Indian Merchants’ Chamber Panel discussion on:

Monsoon 2014 and Effective Policy Response

Mumbai. June 26, 2014. Theme Address / Opening Remarks

G. Chandrashekhar

Chairman, IMC Committee for Agribusiness, Food Processing and Commodities

Background• IMD has forecast below-normal Southwest monsoon 2014

• Southwest monsoon in 2014 for whole country (June-September) likely to be below normal (90-96% of LPA)

• Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of LPA with model error of ±4%

• Region-wise, season rainfall likely to be 85% of LPA over North-West India, 94% of LPA over Central India, 93% of LPA over South Peninsula and 99% of LPA over North-East India, all with a model error of ± 8 %

• Monthly rainfall over the country as whole likely to be 93% of its LPA during July and 96% of LPA during August, both with a model error of ± 9 %.

Looming threat of El Nino • Indications of developing El Nino – dry

conditions across South Asia and Southeast Asia

• El Nino likely to strike in H2 2014; but timing and intensity uncertain

• When El Nino hits Asia, North America usually enjoys good spring crops (grains, oilseeds)

INDIA: what’s in store?• As of June 26, monsoon onset

delayed and weak; movement stalled near southeast coast; central and western parts are dry;

• June accounts for 15% of total rains; yet, delay has set off alarm bells; crop plantings lagging markedly;

INDIA: What’s in store?

• Effect on crop harvests, people, policies, politics . . . . .

• Agri: 15% of GDP shared by 53% of workforce; where’s the equity?

• Instruments of policy response: Fiscal, Monetary, Trade, Tariff, Administrative;

• Any +ve role private enterprise can play?