The world is going nuts! Trends and opportunities in nuts

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The world is going nuts!Trends and opportunities in nuts

Presented by:Lynn Dornblaser, Director, Custom Solutions Group

Mintel International

January 19, 2008


Mintel’s trend tracking tools

• GNPD: tracking new products around the world• GNPD IRIS: providing an understanding of product success• Product retrieval: delivering products to your door• Mintel Reports: understanding the “why” behind the trends• Menu Insights: revealing trends in menus, flavors, ingredients• Mintel Custom Solutions: bringing it all together


Today’s presentation

• First, an overall look at the new product numbers• A closer look at numbers in nuts• Trends in nuts:

– Flavors– Healthy positioning– Exclusivity

• Some thoughts for the future


Food and beverage shows strong increases

Food & beverage product introductions, 2005-2007

2005 2006 2007% change, 2006-2007

Beverages 15,933 17,040 20,166 18.3%Bakery 10,474 13,120 14,961 14.0%Confectionery 9,631 10,720 12,982 21.1%Sauces & Seasonings 7,464 9,669 11,829 22.3%Dairy 7,849 8,942 10,937 22.3%Snacks 7,088 9,203 10,887 18.3%Processed Fish, Meat & Egg Products 6,235 7,468 8,532 14.2%Meals & Meal Centers 5,306 7,198 7,337 1.9%Desserts & Ice Cream 4,548 5,293 5,905 11.6%Side Dishes 2,633 3,294 3,953 20.0%Fruit & Vegetables 2,586 3,269 3,841 17.5%Spreads 2,174 2,519 2,927 16.2%Pet Food 1,676 2,122 2,208 4.1%Breakfast Cereals 1,520 1,882 2,086 10.8%Soup 1,470 1,747 2,073 18.7%Baby Food 864 1,410 1,873 32.8%Sweeteners & Sugar 298 417 610 46.3%Total 87,749 105,313 123,107 16.9%Source: Mintel GNPD


Europe, Asia have strongest growth

Source: Mintel GNPD

Global food & beverage new product introductions, 2005-2007


What’s happening in nuts?

• The numbers:– Snack nut sales in the USA up only slightly, but new product

introductions up more strongly– Asia leads in snack nut introductions– Consumers use nuts primarily as snacks

• The trends:– Sweet, salty, unique flavors– Health-related claims– Energy claims– Providing a sense of “exclusivity”


Nuts form an important part of salty snacks

Global snack introductions, by subcategory, 2004-20072004 2005 2006 2007 Total % change,

2006-2007Fruit Snacks 204 632 992 1,236 3,064 24.6%Hors d'oeuvres/Canapes 621 770 898 1,019 3,308 13.5%Meat Snacks 302 247 587 727 1,863 23.9%Nuts 801 905 1,189 1,591 4,486 33.8%Popcorn 293 279 283 367 1,222 29.7%Savoury/Salty Snacks 3,540 3,326 4,279 5,160 16,305 20.6%Snack Mixes 208 206 300 394 1,108 31.3%Snack/Cereal/Energy Bars 1,600 1,511 1,672 1,910 6,693 14.2%Total 7,569 7,876 10,200 12,404 38,049 21.6%Source: Mintel GNPD

Source: Mintel Premier


Nuts by region dominated by Asia

Source: Mintel GNPD

Global snack nut introductions, by region, 2005-2007


US snacks

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2004 2005 2006 2007

Fruit Snacks Hors d'oeuvres/Canapes Meat Snacks NutsPopcorn Savoury/Salty Snacks Snack Mixes Snack/Cereal/Energy BarsSource: Mintel GNPD

US snack introductions, by category, 2005-2007


Snack nuts hold their own in salty snack category

FDM sales of salty snacks, segmented by type, 2005 and 20072005 2007 (est.) Change 2005-07

$million % $million % %Potato chips 2,741 28.9 2,771 28.3 1.1Tortilla chips 1,860 19.6 1,975 20.2 6.2Snack nuts and seeds 1,560 16.4 1,605 16.4 2.9Popcorn 848 8.9 830 8.5 -2.1Pretzels 551 5.8 591 6 7.4Cheese snacks 565 5.9 561 5.7 -0.7Corn snacks (no tortilla chips) 387 4.1 394 4 1.8Other 984 10.4 1,066 10.9 8.3Total 9,496 26.2 9,793 26.7 3.1

Source: Mintel/based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan ® Reviews Information

Data may not equal totals due to rounding Note: Excludes sales from Wal-Mart; estimates for 2007 is based on IRI 52-week period ending March 25, 2007



Salted nuts most popular

Sweet, spicy, salty or plain, by age, April 2007All 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+% % % % % % %

Salty 83 85 82 85 87 87 75Plain or raw 55 46 53 56 62 53 54Sweet, such as those that are glazed or coated in sugar 53 65 62 53 54 52 38Spicy, such as those that are seasoned with BBQ or other savory flavor 33 37 39 39 32 28 19Base: 1,710 adults aged 18 and older who eat any kind of nutsSource: Mintel/Greenfield Online



Global flavored nuts: most prevalent and emerging

most prevalent emergingPlain Green tea

Salted MapleRoasted Vanilla

Spicy Chili pepper & lemonHoney/honey roasted Shrimp

Chili pepper BambooGarlic Onion & Parsley

Barbecue Lemon & saltCoconut Salt & pepperWasabi Coffee

Snack nut flavors

Source: Mintel GNPD


Unique flavors

Dan On Foods’ Dan D Pak Coconut Peanuts, Vietnam; Aldi’s Farmer Black Pepper Peanuts, Germany


Flavors: hot and spicy

Migros’ Party Peanuts with Wasabi, Switzerland


Unique flavors: hot and spicy

Sabritas’ Radical Chili and Lemon Peanuts, Mexico, in an “Inferno” variety; Santa Barbara Pistachio’s Chile-Lemon Pistachios, USA


Consumers understand the healthfulness of nuts

Knowledge about health properties of nuts, April 2007Have heard

of it and believe the statement

Have heard of it but don’t believe the statement

Have not heard of it

% % %Nuts are a good source of protein 88 4 8Eating nuts may help reduce the risk of heart disease 59 9 32Walnuts have a significant amount of heart healthy omega-3 fatty acids 58 5 37Peanuts are rich in antioxidants 52 7 41Base: 2,000 adults aged 18 and olderSource: Mintel/Greenfield Online



Energy

Kraft Foods’ Planters NUT-rition Energy Mix, USA, with almonds, dark chocolate covered soy nuts, walnuts, and pecans


Energy

Sweet Energy’s Energy Nuts Mix, USA, with raisins, peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts, almonds, and Brazil nuts; Dakota Valley Products’

Sumseeds Energy Seeds, USA, sunflower seeds with added caffeine;


Naturally rich in

Australian Pioneer’s Oven Dried & Salted Australian Pistachios, Australia, with a claim of being a good source of fiber and vitamin E


Portion control

Blue Diamond Growers’ 100 Calorie Pack Grab & Go Bags, Canada; CVS Pharmacy’s Gold Emblem Cashews, USA, in a 1.5-oz. snack size


Portion control

Kraft Foods’ Planters Nuts on the Go!, USA, a multipack of 24 individual 28g bags; Costco’s Kirkland Variety Snacking Nuts, USA, a box with 24 individual

snack-size packs of cashews, almonds, and peanuts


Healthy: organic

Safeway’s O Organics Organic Almonds, USA, part of a broad line of organic products; Kraft Foods’ Planters Organic Nut Selections, USA


Fair trade

Equal Exchange Trading’s Montecristo Cashew Nuts, Finland; Alter Eco’s Amazonian Nuts, France, made with nuts from Peru


Nuts mostly eaten on their own

Ways that respondents eat nuts, by gender, April 2007All Male Female% % %

Eat them alone just by the handful 95 95 95Eat them in baked goods, such as breads or cookies 59 55 64Eat them in candy, such as peanut brittle or chocolate covered nuts 58 56 60Eat them in a trail mix 46 45 46Eat them on salads 39 33 45Eat them in meals, such as peanuts in Asian noodle dishes or pinenuts in Italian pasta dishes 31 28 34Eat them in cereal or oatmeal 31 30 32Eat them in yogurt 14 11 16Other 2 3 2Base: 1,710 adults aged 18 and older who eat any kind of nutsSource: Mintel/Greenfield Online



Nuts as ingredients, global

2005 2006 2007 Total% change 2006-2007

peanut 1,005 1,269 1,274 3,548 0.4%almond 608 552 703 1,863 27.4%pecan 444 388 532 1,364 37.1%hazelnut 375 189 294 858 55.6%walnut 196 199 310 705 55.8%macadamia 181 152 223 556 46.7%cashew 91 151 137 379 -9.3%pistachio 44 62 118 224 90.3%Total 2,944 2,962 3,591 9,497 21.2%Source: Mintel GNPD

Selected nuts in food and beverage, global introductions, 2005-2007

Source: Mintel GNPD


Meals

Bofrost’s Chicken-Curry Dish, Austria, frozen meal with chicken, peppers, cashews, and pineapple; Loblaws’ Presidents Choice Pineapple Rice Side

Dish, Canada, with cashews and vegetables


Almonds show greatest growth in usage

Kinds of nuts used, 2002-062002 2004 2006% % %

Peanuts 65 64 66Cashews 53 53 56Walnuts 47 48 51Mixed 47 47 48Almonds 36 41 46Pecans 42 41 42Sunflower seeds 29 28 29Pistachios 25 28 26Macadamia nuts 13 14 14Filberts (hazelnuts) 4 6 7Other kinds 8 8 9

Source: Mintel/Simmons NCS Fall 2006

Base: adults aged 18 and over whose HH uses nuts for cooking or snacks: 15,258 in 2002; 16,327 in 2004; and 16,354 in 2006



Walnuts trend toward older consumers

Kinds of nuts used, by age, January-September 2006All 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+% % % % % % %

Peanuts 66 70 68 72 65 64 57Cashews 56 55 54 59 59 59 48Walnuts 51 45 41 48 49 55 61Mixed 48 52 47 49 47 46 47Almonds 46 49 46 52 47 47 39Pecans 42 39 35 40 42 45 50Sunflower seeds 29 37 34 41 30 22 14Pistachios 26 31 29 33 28 23 16Macadamia nuts 14 15 12 17 15 11 12Filberts (hazelnuts) 7 9 6 8 6 6 6Other kinds 9 13 9 10 10 8 8Base: 24,467 adults aged 18 and overSource: Mintel/Simmons NCS Fall 2006



Unique packaging

Kraft Foods’ Planters nuts in a Mr. Peanut canister, USA; Albert Heijn’s Nut Duo, Netherlands, a two-compartment tub with cashews and almonds


Exclusivity: upscale

World’s Finest Chocolate’s Continental Chocolate Almonds, USA; NaturSource Luxure Cashews, Canada, positioned as “a source of energy

and a decadent delight”


Exclusivity: upscale seasonings

Duyvis’ Cashews with sea salt, Netherlands


Thoughts for the future

• Keep an eye on overall market trends for ideas for snack nuts (salt varietals, social responsibility, inherent goodness, satiety)

• Packaging innovation appears to be lacking in the snack nut category—how can packaging better convey benefits, improve usage, or increase perceived value?

• Focus on the inherent goodness of nuts: protein, healthy oils, fiber• Opportunity for limited-edition or limited-time flavors, perhaps with

regional or ethnic appeal


www.mintel.com

Lynn Dornblaser

[email protected]

312 932 0400

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The world is going nuts! Trends and opportunities in nuts