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Third Quarter, 2016
Consumer Expectations Survey Report
A Quarterly Publication
Statistics Department
Central Bank of Nigeria
2
A Quar ter ly Publicat ion of the Centra l Bank of Nigeria
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Q3 2016 Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) was conducted during the period August 1-13, 2016. The
sample size was 1,950 households, drawn from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Master Sample of
Households. A response rate of 99.3 per cent was achieved.
The highlights of results from the CES are as follows:
Overall outlook of consumers in Q3, 2016 remained downbeat. This could be attributed to the bleak out-
look of consumers as they anticipated a worsening economic condition, drawing down on their savings or
getting into debt and a decline in net household income.
Consumers however, had a positive outlook for the next quarter and the next 12 months. The optimism
could be attributed largely to the expectation of improved economic conditions in the country, anticipated
increase in their net household income, which could lead to increased savings to meet their financial obli-
gations.
Respondents’ bleak outlook on economic condition, family financial situation and family income in the cur-
rent quarter was pessimistic across all income groups.
On average, more households nationwide expect some increase in their expenditure on basic commodities
and services in the next 12 months. Consumers expect to spend substantial amounts of their income on
food and other household needs, education, savings, medical care and purchase of consumer durables
Majority of consumers nationwide believe that the next 12 months would not be an ideal time to purchase
big-ticket items like consumer durables, motor vehicle and house & lot.
Most consumers expect inflation rate to rise in the next 12 months. The major drivers of the expected up-
ward movement in prices are: house rent, education, transportation, medical care, electricity, food & cloth-
ing and footwear
Majority of the consumers expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months as the index stood at 20.5
points. They also expect borrowing rates to rise and naira to depreciate.
3rd Quarte r , 2016
3
The overall response rate for the Q3, 2016 CES was 99.3 per cent. The distribution of respondents by educational attainment showed that 45.4 per cent had universi-ty education, 29.9 per cent had higher but non-university education, while 16.7 per cent had senior secondary school education. Respondents with primary and junior secondary school education accounted for 3.1 and 2.7 per cent, respectively; while those with no formal education accounted for 2.1 per cent.
Consumer Expectations Survey Report
About the Survey
The nationwide Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for Q3, 2016 was con-
ducted during August 1-13, 2016, covering a sample size of 1,950 house-
holds drawn from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Master Sample List
of Households. The states covered, the sample size distribution and response
rates achieved are as shown in the Table 1 below, while the location of all the
states in the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) covered are
shown in the Map of Nigeria below.
Table 1: The distribution of sample size and response rate
The Q3, 2016 CES was
conducted nationwide and
1,950 respondents were
sampled
A total of 1,937
questionnaires were
retrieved, representing
a response rate of 99.3
per cent
ZONE SAMPLE STATE
Q3 2016 SAMPLE
SIZE
Q3 2016
RESPONSES
Q4 2010
RESPONS
E RATE
North Central
Niger, Kwara, Abuja, Benue,
Kogi, Nasarawa and Plateau 350 342 97.7
North East
Bauchi, Adamawa, Gombe,
and Taraba 300 300 100.0
North West
Kaduna, Katsina, Kano,
Zamfara, Jigawa, Sokoto and
Kebbi 350 350 100.0
South East
Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi,
Anambra and Abia 250 246 98.4
South South
Edo, Delta, Rivers, Bayelsa,
Cross River and Akwa-Ibom 300 299 99.7
South West
Lagos,Oyo,Ekiti,Ogun, Osun
and Ondo 400 400 100.0
TOTAL 1950 1937 99.3
4
The consumers’ overall confidence outlook1 in Q3, 2016 remained downbeat as it has
been since Q3, 2011. At –28.2 index points, it dipped further by 26.3 points below the
level achieved in the corresponding quarter of 2015. The bleak outlook of consumers in
the quarter under review, could be attributed to the deteriorating economic condition
and decline in net household income, leading to draw-down on household savings or get-
ting into debt (Table 2, Section 2). The consumer outlook for the next quarter and next
12 months is however positive, at 17.8 and 32.1 points, respectively. The positive out-
look in the next quarter and the next 12 months could be attributed largely to the antici-
pated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions, expected increase in net house-
hold income and expectations to save a bit and/or have plenty over savings (Table 2,
Section 1).
Nationwide Consumer Outlook
1The overall consumer confidence index is determined by the average of three (3) measures, namely, the outlook
on macroeconomic conditions, family financial situation and family income.
Consumer overall
outlook in Q3 2016
remained downbeat
since Q3 2011.
Consumers’ Overall Confidence Outlook
-25.0
-15.0
-5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
-25.0
-15.0
-5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
Q2 20
09
Q3 20
09
Q4 20
09
Q1 20
10
Q2 20
10
Q3 20
10
Q4 20
10
Q1 20
11
Q2 20
11
Q3 20
11
Q4 20
11
Q1 20
12
Q2 20
12
Q3 20
12
Q4 20
12
Q1 20
13
Q2 20
13
Q3 20
13
Q4 20
13
Q1 20
14
Q2 20
14
Q3 20
14
Q4 20
14
Q1 20
15
Q2 20
15
Q3 20
15
Q4 20
14
Q1 20
16
Q2 20
16
Q3 20
16
Index
point
s
Index
Point
s
Current Quarter Next Quarter
Zero line Next 12 months
Fig 2: Nationwide Consumer Outlook Index
5
Consumers views were captured across three dimensions, namely: - economic condi-
tions, family financial situation and family income. Consumers expressed pessimism in
the general economic conditions, family financial situation and family income in the cur-
rent quarter. All the income groups opined that economic conditions, family financial
situation and family income were getting worse as they anticipated worsening economic
conditions, drawing down on their savings or getting into debt and a decline in net
household income.
Consumers expect to
spend substantial
amounts on education,
medical care,
investments, food and
other household needs
in the next 12 months
Respondents anticipate
a worsening economic
condition, draw-down on
savings or getting into
debt
Consumer Outlook Indices: Current Quarter
Consumer Outlook Indices: Next Quarter and the Next 12 months
At 17.8 and 32.1 index points, the overall consumers’ confidence index (see footnote 1) in
the next quarter and the next 12 months, respectively, were expected to be better than the
outlook in the current quarter. In the next quarter and the next twelve months, consumers
expect the general economic conditions in the country and the net household income to be
much better. Consequently, households expect to save a bit and/or have plenty over sav-
ings (Table 2, Sections 3 & 4).
On average, more households nationwide expect some increase in their expenditure on
basic commodities and services in the next 12 months. With an average index of 13.7
points, the index dropped by 4.5 points from the 18.2 points recorded in the corresponding
quarter of 2015 (Table 2, Section 5).
Majority of consumers nationwide expect to spend substantial amount of their income on
food and other household needs, education, savings, medical expenses, purchase of con-
sumer durables and investments in the next 12 months. On the other hand, they do not
plan to spend substantial amount of their income on large ticket items such as purchases of
house and car/motor vehicle. These results conform with the National Household Ex-
penditure Survey which showed that majority of households spend substantial amount of
their income to meet basic needs and have little left for long term investment (Fig. 3).
Expenditures in the Next 12 Months
-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Average Expenditure
Food & Other household needs
Education
Debt Payment
Medical Expenses
Savings
Purchase of Appliances
Investment
Purchase of Consumer durables
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle
Purchase of House
Others
Fig. 3: Confidence Index on Amount of Expenditure in the next 12 months
Expe
ndit
ure
Item
s
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
6
Most consumers nationwide expect the prices of the following expenditure items to rise
in the next quarter: house rent, education, transportation, medical care, electricity, food,
clothing & footwear and communication. Based on this outlook, they expect the
government and/or monetary authority to take appropriate measures to dampen the
impact of these inflationary expectations on the economy (Fig. 3b).
The overall buying conditions index for consumers in the current quarter for big-ticket
items stood at 36.2 points. This indicates that majority of consumers believed that the
current quarter was not the ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like consumer
durables, motor vehicles and house & lot.
Majority of consumers
nationwide, believed that
the current quarter was
not the ideal time to
purchase some big-ticket
items
Consumers expect
the prices of major
consumer items
to rise in the
next quarter
Buying Conditions2
2
Buying condition refers to the assessment of consumers as to whether it is good time, neither good
nor bad or bad time to buy assets (ie. consumer durables, house and lot, and motor vehicles) during
the quarter. An index above 50 means more respondents indicated that it is a good time to buy as-
sets; below 50 means more respondents believe that it would not be an opportune time to make pur-
chases; and 50 means the number of respondents on both sides is equal. BCI = 0.5(100+DI), where
DI = diffusion index
-15 -5 5 15 25 35 45
Food & Other household needs
Education
Debt Payment
Medical Expenses
Savings
Appliances/consumer durables
Investment
Car/motor vehicle
House
Others
Fig. 3b: Confidence index on price changes: Next quarter
Expe
nditu
re It
ems
Q2 2016
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2014
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Inde
x po
ints
Inde
x po
ints
Buying C Index Consumer Durables
Motor Vehicle Fifty-line
House & Lot
Fig. 4: Buying Conditions Index: National
7
Majority of consumers
believe that the next 12
months would be an
ideal time to purchase
consumer durables
Buying Intentions4 in the Next 12 Months
The overall buying intention index for consumer durables such as furniture, gas cooker,
refrigerator, air conditioner, television and other durables in the next twelve months
stood at 47.5 index points, indicating that majority of consumers believed that the next
12 months would not be an ideal time to purchase motor vehicle and house & lot. Con-
trarily, the buying intention index for the big-ticket items like consumer durables were
above 50 points, indicating that the next twelve months would be an ideal time to pur-
chase these items.
4
Buying intention refers to the assessment of consumers as to whether it is good time, neither good nor bad
or bad time to buy assets (ie. consumer durables, house and lot, and motor vehicles) during the next 12
months. An index above 50 means more respondents indicated that it is a good time to buy assets; below 50
means more respondents believe that it would not be an opportune time to make purchases; and 50 means
the number of respondents on both sides is equal. BI = 0.5(100+DI), where DI = diffusion index
Majority of consumers
expect unemployment to
rise in the next 12
months
Indices of Selected Economic Indicators
Majority of the consumers nationwide expect unemployment to rise in the next 12
months. The unemployment index for the next 12 months remained positive at 20.5
points, up from 12.5 points in Q3, 2015. With indices of 5.3 and –5.2 points, consumers
expect borrowing rate to rise and exchange rate to depreciate in the next 12 months.
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
Q2 20
09
Q3 20
09
Q4 20
09
Q1 20
10
Q2 20
10
Q3 20
10
Q4 20
10
Q1 20
11
Q2 20
11
Q3 20
11
Q4 20
11
Q1 20
12
Q2 20
12
Q3 20
12
Q4 20
12
Q1 20
13
Q2 20
13
Q3 20
13
Q4 20
13
Q1 20
14
Q2 20
14
Q3 20
14
Q4 20
14
Q1 20
15
Q2 20
15
Q3 20
15
Q4 20
14
Q1 20
16
Q2 20
16
Q3 20
16
Inde
x poin
ts Buying Intention Index
Consumer Durables
Motor Vehicle
Fifty-line
House & Lot
Fig. 5: Buying Intention Index: National
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Q2 2
009
Q3 2
009
Q4 2
009
Q1 2
010
Q2 2
010
Q3 2
010
Q4 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q2 2
011
Q3 2
011
Q4 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q2 2
012
Q3 2
012
Q4 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q2 2
013
Q3 2
013
Q4 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q2 2
014
Q3 2
014
Q4 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q2 2
015
Q3 2
015
Q4 2
014
Q1 2
016
Q2 2
016
Q3 2
016
Inde
x poi
nts
Inde
x poi
nts
Unemployment Rate Index Borrowing Rate index
Exchange Rate Inflation Rate index
Zero Line
Fig. 6a: Indices of selected economic indicators: next 12 months
8
Majority of consumers expect inflation rate to rise in the next 12 months as the index
stood at 23.3 points. The major drivers of the expected upward movement in prices are
house rent, education, transportation, medical care and electricity (Table 2, Section 8).
Major drivers of the
expected upward
movement in
prices in the next 12
months were house rent,
education,
transportation, medical
care and electricity.
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Food
Clothing & Footwaer
Electricity
Water
House Rent
Transportation
Communication
Education
Medical Care
Personal Care & Effects
Hotel & Restaurant
Others
Fig. 6b: Sectoral Indices of Price Changes over the next 12 months
Sect
ors
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
9
TECHNICAL NOTES
The overall consumer confidence index is computed as the average of the three indices, namely:
1. Economic Condition refers to the perception of the respondent regarding the general economic condition of the
country.
2. Family Financial Situation refers to the level of savings, investments, other assets including
cash at hand and outstanding debts.
3. Family Income includes primary income and receipts from other sources received by all family
members as participants in any economic activity or as recipients of transfers, pensions,
grants, and the like.
The confidence index or diffusion index is computed as the percentage share of respondents that answered in
the affirmative less the percentage share of respondents that answered negative in a given indicator. A positive CI
indicates that respondents with a favorable view outnumber those with an unfavorable view, except for unem-
ployment, change in prices and interest rate for borrowing money, where a positive CI indicates the opposite.
Buying condition and buying intention indices refer to the assessment of consumers as to whether it is good
time, neither good nor bad or bad time to buy assets (i.e. consumer durables, house and lot, and motor vehicles)
during the quarter. An index above 50 means more respondents indicated that it is a good time to buy assets; be-
low 50 means more respondents believe that it would not be an appropriate time to make purchases; and 50
means the number of respondents on both sides is equal.
BCI = 0.5(100+DI), where DI = diffusion index.
10
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3
1.
Ov
era
ll C
on
su
me
r C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x
All
Se
cto
rs
Cu
rre
nt Q
ua
rte
r
National
-1
.3-2
.4-2
.9-3
.6-1
0.0
-1
2.4
-1
.9-3
.0-1
0.3
-2
4.2
-2
8.2
No
rth
Ce
ntra
l-6
.33
.9-4
.30
.8-1
2.5
-1
4.6
-5
.5-7
.4-1
5.2
-2
6.8
-2
9.7
No
rth
Ea
st
-0
.2-1
3.3
-8
.5-1
5.9
-2
9.3
-1
5.1
6.0
-0
.9-5
.3-1
4.2
-2
5.4
No
rth
We
st
-4
.1-4
.1-1
.7-6
.4-1
0.4
-1
7.3
7.2
3.0
-9
.9-1
7.0
-1
8.1
So
uth
Ea
st
4.2
-3
.3-1
.92
.17
.9-1
.7-1
3.2
-1
1.7
-1
4.2
-4
0.9
-3
8.4
So
uth
So
uth
0.5
-0
.20
.8-2
.6-6
.1-1
1.9
-8
.1-8
.7-1
0.0
-2
6.1
-2
9.1
So
uth
We
st
0.3
-2
.3-2
.5-1
.6-9
.5-1
1.4
0.0
4.7
-7
.5-2
3.8
-3
0.7
Ne
xt Q
ua
rte
r
National
35
.43
2.9
29
.03
0.0
27
.12
7.0
29
.62
3.9
30
.02
0.3
17
.8
No
rth
Ce
ntra
l2
9.2
40
.23
0.1
30
.12
8.1
31
.03
2.4
26
.62
9.2
21
.61
5.3
No
rth
Ea
st
38
.61
8.7
20
.12
4.5
13
.92
9.3
28
.38
.63
1.7
25
.01
4.8
No
rth
We
st
33
.33
1.2
24
.72
2.9
22
.42
2.2
23
.51
6.4
28
.92
1.6
20
.4
So
uth
Ea
st
41
.52
8.3
23
.93
0.9
44
.73
1.9
27
.61
9.7
29
.11
0.7
17
.1
So
uth
So
uth
32
.63
0.6
31
.23
5.0
31
.42
3.7
26
.63
0.8
31
.91
2.1
13
.9
So
uth
We
st
39
.63
9.5
38
.93
3.8
24
.42
5.8
36
.73
4.1
29
.82
6.6
23
.1
Ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
National
35
.33
2.6
33
.03
4.0
35
.04
0.1
44
.14
1.5
40
.93
3.5
32
.1
No
rth
Ce
ntra
l2
8.0
35
.43
2.8
41
.73
7.4
45
.14
4.6
40
.23
9.6
30
.42
6.8
No
rth
Ea
st
37
.02
4.7
27
.22
3.8
28
.44
1.1
52
.53
8.1
41
.94
9.6
43
.5
No
rth
We
st
35
.12
8.9
35
.53
6.2
40
.95
1.3
50
.35
0.2
45
.94
0.1
42
.9
So
uth
Ea
st
42
.43
0.1
26
.92
9.9
36
.63
1.8
30
.63
2.1
34
.41
2.5
20
.4
So
uth
So
uth
33
.83
7.0
36
.73
7.5
39
.03
8.7
33
.53
8.3
38
.91
9.2
25
.3
So
uth
We
st
37
.93
5.6
35
.83
1.6
28
.03
2.0
50
.04
6.4
42
.84
2.4
30
.8
2.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utlo
ok
in
dic
es o
n t
he
cu
rre
nt e
co
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Cu
rre
nt Q
ua
rte
rN
atio
na
l
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n3
.41
.7-0
.5-2
.0-1
0.0
-1
3.7
5.3
5.3
-8
.5-2
3.2
-3
0.8
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-6
.0-1
3.5
-9
.0-1
4.9
-2
5.4
-2
2.1
-3
.5-8
.2-1
8.1
-2
2.5
-3
2.5
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
1.2
2.6
0.6
-2
.1-1
0.1
-8
.24
.85
.3-4
.3-2
2.0
-3
0.3
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
12
.39
.0-1
.33
.5-3
.5-1
1.7
10
.41
0.6
-1
0.7
-2
1.6
-3
1.1
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
5.6
11
.01
0.6
8.7
-0
.4-1
8.8
8.7
10
.4-3
.9-2
8.7
-2
9.5
Fa
mil
y F
ina
ncia
l S
itu
atio
n-1
0.0
-1
4.5
-1
4.0
-1
3.3
-1
6.3
-1
8.1
-1
5.4
-1
7.2
-2
2.8
-2
8.5
-3
1.9
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-2
4.2
-2
6.7
-3
5.0
-2
3.3
-2
4.7
-3
1.5
-2
1.2
-2
8.2
-3
7.3
-3
6.8
-4
0.1
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-9
.3-1
5.6
-1
2.4
-1
4.2
-2
1.0
-2
0.3
-1
9.6
-2
0.4
-2
4.1
-3
0.2
-3
2.6
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-5
.8-8
.6-7
.3-5
.0-8
.0-1
1.0
-1
1.1
-1
2.1
-2
1.5
-2
5.6
-2
8.9
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-1
.9-2
.13
.1-9
.2-6
.2-1
2.6
-7
.2-6
.6-9
.3-2
0.0
-2
4.7
Fa
mil
y I
nco
me
2.8
5.4
5.8
4.4
-3
.8-5
.24
.52
.80
.4-2
1.0
-2
1.7
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-8
.3-7
.9-3
.6-1
1.9
-2
7.4
-1
6.5
-0
.6-1
0.4
-4
.6-2
2.7
-2
7.4
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
2.6
7.8
5.4
5.6
-5
.2-4
.90
.66
.40
.6-1
8.4
-1
9.8
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
11
.41
6.9
14
.01
3.3
13
.92
.21
0.7
5.7
3.9
-1
9.3
-1
7.1
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
2.1
0.0
8.5
12
.40
.0-6
.59
.12
.8-1
.4-2
7.4
-2
6.5
3.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utlo
ok
in
dic
es o
n e
co
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Ne
xt Q
ua
rte
r
Na
tio
na
l
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n3
0.8
26
.92
7.2
28
.12
1.8
35
.54
1.3
38
.33
2.2
23
.41
8.6
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
18
.75
.21
4.7
3.8
-5
.31
1.2
21
.79
.61
4.1
14
.11
5.6
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
31
.22
7.0
23
.72
4.7
20
.23
2.1
42
.73
8.7
26
.42
0.1
11
.9
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
37
.33
6.8
34
.84
3.3
33
.54
1.9
45
.04
3.1
37
.92
4.1
20
.2
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
28
.62
9.6
36
.23
4.7
29
.54
6.7
46
.44
6.5
42
.43
4.9
31
.0
Fa
mil
y F
ina
ncia
l S
itu
atio
n1
4.7
12
.91
1.6
14
.11
0.0
15
.82
1.0
13
.31
3.0
3.7
2.0
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
8.0
5.8
4.2
0.9
-5
.5-3
.61
6.0
15
.44
.07
.68
.3
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
11
.29
.44
.51
2.1
4.8
9.7
13
.99
.91
0.0
2.1
-1
.3
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
19
.91
9.4
19
.72
0.0
20
.42
3.5
27
.21
3.7
19
.83
.32
.4
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
18
.51
6.2
22
.72
1.3
17
.72
5.5
26
.91
7.6
12
.34
.12
.5
Fa
mil
y I
nco
me
60
.85
8.7
48
.14
7.0
49
.52
9.7
26
.42
0.1
44
.83
3.7
32
.7
Und
er
N20,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
55
.06
2.6
53
.54
2.2
48
.82
2.8
24
.82
1.0
44
.23
7.0
25
.6
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
61
.25
5.0
44
.35
0.7
55
.53
3.0
30
.61
9.3
40
.93
2.1
28
.5
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
59
.06
1.5
48
.74
7.4
43
.73
1.4
26
.41
9.2
46
.33
5.0
38
.0
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
66
.95
9.1
50
.24
4.7
46
.92
7.6
21
.02
2.4
48
.83
2.6
38
.2
20
16
TA
BLE
2N
atio
na
l
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
20
14
20
15
11
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3
4.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utlo
ok
in
dic
es o
n e
co
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
sN
atio
na
l
Eco
no
mic C
on
ditio
n2
8.1
25
.7
26
.3
28
.5
29
.8
40
.3
47
.1
46
.0
43
.8
31
.1
27
.2
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
17
.5
3.9
19
.0
3.3
4.1
11
.4
32
.6
15
.9
27
.6
23
.8
22
.7
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
26
.0
18
.6
19
.4
21
.3
20
.3
31
.9
40
.3
31
.9
35
.3
20
.0
16
.2
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
31
.8
34
.7
27
.7
36
.6
39
.0
44
.9
45
.8
53
.5
45
.3
31
.8
26
.4
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
30
.9
35
.9
39
.9
41
.7
44
.7
54
.3
60
.5
62
.2
55
.1
47
.5
44
.2
Fa
mily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
atio
n1
8.5
17
.4
13
.9
18
.7
16
.4
23
.9
27
.8
20
.3
21
.2
9.9
8.4
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
10
.6
7.8
1.1
5.7
-7
.2
3.5
13
.7
1.4
15
.7
10
.9
4.3
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
7.4
9.1
4.2
11
.5
2.5
9.6
14
.8
5.4
11
.6
-1
.7
4.1
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
27
.2
22
.9
23
.6
24
.7
27
.8
30
.1
32
.0
27
.1
24
.0
17
.5
9.8
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
25
.3
27
.4
24
.0
28
.0
33
.5
37
.8
41
.1
35
.0
28
.2
15
.4
13
.9
Fa
mily
In
co
me
59
.4
54
.7
59
.0
54
.5
58
.8
56
.2
57
.6
58
.1
57
.9
59
.5
60
.6
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
49
.7
29
.9
44
.3
31
.6
7.5
33
.3
47
.8
46
.3
53
.9
49
.1
44
.5
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
61
.4
61
.0
61
.8
54
.3
64
.4
58
.5
60
.5
57
.5
57
.5
57
.2
62
.1
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
59
.5
56
.0
62
.0
59
.1
66
.2
59
.5
58
.1
60
.0
59
.1
62
.8
61
.5
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
60
.7
57
.1
60
.1
61
.4
66
.5
59
.8
57
.8
60
.1
58
.3
63
.4
65
.4
5.
Co
nfid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n A
mo
un
t o
f E
xp
en
dit
ure
s:
Ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Av
era
ge
14
.2
11
.6
15
.1
13
.8
15
.2
12
.2
18
.2
13
.3
15
.0
11
.8
13
.7
Fo
od
& O
the
r h
ou
se
ho
ld n
ee
ds
59
.4
54
.7
59
.0
54
.5
58
.8
56
.2
57
.6
58
.1
57
.9
59
.5
60
.6
Ed
uc
atio
n5
6.7
56
.0
58
.1
54
.2
55
.7
54
.4
58
.4
58
.2
58
.2
54
.2
54
.9
De
bt P
aym
en
t3
.6
-1
.1
2.7
-0
.9
5.8
-6
.5
-2
.3
0.4
2.8
1.2
3.4
Me
dic
al E
xp
en
se
s1
2.5
12
.7
17
.7
10
.6
16
.5
8.8
12
.9
8.8
9.6
11
.0
14
.8
Sa
vin
gs
20
.3
16
.3
20
.6
24
.9
21
.3
18
.6
30
.7
22
.5
25
.4
13
.7
17
.8
Pu
rc
ha
se
of A
pp
lia
nc
es
3.1
1.2
4.1
2.4
6.5
0.2
11
.0
0.2
5.1
-1
.2
-3
.9
Inve
stm
en
t8
.6
6.1
13
.7
14
.7
9.5
9.8
19
.5
11
.4
16
.1
10
.4
11
.0
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
on
su
me
r d
ura
ble
s
10
.6
10
.9
15
.9
12
.6
13
.5
13
.0
18
.0
10
.8
14
.4
7.9
13
.4
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
ar/M
oto
r V
eh
icle
-1
1.7
-1
5.0
-1
1.3
-8
.1
-9
.1
-1
0.7
-4
.8
-1
2.3
-9
.5
-1
1.7
-1
0.9
Pu
rc
ha
se
of H
ou
se
-1
0.9
-1
2.9
-1
2.7
-9
.6
-1
1.0
-1
0.2
-6
.2
-1
2.4
-1
1.0
-1
4.5
-1
3.0
Oth
ers
3.6
-1
.9
-1
.6
-3
.1
-0
.7
1.0
5.1
0.4
-3
.5
-0
.2
2.4
6.
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex:
Cu
rre
nt Q
ua
rte
r
Bu
yin
g C
on
ditio
ns I
nd
ex
4
4.0
42
.4
43
.3
43
.4
40
.0
39
.8
44
.1
40
.3
42
.6
36
.1
36
.2
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s5
1.4
52
.7
52
.9
52
.2
48
.1
47
.4
52
.3
51
.4
50
.2
39
.5
39
.1
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
41
.0
38
.8
39
.0
39
.6
36
.8
37
.0
41
.2
36
.0
39
.5
34
.5
35
.5
Ho
use
& L
ot
39
.5
35
.5
38
.1
38
.3
35
.2
35
.1
39
.0
33
.4
38
.1
34
.2
34
.0
7.
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
n I
nd
ex:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
ns I
nd
ex
5
1.2
49
.3
49
.8
50
.9
48
.1
51
.1
54
.7
50
.1
51
.8
46
.9
47
.5
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s5
9.3
58
.7
56
.9
59
.4
58
.2
62
.0
63
.9
60
.1
60
.6
54
.9
54
.2
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
48
.0
45
.5
47
.0
46
.9
43
.6
46
.2
50
.6
46
.9
48
.6
44
.0
44
.6
Ho
use
& L
ot
46
.3
43
.8
45
.7
46
.5
42
.4
45
.1
49
.8
43
.4
46
.2
41
.7
43
.6
8.
Ind
ice
s o
n S
ele
cte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
In
de
x
33
.3
32
.1
33
.5
24
.5
20
.5
14
.1
12
.5
11
.3
10
.0
17
.1
20
.5
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
in
de
x2
5.7
14
.2
16
.2
15
.6
6.7
-1
6.0
-5
.1
-6
.5
3.0
1.6
5.3
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te
-5
.5
1.2
-2
.8
1.8
-1
3.4
7.4
12
.4
10
.9
-1
.7
2.8
-5
.2
In
fla
tio
n R
ate
in
de
x4
3.4
38
.9
37
.5
36
.1
27
.7
14
.0
15
.6
13
.0
27
.4
21
.0
23
.3
9.
Se
cto
rs C
on
trib
utio
n t
o p
ric
e c
ha
ng
es o
ve
r t
he
ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Fo
od
57
.5
53
.7
51
.5
45
.2
41
.6
22
.9
20
.0
17
.6
33
.1
27
.1
24
.4
Clo
thin
g &
Fo
otw
ae
r4
8.3
39
.6
38
.6
38
.5
32
.8
15
.0
17
.0
13
.6
28
.1
17
.0
22
.1
Ele
ctr
icity
51
.4
41
.8
44
.5
43
.0
34
.7
12
.6
14
.4
19
.4
42
.4
31
.9
25
.5
Wa
ter
25
.3
23
.0
24
.0
20
.6
15
.9
2.4
-0
.7
2.5
19
.4
13
.2
12
.8
Ho
use
Re
nt
61
.5
60
.6
58
.3
53
.8
47
.5
29
.9
32
.7
28
.8
39
.6
38
.1
40
.0
Tra
nsp
orta
tio
n4
6.4
51
.2
43
.1
42
.4
24
.7
10
.2
14
.7
4.0
25
.6
18
.1
28
.9
Co
mm
un
ica
tio
n2
6.8
27
.3
22
.1
20
.6
12
.4
3.7
7.2
-0
.8
15
.6
10
.2
18
.0
Ed
uc
atio
n5
3.3
46
.7
47
.2
43
.3
34
.1
20
.1
26
.7
24
.5
34
.0
28
.4
36
.0
Me
dic
al C
are
49
.2
38
.3
41
.9
37
.9
30
.8
15
.1
19
.6
19
.2
29
.6
24
.8
27
.6
pe
rso
na
l C
are
32
.6
26
.2
25
.4
26
.8
19
.1
14
.8
13
.4
12
.1
22
.3
17
.1
16
.8
Ho
tel &
Re
sta
ura
nt
40
.4
32
.7
30
.8
36
.9
27
.3
15
.2
17
.2
10
.2
24
.0
16
.6
16
.5
Oth
ers
28
.4
26
.2
22
.6
24
.6
11
.7
5.6
5.5
4.9
14
.7
9.4
11
.4
10
. P
erce
nta
ge
of R
esp
on
de
nts b
y E
du
ca
tio
na
l A
tta
inm
en
t
Prim
ary S
cho
ol
4.3
4.3
4.6
4.1
2.6
2.4
2.6
3.7
2.1
5.0
3.1
Junio
r S
cho
ol
3.6
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.6
2.5
2.9
3.2
2.6
3.9
2.7
Se
nio
r S
cho
ol
14
.4
17
.6
17
.6
14
.9
19
.4
16
.6
15
.8
16
.4
14
.9
17
.2
16
.7
Hig
he
r no
n-univ
ersity e
ducatio
n2
8.5
30
.3
31
.1
31
.1
30
.7
30
.3
29
.9
28
.4
31
.3
28
.2
29
.9
Univ
ersity
45
.1
41
.5
40
.4
42
.7
41
.0
45
.9
46
.1
45
.9
47
.6
43
.1
45
.4
No
ne
4.0
3.1
2.8
3.8
2.6
2.2
2.7
2.4
1.4
2.7
2.1
11
. T
ota
l S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
lds a
nd
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
Nu
mb
er o
f S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
ld
s1
85
01
85
01
90
01
90
01
90
01
90
01
90
01
90
01
90
01
95
01
95
0
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
de
nts
18
45
18
44
18
95
18
82
18
93
18
86
18
80
18
84
18
82
19
44
19
37
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
99
.7
99
.7
99
.7
99
.1
99
.6
99
.3
98
.9
99
.2
99
.1
99
.7
99
.3
20
14
20
15
20
16
TA
BLE
2 (
co
ntin
ue
d)
Na
tio
na
l
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
IO
NS
SU
RV
EY
12
The North Central zone consumers’ overall outlook
remained downbeat in Q3 2016. At –29.7 points, the
index declined by 24.2 points below its level in the
corresponding quarter of 2015. The negative outlook
of consumers in the quarter under review, could be
attributed to the worsening economic condition, dete-
riorating total net household income and drawdown
on their savings/getting into debt (Table 3, Section
1).
Consumers’ outlook for the next quarter and next 12
months however was positive, at 14.8 and 24.8
points, respectively. The positive outlook in the next
quarter and the next 12 months could be attributed to
the expectation of improved economic condition in
the region and anticipated increase in their total net
household income.
On average, more households in the zone expect an
increase in their expenditure on basic commodities
and services in the next 12 months. With an average
of 18.0 points, the index rose by 1.8 points from the
16.2 points obtained in Q3 2015 (Table 3, Section 5
and Fig. 7).
Consumer Expectations
Q3 2016, North Central Zone
Consumer Outlook
The breakdown of the expected consumer expendi-
ture over the next 12 months were: food & other
household needs, education, purchase of consumer
durables, savings and medical expenses. However,
respondents do not intend to spend substantial
amount of their income on purchase of car/motor
vehicle and house.
The proportion of respondents that indicated inten-
tions to buy big ticket items in the next 12 months
dipped to 45.6 points compared with 52.4 points
obtained in Q3, 2015. The buying intention index
suggests that the next 12 months would not be an
opportune time to purchase consumer durables.
13
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.
Zo
na
l C
on
sum
er
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
xA
ll S
ect
ors
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
-6.3
3.9
-4.3
0.8
-12
.5-1
4.6
-5.5
-7.4
-15
.2-2
6.8
-29
.7
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
29
.24
0.2
30
.13
0.1
28
.13
1.0
32
.42
6.6
29
.22
1.6
15
.3
Ne
xt
12
mo
nth
s2
8.0
35
.43
2.8
41
.73
7.4
45
.14
4.6
40
.23
9.6
30
.42
6.8
2
. C
on
sum
er
ou
tlo
ok
in
dic
es
on
th
e c
urr
en
t e
con
om
ic a
nd
fa
mil
y c
on
dit
ion
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n-3
.61
0.1
11
.33
.2-4
.4-1
6.1
7.0
3.1
-8.7
-20
.7-2
7.4
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-39
.1-1
3.2
3.1
-5.3
-19
.3-1
5.3
-4.4
0.9
2.1
-22
.1-2
0.7
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-6.7
11
.71
5.3
-0.4
-2.8
-13
.11
1.6
2.7
1.4
-15
.8-2
5.7
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
23
.82
5.4
12
.00
.01
.5-1
3.5
17
.66
.7-2
6.7
-25
.6-3
7.5
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-3.4
-4.1
21
.92
7.6
1.4
-24
.02
.80
.0-1
3.2
-23
.3-2
5.6
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
-9.7
-13
.3-3
1.7
-10
.1-2
6.0
-22
.3-2
2.7
-22
.2-2
4.5
-33
.4-3
7.0
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-36
.4-3
5.1
-46
.0-1
5.8
-34
.3-3
1.7
-21
.4-3
6.6
-38
.0-4
4.2
-49
.4
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-8.7
-11
.7-3
2.4
-18
.4-2
5.0
-24
.7-3
4.3
-21
.7-2
8.4
-32
.0-3
3.6
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
5.8
-9.2
-16
.75
.8-1
7.8
-14
.0-3
.5-1
9.2
-16
.9-2
3.9
-35
.0
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-8.6
-2.0
-14
.1-1
2.2
-37
.1-2
4.0
-22
.6-1
6.2
-13
.2-3
6.0
-25
.6
Fam
ily
In
com
e-5
.51
4.9
7.4
9.3
-7.1
-5.4
-0.9
-2.9
-12
.4-2
6.3
-24
.8
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-41
.8-1
0.5
-2.7
-21
.1-3
8.6
-14
.54
.4-1
2.5
5.6
-31
.4-3
4.5
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-3.4
12
.91
2.2
9.6
-3.5
12
.1-9
.9-3
.5-1
3.8
-13
.5-1
6.4
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
9.3
34
.52
2.7
7.0
19
.8-5
.11
6.9
1.0
-19
.8-2
3.9
-22
.5
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
0.0
2.0
-12
.55
1.0
-37
.1-2
3.9
-11
.30
.0-2
0.8
-60
.5-3
4.1
3.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utl
oo
k i
nd
ice
s o
n e
con
om
ic a
nd
fa
mil
y c
on
dit
ion
: N
ext
Qu
art
er
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n1
4.2
35
.62
8.3
36
.42
5.0
44
.94
5.7
39
.03
6.9
23
.11
4.8
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-52
.1-1
1.0
11
.2-1
5.4
-14
.62
3.1
26
.73
.32
1.3
2.6
2.3
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
21
.54
2.1
29
.13
5.6
32
.15
6.7
54
.74
5.2
33
.82
4.1
5.9
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
18
.44
5.6
28
.25
3.4
31
.34
7.2
48
.93
6.7
41
.22
2.4
22
.5
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
37
.53
3.3
57
.64
9.3
29
.04
5.3
48
.45
2.9
45
.34
6.2
35
.1
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
9.5
18
.91
4.0
16
.91
3.1
18
.22
3.7
14
.06
.8-0
.6-5
.5
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-6.4
26
.82
1.4
19
.21
2.5
16
.73
4.7
20
.05
.69
.20
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
5.7
7.4
3.0
4.8
8.0
25
.31
0.4
12
.51
0.8
0.0
-15
.1
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
7.8
24
.41
5.3
8.8
14
.81
8.2
34
.81
7.4
10
.3-1
9.8
2.0
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
27
.62
1.2
30
.44
3.7
24
.01
3.5
17
.28
.1-2
.41
5.2
-5.3
Fam
ily
In
com
e6
3.9
66
.24
8.0
37
.04
6.3
30
.12
7.8
26
.74
4.0
42
.33
6.7
Und
er
N20,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
40
.44
8.8
62
.45
1.9
56
.32
7.8
23
.02
6.7
37
.05
5.3
35
.9
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
74
.06
8.5
50
.75
1.5
54
.73
2.0
42
.52
5.0
37
.34
2.0
32
.5
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
60
.26
8.7
43
.52
4.8
40
.92
8.2
28
.31
6.5
42
.34
1.7
42
.2
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
67
.16
8.2
21
.72
6.8
26
.03
2.3
7.9
41
.96
0.0
28
.83
6.8
20
16
TA
BLE
3
No
rth
-Ce
ntr
al
Zo
ne
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y2
01
42
01
5
14
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3
4.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utlo
ok
in
dic
es o
n e
co
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n1
4.0
35
.3
30
.0
38
.6
34
.6
47
.2
53
.1
46
.9
48
.5
34
.6
24
.8
Und
er N
20,0
00 p
er m
onth
-9
.7-1
.91
7.1
6.1
25
.03
8.2
45
.23
3.3
34
.42
1.6
18
.1
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N
50,0
00 p
er m
onth
5.0
15
.21
5.6
18
.31
2.0
35
.34
1.8
33
.24
0.2
21
.42
0.5
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N
100,0
00 p
er m
onth
20
.14
9.6
37
.93
2.7
36
.65
4.5
58
.45
2.3
49
.53
9.2
26
.6
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er m
onth
25
.64
4.5
61
.97
0.8
62
.85
1.3
62
.95
8.5
61
.25
9.6
36
.6
Fa
mil
y F
ina
ncia
l S
itu
atio
n8
.9
15
.1
11
.8
19
.3
13
.3
22
.9
27
.8
16
.6
11
.5
-2
.3
-7
.3
Und
er N
20,0
00 p
er m
onth
-2
2.9
-3
.87
.10
.0-5
.92
1.1
21
.21
2.1
17
.80
.0-1
9.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N
50,0
00 p
er m
onth
-8
.9-6
.70
.01
0.0
-4
.21
0.3
11
.02
.01
1.5
-1
0.5
-1
0.3
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N
100,0
00 p
er m
onth
19
.71
8.1
24
.01
1.9
14
.42
9.4
34
.01
7.8
6.4
2.9
-6
.3
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er m
onth
26
.73
2.8
22
.03
9.6
41
.02
5.6
41
.33
0.2
14
.32
.75
.6
Fa
mil
y I
nco
me
61
.2
55
.9
56
.7
67
.2
64
.3
65
.1
52
.8
57
.0
58
.8
58
.9
63
.0
Und
er N
20,0
00 p
er m
onth
61
.14
0.4
39
.34
5.5
19
.16
7.6
43
.16
0.6
47
.84
7.1
54
.3
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N
50,0
00 p
er m
onth
57
.45
1.7
57
.45
5.6
51
.06
1.5
48
.94
5.9
63
.85
1.2
62
.8
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N
100,0
00 p
er m
onth
66
.06
2.5
61
.67
1.3
72
.26
4.2
54
.06
2.6
67
.96
6.2
64
.6
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er m
onth
58
.95
5.9
67
.88
0.3
85
.96
7.2
60
.96
0.4
49
.56
9.9
68
.3
5.
Co
nfid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n A
mo
un
t o
f E
xp
en
dit
ure
s:
Ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Av
era
ge
9.7
13
.4
15
.2
18
.9
9.4
19
.1
16
.2
11
.0
18
.3
13
.6
18
.0
Fo
od
& O
the
r h
ouse
ho
ld n
ee
ds
61
.25
5.9
56
.76
7.2
64
.36
5.1
52
.85
7.0
58
.85
8.9
63
.0
Ed
ucatio
n5
5.7
55
.95
4.4
65
.25
3.1
56
.04
8.5
55
.75
8.0
53
.65
8.3
De
bt P
aym
ent
-3
.2-9
.50
.3-4
.0-6
.3-6
.50
.3-3
.81
0.0
-4
.47
.1
Me
dic
al E
xp
ense
s-1
.7-5
.91
2.7
7.8
-3
.4-6
.36
.62
.61
1.9
-0
.11
4.3
Savin
gs
16
.22
7.4
23
.43
0.4
19
.33
3.6
28
.81
8.3
27
.31
7.9
19
.2
Purchase
of A
pp
liance
s0
.05
.9-1
.36
.1-4
.03
.35
.4-7
.63
.2-4
.03
.4
Inve
stm
ent
10
.51
1.3
20
.41
5.0
1.9
22
.92
4.6
9.2
22
.62
2.0
13
.2
Purchase
of C
onsum
er d
urab
les
11
.32
1.0
15
.72
2.4
11
.32
1.4
15
.41
6.1
27
.91
0.0
26
.8
Purchase
of C
ar/M
oto
r V
ehic
le-1
8.7
-9
.0-1
0.1
-1
.8-1
8.7
0.2
-9
.1-1
4.2
-4
.1-2
.7-5
.3
Purchase
of H
ouse
-1
7.5
-7
.7-6
.0-1
.4-1
5.9
4.9
-3
.6-1
3.7
-1
0.6
-4
.4-3
.7
Oth
ers
-7
.22
.70
.90
.91
.71
5.3
8.7
1.9
-3
.42
.91
.8
6.
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex:
Cu
rre
nt Q
ua
rte
r
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex
39
.6
44
.4
43
.9
42
.4
38
.5
43
.6
41
.7
37
.8
41
.5
31
.5
36
.3
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s4
7.3
57
.45
3.7
54
.74
6.4
47
.34
9.6
48
.54
3.8
36
.93
7.6
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
36
.03
9.5
39
.43
5.5
34
.84
2.3
39
.13
3.1
41
.22
8.9
36
.6
Ho
use
& L
ot
35
.63
6.2
38
.63
7.1
34
.44
1.3
36
.53
1.7
39
.62
8.8
34
.8
7.
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
n I
nd
ex:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
ns I
nd
ex
47
.2
49
.9
48
.5
49
.9
44
.6
58
.1
52
.4
48
.6
51
.7
41
.9
45
.6
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s5
4.5
57
.65
5.9
59
.65
6.6
61
.66
3.8
58
.35
5.8
48
.94
6.4
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
44
.04
6.9
45
.14
5.3
38
.75
6.5
48
.14
4.7
53
.83
9.5
46
.9
Ho
use
& L
ot
43
.14
5.3
44
.64
4.7
38
.55
6.2
45
.44
3.0
45
.63
7.4
43
.4
8.
Ind
ice
s o
n S
ele
cte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
In
de
x
29
.72
8.1
40
.31
8.6
10
.41
0.1
15
.28
.31
3.1
26
.92
7.0
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
in
de
x1
5.5
2.0
17
.51
0.6
4.6
-1
4.7
-1
0.1
-8
.31
.22
.63
.5
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te
-9
.51
8.6
-0
.64
.2-1
.41
8.6
13
.41
1.8
-8
.83
.7-1
0.5
Infla
tio
n R
ate
in
de
x4
5.8
45
.54
1.9
39
.02
9.6
19
.12
1.0
19
.32
6.5
27
.03
2.3
9.
Se
cto
rs C
on
trib
utio
n t
o p
ric
e c
ha
ng
es o
ve
r t
he
ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Fo
od
60
.76
3.9
54
.64
4.7
47
.43
3.8
28
.42
8.2
28
.64
1.7
25
.8
Clo
thin
g &
Fo
otw
ae
r5
6.2
53
.74
8.0
50
.33
0.9
22
.52
0.3
22
.72
7.4
18
.62
7.4
Ele
ctr
icity
53
.65
3.9
48
.65
0.0
38
.61
6.4
16
.12
7.0
43
.73
9.4
35
.0
Wa
ter
35
.52
6.3
34
.03
1.2
22
.36
.92
.41
5.7
24
.82
4.0
23
.3
Ho
use
Re
nt
65
.66
8.5
57
.46
1.4
50
.63
5.0
35
.53
0.5
33
.65
1.1
48
.7
Tra
nsp
orta
tio
n5
3.3
58
.04
6.0
52
.13
8.0
16
.81
8.2
14
.82
6.0
18
.93
3.8
Co
mm
un
ica
tio
n2
6.4
36
.73
2.0
24
.61
6.0
12
.62
0.6
7.3
19
.81
8.9
25
.8
Ed
uc
atio
n5
1.3
44
.04
4.6
34
.23
3.1
21
.32
9.6
25
.92
8.9
30
.64
2.0
Me
dic
al C
are
49
.64
1.8
41
.42
3.1
20
.32
0.4
22
.11
8.9
35
.42
1.1
37
.5
pe
rso
na
l C
are
35
.03
3.4
37
.12
7.6
14
.92
1.0
27
.82
0.6
23
.32
8.0
34
.1
Ho
tel &
Re
sta
ura
nt
38
.74
0.1
31
.74
3.8
33
.41
3.2
22
.11
3.1
13
.02
1.7
29
.3
Oth
ers
23
.82
6.3
27
.12
5.2
10
.39
.68
.77
.31
3.0
9.7
24
.5
10
. P
erce
nta
ge
of R
esp
on
de
nts b
y E
du
ca
tio
na
l A
tta
inm
en
t
Prim
ary S
cho
ol
2.0
1.4
2.3
2.4
0.6
3.0
1.8
3.5
3.2
5.1
3.8
Junio
r S
cho
ol
3.2
1.7
2.9
0.9
0.9
2.7
2.7
1.2
2.9
3.4
3.5
Se
nio
r S
cho
ol
17
.21
5.1
17
.71
7.6
18
.61
1.6
13
.68
.49
.41
7.7
15
.5
Hig
he
r n
on-univ
ersity e
ducatio
n2
8.1
34
.63
7.7
33
.33
3.4
29
.03
0.9
31
.43
1.3
33
.42
9.2
Univ
ersity
47
.04
3.1
36
.94
1.5
43
.45
0.1
47
.55
2.6
51
.33
6.0
45
.6
No
ne
2.6
4.0
2.6
4.2
3.1
3.6
3.6
2.9
1.8
4.3
2.3
11
. T
ota
l S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
lds a
nd
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
Nu
mb
er o
f S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
lds
35
03
50
35
03
50
35
03
50
35
03
50
35
03
50
35
0
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
de
nts
34
93
50
35
03
32
35
03
36
33
73
44
33
93
50
34
2
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
99
.71
00
.01
00
.09
4.9
10
0.0
96
.09
6.3
98
.39
6.9
10
0.0
97
.7
20
15
20
16
TA
BLE
3 (
co
ntin
ue
d)
No
rth
-C
en
tra
l Z
on
e
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y2
01
4
15
Consumers’ overall outlook in the North East zone
remained downbeat in the current quarter. At –25.4
points, the index dipped by 31.4 points from its
level in Q3 2015. The pessimistic outlook of con-
sumers in the quarter under review, could be at-
tributed to the worsening economic condition, de-
teriorating total net household income and draw-
down on their savings/getting into debt (Table 4,
Section 1).
Consumer outlook for the next quarter and next 12
months were positive at 38.8 and 49.2 points, re-
spectively. The positive outlook of consumers in
the next quarter and the next 12 months could be
attributed to the expectation of improved economic
condition in the region, anticipated increase in
their total net household income which could lead
to increased savings to meet their financial obliga-
tions.
On average, more households in the zone expect
an increase in their expenditure on basic commodi-
ties and services in the next 12 months. With an
average of 13.3 points, the index dipped by 1.0
points compared with the 14.3 points obtained in
the corresponding period of 2015 (Table 4, Section
5 and Fig. 8).
Consumer Expectations
Q3 2016, North East Zone
Consumer Outlook
The breakdown of the expected expenditure over
the next 12 months were: Education, food & oth-
er households needs, medical expenses, debt pay-
ment, savings and investment . Some consumers
indicated that they do not plan to spend substan-
tial amount of their income on purchase of
car/motor vehicle, house and appliances.
The proportion of respondents that indicated in-
tention to buy big ticket items in the next 12
months dipped to 51.6 points compared with
57.4 points obtained in Q3 2015. The buying
intention index suggests that the next 12 months
would be an opportune time to purchase consum-
er durables and motor vehicle .
-40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0
Average Expenditure
Food & Other household needs
Education
Debt Payment
Medical Expenses
Savings
Purchase of Appliances
Investment
Purchase of Consumer durables
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle
Purchase of House
Others
Fig. 8a: North East Confidence Index on Amount of Expenditure in the next 12 months
Ex
pe
nd
itu
re I
tem
s Q3 2016
Q2 2016
16
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.
Zo
na
l C
on
sum
er
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
xA
ll S
ect
ors
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
-0.2
-13
.3-8
.5-1
5.9
-29
.3-1
5.1
6.0
-0.9
-5.3
-14
.2-2
5.4
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
38
.61
8.7
20
.12
4.5
13
.92
9.3
28
.38
.63
1.7
25
.01
4.8
Ne
xt
12
mo
nth
s3
7.0
24
.72
7.2
23
.82
8.4
41
.15
2.5
38
.14
1.9
49
.64
3.5
2.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utl
oo
k i
nd
ice
s o
n t
he
cu
rre
nt
eco
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n9
.3-4
.30
.6-5
.2-3
1.0
-8.0
20
.02
2.0
6.8
-2.0
-8.2
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
6.9
-10
.0-6
.3-1
9.1
-27
.42
.92
3.1
24
.3-2
.0-2
.6-7
.7
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
11
.5-1
.22
.70
.5-3
7.8
-8.2
12
.11
7.3
11
.7-2
.6-9
.6
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
2.7
-1.9
-3.5
2.7
-24
.6-1
3.6
29
.93
0.8
4.5
6.9
-7.5
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
25
.0-1
0.0
34
.62
.6-1
8.8
-15
.22
1.9
19
.48
.3-1
7.6
-6.3
Fa
mil
y F
ina
ncia
l S
itu
ati
on
-18
.3-3
2.5
-19
.6-3
5.8
-29
.8-3
0.2
-19
.1-2
5.2
-30
.6-3
2.5
-39
.2
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-39
.7-4
0.0
-25
.9-4
0.7
-31
.0-5
8.7
-27
.8-3
9.2
-52
.0-4
3.0
-43
.1
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-16
.3-3
5.8
-20
.5-3
1.9
-37
.4-2
5.5
-24
.5-2
8.5
-32
.0-3
0.2
-40
.8
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-10
.9-2
1.3
-17
.6-3
5.7
-23
.0-2
0.0
-9.7
-16
.9-1
7.4
-31
.3-3
8.1
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-16
.7-3
2.5
3.8
-34
.2-6
.3-1
8.2
-12
.5-2
.8-1
6.7
-26
.5-3
1.3
Fa
mil
y I
nco
me
8.5
-3.0
-6.4
-6.8
-27
.2-7
.21
7.1
0.4
8.0
-8.1
-29
.0
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-17
.2-4
.4-8
.9-1
3.6
-23
.83
.81
8.5
-2.7
-12
.2-2
1.1
-41
.5
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
17
.36
.2-3
.6-9
.6-4
8.0
-15
.51
5.7
3.8
13
.5-6
.7-2
5.0
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-1.8
-9.3
-7.0
10
.7-1
.61
.82
0.8
-6.2
12
.10
.0-2
9.9
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
41
.7-2
0.0
-15
.4-1
5.8
8.3
-12
.16
.35
.61
2.5
-8.8
-20
.8
3.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utl
oo
k i
nd
ice
s o
n e
co
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n3
7.3
7.0
19
.81
0.0
2.2
28
.05
4.8
38
.23
4.2
53
.03
8.8
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
14
.3-1
3.9
13
.3-9
.17
.32
3.9
37
.53
4.4
32
.15
1.1
32
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
38
.85
.81
3.9
10
.6-1
3.1
21
.56
0.6
33
.63
2.5
46
.74
1.7
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
40
.88
.22
6.1
43
.61
2.1
26
.65
2.5
44
.43
1.2
61
.04
1.3
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
42
.53
8.0
45
.5-1
.82
8.1
51
.35
8.6
47
.94
8.5
57
.13
5.8
Fa
mil
y F
ina
ncia
l S
itu
ati
on
16
.0-1
.5-2
.81
5.2
-7.6
26
.43
6.9
6.4
19
.62
7.6
10
.0
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
4.8
-5.6
-8.3
6.1
0.0
52
.24
0.6
28
.11
5.4
37
.08
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
14
.9-6
.4-8
.91
7.6
-26
.19
.03
2.7
-7.4
3.0
17
.94
.3
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
18
.51
.61
0.4
32
.71
.52
8.1
42
.51
5.3
33
.83
9.5
10
.7
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
25
.01
2.0
0.0
0.0
28
.13
7.5
37
.12
0.8
41
.22
1.4
21
.7
Fa
mil
y I
nco
me
62
.55
0.5
43
.24
8.4
47
.23
3.6
-6.8
-18
.84
1.2
-5.7
-4.3
Und
er
N20,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
76
.26
3.9
53
.36
4.6
53
.72
6.1
-21
.9-5
6.3
51
.3-1
3.0
8.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
60
.65
3.8
49
.55
0.6
58
.63
3.0
0.0
-13
.14
8.0
2.4
-9.6
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
58
.54
5.9
32
.82
3.6
34
.83
9.1
-15
.2-8
.33
6.4
-8.1
-6.7
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
70
.03
2.0
18
.24
2.9
25
.03
5.0
2.9
-29
.22
0.6
-16
.7-1
.7
20
14
20
16
TA
BLE
4
No
rth
-Ea
st Z
on
e
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y2
01
5
17
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3
4. C
on
su
me
r o
utlo
ok
in
dice
s o
n e
co
no
mic a
nd
fa
mily
co
nd
itio
n: N
ext 1
2 M
on
th
s
Eco
no
mic C
on
ditio
n3
0.3
16
.8
21
.8
9.8
21
.0
36
.4
63
.9
43
.4
52
.6
60
.8
49
.2
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
20
.0
8.6
14
.0
0.8
8.6
25
.0
57
.4
44
.7
32
.8
51
.4
25
.7
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
25
.4
4.6
10
.5
9.4
5.7
24
.7
62
.2
29
.1
46
.6
57
.8
45
.4
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
34
.3
34
.9
23
.0
18
.7
37
.9
36
.0
62
.7
50
.0
57
.0
62
.3
61
.9
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
35
.0
17
.2
58
.3
9.1
47
.2
67
.7
72
.8
76
.6
70
.9
69
.0
49
.3
Fa
mily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
atio
n2
0.0
5.0
-0
.4
12
.8
4.0
31
.2
41
.3
12
.8
22
.4
34
.7
24
.9
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
6.7
0.0
-1
8.6
16
.7
13
.8
59
.5
33
.3
15
.8
15
.6
31
.4
8.1
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
5.8
1.3
-4
.2
5.6
-2
6.1
2.4
37
.2
-2
.6
0.0
28
.4
21
.6
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
31
.4
12
.7
14
.5
23
.9
30
.0
29
.3
49
.4
22
.6
37
.2
38
.2
23
.7
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
26
.7
3.1
0.0
3.0
41
.7
60
.4
42
.6
40
.6
44
.2
41
.4
40
.9
Fa
mily
In
co
me
60
.8
52
.3
60
.2
48
.8
60
.2
55
.8
52
.4
58
.2
50
.6
53
.2
56
.5
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
50
.0
34
.5
61
.6
33
.3
6.9
53
.6
48
.1
55
.3
48
.4
40
.0
33
.8
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
65
.9
50
.0
60
.0
53
.3
72
.2
48
.8
58
.0
55
.7
50
.6
52
.9
60
.2
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
61
.6
61
.1
55
.9
52
.2
62
.1
60
.7
53
.0
61
.3
50
.0
54
.9
57
.2
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
51
.7
56
.3
68
.1
57
.6
61
.1
62
.5
41
.5
60
.9
53
.5
58
.6
62
.5
5. C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n A
mo
un
t o
f E
xp
en
ditu
re
s: N
ext 1
2 m
on
th
s
Av
era
ge
13
.6
7.7
10
.5
5.0
5.2
11
.5
14
.3
7.2
8.8
13
.7
13
.3
Fo
od
& O
the
r h
ou
se
ho
ld n
ee
ds
60
.8
52
.3
60
.2
48
.8
60
.2
55
.8
52
.4
58
.2
50
.6
53
.2
56
.5
Ed
uc
atio
n6
4.5
54
.3
63
.4
51
.6
64
.8
55
.4
57
.9
66
.8
55
.4
53
.2
58
.5
De
bt P
aym
en
t1
6.3
24
.0
23
.0
8.2
22
.4
-0
.2
3.2
14
.2
8.8
18
.0
14
.5
Me
dic
al E
xp
en
se
s3
3.3
36
.0
49
.8
35
.0
44
.4
24
.0
34
.9
30
.6
24
.6
34
.2
34
.5
Sa
vin
gs
13
.8
2.3
1.4
8.6
3.0
18
.0
24
.8
9.4
7.6
8.6
10
.8
Pu
rc
ha
se
of A
pp
lia
nc
es
-6
.5
-2
2.3
-1
2.0
-1
2.2
-1
5.0
-1
.0
0.6
-1
4.0
-4
.0
-5
.4
-1
1.0
Inve
stm
en
t3
.0
-7
.3
2.8
-7
.2
-1
5.8
3.0
19
.0
-1
1.0
5.0
13
.3
8.8
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
on
su
me
r d
ura
ble
s
4.5
-6
.5
9.8
2.2
-0
.2
16
.2
8.8
5.8
1.0
6.7
6.0
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
ar/M
oto
r V
eh
icle
-1
8.8
-2
7.5
-3
2.4
-2
8.6
-3
4.4
-1
5.6
-1
5.1
-3
0.2
-2
1.2
-1
5.5
-1
3.3
Pu
rc
ha
se
of H
ou
se
-1
9.8
-1
3.8
-2
6.4
-2
1.6
-3
3.4
-1
3.8
-1
3.7
-2
8.2
-1
6.4
-1
0.6
-8
.0
Oth
ers
-1
.5
-6
.8
-2
4.0
-3
0.2
-3
8.6
-1
4.8
-1
5.3
-2
2.6
-1
5.0
-5
.4
-1
0.5
6
. B
uy
in
g C
on
ditio
ns In
de
x: C
urre
nt Q
ua
rte
r
Bu
yin
g C
on
ditio
ns In
de
x
42
.6
38
.2
38
.4
43
.1
31
.9
43
.5
49
.0
39
.8
45
.1
42
.4
34
.9
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s5
4.3
48
.5
46
.8
46
.6
36
.4
46
.4
58
.6
50
.2
54
.0
46
.0
35
.5
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
35
.6
31
.9
34
.7
40
.8
30
.0
43
.7
46
.6
36
.0
40
.2
40
.1
34
.3
Ho
use
& L
ot
37
.9
34
.1
33
.7
41
.9
29
.2
40
.4
41
.8
33
.2
41
.1
41
.1
34
.8
7. B
uy
in
g In
te
ntio
n In
de
x: N
ext 1
2 M
on
th
s
Bu
yin
g In
te
ntio
ns In
de
x
49
.4
44
.7
42
.4
50
.0
40
.8
54
.2
57
.4
46
.9
51
.9
56
.8
51
.6
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s6
0.0
52
.5
49
.8
56
.4
52
.0
65
.6
70
.7
56
.4
61
.2
67
.3
62
.3
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
45
.3
40
.5
38
.8
44
.7
35
.0
49
.1
51
.9
42
.7
48
.9
52
.4
47
.0
Ho
use
& L
ot
42
.9
41
.1
38
.7
48
.9
35
.4
48
.0
49
.5
41
.7
45
.7
50
.8
45
.6
8. In
dice
s o
n S
ele
cte
d E
co
no
mic In
dica
to
rs: N
ext 1
2 M
on
th
s
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
In
de
x
40
.0
34
.5
33
.4
24
.6
23
.0
9.6
-6
.2
5.4
8.0
-3
.9
-4
.5
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
in
de
x2
8.0
20
.5
12
.0
24
.8
23
.6
-1
8.0
-2
9.2
-2
4.4
9.2
-2
1.5
-4
.0
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te
-1
1.5
-2
1.0
-1
4.0
-1
.6
-4
0.4
24
.8
27
.2
6.0
-6
.8
26
.3
-1
.7
In
fla
tio
n R
ate
in
de
x3
5.9
32
.9
32
.5
25
.1
26
.9
11
.4
-8
.0
-4
.3
10
.3
-1
4.8
1.1
9. S
ecto
rs C
on
trib
utio
n to
p
rice
ch
an
ge
s o
ve
r th
e n
ext 1
2 m
on
th
s
Fo
od
65
.0
48
.0
48
.4
42
.8
37
.2
29
.2
-7
.2
-2
0.4
29
.2
-2
3.9
-8
.7
Clo
thin
g &
Fo
otw
ae
r3
9.0
24
.5
30
.8
28
.4
26
.8
12
.0
-1
3.9
-1
2.8
6.8
-1
7.2
9.7
Ele
ctr
icity
48
.0
34
.0
40
.0
44
.0
30
.0
10
.8
-1
0.4
7.2
18
.4
-2
.0
4.3
Wa
ter
20
.0
19
.0
24
.8
12
.4
25
.2
0.8
-1
5.5
-1
3.6
-3
.2
-2
3.9
-9
.7
Ho
use
Re
nt
46
.5
49
.0
42
.4
24
.0
43
.2
18
.4
-2
.0
10
.8
18
.4
-1
6.2
10
.7
Tra
nsp
orta
tio
n4
0.0
58
.5
34
.4
23
.2
30
.0
6.0
-1
5.9
-1
8.0
6.0
-2
7.9
7.3
Co
mm
un
ica
tio
n2
0.0
24
.5
20
.8
8.4
22
.4
8.8
-1
0.0
-9
.6
-4
.4
-1
4.5
3.0
Ed
uc
atio
n4
7.5
40
.5
44
.4
37
.6
32
.0
15
.2
4.0
13
.2
14
.8
-5
.7
8.0
Me
dic
al C
are
43
.5
37
.0
49
.2
32
.4
37
.2
14
.8
-8
.4
9.2
13
.6
-7
.7
10
.0
pe
rso
na
l C
are
16
.5
19
.0
15
.6
17
.2
19
.2
24
.4
-1
0.8
4.0
2.0
-7
.1
-6
.0
Ho
tel &
Re
sta
ura
nt
29
.0
21
.5
26
.0
16
.8
22
.4
-6
.0
-1
.2
-1
0.8
13
.6
-1
9.2
-1
1.3
Oth
ers
15
.5
19
.0
13
.6
14
.0
-2
.4
2.4
-4
.4
-1
0.4
8.4
-1
2.1
-4
.3
1
0. P
erce
nta
ge
o
f R
esp
on
de
nts b
y E
du
ca
tio
na
l A
tta
in
me
nt
Prim
ary S
cho
ol
1.0
1.0
4.4
3.6
0.4
4.0
2.0
3.2
1.2
4.4
2.0
Junio
r S
cho
ol
0.5
1.5
3.2
1.6
4.8
2.4
1.2
1.6
1.2
4.4
2.7
Se
nio
r S
cho
ol
5.0
9.0
14
.0
16
.0
15
.2
20
.4
15
.5
19
.2
14
.8
14
.5
13
.3
Hig
he
r no
n-univ
ersity e
ducatio
n4
5.5
42
.0
38
.0
44
.8
42
.0
35
.6
39
.8
41
.2
44
.0
33
.3
35
.0
Univ
ersity
46
.0
46
.0
39
.2
32
.4
36
.8
35
.2
39
.4
33
.2
37
.6
41
.1
45
.0
No
ne
2.0
0.5
1.2
1.6
0.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
2.4
2.0
11
. T
ota
l S
am
ple
H
ou
se
ho
ld
s a
nd
R
esp
on
se
R
ate
Nu
mb
er o
f S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
ld
s2
00
20
02
50
25
02
50
25
02
50
25
02
50
30
03
00
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
de
nts
20
02
00
25
02
50
25
02
50
25
02
50
25
02
97
30
0
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
99
.0
10
0.0
20
16
TA
BLE
4 (
co
ntin
ue
d)
No
rth
-E
ast Z
on
e
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
IO
NS
SU
RV
EY
20
15
20
14
18
The North West zone consumers’ overall outlook
in Q3, 2016 was downbeat at –18.1 points. The
index dipped by 25.3 points when compared with
its level in Q3, 2015. The negative outlook of con-
sumers in the quarter under review, could be at-
tributed to the deteriorating economic condition in
the region, drawdown on their savings/getting into
debt and the decline in their total net household
income (Table 5, Section 1).
Consumer outlook for the next quarter and the next
12 months were positive at 31.9 and 40.6 points,
respectively. The positive outlook in the next quar-
ter and the next 12 months could be attributed to
the expectation of improved economic condition in
the region and anticipated increase in total net
household income, which could lead to increased
savings to meet their financial obligations.
On average, more households in the zone expect
an increase in their expenditure on basic commodi-
ties and services in the next 12 months. With an
average of 16.7 points, the index dipped by 7.4
points compared with 24.1 points obtained in Q3
2015 (Table 5, Section 5 and Fig. 9).
Consumer Expectations
Q3 2016, North West Zone
Consumer Outlook
The breakdown of the expected expenditure over
the next 12 months were: food & other household
needs, education, medical expenses, debt payments
and savings. Some consumers indicated that they
do not plan to spend substantial amount of their in-
come on purchase of car/motor vehicle and house.
The proportion of respondents that indicated inten-
tions to buy big tickets items in the next 12 months
dipped to 51.6 points in the current quarter from the
56.9 points achieved in Q3 2015. The buying inten-
tion index suggests that the next 12 months would
be an opportune time to purchase consumer dura-
bles and house & lot.
-40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0
Average Expenditure
Food & Other household needs
Education
Debt Payment
Medical Expenses
Savings
Purchase of Appliances
Investment
Purchase of Consumer durables
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle
Purchase of House
Others
Fig. 9a: North West Confidence Index on Amount of Expenditure in the next 12 months
Exp
en
dit
ure
Ite
ms
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
19
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.
Zo
na
l C
on
sum
er
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
xA
ll S
ect
ors
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
-4.1
-4.1
-1.7
-6.4
-10
.4-1
7.3
7.2
3.0
-9.9
-17
.0-1
8.1
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
33
.33
1.2
24
.72
2.9
22
.42
2.2
23
.51
6.4
28
.92
1.6
20
.4
Ne
xt
12
mo
nth
s3
5.1
28
.93
5.5
36
.24
0.9
51
.35
0.3
50
.24
5.9
40
.14
2.9
2
. C
on
sum
er
ou
tlo
ok
in
dic
es
on
th
e c
urr
en
t e
con
om
ic a
nd
fa
mil
y c
on
dit
ion
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n1
.13
.4-0
.1-6
.1-9
.3-2
0.9
22
.71
8.0
-8.6
-8.6
-23
.3
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-5.6
-2.7
-13
.8-1
6.2
-28
.5-2
2.2
10
.3-0
.9-2
2.4
-1.6
-27
.4
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-0.4
-0.4
6.5
-5.0
-4.6
-21
.01
9.7
15
.5-0
.7-1
5.6
-25
.2
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
9.1
5.0
-1.4
-2.6
-5.6
-25
.92
3.6
29
.1-1
2.0
-4.8
-7.6
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-1.8
18
.82
.50
.06
.3-8
.74
2.6
28
.61
.2-1
.1-2
8.0
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
-6.7
-16
.7-1
3.0
-15
.1-1
3.1
-19
.7-1
0.7
-20
.7-2
0.4
-26
.0-2
3.6
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-22
.6-3
4.5
-36
.2-3
4.4
-29
.7-2
6.1
-7.9
-29
.2-3
1.6
-29
.0-3
1.4
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-3.0
-13
.4-5
.8-1
0.4
-11
.7-2
2.9
-14
.2-1
3.1
-21
.2-2
4.5
-25
.2
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-7.1
-6.9
-12
.3-7
.1-4
.6-1
2.9
-13
.2-2
7.9
-15
.7-2
6.5
-13
.6
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
2.7
-15
.2-1
.7-1
1.8
-4.7
-10
.9-0
.9-1
7.1
-4.7
-26
.1-1
1.0
Fam
ily
In
com
e-6
.90
.98
.02
.0-8
.9-1
1.5
9.7
11
.7-0
.6-1
6.4
-7.4
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-9.7
-12
.23
.9-1
6.9
-29
.1-1
9.3
9.5
-1.9
-4.6
-4.8
-2.7
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-9.7
2.9
8.2
6.4
-8.5
-11
.5-4
.78
.71
.5-2
6.1
-3.6
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
7.1
6.4
13
.05
.14
.1-1
1.9
12
.31
7.4
6.0
-6.0
-8.5
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-21
.85
.56
.81
2.7
0.0
4.3
38
.92
8.6
-11
.6-1
7.4
-31
.7
3.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utl
oo
k i
nd
ice
s o
n e
con
om
ic a
nd
fa
mil
y c
on
dit
ion
: N
ext
Qu
art
er
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n2
1.4
15
.82
4.9
25
.31
2.4
39
.34
4.1
37
.03
1.4
33
.33
1.9
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-9.8
7.7
10
.32
6.6
2.1
29
.12
8.1
-1.4
8.2
3.4
28
.1
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
28
.11
0.9
24
.82
2.5
12
.03
2.9
31
.42
8.8
34
.02
8.2
29
.8
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
32
.22
4.4
29
.42
8.0
21
.54
6.5
58
.05
0.5
39
.84
0.0
41
.5
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
9.8
23
.93
3.3
26
.58
.75
2.6
56
.05
6.1
38
.85
9.0
27
.9
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
13
.21
3.0
17
.41
1.7
13
.42
8.3
25
.12
8.3
17
.34
.61
5.7
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
0.0
-1.6
4.8
3.2
-1.4
-1.5
12
.38
.34
.50
.02
2.9
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
17
.42
1.9
16
.89
.41
6.0
24
.61
5.9
27
.42
1.5
0.6
15
.5
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
18
.31
1.5
23
.32
3.2
19
.64
1.0
25
.73
4.3
18
.45
.97
.3
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
4.5
10
.42
3.3
10
.61
5.2
49
.15
0.7
32
.72
0.8
16
.41
6.3
Fam
ily
In
com
e6
5.4
64
.83
1.7
31
.74
1.4
-0.9
1.1
-16
.03
8.1
26
.91
3.7
Und
er
N20,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
61
.06
4.1
49
.21
5.6
65
.31
6.4
5.3
25
.03
5.8
58
.10
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
73
.46
7.6
27
.03
3.3
48
.46
.38
.8-2
3.9
38
.22
5.3
10
.1
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
52
.96
7.5
26
.73
6.6
15
.9-1
1.1
-0.9
-21
.63
9.8
22
.43
2.9
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
71
.25
6.7
31
.73
7.9
45
.5-1
9.3
-11
.9-1
6.3
37
.51
5.0
18
.6
20
14
20
16
Ta
ble
5
No
rth
-We
st Z
on
e
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y2
01
5
20
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3
4.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utlo
ok
in
dic
es o
n e
co
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n2
2.4
13
.1
22
.6
25
.4
30
.9
51
.7
54
.9
49
.7
50
.7
38
.6
40
.6
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
0.0
0.8
17
.8
16
.3
17
.3
30
.9
29
.6
-1
.8
36
.6
10
.0
37
.9
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
17
.1
5.2
19
.1
23
.8
26
.6
41
.3
47
.0
39
.7
41
.9
21
.8
28
.0
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
37
.8
15
.9
28
.0
36
.2
37
.6
60
.3
57
.1
58
.8
60
.8
46
.4
49
.5
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
15
.5
33
.6
25
.0
21
.5
38
.4
67
.7
76
.9
71
.8
61
.5
72
.4
56
.5
Fa
mil
y F
ina
ncia
l S
itu
atio
n1
9.4
13
.8
17
.1
19
.4
23
.2
40
.8
35
.8
39
.3
25
.4
18
.7
27
.2
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
15
.6
-6
.1
8.5
20
.9
6.1
18
.5
22
.4
-2
1.4
3.6
12
.8
29
.1
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
15
.7
14
.5
5.1
11
.3
17
.5
27
.2
21
.0
28
.9
22
.0
3.0
25
.9
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
22
.8
19
.8
30
.1
26
.4
25
.0
47
.3
34
.2
53
.1
31
.4
32
.0
24
.7
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
20
.7
23
.7
26
.3
25
.3
47
.4
64
.6
65
.0
58
.1
39
.2
32
.1
31
.5
Fa
mil
y I
nco
me
63
.3
59
.9
66
.9
63
.7
68
.6
61
.3
60
.3
61
.5
61
.6
62
.9
60
.9
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
69
.4
43
.8
61
.0
55
.8
41
.8
60
.0
50
.0
55
.4
67
.0
61
.3
46
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
58
.8
65
.3
62
.0
60
.3
71
.8
54
.8
55
.9
60
.3
54
.2
56
.0
64
.7
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
64
.6
61
.6
75
.3
67
.8
71
.8
66
.5
64
.2
62
.4
62
.7
72
.7
71
.5
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
64
.9
63
.2
68
.8
69
.6
77
.2
63
.3
66
.3
64
.5
67
.6
63
.5
58
.3
5.
Co
nfid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n A
mo
un
t o
f E
xp
en
dit
ure
s:
Ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Av
era
ge
24
.0
18
.8
24
.4
23
.3
28
.5
24
.0
24
.1
20
.4
24
.2
22
.1
16
.7
Fo
od
& O
the
r h
ou
se
ho
ld n
ee
ds
63
.3
59
.9
66
.9
63
.7
68
.6
61
.3
60
.3
61
.5
61
.6
62
.9
60
.9
Ed
uc
atio
n5
8.3
62
.5
65
.9
61
.0
64
.7
62
.7
59
.9
57
.2
62
.1
61
.4
60
.4
De
bt P
aym
en
t2
4.7
21
.6
22
.1
24
.1
31
.2
19
.1
8.0
12
.8
17
.1
23
.1
25
.2
Me
dic
al E
xp
en
se
s4
7.6
46
.0
36
.4
34
.1
44
.7
43
.4
40
.7
26
.3
32
.7
42
.5
42
.6
Sa
vin
gs
21
.1
11
.8
22
.4
31
.8
24
.1
23
.4
32
.1
26
.5
35
.3
18
.7
17
.9
Pu
rc
ha
se
of A
pp
lia
nc
es
8.7
7.5
5.9
1.1
16
.0
7.3
20
.7
9.5
9.9
10
.3
-3
.7
Inve
stm
en
t9
.6
8.0
17
.9
22
.4
15
.8
16
.0
16
.9
18
.7
25
.3
10
.2
6.3
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
on
su
me
r d
ura
ble
s
20
.1
2.7
13
.9
11
.0
19
.4
20
.4
19
.1
13
.7
18
.9
10
.9
5.9
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
ar/M
oto
r V
eh
icle
-2
.6
-1
1.1
0.7
-4
.2
2.0
2.0
2.6
-5
.3
-8
.6
-2
.4
-1
3.3
Pu
rc
ha
se
of H
ou
se
3.3
-3
.9
3.4
2.4
5.6
-0
.6
2.9
0.7
5.0
-6
.5
-1
2.4
Oth
ers
10
.3
2.0
12
.6
8.9
21
.9
8.9
1.7
2.7
7.3
11
.9
-5
.4
6.
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex:
Cu
rre
nt Q
ua
rte
r
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex
41
.0
43
.9
41
.6
42
.3
38
.5
38
.9
44
.7
43
.1
44
.6
37
.5
38
.3
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s4
6.6
50
.4
54
.0
51
.0
45
.6
44
.3
54
.9
55
.9
49
.7
41
.8
46
.3
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
39
.4
42
.4
36
.3
39
.9
36
.0
38
.1
40
.1
36
.9
43
.6
35
.1
36
.4
Ho
use
& L
ot
36
.9
39
.0
34
.4
36
.0
33
.9
34
.2
39
.1
36
.5
40
.6
35
.7
32
.1
7.
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
n I
nd
ex:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
ns I
nd
ex
49
.2
47
.5
49
.8
50
.0
49
.3
56
.3
56
.9
55
.7
55
.1
49
.6
51
.6
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s5
9.7
57
.0
58
.6
59
.7
61
.6
70
.2
67
.9
69
.7
62
.7
59
.3
63
.6
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
44
.9
43
.7
46
.1
46
.7
43
.1
48
.9
49
.6
50
.8
52
.6
45
.7
44
.2
Ho
use
& L
ot
43
.0
41
.7
44
.6
43
.6
43
.4
49
.8
53
.1
46
.6
49
.9
43
.8
46
.9
8.
Ind
ice
s o
n S
ele
cte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
In
de
x
26
.4
30
.7
31
.4
32
.9
11
.3
-1
0.7
-0
.1
-1
7.7
1.0
-8
.3
6.1
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
in
de
x1
2.0
22
.4
28
.1
25
.7
-4
.3
-3
1.1
-1
7.4
-2
3.0
-8
.9
-1
8.2
-2
.0
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te
-4
.0
-6
.3
-1
0.0
4.9
-1
5.1
30
.5
22
.6
25
.7
9.2
17
.3
6.0
In
fla
tio
n R
ate
in
de
x4
7.0
43
.3
34
.3
29
.8
17
.8
-1
6.1
-7
.0
-1
4.3
13
.4
1.2
12
.0
9.
Se
cto
rs C
on
trib
utio
n t
o p
ric
e c
ha
ng
es o
ve
r t
he
ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Fo
od
46
.6
58
.6
37
.1
28
.6
24
.4
-1
2.0
-1
2.9
-1
6.0
14
.3
4.3
3.1
Clo
thin
g &
Fo
otw
ae
r4
5.7
52
.3
30
.6
24
.0
18
.3
-1
2.0
-8
.0
-1
7.0
8.0
8.9
8.6
Ele
ctr
icity
61
.1
44
.0
45
.1
40
.9
26
.9
-1
4.3
-6
.0
-4
.0
35
.5
13
.8
18
.0
Wa
ter
35
.4
25
.6
26
.3
10
.9
5.2
-2
2.9
-2
0.0
-2
3.0
7.4
-5
.2
2.3
Ho
use
Re
nt
57
.1
53
.4
46
.9
42
.6
26
.1
-1
4.9
0.0
-5
.0
12
.6
10
.3
20
.0
Tra
nsp
orta
tio
n5
8.0
45
.1
30
.6
33
.4
6.6
-2
3.4
-8
.9
-2
3.3
10
.3
-5
.2
9.1
Co
mm
un
ica
tio
n3
9.1
31
.3
18
.9
11
.1
5.2
-1
9.1
-1
0.6
-1
7.3
6.3
-9
.8
5.4
Ed
uc
atio
n5
4.3
51
.1
46
.0
47
.1
29
.1
-7
.7
0.6
-9
.3
19
.8
0.0
22
.0
Me
dic
al C
are
58
.6
47
.7
42
.6
40
.6
27
.8
-1
5.1
-1
.4
-7
.0
23
.5
6.9
26
.0
pe
rso
na
l C
are
34
.6
38
.5
20
.9
20
.3
17
.4
-1
2.9
-8
.6
-1
1.3
12
.0
2.0
6.6
Ho
tel &
Re
sta
ura
nt
42
.9
36
.5
38
.3
32
.9
18
.6
-1
3.1
0.9
-2
0.0
8.9
-2
.9
13
.7
Oth
ers
31
.1
35
.9
28
.0
25
.1
7.7
-2
6.3
-8
.6
-1
8.3
2.0
-8
.9
9.4
10
. P
erce
nta
ge
of R
esp
on
de
nts b
y E
du
ca
tio
na
l A
tta
inm
en
t
Prim
ary S
cho
ol
2.9
6.6
4.9
3.1
2.3
1.1
2.9
2.7
2.9
4.0
4.6
Junio
r S
cho
ol
4.0
2.3
1.7
3.1
4.0
3.7
3.1
4.3
3.7
4.9
2.0
Se
nio
r S
cho
ol
11
.7
13
.5
14
.9
9.7
22
.0
17
.1
17
.1
15
.0
18
.6
15
.8
18
.3
Hig
he
r no
n-univ
ersity e
ducatio
n3
0.0
38
.5
38
.9
40
.6
35
.1
41
.7
35
.4
33
.7
40
.3
39
.7
36
.0
Univ
ersity
39
.1
33
.0
33
.1
37
.1
30
.0
35
.1
36
.9
43
.3
31
.7
32
.5
35
.4
No
ne
12
.3
6.0
6.6
6.3
6.6
1.1
4.6
1.0
2.9
3.2
3.7
11
. T
ota
l S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
lds a
nd
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
Nu
mb
er o
f S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
ld
s3
50
35
03
50
35
03
50
35
03
50
35
03
50
35
03
50
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
de
nts
35
03
48
35
03
50
35
03
50
35
03
00
35
03
48
35
0
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
10
0.0
99
.4
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
85
.7
10
0.0
99
.4
10
0.0
20
15
20
14
20
16
Ta
ble
5 (
co
ntin
ue
d)
No
rth
-W
est Z
on
e
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
IO
NS
SU
RV
EY
21
The South East zone consumer's overall outlook
was downbeat in Q3 2016. At –38.4 points the in-
dex dipped by 25.2 points below its level in Q3
2015. The negative outlook of consumers in the
quarter under review, could be attributed to the de-
teriorating economic condition in the region, draw-
down on their savings/getting into debt and the de-
cline in their total net household income (Table 6,
Section 1).
However, consumer outlook for the next 12 months
remained positive at 4.7 point, though the next
quarter dipped by 20.5 points at –7.5 points com-
pared to 28.0 points in Q3, 2015. The positive out-
look of consumers in the next 12 months could be
attributed to the expectation of improved economic
condition in the region, anticipated increase in the
total net household income, which could lead to
increased savings and their ability to meet other
financial obligations.
On average, more households in the zone expected
a decline in their expenditure on basic commodities
and services in the next 12 months. At 0.3 points,
the index dipped by 28.5 points, compared with
28.8 points obtained in Q3 2015 (Table 6, Section
5 and Fig. 10).
Consumer Expectations
Q3 2016, South East Zone
Consumer Outlook
The breakdown of the expected expenditure
over the next 12 months were: food & other
household needs, education, medical expenses
and purchase of consumer durables. They do
not expect to spend on purchase of house, pur-
chase of car/motor vehicle, appliances and in-
vestment.
The proportion of respondents that indicated
intention to buy big ticket items in the next 12
months dipped to 36.5 points compared with
the 50.5 points obtained in Q3 2015. The buy-
ing intention index suggests that the next 12
months would not be an opportune time to pur-
chase consumer durables.
-48.0 -28.0 -8.0 12.0 32.0 52.0 72.0
Average Expenditure
Food & Other household needs
Education
Debt Payment
Medical Expenses
Savings
Purchase of Appliances
Investment
Purchase of Consumer durables
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle
Purchase of House
Others
Fig. 10a: South East Confidence Index on Amount of Expenditure in the next 12 months
Ex
pe
nd
itu
re I
tem
s
Q3 2016 Q2 2016
22
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.
Zo
na
l C
on
sum
er
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
xA
ll S
ect
ors
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
4.2
-3.3
-1.9
2.1
7.9
-1.7
-13
.2-1
1.7
-14
.2-4
0.9
-38
.4
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
41
.52
8.3
23
.93
0.9
44
.73
1.9
27
.61
9.7
29
.11
0.7
17
.1
Ne
xt
12
mo
nth
s4
2.4
30
.12
6.9
29
.93
6.6
31
.83
0.6
32
.13
4.4
12
.52
0.4
2.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utl
oo
k i
nd
ice
s o
n t
he
cu
rre
nt
eco
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n2
.2-4
.5-6
.67
.06
.9-2
.6-1
4.8
-14
.4-1
3.1
-42
.8-4
8.4
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-4.8
-41
.3-6
.11
8.8
15
.0-6
.8-2
7.3
-54
.3-6
0.5
-53
.2-5
1.4
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-5.4
13
.3-6
.10
.0-8
.5-1
.81
3.6
-9.4
-32
.6-5
4.5
-56
.5
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
25
.02
0.2
-2.8
14
.82
2.5
-3.7
8.3
-3.5
-7.5
-33
.3-4
1.9
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
11
.82
0.8
-15
.64
.83
1.7
0.0
40
.6-1
3.0
40
.2-2
7.6
-35
.0
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
2.4
-10
.4-8
.6-9
.2-1
0.3
-8.0
-24
.0-2
4.2
-32
.5-4
8.8
-49
.0
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
0.0
-18
.6-3
0.3
-18
.8-2
7.5
-11
.4-1
8.2
-20
.0-6
4.5
-43
.6-5
5.6
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-2.1
-8.7
-8.0
-11
.8-1
9.4
-9.1
-1.1
-29
.1-2
9.9
-61
.5-5
2.5
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
7.1
4.8
5.6
3.7
2.9
-6.8
-4.8
-19
.7-3
1.6
-47
.1-4
6.3
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
16
.2-2
0.8
-12
.5-9
.51
0.0
-5.4
-3.1
-20
.4-1
3.7
-32
.9-3
6.7
Fam
ily
In
com
e8
.14
.99
.68
.42
7.0
5.6
-0.8
3.6
2.8
-31
.2-1
7.9
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
0.0
-7.0
12
.11
0.0
20
.00
.0-2
7.3
0.0
-42
.1-6
6.0
-30
.6
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
0.0
8.7
2.3
5.3
13
.22
.70
.09
.4-6
.9-3
3.3
-20
.0
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
14
.32
3.8
24
.12
0.4
49
.30
.04
5.2
-7.0
3.4
-17
.2-8
.8
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
41
.2-1
6.7
12
.50
.04
0.0
29
.75
6.3
11
.14
9.0
-15
.8-2
0.0
3.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utl
oo
k i
nd
ice
s o
n e
con
om
ic a
nd
fa
mil
y c
on
dit
ion
: N
ext
Qu
art
er
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n3
6.3
32
.02
0.8
27
.83
8.5
33
.22
8.0
19
.22
1.2
-9.0
-7.5
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
79
.1-2
0.7
-12
.52
7.1
81
.34
5.8
8.3
-29
.5-1
8.4
-8.3
-5.8
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
19
.04
3.5
15
.51
7.0
20
.82
3.4
35
.12
3.5
-2.3
-11
.8-1
7.6
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
54
.94
7.5
44
.63
2.9
53
.43
7.2
58
.33
0.5
34
.3-1
5.9
-2.3
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
16
.32
5.0
15
.24
4.3
62
.24
2.0
72
.78
.15
3.5
9.3
9.4
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
14
.51
.61
.21
0.4
25
.09
.21
0.4
-9.2
19
.0-1
2.4
-0.4
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
7.0
-19
.52
5.0
-29
.23
7.5
0.0
-33
.3-2
2.7
-31
.6-4
7.2
-12
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
5.6
2.1
-24
.41
5.5
5.4
-10
.4-2
9.7
-4.3
-7.8
-18
.01
.0
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
25
.53
0.0
27
.71
5.2
49
.31
3.3
52
.1-1
1.0
34
.8-4
.91
.2
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
30
.4-1
6.7
19
.61
1.4
43
.24
5.5
54
.5-1
2.9
57
.91
4.0
0.0
Fam
ily
In
com
e7
3.8
51
.24
9.6
54
.47
0.6
53
.24
4.4
49
.24
7.2
53
.65
9.3
Und
er
N20,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
72
.17
3.2
55
.05
0.0
62
.55
8.3
83
.37
7.3
57
.94
1.7
61
.5
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
83
.34
7.6
46
.25
5.3
72
.36
4.6
48
.65
6.5
42
.25
8.4
67
.6
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
54
.93
0.0
50
.85
3.2
79
.54
4.9
33
.34
8.8
56
.26
9.5
57
.0
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
73
.97
7.8
54
.35
6.8
48
.64
5.5
4.5
3.2
31
.62
3.3
37
.5
20
15
TA
BLE
6
20
16
So
uth
-E
ast
Zo
ne
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y 20
14
23
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3
4.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utlo
ok
in
dic
es o
n e
co
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n3
7.3
25
.2
13
.4
24
.4
24
.4
26
.6
16
.8
30
.6
27
.6
-4
.6
4.7
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
45
.0
-3
9.3
12
.5
26
.5
10
.0
16
.7
0.0
-3
4.4
-2
3.7
-6
.2
-3
4.6
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
34
.5
31
.4
9.0
18
.9
8.3
12
.7
1.9
11
.4
5.5
-1
6.5
2.7
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
46
.4
36
.0
21
.4
22
.5
38
.8
24
.5
25
.0
51
.5
37
.4
-2
.2
-7
.9
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
30
.0
42
.0
10
.7
34
.1
36
.7
46
.8
50
.0
44
.2
48
.0
11
.5
38
.7
Fa
mil
y F
ina
ncia
l S
itu
atio
n2
3.4
2.9
7.2
13
.6
21
.4
17
.6
19
.6
0.8
29
.6
-8
.0
-2
.0
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
10
.0
-2
1.4
10
.0
5.9
0.0
33
.3
0.0
-2
5.0
11
.1
-2
0.8
-3
8.5
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
13
.6
0.0
-8
.1
6.7
2.8
-2
.8
-1
1.1
-1
1.4
-3
.1
-3
1.8
-7
.7
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
43
.6
14
.3
21
.1
20
.0
40
.0
12
.7
40
.4
7.8
29
.7
2.2
1.1
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
28
.3
28
.0
21
.4
17
.5
32
.7
47
.6
62
.5
18
.6
62
.2
19
.2
11
.3
Fa
mil
y I
nco
me
66
.5
62
.2
60
.2
51
.8
64
.1
51
.2
55
.3
65
.0
46
.2
50
.2
58
.6
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
58
.3
48
.2
55
.0
32
.4
30
.0
0.0
75
.0
40
.6
7.9
31
.3
50
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
71
.4
63
.7
64
.4
53
.3
67
.4
54
.2
55
.6
67
.6
50
.8
46
.5
50
.6
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
63
.6
61
.6
61
.0
56
.3
65
.9
50
.0
57
.7
66
.5
47
.8
65
.7
70
.2
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
65
.0
70
.0
50
.0
49
.2
57
.1
54
.8
50
.0
65
.1
50
.0
38
.5
54
.7
5.
Co
nfid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n A
mo
un
t o
f E
xp
en
dit
ure
s:
Ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Av
era
ge
14
.2
-9
.9
10
.7
6.2
22
.8
13
.4
28
.8
12
.2
10
.5
-2
.6
0.3
Fo
od
& O
the
r h
ou
se
ho
ld n
ee
ds
66
.5
62
.2
60
.2
51
.8
64
.1
51
.2
55
.3
65
.0
46
.2
50
.2
58
.6
Ed
uc
atio
n5
8.1
57
.3
62
.4
53
.4
65
.5
66
.4
69
.9
65
.4
53
.2
42
.6
43
.1
De
bt P
aym
en
t9
.1
-1
8.5
-4
.2
2.6
21
.5
-1
2.6
14
.6
13
.8
13
.7
-7
.8
-2
.9
Me
dic
al E
xp
en
se
s4
.6
15
.2
32
.0
21
.8
40
.7
9.0
24
.3
28
.0
16
.3
11
.8
7.8
Sa
vin
gs
31
.5
-1
9.3
5.0
5.2
20
.6
-5
.0
34
.1
12
.4
11
.9
-7
.8
-2
.5
Pu
rc
ha
se
of A
pp
lia
nc
es
3.6
-2
7.0
13
.4
-1
1.0
14
.3
9.0
31
.9
-3
.2
4.4
-1
7.2
-1
5.5
Inve
stm
en
t4
.2
-3
8.2
-6
.6
-4
.6
7.3
3.2
14
.2
-6
.4
3.4
-1
8.2
-1
4.1
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
on
su
me
r d
ura
ble
s
4.8
-7
.1
15
.4
0.6
26
.6
18
.4
28
.8
5.0
-1
.8
-5
.8
0.2
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
ar/M
oto
r V
eh
icle
-2
0.0
-5
9.8
-2
4.6
-1
8.2
-2
.2
0.0
13
.3
-2
2.8
-2
.4
-2
7.8
-2
5.4
Pu
rc
ha
se
of H
ou
se
-1
8.1
-4
9.2
-3
6.2
-2
3.0
-1
1.3
-5
.4
4.0
-1
9.2
-1
7.1
-2
9.8
-3
2.9
Oth
ers
12
.3
-2
5.0
0.6
-1
0.4
3.6
13
.0
26
.1
-3
.6
-1
2.1
-1
9.0
-1
2.5
6.
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex:
Cu
rre
nt Q
ua
rte
r
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex
43
.9
31
.9
39
.7
42
.7
41
.7
40
.2
40
.1
35
.5
39
.4
27
.8
29
.6
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s5
4.0
52
.4
54
.8
54
.2
63
.5
52
.8
49
.6
51
.8
51
.4
34
.4
41
.1
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
42
.6
27
.9
31
.8
37
.4
30
.0
35
.5
35
.9
34
.4
35
.7
26
.9
25
.6
Ho
use
& L
ot
35
.1
15
.5
32
.4
36
.6
31
.7
32
.4
34
.8
20
.4
31
.0
22
.1
22
.1
7.
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
n I
nd
ex:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
ns I
nd
ex
47
.9
35
.6
43
.1
46
.6
45
.6
43
.5
50
.5
41
.5
48
.8
35
.7
36
.5
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s6
1.7
51
.4
53
.6
56
.8
60
.7
58
.8
59
.8
50
.4
64
.7
46
.0
49
.0
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
44
.6
31
.8
42
.6
42
.1
38
.7
40
.0
47
.6
42
.4
39
.0
31
.8
32
.7
Ho
use
& L
ot
37
.5
23
.6
33
.0
41
.0
37
.3
31
.8
44
.1
31
.8
42
.7
29
.2
27
.8
8.
Ind
ice
s o
n S
ele
cte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
In
de
x
19
.2
51
.2
40
.8
28
.2
51
.0
32
.2
26
.5
38
.2
8.5
38
.8
35
.6
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
in
de
x2
9.4
-6
.5
-1
2.0
1.6
-8
.9
-2
8.8
-1
0.6
-1
0.4
10
.5
8.0
7.3
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te
-1
5.7
0.4
-1
7.6
-5
.2
-9
.7
-1
6.8
-2
3.0
-3
.2
-4
.8
-2
6.4
-2
7.3
In
fla
tio
n R
ate
in
de
x4
9.5
34
.6
33
.0
42
.0
43
.5
35
.4
36
.6
40
.4
53
.6
52
.5
50
.6
9.
Se
cto
rs C
on
trib
utio
n t
o p
ric
e c
ha
ng
es o
ve
r t
he
ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Fo
od
74
.6
55
.9
48
.4
51
.2
70
.2
56
.4
51
.2
49
.6
62
.1
59
.2
57
.3
Clo
thin
g &
Fo
otw
ae
r6
9.4
27
.3
33
.2
46
.0
52
.4
40
.0
48
.4
50
.8
62
.5
42
.4
51
.2
Ele
ctr
icity
51
.2
32
.2
40
.0
48
.8
54
.4
18
.8
37
.6
41
.2
70
.2
66
.8
47
.6
Wa
ter
2.0
7.0
13
.6
28
.8
29
.0
12
.4
12
.4
21
.2
35
.5
42
.0
35
.4
Ho
use
Re
nt
67
.3
74
.7
72
.0
70
.0
71
.4
60
.0
66
.8
62
.0
62
.1
80
.0
70
.7
Tra
nsp
orta
tio
n5
6.0
64
.9
54
.4
58
.0
33
.9
38
.8
41
.2
20
.0
56
.0
66
.0
56
.9
Co
mm
un
ica
tio
n2
7.8
29
.8
21
.6
32
.4
15
.7
26
.0
21
.2
1.2
47
.2
38
.8
47
.2
Ed
uc
atio
n6
6.9
49
.8
38
.4
50
.0
51
.6
40
.4
52
.8
59
.6
68
.1
63
.6
61
.0
Me
dic
al C
are
56
.5
17
.1
42
.4
40
.8
58
.1
37
.6
46
.4
52
.8
55
.2
60
.0
57
.7
pe
rso
na
l C
are
34
.7
16
.7
7.6
20
.0
24
.2
31
.6
20
.4
38
.4
42
.7
38
.4
37
.4
Ho
tel &
Re
sta
ura
nt
50
.0
14
.7
17
.6
35
.2
39
.9
35
.6
27
.6
48
.4
41
.9
42
.4
47
.2
Oth
ers
37
.5
25
.3
6.8
22
.8
21
.0
26
.8
12
.8
39
.6
39
.1
30
.0
37
.4
10
. P
erce
nta
ge
of R
esp
on
de
nts b
y E
du
ca
tio
na
l A
tta
inm
en
t
Prim
ary S
cho
ol
5.6
4.5
6.4
6.0
4.8
0.4
0.0
3.6
0.4
4.8
4.9
Junio
r S
cho
ol
5.2
2.4
2.0
4.8
1.2
1.6
2.7
1.6
4.0
2.4
3.7
Se
nio
r S
cho
ol
18
.5
36
.2
28
.0
20
.4
23
.0
23
.2
24
.8
24
.0
24
.2
24
.8
23
.2
Hig
he
r no
n-univ
ersity e
ducatio
n2
0.6
27
.2
26
.8
28
.0
34
.7
34
.0
37
.2
28
.8
22
.2
24
.8
26
.4
Univ
ersity
45
.2
28
.9
35
.6
39
.6
35
.9
40
.0
34
.5
41
.2
49
.2
42
.4
40
.7
No
ne
4.8
0.8
1.2
1.2
0.4
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.0
0.8
1.2
11
. T
ota
l S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
lds a
nd
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
Nu
mb
er o
f S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
ld
s2
50
25
02
50
25
02
50
25
02
50
25
02
50
25
02
50
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
de
nts
24
82
46
25
02
50
25
02
50
25
02
50
24
82
50
24
6
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
99
.2
98
.4
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
99
.2
10
0.0
98
.4
So
uth
-E
ast Z
on
e
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
IO
NS
SU
RV
EY 2
01
42
01
5
TA
BLE
6 (
co
ntin
ue
d)
20
16
24
Consumers’ overall outlook in the South South
zone in Q3 2016 was downbeat at –29.1 points.
The index fell by 21.0 points below its levels in
Q3 2015. The negative outlook of consumers in
the quarter under review could be attributed to the
deteriorating economic condition in the region,
drawdown on their savings/getting into debt and
the decline in their total net household income .
(Table 7, Section 1).
However, consumer outlook for the next quarter
and the next 12 months were optimistic at 1.5 and
8.2 points, respectively. The positive outlook of
consumers in the next quarter and the next 12
months could be attributed to the expectation of
improved economic condition in the region and
anticipated increase in the total net household in-
come.
On average, more households in the zone expect
an increase in their expenditure on basic commod-
ities and services in the next 12 months. At 10.3
points, the index dipped by 3.5 points compared
with 13.8 points achieved in the corresponding
quarter a year ago (Table 7, Section 5 and Fig.
11).
Consumer Expectations
Q3 2016, South-South Zone
Consumer Outlook
The breakdown of the expected expenditure
over the next 12 months were: food & other
household needs, education, savings, investment
and purchase of consumer durables. Some of
the consumers indicated that they do not plan to
spend substantial amount of their income on
purchase of house, purchase of car/motor vehi-
cle, appliances, debt payment and medical ex-
penses .
The proportion of respondents that indicated
intention to buy big ticket items in the next 12
months fell to 41.6 points compared with 44.2
points obtained in Q3 2015. The buying inten-
tion index suggests that the next 12 months
would not be an opportune time to purchase
motor vehicle and house & lot.
-40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0
Average Expenditure
Food & Other household needs
Education
Debt Payment
Medical Expenses
Savings
Purchase of Appliances
Investment
Purchase of Consumer durables
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle
Purchase of House
Others
Fig. 11a: South South Confidence Index on Amount of Expenditure in the next 12 months
Ex
pe
nd
itu
re I
tem
s
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
25
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.
Zo
na
l C
on
sum
er
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
xA
ll S
ect
ors
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
0.5
-0.2
0.8
-2.6
-6.1
-11
.9-8
.1-8
.7-1
0.0
-26
.1-2
9.1
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
32
.63
0.6
31
.23
5.0
31
.42
3.7
26
.63
0.8
31
.91
2.1
13
.9
Ne
xt
12
mo
nth
s3
3.8
37
.03
6.7
37
.53
9.0
38
.73
3.5
38
.33
8.9
19
.22
5.3
2
. C
on
sum
er
ou
tlo
ok
in
dic
es
on
th
e c
urr
en
t e
con
om
ic a
nd
fa
mil
y c
on
dit
ion
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n4
.03
.02
.2-3
.2-6
.3-6
.2-5
.5-1
0.5
-13
.9-3
4.1
-39
.8
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
0.6
-2.3
-20
.6-1
5.3
-25
.6-1
2.8
-40
.4-2
0.5
-23
.8-2
5.4
-43
.2
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
3.4
-2.0
2.0
3.0
-2.8
-13
.20
.0-8
.9-1
2.0
-31
.7-4
2.4
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
1.8
4.6
0.0
-6.7
-3.3
-0.5
0.0
-10
.6-1
1.2
-33
.6-3
9.8
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
17
.12
1.7
32
.23
.2-2
.0-0
.9-1
1.5
-5.7
-17
.6-5
0.0
-31
.3
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
-5.8
-9.3
-7.5
-8.8
-11
.4-2
3.5
-12
.8-4
.0-2
2.9
-15
.6-1
9.7
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-20
.2-1
8.4
-24
.5-1
0.5
-14
.4-6
0.3
-9.6
-2.3
-28
.6-1
5.6
-10
.2
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-0.4
-19
.1-8
.7-9
.5-1
6.9
-25
.3-2
6.1
-7.3
-16
.9-2
0.4
-23
.7
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
2.7
0.8
-4.8
1.3
-3.3
-10
.5-1
.81
.9-3
1.0
-3.1
-19
.9
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-1.3
15
.21
1.1
-21
.3-7
.0-2
0.5
-2.6
-6.6
-14
.9-1
9.4
-19
.8
Fam
ily
In
com
e3
.35
.77
.84
.3-0
.7-6
.0-6
.1-1
1.7
6.7
-28
.8-2
7.8
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
2.2
-8.0
-7.8
-17
.7-3
1.1
-35
.9-3
8.5
-54
.59
.5-2
1.3
-63
.6
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
4.2
23
.51
1.9
14
.75
.6-3
0.5
5.6
-2.4
-1.2
-20
.8-2
9.3
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
12
.71
3.8
11
.01
2.0
3.9
14
.5-1
4.3
-3.8
15
.7-3
5.9
-13
.0
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-10
.5-1
9.6
8.9
-4.3
4.0
16
.1-1
0.3
-9.4
0.0
-46
.3-2
5.0
3.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utl
oo
k i
nd
ice
s o
n e
con
om
ic a
nd
fa
mil
y c
on
dit
ion
: N
ext
Qu
art
er
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n3
9.0
29
.03
9.0
32
.32
7.5
27
.02
2.9
39
.02
5.1
-4.7
1.5
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
36
.42
8.7
39
.42
9.7
21
.25
.67
.94
2.6
25
.01
4.3
6.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
49
.62
9.1
39
.73
8.8
32
.61
8.1
29
.34
5.6
5.7
-5.6
-21
.6
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
26
.23
1.4
40
.03
2.0
27
.23
7.4
0.0
37
.32
9.9
-8.6
-9.0
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
34
.02
6.5
35
.32
2.8
21
.03
0.3
20
.82
6.9
34
.2-1
1.4
34
.4
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
13
.31
2.3
7.8
13
.77
.5-3
.74
.10
.71
.7-1
0.7
-11
.7
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
9.1
10
.6-3
.81
6.2
0.0
-50
.0-2
1.1
-7.4
-6.3
-7.1
-12
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
12
.61
0.4
13
.41
2.5
8.7
-20
.01
3.0
4.0
-1.4
-3.2
-22
.5
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
21
.51
5.7
2.5
13
.34
.31
1.4
-5.4
-6.0
6.7
-17
.1-9
.0
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
10
.01
3.2
15
.71
4.7
12
.91
4.8
2.8
6.2
-2.5
-21
.1-1
.0
Fam
ily
In
com
e4
5.3
50
.34
6.8
59
.05
9.3
47
.75
2.9
52
.76
8.9
51
.75
1.8
Und
er
N20,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
54
.56
6.0
38
.55
4.1
38
.53
0.6
42
.14
8.1
56
.34
5.2
52
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
21
.83
1.3
31
.35
5.8
49
.63
5.0
42
.43
7.6
75
.73
8.2
42
.3
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
61
.56
5.7
61
.37
4.7
70
.75
1.2
94
.66
7.5
70
.16
4.5
41
.8
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
68
.05
5.9
66
.75
0.0
69
.46
7.2
55
.66
4.6
63
.36
8.4
69
.8
20
14
20
16
TA
BLE
7
So
uth
-So
uth
Zo
ne
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y2
01
5
26
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3
4.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utlo
ok
in
dic
es o
n e
co
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n3
4.2
27
.8
41
.4
40
.2
38
.8
37
.8
29
.5
44
.3
35
.1
3.2
8.2
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
14
.2
11
.5
30
.0
23
.4
8.8
19
.0
-2
.9
3.3
10
.0
13
.2
8.3
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
44
.0
26
.6
40
.3
32
.8
38
.5
34
.6
32
.0
41
.5
28
.9
-4
.2
-1
4.1
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
27
.0
41
.1
38
.9
52
.5
38
.2
37
.6
40
.7
49
.6
28
.1
-2
.2
-6
.8
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
42
.6
20
.5
53
.2
40
.0
47
.8
46
.7
39
.5
48
.1
47
.8
17
.2
45
.2
Fa
mil
y F
ina
ncia
l S
itu
atio
n1
2.3
31
.3
11
.9
18
.7
14
.2
9.7
4.8
13
.7
17
.1
-6
.0
-1
.0
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
3.8
23
.1
-1
1.4
6.3
-1
1.8
-3
4.5
-3
5.3
-2
6.7
30
.0
-5
.9
-2
7.8
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
0.0
33
.7
11
.1
8.6
3.0
-1
5.4
-4
.0
1.1
21
.1
-1
3.0
-7
.6
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
28
.9
35
.4
15
.6
29
.0
24
.5
32
.7
11
.1
24
.1
15
.2
2.2
7.4
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
24
.1
27
.4
21
.0
22
.7
20
.6
19
.6
10
.5
21
.5
15
.0
-6
.0
2.1
Fa
mil
y I
nco
me
55
.0
51
.8
56
.9
53
.7
63
.9
68
.7
66
.1
56
.8
64
.4
60
.4
68
.7
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
25
.5
10
.3
11
.4
29
.7
23
.5
65
.5
20
.6
23
.3
50
.0
35
.3
8.3
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
68
.4
68
.5
66
.2
70
.4
72
.0
77
.6
83
.3
60
.1
65
.5
73
.6
73
.9
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
57
.2
47
.9
65
.6
51
.5
59
.5
71
.3
55
.6
50
.0
72
.4
53
.3
63
.2
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
51
.9
58
.2
54
.0
46
.0
69
.1
59
.2
67
.6
69
.0
57
.5
61
.2
80
.9
5.
Co
nfid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n A
mo
un
t o
f E
xp
en
dit
ure
s:
Ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Av
era
ge
16
.2
15
.1
12
.2
16
.5
12
.6
0.7
13
.8
12
.9
2.2
7.5
10
.3
Fo
od
& O
the
r h
ou
se
ho
ld n
ee
ds
55
.0
51
.8
56
.9
53
.7
63
.9
68
.7
66
.1
56
.8
64
.4
60
.4
68
.7
Ed
uc
atio
n5
5.3
54
.7
51
.0
52
.0
55
.6
60
.8
63
.9
56
.3
60
.5
57
.0
52
.8
De
bt P
aym
en
t-3
.5
1.3
-8
.1
-3
.3
-3
.4
-1
4.0
-7
.1
-2
.2
-1
2.9
-8
.2
-5
.7
Me
dic
al E
xp
en
se
s8
.0
7.5
2.9
-6
.3
-1
.5
12
.0
2.5
1.2
-8
.4
2.7
-3
.5
Sa
vin
gs
25
.7
25
.7
27
.6
36
.0
25
.4
14
.8
16
.7
24
.3
17
.4
5.7
21
.4
Pu
rc
ha
se
of A
pp
lia
nc
es
12
.0
10
.5
4.6
13
.3
11
.4
-1
7.5
5.5
7.3
-3
.5
-1
.3
-1
5.6
Inve
stm
en
t1
4.7
19
.0
14
.9
31
.7
17
.3
-2
.3
15
.0
14
.3
0.7
6.4
18
.2
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
on
su
me
r d
ura
ble
s
8.5
13
.5
14
.2
15
.8
7.8
-1
2.5
6.3
7.3
-2
.3
1.2
10
.4
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
ar/M
oto
r V
eh
icle
-4
.5
-8
.8
-6
.9
-1
.5
-1
0.2
-4
2.2
-7
.1
-6
.2
-3
2.4
-1
7.9
-2
1.4
Pu
rc
ha
se
of H
ou
se
-4
.3
-1
2.7
-1
4.7
-1
1.3
-2
1.7
-4
0.3
-2
3.0
-1
9.7
-3
7.6
-2
2.2
-3
0.8
Oth
ers
11
.5
3.8
-7
.6
1.7
-5
.6
-2
0.3
13
.1
2.0
-2
1.7
-1
.0
18
.7
6.
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex:
Cu
rre
nt Q
ua
rte
r
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex
46
.2
42
.8
46
.1
43
.3
41
.6
33
.1
38
.2
38
.6
37
.5
34
.1
32
.7
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s5
1.7
52
.8
53
.9
52
.2
49
.7
47
.0
46
.9
44
.2
53
.3
35
.6
36
.1
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
41
.7
37
.3
39
.4
39
.8
36
.9
25
.3
34
.5
35
.4
28
.9
33
.4
29
.5
Ho
use
& L
ot
45
.2
38
.3
45
.0
37
.8
38
.4
26
.9
33
.2
36
.3
30
.2
33
.1
32
.5
7.
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
n I
nd
ex:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
ns I
nd
ex
53
.9
52
.9
52
.9
50
.3
50
.7
40
.5
44
.2
48
.9
42
.2
41
.7
41
.6
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s5
6.2
65
.7
55
.9
59
.3
57
.1
54
.8
52
.4
56
.8
58
.5
47
.0
49
.5
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
49
.0
46
.3
49
.8
45
.8
47
.3
31
.7
40
.4
46
.1
34
.0
38
.5
36
.8
Ho
use
& L
ot
56
.4
46
.7
52
.8
45
.8
47
.6
35
.1
39
.8
43
.9
33
.9
39
.5
38
.6
8.
Ind
ice
s o
n S
ele
cte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
In
de
x
39
.5
18
.7
24
.7
22
.3
22
.5
35
.8
34
.7
17
.8
19
.4
28
.4
41
.5
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
in
de
x4
3.3
26
.3
32
.2
16
.3
24
.1
1.3
41
.0
22
.7
6.7
29
.8
17
.4
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te
5
.3
11
5.3
-1
.0
-7
.1
-1
1.7
2.2
-3
.7
-1
2.4
-7
.0
8.0
In
fla
tio
n R
ate
in
de
x3
2.3
29
.5
28
.7
40
.5
32
.1
32
.6
30
.8
28
.0
38
.6
33
.1
20
.1
9.
Se
cto
rs C
on
trib
utio
n t
o p
ric
e c
ha
ng
es o
ve
r t
he
ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Fo
od
58
.0
41
.3
50
.8
55
.3
49
.2
32
.0
50
.2
46
.7
55
.2
52
.7
50
.2
Clo
thin
g &
Fo
otw
ae
r4
7.0
41
.0
40
.3
53
.0
49
.5
36
.7
43
.3
38
.7
55
.2
36
.8
16
.4
Ele
ctr
icity
35
.0
25
.7
28
.8
38
.3
36
.6
36
.0
34
.1
32
.3
39
.1
36
.8
13
.4
Wa
ter
10
.7
12
.7
1.0
17
.7
6.1
18
.0
10
.6
5.3
28
.1
18
.7
5.7
Ho
use
Re
nt
64
.0
55
.0
59
.7
71
.7
67
.5
66
.3
59
.0
62
.0
68
.9
62
.1
64
.9
Tra
nsp
orta
tio
n1
8.3
33
.0
31
.5
44
.0
24
.4
23
.3
33
.1
23
.0
32
.4
31
.8
42
.5
Co
mm
un
ica
tio
n1
0.0
11
.0
4.4
14
.3
8.8
-2
.3
13
.0
6.7
15
.7
12
.8
5.7
Ed
uc
atio
n3
9.7
36
.3
42
.0
43
.3
42
.0
38
.0
40
.3
35
.3
41
.1
46
.2
45
.2
Me
dic
al C
are
28
.7
36
.0
25
.8
44
.7
30
.2
33
.0
28
.0
28
.0
31
.1
36
.9
5.4
pe
rso
na
l C
are
27
.0
13
.3
23
.1
36
.7
22
.4
31
.7
20
.1
14
.7
30
.4
12
.4
6.0
Ho
tel &
Re
sta
ura
nt
32
.7
34
.7
18
.0
45
.7
33
.9
61
.7
27
.6
27
.3
47
.8
29
.5
-1
.3
Oth
ers
16
.3
14
.0
18
.6
21
.0
14
.6
16
.7
10
.2
16
.0
17
.7
20
.1
-1
2.4
10
. P
erce
nta
ge
of R
esp
on
de
nts b
y E
du
ca
tio
na
l A
tta
inm
en
t
Prim
ary S
cho
ol
11
.0
8.7
6.4
7.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
5.7
1.3
6.7
2.7
Junio
r S
cho
ol
5.3
5.0
6.4
5.0
5.4
0.7
3.3
7.7
0.0
5.4
4.7
Se
nio
r S
cho
ol
15
.7
16
.0
16
.6
13
.7
14
.6
19
.7
17
.9
15
.0
14
.4
17
.7
14
.4
Hig
he
r no
n-univ
ersity e
ducatio
n2
3.0
18
.7
20
.7
15
.0
18
.6
16
.7
22
.3
18
.7
23
.4
16
.7
24
.1
Univ
ersity
45
.0
49
.7
49
.5
57
.7
55
.6
57
.3
50
.5
52
.0
60
.2
51
.8
52
.8
No
ne
0.0
2.0
0.3
1.7
1.7
1.7
2.2
1.0
0.7
1.7
1.3
11
. T
ota
l S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
lds a
nd
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
Nu
mb
er o
f S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
ld
s3
00
30
03
00
30
03
00
30
03
00
30
03
00
30
03
00
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
de
nts
30
03
00
29
53
00
29
53
00
29
33
00
29
92
99
29
9
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
10
0.0
10
0.0
98
.3
10
0.0
98
.3
10
0.0
97
.7
10
0.0
99
.7
99
.7
99
.7
20
14
20
16
TA
BLE
7 (
co
ntin
ue
d)
So
uth
-S
ou
th
Zo
ne
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
IO
NS
SU
RV
EY
20
15
27
The South West zone consumers' overall confi-
dence index stood at -30.7 points in Q3 2016 .
The index dipped by 30.7 points below the level
achieved in Q3 2015. The outlook of consumers in
the quarter under review, could be attributed to the
deteriorating economic condition in the region,
drawdown on their savings/getting into debt and
the decline in their total net household income
(Table 8, Section 1 and Fig. 12).
Consumer outlook for the next quarter and the
next 12 months was positive at 24.1 and 29.3
points, respectively. The positive outlook of con-
sumers in the next quarter and the next 12 months
could be attributed to the expectation of improved
economic condition in the region, anticipated in-
crease in the total net household income, which
could lead to increased savings to meet their fi-
nancial obligations.
On average, more households in the zone expect
an increase in their expenditure on basic commod-
ities and services in the next 12 months. With an
average of 18.2 points, the index dipped by 4.4
points compared with 22.6 points obtained in Q3
2015 (Table 8, Section 5 and Fig. 12).
Consumer Expectations
Q3 2016, South West Zone
Consumer Outlook
The breakdown of the expected expenditure over
the next 12 months were: food & other household
needs, education, savings, investment and purchase
of consumer durables .Some consumers indicated
that they do not plan to spend substantial amount
of their income on debt payment and medical ex-
penses.
The proportion of respondents that indicated inten-
tion to buy big ticket items in the next 12 months
fell to 53.4 points compared with 63.6 points ob-
tained in Q3 2015. The buying intention index sug-
gests that the next 12 months would be an oppor-
tune time to purchase consumer durables, motor
vehicles and house & lot.
-40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0
Average Expenditure
Food & Other household needs
Education
Debt Payment
Medical Expenses
Savings
Purchase of Appliances
Investment
Purchase of Consumer durables
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle
Purchase of House
Others
Fig. 12a: South West Confidence Index on Amount of Expenditure in the next 12 months
Ex
pe
nd
itu
re I
tem
s
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
28
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.
Zo
na
l C
on
sum
er
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
xA
ll S
ect
ors
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
0.3
-2.3
-2.5
-1.6
-9.5
-11
.40
.04
.7-7
.5-2
3.8
-30
.7
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
39
.63
9.5
38
.93
3.8
24
.42
5.8
36
.73
4.1
29
.82
6.6
23
.1
Ne
xt
12
mo
nth
s3
7.9
35
.63
5.8
31
.62
8.0
32
.05
0.0
46
.44
2.8
42
.43
0.8
2.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utl
oo
k i
nd
ice
s o
n t
he
cu
rre
nt
eco
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n9
.0-1
.4-9
.9-5
.6-1
5.8
-21
.8-0
.11
1.6
-11
.0-3
3.3
-39
.9
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
8.7
-7.4
-16
.5-2
8.9
-33
.5-5
3.9
-9.7
-7.6
-20
.2-3
6.3
-69
.6
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
8.3
-2.9
-15
.1-8
.4-5
.91
0.8
-8.1
13
.8-6
.0-2
7.8
-30
.3
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
11
.7-4
.1-1
1.9
15
.8-1
2.8
-15
.58
.51
2.5
-8.3
-36
.5-3
6.5
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
6.1
12
.36
.71
0.0
-8.6
-35
.77
.72
7.1
-15
.1-3
4.8
-41
.0
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
-20
.1-1
0.9
-4.0
-6.1
-9.5
-8.0
-7.5
-10
.6-1
2.5
-20
.5-2
8.1
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-35
.6-2
3.5
-33
.5-1
4.7
-16
.5-9
.9-1
8.7
-34
.1-1
7.5
-44
.4-5
3.6
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-27
.1-1
1.8
-2.1
-8.4
-15
.8-1
4.7
-2.7
-23
.4-1
8.3
-25
.0-2
3.2
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-17
.5-1
4.9
3.8
-5.1
-2.8
-5.9
-15
.03
.3-1
3.7
-16
.9-2
3.8
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
-5.6
7.8
14
.01
0.0
0.6
-2.7
1.0
9.4
0.0
-6.8
-25
.5
Fam
ily
In
com
e1
2.0
5.5
6.3
7.0
-3.3
-4.5
7.8
13
.01
.0-1
7.8
-24
.1
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
7.7
-4.4
-11
.8-6
.9-2
7.7
-23
.77
.51
.28
.81
.6-1
9.6
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
11
.7-2
.00
.74
.01
0.8
13
.76
.22
3.9
6.3
-14
.5-2
8.3
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N 1
00,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
19
.71
7.5
21
.52
6.6
10
.09
.21
3.0
21
.73
.5-3
2.6
-19
.8
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
3.3
14
.31
9.1
11
.4-3
.4-2
1.4
4.8
-1.2
-13
.5-2
0.0
-26
.6
3.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utl
oo
k i
nd
ice
s o
n e
con
om
ic a
nd
fa
mil
y c
on
dit
ion
: N
ext
Qu
art
er
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n4
0.6
34
.42
8.4
31
.82
4.8
36
.84
8.4
50
.03
9.9
34
.42
4.1
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
43
.92
8.6
13
.2-9
.6-2
6.0
-28
.82
9.4
6.7
24
.32
1.9
6.3
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N 5
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
31
.52
4.6
18
.22
1.0
35
.14
5.1
52
.65
7.9
34
.53
0.7
25
.8
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
50
.64
7.5
39
.66
0.8
53
.34
9.2
54
.75
4.1
48
.83
8.3
22
.6
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
34
.13
2.1
36
.24
5.0
33
.25
3.2
43
.95
7.5
40
.13
8.9
30
.8
Fam
ily
Fin
an
cia
l S
itu
ati
on
21
.32
2.3
22
.81
5.8
8.0
15
.02
4.3
29
.31
5.4
9.8
2.3
Und
er
N 2
0,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
39
.42
2.4
-9.4
-19
.1-2
5.0
-36
.45
.93
6.5
31
.43
3.3
12
.5
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
10
.21
5.6
22
.51
4.0
15
.42
5.9
19
.73
1.7
19
.51
2.5
6.7
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
27
.32
5.5
32
.53
0.2
33
.33
1.5
28
.02
2.3
22
.81
4.3
1.5
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
18
.32
7.4
28
.92
7.8
5.3
18
.32
9.8
31
.0-0
.8-4
.0-5
.6
Fam
ily
In
com
e5
6.9
62
.06
5.5
54
.04
0.5
25
.53
7.5
23
.23
4.0
35
.84
3.0
Und
er
N20,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
33
.35
9.2
58
.52
3.5
32
.31
2.1
64
.72
3.1
42
.92
8.1
52
.5
Be
twe
en N
20,0
00 a
nd
N50,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
52
.86
0.7
61
.25
9.6
47
.13
5.8
35
.03
6.0
18
.63
7.5
35
.0
Be
twe
en N
50,0
01 a
nd
N100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
63
.06
4.5
68
.36
6.0
32
.43
3.9
35
.61
9.2
28
.32
5.5
48
.9
Ove
r N
100,0
00 p
er
mo
nth
59
.66
0.7
71
.45
4.4
50
.51
7.5
34
.41
6.8
52
.14
4.3
41
.1
20
16
TA
BLE
8
So
uth
-W
est
Zo
ne
20
14
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y2
01
5
29
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3
4.
Co
nsu
me
r o
utlo
ok
in
dic
es o
n e
co
no
mic
an
d f
am
ily
co
nd
itio
n:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
n3
4.2
31
.3
26
.3
28
.4
27
.0
37
.4
56
.4
54
.9
44
.7
42
.6
29
.3
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
42
.6
29
.5
22
.8
-2
2.5
-1
4.4
-3
8.8
62
.0
25
.7
33
.3
40
.4
15
.2
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
27
.3
23
.1
22
.5
22
.3
33
.5
39
.0
45
.1
36
.3
37
.7
37
.3
7.1
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
32
.0
28
.5
18
.4
48
.5
45
.0
53
.5
52
.4
57
.1
41
.5
40
.8
30
.3
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
39
.5
41
.5
37
.2
43
.3
36
.1
53
.2
63
.8
70
.4
52
.5
46
.6
42
.4
Fa
mil
y F
ina
ncia
l S
itu
atio
n2
7.1
27
.3
27
.3
24
.5
19
.5
20
.3
34
.3
31
.0
22
.8
17
.5
6.5
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
52
.9
45
.5
6.7
-1
3.3
-2
1.8
-4
6.6
8.0
24
.3
33
.3
34
.0
13
.0
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
18
.2
14
.3
24
.7
23
.1
25
.0
31
.5
25
.6
15
.5
13
.0
12
.0
-1
.3
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
27
.8
27
.7
31
.3
36
.0
40
.0
29
.2
36
.6
33
.1
27
.4
25
.0
8.4
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
26
.3
30
.6
32
.1
35
.3
27
.0
33
.3
40
.6
39
.5
21
.1
11
.8
7.7
Fa
mil
y I
nco
me
52
.4
48
.2
53
.9
41
.9
37
.6
38
.4
59
.5
53
.3
60
.9
67
.0
56
.5
Und
er N
20,000 p
er m
onth
50
.0
5.7
34
.8
5.8
-2
0.7
-4
1.4
66
.0
33
.8
75
.0
67
.0
56
.5
Be
twe
en N
20,000 and
N
50,000 p
er m
onth
46
.5
62
.1
60
.7
35
.5
46
.0
55
.5
65
.2
56
.5
62
.3
62
.7
59
.0
Be
twe
en N
50,001 and
N
100,000 p
er m
onth
47
.0
49
.6
54
.3
53
.5
61
.8
46
.5
55
.7
58
.3
52
.2
64
.1
50
.3
Ove
r N
100,000 p
er m
onth
62
.8
51
.6
55
.5
56
.7
52
.2
54
.2
58
.5
52
.0
64
.9
70
.5
61
.8
5.
Co
nfid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n A
mo
un
t o
f E
xp
en
dit
ure
s:
Ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Av
era
ge
8.0
16
.6
14
.6
9.8
11
.9
4.7
22
.6
14
.7
20
.6
12
.3
18
.2
Fo
od
& O
the
r h
ou
se
ho
ld n
ee
ds
52
.4
48
.2
53
.9
41
.9
37
.6
38
.4
59
.5
53
.3
60
.9
67
.0
56
.5
Ed
uc
atio
n5
2.5
51
.6
53
.8
43
.1
38
.4
33
.0
59
.0
52
.6
58
.0
54
.3
53
.4
De
bt P
aym
en
t-1
3.4
-1
7.3
-1
2.8
-2
6.1
-1
9.0
-2
3.3
-1
6.4
-2
0.5
-1
4.9
-1
2.9
-1
6.5
Me
dic
al E
xp
en
se
s-8
.0
-9
.0
-1
2.5
-1
7.1
-1
0.1
-2
1.0
-1
1.3
-1
9.0
-1
3.0
-1
8.3
-6
.0
Sa
vin
gs
15
.3
33
.1
32
.9
28
.5
29
.3
19
.8
42
.6
36
.2
40
.8
28
.9
31
.4
Pu
rc
ha
se
of A
pp
lia
nc
es
-1
.3
14
.7
11
.1
9.6
12
.5
0.0
16
.9
5.8
15
.3
4.4
10
.8
Inve
stm
en
t7
.1
24
.6
22
.6
21
.0
22
.0
11
.0
28
.1
30
.8
29
.0
19
.0
24
.7
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
on
su
me
r d
ura
ble
s
9.9
28
.0
23
.4
17
.4
15
.1
13
.0
35
.5
13
.5
30
.3
18
.0
24
.3
Pu
rc
ha
se
of C
ar/M
oto
r V
eh
icle
-1
0.4
6.3
-4
.8
-2
.5
2.0
-1
0.7
7.8
-2
.8
5.6
-1
0.1
5.4
Pu
rc
ha
se
of H
ou
se
-1
3.8
-2
.0
-7
.9
-9
.6
1.0
-9
.3
8.6
-1
.6
1.8
-1
8.0
0.1
Oth
ers
-1
.9
3.9
1.1
1.3
2.1
0.5
18
.1
12
.9
13
.3
2.6
16
.4
6.
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex:
Cu
rre
nt Q
ua
rte
r
Bu
yin
g C
on
dit
ion
s I
nd
ex
49
.6
47
.4
47
.6
45
.7
45
.5
40
.1
49
.5
44
.8
46
.0
40
.8
42
.1
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s5
6.0
52
.8
53
.1
53
.5
48
.4
47
.7
53
.9
56
.5
50
.5
41
.1
38
.0
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
48
.2
46
.5
47
.7
43
.0
47
.4
37
.2
48
.6
39
.3
44
.3
40
.4
45
.2
Ho
use
& L
ot
44
.6
42
.9
42
.0
40
.6
40
.7
35
.3
46
.0
38
.6
43
.1
40
.8
43
.0
7.
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
n I
nd
ex:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Bu
yin
g I
nte
ntio
ns I
nd
ex
57
.4
58
.6
57
.7
56
.3
54
.1
51
.3
63
.6
55
.6
57
.9
52
.2
53
.4
Co
nsu
me
r D
ura
ble
s6
3.5
63
.6
63
.7
62
.3
59
.8
60
.2
67
.1
65
.4
61
.4
58
.8
53
.3
Mo
to
r V
eh
icle
56
.8
56
.1
55
.1
53
.6
53
.9
48
.1
61
.9
51
.9
57
.2
51
.7
54
.3
Ho
use
& L
ot
51
.7
55
.9
54
.5
53
.2
48
.8
45
.7
61
.6
49
.4
55
.1
46
.3
52
.7
8.
Ind
ice
s o
n S
ele
cte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt 1
2 M
on
th
s
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
In
de
x
43
.1
33
.4
31
.1
21
.5
15
.5
14
.4
6.9
17
.8
10
.5
24
.4
21
.5
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
in
de
x2
9.8
17
.7
13
.0
13
.3
4.3
-7
.8
-2
.8
-1
.0
3.5
10
.3
9.8
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te
-2
.0
4.3
4.5
5.5
-1
2.5
-3
.3
15
.8
21
.9
8.1
-2
.5
-9
.5
In
fla
tio
n R
ate
in
de
x4
6.6
42
.1
48
.9
39
.3
22
.2
10
.2
21
.5
10
.4
26
.3
30
.9
27
.9
9.
Se
cto
rs C
on
trib
utio
n t
o p
ric
e c
ha
ng
es o
ve
r t
he
ne
xt 1
2 m
on
th
s
Fo
od
49
.2
51
.3
65
.5
50
.5
30
.8
12
.5
17
.0
15
.6
21
.0
32
.8
26
.9
Clo
thin
g &
Fo
otw
ae
r3
6.3
30
.3
44
.4
32
.3
26
.5
2.5
16
.8
3.3
17
.6
17
.5
25
.0
Ele
ctr
icity
55
.2
51
.3
57
.8
38
.3
27
.5
12
.5
17
.3
14
.8
47
.8
40
.8
35
.3
Wa
ter
35
.4
37
.3
36
.3
22
.5
12
.8
3.8
6.5
6.8
22
.8
25
.0
21
.5
Ho
use
Re
nt
63
.8
61
.3
69
.3
52
.5
36
.8
25
.8
39
.8
18
.1
45
.8
47
.3
34
.4
Tra
nsp
orta
tio
n4
8.4
52
.3
58
.4
43
.5
20
.0
9.3
21
.8
4.8
26
.7
31
.5
30
.8
Co
mm
un
ica
tio
n3
1.9
27
.5
30
.5
30
.8
10
.0
3.8
9.3
3.3
13
.0
18
.5
25
.1
Ed
uc
atio
n5
8.9
54
.0
61
.7
46
.8
23
.8
20
.3
35
.3
25
.6
36
.1
41
.3
42
.0
Me
dic
al C
are
54
.5
42
.3
48
.8
44
.3
22
.1
10
.0
30
.5
17
.8
22
.8
36
.5
31
.7
pe
rso
na
l C
are
39
.8
28
.3
38
.3
34
.8
18
.8
4.5
26
.3
8.8
24
.2
29
.0
23
.3
Ho
tel &
Re
sta
ura
nt
45
.5
38
.3
44
.0
42
.0
20
.1
7.5
24
.5
6.8
24
.0
30
.0
23
.4
Oth
ers
40
.1
31
.0
32
.3
34
.0
17
.5
10
.5
13
.5
-0
.3
13
.7
20
.3
15
.3
10
. P
erce
nta
ge
of R
esp
on
de
nts b
y E
du
ca
tio
na
l A
tta
inm
en
t
Prim
ary S
cho
ol
3.5
3.3
4.3
3.3
3.5
2.3
1.3
3.8
2.8
5.0
1.3
Junio
r S
cho
ol
3.0
4.8
3.8
4.5
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.8
3.3
2.8
0.8
Se
nio
r S
cho
ol
15
.6
17
.2
16
.5
14
.0
21
.8
11
.5
13
.8
18
.8
11
.1
14
.8
16
.8
Hig
he
r no
n-univ
ersity e
ducatio
n2
7.9
24
.2
24
.8
26
.5
24
.0
26
.0
26
.5
20
.8
27
.0
20
.8
27
.8
Univ
ersity
48
.5
47
.0
47
.0
45
.8
43
.5
53
.8
53
.0
48
.3
54
.3
53
.8
51
.8
No
ne
1.5
3.5
3.8
6.0
2.0
3.3
2.5
5.8
1.5
3.0
1.8
11
. T
ota
l S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
lds a
nd
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
Nu
mb
er o
f S
am
ple
Ho
use
ho
ld
s4
00
40
04
00
40
04
00
40
04
00
40
04
00
40
04
00
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
de
nts
39
84
00
40
04
00
40
04
00
40
04
00
39
64
00
40
0
Re
sp
on
se
Ra
te
99
.5
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
99
.0
10
0.0
10
0.0
TA
BLE
8 (
co
ntin
ue
d)
So
uth
-W
est Z
on
e
20
14
CO
NS
UM
ER
EX
PE
CT
AT
IO
NS
SU
RV
EY
20
15
20
16
