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?CAN WIND POWER BE A

VIABLE ENERGY SOURCE FOR THE US?

Group Information

Environment 110Section: 002GSI: Matthew Densmore

James Baubiejrbaubie@umich.edu

Rachael Shapelyracheal@umich.edu

David Horvathdhorv@umich.edu

The Breakdown

Objectives:– Understand origins of wind power– Analyze global utilization of wind power– Analyze U.S. utilization of wind power– Understand how the U.S. can use wind power

more effectively.– Understand the benefits and challenges

associated with wind power– Discover US wind power ambitions and their

feasibility

The Quest for Renewable Energy• Experiencing a global energy crisis• The world runs on fossil fuels

– 80% of the world’s energy comes from fossil fuels (Peak Oil, 2007)

• Oil production is increasing rapidly– Rapid industrialization of India and China will further compound the energy problem

• Our current rate of consumption is not sustainable– Depletion of natural reserves– Source of devastating pollution– Contributor to global warming

• We need a new source of alternative energy– Hydroelectric, solar, geothermal, wind?

Global Wind Initiatives• Wind has emerged as a leader in global renewable energy• Worldwide wind produces only .9% of electricity• But many developed nations now derive a large percentage of

their energy from wind power• Leaders in wind power utilization like Denmark acquire 21.4%

of their energy from the wind

The US’s Wind Initiatives• The US is the world’s largest consumer of energy• Despite being the world’s biggest energy consumer, the US is

lagging behind most of the developed world in harnessing wind power

• Currently wind technology only accounts for 0.8% of overall electricity generation in the U.S.

• But, the US Department of Energy is working to expand our wind power capabilities

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/41435.pdf

The Stella Model• Hypothesis:

The US Department of Energy’s plan to supply 20% of our electrical power with wind power could be a viable solution to our nation’s energy crisis.

• Model Goal:Discover under what conditions the U.S. can meet roughly 20% of electricity generation with wind power.

• The model will also estimate the cost of this implementation.

Data and Assumptions

• 1,532 wind turbines constructed in 2006 with an average power output of 1.6 megawatts.

• Capital cost per megawatt is $1.48 million• Capital costs of turbine construction represent 80% of total

costs with the other 20% representing turbine operational and maintenance costs (Denny and O’Malley, 2006).

• Current U.S. wind power generation capacity is 11,575 megawatts.

• Wind turbines have a life of 30 years.• U.S. electricity production capacity is 1,075,677 megawatts

and remains constant. *Unless otherwise stated data comes from (Wiser, R., Bolinger, M., 2007)

Scenario 1• Scenario 1 assumes

average turbine output and rate of turbine construction to be constant.

• 20.7% of U.S. electricity generation capacity is met by wind by 2095.

Wind Generated Power (in megawatts)

Percent of U.S. Electricity Generated by Wind

Scenario 2

• Rate of turbine construction increases by 500 turbines per year every 5.5 years.

• Average new turbine power output increases by 0.1 megawatts every 2.2 years.

• 20.9% of U.S. electricity generation is provided by wind power by 2040.

• Wind generated power is 224,530.5 megawatts.

Percent of U.S. Electricity Generated by Wind

Wind Generated Power (in megawatts)

Cost of the Implementation

• The estimated total cost of this implementation is approximately $400 billion.

• This figure includes the capital cost of constructing the turbines and the operational/maintenance costs over their 30 year life.

Total Implementation and Maintenance Costs[Scenario 2] (In millions of dollars)

Pros of Wind Power

• Clean nature of wind

• Power generated isn’t affected by changing prices of fuels that go into generating other types of power such as coal and natural gas (Doherty, Outhred, and O’Malley 2006)

• Wind is a domestic resource

• Lead to an economic investment of approximately $332 billion and more than 3,725,000 full time equivalency job years for construction and plant operation, largely focused in rural areas. (Lindenberg, Steve et al., 2007 )

• The power generated by wind turbines is “proportional to the cube of wind speed”. (Singh, Bhatti and Kothari 2007)

So What’s Stopping Us?Some Cons to Wind Power

• Capital Costs– wind may be free but wind turbines are expensive

– Capital construction costs comprise 75% - 80% of the total cost. (Denny and O’Malley 2006)

• Maintenance and Operational Costs – Comprise the other 20%-25%. (Denny and O’Malley 2006)

• Wind turbines cannot be efficient everywhere– Maximum efficiency = high wind velocity + low altitude

United States Average Annual Wind Power

Areas in dark blue have the most potential to generate wind power, but all places categorized as class 3 or higher, which includes most of the Great Plains is sufficient for most wind turbines

http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html

Some More Cons to Wind Power• Wind is intermittent and varies greatly by day and season.

http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-02m.html http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-03m.html

http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-04m.htmlhttp://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-05m.html

Conclusion

• The proposition of having the U.S. derive 20% of its electricity from wind power is realistic within the next thirty years.

• The estimated cost of $400 billion is large but not prohibitively so.

• Take Home Message: Wind power is a viable renewable energy source for the U.S., although it will never be able to provide 100% of all electricity because of its intermittent characteristics.

Works Cited• Denny, E., & O’Malley, M. 2007. “Quantifying the Total Net Benefits of Grid Integrated Wind”. IEEE

Transactions on Power Systems, VOL. 22, NO. 2: 605-614. <http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/59/4162574/04162588.pdf?tp=&arnumber=4162588&isnumber=4162574 > (23 October 2007)

• Doherty, R., Outhred, H., O’Malley, M. 2006. “Establishing the Role That Wind Generation May Have in Future Generation Portfolios”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, VOL. 21, NO. 3: 1415-1421. <http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/59/34850/01664979.pdf?tp=&arnumber=1664979&isnumber=34850 > (23 October 2007)

• Milliken, JoAnn et al. “The Advanced Energy Inititative”. Journal of Power Sources, Volume 172, Issue 1, 11 October 2007, Pages 121-131

• Rebenitsch, R. 2007. “Wind Energy: Power from the Prarie”. The Futurist, 41, 1: 6-7. <http://proquest.umi.com/pqdlink?Ver=1&Exp=10-21-2012&FMT=7&DID=1189106591&RQT=309&clientId=17822&cfc=1> (23 October 2007)

• Li, Minqi.Peak Oil, the Rise of China and India, and the Global Energy Crisis Journal of Contemporary Asia. Abingdon, Oxfordshire: Nov 2007. Vol. 37, Iss. 4; pg. 449, 23 pgs.

Works Cited Cont.• Singh, S., Bhatti T.S., & Kothan, D.P. 2007. “Wind Power Estimation Using Artificial Neural

Network”. Journal of Energy Engineering, September: 46-51. <http://scitation.aip.org/getabs/servlet/GetabsServlet?prog=normal&id=JLEED9000133000001000046000001&idtype=cvips&gifs=yes > (23 October 2007)

• Wiser, R., Bolinger, M. 2007. “Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power Installation, Cost, and Performance Trends: 2006”. U.S. Department of Energy: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy: 1-24. < http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/41435.pdf /> (23 October 2007)

• "Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States”. <http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html> (23 October 2007)

• Lindenberg, Steve et al. 2007 . “Wind Power Today”. U.S. Department of Energy: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy,: 1- 12. < http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/41330.pdf> (22 November 2007)

• “Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States: Map Description.” <http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/map_descript.html > (23 October 2007)

• Slide 3 Includes a picture that can be found in George Kling’s lecture notes at lecturetools.org.