The world's bioenergy potential in the context of global food and farming trends

The world's bioenergy potential in the context of global food and farming

trends

Fridolin Krausmann

Based on research by H. Haberl, K.H. Erb, C. Lauk, C. Plutzar, J. K. Steinberger, C. Müller, A. Bondeau

et.al.

Institute for Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria Universität

Potsdam Institut for Climate Impact Reasearch – PIK Potsdam

Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde08.12.2009

Project „Feeding and fuelling the world 2050“

• Goals:– Understanding the interrelations between diet patterns, agriculture,

bioenergy and climate change. (Deforestation was not considered!)– Exploring the possibilities to meet global food demand in 2050 under

different assumptions on• Dietary patterns• Expansion of cropland• Changes in land use intensity/agricultural yields• Changes in intensity and efficiency of livestock production systems• Climate change

– Quantification of bioenergy potentials in 2050

• We acknowledge the funding of this research by: FWF – Austrian Science Fund, Compassion in World Farming, Friends of the Earth, UK


Eleven World Regions


Socio-ecological Characteristica of Worldregions


Biomass use (per capita) 2000

-

50

100

150

200

250N

. Afr

ica

& W

.A

sia

Sub

-Sah

aran

Afr

ica

Cen

tral

Asi

a &

GU

S

Eas

tern

Asi

a

Sou

ther

n A

sia

Sou

th-E

aste

rnA

sia

Nor

ther

nA

mer

ica

Latin

Am

eric

a

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Oce

ania

[GJ/

cap

]

Export

Industrial Wood

Fuelwood (max)

Other use

Grazing incl residues andfodderMarket feed

Food(processing)

Seed


Solid empirical database for 2000: Three consistent datasets

• Land use: Consistency between pixels (5 min, 10x10 km) and statistical data at country level (cropland and woodlands according to FAO, FRA und TBFRA). Erb et al. 2007. J. Land Use Sci. 2, 191-224

• Biomass balances at country level: Production and consumption of biomass by type (ca. 160 countries): Feed balances, processing losses, trade, trends 1960-2000.Krausmann et al. 2008. Ecol. Econ. 65, 471-487.

• HANPP: Global human appropriation of NPP, potential and actual NPP und Biomass harvest (5 min, 10x10 km) based on land use data set, FAO statistics and DGVM-Modellierung (LPJmL).Haberl et al., 2007. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 12942-12947.


Biomass-Balance ModellFrom final demand to land requirements

- Crop products, forage and grazed biomass

- Balance of supply and demand

- Regional deficits balanced by trade

- Evaluation of global balance


Diet patterns in 2000 and four scenarios for 2050


FAO Prognosis: Crop production 1960-2050

-

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[mill

ion

t dm

/yr]

Other crops

Vegetables and fruits

Roots and tubers

Pulses

Sugar

Oil bearing crops

Cereals

FAO 2006, World agriculture towards 2030/2050, Rome.


Scenarios of cropland expansion 2050


Crop yields 1960 to 2050: Three scenarios

FAO Organic Intermediate


Mix of livestock production systems 2000 und 2050

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2050 Intensive 2050 Humane 2050 Organic

Subsistence Market-oriented extensive Organic Humane Intensive


Conversion efficiencies livestock system 1960-2050

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Inp

ut

/ O

utp

ut

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Inp

ut

/ O

utp

ut

Ruminants Monogastric


Calculation of Bioenergy Potential(Primary biomass!)

• Bioenergy from cropland:– In case „free“ cropland is available: Bioenergypotential = potential

aboveground NPP.

– In case the demand for crop products exceeds supply by less than 5%: „negativ“ bioenergy potential is subtracted from the potential available on grassland.

• Bioenergy from grassland:– Best grassland (category 1 out of four) is used more intensively.

– Grassland area in category 1 which becomes available by this measure is used for bioenergy production (aboveground NPP of act. vegetation).

• Bioenergy from crops residues:– Requirements for feeding livestock and bedding are subtracted from

available production.

– 50% of the reminder can be used for bioenergy production


Climate Impacts for Cropland Productivity (calculated with LPJmL)

Table 1. Modelled climate impact on cropland yields in 2050 with and without CO2 fertilization

Mean yield change under climate change 2050

with CO2 fertilization without CO2 fertilization Northern Africa and Western Asia + 4.44 % - 8.65 % Sub-Saharan Africa + 8.46 % - 6.17 % Central Asia and Russian Federation + 24.91 % + 5.12 % Eastern Asia + 11.96 % - 3.90 % Southern Asia + 18.45 % - 15.61 % South-Eastern Asia + 28.22 % - 15.83 % Northern America + 12.45 % - 6.25 % Latin America & the Carribean + 12.39 % - 7.02 % Western Europe + 16.42 % + 2.04 % Eastern & South-Eastern Europe + 19.08 % - 0.66 % Oceania and Australia + 0.74 % - 16.02 %

Source: Average of LPJmL model runs for 15 climate scenarios for 2050.


Results: Feasibility Analysis

Probably feasible

Feasible

Highlyfeasible

Not feasible-


Bioenergy potential 2050 in relation to diet assumptions (44 feasible scenarios)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Western highmeat (1)

Current trend(12)

Less meat (14) Fair less meat(17)

Bio

ener

gy

po

ten

tial

[E

J/yr

]Geometric mean

Min

Max


Regional distrubution of bioenergy potential(Trend-scenario: Total of 105 EJ/yr)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

N A

fric

a W

Asi

a

Su

b-S

ah

ara

nA

fric

a

C A

sia

, Ru

ssia

nF

ed

Ea

ste

rn A

sia

So

uth

ern

Asi

a

So

uth

-Ea

ste

rnA

sia

No

rth

ern

Am

eri

ca

La

tin A

me

rica

,C

arr

ibe

an

We

ste

rn E

uro

pe

E &

S-E

Eu

rop

e

Oce

an

ia,

Au

stra

lia

[EJ

/yr]

Primary crops

Residues


Bioenergy potentials and climate impacts (Trend Scenario)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

No climate change Including CO2 fertilization Excluding CO2 fertilization

Bio

en

erg

y p

ote

nti

al [

EJ

/yr]

Grazing land

Cropland residues

Cropland primary


Potential from Bioenergy plantations in 2050, Global Energy Assessment (forthcom. 2010, prelim.)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Van Vuuren etal 2009

WBGU 2008 Erb et al 2009 GEA

[EJ

/yr] Min

Max

Intermediate

WBGU, 2008. Bioenergie und nachhaltige Landnutzung. Berlin.

Van Vuuren 2009,

Energy Policy


Global Energy Flows: Overview

Total terrestrial NPP 2.190 EJ/yr

Terrestrial aboveground NPP 1.240 EJ/yr

Human harvest (used and unused) 346 EJ/yr

Fossil energy consumption 453 EJ/yr

Biomass for technical energy 54 EJ/yr

Global technical primary energy supply 551 EJ/yr

Bioenergy potential, range var. estimates 33-1.290 EJ/yr

Bioenergy potential 2050, this study 58-158 EJ/yr


Conclusions

• Feeding a growing world population is possible with ecologically sound agricultural production – but only at a modest increase of the share of animal products in human diet.

• Dietary patterns matter: An increase in the share of animal products in human diets has far reaching implications:– Need to intensify land use (yield increases, feeding efficiency)

– Expansion of cropland

– Bioenergy potential reduced

• Food security and bioenergy are possible without further deforestation.• Bioenergy and globalisation: Largest bioenergy potentials in

Subsaharan Africa and Latin America.• Climate matters: Bioenergy potential strongly depends on diet patterns

and climate impacts. The later are only poorly understood.


Report „Eating the planet?“ online:http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/downloads/WP116_WEB.pdf


Data download http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm

Documents

The world's bioenergy potential in the context of global food and farming trends