Brookings Institution Brazil
Mexico South Africa Nigeria Saudi Arabia Indonesia Thailand Egypt
China India Turkey Iran *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth
countries
Slide 12
12 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Urbanization &
Major Cities (2040) 2040 Percentage Urban 0-50% 50-75% 75-100% 2010
City 10 million + 2040 City 10 million + Source: United Nations and
ExxonMobil estimates
Slide 13
13 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Primary Energy Demand by
Sector Quadrillion BTUs 10 25 40
TransportationRes/CommIndustrialElectricity Generation Electricity
Generation Leads Growth
Slide 14
14 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Transportation
Slide 15
15 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Sector Demand MBDOE Light
Duty Marine Rail Heavy Duty Aviation Transportation Demand
Slide 16
16 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2040 LDV Fleet Base Fleet
Population Growth Improved Standard of Living Light Duty Vehicle
Fleet and Demand World LDV Demand MBDOE Improved Standard of Living
Population Growth Million *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth
countries Energy Savings
Slide 17
17 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Transportation Fuel
Demand World MBDOE United States MBDOE Diesel Gasoline Ethanol
Biodiesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Natural Gas
Slide 18
18 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy z Industrial
Slide 19
19 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Industrial Demand
Industrial Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Other Energy Industry
Heavy Industry Chemical Plastics Fertilizer Paint Steel Textiles
Liquid Fuels Coal Natural Gas Agriculture Lubricants Asphalt
Automobiles
Slide 20
20 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Industrial Demand Growth
Shifts; Intensity Improves Quadrillion BTUs Industrial Demand
GrowthIndustrial Energy Intensity OECD* China India Key Growth Rest
of World 95 10 25 40 Thousand BTUs per Dollar of GDP *Mexico and
Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Slide 21
21 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Chemical Demand 10 25 40
Quadrillion BTUs Chemical Demand by Fuel TypeChemical Demand by
Region Quadrillion BTUs United States OECD* China India Key Growth
Rest of World *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth
countries
Slide 22
22 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Electricity
Generation
Slide 23
23 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Improved Standard of
Living Population Growth Electricity Demand Electricity Demand by
Region Thousand TWh Electricity Demand Thousand TWh United States
India Europe China Key Growth 2014 Industrial Growth Base
Demand
Slide 24
24 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy GW Global Capacity
Utilized Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves k TWh By
Generation Wind & Solar Oil Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Gas
10 40
Slide 25
25 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation
Fuel by Region Quadrillion BTUs 10 25 40 Key Growth Oil Gas Coal
Nuclear Solar Wind Other *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth
countries
Slide 26
26 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Demand 2040 By
Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 Average
Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0% 2010 0.8% 1.6% 2.3% 0.5% 5.8% 1.8%
0.1%
Slide 27
27 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy CO 2 Emissions
Slide 28
28 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy World Emissions Billion
metric tonnes CO 2 Emissions by Region OECD* Rest of World India
China Key Growth *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth
countries Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person 10 40
Slide 29
29 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Supply z z
Slide 30
30 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Conventional Crude &
Condensate Liquids Supply MBDOE World Supply by Type Trillion
Barrels Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates Biofuels Other
Tight Oil Oil Sands Natural Gas Liquids Deepwater Developed
Conventional Crude & Condensate New Conventional C&C
Development Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates
Slide 31
31 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by
Region North America MBDOE Other Natural Gas Liquids Biofuels Tight
Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development
Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand 1030204010203040
Slide 32
32 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by
Region North America Latin America EuropeRussia/ Caspian
AfricaMiddle East Asia Pacific MBDOE Biofuels Natural Gas Liquids
Other Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C
Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand
10304020
Slide 33
33 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Gas Trade Balance by
Region North America Latin America EuropeRussia/ Caspian
AfricaMiddle East Asia Pacific BCFD 10304020 Demand Unconventional
Production Conventional Production
Slide 34
34 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Indicative trade flows
Energy Trade
Slide 35
35 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Local Production Pipeline
LNG Local Production Energy Trade BCFD Gas DemandLiquids Demand
MBDOE Imports/Exports
Slide 36
36 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Developing Economies
Dominate Growth OECD* Rest of World India China Key Growth
Quadrillion BTUs Demand by Region *Mexico and Turkey included in
Key Growth countries