The World’s Largest Country: How Multinational Companies are Seizing its Opportunities

7/28/2019 The Worlds Largest Country: How Multinational Companies are Seizing its Opportunities

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GlobalStrategy

GlobalChallenges

Executable

Solut ions

Russia 2020: What Russia will Look Like in the FutureThe Worlds Largest Country: How Multinational Companies are Seizing its Opportunities

France Houdard

Managing [email protected]

Marc h 2011
http://www.exolus.com/


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1Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .

Why?

Preface: What Does Worlds Largest Country Look Like from Space?

Source: NASA (United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration)


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INTRODUCTION: Russia Structural Framework and Forward Trends . . .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Russia.svg


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80% Population in West East Largely Uninhabitable

Framework: Structural Determinants of Russias Economic Geography

People

17,075,400 km2 1/8thWorlds Land Area 10 time Zones

Russia Map

Permafrost& Plains


5/334Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .

Economy: Growth in Russias Economy

Economy Doubled in 7 Years (01 08) IMF Forecasts Rapid Growth to 2015

Source: IMF

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010f

2011f

2012f

2013f

2014f

2015f

Will hostOlympic games

USD

trillion

Russia GDP(USD trillion, PPP-adjusted))

Global Financial Crisis

2xActual

IMFForecast


6/335Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: ERSUSDA

Wealth: Russia to have Highest GDP per Capita among BRIC Countries

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

Russia Brazil China India

Russia GDP per Capita: USD 6,200 (2009) USD10,000 (2020)

2020

2009Russia GDP per Capita



Income: Russia leads BRICs in Per Capita Disposable Income

Per Capita Disposable Income Growing at Average 6% Per Annum

Source: GS Global ECS Research

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Russia

Brazil

China

India

Disposable Income Per Capita(USD per annum)



Resources: Worlds Leading Energy Superpower Oil and Gas

Worlds Largest (#1) Oil Producer Worlds Largest (#1) Gas Producer

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

12.9%

Russia

Saudi Arabia

USA

Iran

China

Canada

Mexico

Venezuela

Iraq

Kuwait

UAE

Norway

Other

World Oil Producers

(12.9% share, 2009)Worlds

Largest (#1) oil producer

2nd largest oil exporter

8th

largest oil reserves

OIL

23.7%

Russia

Iran

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Turkmenistan

USA

UAE

Venezuela

Nigeria

Algeria

Indonesia

Iraq

Other

World Gas Reserves(23.7% share, 2009)

Worlds

Largest (#1) gas producer

Leading (#1) natural gas exporter

Largest (#1) natural gas reserves

GAS



Resources: Worlds Leading Energy Superpower Mineral Fuels

Worlds 2ndLargest Coal Reserves 3rd Largest Uranium Reserves

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, British Geological Survey

10%

Australia

Kazakhstan

Russia

South Africa

Canada

USA

Brazil

Namibia

Niger

Ukraine

Jordan

Uzbekistan

Other

19%

USA

Russia

China

Australia

India

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

South AfricaOther

World Coal Reserves(19% share, 2009)

Worlds

5th coal producer

3rd coal exporter

2nd largest coal reserves

Worlds

4th uranium producer

3rd largest uranium reserves

World Uranium Reserves(10% share, 2008)

COAL

URANIUM


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Resources: Worlds Leading Mineral Industry Iron and Steel

Worlds Largest (#1) Iron Reserves 4th Largest Steel Producer

Source: U.S. Geological Survey

5.5%

China

Japan

USA

Russia

Korea

Germany

Ukraine

Brazil

Italy

France

UK

Other

IRON

Worlds

3rd pig iron producer

Largest (#1) iron reserves

Worlds

4th raw steel producer

4th raw steel exporter

RAW STEEL

18 %

Russia

Australia

Ukraine

Brazil

China

India

Kazakhstan

Venezuela

Sweden

USA

Iran

Canada

Other

World Iron Reserves(18% share, 2009)

World Raw Steel Production(5.5% share, 2009)


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Resources: Worlds Leading Mineral Industry Nickel, Copper

Worlds Largest (#1) Nickel Producer 7th Copper Producers

5%

Chile

Peru

USA

Indonesia

China

Australia

Russia

Zambia

Canada

Poland

Kazakhstan

Mexico

Other

Source: U.S. Geological Survey

19%

Russia

Indonesia

Australia

Canada

Philippines

New Caledonia

China

Colombia

Cuba

Brazil

South Africa

Botswana

Venezuela

Other

Worlds

Largest (#1) nickel producer

Largest (#1) nickel exporter

3rd nickel reserves

Worlds

7th copper producer

5th copper exporter

9th largest copper reserves

World Nickel Production

(19% share, 2009)

World Copper Production(4% share, 2009)

NICKEL

COPPER


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The Future: 1 of 5 Countries with Highest Combined - GDP, Population, Resources

> USD3 trillion GDP 100+ million people > 3 million sq km

Over3 million sq km

Over100 million People

Indonesia

RussiaBrazil

USIndiaChina

OverUS$3 trillion GDP (PPP)

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Nigeria

MexicoJapan

Ethiopia

Philippines

Germany

United Kingdom

France Italy

Canada

Australia


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Corporate Trends: Structural Optimization Markets, Resources, Innovation


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Corporate Burning Platforms: Markets, Resources, Innovation

Market Access/Revenue Growth Global Structural Cost Reduction

Resources

COST

R&D Sales

Service

Sourcing

Production/Assembly

Distribution

Engineering IT HR

F&A Procure

Knowledge Markets

DRIVINGShareholder Value

Markets /

Revenues

Resources/

Cost Reduction

Innovation/

Knowledge

Efficiency/

Shared Services

Efficiency


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Top Foreign Investment Destinations in Western Part of Russia

1. Production/Resources: Where are Leading Direct Investment Nodes?

Foreign Investment ConcentrationA-Cities Highest Population and FDI

S-Cities Mid-High Population and FDI

St. Petersburg

Moscow

Rostov

Krasnodar

Nizhny Novgorod

Kazan

Tolyatti Ufa Yekaterinburg

Omsk

Novosibirsk

Chelyabinsk

Source: Rosstat

Population(million)

CityCumulative FDI(1999 2009)

10.3 Moscow City USD 45.8 bn

6.6 Moscow Region USD 11.9 bn

4.7 St Petersburg USD 5.0 bn

1.7 Leningrad Region USD 2.8 bn

1.1 Omsk USD 3.6 bn

0.6 Krasnodar USD 3.3 bn

1.1 Chelyabinsk USD 2.6 bn

1.1 Kazan USD 1.7 bn

0.7 Tolyatti USD 1.1 bn

1.3 Yekaterinburg USD 1.1 bn

1.3 Nizhny Novgorod USD 0.9 bn

1.1 Rostov-on-Don USD 0.9 bn

1.4 Novosibirsk USD 0.6 bn

1.0 Ufa USD 0.5 bn


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Russia Already 5th Largest Consumer of Cars in Europe

1. Production/Resources: Car Production Proxy for Production Nodes?

Russia Automotive ProductionA-Cities

S-Cities

Yekaterinburg

Chelyabinsk

Kazan

Tolyatti Ufa

St. Petersburg

Moscow

Rostov

Krasnodar

Hyundai

Nissan

Ford

GM

Toyota

Volvo

Renault

ZIL

VW

Skoda

Peugeot

Citroen

Mitsubishi

KIA

BMW

FIAT

Sollers

Great Wall

ZMA

KIA

Lada

Tata Motors

Geely

IVECO

Isuzu

Chevrolet

GAZ

GM AVTOVAZ

LADA

Paz

Hyundai

Tata Motors

Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites


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1. Production/Resources: Moscow Region Immense, as Large as Countries

Moscow Region (45,900 km sq) larger than entire Switzerland (41,285 km sq)

Sources: Publically Available Information

Moscow Region(45,900 km sq)

Switzerland (Country)(41,285 km sq)

Moscow Region

Moscow City
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2a/Distrib_citta_svizzera.png


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1. Production/Resources: Management Sourced in Moscow City, Labor Local

Management-Labor Skill/Cost Drivers 70 100 km from Moscow City

Sources: Company Websites, All Publically Available Information

KlinskiyDmitrovskiy

Eqorevskiy

Orekhovo-

Zuevskiy

KolomenskiyStupinskiy

Ramenskiy

Mitishchinskiy

Balashikhinskiy

Ryzskiy

Istrinskiy

Odintsovskiy

Naro-Fominskiy

Chekhovskiy

Serpukhovskiy

Solnechnoaorskiy

Sergievo-

Posadskiy

Lenininskiy

Moscow

City

Moscow Region

(45,900 km sq)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Russia_Moscow_oblast_location_map.svg


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1. Production/Resources: Leningrad Region even Larger, Size of Hungary

Leningrad Region (84,500 km sq) roughly same size as Hungary (93,030 km)

Sources: Publically Available Information

Hungary (Country)(93,030 km sq)

Leningrad Region(84,500 km sq)

Leningrad Region

St Petersburg City


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1. Production/Resources: Management from St. Petersburg, Labor Local

Management-Labor Skill/Cost Drivers 30 60 km from St Petersburg City

Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites

Vsevolzhsky

KirovskiLomonosov

Tosnenski

Gatchina

Primorskiy

Krasnoselskaya

Pushkinsky

Koldinskiy

Viyborgskiy

Leningrad Region

(84,500 km sq)


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Per Capita GDP / A/S-City OverlayPer Capita GDP

(USD, PPP-Adjusted)

A-Cities

S-Cities

Chukotka

Sakha

Magadan

Kamchatka

Sakhalin

KhabarovskAmur

Primorsky

Irkutsk

Krasnoyarsk

Buryatia

Tuva

Tomsk

Komi

Arkhangelsk

Karelia

Murmansk

Arkhangelsk

Perm

Altai

Altai

Omsk

Tyumen

Vologda

Kirov

Volgograd

33

2

34

5

1

6

7

8 10

9

11

1214

Tver

1617

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

27

26

2829

30

32

3437 38

4041

42

43

44

45

Zabaykalsk46

Yamalia

Khantia-Mansia

15

31

RostovSverdlovsk36

39

Novosibirsk

35

Leningrad

2. Cost/Revenue: Where are Pareto-Optimal Market/Resource Envelopes?

Intersection of People (West) A/S Cities Natural Resources (East)

> 20,000

15,000 - 20,000

10,000- 15,000

5,000 - 10,000

0 - 5,000

1. Astrakhan2. Belgorod3. Bryansk4. Vladimir5. Voronezh6. Ivanovo

7. Kaliningrad8. Kaluga9. Kemerovo10. Kostroma11. Kurgan12. Kursk

13. Leningrad14. Lipetsk15. Moscow16. Oryol17. Ryazan18 Tambov

19. Tula20. Yaroslavl21. Novgorod22. Chelyabinsk23. Pskov24. Smolensk

25. Adygeya26. Ingushetia27. Karachay-Cherkessia28 Kabardino-Balkaria29 North Ossetia-Alania30. Chechnya

31. Krasnodar32. Stavropol33. Bashkortostan34. Udmurtia35. Samara36. Tatarstan

37. Penza38. Ulyanovsk39. Nizhny Novgorod40. Mari El41. Chuvashia42. Mordovia

43. Kalmykia44. Dagestan45. Khakassia46. Jewish AD

Source: UNDP, National Human Development Report in the Russian Federation 2010


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2. Market: Car Sales/Production Proxy for Directional Market Sizing?

Car Penetration Highest in Russia among the 4 BRIC Countries

Sources: Association of European Business; Autostat; Rosstat, GS Global ECS Research, Other

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

RussiaBrazilChinaIndia

Car Penetration in BRIC(units per 1,000 people) Car Penetration in Russia(units per 1,000 people)


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Russia to be USD30 billion Market (2015) 9th Largest in World

Pharmaceutical Market Size Country Ranking

(2000 2015f - USD billion)

Sources: IMS; GSK, Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets JMCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus

2. Market: Projected to be Worlds 10th Largest Pharma Market by 2015

2000

USA 150

Japan 58

Germany 17France 17

UK 11

Italy 11

China 6.8

Brazil 6.7

Canada 6.3

Spain 6.2

2005

USA 262

Japan 65

Germany 24France 21

UK 16

Italy 15

China 13

Brazil 10

Canada 10

Spain 9.8

2010

USA 441

Japan 75

Germany 48France 39

China 34

UK 32

Italy 28

Brazil 24

Canada 22

Spain 21

2015F Top 9

USA 524

China 103

Japan 85Germany 55

Brazil 47

France 44

UK 36

Italy 31

Russia 30

India 28


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2. Market: High Spending Growth Resumes through Global Financial Crisis

Sales Growing at 21% CAGR

USD

Million

100

200

300

400

500

600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Retail Sales Growth

Source: EIU


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3. Innovation: Modern Focus on Traditional Strength Science & Technology

Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites, i-gorod Website

Cisco

Boeing

Siemens

Microsoft

Nokia

Intel

Tata

Nokia Siemens

EADS

Alstom

Lukoil

Rosatom

Signed Partnerships

Industry Focus

Life Sciences

Renewable Energies

Aerospace

Information Technology

Telecommunications

Nuclear Technology

ABBYY

Novartis

Honeywell

DuPont

Google

Kodak

Schlumberger

Johnson & Johnson

IM-TECH

DOW Chemicals

John Deere

Under Negotiations

Skolkovo Innovation Center USD2 billion over Next 3 Years


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3. Innovation: Strong Science and Engineering Focus in Russian Education

Sources: OECD Science, Technology and Industry outlook, 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

China Korea Germany Russia Japan UK Italy USA Brazil

Science & Engineering as % of all Graduates: 25% in Russia 15% in US

Science and Engineering as Percentage of New DegreesEngineering Degrees

Science Degrees


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Russia Economic Outlook

S i E ti S l t R i T Gl b l I t t D ti ti


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Senior Executives Select Russia as a Top Global Investment Destination

Russia Top 5 Investment Destination in World

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

China

UnitedStates

India

Brazil

Russia

U.K.

Germany

Australia

Indonesia

Canada

Vietnam

Mexico

Poland

France

Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011

Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment

(2009 2011)%

PercentofRes

ponses

R i E i O tl k L F R P iti F d t l


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28Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved..

Russia Economic Outlook: Large Forex Reserves, Positive Fundamentals

Worlds 3rdLargest Forex Reserves Low External Debt Growing Banking System

Russia Holds The Worlds 3rd Largest Foreign Exchange Reserves: USD 485 billion

In 2011 the Central Bank has accumulated over USD 458 billion in foreign reserves, up from USD 12

billion in 1999.

The accumulation of large external surpluses means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.

Low External Debt/GDP Ratio and Positive Current Account Balance

Healthy external debt to GDP ratio at 21% of GDP in 2010.

Current account surplus at 5.1% of GDP in 2010; projected at 4.7% in 2011 and 4.2% in 2012.

Federal budget deficit at 3.9 % GDP in 2010; projected to decrease to 2% of GDP in 2011.

Russias Banking System under Rapid Expansion

Total assets projected to double between 2010 and 2015, from EUR 400 billion (2010) to EUR 800+billion (2015).

Between 2010 to 2015, total lending to grow at 14.2 % CAGR; corporate loans at 14.3%; retail loans

at 14.7% and mortgages at 15.5%.

Source: IMF; World Bank; Sberbank; UniCredit


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For a Comparative Perspective with the other BRIC Countries

Please Refer to the Following Research Reports

Found on Slideshare @

http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries

http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/india-2020-what-india-will-look-like-in-the-future

http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future

Download Reports @

www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html

China 2020 Brazil 2020India 2020
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Global Expansion Strategy &Cross-Border Investment Execution

(Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures, Outsourcing)

About Exolus: Exolus is a hybrid management consulting and transaction advisory firm. We work withmanagement teams in the development of their global expansion strategies, across the range of investmentformats: Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures and Outsourcing. As well, we deploy against global strategies byproviding program management across all phases of cross-border investment projects, from candidate

searches and evaluation, through investment structuring and negotiations.

The founders of Exolushave spent the past two decades in the global service space and have directexperience operating in nearly all of the major investment destinations in the world (40+ countries). The teamhas served clients of all sizes, both public and private, on projects that ranged in investment size from USD10million to greater than USD1 billion. We have served clients across all of the following industry segments: LifeSciences, Manufacturing, Automotive, Technology, Retail, Consumer Business, Real Estate, Public Sector.

Follow Exolus at: www.exolus.com

Need Further Information: [email protected]

Want Copies of our Reports: www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html

Disclaimer
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Disclaimer

In writing we benefit from standing on the shoulders of others and, in the process, we strive to make our owncontributions to the market of ideas. As well, we are always tremendously grateful for the many, oftenselfless, contributions that are availed in the process.

The opinions represented herein were prepared for information purposes only, at the time of publication.The information represented herein is believed to be reliable, at the time of publication, and was obtained byvarious public sources also believed to be reliable. The opinions were considered to be accurate at thepoint of creation, and further, any views, forecasts, or estimates contained herein may be subject to changeat anytime without notice. The opinions expressed or implied herein may not be the opinions of the author,also Exolus, or any associated affiliates.

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herein that shall not be considered a substitute for obtaining advise from the readers advisors.

The author shall not accept responsibility, express or implied, with regards to the accuracy andcompleteness of the information herein, and the author shall not be liable whatsoever and howsoeverarising in connection to this publication. The author shall not accept, and hereby disclaim, all responsibilityand liability to all persons, entities, or organizations for all consequences arising out of any use or relianceon the whole or any part of this publication.This publication should not be reproduced or distributed without the authors consent and is not intended for

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Documents

The World’s Largest Country: How Multinational Companies are Seizing its Opportunities