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The Zambian Case Study
Progress and Status of Integrating Accountability and
Evidence-based Policymaking Approaches in National
Development Planning Processes
Requesting Division: Capacity Development Division (CDD)
Development Planning and Statistics Cluster, UNECA
Submitted By:
Dr. Stephen Gumboh,
DA National Consultant- Planning
ZAMBIA
SEPTEMBER 2018
Page ii
Acronyms ........................................................................................................................ iv
Geopolitical Map of Zambia ............................................................................................ vi
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ vii
1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Rationale ..................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Objective and Scope ..................................................................................................... 3
1.4 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 3
1.5 Organization ................................................................................................................ 5
2.0 Analysis of Models and Processes of National Development Plans .......................... 7
2.1 Participatory Development Approach .......................................................................... 7
2.2 Sectoral Development Planning Approach ................................................................... 7
2.3 Integrated Multi-sectoral Development Approach ....................................................... 8
2.4 Strategic Planning Model ............................................................................................. 9
2.5 Theory of Change Model ............................................................................................ 10
1.0 The National Development Planning in Zambia ................................................... 17
3.1 Zambia Social and Economic Context ........................................................................ 18
3.2 Pre-2005 Developing Planning in Zambia .................................................................. 19
3.3 Post – 2005 Development Planning Frameworks ........................................................ 23
4.0 Status and Progress in the National Development Planning Process in Zambia .... 25
4.1 Post - 2005 National Development Plan Frameworks ................................................. 26
4.1.1 Vision 2030 .................................................................................................................................... 26
4.1.2 Fifth National Development Plan ................................................................................................ 26
4.1.3 Sixth National Development Plan ................................................................................................ 27
4.1.4 Revised Sixth National Development Plan .................................................................................. 27
4.1.5 Public Investment Planning, Appraisal and Management Framework ................................... 28
4.1.6 National Planning and Budgeting Policy .................................................................................... 28
4.1.7 Monitoring and Evaluation Frameworks ................................................................................... 29
4.2 Implementation Challenges of the Previous NDPs...................................................... 29
4.4 Lessons Learnt from Implementing Prior NDPs ........................................................ 31
4.3 Assessment of the Status and Progress of NDP Process in Zambia ............................. 36
4.3.1 Assessment of Status on NPBP Objectives ................................................................................. 36
4.3.2 Assessment of Progress on NPBP Objectives ............................................................................. 37
Objective One: Integrate National Planning and Annual Budgeting Processes ................................... 37
Objective Two: Strengthen Synergies in the Various Planning Processes ............................................ 39
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Objective Three: Facilitate Participatory/ Decentralized Development Planning and Budgeting
Processes ..................................................................................................................................................... 41
Objective Five: Facilitate Greater Evidence - Based Decision Making in Development Planning and
Budgeting .................................................................................................................................................... 44
5.0 Seventh National Development Plan (2017-2021): Formulation Processes and
Implementation Frameworks .......................................................................................... 45
5.1 Conceptual Framework of the 7th NDP ..................................................................... 47
5.2 Formulation Process of the 7th NDP .......................................................................... 48
Stage One – Issuance of National Policy Statement ................................................................................ 48
Stage Two – Review of National Development Policies .......................................................................... 48
Stage Three – Public Consultations .......................................................................................................... 49
Stage Four – Developing the Plan Zero Draft ......................................................................................... 50
Stage Five – Programme and Project Appraisal ..................................................................................... 52
Stage Six – Alignment of District / Provincial Indicators to NDP Indicators ....................................... 52
Stage Seven – Draft Plan (With various Options) ................................................................................... 52
Stage Eight – Draft NDP/Green Paper..................................................................................................... 53
Stage Nine – NDP Launch ......................................................................................................................... 53
5.3 Implementation Framework of the 7th NDP ................................................................ 53
5.4 Opportunities and Challenges .................................................................................... 54
6.0 Conclusions and Recommendations ..................................................................... 58
6.1 Key Issues .................................................................................................................. 58
6.2 Lessons Learnt ........................................................................................................... 59
6.3 Follow-up Actions and Recommendations .................................................................. 60
References ..................................................................................................................... 63
Annex 1: Types of Plans, Timelines and Purpose ........................................................... 66
Annex 2: Institutional and Consultative Framework for Development Planning ............. 67
Annex 3: National Performance Framework .................................................................. 68
Annex 4: National Development Planning /Formulation Process .................................... 69
Annex 5: The Five Steps in Evidence-Based Policymaking ............................................. 70
Page iv
Acronyms
ABB Activity Based Budgeting
CAGs Cluster Advisory Groups
CDC Commonwealth Development Cooperation
CSO Central Statistics Office
DDCC District Development Coordination Committee
DPD Development Planning Department
FNDP Fifth National Development Plan
GW-M&E Government Wide – Monitoring and Evaluation
HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Countries
ICT Information Communication Technology
IFMIS Integrated Financial Management Information System
IMF International Monetary Fund
INDP Interim National Development Plan
IRDPs Integrated Rural Development Programmes
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation
MIS Management Information System
MMD Movement for Multi-party Democracy
MoF Ministry of Finance
MoNDP Ministry of National Development Planning
MPSAs Ministries, Provinces and other Spending Agencies
MTEF Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
NDCC National Development Coordination Committee
NDP National Development Plan
NERP New Economic Recovery Programme
NIMIS National Integrated Management Information System
NPBP National Planning and Budgeting Policy
NPF National Performance Framework
NSDS National Strategy for the Development of Statistics
OBB Output Based Budgeting
PEM Public Expenditure Management
PEMFA Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Reforms
PDCC Provincial Development Coordination Committee
PFM Public Financial Management
PFMRS Public Financial Management Reform Strategy
Page v
PIM Public Investment Management
PIP Public Investment Plan
PIPA Programme Implementation and Project Appraisal
PIPAM Public Investment Planning, Appraisal and Management
PIPD Public Investment Planning Department
PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
R-SNDP Revised Sixth National Development Plan
RISDP Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan
SAGs Sector Advisory Groups
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SPF Sector Performance Framework
SNDP Sixth National Development Plan
TNDP Transitional National Development Plan
UNIP United National Independence Party
7thNDP Seventh National Development Plan
WDCs Ward Development Committees
Page vi
Geopolitical Map of Zambia
Page vii
Executive Summary
Over many decades past, many African governments have put much emphasize on
developing planning as a conduit of economic emancipation. The strategic priority in
development planning had been to ensure that the country’s development is enhanced to
achieve high levels of economic growth and significant reduction in the levels of poverty.
However, in many instances, earnest attempts by most governments to link development
programmes to national priorities have been largely impaired by lack of adherence to
development policy direction, more often leading to development choices of programmes that
did not meet the criteria for budget consideration. The major challenge in this quest for
economic emancipation has been lack of adequate capacity of African national planning
institutions in their planning processes.
The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) initiated the process
to build the much-needed capacity in some of the national planning institutions in Africa with
the aim of embedding the idea of integrating accountability frameworks and evidence-based
policies in development planning processes in form of National Strategies. The initiative to
enhance capacity in the development of National strategies was first targeted at five countries
in Africa namely Benin, Cameroon, Egypt, Kenya and Zambia. The bedrock of National
strategies was an evidence-based and data-driven policy-making approach that relies on
building credible accountability frameworks into the planning process with specific, verifiable,
measurable and monitorable milestones and targets.
Against the background, the UNECA engaged the relevant institutions in the targeted
countries to assist in the implementation of specific activities as related to national development
planning in their respective countries. Among the many activities was the development of a
case study of the development processes for each of the respective countries.
Page viii
The case study provided a platform to assess the status and progress of specific national
planning institutions; including opportunities for gender mainstreaming and also to examine
the countries’ existing evaluation and monitoring frameworks. This was meant to gauge entry
points for integrating accountability and evidence-based policymaking approaches in
development planning processes. The entry points were to assist in the development of specific
National Strategies for strengthening accountability and evidence-based policymaking in the
national planning processes.
The case study therefore sought to establish as to whether development policy reforms
undertaken by Government over the years have had any bearing on the effectiveness of the
development planning processes in the country and as to whether possibilities existed to
establish accountability and evidence-based policy making mechanisms in the Country’s
development planning processes.
In the study, a number of key areas of development planning in Zambia were analyzed.
The study presented a chronological order of the status and progress made in enhancing
development planning processes with the view of providing opportunities for integrating
accountability and evidence-based policy making approaches in development planning
processes.
Among the many issues identified in the report were those that bordered on strategic
formulation of macro-economic and fiscal frameworks and stakeholder consultations based on
communication strategies designed for the purpose. Also, there was the issue of the need for a
development plan with a clear focus/ strategy to conform with the shift from sectoral approach
to Integrated or Multi-sectoral approach meant to enhance the promotion of local participation
in development planning process. Other issues identified as key aspects in the development
processes were those linked to development cooperation and public investment planning,
appraisal and management.
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In terms of implementation strategy, the development of an integrated implementation
plan was one key issue identified. This pertained to the elaboration of inter- and intra-sectoral
synergies to complement efforts towards the implementation of various strategies under
development outcomes. The formulation of a change management strategy was another key
issue in the development processes. Change management strategy was to include change
management programmes that would bring about mind-set change among all stakeholders,
including the general public.
The guidance provided in the planning and budgeting policy makes it a key aspect to
the achievement of the Vision 2030. This is because the policy specifically defines national
measurement framework to track implementation progress of the Vision 2030 for each sector
by considering the key result areas, key performance indicators and baseline and target values.
The anticipation is that with its enactment into the National Planning and Budgeting legislation,
decision making and efficiency in the development planning process would be greatly
enhanced.
The study provided lessons to a number of areas of concern. These bordered mainly on
the challenges and problems detrimental to Public Finance Management (PFM) efforts, budget
credibility and development results. In the Zambian case, it was clear that the challenges
identified attributed to weak links between policy cycle and financial cycle. This was due to
failure to align the budget planning, programming and expenditure to national Development
Plan (NDP) and the Vision 2030. This was compounded further by the non-linkage of the of
budget planning to the National Performance Framework (NPF). The absence of the NPF
presented a difficult to quantifying and linking outcomes and impact to Vision 2030.
The development of the NPF was key as it was an appropriate tool to operationalize the
national long-term vision. This would be done by re-packaging long term strategic objectives
into the medium term by logically identifying and interpreting the strategic objectives
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contained in the national long-term vision. In terms of tracking implementation progress
towards realizing objectives in the Vision 2030, the NPF would enhance policy cycle and
strategic vision through the establishment of a strong linkage between defined national
outcomes and key performance indicators in the NPF with NDP and the Vision 2030.
With regard to budget credibility, the key lesson was that with the development of
sector specific performance frameworks (SPF), this would further enhance and improve the
alignment of the NPF with the MTEF, NDP and Vision 2030. Key to this was the establishment
of Sector Annual M&E plans based on SPF. In this way, systematic M&E of each sector
strategic goals, objectives, programmes and projects would be enhanced.
The re-engineering of the legacy systems into Results Based Budgeting was another
key lesson as this was meant to create linkages between the policy and financial cycle as well
as planning and implementation of the NDP and Vision 2030. It is envisaged that the
introduction of evidence-based policy making approach in the national development planning
process would further enhance the identification of gaps where evidence of programme
effectiveness is lacking. With this strategy, policymakers would be enabled to use evidence in
making development and budget decisions.
With the understanding that evidence-driven policy making relies much on systems to
monitor implementation and measure key outcomes, this therefore warrants the development
of a National M&E policy framework that would spell out the M&E best practices, principles,
processes, standards and procedures. The underpinning factor would be the development of an
Implementation Plan, M&E guidelines, manuals and tools for use or adaption across
government.
In order to enhance accountability and evidence- based policy making in development
planning processes, the study provided some recommendations vital for the successful
Page xi
development of the National Strategy for Strengthening Accountability and Evidence Based
Policy Making Mechanisms in Development Planning Processes in Zambia.
The recommendations mainly focused on the need for Government to heightened the
development of the NPF to enhance policy cycle and strategic vision through establishment of
strong linkage between defined National Outcomes and Key Performance Indicators in the NPF
with those in NDP and the Vision 2030; the development of Sector Performance Frameworks
(SPF) to improve the alignment of the MTEF with the NDP and the Vision 2030; the
development of the National M&E Policy Framework and Master Plan to guide
implementation across Government levels, agencies and sectors; development of a strategy to
strengthen enhancement of capacity (both human and institutional) across Government levels,
agencies and sectors; and also the development of a comprehensive Change Management Plan
to address issues of communication and objectivity in the development planning processes.
With the adoption of evidence-based policy making approach in the development
planning processes, the belief is that the Government would be able to reduce wasteful
spending by identifying and eliminating ineffective programmes in the planning processes. By
implication, this would enable freeing up of budgets for the expansion of innovative
programmes as well as strengthening accountability in the collection and reporting data on
programme operations and outcomes.
Page 1
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Background
Over many decades past, many African governments have put much emphasize on
developing planning as a conduit of economic emancipation. The strategic priority in
development planning had been to ensure that the country’s development is enhanced to
achieve high levels of economic growth and significant reduction in the levels of poverty.
However, in many instances, earnest attempts by most governments to link development
programmes to national priorities have been largely impaired by lack of adherence to
development policy direction, more often leading to development choices of programmes that
did not meet the criteria for budget consideration. The major challenge in this quest for
economic emancipation has been lack of adequate capacity of African national planning
institutions in their planning processes.
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), under its Capacity
Development Division took up the challenge to build capacity in five African countries namely
Benin, Cameroon, Egypt, Kenya and Zambia. UNECA’s objective was to assist the targeted
countries with strategies to integrate accountability frameworks and evidence-based policies in
their development planning processes and strengthen capacity to collect, compile and produce
the data necessary to inform and support development planning. The bedrock of this process
was an evidence-based and data-driven policy-making approach, which relies on building
credible accountability frameworks into the planning process with specific milestones and
targets that can be verified, measured, and monitored. Against this background, the UNECA’s
engaged the relevant institutions to assist it in the implementation of specific activities as
related to national development planning in the targeted countries. Among the many activities
was the development of case studies of the countries development processes. The purpose of
the case studies was to provide a platform to assess the status and progress of specific national
Page 2
planning institutions; including opportunities for gender mainstreaming and also to examine
the countries’ existing evaluation and monitoring frameworks. This was meant to gauge entry
points for integrating accountability and evidence-based policymaking approaches and by
using the case studies as entry points, to assist in the development of specific national strategies
for strengthening accountability and evidence-based policymaking in the countries’ national
planning processes.
1.2 Rationale
Zambia is one country that has coped with socio-economic factors that have influenced
its policy decisions on development for over five decades. These development policy decisions
have had a great influence in many areas of governance which in most cases were contradictory
to long-term development needs of the country. The impacts of such decisions were enormous
in situations where there were no effective planning processes for national development. With
the understanding that the fundamental objective of the planning process in any country is to
support its achievement of the social and economic development objectives, the absence of
effective planning processes meant that the country’s development was not supported
appropriately (Mulungushi, 2007).
With the notion that for the country like Zambia to foster its accelerated and sustainable
growth and to implement strategies for development as a means of meeting its development
aspirations, this case study seeks to establish as to whether development policy reforms
undertaken by Government over the years have had bearing on the effectiveness of the
development planning processes in the country or there are greater opportunities to establish
accountability and evidence based policy making mechanisms in its development planning
processes.
Page 3
1.3 Objective and Scope
The objective of the case study for Zambia is meant to assess the status and progress
of national planning processes in the five decades of its existence and to further examine its
existing evaluation and monitoring frameworks with the purpose of gauging the entry points
for strengthening accountability and evidence-based policymaking mechanisms in the
country’s development planning processes.
The case study though setting the stage for the development of the national strategy for
development planning processes, is to be used correspondingly as an avenue for capacity
building of development planning institutions. The study is to advocate for a robust institutional
and procedural approach to development planning by placing strong emphasis on creating
opportunities for capacity building within key development planning institutions. Ultimately,
the aim of the case study is to build internal skills and understanding of development planning
processes and procedures in the implementation of development programmes.
1.4 Methodology
Initial understanding of case studies globally was that it was aimed at analyzing specific
issues within the boundaries of a specific environment, situation or organization. According to
its design, case study methodologies could be divided into three categories: explanatory,
descriptive and exploratory. Explanatory case studies are those that aim at answering the ‘how’
or ’why’ questions over occurrence of events. This type of case studies focus on phenomena
within the contexts of real-life situations. On the other hand, descriptive case studies aim to
analyze the sequence of interpersonal events after a certain amount of time has passed. Case
studies belonging to this category usually describe culture or sub-culture, and they attempt to
discover the key phenomena. As for Exploratory case studies, these aim to find answers to the
questions of ‘what’ or ‘who’.
Page 4
To meet the objectives of this specific case study, structured methodology and approach
was followed. The structured methodology and approach for the case study considered the
exploratory and descriptive categories. These were found ideal to guarantee adequate coverage
of all aspects of the case study objectives.
The case study methodology was mainly qualitative in the sense that it mainly bordered
on the reviews of documents relevant to the task. Case studies are well suited for the purpose
in that with the phenomenon to be studied, it was easy to intensively investigate the
characteristics of development planning processes globally and assess these characteristics
pertaining to Zambia. By closely examining these characteristics and comparing and
contrasting them, it was study to explore the significant features of the global phenomenon and
how it varies with the Zambian circumstances. The review therefore was significant for the
purpose of appraising the contents and the current progress and status of development planning
approaches globally, continental, regional and national levels as captured in various document
and reports and then try to re-align to the key objectives of the case study, subsequently
narrowed to the existing policies and procedures for development planning processes in
Zambia.
The review was mainly to act as a base on what would constitute the most appropriate
mechanisms to strengthen accountability and evidence based policymaking strategies in the
development planning processes of Zambia. Some of the documents reviewed included:
National Budgeting and Planning Policy and Draft Bill, 2016; Public Finance Act; National
Development Plans (Fifth/ Sixth and Revised Sixth NDPs); Transitional National Development
Plan; Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and other relevant reports and articles on the
development planning processes.
After the documentation reviews, the desktop analysis of the data was conducted. This
was mainly for the purpose of identifying the gaps that needed consideration in the
Page 5
development of a national strategy for strengthening accountability and evidence-based
policymaking in Zambia’s national planning processes. The analysis was based on both policy
and processes as reviewed in the relevant documents referred to above. The analysis assisted
greatly in identifying the most important facts surrounding the case study and the key issue or
issues. This also allowed for specification of alternative courses of action and evaluation of
each course of action. Finally, the study was able to provide some recommendation on the best
course of action for the development of the National Strategy for strengthening Accountability
and Evidence Based Policy Making Mechanisms in the Developing Planning Processes in
Zambia.
1.5 Organization
The study is organized in six (6) chapters. Chapter one is the introduction which covers the
rationale of the study, its objective and scope, the methodology and its organization. Chapter two
presents an analysis of the models and processes of National Development Plans. These include
participatory development approaches, sectoral development planning approaches, integrated multi-
sectoral development approaches, strategic planning model and theory of change model. The chapter
also provides the national, sectoral, regional, continental and global perspective of development
planning with emphasis on some international best practice. Chapter three brings in the aspect of
national development planning in Zambia by presenting the socio-economic context of the country. It
further considers the pre-2005 development planning phenomenon in Zambia and the post-2005
development planning frameworks. Chapter four provides an analysis of the status and progress in the
national development planning process in Zambia post- 2005. This covers Vision 2030 , the Fifth,
Sixth and the Revised Sixth National Development Plans, the Public Investment Planning, Appraisal
and Management Framework, National Planning and Budgeting Policy, Monitoring and Evaluation
Frameworks. Implementation Challenges of the Previous NDPs and lessons learnt from Implementing
Prior NDPs are then presented. Thereafter an assessment of the status and progress of NDP Process in
Zambia is further present with emphasis of the status and progress on NPBP Objectives. Chapter five
discusses the Seventh National Development Plan (2017-2021) formulation processes in line with its
Page 6
conceptual and implementation frameworks. The chapter further brings out the opportunities and
challenges of the processes. Chapter six presents the conclusions by highlighting key issues and lessons
learnt in the study. Finally, follow-up actions and recommendations are provided.
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2.0 Analysis of Models and Processes of National Development
Plans In development, there are various models and approaches that are used for development
planning processes. Some of these models and approaches include participatory development,
sectoral and multi-sectoral development, strategic planning and theory of change.
2.1 Participatory Development Approach
This is an approach that is local-community-led. It introduces a bottom-up style of
development in order to remedy the government-led approach's shortcomings. The approach
specifically focuses on qualitative improvements in local society's participation in the
development planning processes. Participatory development planning emphasizes the
involvement of the entire community in the strategic and management processes of planning;
or, community-level planning processes, urban or rural. With this approach, views among all
of its participants harmonized and this helps to prevent conflict of views between opposing
parties. It is one approach where marginalized groups have an opportunity to participate in the
planning process (Chapagain, 2012)
2.2 Sectoral Development Planning Approach
Under the sectoral development planning, there are a number of approaches that can be
used in development planning. The Spatial Development Perspective is one of the approaches
of developments planning. The approach provides a multidimensional analysis of the national
space and indicates areas of potential to be developed over a period of 20 to 30 years. As for
the ‘Spatial Development Plans’, the approach differs from the aforementioned approaches in
that it is more of a comprehensive nature, addressing development over various sectors. These
plans are more specific in proposing what type of development should happen at which locality
and time. There is also the ‘Spatial Frameworks and Spatial Strategies’ approach which mainly
applies to provincial and district levels. These frameworks provide general guidelines to which
Page 8
public and private sectors must adhere. In the modern era, there is also the ‘National Planning
Approach’ that is free market-oriented whereby private sector investment and development is
attracted through public sector investment (Wikipedia, 2017).
In terms of sector development plan, these entail detailed statement of performance,
issues and opportunities, development objectives, policies and strategies that support the
developments in a specific sector e.g. Education, Agriculture, Water and Sanitation etc. It
provides a framework for the identification of public policy initiatives and projects in the
segment, including the role of the government agencies and the private sector in the
development of the specified sector.
2.3 Integrated Multi-Sectoral Development Approach
The integrated development approach emphasis on the need of coordinating different
perception of development under a single management system of essential components
required to get development moving. It is designed to provide an important role for
stakeholders in planning, decision making and implementation of the programmes. The main
emphasis is on rational development and coordination of all principal factors required for cross-
sectoral development (Chapagain, 2012)
Multi-sectoral approach emphasizes much on regional comparative advantage and
linkages. The approach enables resources to be focused on priority sectors unlike the case for
sectoral where resources are spread thinly across sectors with minimal impact. Further multi-
sectoral approach enables the triggering of mutually supporting activities in multiple sectors.
With the view that multi-sectoral approach has limited number of priorities to focus on; this
has greatest impact or higher rate of return on sector prioritized. This is contrasted with the
sectoral approach where there is no emphasis on unique priority areas and as a result the
approach does not have greatest impact due to single sector focus.
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2.4 Strategic Planning Model
Strategic planning is one such model is utilized in development planning processes.
The model encompasses the setting of goals, determination of actions to achieve the goals, and
mobilization of resources to execute the actions. It is more aligned to describing how the ends
(goals) will be achieved by the means (resources) (Montather, 2015). The model is more of an
organization's process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating
its resources to pursue this strategy. It may also extend to control mechanisms for guiding the
implementation of the strategy.
The aim is at identification, prioritization and validation of policies, it further defines
objectives, strategies and associated costs. This process includes all aspects of the economy
such as political realities, and economic, social, technological, legislative and environmental
issues, particularly when dealing with the situational analysis of an organization.
The ultimate aim of strategic planning model is to identify, prioritize and validate
policies, programmes and projects at the sub-district, district, provincial and national levels.
This is done in a systematic manner and with agreed instruments as well as the participation of
all stakeholders. This is to ensure that all considerations are made for all aspects that can go
wrong or right during implementation of programmes (Wikipedia, 2017).
The justifications for model approach are many depending on level at which it is to be
considered and effectively implemented. In other thought, the model is able to define the vision
and mission in which fundamental long-term aims are articulated. It does, more importantly,
provide further the definition of mechanisms and institutional and organizational frameworks
for implementation, monitoring and evaluation of development strategies that are made. This
is in recognition that the planning processes and the associated institutional structures are
important to deal with the environmental factors, systematizing planning and economic
Page 10
management. The model further introduces logic to decision-making of the organization
through political and technical interactions.
2.5 Theory of Change Model
A Theory of Change (ToC) model is appropriate to development planning. It is a model
that articulates, in a systematic way, how strategies, activities or programmes contribute to a
set of specific outcomes through a series of intermediate results. It describes the pathway
through which change is to come about (i.e. what is needed for goals to be achieved) in the
context of how the economy is going to diversify; what results will be needed to attain
diversification; and what interventions are to bring about these results. It also describes the
underlying assumptions and conditions necessary to bring about this change. It further defines
the pieces and steps necessary to bring about a given long-term goal (http://theoryofchange.org,
2017)
In terms of process, the Theory of Change model uses a specific type of methodology
for planning, participation, and evaluation in government sectors to promote social change. The
model defines long-term goals and then maps backward to identify necessary preconditions. It
further explains the process of change by outlining causal linkages in an initiative, i.e., its
shorter-term, intermediate, and longer-term outcomes. The identified changes are mapped –as
the “outcomes pathway” – showing each outcome in logical relationship to all the others, as
well as chronological flow. The links between outcomes are explained by “rationales” or
statements of why one outcome is thought to be a prerequisite for another. The innovation of
model thus lies in making the distinction between desired and actual outcomes, and in requiring
stakeholders to model their desired outcomes before they decide on forms of intervention to
achieve those outcomes (Wikipedia, 2017)
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2.6 National, Sectoral, Regional, Continental and Global Perspective
Globally, development planning is a multifaceted and cross-cutting undertaking that
plays an important role in shaping and accelerating the achievement of a country’s development
goals and priorities. By design, development planning is a long-term programme that is meant
to effect some permanent structural changes in an economy. In terms of process, it is
government that sets out objectives about the way it wants the economy to develop in the future
and then intervenes to try to achieve those objectives. The process entails a country coming up
with strategies that are carefully mapped out with a strategic focus to bring about the desired
national development aspirations. This requires high – level planning1 approach that entails
countries coming up with well-researched and well-reasoned development plans that prioritize
and synchronize activities so as to rationalize the scarce resources meant for development with
the aim of ensuring that national development plans utilize the available resources more
effectively to achieve well-defined objectives.
In the analysis of literature, development planning is generally understood as concept
that is anchored on effective and inclusive participation in planning processes; evidence-based
plans which are standardized and aligned to the National Development Plans (NDPs) and the
National Vision; integration of cross-cutting issues and policies; fulfillment of mandates of
development institutions according to their technical capacities; transparency and value for
money in service delivery as well as integration of development policies, legislation, plans and
programmes. Thus, perceptions of development planning may be at variant depending on
policy direction and strategic focus.
1 Hansen, Higgins & Savoie (1990) defined high level planning as “policy that reflects both what is happening
within national society and national economy at any particular time and the prevailing economic and social
philosophy at that time; and these interact with one another”.
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Development planning especially in developing countries had its initial focus on social
development and an overriding emphasis on the reduction of extreme poverty. This was in
pursuit of macroeconomic stability, growth and poverty reduction and structural transformation
in their development agenda. This global perception of development planning has since
evolved from a narrow focus on poverty reduction in developing countries to a much broader
objective of inclusive growth underpinned by structural economic transformation2. From the
foregoing, it can be understood that development planning is an important process for
economic development. This is more reason why countries have engaged and will continue to
adopt planning instruments in their development pursuits.
The understanding is that development planning provides a systematic approach to
identifying, articulating, prioritizing and satisfying the economic and social needs and
aspirations of a country within a given or limited resource envelope (UNECA, 2016). This
could be attested by the number of local and global initiatives that are targeted at development
goals. In developing countries for instance, most of the strategic projections of development
objectives for their development plans emanate from global, continental, national, regional and
sectoral institutions while others are formulated in multilateral and international frameworks.
The broader development plans often take into consideration various global and
continental development goals and frameworks. Global development agendas such as the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)3, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)4 and
2 In terms of structural economic transformation, this requires a more inclusive approach to planning; more
effective mechanisms of implementation and robust monitoring and evaluation systems that track progress and
corrective measures to improve plan implementation.
3 The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs are a set of 8 "Global Goals" adopted by the United Nations for
global development.
4 The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), officially known as “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda
for Sustainable Development are a set of 17 "Global Goals" with 169 targets between them and are spearheaded
by the United Nations.
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Poverty Reduction Strategies have shaped the development priorities of most of the developing
countries in their quest for social development and the eradication of extreme poverty.
At continental level, various approaches to development planning have influenced the
development path in most of the developing countries. In Africa for instance, the first phase of
development planning in the 1960s was characterized by centralized planning with three to
five-year planning phases. These plans promoted state-engineered economies with resources
allocated by governments. This also culminated in most of the state-owned enterprises
operating in most of the productive sectors of the economies.
The second phase in the evolution of planning in Africa was marked by a wholesale
abandonment of planning under neoliberal Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs), which
emerged in the 1980s-1990s with the support of the IMF and the World Bank. SAPs aimed to
reduce the role of the State in production and service delivery and placed emphasis on
macroeconomic stability, downsizing of public sector institutions, privatization and reducing
government spending and budget deficits.
Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRSPs) were introduced in the early 2000 with the aim
of reversing the negative effects of a decade of SAPs. PRSPs placed strong emphasis on
poverty reduction but as a condition for debt relief. This made most of the countries to embark
on at least two generations of PRSPs as eligibility criteria for debt relief (UNECA, 2016).
In the recent past, continental bodies have put in place or designed framework for their
own development. One such framework is the ‘Africa 2063 development Agenda’5 developed
by the Africa for Africa’s development. Agenda 2063 is an ambitious, Pan-African people-
centered vision and action plan that aims to position Africa for growth over the next 50 years,
5 It is a strategic framework for the socio-economic transformation of the continent over the next 50 years. It
builds on, and seeks to accelerate the implementation of past and existing continental initiatives for growth and
sustainable development.
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incorporating lessons and experiences from the past. It is a global strategic rolling plan with
short- (10 years), medium- (10–25 years), and long-term (25–50 years) perspectives. Critical
success factors for Agenda 2063 include the participation of multiple stakeholder groups at all
stages, a results-based approach with measurable objectives, and inculcating the right set of
African values in line with the African Renaissance which suggests the transformation of
attitudes, values, and mindsets. As both a vision and an action plan, Agenda 2063 boldly calls
for Africa's “positive socio-economic transformation”. It goes beyond drivers for economic
growth or development, and calls for transformational change, open governance, and shared
prosperity (African Union Commission, 2015).
In terms of regional perceptive6, development planning takes multi-jurisdictional
approach in addressing development. This is with regard to socio-economic issues in terms of
physical boundaries and also the extent of the development being perceived. Economic
regionalism for instance focuses on coordinated development activities tied to a comprehensive
economic development strategy for a geographically connected region. Economic regionalism
therefore entails the existence of linkages and collaborations among stakeholders within an
economic region of geographical proximity. Regionalism as a concept in planning may be
considered as a framework for addressing socio-economic and environmental challenges of
multiple jurisdictions anchored on capable institutional frameworks (Wikipedia, 2017).
For regionalism to be seen as progressive, many regional organizations have designed
institutional frameworks that supports participation and representation to produce effective
economic growth strategies while promoting equity.
A key example of regional development framework is the Regional Indicative Strategic
Development Plan (RISDP). RISDP is a comprehensive development and implementation
6 A region is defined spatially in relations to the definite physical boundaries of an area or based upon the nature
of the particular focus of attention.
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framework which guides the regional integration agenda of the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) over a period of fifteen years (2005-2020). It is designed to provide clear
strategic direction with respect to SADC programmes, projects and activities in line with the
SADC Common Agenda and strategic priorities, as enshrined in the SADC Treaty of 1992.
The ultimate objective of the plan is to deepen integration in the region with a view to
accelerating poverty eradication and the attainment of other economic and non-economic
development goals (SADC, 2012).
At national level, many developing countries have continued to engage in development
dynamics which are designed to create conditions for sustainable growth with option for a long-
term vision of development. These engagements have been undertaken using a number of
approaches as stated earlier.
2.7 International Best Practice
The experiences of developing countries mostly in Africa and Asia provide lessons in
development planning approaches, especially in the context of the post-20157 development
agenda and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and most especially on the design,
implementation and monitoring of development plans (UNECA, 2015)
In Asia, the transition to sustained growth has consistently been associated with policies
aimed at macroeconomic stabilization; improving life in the rural sector, increasing agricultural
productivity, and ensuring an ample supply of food; liberalizing the economy and creating
conditions of economic freedom. There are other factors such as industrialization on the basis
of foreign direct investment (FDI); systems of politics and governance; and cultural patterns
that manifest in policy choices. In Africa, initiatives in these directions have in some instances
7 The Post-2015 Development Agenda refers to a process led by the United Nations that aims to help define the
future global development framework that succeeded the Millennium Development Goals.
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been present, but the simultaneous pursuit of all policy objectives has proven otherwise
(Donge, Henley and Lewis, 2015).
In terms of practice, the Africa- Asia experiences provide some relevant primary
lessons for Zambia’s development planning process. One of the lessons includes the notion that
development planning is crucially imperative for Zambia as it strives to achieve socio-
economic gains for prosperity (UNECA, 2015). Equally, the need for committed leadership to
guide the development planning is one key lesson. Effective leadership is another vital aspect
in development planning in that it is required to drive the planning process towards the
achievements of the intended objectives within the available means. Thus, national ownership
of development planning processes and effective leadership by the government as well as
alignment with national development plans and strategies is one of the essential lessons from
the Asia experience.
Further, another critically paramount lesson to advancing development planning agenda
is the understanding that there is “no one size fits all approach” to development planning. In
other words, approaches that work for one country may not necessarily work for another.
Furthermore, approaches that work at one point in time for any given country may not be
appropriate at another point in time. Additionally, stability is a critical lesson in the
development planning process in the sense that discontinuities including those caused by
constitutional and unconstitutional regime changes may contribute to implementation failures
in the process. Evidence-based development planning must therefore be nationally-driven and
not to follow approaches that can not apply to a country’s demographic and socio-economic
potential to eradicate poverty and foster economic growth in Africa (UN News Centre, 2010)
As for political commitment, this is one aspect that is vital for nurturing a strong
development planning institutional structures. This is to avoid situations where development
planning structures are subjected to the whim of the political dispensation. This arise from the
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notion that in the early stages of the planning process in most developing countries, the
effectiveness of development planning institutional structures depended on the political
commitment to nurture and sustain them.
In terms of aid, one of the pivotal lessons for Zambia is reliance on aid while owning
and leading its development process by designing a robust development plan with a clear set
of priorities and assigning donors to specific sectors of development and this can only be
achieved when there is strong commitment toward the development goals defined.
Arising from the lessons learnt from Asia, there is now a promising revival of
development planning in most of the African countries as well as a growing role for the state
in the economy. Many African countries are now developing plans and national development
strategies, with targets for growth, jobs, and structural transformation and with a mix of the
state and market, public and private sectors and long-term vision of ownership by Africans
(Khor, 2013).
3.0 The National Development Planning in Zambia
Zambia is one of the African countries that lie geographically between thirty degrees
east and fifteen degrees south of the equator. It has a total land area of 752,614 square
kilometers and is neighboured by eight countries namely Angola and Namibia to the west and
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southwest, Botswana and Zimbabwe to the south, Democratic Republic of Congo to the north
and northeast and to the east Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique. It became a sovereign state
on 24th October 1964. Its population is estimated at 15.9 million (Central Statistical Office,
Zambia, Census, 2016).
Administratively, the country is divided into 10 regional areas (provinces) with Lusaka
as its capital city. Other major cities are Livingstone, Ndola, Kitwe and Chipata. Zambia’s ten
provinces and 108 districts have very different conditions and potentials, which are critical to
deal with social and economic sectors in terms of development.
3.1 Zambia Social and Economic Context
The Zambian economy is a duality in terms of its structure. On one hand there is a
modern industrial sector dominated by the copper industry and a small manufacturing sector
and on the other, there is the agricultural sector dominated by a large number of peasant
farmers.
Over the five decades of its post-independence existence, the government has made
efforts to correct the imbalance through support to the agricultural sector as part of the
structural economic transformation agenda. However, the achievements have been falling short
of the intended goals. The agricultural sector has over the years not made significant
contributions towards raising the incomes of the majority of the poor people in the poverty
stricken rural areas of the country (Gumboh, 2012, MoNDP, 2016, BoZ, 2016).
With regards to development, the country has over years equally coped with socio-
economic factors that have influenced its policy decisions on development. These policy
developments have had a great influence in many areas of governance which in most cases
were contradictory to long-term development needs of the country. The impacts of such
decisions were enormous in situations where there were no effective planning processes for
national development (Mulungushi, 2007).
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With the logic that the fundamental objective of the planning process in any country is
to support its achievement of the social and economic development objectives, it therefore
follows that the country, as one of the developing economies, has had to undertake many radical
reforms in its quest to improve development planning for economic efficiency.
The Government of Zambia (GRZ), like many other governments of developing countries, has
faced a number of challenges in implementing its development agenda, specifically when development
entails the transformation of Zambia’s landscape in terms of physical infrastructure (transportation,
energy, water supply, sanitation) and social infrastructure (quality healthcare, education and public
administration). This transformative developmental agenda was in turn expected to create the
productive capacity for national growth and prosperity.
In addition to the institutional challenge of inadequate capacity to explore accountability
frameworks and evidence-based policy tools in the process of development planning, lack of a clear
and central mechanism to guide the translation of development plans into strategic and prioritized
programmes led to public funds being allocated inefficiently. The success and realization of
development programmes therefore called for adherence to sound preparation and well-managed,
transparent planning processes throughout the programme life cycle, combined with a timely matching
of programme preparation and procedures. This not only ensures well defined programmes but also
ease of implementation and monitoring, which are vital for the delivery of any development programme.
Such an approach will also ensure that development is effectively planned and scarce resources are
optimally allocated, which will ultimately enhance the credibility of the National Budgeting system.
3.2 Pre-2005 Developing Planning in Zambia
From the time of its sovereignty, Zambia, through various governments, has developed
a number of development plans in the quest to transform its economy. Some of the notable
developmental efforts of various governments in Zambia over the five decades of its existence
as a sovereign state are: Emergency Development Plan (1964-1965), Transitional National
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Development Plan (1965-1966). First National Development Plan (1966-1970); Second
National Development Plan (1972-1976); Third National Development Plan (1979-1983);
Interim National Development Plan 1987-1988; Fourth National Development Plan (1989-
1993); The Poverty Reduction Plan (1999-2004); Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (2002–
2004); Public Investment Programme (2002-2004); Transitional National Development Plan
(2002-2005);
In the analysis of the development plan strategies, it was clear that the initial plans focus
was at reserving the imbalances in terms of equitable development throughout Zambia
(Mulungushi, 2007). The plans were all aimed at counteracting the adverse effects of pre-
independence era which created structural imbalances and lopsided development. This was the
more reason why the government had initiated the process of economic and social
infrastructure development and diversification of the agricultural and industrial base. The First
National Development Plan (1966-1970), for instance was aimed at improving social and
economic infrastructure starting with the key sectors such as the transport and communication,
health, and education. This was done with the aim of enhancing human capital development
most especially for the purpose of maximizing Zambianisation of jobs (First National
Development Plan, 1965).
The Second National Development Plan (1972-1976), on the other hand, was designed
to carry further the process of economic and social growth by placing major emphasis on rural
development (through Rural Reconstruction Programmes and later Integrated Rural
Development Programmes) equally aimed at reducing income disparities and regional
imbalances in the economy. Having built basic economic and social infrastructure in the
previous plans, Government embarked on the process of industrialization. This was done by
putting up industries in rural areas depending on the local resource endowments as a strategy
to local industrialization (Second National Development Plan 1971).
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Under the umbrella of the Third National Development Plan (1979-1983), the
government continued with its rural development and diversification programmes particularly
through the Integrated Rural Development Programmes (IRDPs). The Interim National
Development Plan (INDP) (1987-1988) was prepared as a stop-gap measure and as a bridging
gap between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank programme and the
Fourth National Development Plan based on the New Economic Recovery Programme
(NERP). After the INDP, the government went back to develop the Fourth National
Development Plan (1989-1993), whose objectives were of the long and short-terms. The Fourth
NDP objectives mainly aimed at integrating women in the development process as a strategy
of engendering development; identification and promotion of productive informal sector
activities, which had potential for growth and employment generation; reduction in the existing
socio-economic and regional disparities and improvement in the living standards in rural areas;
according high priority to the development of agriculture; promotion of regional development
on the basis of the characteristics and development potential of each region among others
(Fourth National Development Plan 1988).
At the inception of the liberalization of the economy in 1994, after the change of
political power from United Nations Independence Party (UNIP) government to the Movement
for multi-party Democracy (MMD) government, this era saw the abolition of central planning.
In principle, it was the era that brought to an end - the preparation of the five-year plans. With
the economy liberalized, the government initiated the idea of preparing Policy Framework
Papers, Poverty Reduction Plan, Public Investment Programme and Poverty Reduction
Strategy Paper as planning documents.
The Poverty Reduction Plan (PRP) (1999-2004), for instance, stipulated development
priority areas that included achieving broad based economic growth through agriculture and
rural development; provision of public physical infrastructure; increasing productivity of urban
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micro - enterprises and the informal sector; developing human resources; and coordinating
monitoring and evaluation of poverty reduction programmes and activities (National Poverty
Reduction Plan, 2000).
As for Public Investment Programmes (PIPs), these covered capital programmes
designed by Ministries, Provinces and Other Spending Agencies (MPSAs). In the absence of
five-year development plans, the PIP provided the framework for capital programmes to be
implemented in three subsequent years. The idea of the PIP was to prioritize programmes in
the public sectors earmarked for implementation in accordance with the available resources.
For this reason, the PIP showed the resource gaps and formed a basis for resource mobilization
internally and from donors (Public Investment Programme, 2002).
The development of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Zambia was
initiated in 2000 and its implementation ran up to 2004. The PRSP was part of Highly Indebted
Poor Countries (HIPC)8 initiative aimed at reducing indebtedness of the poorest countries by
cancelling debts and using the savings to finance targeted poverty reduction programmes. The
PRSP document was thus a prerequisite for accessing HIPC funds for Poverty Reduction.
The Transitional National Development Plan (TNDP) (2002-2005) was the off-short plan
meant to fill the gap before the Fifth National Development Plan (2006-2010). TNDP was a
continuation of PRSP in that it included all sectors of the economy. This was aimed at further
projecting economic planning from a national outlook. Whereas PRSP only dealt with a few
sectors such as Economic, Social, Population and Good Governance, the TNDP included
sectors omitted such as Defense and Security, Central Policy and Administration. The belief
was that the economy was an integrated entity and should therefore ensure that all sectors
moved in tandem (TNDP 2002).
8 HIPC was designed by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of their
structural adjustment programmes.
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3.3 Post – 2005 Development Planning Frameworks
In the review of the Public Expenditure Management (PEM), it was clearly established
that the Government of Zambia had in the past ten years, undertaken a number of reforms to
enhance public expenditure management. Notable among the reforms was the Public
Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability (PEMFA) Reforms (2003- 2007),
whose key components included the development of the Medium-Term Expenditure
Framework (MTEF), and the Integrated Financial Management and Information system
(IFMIS).
By developing and implementing the MTEF, Government aimed to achieve objectives
anchoring on reforming the framework governing public expenditure management in order to
make it more results-oriented and geared to achieving development outcomes; improving the
efficiency, effectiveness and accountability of government institutions when developing and
implementing their programmes and activities; provision of more concrete information to
Cabinet on the performance of the budget for decision- making purposes and for setting future
targets and priorities; provision of information to help reallocate resources between institutions
and programmes; reduction in expenditure when necessary; and institutionalization of
accountability throughout the process by aligning budgets to policy priorities and targeted
outputs/outcomes and increased transparency of the budgeting process (MTEF document,
2005)
The IFMIS whose development was initiated in 2005, on the other hand, was aimed at
assisting the Government to strategically manage public financial resources through an
automated and integrated information system. In its design, the IFMIS was meant to enhance
accountability, transparency and cost effective public service delivery. It was envisaged to
improve service delivery in public sector, by enhancing the production of timely and reliable
financial statements, strengthening financial controls to ensure better availability of the
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financial data and enhanced transparency and accountability of the executive to the public
(IFMIS Report, 2010).
Public Financial Management Reform Programme (PFMRP) (2013-2015) that
succeeded the PEMFA, focused on the legal and institutional framework for supervising all
phases of the budget cycle, including formulation and preparation of the budget, budget
execution and expenditure management. The broad objectives of the PFM were to achieve
overall fiscal discipline, allocation of resources to priority needs and efficient and effective
delivery of public services (PFMRP, 2013)
The PFM reform strategy applied an all-inclusive, systematic view of the PFM system
which is aimed at consolidating macroeconomic stability as one of the key objectives of
National Development Planning. The PFM reform strategy is mainly focused on the need to
further improve Government’s capacity to utilize public funds towards meeting the growth and
employment targets for the medium term and ultimately those of the vision 2030. The PFM
reform strategy included key components of the PFM system as well as cross-cutting issues
related to capacity building, public procurement and internal controls and audits among others.
The PFM reforms encompassed ten components among which were the Integrated Planning
and Budgeting and the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) components, key to the development
planning efficiency in Zambia.
In the PFM context, the Integrated Planning and Budgeting component was aimed at
improving the development planning and budgeting processes to enhance the development and
service delivery impact of the public service. Core programmes of the component included the
development of the planning and budgeting legislation; development of manuals for planning,
budgeting and M&E; capacity building on all administrative levels to ensure compliance to
planning and budgeting Act; designing of the change process; sensitization on Planning and
Budget Act and its impact on processes (PFMRP, 2013).
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The M&E Component, on the other hand, focused on strengthening monitoring and
evaluation systems with the aim of providing evidence-based development planning, budgeting
and programme implementation. Among the key programmes in the M&E component was the
establishment of M&E functions in all MPSAs; development of the MIS and budget execution
monitoring (NPBP,2014).
4.0 Status and Progress in the National Development Planning
Process in Zambia
In the post - 2005, national development plans become the cornerstone of the
development planning processes in Zambia. These plans have been undertaken through long
term, medium term and annual plans in the form of twenty-five - year National Long-Term
Vision and five-year National Development Plans (NDPs). All the types of development plans
with timelines and purpose are as presented in Annex 1.
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4.1 Post - 2005 National Development Plan Frameworks
4.1.1 Vision 2030
The Vision 2030 is the national long-term development framework for Zambia. The
Vision 2030 expresses the aspirations of the Zambian people to be accomplished by the year
2030. It articulates the appropriate national and sector goals to meet the people’s aspirations.
It is based on policy-oriented research on key national strategic issues and on a process of
discussion and dialogue with the private sector, civil society and the general citizenry on the
long-term goals and future of Zambia (Vision, 2030).
In the Vision, the desirable long-term paths of the socio-economic indicators to satisfy
the people’s aspirations are outlined. These socio-economic indicators articulate possible long-
term alternative development policy scenarios at different points through to the target year. The
vision is the basis for interface by all sectors and provides directions for short and medium-
term plans. Its realization is dependent on the actions and measures to be undertaken by
Government, private sector cooperating partners, civil society and as individuals in the
development and eventual implementation of the short and medium-term national development
plans. The development plans are perceived to create necessary conditions upon which long
term objectives and targets are to be achieved.
The Vision is anchored on seven key basic principles and these include sustainable
development; upholding democratic principles; respect for human rights; fostering family
values; positive attitude to work; peaceful coexistence; and upholding good traditional value
(Vision 2030).
4.1.2 Fifth National Development Plan
In terms of development planning, the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP), 2006
– 2010 was the first important step towards the realization of the Vision 2030. It was anchored
on the vision’s strategic focus of “Economic infrastructure and human resources development”
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with its emphasis on financial and budgetary accountability, entailing the ability to account for
the allocation, use and control of public funds, public assets and properties (FNDP, 2006).
4.1.3 Sixth National Development Plan
The Sixth National Development Plan (SNDP), (2011-2015), the successor to the
FNDP, on the other hand, had its focus on the challenges that were faced in the implementation
of the FNDP, vis-a-vis the binding constraints to pro-poor growth and to enhance the
achievements made therein. The focus was more on macroeconomic objectives with emphasis
on the enhancement of macroeconomic stability; improvements in public expenditure
management; expansion in domestic revenue base; promotion of rural development;
acceleration of economic diversification and productive employment; and enhancement of the
quality of human development.
In light of the above objectives, the SNDP concentrated mostly at policies, strategies,
and programmes that were to contribute significantly to addressing the challenges of realizing
broad based pro-poor growth, employment creation and human development (SNDP, 2011).
4.1.4 Revised Sixth National Development Plan
The re-engineering of the SNDP to take on board the Patriotic Front’s Government
priorities to advance its development agenda culminated into the Revised Sixth National
Development Plan (R-SNDP), (2013-2016). Like other previous plans, the R-SNDP was
correspondingly aimed at achieving the objectives set out in the Vision 2030. It was primarily
a Public Investment Plan (PIP) which contained quantifiable programmes to inform sector
planning and budgeting processes. The plan with its strategic focus on “People Centered
Economic Growth and Development” provided a framework for accelerating socio-economic
development in the medium term. It had a comprehensive medium-term strategy for an all-
inclusive and sustainable development agenda (R-SNDP, 2013)
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4.1.5 Public Investment Planning, Appraisal and Management Framework
The development of Programme Implementation and Project Appraisal (PIPA) Manual
was one key achievement in the enhancement of the development planning processes. The
PIPA was developed in 2015 but was eventually reviewed in 2016 into Public Investment
Planning, Appraisal and Management (PIPAM) Framework to incorporate guidelines and
procedures.
The rationale for developing the PIPAM Framework was based on the notion that
investment was a key development planning aspect because of its greater impact on the
effective management of public investments mostly undertaken by implementing MPSAs in
Zambia. The scenario was that with the lack of a clear and central mechanism to guide the
translation of policy into strategic and prioritized public investments, the implication was that
public funds to development were inefficiently allocated (PIM Concept Note, 2015).
The introduction of the principle of project planning and appraisal for all public
investments however emphasized on sound preparation and well-managed, transparent
processes throughout the project life cycle, combined with timely matching of project
preparation and project financing. The sound preparation of public investment projects not only
ensures well defined projects but also ease of implementation and monitoring (PIPA, 2015).
4.1.6 National Planning and Budgeting Policy
The major achievement in the development planning processes was anchored on the
development of the planning and budgeting framework as part of the integrated planning and
budgeting reforms. The Government took major steps towards obligation by putting in place
the National Planning and Budgeting Policy, drafting of National Planning and budgeting Bill
and re-aligning of the key development planning institutions. All these were regarded as
prerequisites to improving development planning efficiency in Zambia.
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4.1.7 Monitoring and Evaluation Frameworks
Progressively, under the M&E component, major strides were registered in a number
of areas. Significant progress had been made in the development of a comprehensive
framework to monitor National Development Plans. Harmonized tools, templates and
performance indicators for reporting of progress had equally been developed. Equally of
significance was the aspect of having M&E functions institutionalized in all MPSAs. In
addition, the issue of capacity building for M&E practitioners was noted to have been
progressively pursued with the establishment of an automated reporting system having reached
an advanced stage.
4.2 Implementation Challenges of the Previous NDPs
Zambia like any other developing country has had many different planning tools
developed and applied in its development quest. Despite all the developed tools being in place,
the national development planning processes have always been associated with various
challenges. These challenges mainly were on weak linkages between the national development
plans, budgets and programme implementation and lack of synergies in the various planning
processes.
Weak linkages between national development plans and national budgets are mainly
attributed to the failure of the latter to be informed by the former in the formulation and
implementation processes. The weak linkages had to do with the absence of a clear planning
system for identification, selection and appraisal of programmes before inclusion into the
NDPs. The lack of a clear planning system for effective alignment of the national budgets to
the NDPs was a great factor to the failure to appropriate financing of the programmes
articulated in the NDPs.
On the other hand, the lack of synergies in the various planning processes is an attribute
of the absence of the robust planning system to synchronize and link the national budgets to
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National Development Plans. The difficulty to create synergies among the different tiers of
Government, that is, national, sector, provincial and district levels gave rise to fragmentation
in planning processes. For instance, priority sectoral plans for agriculture, education and roads
which were prepared by MPSAs were observed to have been done with no proper links to the
NDPs (Mulungushi, 2007).
Furthermore, inadequacy provision of guidance on development planning also led to a
gap between national development planning and the processes at the lower levels of
government. In addition, the consultative process and structure at the national, provincial and
district level, though supported by policy guidelines did not even have legal backing in the
sense that no legislation was passed for such arrangement, thus hampering the effective
implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the NDPs. This consequently compromised the
impact of these plans on economic growth, employment creation and poverty reduction.
Specifically, the FNDP, SNDP and R-SNDP which were structured as both policy and
investment plans had their own challenges. Specify challenge bordered on the plans having too
many designated priority sectors which resulted in resources being thinly spread with minimal
impact. This was further compounded by weak inter-sectoral coordination and programme
linkages leading to poor implementation sequencing and, ultimately wastes of resources (7th
NDP Concept note, 2016)
Further the support of FNDP and SNDP/R-SNDP through the annual budgets and
medium-term expenditure framework was identified as a major implementation challenge
because the amounts of funding and unpredictability of budgetary releases negatively affected
programme implementation and achievement of desired outputs and outcomes. Detailed
analysis of expenditures revealed that despite the NDPs having increased allocations to sectors
targeting key sector development programmes, the allocations in the budgets were not
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sufficient to implement most of the programmes. Equally, delays to avail funds on time to
MPSAs presented a further challenge in programme implementation. In addition, there was
noticeable mismatch between the programmes contained in the annual budgets and NDPs and
this was evidently clear to an extent that even when resources were released for programmes,
there were variations that led to resources being expended on non-core activities of the NDPs.
Poor uptake of results was another challenge in the NDP implementation as this led to
implementing agencies not having timely policy guidance with regard to the implementation
of the NDPs. The major attribute to this challenge bordered on poor appreciation of monitoring
and evaluation in MPSAs for internal use, coupled with fragmented systems within and
between MPSAs. With this challenge, data was untimely produced or simply not adequately
aligned to the information gaps of the users.
The lack of a national programme/project appraisal system was another challenge in
the NDP implementation. This was extremely significant in the effective implementation of
the previous NDPs. The absence of the system resulted in weak prioritization of
programmes/projects and this negatively impacted on programme implementation. The
delayed implementation of projects resulted in escalation of costs, as most projects overran
their completion dates, thereby putting pressure on the budget.
Although the NDPs provided for M&E frameworks and systems to support decision-
making processes, the frameworks and systems presented a challenge in that these were not
able to provide data as expected as most sectors lacked or had limited and weak Management
Information Systems (MISs) that made it difficult for information to be available on timely
basis.
4.4 Lessons Learnt from Implementing Prior NDPs
Lessons learnt from implementing prior NDPs greatly enlightened the need for effective
links between policy cycle and financial cycle. Consequently, this institutional weakness
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reveals the challenge of non-alignment of the budget planning, programming and expenditure
with NDPs and the Vision 2030, thus posing an adverse effect on PFM efforts, budget
credibility and development results.
The failure to link budget planning to National Performance Framework (NPF)9
presented some difficulties to quantify and link outcomes and impact to Vision 2030 as
intended. This was more pronounced in the efforts to track implementation progress towards
realizing the Vision 2030 objectives. With the development of NPF, it is expected that policy
cycle and strategic vision is going to be enhanced through the establishment of strong linkage
between defined National Outcomes and Key Performance indicators in the NPF with NDP
and the Vision 2030 (Mwenda, 2016). In Annex 3, the main components of the NPF are
graphically depicted.
As for budget expenditure, it was learnt that expenditure being linked to activity and
less on observed outcomes and impacts of previously implemented programmes/projects
provided a difficulty when comparing expenditure against achievements i.e. outcomes and
impact on the NDP and the Vision 2030. This scenario made it difficult to ascertain from the
budget programmes and activities if MPSAs were fully implementing the outcomes outlined
in the NDP.
The under - utilization of evidence-based policy making in the entire process reveals
the outright lack of documented analytical status of implemented programmes and projects, as
well as the poor utilization of recommendations from programme review process. This mainly
emanated from ineffective M&E data collection and dissemination as this had a greatest impact
on M&E processes in situations where data collection is manually generated and fragmented.
9 National Performance Frameworks describe what the Government wants to achieve over a period of time, by
articulating more fully the Government purpose, strategic objectives and expected outcomes. They help to sharpen
the focus of Government and enable the priorities to be clearly understood and provide a clear structure for
delivery.
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This situation makes the flow of data and information from sectors to be infrequent, largely
incomplete and sometimes inaccurate due to lack of documented process and guidelines.
Equally the lack of multi-year evaluation plans and evaluation policies is one lesson as
an attribute to the uneven and irregularities in M&E across government. With this scenario,
some sectors were well advanced in monitoring and had well developed indicators emphasizing
more on monitoring with very limited evaluations carried out. This was more attributed to
weakness in M&E capacity (in terms of numbers and skills) across sectors.
In the analysis of soft factors10, monitoring and evaluation tools are crucial for effective
functioning and implementation of M&E-MIS. This called for identification, appointment and
relevant capacity development of M&E-MIS champions in every sector by instituting change
process and promotion of the paradigm shift from viewing M&E functions as an additional
workload to being an important management tool geared towards promoting change and
realizing institutional and national goals and objectives.
In the absence or weak programme implementation, it was difficult to note tangible
outcomes in the programme implementation process. In some circles, poor implementation and
accountability systems at various levels were singled out as major factors to discrepancies in
outcomes.
In spite of most of the MPSAs having institutionalized M&E functions in their
structures, it was learnt that the issue of capacity (both human and institutional) in the M&E
and MISs in most MPSAs is critical in the development planning process. With regard to
institutional lapse in terms of monitoring and evaluation aspects, it was learnt that this was a
key issue in almost all M&E institutionalized MPSAs and this was attributed to institutions
10 Soft factors of Monitoring and Evaluation refer to psychological and latent elements (such as staff morale,
skills development and career progressions, motivation, commitment, respect for M&E leadership etc.)
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being more preoccupied to a greatest extent on collecting data and tracking and reporting on
inputs, activities and outputs, and to a lesser extent, on undertaking results analysis.
Evidently, it was clearly informed that MISs were key tools to the provision of basic
information to enable decision makers at every stage of the programme implementation process
to make evidence-based decisions on policy and programming choices and budget
requirements.
It was further learnt that the alignment of sector plans and programmes with the
National Development Plan tended to be difficult in view of budget allocation being activity
based. This compounded the problem of variations in programmes contained in the NDP and
those in the Budget, thus providing a difficulty to ascertaining as to whether budget
programmes and activities were fully being implemented towards the achievement of outcomes
as outlined in the NDP.
The weak challenge function during the programming phase of the budget was learnt
to have a lot of implication in the development planning process. This was attributed to most
of the MPSA activities or programmes being pushed through into the budget without first being
screened to ascertain whether these activities or programmes were in line with the development
aspirations of the nation as articulated in the NDP.
On the unified methodology, cross-sectoral processes, it was learnt that the
development of Government-Wide MISs was key in the development planning processes as
they provide support to ensuring comprehensive capture of data from disbursements-
expenditure outputs and results. The development of the Government-Wide M&E system is a
key mechanism by which the Government policies and programmes can be monitored and
evaluated at various levels in an inter-linked, standardized and time specific manner.
Additionally, reliable data for use in planning was learnt to be cardinal if validity and
relevance of information used is ensured in the development planning process of the NDPs.
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The examination of the M&E system showed that there was very little or no prioritization of
statistical data in informing decision making and plans in the development planning process of
the NDPs. In this respect, it was of paramount importance to prioritize the need for reliable
data that measure the variables that feed into the plan so that planning is not only scientific but
authentic. It was important therefore to make sure that the country has reliable data collected
and analyzed so as to effectively inform the development planning process of the NDPs.
Despite the recognition that statistics were vital in any development process for
planning, programme implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of progress, it was learnt
that this was not the case in Zambia. This is due to the fact that the Central Statistics Office
(CSO)11 was found not equal to its task as various Government ministries, departments, and
agencies were equally producing and disseminating sectoral data.
More critically, the production of statistics for outcome and impact indicators through
Censuses and Surveys by CSO and the production of mostly unstructured data by MPSAs from
their routine work with little involvement of CSO often lead to erroneous, inconsistent input
and output indicators. This results in the non-availability of timely and quality statistics to serve
as evidence for policy formulation, planning, and decision making in national development.
With these lessons above, it can be evidently stressed that evidence-based development
planning requires taking a holistic approach that is collective in nature if it is to bring about the
overall development objectives of the country. This approach requires an institutional design
of an evolving network that is flexible, open and capable of restructuring itself over time.
11 CSO is the focal government agency responsible for the development and management of official statistics
and making the data accessible to government organs, business community and public at large.
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4.3 Assessment of the Status and Progress of NDP Process in Zambia
In pursuant to the constitutional requirement under Article 118 (as amended by Act no.
20 of 2009) of the Constitution of Zambia12, the Government undertook some radical steps
towards meeting some of the essential features of an accountable and robust development
planning system. The National Planning and Budgeting Policy (NPBP) was the first ever policy
developed and aimed at strengthening the coordinated approach in undertaking national
development planning and budgeting processes in Zambia. The policy was anchored on the
vision of “a coordinated and integrated development planning and budgeting system that is
responsive, transparent, and accountable and results oriented” (NPBP, 2014).
4.3.1 Assessment of Status on NPBP Objectives
The NPBP objectives emphasized much on the integration of the national planning and
annual budgeting processes with greater results-orientation and strengthening of synergies in
the various planning processes. The other objectives centered on facilitation of more
participatory/ decentralized development planning and budgeting processes and the
enhancement of budget credibility. Key to the study is the objective to do with the facilitation
of greater evidence- based decision making in development planning and budgeting (NPBP,
2014).
In the policy, there is a provision for the development of an institutional framework to
provide for the formulation, approval, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of long term
and medium term NDPs. This is more to do with institutional linkages that are significant to
the national development planning efficiency. The integration of NDPs with Government’s
MTEF and annual budget formulation and execution processes is another key aspect in policy.
12 Article 118 required the enactment of the budgeting and planning legislation to provide for matters that relate
to the medium term and long-term development plan and annual budget as an enhancement strategy to
development planning in Zambia.
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It additionally consists of a provision for the division of responsibilities and powers in the
planning and budgeting processes between the various arms of the executive, the legislature,
local authorities and non-state actors13 (NPBP, 2014).
With the anticipated enactment of the National Planning and Budgeting legislation, the
legal basis for aligning and integrating planning and budgeting processes would be much
possible. Once the legislation is in place, this will further enhance the strategic and priority
development setting and transparency, accountability and good governance in appraisal,
selection and implementation of development programmes.
4.3.2 Assessment of Progress on NPBP Objectives
As part of the assessment strategy, comprehensive analysis of the development
planning objectives, strategies and implementation in terms of status is provided therein. The
analysis brings out salient features of each objective in terms of the progress made towards its
achievement.
Objective One: Integrate National Planning and Annual Budgeting Processes
The objective focused on the integration process of key frameworks in planning and
budgeting. The most identifiable among the frameworks are Activity Based Budgeting and the
Medium-Term Expenditure Framework. The objective is consequently premised on three
strategies and these include harmonization of the programme classification used in
development planning with that used in the annual budgeting process, strengthening inter and
intra institutional arrangements for linking planning and budgeting at all levels and expansion
of the scope of Activity Based Budgeting (ABB) to Output Based Budgeting (OBB).
13 An individual or entity that is not part of the public sector
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The Government initiated the ABB as a budgeting system in 2003. The ABB was the
“first generation” of budget reforms undertaken when formulating the 2004 Budget. This
entailed moving from incremental “line item budgeting”- where the focus was on the inputs to
be bought by MPSAs to ABB, where the focus shifted to programmes and activities, supported
by the spending plans of MPSAs. With the ABB process, the annual budget formulation
process began to be undertaken in a more strategic, medium-term context by producing a
“Green Paper” 14containing a rolling three-year MTEF.
The Introduction of MTEF in 2004 as the basis for budgeting in Zambia re-emphasized
the direction for improving public expenditure through better prioritization of programmes and
achieving better value for money spent. The major thrust for MTEF was on its emphasis for
planning of development to target diversification through increased public investment in
economic and social infrastructures and an improved legal framework for Public Financial
Management (PFM).
The initiation of the ABB and MTEF were observed to have laid the groundwork for
linking planning and budgeting processes by utilizing the planning and budgeting module
embedded in the IFMIS. The assessment found that the system had only been fully
implemented in 38 sites out of the 48 originally planned (IFMIS Report, 2010). As a result, its
effectiveness proved difficult to determine as the realized plans being actualized in the
implemented sites could not be assessed at the stage. The delay to effect the integration of the
planning and budgeting processes in the IFMIS were anchored on issues with regard to the
chart of accounts embedded in IFMIS that needed to be re-defined first so as to be in line with
that for development planning.
14 A consultative document through which the public are requested to submit comments and submissions for
incorporation into the budget for the subsequent years
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Another Government attempt to integrate the budget with national development
planning process was in the shift from ABB to OBB in 2015. This shift was aimed at enhancing
the budget’s role as a vehicle to spearhead development and deliver public services. It was
mainly initiated for the purpose of enhancing the implementation of various developmental
projects and service delivery across the country. The current ABB system, which Government
had been implementing since 2004, had posed challenges especially with regard to the
management, analysis, reporting and performance of the budget. The shift to OBB from ABB
was to enhance the process through which Government agencies were to be funded on basis of
delivery of planned and actual outputs and outcomes (MoF, Budget Call Circular, 2015).
The practicality of the shift from the ABB to OBB was first piloted in the Ministry of
Education in the 2016/17 budgeting process. This was with the possibility of rolling it out to
other MPSAs in the subsequent budgets and this was much dependent on the outcome of its
implementation in the pilot institution.
Objective Two: Strengthen Synergies in the Various Planning Processes
In realizing the synergies in various planning processes, the objective therefore takes
this into consideration and anchors its achievement on three strategies that include the
integration of planning and budget coordinating structures at district, provincial and national
levels; legal establishment of planning and budget coordinating structures at district, provincial
and national levels; and provision of clarity and periodic specification of the functions of each
of the functions required to planned and budgeted for.
Progressively, the Government heeded to the need to re-align institutions to promote
synergies in the planning, implementation, monitoring, evaluation and coordination of national
development programmes and projects. To this effect, the Ministry of National Development
Planning (MoNDP) was created and separated from the Ministry of Finance setup and given
the mandate coordinate among others; the setting up of the national vision, goals and
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development priorities, stimulation of consensus among various stakeholders, formulation of
medium term development plans to promote integrated development at national, sectoral and
regional levels and the identification, design and appraisal of public investments to facilitate
attainment of the country’s development aspirations (MoNDP, Re - Organization Report,
2016).
To execute the above mandates, the Ministry’s institutional framework was also
provided. Among the key departments in the planning processes that were set up were the
Development Planning Department (DPD) and Public Investment Planning Department
(PIPD).
The DPD was designated the central role for managing and coordinating the
formulation and implementation of national development policies, strategies and programmes
so as to guide the country’s socio-economic development process while the PIPD was
mandated with the responsibility of providing oversight in the planning, designing and
appraisal of national public investment programmes so as to facilitate development and
effective implementation of programmes and projects.
To enhance synergies at district, provincial and national levels, planning and budget
coordinating structures were equally integrated. At the time of the assessment, this strategy was
well advanced in that all provinces had functional Planning Units in place as part of the
objective. The pivotal role of the Planning Units was to enhance the planning, monitoring and
coordination of all development programmes at provincial and district levels. This was more
on the strategy to localize planning in sectors and provinces so as to enhance the ‘bottom-up’
approach and participatory planning in the development planning processes in Zambia
(Development Planning Report, 2015).
The strategy to legally establish planning and budget coordinating structures at district,
provincial and national levels was assessed to be well advanced and very much embedded in
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the draft National Planning and budgeting legislation. These structures pertained to the already
existing structures in the form of National Development Coordinating Committee (NDCC),
Provincial Development Coordinating Committee (PDCC) and District Development
Coordinating Committee (DDCC) structures.
The NDCC is designed as the national forum for coordinating the planning,
implementation and monitoring of development programmes and projects with the mandate to
oversee the operation of the National Development Planning framework as envisaged in the
National Planning and Budgeting legislation. In the development planning processes, the
NDCC has the mandate to perform the function of approving and issuing guidelines and
subsequent revisions thereof, for the formulation of long and medium term national
development plans, and the medium term and annual budgets.
As for the PDCC, its mandate is to coordinate and monitor the formulation,
implementation, monitoring and evaluation of Provincial Development Plans (PDP), and the
medium term and annual budgets and also to harmonize the long and medium-term
development plans and medium term and annual budgets inclusive of the Provincial Public
Investment Plans (PPIPs). This would similarly apply to the DDCC though very much
functional at the district level.
To provide operational legality, respective roles and responsibilities of key stakeholder
institutions are clearly outlined in the draft legislation. Annex 2 presents an illustration of the
institutional and consultative framework for development planning.
Objective Three: Facilitate Participatory/ Decentralized Development Planning
and Budgeting Processes
This objective has its strategies linked to those envisaged in the Decentralization policy
initiated by Government in 2002. These strategies are anchored on the objective in the
decentralization policy that is strategically focused on the empowerment of the local
communities through devolution of functions from the centralized structure to that of
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decentralized levels and matched with resources to enable efficiency and effective delivery of
services (National Decentralization Policy, 2007). To fulfill the objective, issues of
accountability and transparency in the management and utilization of resources at district levels
are found to be of utmost importance.
The capacity development strategy at the local councils and communities’ levels will
focus on enhancing development planning, financing, coordination and the management of
service delivery. The aim is to enable councils to effectively carry out the development function
at the local level. The introduction of an integrated budgeting system specifically for district
development and financial management is one key strategy of the objective (Decentralization
Implementation Plan, 2009)
On the strategy to facilitate participatory/ decentralized development planning and
budgeting processes, this lays on strengthening the existing structures for state and non-state
actor participation in planning and budgeting processes. Within the precepts of the NPBP,
respective roles and responsibilities of other key stakeholders such Cabinet, Parliament,
Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance, Ministries, Provinces and Other Spending Agencies and
Non-State Actors are clearly distinguished.
Cabinet, for instance, is mandated with the responsibility to provide policy direction
and approval of Policies, Plans and Budgets. As for Parliament, the main responsibility is to
provide the oversight functions to the policy implementation process. On the other hand,
Cabinet Office is tasked with the responsibility of providing overall policy guidance and
monitoring implementation of the policy.
Prior to the formation of the Ministry of National Development Planning (MoNDP),
Ministry of Finance (MoF) initially was tasked with the responsibility to facilitate and manage
the NPBP. In addition, MoF was tasked to provide policy direction to MPSAs on the
implementation of the policy as well as its implementation. It also had the mandate to
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coordinate the national vision, goals and development priorities and stimulate consensus
among various stakeholders. In the new dispensation with the creation of the separate Ministry
responsible for national development planning, the MoF mandate is more on the financing
development programmes as provided in the development plans as those functions of
development planning are more embedded in the mandates of the MoNDP.
On the other hand, Sector MPSAs are tasked with the mandate to prepare and
implement sector specific plans and budgets in line with the policy. The role of Non- state
actors is defined as that of providing complementarities to the implementation, monitoring and
evaluation of the NDP programmes (NPBP, 2013).
Objective Four: Enhance Budget Credibility
This objective is as embedded in the Constitution of Zambia under article 118 earlier
cited. The strategy lays on ensuring that national development plans inform the budgeting
process. This strategy is anchored on the MTEF whose green paper provides an overall medium
macro/fiscal resource framework and expenditure policies. This is one of the positive
developments in the process.
With regard to strengthening capacity to undertake ex-ante appraisal of capital projects
before being included in the plans and being allocated resources in the annual budget, this
strategy is encompassed in the PIPAM Framework. The framework is clear on the appropriate
linking of the process of appraising and selecting projects to the budget cycle regardless as to
whether the project evaluation cycle run on a different timetable (PIPAM, 2016)
The strategy to strengthen inter and intra institutional arrangements for linking planning
and budgeting at all levels is reinforced by the creation the Ministry of National Development
Planning to coordinate the national vision, goals and development priorities and stimulate
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consensus among various stakeholders and in liaison with the Ministry of Finance on the
budgeting matters at all levels.
With the strategy to build capacity (both human and institutional) in various
development institutions, this is being pursued vigorously and on-going. So far about 30 key
staff in various MPSAs had been trained in project planning and appraisal techniques and these
were to act as trainers of trainees as part of the internal capacity building strategy.
Objective Five: Facilitate Greater Evidence - Based Decision Making in
Development Planning and Budgeting
This objective is anchored on the enhancement of the effective use of
information/statistics in the planning and budgeting decision-making strategies. Further, this
includes the integration of results from planning and budget reviews and evaluation processes
into the preparation of MTEF and annual budget and subsequent development plans at all levels
of Government (NPBP, 2014)
The strategy to enhance the effective use of information/statistics in planning and
budgeting decision making is underpinned in the PFMRS and the Concept Paper on the
National Integrated Management Information System (NIMIS Project) 2013 – 2018. In the
PEMRS, it is informed that an appropriate M&E system would enable evidence-based planning
and decision-making in the use of public finances. The Concept Paper on the other hand,
underscores the need for a coordinated outcome and results-based approach to development
(Concept Paper, 2013).
The development of the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) is
another tangible progress in the development planning process. The NSDS, which is a five-
year plan (2014-2018), seeks to remedy the foregoing by coordinating and harmonizing the
production and dissemination of official statistics in the country. It provides for, inter alia, the
framework for partnership amongst producers, users’ and suppliers of statistics; and it
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envisions where producers and users of statistics should be in five years’ time by clearly
spelling out the Roadmap and Milestones (NSDS, 2014)
Regarding the strategy to integrate results from planning and budget reviews and
evaluation processes into the preparation of MTEF and annual budget and subsequent
development plans at all levels of Government, this is premised on the development of the
Government Wide - M&E – MIS. The pursuit for a Government Wide - M&E - MIS is a
response to Government’s need to track implementation progress towards realizing the
objectives of Vision 2030 and subsequent NDPs.
5.0 Seventh National Development Plan (2017-2021):
Formulation Processes and Implementation Frameworks
In the process, many developing countries globally have since developed or are
developing long term visions to guide their steps towards these development objectives. These
long-term visions are characterized by stronger ownership and a more consultative and
participatory process involving a broad spectrum of stakeholders, including civil society, the
private sector, and development partners (UNECA, 2016).
The first test of the NPBP with regard to development planning in Zambia was in the
preparation of the Seventh National Development Plan (7th NDP), 2017 -2021. Formulation of
the 7th NDP followed the key stages of development planning as outlined in the NPBP. The
formulation processes for the 7th NDP followed an appropriate mix of top-down and bottom-
up approaches. The process was anchored on the principles of participatory, credibility,
sustainability and responsiveness to development issues affecting the nation (7th NDP Concept
Note. 2016).
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The 7th NPD development planning process departed from the sectoral-based planning
to an integrated (multi-sectoral) approach. It was anchored on the theme “Accelerating
development efforts towards Vision 2030 without leaving anyone behind”. The goal of the 7th
NDP in line with the theme emphasize on the creation of a diversified and resilient economy
for sustained growth and socio-economic transformation driven, among others, by agriculture.
The formulation process of the 7th NDP was guided by the National Planning and
Budgeting Policy of 2014, while the Decentralization Policy of 2014 provided the principles
of implementation” (7th NDP, 2017). The formulation process was further informed by the need
to harness the demographic dividend15 in view of Zambia’s youthful population (7th NDP,
2017).
The realization of the 7th NDP goal is premised on a number of developmental
outcomes. The key outcomes include economic diversification and job creation; reduction of
poverty and vulnerability; reduced developmental inequalities; enhanced human development;
and the creation of enabling environment for a diversified and inclusive economy (7th NDP,
2017).
The perception is that the 7th NDP will bring about “inclusive development without
leaving anyone behind”16 and achieving more with fewer resources, through integration and
coordination of developmental efforts. These are to be achieved by taking into account regional
and global development agendas, such as the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan
15 The demographic dividend refers to the economic benefit a society enjoys when fertility and mortality decline
rapidly and the ratio of working-age adults significantly increases relative to young dependents.
16 This was one of goals of the UN post-2015 development agenda meant to drive transformation shifts to move
from reducing to ending extreme poverty, in all its forms globally by ensuring that no person – regardless of
ethnicity, gender, geography, disability, race or other status – is denied basic economic opportunities and human
rights.
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(RISDP),17 African Union Agenda 2063, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) protocols.
5.1 Conceptual Framework of the 7th NDP
The 7th NDP is premised on the Theory of Change which is a model that articulates, in
a systematic way, how strategies, activities or programmes contribute to a set of specific
outcomes through a series of intermediate results. It describes the pathway through which
change will come about. In the context of the 7th NDP, this shows how the economy is going
to be diversified; what results will be needed to attain diversification; and what interventions
will bring about these results. It also describes the underlying assumptions and conditions
necessary to bring about this change (7th NDP, 2017)
Within the scope of the 7th NDP, the ToC model has been elaborated in greater detail
in the NPF with a view to translate the Vision 2030 into strategic objectives and long-term
outcomes through various pathways. The 7th NDP thus draws from the long-term outcomes
outlined in the NPF which form the basis on which medium-term outcomes of the Plan are
anchored. The ToC also provides a clear framework for stakeholder consultation.
Building on the ToC and recognizing the multi-faceted and interlinked nature of
sustainable development, the interventions in the 7th NDP are to be tackled simultaneously
through an integrated multi-sectoral development approach to planning. The approach takes
recognition of the fact that the world is a complex system; it is linked through trading,
investment and transport and communications systems to events in other parts of the world.
This approach is supported by the recommendations of the 2015 Study on “Harnessing
Demographic Dividend: The future we want for Zambia”. In this view, the approach, therefore,
requires timely, strategic, targeted and simultaneous investments in various sectors of the
17 The RISDP is a comprehensive development and implementation framework guiding the regional integration
agenda of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) over a period of fifteen years (2015-2020)
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economy through integrated efforts that will translate policies into equitable, cost-effective
interventions that leave no one behind (7th NDP).
Using an integrated approach, the 7th NDP is expected to create an environment for the
domestication of Sustainable Development Goals, AU Agenda 2063, RISDP and other
international, regional, multilateral and bilateral development strategies. It is further
anticipated that by taking this approach for 7th NDP, this will be a springboard to the promotion
of partnerships in a transformative way (7th NDP).
5.2 Formulation Process of the 7th NDP
The formulation process started in 2015 - two years prior to the end of the preceding
NDP. This was in line with the formulation process that stipulated the timeline in which the
process was to commence, that is, two years prior to the expiry of the existing plan. All the
stages/ processes undertaken in the formulation process of the 7th NDP graphically depicted in
Annex 4.
Stage One – Issuance of National Policy Statement
The first action in the formulation process was the issuance of national policy statement
on development by Cabinet. The policy statement provided policy direction and strategic focus
on the development of the 7th NDP. As a matter of procedure, the Concept Note, Roadmap and
Organizational Framework had to be prepared and subsequently approved by Cabinet before
full commencement of the process.
Stage Two – Review of National Development Policies
In the second stage, reviews of national development policies and programme
(including situation analysis and recommendations from M&E processes) were conducted. The
reviews considered the NDP progress reports, Evaluation reports, Demographic Dividend
Report among others and the outcome culminated into the Issues paper.
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Stage Three – Public Consultations
Following the approval of the issues paper, concept note, roadmap and organization
framework by Cabinet, the 7th NDP formulation process was officially flagged off by the Vice
President. The immediate activities after the flagging off were public consultations which were
undertaken concurrently with the formulation of macro-economic and fiscal frameworks. The
key stakeholders consulted included economic and social sectors, provinces, districts, private
sector, interest groups, civil society and political parties.
Consultations were supposed to have been based on communication strategies designed
for the purpose. However, this was not the case because consultations were observed to have
been done in an Ad Hoc manner with the concept note being used as the consultation document.
There were also key challenges in the consultation process that mainly bordered on
meeting the technical capabilities of the teams and inadequate resources to undertake
consultations as planned. As for resources, it is contended that “where there are inadequate
resources in the implementation process, there is prone to be implementation problems”
(Makinde, 2005). In this view, resources may include both human and material. These may
pertain to the adequacy and skillfulness of personnel mandated with the execution of the
activities and the relevance and adequacy of information in the implementation process. This
was mostly noticeable in the formulation process of the 7th NDP. This situation greatly affected
the process and thus created an ‘Implementation Gap’18 in the process. With regard to the 7th
NDP, the gap, in some instances, resulted into activities been undertaken way beyond the
timelines.
18 The implementation gap arises when there is a sizeable gap between a policy decision and its implementation.
It is this gap that most often results in the policy implementation being delayed or to its eventual failure.
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Stage Four – Developing the Plan Zero Draft
Notwithstanding the challenges above, the drafting of the plan eventually commenced
in 2016 and this ultimately led to the production of a zero draft for the plan with
focus/strategies, priority programmes defined. The plan zero draft took into account issues
from the consultative process. Programme briefs and costing were also developed, while
Districts and Provinces also articulated their contextualized plans. Regarding the preparation
of the development plan focus/ strategy, a shift from sectoral approach to Integrated or multi-
sectoral with a regional perspective was advocated.
The multi-sectoral approach was advocated for the 7th NDP. This was under the
perception that sectoral approach had failed to promote horizontal and vertical integration in
formulation and management of NDPs. The perception was that sectoral approach resulted in
wastage of resources by thinly spreading them across sectors. There were also the issues of
limited or no linkages between sectors to support common objective. This promoted policy
inconsistencies as various policies were viewed from sector standpoint rather than holistically.
This made planning difficult as sector programmes/projects were not coordinated but was
presented only in a form of a “shopping list” (Gumboh, 2016)
The multi-sectoral approach, on the other hand, was provided the opportunity to
enhance the promotion of local participation in development planning process. This however
provided for paradigm shift in development management through structural changes in design,
targeting, and implementation of programmes and reduction in the mismatch between
economic growth numbers and poverty levels (7th NDP Concept note, 2016). The approach
required priority areas of focus to be based on regional comparative advantages so as to
promote economic diversification and reduce regional development imbalances.
In the multi-sectoral approach process, certain pre-conditions had to be met to fulfill
the objective. These bordered on the accelerated implementation of key reforms on land,
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financial management, institutional reforms, e-Government, planning and budgeting, private
sector development, National Statistics Development Strategy, re-organization of consultative
bodies, full decentralization (fiscal and devolution), stronger political support and
communication strategy, and incorporation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into
the 7th NDP. These were perceived as key elements for successful implementation of the 7th
NDP under the integrated approach. At the time of the assessment, most of these reforms were
work in progress with significant strides made on most of the pre-conditions.
Another key component identified in the development planning processes was that of
Development Cooperation. This implied the engagement of Cooperating Partners in the process
by taking into consideration their contribution to development programmes of the country
through financing and technical assistance in the form of loans and grants (Lupunga &
Kayekesi, 2015).
The rationale for development cooperation was anchored within the context of Vision
2030 which articulates the nation’s long-term development path and objectives. In the
formulation process of a Development Plan, identification of the overall resources is a core
prerequisite for successful plan implementation. This entails costing a plan and coming up with
resource mobilization strategies for its financing.
Unlike processes for the Fifth and Sixth National Development Plans that took a
sectoral approach, the change to integrated development approach for the 7thNDP required re-
alignment of development cooperation to conform to the new approach. Changes were
expected in the structure of development cooperation in areas of policies, procedures and
practices that provide for internal government engagement and engagement with cooperating
partners and the existing Aid Policy and Strategy (Lupunga and Kayekesi, 2015).
Page 52
Stage Five – Programme and Project Appraisal
The development of the Public Investment Planning, Appraisal and Management
Framework in 2015 was one of the key aspects under the integrated planning and budgeting
component in the NPBP. Its eventual review in 2016 to the Public Investment Planning,
Appraisal and Management (PIPAM) Framework, incorporating guidelines and procedures,
not only provided a catalyst in the preparation process of the 7thNDP but a mechanism for
efficiency and effective Public Investment Management (PIM) in Zambia (Gumboh, 2016).
The framework, whereas advocating for robust institutional procedural approach to
public investment planning, appraisal and management, also placed strong emphasis on
creating opportunities for capacity building within the key infrastructure-linked institutions so
as to build the internal skills and understanding of the processes and procedures for effective
implementation of public investment. To this effect capacity building sessions on the PIPAM
for key technical persons were held as a strategy to enhance their capabilities to comprehend
public investment planning, appraisals and management techniques as part of the development
planning process (PIM Concept Note, 2015)
Stage Six – Alignment of District / Provincial Indicators to NDP Indicators
This stage mainly enhanced further stakeholder consultations on the plan structure and
strategic focus. It is the stage where provincial programmes and district indicators are re-
aligned to NDP indicators prior to being incorporated into the draft NDP.
Stage Seven – Draft Plan (With various Options)
Technically, the validation and technical finalization of the draft plan was supposed to
have been undertaken in the 2016 but this was not possible due to internal challenges. This
further delayed the transmission of the Draft NDP (with various lay out options) to Cabinet
approval. The result of the delay created another Implementation Gap in the process.
Page 53
Stage Eight – Draft NDP/Green Paper
Initial intention was to have the Draft plan and the Green Paper tabled before Cabinet
at the entry of 2017. A lot of internal challenges made the intention not to materialize. The
challenges were mainly on technical, financial and political aspects. The delay to approval of
the Plan prior to the start of the plan period created a further gap in implementation process.
Its eventual tabling and approval by Cabinet paved the way for its launch.
Stage Nine – NDP Launch
In line with the development stages specified in the NPBP, the Plan was finally
launched by the President on 21st June 2017. As per requirement, the Final plan will have to be
submitted to the National Assembly as part of the documentation to be used to support the first
budget fully prepared by the administration.
Attainment of the development outcomes contained in the Plan requires having in place
a robust coordination framework to provide guidance in the implementation of the Plan. In
addition, institutional arrangements need to be clarified together with assumptions upon which
the success of the Plan rests. Implementation and coordination of the Plan will equally be based
on the integrated approach with a view to ensure that sectors are not only well coordinated but
are mutually reinforcing each other in the process. The coordination and implementation
approach link the vision, priorities, people’s aspirations and the physical institutions. Through
an elaborate implementation and coordination framework, a system for accounting for
development results will be established to help in informed decision-making. This will shape
and guide the entire management of the 7th NDP involving the state and its institutions and
individual players in organizations or communities.
5.3 Implementation Framework of the 7th NDP
The 7th NDP will be implemented largely through the same institutional arrangements
as for the previous NDPs with the PDCCs and DDCCs continuing to perform their functions
Page 54
as earlier stated under the formulation process. There is only the inclusion of the Ward
Development Committees (WDCs) at the local level, while at sector level, Sector Advisory
Groups (SAGs) have been re-aligned to Cluster Advisory Groups (CAGs), which shall be an
assembly of sectors sharing common overall objectives. At the central level, the Cabinet
through the National Development Coordinating Committee (NDCC) will continue playing an
oversight role.
In addition to grouping advisory bodies (CAGs, PDCCs, and DDCCs) based on
development outcomes, institutions jointly addressing a particular development outcome will
come up with one integrated implementation plan. The Institutions are further expected to
elaborate inter- and intra-sectoral synergies that will result in complementary efforts towards
the implementation of various strategies under that development outcome. The relationships
among a host of institutions are to be clearly mapped and developed in a manner that promotes
reinforcement of outcomes by all the players.
In order to realize the aspirations of this Plan, the Government as part of the
implementation strategy will formulate a change management strategy to include change
management programmes aimed at bringing about mind-set change among all stakeholders,
including the general public. This is to involve packaging the integrated approach to planning
and implementing the 7th NDP and communicating the approach to stakeholders. Additionally,
relevant personnel are to be mobilized to work effectively with the coordinating entity, in an
effort to optimize technical benefits from the pool of knowledge and expertise available across
the Government to enrich the planning process.
5.4 Opportunities and Challenges
In the analysis for key objectives of the 7th NDP, there are number of opportunities that
the country can enhance its development planning processes in its effort to meet its national
aspirations.
Page 55
In the overall assessment of planning, budgeting and monitoring systems, challenges
and problems were identified which were detrimental to PFM efforts, budget credibility and
development results. These challenges were attributed to weak links between policy cycle and
financial cycle as a result of non-alignment of the budget planning, programming and
expenditure with NDPs and the Vision 2030. The assessment further revealed that in terms of
budget planning, the current set up of budget planning was not linked to any NPF.
There is therefore the opportunity to enhance the development of the NPF based on the
national strategic objectives that are defined from the national long-term Vision 2030. The
essence of the NPF is that it operationalizes the national long-term vision, by re-packaging long
term strategic objectives into the medium term. This is done by logically identifying and
interpreting the strategic objectives contained in the national long-term vision. In the absence
of the NPF, it is difficult to quantify and link outcomes and impact to Vision 2030. Even more
challenging is the difficulty to track implementation progress towards realizing objectives in
the Vision 2030. The development of the NPF is therefore expected to enhance policy cycle
and strategic vision through the establishment of a strong linkage between defined national
outcomes and key performance indicators in the NPF with NDP and the Vision 2030.
With regard to budget credibility, there is an opportunity to develop sector specific
performance frameworks (SPF) that will further enhance and improve alignment with the
MTEF, NDP and Vision 2030. What is of importance is the need for the government to fully
support the sectors to establish annual M&E plans based on SPF as this would contribute
towards systematic M&E of each sector strategic goals, objectives, programmes and projects.
The development of the annual M&E plans would help MPSAs to move away from activity-
based implementation and reporting to performance-based budget allocation, implementation
and tracking progress.
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There is also the opportunity for Government to consider Results Based Budgeting by
re-engineering the legacy systems so as to create the linkages between the policy and financial
cycle as well as planning and implementation which are fully aligned with NDP and Vision
2030.
There is greater opportunity for introducing evidence-based policy making19 approach
in the national development planning process in Zambia as this approach will further enhance
the identification of what would work by highlighting gaps where evidence of programme
effectiveness is lacking. This will enable policymakers to use evidence in making their
development and budget decisions.
Based on the fact that evidence-driven policy making relies much on systems to monitor
implementation and measure key outcomes, this will equally provide an opportunity for
government to enhance the development of a national M&E policy framework that would spell
out the M&E best practices, principles, processes, standards and procedures. These would be
underpinned by an implementation plan, M&E guidelines, manuals and tools for use or
adaption across government.
In order to enhance the process, there is opportunity for government to conduct capacity
development, training and sensitization across the sectors to institutionalize or embed adequate
utilization of M&E tools for Results Based Monitoring of the implementation process. What is
of importance is the need for the government to fully support the sectors to establish annual
M&E plans based on SPF as this would contribute towards systematic M&E of each sector
strategic goals, objectives, programmes and projects. The development of the annual M&E
plans would help MPSAs to move away from activity-based implementation and reporting to
performance-based budget allocation, implementation and tracking progress.
19 Evidence-based policymaking is a term often applied in multiple fields of public policy to refer to situations
whereby policy decisions are informed by rigorously established objective evidence.
Page 57
With regard to the “soft factors20” of monitoring and evaluation, there is an opportunity
for government to identify and appoint M&E-MIS champions every sector by instituting
change process and promotion of the paradigm shift from viewing M&E functions as policing
to being an important management tool geared towards promoting change and realizing
institutional and national goals and objectives.
Annex 5 provides the framework for evidence-based policy making in development
planning. The framework presents the five steps in Evidence –Based Policymaking based on
the Pew-MacArthur Results First Initiative. The framework suits well for governments to
follow to build and support a system of evidence –based policy making.
Regarding gender mainstreaming in the development planning processes, there are
opportunities for government to first assess the expected positive or negative impacts of gender
sensitive planning and budgeting, notwithstanding the possible impacts of such an initiative
before developing a framework for such purpose. Some of the possible impacts of gender
mainstreaming could include enhanced accountability of government to women’s rights,
increased transparency in planning and budgeting, enhanced participation and social control
over budget processes, policy effectiveness, cost-efficiency in programme implementation,
enhanced women’s empowerment and qualified participation in macroeconomic policy
debates. In addition to the envisaged positive impact, vis-a-vis, the enhancement of gender
mainstreaming, it would be important for government to undertake an assessment of the impact
of gender sensitive budgeting on the planning and budgeting process itself, including the legal
and institutional framework for budget and planning. Furthermore, it would be important to
20 Soft factors of Monitoring and Evaluation referred to psychological and latent elements (such as staff morale,
skills development and career progressions, motivation, commitment, respect for M&E leadership etc.) which
were observed to be generally lacking across the sectors though there were necessary factors for effective
functioning and implementation of M&E-MIS.
Page 58
indicate how the envisaged negative impact would be overcome or mitigated as envisaged in
the National Gender Policy of 2013.
With this paradigm shift in the development planning processes, there is also the
opportunity for the government to enhance good governance and a stable political environment
as these are necessary for sustainable development in that they promote an enabling business
environment, increased market confidence and attract foreign direct investment among others.
What is critical is for the Government to continue implementing policies that promote
transparency, accountability, citizen participation as well as strengthen governance institutions
as a stable political environment will give the country an opportunity to continue strengthening
its institutions to support growth and development and maximize the attainment of
development outcomes.
6.0 Conclusions and Recommendations
6.1 Key Issues
The study analyzed a number of key areas of development planning in Zambia. It
presented a chronological order of the status and progress made in enhancing development
planning processes with the view of providing opportunities for integrating accountability and
evidence-based policy making approaches in Zambia’s development planning processes.
Among the many issues identified in the report were those that bordered on strategic
formulation of macro-economic and fiscal frameworks and stakeholder consultations based on
communication strategies designed for the purpose. Also, there was the issue of the
development plan with a clear focus/ strategy to conform with the shift from sectoral approach
to Integrated or multi-sectoral meant to enhance the promotion of local participation in
development planning process. Another key issue identified in the development planning
processes was that of Development Cooperation. The development of the Public Investment
Page 59
Planning, Appraisal and Management Framework was also one of the key issues identified in
the development planning processes.
In terms of implementation strategy, the development of an integrated implementation
plan was one key issue identified. This pertained to the elaboration of inter- and intra-sectoral
synergies to complement efforts towards the implementation of various strategies under
development outcomes. The formulation of a change management strategy to include change
management programmes aims at bringing about mind-set change among all stakeholders,
including the general public was another key issue in the development processes.
With the planning and budgeting policy in place, the guidance provided makes it key
to the achievement of the Vision 2030 in that it specifically defines national measurement
framework to track implementation progress of the Vision 2030 for each sector by considering
the key result areas, key performance indicators and baseline and target values. Its enactment
into the National Planning and Budgeting legislation is anticipated to greatly enhance decision
making and efficiency in the development planning process.
6.2 Lessons Learnt
In the overall assessment of planning, budgeting and monitoring systems, lessons learnt
bordered on the challenges and problems detrimental to PFM efforts, budget credibility and
development results. In the Zambian case, it was clear that the challenges identified attributed
to weak links between policy cycle and financial cycle. This was due to failure to align the
budget planning, programming and expenditure with NDPs and the Vision 2030. This was
compounded further by the non-linkage of the of budget planning to the NPF. In the absence
of the NPF, it was learnt that quantifying and linking outcomes and impact to Vision 2030
could be difficult.
In the context, development of the NPF would therefore operationalize the national
long-term vision, by re-packaging long term strategic objectives into the medium term. This
Page 60
would be done by logically identifying and interpreting the strategic objectives contained in
the national long-term vision. In terms of tracking implementation progress towards realizing
objectives in the Vision 2030, the NPF would enhance policy cycle and strategic vision through
the establishment of a strong linkage between defined national outcomes and key performance
indicators in the NPF with NDP and the Vision 2030.
With regard to budget credibility, it was learnt that the development of sector specific
performance frameworks (SPF) would further enhance and improve the alignment of the NPF
with the MTEF, NDP and Vision 2030. This would be achieved by sectors establishing annual
M&E plans based on SPF. This would enhance the systematic M&E of each sector strategic
goals, objectives, programmes and projects.
It was further learnt that by re-engineering the legacy systems into Results Based
Budgeting, this would create linkages between the policy and financial cycle as well as
planning and implementation as aligned to the NDP and Vision 2030. The introduction of
evidence-based policy making approach in the national development planning process would
further enhance the identification of gaps where evidence of programme effectiveness is
lacking. With this strategy, policymakers would be enabled to use evidence in making
development and budget decisions.
With the understanding that evidence-driven policy making relies much on systems to
monitor implementation and measure key outcomes, this would enhance the development of a
national M&E policy framework that would spell out the M&E best practices, principles,
processes, standards and procedures. The underpinning factor would be the development of an
implementation plan, M&E guidelines, manuals and tools for use or adaption across
government.
6.3 Follow-up Actions and Recommendations
Page 61
In order to enhance accountability and evidence- based policy making in development
planning processes, it is therefore recommended that the development of the NPF be
heightened as this is expected to enhance policy cycle and strategic vision through
establishment of strong linkage between defined National Outcomes and Key Performance
Indicators in the NPF with those in NDP and the Vision 2030. Equally, the development of
Sector Performance Frameworks (SPF) should be heightened to improve the alignment of the
MTEF with the NDP and the Vision 2030.
In the understanding that M&E system is a key aspect to the provision of information
required for evidence-based development planning; transparent and accountable budgeting and
programme execution in the future, it is thus recommended that the National M&E Policy and
Master Plan be developed to guide implementation across Government levels, agencies and
sectors. There is also the need to support sectors to establish annual M&E Plans based on the
SPF. This would contribute to systematic M&E of every sector’s strategic goals, objectives,
programmes and projects. The annual M&E Plans would act as a catalyst to MPSAs to
proactively move away from activity-based implementation and reporting to performance-
based budget allocation, implementation and tracking of progress. The development of a
National M&E Policy framework is crucial in spelling out the best practices, principles,
processes, standards and procedures. This should be underpinned by an Implementation Plan,
M&E Guidelines / Manual and Tools for use or adaption across government.
It is crucial to ensure that resource mobilization, expenditure prudence, and donor
support coordination should be prioritized in all sectors to minimize and eliminate wasteful
duplication of investments and activities. This would be linked to the integrated approach as
envisaged for the 7th NDP.
It should be recommended that a strategy be developed to strengthen enhancement of
capacity (both human and institutional) across Government levels, agencies and sectors. This
Page 62
can be achieved by putting in place the necessary communication and motivational strategies,
incentives and rewards for best performing sectors as a mechanism to encourage and support
real change. Sectors should be able to identify and promote development champions to support
institutionalization of the necessary culture and desired mindset in their institutions. It is further
recommended that a comprehensive change management process be put in place by the change
champions, that is, institutions mandated to carry out such tasks on behalf of government such
as Cabinet Office, Public Service Management Division etc. In the context of the change
management process, two aspects need to be addressed namely communication and objectivity,
as key variables in the change management required.
The belief is that with the adoption of evidence-based policy making approach in the
development planning processes, this will reduce wasteful spending by identifying and
eliminating ineffective programmes. By implication, this would enable freeing up of budgets
for the expansion of innovative programmes as well as strengthening accountability in the
collection and reporting data on programmes operations and outcomes.
Page 63
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Annex 1: Types of Plans, Timelines and Purpose
Level Plan Timeline Purpose
National /Sector National Vision 25-year
plan
Defining the long term national policy pronouncements
Outlining the long term national aspirations and goals
Defining long term national scenarios
Guiding long term and medium term sectoral planning
processes
Guiding the IDPs formulation processes
National
Development Plan
5-year
plan
Operationalizing the long-term vision
Providing medium term policy framework
Guiding sectoral planning processes
Guiding provincial and district planning processes
Sector Investment
Plans
10 to 20-
year plans
Operationalize the national vision
Outline long term sectoral investment programmes
Actualizing sector specific long-term targets
Sector plans 5-year
plans
Operationalize the national vision
Operationalizes the national development plan
Outline medium term sectoral development programmes
Actualizing sector specific medium targets
Provincial Provincial Growth
Development Plan
or
Provincial
Development Plan
5-year
plan
Identifying provincial potentials/
Comparative advantage
Enhancing multi-district initiatives
Aggregating / identification of programmes
District Integrated District
Plan
10-year
plan
Operationalize the national vision
Operationalize sector investment plans
Guiding district development plan processes
District Strategic
Development Plan
5-year
plan
Operationalize the IDP
Operationalize the NDP
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Actualize sector investment plans
Source: NPBP, 2014.
Annex 2: Institutional and Consultative Framework for Development Planning
Consultative Process Institutional Framework Output
National Vision
Ministry of National
Development Planning
National
Development
Coordinating
Committee
Five-Year National
Development Plan
Three-Year National
Development Implementation
Plan
Cabinet/
Cabinet
office
NDP
Policy
Guidance
Ministr
y of
Finance
MTEF and Annual
National Budget
Line Ministries
Planning Units
Sectoral
Development
Coordinating
Committee
Provincial Planning Units in
the office of the Permanent
Secretary Provincial
Administration
Provincial
Development
Coordinating
Committee
Institutional Strategic
Plans and
Implementation Plans
Page 68
Source: Author’s creation, 2017
Annex 3: National Performance Framework
District Planning Units in
the office of the District
Administration
District
Development
Coordinating
Committee
Page 69
Source: Ministry of National Development Planning 7th NDP Consultative Process Document,
2016
Annex 4: National Development Planning /Formulation Process
Year One - 2015
Year Three- 2017 Year Two - 2016
Evaluation Reports;
APRs; Government
Pronouncements
NDP Launched by
President and tabled
before National
Assembly for
implementation
Issues Paper & Concept Note,
Roadmap
Draft NDP/Green Paper tabled
before Cabinet
Commencement of Public
Consultations
Sectors, Provinces, Districts,
Private Sector, Interest
groups, Civil Society, Political
parties
Draft NDP with various lay out
options transmitted to Cabinet
Drafting of Zero Draft NDP
Taking into account issues
from Consultative process
Page 70
Source: 7th NDP Concept Note
Annex 5: The Five Steps in Evidence-Based Policymaking
Program assessment Systematically review available evidence on the effectiveness of public
programs.
Budget development (Planning) Incorporate evidence of program effectiveness into budget and policy decisions,
giving funding priority to those that deliver a high return on investment of public
funds.
Implementation oversight (Budget Execution) Ensure that programs are effectively delivered and are faithful to their
intended design.
Alignment of District /
Provincial Indictors to NDP
Indicators
Programme and Project
Appraisal
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Outcome monitoring Routinely measure and report outcome data to determine whether programs are
achieving desired results.
Targeted evaluation Conduct rigorous evaluations of new and untested programs to ensure that they
warrant continued funding.
Based upon the Pew-MacArthur Results First Initiative, who has developed a framework that
governments can follow to build and support a system of evidence-based policymaking.
Source: MoNDP, M&E Inception and Synthesis Report
