The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018 (WNISR2018) · 2019. 10. 23. · The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018 ... Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximum

WNISR2018

Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 20191

Mycle SchneiderIndependent Interna*onal Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy, Paris

WNISR Convening Lead Author and Publisher

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018 (WNISR2018)www.WorldNuclearReport.org

”Nuclear Power: Asset or Barrier for the Energy TransiGon?”Heinrich Böll S*Cung EU – Greens-EFA in the European Parliament

Representa9on of the State of Baden-Wür@emberg to the EU, 5 February 2019

http://www.worldnuclearreport.org/

WNISR2018


GLOBAL OVERVIEW – WORLD FLEET

2

5

10

15

20

25

30

20182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting

Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the Worldin Units, from 1954 to 2018

Reactor Shutdowns

China Rest of the WorldReactor Startups

All Countries (No Chinese in Total)

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019

WNISR2018


EU28 – STARTUPS AND SHUTDOWNS

5

15

182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601956

-10

-5

0

10© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting

Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28in Units, from 1956 to 2018

YearlyBalance

Reactor Startups

Reactor Shutdowns


WNISR2018


GLOBAL OVERVIEW – WORLD FLEET


4

0

100

200

300

400

500

Operable capacity

20192015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954


2002Maximum Numberof Reactors: 438

1/2019367 GWe

415 Reactors 1989

312 GWe420 Reactors

2006Maximum OperatingCapacity: 368 GWe

Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the World in Units and GWe, from 1954 to 1/2019

Reactors in Operation

Operating Capacity

Units GWe

0

100

200

300

400

GWe

7/1820152010200520001995 7/18

WNISR2018


EU28 – OPERATING REACTORS/CAPACITY

0

50

100

150

Operable capacity

1820152010200520001995199019851980197519701965196019560

50

100

150


Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU 28 in Units and GWe, from 1956 to 2018

Reactors in Operation

Operating Capacity

Units GWe

12/2018118 GWe

126 Reactors

1989124.4 GWe

177 Reactors

2000Maximum Operating

Capacity: 136.8 GWe 1988

Maximum Number of Reactors: 177


WNISR2018


Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 2018

GLOBAL OVERVIEW – ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER

6

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

5

10

15

17201520102005200019951990 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

17201520102005200019951990

© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting

Nuclear Electricity Production 1990-2017In the World...in TWh (net) and Share in Electricity Generation (gross)

...and in China and the Rest of the World in TWh (net)

1996Maximum : 17.5%

TWh

Sharein %

2017Production: 2,503 TWh

Share:10.3%

2006Maximum:

2,660 TWh

TWh

2015-2017Since 2014, without China's contribution,

world nuclear production has declined.In 2017, it increased by 1% globally, but

fell by 0.4% outside ChinaNuclear Share

Nuclear ElectricityProduction

ChinaRest ofthe World

WNISR2018


2014

800 600 400 200 0

Armenia

Netherlands

Argentina

Slovenia

Iran

Pakistan

Mexico

Romania

Slovakia

Brazil

Bulgaria

South Africa

Hungary

Switzerland

Taiwan

Finland

Czech Rep.

Japan

India

Belgium

Spain

Sweden

UK

Germany

Ukraine

Canada

South Korea

Russia

China

France

USA

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Iran

Brazil

Netherlands

India

Japan

China

Argentina

Mexico

Pakistan

South Africa

Taiwan

Germany

Canada

Romania

Russia

UK

USA

Spain

South Korea

Armenia

Czech Rep.

Finland

Switzerland

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Sweden

Belgium

Hungary

Slovakia

Ukraine

France


2005

2002

2003

1986

2014

1996

2005

1996

1986

2009

1987

2013

1989

1997

1995

2015

2009

1994

1988

1989

1989

1990

2017

1986

2001

1998

201520102005

1994

2001

1999

2004

2001

1999

1998

2007

2017

2015

2011

2017

Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximumin TWh and Share In Electricity Production

TWh Percentage

20162017Historic MaximumHistoric Maximum Year1998

Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 2018

GLOBAL OVERVIEW – NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION

7

(Top 21)

2014

800 600 400 200 0

Armenia

Netherlands

Argentina

Slovenia

Iran

Pakistan

Mexico

Romania

Slovakia

Brazil

Bulgaria

South Africa

Hungary

Switzerland

Taiwan

Finland

Czech Rep.

Japan

India

Belgium

Spain

Sweden

UK

Germany

Ukraine

Canada

South Korea

Russia

China

France

USA

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Iran

Brazil

Netherlands

India

Japan

China

Argentina

Mexico

Pakistan

South Africa

Taiwan

Germany

Canada

Romania

Russia

UK

USA

Spain

South Korea

Armenia

Czech Rep.

Finland

Switzerland

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Sweden

Belgium

Hungary

Slovakia

Ukraine

France


2005

2002

2003

1986

2014

1996

2005

1996

1986

2009

1987

2013

1989

1997

1995

2015

2009

1994

1988

1989

1989

1990

2017

1986

2001

1998

201520102005

1994

2001

1999

2004

2001

1999

1998

2007

2017

2015

2011

2017

Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximumin TWh and Share In Electricity Production

TWh Percentage

20162017Historic MaximumHistoric Maximum Year1998

WNISR2018


GLOBAL OVERVIEW — CONSTRUCTIONS


8

WNISR2018


GLOBAL OVERVIEW — CONSTRUCTIONS

9

Nuclear Reactors “Under Construc2on” (as of 1 July 2018)

Sources: Compiled by WNISR, 2018

WNISR2018


GLOBAL OVERVIEW – CONSTRUCTION TIMES

10

Reactor Construc-on Times of 55 Units Started-up 2008–7/2018

Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, WNA, 2018

WNISR2018


CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CANCELATIONS

11

GLOBAL OVERVIEW – CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CHINA


WNISR2018



WNISR2018


GLOBAL OVERVIEW – OPERATING AGE

13



as of 1 July 2018

0–10 Years11–20 Years21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and Over

Reactor Age

50 Number of Reactors by Age Class

Age of World Nuclear Fleet

413 reactorsMean Age:29.9 years

54

35

70

177

77

WNISR2018


EU28– OPERATING AGE


as of 1 July 2018

0–10 Years11–20 Years21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and Over

Reactor Age

50 Number of Reactors by Age Class

Age of EU Nuclear Fleet

125 reactorsMean Age:33.4 years

16

28

78

12


WNISR2018


US FOCUS – 18 EARLY CLOSURES ANNOUNCED 2009-2025

15

Sour

ces:

Vario

us so

urce

s com

pile

d by

WNI

SR

WNISR2018


NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT

16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

WindUtility Scale Solar (²)Gas - Combined CycleCoalNuclear

2017 11.0

2016 10.0

2015 9.0

2014 8.0

2013 7.0

2012 6.0

2011 5.0

2010 4.0

2009 3.0


Selected Historical Mean Costs by Technology LCOE values in US$/MWh (¹)

20%

-8%

-27%-86%-67%

Lazard LCOE VersionsSources: Lazard Es)mates, 2017

WNISR2018


0

201720142012201020082006200420022000

0

2017201420122010200820062004200220001998

© W

NIS

R -

Myc

le S

chn

eide

r C

onsu

ltin

g

© W

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Myc

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Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacity Added Since 2000in GWe net

Wind

Solar Nuclear

Annual ProductionCompared to 1997

in TWh/year

167

-23

3

226

2535

221

285

334

399

497

450

252

66

22

100

178

137

302

399

Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World

20

100

5 33

259327

442366

180294

289

397

241 239

512

51121

948

820

634

264

1 111

Nuclear(excl. LTO)


17

Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaEsEcal Review 2018

WNISR2018



18

0

201720142012201020082006200420022000

0

2017201420122010200820062004200220001998

© W

NIS

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Myc

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chn

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onsu

ltin

g

© W

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Myc

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chn

eide

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onsu

ltin

g

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacity Added Since 2000in GWe net

Wind

Solar

Nuclear


in TWh/year

-16-6

94

-17

-19

21

51

93

127

155

140

35

22

66

8071

100106

Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the EU

37

126

9775

245231

296

355

-47

45

-42

79

-32

60

-91

71

423

1089786

46

120

Nuclear(excl. LTO)

Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaDsDcal Review 2018

WNISR2018


201720142012201020082006200420022000 2017201420122010200820062004200220001998

© W

NIS

R -

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chn

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© W

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Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacityin GWe

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Electricity Productionin TWh/year

363 374

327

370 361 385353

3057

221

417

515

468

103

22

66

101178

227

400

Wind, Solar and Nuclear Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World

6 21

260101

328443

2 6302 553

2 661

2 5052 346

2 4442 503

133

276342

524646

959832

63

1 123

Nuclear (excl. LTO)

350

2 264


19


WNISR2018



20

Sources: DOE-EIA, 2018

201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000

© W

NIS

R -

Myc

le S

chn

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onsu

ltin

g

© W

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Myc

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chn

eide

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onsu

ltin

g

Wind

Solar

Nuclear


in net added TWh

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Annual Production2000-2017in net TWh

26

10

3543

53

15

51

12

68

29

89

115

162

176 185

249

221

135

1728

38

54

76

Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments in the United States 2000-2017

1055

30

77

770

754

764

806788 807 805

18

95

34

141191

254

WNISR2018



21

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Non-hydro renewablesHydroCoal

GasOilNuclear

201720152013201120092007

>3 000

>1 5001 470

980

-110 -200


Power Generation in the WorldAnnual Production Compared to 2007 in added TWh by Source

Sources: BP StaBsBcal Review 2018

WNISR2018



22

201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000

© W

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ltin

g

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacityin GWe

Wind

Solar Nuclear

Production in TWh/year

2 8713 19

27

35

18

46

97

132

164

149

77

7

28

44

78

131

Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in China 2000-2017

4 16

44

24

62

108124

16

6650

161

198

233

28

70

96

141156

237

186

4

286

Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaDsDcal Review 2018

WNISR2018


201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000

© W

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© W

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Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Capacityin GWe Wind

Solar Nuclear

Production in TWh/year

3

2

4 5

6

2

6

10

13

20

25

33

29

16

1 35

9

19

Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in India 2000-2017

0.8 1.4

2.8 6.64.9

11.6

21.520

29

14

18

15

30

35

3

9

1419

24

43

27

33

53


23


WNISR2018


CONCLUSIONS

24

• Small increase of nuclear power genera@on essen@ally due to China.• Long-term decline of nuclear power’s role con@nues.• Cost differen@al between nuclear and renewables s@ll increases.• Nine of 31 nuclear countries generate more power with renewables than nuclear.• Nuclear power capacity addi@ons are insignificant in global market (1 GW/257 GW net in 2017). Nuclear power becomes irrelevant.• Reactor construc@on starts down from 15 in 2010 to 5 in 2018; no commercial reactor building started in China since 2016.• Nuclear power is a species on way of ex@nc@on. Renewal rate too small for survival.• Decommissioning in early stages, only 10 of 174 closed sites at greenfield status.• New-build—and increasingly exis@ng nuclear—is more expensive (€/MWh) than solar/wind and is therefore contribu@ng to climate change.• Exis@ng nuclear is a very powerful innova@on barrier see Germany vs. Japan.

Mycle Schneider Consulting

Mycle Schneider works as independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy. He is the initiator and Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Reports. He is the Coordinator of the Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC) and the Spokesperson for IEAC. He is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at Princeton University, USA. In 2010-2011, he acted as Lead Consultant for the Asia Clean Energy Policy Exchange, implemented by IRG, funded by USAID, with the focus of developing a policy framework to boost energy efficiency and renewable energies. Between 2004 and 2009 he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies Lecture of the International Master of Science for Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering at the Ecole des Mines in Nantes, France.

From 2000 to 2010 he was an occasional advisor to the German Environment Ministry. 1998-2003 he was an advisor to the French Environment Minister’s Office and to the Belgian Minister for Energy and Sustainable Development. Mycle Schneider has given evidence or held briefings at national Parliaments in 15 countries and at the European Parliament. He has advised Members of the European Parliament from four different groups over the past 30+ years. He has given lectures or had teaching appointments at 20 universities and engineering schools in 10 countries.Mycle Schneider has provided information and consulting services to a large variety of clients including international institutions and organizations, think tanks and NGOs.In 1997, he was honoured with the Right Livelihood Award (“Alternative Nobel Prize”).

ThankYou! Contact: [email protected] www.WorldNuclearReport.org

www.worldnuclearreport.org

www.ieac.info

www.fissilematerials.org

https://www.usaid.gov/

http://rightlivelihood.org/

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The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018 (WNISR2018) · 2019. 10. 23. · The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018 ... Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximum