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1
Third Quarter Economic Report 2016 &
Updated economic forecasts for 2016
11 November 2016
Hong Kong SAR Government
1
2
Highlights of the latest economic situation
• Hong Kong economy picked up slightly further to grow by 1.9% year-on-year in real terms in Q3
• External trade saw relative improvement amid subsiding headwinds
• Domestic demand also strengthened visibly
• Labour market remained in a state of full employment; inflation eased further
• Latest real GDP growth forecast for 2016 at 1.5%; underlying inflation forecast at 2.3%
3
Economic performance in Q3 2016
Hong Kong’s economic growth picked up slightly further in Q3
4
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
按年增減
Year-on-year change
經季節性調整後按季增減
Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
本地生產總值
Gross Domestic Product
1.9%
0.6%
5
External sector
5
6
Asia’s exports stabilised somewhat of late, alongside some improvement in global demand
6
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
以美元計價按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in US$ terms (%)
美國、歐元區及日本
的進口需求*Import demand of US, euro area and Japan*
選定亞洲經濟體的出口
Exports of selected Asian economies
註:
Notes:
選定亞洲經濟體包括中國內地、香港、印度、印尼、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、台灣及泰國。
Selected Asian economies include Mainland China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand.(*) 由於數據有限,美國、歐元區及日本的進口需求最新數字為2016年7-8月合併的數字。
(*) Due to data limitations, the latest figure for import demand of US, euro area and Japan is Jul-Aug 2016 combined.
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
貨物出口
Exports of goods
1.9%
0.4%
按年增減
Year-on-year change
經季節性調整後按季增減
Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
7
Hong Kong’s exports of goods also made further growth
7
2015 2016
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3
Mainland -2.0 -5.6 2.0 2.7
U.S. 1.0 -4.8 -1.4 0.2
E.U. -4.1 -2.6 3.8 -0.4
Japan -3.6 -3.3 -6.6 -1.1
India 7.9 15.8 28.0 15.8
Taiwan -15.0 -2.9 17.1 27.5
Korea -13.4 -14.0 3.2 6.7
Singapore -4.3 -0.4 -1.6 7.7
Total exports of goods by major market
Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
8
Services exports staged visible improvement and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow
8
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8服務輸出
Exports of services
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
-1.8%
1.8%
按年增減
Year-on-year change
經季節性調整後按季增減
Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
Travel services
Trade-related
services
Transportation
services
Financial and
business services
2015 Annual -3.8 -1.8 0.2 5.6
Q3 -3.8 -3.0 0.8 6.5
Q4 -6.7 -0.5 -2.7 -1.0
2016 Q1 -13.9 -2.2 -1.8 -0.6
Q2 -9.8 0.4 -1.3 -7.6
Q3 -9.0 0.6 1.8 -0.7
9 9
Exports of services
Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
Other major groups of service exports generally improved, though inbound tourism remained weak
10
Domestic sector
10
11
Private consumption grew modestly further
11
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
私人消費開支
Private consumption expenditure
1.2%0.7%
按年增減
Year-on-year change
經季節性調整後按季增減
Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
本地固定資本形成總額
Gross domestic fixedcapital formation
按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
本地固定資本形成總額
Gross domestic fixedcapital formation
按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
6.0%
12
Overall investment spending rebounded strongly
12
Machinery,
equipment and intellectual
property products
Building and construction
2015 Annual -5.8 2.9
Q3 -10.7 4.2
Q4 -12.9 -0.9
2016 Q1 -11.9 0.2
Q2 -11.2 3.5
Q3 6.1 3.4
Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
Overall investment spending
13
Labour market
13
Q12000
Q12001
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
低技術勞工
Lower-skilled workers
整體
Overall
失業率 (%)Unemployment rate (%)
專業及管理員工
Professional andmanagerial staff
2.1%
3.4%3.5%
Note: Not seasonally adjusted except for the overall unemployment rate.
14
Unemployment rate stayed at a low level of 3.4%
14
15 15
Year-on-year rate of change (%)
Nominal growth
Real growth
Index of payroll per person engaged (Q2 2016) 4.2 1.5
Average employment earnings of full-time employees (Q3 2016) 5.4 2.3
Among those: with elementary occupations 5.3 0.8
Note: (*) Excluding foreign domestic helpers.
Income*
Incomes sustained real improvements
16
Inflation
16
2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2
0.9 0.8
2.5 2.1
1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3
1.3
1.1 0.9
5.9
5.1
4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.3
4.0 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.3
2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.8
2.3 2.1
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15*Q1 16*Q2 16*Q3 16*
其他
Others
交通
Transport
私人房屋租金
Private housing rentals
食品
Food
基本綜合消費物價指數
Underlying CCPI
(%)(%)
Contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in the underlying Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) by major component
Note: (*) By reference to the new 2014/15-based CPI series.
17
Underlying inflation eased further
17
18
Property market
18
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16
整體住宅價格
Overall flat prices
按月升跌 (%)Monthly rate of change (%)
19
Property market saw renewed signs of exuberance
19
Cumulative increase in flat prices between
September and March 2016 (%)
Overall
+8.9
Mass market flats
+9.3
Large flats
+5.9
Note: Mass market flats refer to those with a saleable area of less than 70 m2, while large flats refer to those with a saleable area of at least 100 m2.
20
Transactions picked up again
20
4 494 4 586 4 6204 243
5 821
7 826
6 601
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
09/15 12/15 03/16 06/16 09/16
住宅物業買賣合約數目
Number of S&P agreements for residential property
1996-2015年每月平均
1996-2015 monthly average
21
Speculative activities and non-local demand accounted for very small shares in total transactions
21
0
5
10
15
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
01/12 07/12 01/13 07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16
宗數
Number佔總成交的百分比 (%)
Share of total transactions (%)
買家
印花稅
BSD
雙倍
印花稅
DSD
確認人交易及24個月內轉售個案Confirmor transactions and short-term
resale cases within 24 months
註 :確認人交易指於未完成交易之前轉售。
Note: Confirmor transactions refer to resale before assignment.
佔總成交百分比 (右標線)As a share of total transactions (RHS)
0
5
10
15
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
01/12 07/12 01/13 07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16
宗數 (左標線)Number (LHS)
佔總成交百分比 (右標線)
As a share of total transactions (RHS)
宗數
Number佔總成交的百分比 (%)
Share of total transactions (%)
雙倍
印花稅
DSD
買家
印花稅
BSD
非本地個人買家和非本地公司交易Purchases by non-local individuals and
non-local companies
宗數(左標線)Number (LHS)
1 000
1 500 1 500
569442
837
1 2231 378
1 160 1 164
1 715
2 606
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
07/05 07/05 07/05 01/16 02/16 03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/162013* 2014* 2015*註:(*) 每月平均數。
Note: (*) Monthly average figures.
涉及雙倍印花稅的住宅物業成交宗數
Number of residential property transactions subject to doubled stamp duty
22
Investment demand surged in the past few months
22
23
Mortgage payment to income ratio worsened again
23
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
供款與收入比率^ (%)Repayment-income ratio^ (%)
1996-2015年平均數
(1996-2015 average)
45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。這比率與
金管局公布的平均供款與入息比率不同,後者是新批按揭貸款申請人的每月償還債務與每月收入的比率。
The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median incomeof households (excluding those living in public housing). This ratio is different from the debt servicing ratio published by the HKMA, which is theratio of actual monthly debt obligations of mortgagees to their monthly income of newly approved mortgages.
註︰ (^)
Note : (^)
負擔較輕More
Affordable
負擔較重Less
Affordable2016年第三季 : 約59
2016Q3 : about 59
24
Total medium-term flat supply rose to a record high of 93 000
24
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
50 000
55 000
60 000
65 000
70 000
75 000
80 000
85 000
90 000
95 000
住宅單位數目
Number of domestic units
未來三至四年可提供的私人住宅單位數目
Number of domestic units to be available in the coming three to four years
以上數字包括已落成樓宇但仍未售出的單位數目、建築中而且尚未預售的單位數目,及已批出土地並可隨時動工的項目。
運輸及房屋局。
The above figures included unsold units in completed projects, units under construction but not yet sold by presale, and units from disposed sites whereconstruction may start anytime.Transport and Housing Bureau.
註︰
資料來源:
Note :
Source :
25
Outlook for the remaining 2016
25
26
US: Economic growth picked up in Q3, but the pace of expansion remained moderate
Euro area: Limited impact of Brexit thus far
Japan: Still-sluggish economic data
Asia: Solid economic growth in the Mainland, and generally stable economic performance in other emerging markets
Global economic growth likely to stay modest
Mainland economy expanded steadily in Q3
27
Export performance still depends on global demand conditions
Domestic demand continued to grow solidly
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
美國、歐元區及日本的進口需求* Import demand of US, euro area and Japan*選定亞洲經濟體的出口
Exports of selected Asian economies 中國內地的出口
Exports of Mainland China
以美元計價按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in US$ terms (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
社會消費品零售實質總額
Retail sales of consumer goods in real terms
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
固定資產投資名義總額
Fixed assets investment in nominal terms
實質國內生產總值
Real GDP
選定亞洲經濟體包括香港、印度、印尼、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、台灣及泰國。
Selected Asian economies include Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand.(*) 由於數據有限,美國、歐元區及日本的進口需求最新數字為2016年7-8月合併的數字。
(*) Due to data limitations, the latest figure for import demand of US, euro area and Japan is Jul-Aug 2016 combined.
註:
Notes:
28
Business expectations by sector (net balance*)
16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4
Import/export trade and wholesale -30 -8 -14 -14
Retail -47 -40 -38 -2
Accommodation and food services -15 -17 -11 +13
Transportation, storage and courier services +1 +8 +5 +12
Information and communications +13 0 +12 +15
Professional and business services 0 -11 -14 +9
Financing and insurance +7 +9 +6 +12
All sectors surveyed -11 -4 -6 +2
Local business sentiment turned slightly more positive
28
Note: (*) Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus the preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing “better” over that choosing “worse”. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend.
29
Hiring expectations by sector (net balance*)
16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4
Import/export trade and wholesale -3 -3 -6 -5
Retail +9 -2 -4 +4
Accommodation and food services +7 +12 +15 +16 Transportation, storage and courier services +10 +11 +18 +20
Information and communications +13 +12 +21 +13
Professional and business services +5 -4 -7 +15
Financing and insurance +7 +7 +10 +10
Hiring sentiment stayed positive
29
Note: (*) Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in number of persons engaged versus the preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing “up” over that choosing “down”. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend.
30
Hong Kong’s economic outlook for 2016
Exports: Only mild recovery Domestic demand: Holding up
Economic sentiment improved slightly of late
Stable labour market with favourable job and income conditions
Latest 2016 GDP growth forecast: 1.5%
Hong Kong economy grew by 1.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1-Q3, in line with expectations
31
Underlying inflation is expected to ease to 2.3% in 2016, as domestic and external cost pressures remain in check
5.3
4.7
4.03.5
2.52.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(最新預測)
(Latest forecast)
增減率 (%)Rate of change (%)
基本綜合消費物價指數Underlying CCPI
32
Latest economic forecasts for 2016 as a whole
Forecasts as released on
24 February
Forecasts as released on
13 May
Forecasts as released on 12 August
Latest forecasts
Real GDP growth 1-2% 1-2% 1-2% 1.5%
Underlying inflation 2% 2% 2.2% 2.3%
Headline inflation 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4%
32
33
A possible US interest rate hike by end-2016, but pace of future hikes still uncertain; monetary policy divergence among central banks
Uncertainties associated with the US economy and policy directions after the presidential election
Brexit still unfolding
Slow recoveries in the advanced economies
Financial markets still face risks of increased volatility under the complicated global economic and monetary environment
Heightened geopolitical tensions in various regions
Uncertainties that would affect the current outlook
34
Third Quarter Economic Report 2016 &
Updated economic forecasts for 2016
11 November 2016
Hong Kong SAR Government
34