The world economy, a focus on the eurozone Philippe DARVISENET,
Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group BNP PARIBAS BUDAPEST, December 2014
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/// 2 1 Global trends: OECD an EMEs 2 Economic outlook and
policies: USA, UK, Japan, Eurozone 3 The Eurozone crisis, where are
we ?
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/// 3 Economic growth outlook Sources of risk The issues:
deflation and stagnation Global trends, OECD and EMES
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/// 4 US: the recovery accelerates, towards a normalization in
monetary policy UK: Best performances among the main advanced
economies but fragilities Japan: Abenomics after the VAT shock
Eurozone: disappointing outlook, extremely low inflation, questions
about the effectiveness in monetary policy EMES : BRICS, the five
fragile , China, Indian, Brazil Economic outlook and policies
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/// 5 The origins The crisis management: hesitations, errors,
better institutions Crisis management instruments EFSF/ESM Tighter
rules (SGP, 6 pack, 2 pack, TSCG, european semester) Banking union:
SSM, SRM Unconventional monetary polity (OMT, TLTROs, ABS and
Covered bond purchase programs) Discussions about the nature of the
crisis Optimal monetary area ECB a federal institution without a
governement Public finance consolidation: How? The Eurozone
crisis
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6 I WORLD Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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7 Chart 1 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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8 Chart 2 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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9 Chart 3 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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10 II US Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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11 Chart 4 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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12 Chart 5 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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13 Chart 6 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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14 Chart 7 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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15 Chart 8 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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16 Chart 9 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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17 Chart 10 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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18 Chart 11 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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19 Chart 12 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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20 III JAPAN Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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21 Chart 13 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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22 Chart 14 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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23 Chart 15 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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24 Chart 16 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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25 Chart 17 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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26 Chart 18 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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27 Chart 19 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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28 IV UK Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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29 Chart 20 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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30 Chart 21 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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31 Chart 22 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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32 Chart 23 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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33 Chart 24 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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34 V EMERGING COUNTRIES Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP
PARIBAS Group December 2014
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35 Chart 25 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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36 Chart 26 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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37 Chart 27 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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38 Chart 28 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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39 Chart 29 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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40 Chart 30 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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41 Chart 31 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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42 VI EURO ZONE Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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43 Chart 32 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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44 Chart 33 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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45 Chart 34 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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46 Chart 35 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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47 Chart 36 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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48 Chart 37 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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49 Chart 38 Non performing loans as % of total private sector*
borrowing Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group December
2014
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50 Chart 39 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
December 2014
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51 Chart 40 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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52 Chart 41 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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53 Chart 42 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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54 Chart 43 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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55 Chart 44 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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56 Chart 45 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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57 Chart 46 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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58 Chart 47 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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59 Chart 48 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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60 Chart 49 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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61 Chart 50 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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62 Chart 51 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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63 Chart 52 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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64 Chart 53 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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65 Chart 54 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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66 Chart 55 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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67 Chart 56 Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS Group
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68 Our publications Philippe DArvisenet, Advisor, BNP PARIBAS
Group December 2014