The World in 2025: Demographic and

Urbanisation Trends

EU Seminar “The World in 2025”

Brussels, 24 September 2009

Gijs Beets, NIDI (beets@nidi.nl)

Main demographic issues

• Variation in population growth across world regions: Population decline, specifically in Europe, but in first half 21st century also in China and Japan

• Declining number of children• Rising life expectancy• International migration• Population ageing• Urbanisation

Population size, 1950-2050 (millions)In 2025 no European country in top-10

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

WrldMore

dvLe

ss dv

Leas

t dv

Africa

AsiaEuro

peLa

t Am

Nrth Am

Oceania

1950

1975

2000

2010

2025

2050

Yearly population growth (%), 1950-2050In 2025: Europe lowest, Africa highest

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

WrldMore

dvLe

ss dv

Leas

t dv

Africa

AsiaEuro

peLa

t Am

Nrth Am

Oceania

1950-55 1975-80 2000-052010-15 2025-30 2045-50

Largest countries by 2025 (100 million or over)

• China (1453)• India (1431)• EU-27 (517)• USA (358)• Indonesia (263)• Pakistan (246)• Brazil (214)• Nigeria (210)• Bangladesh (195)

• Russia (132)• Mexico (123)• Japan (120)• Ethiopia (119)• Philippines (117)• Egypt (105)

Number of children

• Decline is one of the most important behavioural changes in post war societies, maybe the most important

• Variation by social group: Education is the best contraceptive, as it also raises the age at first birth

• Education also raises voluntary childlessness, but mainly among university educated women

• Future number of children is supposed to be near or around the replacement level

• But there will still be much variation around 2025

Number of children per woman, 1950-2050In 2025: Europe lowest, Africa highest

012345678

WrldMore

dvLe

ss dv

Leas

t dv

Africa

AsiaEuro

peLa

t Am

Nrth Am

Oceania

1950-55 1975-80 2000-052010-15 2025-30 2045-50

Life expectancy

• Rise is mainly the result of the enormous efforts by our ancestors to improve sanitation, hygiene and medical treatments

• Successful fight against infectious diseases• Variation in life expectancy by social group • Lowering life expectancy is unacceptable• Future of life expectancy is debated

(optimism versus pessimism)

Life expectancy (in years), 1950-2050In 2025: North America highest, Africa lowest

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

WrldMore

dvLe

ss dv

Leas

t dv

Africa

AsiaEuro

peLat

AmNrth

AmOcea

nia

1950-55 1975-80 2000-052010-15 2025-30 2045-50

International migration

• Economic push and pull factors (labour market and welfare)

• Social networks of migrants abroad pull newcomers• Humanitarian reasons• Environmental reasons• Compared to fertility and mortality it is more

difficult to predict the level, timing and geographical scope of migration

Yearly net migration (per 1000), 1950-2050In 2025: Nrth America highest, Lat Am lowest

-3-2

-1012

345

67

WrldMore dvLe

ss dv

Leas

t dv

Africa

AsiaEuro

peLa

t Am

Nrth Am

Oceania

1950-55 1975-80 2000-052010-15 2025-30 2045-50

Population ageing

• Effect of fertility decline + post WW2 baby boom

• Fertility structures population age profile• Moreover increasing life expectancy adds to

ageing process• Migration normally only has a negligible to

very small effect (unless unrealistic large migration streams continue for ever)

Population ageing

• Western societies are ageing already for over 100 yrs• It will only last another 50 years or so, and then

some population rejuvenation is ahead in Europe, but also population decline

• A relative young population coincides with population increase

• It is demographically impossible to have a continuing young population that does not increase in size

% Population 65 years or over, 1950-2050In 2025: Europe oldest, Africa youngest

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

WrldMore

dvLe

ss dv

Least d

v

Africa

AsiaEuropeLat A

mNrth

AmOcean

ia

1950

1975

2000

2010

2025

2050

Median age (in years), 1950-2050In 2025: Europe oldest, Africa youngest

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

WrldMore

dvLess

dvLeast

dv

Africa

AsiaEuro

peLat A

mNrth

AmOcea

nia

1950

1975

2000

2010

2025

2050

Old age dependency, 1950-2050(population 65+ per population 15-64)

05

101520253035404550

WrldMore

dvLe

ss dv

Least dv

Africa

AsiaEurop

eLa

t Am

Nrth Am

Oceania

1950

1975

2000

2010

2025

2050

Three basic shapes

Growingpopulation,

young

Shrinkingpopulation,

aged

Constantpopulation

World populationMen Women

AfricaMen Women

AsiaMen Women

Latin AmericaMen Women

Northern AmericaMen Women

OceaniaMen Women

EuropeMen Women

Eastern EuropeMen Women

Northern EuropeMen Women

Southern EuropeMen Women

Western EuropeMen Women

% Urban population, 1950-2050In 2025: North America highest, Africa lowest

0102030405060708090

100

WrldMore dvLess d

vLeast d

v

Africa

AsiaEuropeLat A

mNrth

AmOceania

1950

1975

2000

2010

2025

2050

Yearly urban population growth (%), 1950-2050In 2025: Europe lowest, Africa highest

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

WrldMore dvLe

ss dv

Leas

t dv

Africa

AsiaEurop

eLat

AmNrth

AmOcean

ia

1950-55 1975-80 2000-052010-15 2025-30 2045-50

NL University cities:Amsterdam DelftGroningen Utrecht

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Utrecht Nederlandmannen vrouw en

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Amsterdam Nederlandmannen vrouw en

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Delft Nederlandmannen vrouw en

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Groningen Nederlandmannen vrouw en

NL Ethnic groups:Turks MoroccansAntilleans Surinamese

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Turken Nederland 2006mannen vrouw en

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Marok. Nederland 2006mannen vrouw en

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Antil+A. Nederland 2006mannen vrouw en

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Surin. Nederland 2006mannen vrouw en

Conclusions

• World population in 2025 is larger than now, also in EU-27 but not so in total Europe

• Large variation in population growth across world, also within Europe

• Russia is last European country to soon disappear from world top-10

• Ageing everywhere, Europe will be the first to see ageing process come in final stage

Discussion

• Low (period) fertility is partly result of postponement, (cohort) fertility is higher

• Europe is first to see population rejuvenation • Increasing migration and multiculturalism• Population size and age structure are

autonomous processes; impact of population policies is usually small