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20 March 2008
Metropolitan Club, New York
The World of FFAs
Thoughts from the smartest man who ever lived…
Who is IMAREX?• World`s only regulated market for freight swaps, futures and options
• Hybrid exchange model with Brokers, E-Trading (Exchange) and Clearing
• Founded 2000 – IPO 2005 (OSE: IMAREX) market cap appr NOK 2 Billion
• 15% owned by NYMEX Holdings (acquired Oct 2007) ,280 employees worldwide
• US$15 billion of freight traded via IMAREX in 2007, up 130% on 2006
• Over US$10 billion traded electronically on IMAREX screen in 2007
• Global dry bulk and tanker freight futures and options (15% / 50% market share)
• Nordic and European Power, emissions, gas swaps and options (25% market share)
• Nordic salmon futures (FishPool – 100% market share)
• Oslo, Singapore, Houston, London, Genova, Frankfurt, New York Vancouver and Bergen
Global Client BaseAll the main commodity traders are present – 200 members as of Q1 2008
Freight derivatives are taking off!Growth is driven by market`s need to hedge against rising/falling freight rates and investor appetite for new volatility
Volatility causes liquditiy
Liquidity breeds liquidity
Liquidity attracts new players
!FFAs offer investors access to the underlying freight market without owning any physical assets
!Fast, flexible and efficient
Total Dry bulk FFA market now at close to par with underlying market size
Banks, Commodity traders and Funds are now entering the market
FFA volumes 2003-2007
550000
2200000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
Lots
trad
e
What is an FFA?• Financial instrument used to buy/sell price of freight on forward basis.
– Cash settled (no delivery)
– Settlement prices based on Baltic Indices
– Final price is an average, rather than the price on a specific day
– Mark-to-market
• Used by ship owners, charterers and financial institutions
– Hedge
– Speculate
• About $120 billion market
Market Participants
• Ship Owners
• Charterers
– producers, receivers, traders
• Financial
– hedge funds, banks
Ship Owners• Hedge their inherent long position• Offset a future known short position
• Manage risk• Stabilize earnings• More efficient than time-charter market
Charterers
• Hedge their inherent short position• Offset a future known long position
• Manage risk• Stabilize costs• More efficient than time-charter market*
Financial
• Hedge equities• Hedge commodities exposure• Speculate*
• Manage risk• FFAs improve discovery process
How Each Market Trades
• Tankers– Smaller lots
– More trades
– Continual price discovery
• Dry Bulk– Larger lots, ie full years / full ships
– Price discovery can be choppy
– Larger notional values
Tanker Rate Volatility
Relative FFA Volumes (not calibrated to either axis)
Source: Clarksons Research Services
Volatility Comparison
Source: Imarex, Clarksons Research Services, CBOT
DRYS v Dry Rates (Daily Baltic Index)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9/12/2
006
10/12
/2006
11/11
/2006
12/11
/2006
1/10/2
007
2/9/20
07
3/11/2
007
4/10/2
007
5/10/2
007
6/9/20
07
7/9/20
07
8/8/20
07
9/7/20
07
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
DRYS Closing Price
Dry Index
r squared = .92
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1996-01 1997-01 1998-01 1999-01 2000-01 2001-01 2002-01 2003-01 2004-01 2005-01 2006-01 2007-010
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
RatioAvg Cape Earnings
Dry Earnings v Ore/Fleet Ratio
Ratio = China ore imports (mil mt)dry bulk fleet (mil mt)
Correlation = -.68
Source: Imarex, Clarksons
FFAs Create a More Efficient Market
• Transparency…
• Continual Price Discovery…
• Lower bid/ask spreads…
• Essential risk management tool!
Disclaimer
The information contained herein is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further
distributed by the recipient. This information is believed to be correct but the accuracy
thereof is not guaranteed and Imarex and its employees cannot accept liability for loss
suffered in consequence of reliance on the information provided. Provision of this data
does not obviate the need to make further appropriate enquiries and inspections. The
information is for the use of the recipient only and is not to be without the written
permission of Imarex Inc.
20 March 2008
Metropolitan Club, New York
The World of FFAs