Document of The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: 35957-TJ

PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

ON A

PROPOSED GRANT

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 0.7 MILLION (US$ 1 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO THE

TAJIKISTAN

FOR

STRENGTHENING THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM PROJECT

May 18, 2006

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective 1.10.2006)

Currency Unit = US$ Tajikistan Somoni (TJS) 3.20 = US$1

US$1 = SDR 0.7

FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ACU Aid Coordination Unit ADB Asian Development Bank CAS Country Assistance Strategy CFAA Country Financial Accountability Assessment CIS Confederation of Independent States CPAR Country Procurement Assessment Review CPI Consumer Price Index CPS Country Partnership Strategy DFID Department for International Development (UK) ECA Europe and Central Asia EUROSTAT European Union Statistics Department FAO Food and Agriculture Organization (UN) FMR Financing Monitoring Reports FMS Financial Management System GDDS General Data Dissemination Standards (IMF) GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System GKS Goskomstat (State Statistical Committee) GPS Geographic Positioning System GVRO General Vital Registration Office HBS Household Budget Survey IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICB International Competitive Bidding ICM Implementation Completion Memorandum ICP International Comparison Program ICT Information and Communications Technology IDA International Development Association IDSL ISDN Digital Subscriber Line ILO International Labor Organiation IMF International Monetary Fund ISCE International Standard Classification of Education ISDN Integrated Services Digital Network ISIC International Standard Industrial Classification IT Information Technology LAN Local Area Network LFS Labor Force Survey LSMS Living Standards Measurement Survey MAPS Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics MDG Millennium Development Goals

MCC Main Computing Center MISP Multi-year Integrated Statistical Plan NDS National Development Strategy NOE Non-Observed Economy NSDS National Statistical Development Strategy NSO National Statistical Organization (generic) OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PARIS21 Partnership in Statistics for Development in the 21st Century PBC Policy Based Credit PCE Personal Consumption Expenditures PCT Project Coordination Team PIU Project Implementation Unit POM Project Operational Manual PPI Producer Price Index PRSC Poverty Reduction Strategy Credit PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSC Project Steering Committee PSRP Public Sector Reform Project QNA Quarterly national accounts ROSC Report on Observing Standards and Codes (IMF) SBD Standard Bidding Documents SCB Statistical Capacity Building SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standards (IMF) SIDA Swedish International Development Agency SMP Statistical Master Plan SNA System of National Accounts SREO State Register of Enterprises and Organizations SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences STATCAP Adaptable Program Lending facility for statistical capacity building (WB) TA Technical assistance TACIS Technical Assistance for CIS TFSCB Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building TIKA Turkish International Cooperation Agency TOR Terms of Reference TTL Task Team Leader UNDP United Nations Development Program UNSD United Nations Statistical Division WB World Bank

Vice President: Shigeo Katsu

Acting Country Director: Annette Dixon Sector Manager: Carlos Felipe Jaramillo

STATCAP Program Manager Misha Belkindas Task Team Leader: Mustafa Dinc

TAJIKISTAN Strengthening the National Statistical System

CONTENTS

Page

A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE ................................................................. 1 1. Country and sector issues.................................................................................................... 1

2. Rationale for Bank involvement ......................................................................................... 2

3. Higher level objectives to which the project contributes.................................................... 3

B. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................. 4 1. Lending instrument ............................................................................................................. 4

2. Project development objective and key indicators.............................................................. 4

3. Project components............................................................................................................. 5

4. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design............................................................ 7

5. Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection .............................................................. 8

C. IMPLEMENTATION .......................................................................................................... 8 1. Partnership arrangements (if applicable) ............................................................................ 8

2. Institutional and implementation arrangements.................................................................. 9

3. Monitoring and evaluation of outcomes/results.................................................................. 9

4. Sustainability..................................................................................................................... 10

5. Critical risks and possible controversial aspects............................................................... 11

6. Loan/credit conditions and covenants............................................................................... 12

D. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 12 1. Economic and financial analyses ...................................................................................... 12

2. Technical........................................................................................................................... 13

3. Fiduciary ........................................................................................................................... 13

4. Social................................................................................................................................. 14

5. Environment...................................................................................................................... 15

6. Safeguard policies............................................................................................................. 15

7. Policy Exceptions and Readiness...................................................................................... 15

Annex 1: Country and Sector or Program Background ......................................................... 16

Annex 2: Major Related Projects Financed by the Bank and/or other Agencies ................. 20

Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring ........................................................................ 21

Annex 4: Detailed Project Description...................................................................................... 32

Annex 5: Project Costs ............................................................................................................... 52

Annex 6: Implementation Arrangements ................................................................................. 53

Annex 7: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements..................................... 55

Annex 8: Procurement Arrangements ...................................................................................... 64

Annex 9: Economic and Financial Analysis ............................................................................. 70

Annex 10: Safeguard Policy Issues............................................................................................ 71

Annex 11: Project Preparation and Supervision ..................................................................... 72

Annex 12: Documents in the Project File ................................................................................. 74

Annex 13: Statement of Loans and Credits.............................................................................. 75

Annex 14: Country at a Glance ................................................................................................. 77

Annex 15: Governance and Accountability Issues................................................................... 79

1

TAJIKISTAN

STRENGTHENING THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM

PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

DECDG

Date: April 17, 2006 Team Leader: Mustafa Dinc Country Director: Annette Dixon Sector Manager/Director: Carlos Felipe Jaramillo

Sectors: Central government administration (100%) Themes: Economic statistics, modeling and forecasting (P);Poverty strategy, analysis and monitoring (S);Other economic management (S)

Project ID: P098410 Environmental screening category: Not Required Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan

Project Financing Data

[ ] Loan [] Credit [X] Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other: For Loans/Credits/Others: Total Bank financing (US$m.): 1.00 Proposed terms:

Financing Plan (US$m) Source Local Foreign Total

BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.87 0.00 0.87 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

1.00 0.00 1.00

UK: BRITISH DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (DFID)

1.10 0.00 1.10

SWEDEN: SWEDISH INTL. DEV. COOPERATION AGENCY (SIDA)

2.10 0.00 2.10

Financing Gap -4.20 4.20 0.00 Total: 0.87 4.20 5.07 Borrower: Government of Republic of Tajikistan Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan Responsible Agency: State Statistical Committee 17 Bokhtar Dushanbe Tajikistan Tel: +992372 232553 STAT@TOJIKISTON.COM http://www.stat.tj/english/home.htm

2

Estimated disbursements (Bank FY/US$m) FY 06 07 08 09 10 11 0 0 0 Annual $0.134 $1.341 $1.225 $1.2 $0.911 $0.261 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative $0.134 $1.475 $2.7 $3.9 $4.811 $5.072 0.00 0.00 0.00 Project implementation period: 5 Years Start May 31, 2006 End: June 30, 2011 Expected effectiveness date: May 31, 2006 Expected closing date: June 30, 2011

Does the project depart from the CAS in content or other significant respects? Ref. PAD A.3 [ ]Yes [X] No

Does the project require any exceptions from Bank policies? Ref. PAD D.7 Have these been approved by Bank management? Is approval for any policy exception sought from the Board?

[ ]Yes [X] No [ ]Yes [ ] No [ ]Yes [X] No

Does the project include any critical risks rated “substantial” or “high”? Ref. PAD C.5 [ ]Yes [X] No

Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Ref. PAD D.7 [X]Yes [ ] No

Project development objective Ref. PAD B.2, Technical Annex 3 The main objective of the project is to modernize the national statistical system and improve its efficiency and effectiveness to provide relevant, timely and reliable statistical data for evidence-based policy making in support of Government’s poverty reduction strategies and the process of economic development. Project description [one-sentence summary of each component] Ref. PAD B.3.a, Technical Annex 4

• Institutional Development component will support the improvement of the institutional capacity to carry out the formulation, coordination, and implementation of appropriate statistical policies and programs that will address to the needs of Tajikistan.

• Human Resource Development component targets to improve the qualifications of the personnel in all statistical offices of the national statistical system.

• Development of Statistical Infrastructure component addresses the improvement of the basic elements of the statistical infrastructure: statistical registers, sample frames, classifications and methodologies, statistical computer packages for analysis of survey data, and Geographical Information System (GIS) for statistical mapping.

• Data Development component will support the adaptation of internationally accepted standards and methodologies in data collection, compilation, and validation by GKS and other relevant agencies.

• Physical Infrastructure and Equipment component will support upgrading existing information technology (IT), transportation and other equipment that is essential to carry out existing and project activities.

• Project Management component will finance the project coordination unit that will manage the implementation of the project under GKS.

3

Which safeguard policies are triggered, if any? Ref. PAD D.6, Technical Annex 10 There is no safeguard issue triggered by the project. Significant, non-standard conditions, if any, for: Ref. PAD C.7 There is no significant, non-standard condition. Board presentation: This is a STATCAP project, which is approved by the regional Vice-President. No Board presentation required. Grant effectiveness: May 31, 2006 Covenants applicable to project implementation: Negotiations Condition The Project Operational Manual (POM) and Financial Management Action plan, all acceptable to IDA has been developed by the Recipient. Management approval condition The project counterpart account has been opened. The Financial Management system acceptable to IDA has been established. Effectiveness condition The Grant Agreement between the Republic of Tajikistan and IDA acting as the administrator of the funds provided by DFID and Sida has been executed. Project Coordination Team (PCT) with terms of reference, staff and resources, all acceptable to the Association has been established by the Recipient. Other covenants The Recipient shall maintain the project counterpart account in a commercial bank acceptable to IDA and regularly deposit to this account amounts sufficient to finance its counterpart contribution to the project.

1

A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE 1. Country and sector issues Country background. Tajikistan, a small economy with a population of 6.8 million and a GDP of US$2.1 billion, gained its independence in 1991. Shortly after independence, a civil war brought extensive physical damage and heavy human losses to the country. After reaching a peace accord in mid-1997 the Government turned its attention to governing and economic and social reforms. In fact, since the end of civil war Tajikistan has done remarkably well. Within the first few years after the war the Government established its control over the country and started concentrating on political consolidation and security. After achieving these, it focused on repairing and developing a war torn country that, even before the war, was among the poorest in the CIS. The cumulative growth of almost 60 percent of the economy over the last five years is quite impressive and demonstrates the Government’s success, even though the growth started from a very low base. The postwar recovery in productivity, especially in agriculture and expansion of services and construction fuelled by remittances from migrant workers significantly contributed to the economic growth in this period. This growth in economy has significantly helped the reduction of poverty, from 81% in 1999 to 64% in 2003. Tajikistan, however, still remains the poorest country in the ECA region and differences in poverty rate between oblasts (province) are still significant, ranging from 84% in Gorno-Badakhshan to 45% in Rayons under Republican Jurisdiction. National and sectoral strategies. The first PRSP of the country for 2003-2005 approved in June 2002 had focused primarily on: (i) encouraging equitable, labor-intensive and export-oriented economic growth, (ii) supporting efficient and fair provision of basic social services, (iii) targeting support to the poor, and (iv) improving governance and security. Currently the government is in the process of finalizing its long- and mid-term development strategies, National Development Strategy (NDS) for 2006-2015 and second PRSP for 2006-2008. The draft NDS, presented to the donor community in UN head-quarters in December 2005, identifies country’s national goal as “strengthening of political structures and achieving economic well-being and social welfare for the population of Tajikistan based on the principles of freedom, human dignity and equal opportunity for the realization of human potential”. NDS and PRSP2 priorities are stated as: (i) public administration reform, (ii) development of private sector and attracting new investments, and (iii) development of human potential. The program envisioned in the NDS/PRSP2 is information intensive and requires continuous monitoring of poverty and performances of various sub-sectors of the economy for developing policy measures to reduce poverty. These documents clearly state the importance of relevant and reliable statistical data and institutional and methodological framework of statistical system (especially in the social protection sphere) for the successful implementation, monitoring and evaluation of strategies. This is fully in line with recommendations of the first PRSP progress and joint staff assessment reports, which have emphasized the importance of improving statistical data, in particular related to poverty estimation, and monitoring and evaluation process.

2

Sector issues and strategy. Statistical issues in Tajikistan are governed by the Law on State Statistics, where the State Statistical Committee and its divisions at the local level are the public agencies in charge carrying out compilation, control, processing, analysis, aggregation, dissemination and storage of the statistical information. In March 2005 the Government approved the Multi-Year Integrated Statistical Plan (MISP)1, whose major strategic objectives are: (i) to upgrade Goskomstat’s methodological skills, (ii) automate its work across the board, (iii) meet the basic requirements for monitoring the macroeconomic situation and poverty, and (iv) fulfill other objectives required to meet the criteria of the IMF General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). Even though since the independence GKS has been trying to adopt standard international statistical methodologies and to remove old management structures, this transition has posed major challenges for GKS. For many decades prior to independence, GKS simply operated to trace the implementation of the government’s economic plan. The dramatic changes in the economic environment and the necessary adoption of techniques and procedures to monitor economic movements have exceeded the adaptation capability of the agency. As a result, there is now an increasing pressure on the national statistical system to produce and disseminate relevant statistics that meet internationally accepted standards. The critical issues to be addressed can be clustered in: (i) weak institutional capacity and inefficient organizational structure of the statistical system, (ii) ineffective institutional coordination between various statistical agencies and the GKS, (iii) lack of well developed human resources framework, (iv) inadequate analytical capability and qualifications of personnel of the statistical system, (v) weak statistical infrastructure, and (vi) poor physical and IT infrastructure. The GKS recently received funding from the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCB) for technical assistance to upgrade its capabilities. The project was successfully completed in 2005 and the MISP was developed for the whole national statistical system including relevant line ministries and agencies. The MISP provides a road map for the next five years. The Government has approved the MISP and been very supportive of its implementation which will significantly improve the capacity of GKS and other agencies that deal with data collection and dissemination. The results of the project will include a better legislative framework for statistical work, and better human skills, better equipment, and better data to monitor progress. These, in turn, will be of benefit to the government and people, but will also be of use to the Bank and other regional and international agencies in maintaining a policy dialogue with the government and in planning and implementing other projects and programs. 2. Rationale for Bank involvement The Bank possesses unique global expertise and necessary resources in developing and guiding comprehensive, integrated, and targeted projects on statistical capacity building. The Bank also

1 Resolution of the Government of Tajikistan from March 4, 2005, #90. Actually selection of MISP priority tasks was largely based on the three goals specified in the Paris 21 framework, namely on macroeconomic monitoring, monitoring of poverty, and other data priorities in the framework of the IMF’s GDDS.

3

has broad knowledge of the country’s development situation. Another important issue worth mentioning is that the Bank considers economy-wide perspective in its assistance to countries in their statistical capacity building activities, which involve almost all aspects of institutional development, infrastructure improvement, reorganization and human resource development. Further, the Bank has significant experience and knowledge in building country monitoring and evaluation systems, for which improvement of state statistical system is essential. Other donors and investors, without the same economy-wide perspective, are often unable to provide support for all aspects of institutional development, such as infrastructure costs and costs associated with reorganization and human resource development. In addition, the current Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) follows the results-based approach, thus this project will also help build national monitoring and evaluation capacity to assess the effectiveness of the country’s donor assistance strategies, poverty impact of the donor-funded Public Investment Program. Given that the limited IDA resources allocated for the country and enormous financial gap needed in dealing with the development challenges Tajikistan faces, the CPS emphasizes the catalytic role of the Bank in maximizing the overall impact. In this regard the Bank has a strong commitment and experience in such partnerships with other donors. In this project, the Bank plays a leading role in strengthening donor efforts in building statistical capacity in Tajikistan within the framework of the MISP. The CPS defines governance reform and state capacity building as the cross-cutting area of assistance to Tajikistan for fiscal years 2006-2009. In this regard the Government and Bank are now finalizing preparation of the Public Sector Reform Project (PSRP) and Policy Based Credit. PSRP will focus on supporting implementation of the Public Administration Reform Strategy, while PBC and the upcoming Poverty Reduction Strategy Credit (PRSC) will provide budget support to move the government structural reform agenda, mainly in public administration and social service delivery improvement, forward. Hence, the Bank’s support (through a long-term new instrument – STATCAP) to improve state statistics framework will significantly and effectively increase the development impact of the whole IDA assistance package to the public administration reform. 3. Higher level objectives to which the project contributes The project is in full conformity with the CPS and Government’s NDS/PRSP2 where priorities are set to ensure the achievement of the overall development goals and ranked in the order of importance, as:

• public administration reform; • development of private sector and attracting investments; • development of human potential.

The project will directly contribute to these priority areas by building an effective national statistical system that ensure timely and quality measurement of the progress and provides reliable statistical data that for the decision-making process. This is particularly important for the purpose of tracking progress of NDS/PSRP2 implementation as well as a number of MDG-based quantitative macroeconomic and social indicators selected by the Government. The project will

4

also directly contribute to the purpose of ensuring proper tracking and assessment of the county’s progress towards achievement of MDGs, which also influences the size of the donor assistance to Tajikistan. This work requires reliable and good quality social, demographic and economic data, hence a wide variety of information should be collected to provide a holistic view of poverty in the country. This will include: (i) qualitative and quantitative indicators; (ii) income/expenditure and access to services; and (iii) household, community/region and intra-household data. It should be noted that the data to be collected will not be limited with just poverty data, some other data will also be required such as labor force, growth, trade and prices. The quality of the monitoring exercise will depend vitally on the ability of the national statistical system, where GKS is the key player, to provide information. It should be noted that data collection, dissemination and use need to be on-going and regular activities that will allow evaluation of changes over time, but should not overly burden the capacity of the government to implement it. B. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1. Lending instrument This project will be a Specific Investment Loan, under the umbrella of the STATCAP Adaptable Program Lending to improve statistical capacity through a sector-wide approach, using the MISP as the basis for investments. STATCAP is designed to support a medium to long-term approach. To enter the STATCAP lending program borrowers need to fulfill certain eligibility criteria. The cornerstone of a STATCAP project is the development of a comprehensive and integrated national action plan for statistical capacity building, MISP, prior to the project. The MISP identifies strengths and weaknesses of the system, and contains necessary components to improve the system. Tajikistan has met all requirements of STATCAP and the project components are designed to support the implementation of the MISP, and will be implemented in a coherent, consistent and well-sequenced manner. 2. Project development objective and key indicators The main objective of the project is to improve efficiency and effectiveness of the National Statistical System to enable it to provide relevant, timely and reliable data for evidence-based policy making in support of Government’s poverty reduction strategies and the process of economic development. The principal outcome of this project will be a well functioning national statistical system that will significantly improve Government’s decision-making process by providing timely and accurate economic and social data. It will also help Government monitor progress towards national development goals, including the PRSP goals and the MDGs. The specific outputs of the project are:

• improved legal and institutional framework that will encourage statistical development; • improved physical and IT infrastructure; • strengthened human resources through training in statistical operations;

5

• improved statistical infrastructure through application of internationally accepted methodologies and data quality standards;

• developed statistical production system that continuously adapts to evolving needs of the society and economy through user-producer dialogues;

• institutionalized core statistical activities, including poverty monitoring; • increased output of reliable statistics by consolidating and strengthening existing surveys

and administrative sources, and by designing and conducting new data-generating activities; and

• timely dissemination, information-sharing, and the use of data for policy decisions. Achievement of the specific objectives of the project will support the overall goal by reducing the cost of information supply, increasing the demand, and making coordination of statistical activities, financing, and execution more effective. It will also help statistical agencies in line ministries through improved institutional interaction between statistical agencies and training of their relevant staff. These objectives are in full agreement with the MISP. Key performance indicators include the following:

• Increased user satisfaction relative to a baseline (including consultations, usefulness of products, etc).

• Greater use and interpretation of statistical information by economic actors; • Increased use of statistical information in government’s plans and programs; • Improved quality of statistics disseminated through various publications; • Improved quality of progress reports indicating increased availability and quality of

required statistical data; • The National statistical system increasingly conforms to the international standards with

regular updating and publication of the GDDS metadata in line with its recommendations.

Baseline data will be based on existing surveys and the surveys to be conducted in the first 6 months of the project. 3. Project components The project components are designed to support the implementation of the MISP, and will be implemented in a coherent, consistent and well-sequenced manner. The major components of the project are planned as: A. Institutional Development ($180,000) This component will support the improvement of the institutional capacity to carry out the formulation, coordination, and implementation of appropriate statistical policies and programs that will address to the needs of Tajikistan. It will support the review and improvement of existing legal framework and development of an institutional framework that will clearly define the interaction and dialog between GKS and relevant line ministries and statistical agencies. This component will also support the improvement of organizational structure of the national statistical system. Expected outputs will be improved statistical legislation and regulations that promote the effective production and use of data while guaranteeing the confidentiality of

6

individual records, as well as a better functioning organizational structure for the national statistical system. B. Human Resource Development ($530,000) The target is to improve the qualifications of the personnel in all statistical offices of the national statistical system. Training will be provided in basic and advanced methodologies and techniques, particularly those that support the priority indicators for MISP. Training should be in the form of seminars abroad and in the country, consultancies, and on the job training. There will also be substantial opportunity for staff to go on study tours, mostly to CIS countries, and to participate in international seminars. C. Development of Statistical Infrastructure ($1,040,000) In general, GKS inherited weak methodological skills from the Soviet period; inasmuch as sampling methods were not well developed under Soviet statistics and nearly all methodological decisions were made in Moscow. GKS therefore needs to build up the skills from a very low level in many respects. For each new area GKS needs to acquire necessary skills (classifications, sampling, seasonal adjustment, data quality) and will create a working group, which would include staff members from the methodology division but also from subject matter divisions that would be involve in this issues. Because of the risk of future staff turnover, these working groups will need to prepare methodological materials in writing and post them on the LAN, for use by other staff members as needed. Therefore, this component addresses the improvement of the basic elements of the statistical infrastructure: statistical registers, sample frames, classifications and methodologies, statistical computer packages for analysis of survey data, and Geographical Information System (GIS) for statistical mapping. D. Data Development ($1,290,000) This component will support the adaptation of internationally accepted standards and methodologies in data collection, compilation, and validation by GKS and other relevant agencies. It will also support further development of sectoral statistics on issues such as national accounts, price statistics, vital registration, health, education, poverty and living standards, employment, public finance, agriculture and transportation. E. Physical Infrastructure and Equipment ($1,725,000) This component will support upgrading existing IT, transportation and other equipment that is essential to carry out existing and project activities. Equipment to be financed includes transportation vehicles, computers and networking equipment, IT accessories, survey equipment and accessories, and office furniture and supplies used by GKS as well as line ministries. F. Project Management ($250,000) GKS will be the main executing agency of the project and will be responsible for its management. To effectively carry out the implementation and daily project administrative work, a project coordinator who is an expert in project management, a financial management specialist, a procurement specialist and an assistant will be hired by the executing agency. Specifically, this unit will coordinate project activities, manage reporting and auditing activities and ensure

7

compliance with the procurement, disbursement and financial management policies and procedures. Technical Annex 4 contains detailed descriptions of each component. 4. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design The most important lesson learned from previous assistance is the need for a more systematic approach, as in the MISP, instead of the piecemeal approach that was the case earlier. Statistical capacity building requires integrated and coordinated support that could take a long-term commitment. Previous experience from Tajikistan and other countries demonstrated that fragmented and uncoordinated capacity building activities do not result in sustainable improvements in statistical production and dissemination. Given that this project is based on MISP, it ensures that support will be provided to the whole national statistical system in a coordinated way. The project will also support specific measures to strengthen coordination, collaboration, networking, and information sharing among stakeholders. Another important lesson learned from previous capacity building project is that projects are often not sustainable once external support stops. This project emphasizes the ownership by the government and close coordination between all stakeholders. The Government contributes around 17 percent of the total cost of the project and included it in the NDS of Tajikistan, which will ensure its sustainability after the end of the project. Further, this project focuses on strengthening legal and institutional frameworks, improving human resources, and building necessary physical and statistical infrastructure. This will ensure that appropriate allocation from the budget and investments will be provided for the statistical system with the active involvement of a wide range of users and producers. As a result, new demand for high-quality data, stimulated by training, producer-user dialogue, and data dissemination, will provide an additional impetus for sustainability. The experience from the implementation of the previous statistical capacity building project funded by the TFSCB demonstrated that projects in Tajikistan can be implemented without creating a stand-alone project implementation unit. In the case of current project, the implementing agency, GKS, is very much committed and motivated that allows going for the “no-formal-PIU” option. However, given the still existing capacity constraints a small project coordination team consisting of local consultants will help relevant GKS staff in such project implementation issues as procurement, financial management and disbursements, monitoring and evaluation. Another important lesson worth mentioning is the twinning issue. Experience from various statistical capacity building projects implemented in other countries showed that a twinning arrangement between GKS and a western statistical office could be a better approach instead of hiring several consulting firms or individual consultants. In the long-term this could allow building lasting partnership that can go beyond the project life. The MAPS (Marrakech Action

8

Plan for Statistics) Advisory Board2 recommended greater use of statistical offices of developed countries through a twinning mechanism to help reduce the risk of implementation of capacity building projects that could be constrained by the lack of expertise and technical assistance. The Board also recommended raising this issue within the context of the OECD Statistics Committee and through EU within European statistical offices. 5. Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection There are three likely alternatives to the project that were considered during preparation. These are: • Providing support through a series of interventions aimed at improving specific areas of

statistics funded by various donors and international organizations. This was rejected because as discussed above piecemeal approaches do not provide sustainable solutions. Instead, all areas of the NSS need to be improved in a systematic and coordinated way. Supporting the implementation of the MISP ensures that the approach is country owned and country driven, and that activities are well coordinated and well sequenced.

• Providing support for only GKS instead of whole statistical system is another approach that was rejected because improvements are needed in all parts of the system, including line ministries and other producers and users of statistics.

• Another approach considered during the preparation is to provide support through existing projects and programs such as the PRS, PSRP or PBC. This was rejected because creating statistical capacity and providing necessary data will be the foundation for better programs and projects as well as for monitoring and evaluation. Otherwise, improvement of the national statistical system would be delayed.

C. IMPLEMENTATION 1. Partnership arrangements (if applicable) IDA has formed partnerships with donors to help the State Statistical Committee of Tajikistan implement the project. DFID and SIDA are main partners in this project and providing support in the mount of £600,000 and US$ 17.1 million Swedish Kroner, respectively. Both donors agreed on putting their contributions into a Bank managed trust fund for the implementation of the project. The Trust Fund for Strengthening the National Statistical System of Tajikistan (TF070386) has already been established. The Turkish International Cooperation Agency (TIKA) is also interested in supporting the project through providing training in various areas of statistics in Turkey as well as providing short and long-term experts. The implementation of the project will also be coordinated and monitored by all partners through joint mid-term reviews that were already included in the administration agreements with donor partners. EUROSTAT is another partner in the implementation of the project, although it does not make a direct contribution. EUROSTAT has allocated €300,000 for various activities to be implemented in 2006 that are closely linked to the activities of the project. Further, it will also allocate the 2 Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics, Minutes of the first meeting of the Advisory Board, October 26 and 27, 2005, Washington, D.C. Chaired by Jim Adams, Vice President, Operations and Country Services, World Bank. Document is in the project file.

9

same amount for 2007. The TTL has been closely coordinating all activities of the project from the very beginning with EUROSTAT. Further, the project team has also been coordinating project components with IMF, FAO, UNICEF and ADB to avoid duplication and increase effectiveness of the implementation. The TTL had meetings with all relevant partners from the beginning both in the field and here at the headquarters. 2. Institutional and implementation arrangements

Given the fact that the project is aimed at improving the statistical system of the country it will be required to ensure appropriate level of commitment and support of various government agencies and ministries. In order to ensure this, a Project Steering Committee (PSC) will be established by the Government. It is assumed that PSC will be a high level body that would meet twice a year and perform the following key functions:

Ensure efficient interdepartmental (inter-ministerial) interaction & resolving interdepartmental (inter-ministerial) issues;

Endorse project implementation plans; Exercise monitoring and evaluation of project progress on a semi-annual basis; Twice a year report to the Government on project implementation status and, if

necessary, propose improvement recommendations. GKS will be the main executing agency of the project and will be responsible for its overall management and implementation. To effectively carry out the implementation and daily project administrative work, there will be a project coordination team (PCT) of up to 5 persons. A project coordinator who is an expert in project management, a financial management specialist, a procurement specialist and an assistant will be hired by the GKS. Specifically, this unit will coordinate project activities, manage reporting and auditing activities and ensure compliance with the procurement, disbursement and financial management policies and procedures. All other aspects of the project would be implemented by relevant GKS staff with the assistance of local and international consultants. It is important to note that the project coordination team will not be a stand-alone PIU as it is the case in many other donor-funded projects. The PCT will be assisting GKS staff in implementing the project, but it will not implement the project itself. This is in line with the directions provided in the Paris donor conference on harmonization, Bank’s policy on project implementation arrangements and the joint GoT/WB/ADB CPPR recommendations. 3. Monitoring and evaluation of outcomes/results To track progress towards the desired outcomes, the project coordination team will assist GKS to regularly monitor a set of intermediate results indicators in accordance with the results framework specified in Annex 3. The benchmarks for these indicators will be obtained from the results of a baseline survey to be undertaken during the first year of the project implementation. GKS will monitor implementation of the project through quarterly financial management reports and annual audits and other reports on semi-annual basis. A joint midterm review will be carried

10

out by the government and development partners about two and a half years after the project becomes effective. This will provide an in-depth assessment of progress towards desired project outcomes and will recommend measures to reorient the project if needed to ensure that it will achieve its objectives. No later than four months after the grant closing date, the project coordination unit will prepare and provide to IDA a report on the execution of the project, its costs and the current and future benefits to be derived from it, to be attached to IDA’s Implementation Completion Memorandum (ICM) in accordance with IDA guidelines. A set of indicators of statistical capacity building developed by the PARIS21 consortium will be used to develop a monitoring baseline and for regular project monitoring. These indicators will be supplemented by information from the baseline survey mentioned above and other sources, including IMF Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes, IMF multi-sector statistical mission reports, surveys of users of statistical products, an independent assessment of statistical products against the master plan, audits of management, staff, facilities, human resource training and records and GDDS metadata. The evaluation will be carried out by an independent agency appointed by the implementing agency. Given the magnitude of spending associated with IT under the project, GKS agreed that the PCT would monitor progress of the IT investments in terms of cost and schedule. These are two key indicators of statistical agencies with regard to implementing IT. Variances in cost and schedules of IT will be reviewed at mid-term of the project. 4. Sustainability The recipient has shown a strong commitment to strengthening the capacity of national statistical system and has demonstrated its readiness to work on the project by preparing the MISP that was cleared and endorsed by the Government in March, 2005. The project is built on the foundations that have been laid with the grant the Bank has extended to GKS and there is strong ownership of it. The Government agreed on providing around 17 percent of the total project cost, which demonstrates its ownership of the project. Further, the government has also subscribed to the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) in late 2004, which provides guidelines for the production and release of statistical data. This is another indicator that the Government is committed to improving the national statistical system. The proposed twinning arrangement could also become an important factor in ensuring project sustainability. The twinning partner, a well established statistical agency from the developed countries, can provide a systematic and programmatic assistance to GKS in capacity building. In the long-run, GKS could become a twining partner (possibly in tandem) for other statistical offices of the region. Another important indicator that will ensure sustainability is the development of better user producer dialogue. By developing the users/producers dialogue and through the improvement of the data quality in the PRS and MDG context, the project will also increase the demand for statistics within the Government and the civil society.

11

Sustainability of this project would largely depend on the Government’s future commitment to provide budgetary support to supporting the statistical system. In approving the MISP and including the project in the National Strategy of Development of Tajikistan the Government committed to allocate necessary budget to support the national statistical system over a period that would go beyond the lifetime of this project. Sustainability of IT investments depends on adequate operation and maintenance of hardware, systems and software. It should initially be noted that, at whatever its level of funding in the past decade, GKS has with limited resources skillfully and efficiently maintained its existing base of 239 computers, 110 printers and a network at headquarters serving 52 computers. This equipment has lasted to the end of its depreciation cycle and far beyond. Sustainability of the IT investments will be promoted by trying to keep down projected operation and maintenance costs.. Detailed design and procurement specifications will take into account future operation and maintenance costs (possibly 5 years for servers, 3 years for workstations, and software licenses that will keep GKS’s software up to date with the latest upgrades). 5. Critical risks and possible controversial aspects

Risks

Risk Mitigation Measures

Risk Rating with Mitigation

To project development objective Insufficient political will to change statistical system’s institutional framework currently fitting the overall status-quo of the government. Attitude/commitment change towards the project in case of GKS management change. Commitment of other government agencies to support statistical work Capacity of GKS to sustain the development of the statistical system

Constant tracking of situation on the ground and maintaining of dialogue with the Government through the Country Office and field-based Task Team members. Training to high-level government officials on the need for evidence-based decision making and the need for ensuring of impartiality of statistical system. Close supervision and tracking of situation on the ground and maintaining of dialogue with the Government through the Country Office and field-based Task Team members. Timely training to GKS management and mid-level staff on project implementation, Bank-Government role, statistical system reform. Training of officials and data users in the use of statistics; improving data quality to promote value of statistics in monitoring and evaluating programs and projects. Revising the legal framework in order to enhance GKS’ central role

M

M

M

N

To component results

Absorption capacity of GKS and other statistical offices in line ministries is insufficient to implement the project Key, recruited or newly trained staff

Increase in the number and capacity of staff; creation of a project management unit.

M

12

Risks

Risk Mitigation Measures

Risk Rating with Mitigation

are not retained in the statistical system Activities and responsibilities of different statistical agencies are not coordinated

Improvement in the incentive structure and a remuneration scheme that better reflects staff performance and qualification. Establishment of a special carrier path for Government statisticians. Improved institutional framework that will ensure increased coordination and communication between statistical agencies.

M

M

Overall risk rating M

Risk Rating - H (High Risk), S (Substantial Risk), M (Modest Risk), N(Negligible or Low Risk) 6. Loan/credit conditions and covenants Negotiations Condition The Project Operational Manual (POM) and Financial Management Action plan, all acceptable to IDA has been developed by the Recipient. Management approval condition The project counterpart account has been opened. The Financial Management system acceptable to IDA has been established. Effectiveness condition The Grant Agreement between the Republic of Tajikistan and IDA acting as the administrator of the funds provided by DFID and Sida has been executed. Project Coordination Team (PCT) with terms of reference, staff and resources, all acceptable to the Association has been established by the Recipient. Other covenants The Recipient shall maintain the project counterpart account in a commercial bank acceptable to IDA and regularly deposit to this account amounts sufficient to finance its counterpart contribution to the project. D. APPRAISAL SUMMARY 1. Economic and financial analyses Economic. The Project is not amenable to a cost-benefit analysis as national statistical offices have hardly any significant cost recovery. The economic benefits from the project will derive from three main sources. First, improvements in the efficiency of statistical operations and agencies will result in broader coverage of and higher-quality data from given levels of

13

expenditure. Second, better data will enhance the potential for evidence-based decision making, at policy, program and project levels. Third, the project would help address the significant costs of missing or inaccurate data. Financial. National statistics are a public good and generally financed from tax revenue. There is only very limited potential for cost recovery, mainly through data dissemination. Therefore, only marginal financial returns are expected from this project. However, there can be a fiscal impact contributing to a better budgeting process and a potential increase in revenues due to better information and coverage, as well as a possible increase in recurrent costs to cover enhanced operations of the national statistical system. 2. Technical The technical design of the project is based on a detailed analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the national statistical system as provided in the MISP developed under the Bank’s assistance. The proposed developments in management of statistical agencies, statistical infrastructure, and statistical operations and the choice of technology are appropriate to the borrower’s needs and capabilities, as well as international good practice and standards. The specifications for equipment, including computing, communications and transportation equipment, will be reviewed by technical specialists and will be in line with the World Bank procurement practices and local requirements. 3. Fiduciary 3.1 Financial Management Issues. In December 2005 financial management arrangements for the proposed Strengthening the National Statistical System Project were assessed to determine whether the financial management arrangements put in place by the implementing agency, GKS, are acceptable to the Bank, and to monitor the process of strengthening the financial management system (FMS) in readiness for the proposed project. These financial management arrangements include systems of budgeting, accounting, financial reporting, auditing, and internal controls. GKS will have a computerized accounting system in place before the Bank approval of the proposed project. Chief Accountant of the GKS will take overall responsibility over proposed project Financial Management arrangements. However, GKS will hire a financial management specialist who will be responsible for the project related technical financial issues. Terms of reference for the consultant will be developed by the GKS and agreed with World Bank before launching the recruitment process. A Financial Management Action Plan has been developed, and will be agreed with GKS for establishment of a financial management system that meets requirements of the World Bank. Annual audits for the project accounts will be carried out in accordance with the Guidelines for Financial Reporting and Auditing of Projects Financed by the World Bank (June 2003). The guidelines require a single audit opinion on the project financial statements as a whole, which will include the Designated account Statement and the Statement of Expenditures used as the basis of withdrawing funds from the Grant Account.

14

3.2 Procurement Issues. General: Procurement for the proposed project will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s "Guidelines: Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits" dated May 2004; and "Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers" dated May 2004, and the provisions stipulated in the Grant Agreement. The various items under different expenditure categories are described below. For each contract to be financed by the Grant, the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, the need for pre-qualification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame are agreed between the Recipient and the Bank in the Procurement Plan. The Procurement Plan will be updated at least annually or as required to reflect actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. Procurement of Goods: Goods procured under this project would include: hardware and software to modernize the pilot ministries; equipment for electronic document system management information centre. For procurement of goods under the project, the following methods will be used: ICB, NCB, Shopping and Direct Contracting, when justified. The Bank’s Standard Bidding Documents (SBD) for ICB contracts will be used. Selection of Consultants: Consulting services from firms and individuals will be required. The following methods will be used for selecting firms and individuals whose services will be required for the project: Quality and Cost Based Selection (QCBS); Least Cost Selection (LCS); Selection Based on Consultants’ Qualifications (CQ), Individual Consultants (IC), and, where justified, Single Source Selection (SSS). Shortlist of consulting firms for services estimated to cost less than US$100,000 equivalent per contract may be composed entirely of national consultants in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 2.7 of the Guidelines. Training: Training is an important part of the project and will include project-related study tours, training courses, seminars, workshops and other training activities not included under goods or service providers’ contracts, including costs of training materials, space and equipment rental, travel and per diem costs of trainees and trainers. Operating Costs: Operating costs will include equipment for operation and maintenance, communications (e.g. email, telephone and fax), utilities, and office space rental costs. Operating costs will be incurred according to an annual budget satisfactory to the Bank and using procedures to be described in the Project Operational Manual. 4. Social It is expected that improved national statistical system will lead to improved social services delivery to the population, in particular to the poor in such areas as health, education and social protection. This is also underlined in the Government’s NDS. The project will also provide assistance to the relevant structures of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection in both statistical issues and evidence-based decision making in the determining government policy and spending for social protection, such unemployment benefits, pensions, transfers, etc.

15

5. Environment The project focuses on institutional reforms and capacity building of the national statistical system within the broad context of the in the governance system reform. It doesn’t have any direct environmental impact, and the project does not include any civil works. The project is therefore rated as ‘C’. Any minor refurbishments of office space required for the installation of equipment that are foreseen under the project will be executed in line with prevailing national legislation and all bidding documents will make reference to the need to carry out any works in line with prevailing environmental standards and safety regulations. 6. Safeguard policies

Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment (OP/BP/GP 4.01) [ ] [X] Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) [ ] [X] Pest Management (OP 4.09) [ ] [X] Cultural Property (OPN 11.03, being revised as OP 4.11) [ ] [X] Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) [ ] [X] Indigenous Peoples (OD 4.20, being revised as OP 4.10) [ ] [X] Forests (OP/BP 4.36) [ ] [X] Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) [ ] [X] Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP/GP 7.60)* [ ] [X] Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP/GP 7.50) [ ] [X]

7. Policy Exceptions and Readiness This project complies with all applicable Bank policies. The Project is entirely consistent with Bank Policy and no exceptions are requested.

* By supporting the proposed project, the Bank does not intend to prejudice the final determination of the parties' claims on the disputed areas

16

Annex 1: Country and Sector or Program Background

TAJIKISTAN: Strengthening the National Statistical System Country background. Tajikistan, a small economy with a population of 6.8 million and a GDP of US$2.1 billion, gained its independence in 1991. Shortly after independence, a civil war brought extensive physical damage and heavy human losses to the country. After reaching a peace accord in mid-1997 the Government turned its attention to governing and economic and social reforms. In fact, since the end of civil war Tajikistan has done remarkably well. Within the first few years after the war the Government established its control over the country and started concentrating on political consolidation and security. After achieving these, it focused on repairing and developing a war torn country that, even before the war, was among the poorest in the CIS. The cumulative growth of almost 60 percent of the economy over the last five years is quite impressive and demonstrates the Government’s success, even though the growth started from a very low base. The postwar recovery in productivity, especially in agriculture and expansion of services and construction fuelled by remittances from migrant workers significantly contributed to the economic growth in this period. This growth in economy has significantly helped the reduction of poverty, from 81% in 1999 to 64% in 2003. Tajikistan, however, still remains the poorest country in the ECA region and differences in poverty rate between oblasts (province) are still significant, ranging from 84% in Gorno- Badakhshan to 45% in Rayons under Republican Jurisdiction. Sector issues. The transition from a centrally planned to a market oriented economy has brought rapid changes in all areas of economic and social life of Tajikistan. The social and economic reforms of recent years have changed the environment in which the statistics must function. A system is now needed for collecting economic information based on structured methods that are used in countries with a market economy. As a result, statistical offices at all levels have been obliged to reform the system of collecting and processing data and delivering it to users. Therefore since independence, the nature of the tasks of the GKS had to undergo significant changes. The legal basis for the collection, compilation and dissemination of the statistical information is the Law on State Statistics of the Republic of Tajikistan, adopted in May 1997 and amended in April 2003, to reflect the new status of the GKS as an independent state statistics committee. The law includes provisions for all statistical agencies of Tajikistan but assigns GKS the leading role in production and dissemination of statistical information. The upgraded status of GKS to a statistical committee as well as its composition and responsibilities were spelled out also in the Government Decision of February 2001. In recent years, a number of government-led processes have had a major impact on statistical requirements for Tajikistan. First, on March 24, 2000, the President of Tajikistan established a working group to prepare a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), in conjunction with government efforts to improve the living standards of the population and to solve social/economic problems. A draft PRSP was prepared by October 2000. This document was discussed with international organization and further elaborated during 2000-03. International organizations that participated in the process included the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB) and UN Development Program (UNDP),

17

among others. The PRSP was approved on 21 May 2003 by Presidential decree #1080, which laid down the main elements of the country’s transition strategy to a fully market-based economy and to reduce poverty by accelerating economic growth. The strategy envisioned in the PRSP is information intensive and requires continuous monitoring of poverty and performances of various sub-sectors of the economy for developing policy measures to reduce poverty. The document mentions the importance of obtaining relevant and reliable statistical data for the monitoring and assessment of the strategy, and for providing a basis for the successful implementation. Sub-sequent PRSP progress reports and joint staff assessment reports emphasize the importance of statistical data in the poverty reduction and monitoring and evaluation of results. Monitoring and evaluation, based primarily on statistical data, were to constitute key elements of the strategy, which will enable policymakers to:

• Follow the progress of the strategy and measure the extent to which objectives are being met during implementation;

• Identify current problems and ways to solve them; • Update objectives at each stage of implementation.

Second major initiative led by the Government is the monitoring of Millennium Development Goals, which gave additional responsibilities to GKS. In order to provide a basis for the monitoring of MDGs the GKS has been cooperating with all relevant public institutions, as well as with international agencies (UNDP, UN, and WB). The first MDG progress report was prepared in cooperation with GKS in 2003. Third activity that GKS involved in and played a major role on was the preparatory work to participate in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) of the IMF. This activity started in 2004 after the IMF reviewed GKS data and prepared the Report on Observing the Standards and Codes (ROSC). Authorized agencies that are responsible for the corresponding GDDS indicators were GKS (system coordinator in the Republic of Tajikistan), Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Tajikistan. These agencies prepared metadata for the GDDS indicators and in August 2004 delivered a draft of the metadata to the IMF Statistics Department, together with an application for Tajikistan to join the GDDS and on November 17, 2004 formally participated in the GDDS. In the light of above discussion, it was obvious that the first step towards preparing a medium-term macroeconomic framework and poverty reduction strategy would be to strengthen the national statistical system with a view of transforming it into a tool that can generate reliable statistical data. As a first step towards modernization in 2000, GKS announced a 3-year “Integrated Reform Program” for statistics, which was coincided with the Government’s 3-year plan of economic reform. The Government approved the Program that included such aspirations, including:

• Raising staff qualifications • Application of modern technology in the collection and processing of data. • Application of modern sampling methods • Broad use of scientifically-based statistical methodologies for estimates and calculations • Documentation of metadata for the public

18

Many of the tasks described in the plan were fulfilled or partially fulfilled. Some of them were not completed due to lack of funding. Fourth, in May 2005 the President has established a Coordination Committee chaired by the Prime-minister to develop and monitor implementation of Government’s new long- and mid-term strategies, the National Development Plan for 2006-2015 and the second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. The NDS identifies country’s national goal as “strengthening of political structures and achieving economic well-being and social welfare for the population of Tajikistan based on the principles of freedom, human dignity and equal opportunity for the realization of human potential”. NDS and PRSP2 priorities are (1) public administration reform, (2) development of private sector and attracting investments, and (3) development of human potential. The draft NDS was presented in New York at UN head-quarters in December last year and the Government is about to finalize both strategic documents. Given the obvious need for statistical data and capacity to process and analyze it GKS was given the responsibility of the secretariat of the Coordination Committee. The NDS implementation tracking is based on the range of quantitative indicators, for whose management GKS will be made responsible. Even though since the independence GKS has been trying to adopt standard international statistical methodologies and to remove old management structures, this transition has posed major challenges for GKS. For many decades prior to independence, statistics simply operated to trace the implementation of the government’s economic plan. The dramatic changes in the economic environment and the necessary adoption of techniques and procedures to monitor economic movements have exceeded the adaptation capability of the agency. As a result, there is now an increasing pressure on the national statistical system to produce and disseminate relevant statistics that meet internationally accepted standards. The critical issues to be addressed are:

• Weak institutional capacity and inefficient organizational structure of the statistical system hinder undertaking efficient statistical operations.

• Ineffective institutional coordination between various statistical agencies and the GKS and lack of an effective dialog between data users and producers create discrepancies between data supply and data needs.

• Lack of well developed human resources framework and proper job definitions prevent upward mobility and hence reduce the incentives for the staff.

• Inadequate analytical capability and qualifications of personnel of the statistical system prevent adaptation of advance methodologies and techniques for collection, analysis and dissemination of data as well as the use of existing economic and social data

• Weak statistical infrastructure hinders institutionalizing the core statistics the national statistical system produces, such as censuses and surveys.

• Weak physical and IT infrastructure reduces efficiency of the system and creates significant time lag between data collection and dissemination.

19

This project will strengthen the capacity of the national statistical system to generate reliable, timely, and relevant statistical data to support and monitor development and poverty reduction. The results of the project will include a better legislative framework for statistical work, and better human skills, better equipment, and better data to monitor progress. The data will be of benefit to the government and people, but will also be of use to the Bank and other regional and international agencies in maintaining a policy dialogue with the government and in planning and implementing other projects and programs.

20

Annex 2: Major Related Projects Financed by the Bank and/or other Agencies

TAJIKISTAN: Strengthening the National Statistical System

Project Sector Issue Latest ISR rating or OED Evaluation Rating for closed

Projects; Implementation Status for non-Bank Projects

World Bank 1999 Survey of Living Standards

A survey at sample of 2000 households was conducted ($150,000) focusing on: Capacity building of GKS in preparing, conducting and analyzing the survey results, and Provision of technical equipment (PCs).

Done jointly with UNDP. Implemented successfully.

2003 Survey of Living Standards

Second survey of living standards at 4160 households ($132,000) focusing on: Capacity building of GKS in preparing, conducting and analyzing the survey results, and Provision of technical equipment (PCs).

Implemented successfully. Results used by the Bank, GoT and the donor community.

Strengthening of national statistics program

Multi-donor trust fund ($353,000) focusing on: • Institutional and statistical diagnoses,

preparation of strategic plan; • Strengthening of the system of national

accounts; • Surveys for tracing expenses in health and

education sectors; • Conducting a household labor force survey for

the first time; Equipment- $69,000, including 2 risographs, 2 servers, 20 computers and several hubs.

Closed in time and implemented successfully.

Donors Technical assistance and education support (200,000 ECU) to GKS in 1993-1994 focused register of enterprise statistics of enterprises statistics of external trade.

Implemented by EUROSTAT. TACIS

Program Reforms in the Sector of Official Statistics of the Republic of Tajikistan (EUR250,000) in 1999. The program focused:

• Register of enterprises • Enterprise statistics • Statistics of external trade • Publication and dissemination of statistical data

Price index for construction

Implemented by EUROSTAT.

Statistics-8 program (300,000 Euro) focusing on agricultural statistics, business registers, classifications and information, communications and transportation statistics

Will be implemented by EUROSTAT.

ADB In 2002 survey of poverty indicators ($360,000) on sample of 6000 households. The initiative focused on: focusing on: capacity building of GKS in preparing, conducting and analyzing the survey results, and provision of technical equipment and software.

Implemented successfully.

21

Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring

TAJIKISTAN: Strengthening the National Statistical System

Results Framework PDO Project Outcome Indicators Use of Project Outcome

Information The development objective is to improve efficiency and effectiveness of the National Statistical System to enable it to provide relevant, timely and reliable data for evidence-based policy making.

Access to information/ dissemination 1. Rate of user satisfaction

significantly increases by EOP 2. Targeted Statistical products are

easily accessible in relevant media with metadata and interpretation of findings.

Coverage/ Accuracy / Reliability: 3. Data sources are sound and

relate to the targeted coverage. 4. Increase in survey response

rates 5. Regular validations are carried

out for data sources and statistical products; acceptable statistical techniques in the process of data collection, compilation and authenticity verification are efficiently and effectively applied.

6. Some key statistical indicators, such as the estimation of the shadow economy, number of labor migrants and remittances, real estate inflation, birth and death statistics became more reliable, timely, precise and compatible with internationally accepted standards.

Timeliness: 7. Time lag between data

collection and dissemination was reduced significantly.

8. Statistical outputs are released within the time limits and with frequency meeting GDDS requirements

Years 1–5: GKS management and Project Coordinator will monitor progress in establishing intermediate indicators and take action if these are not being satisfactorily implemented. Progress towards project outcomes will be reported twice a year and compared with baseline data. There will be joint mid-term reviews with participation of all donors that will be carried out in the third year possibly in November. Year 4: No improvement in these outcomes may indicate that the project components and the implementation strategy need to be re-examined.

Intermediate Outcomes Intermediate Outcome Indicators Use of Intermediate Outcome Monitoring

1. Adequate policy, legal and regulatory framework as well as effective institutional framework, management and human resources

1.1 Statistical legislation and regulations are in place for institutional, legal and regulatory framework and

Years 1–5: Action will be taken to either ensure that these are put into place or to redesign the project to

22

for statistics are in place

safeguarding confidentiality of source data

1.2 Mechanisms for effective inter-agency coordination are established and operational. Duplication of data collection among agencies is eliminated at national and regional level. Increased volume of data received through administrative channels.

1.3 Mechanisms for effective dialogue with the data users and providers are operational.

1.4 Management Information Systems (MIS) are used for strategy planning, work programs, accounting. MIS are used for proper maintenance and use of computer and communication systems.

1.5 Staff use and upkeep acquired skills.

1.6 GKS central and local level structure optimized and staff trained.

1.7 Staff of statistic related units of ME, MH, MoJ, MSLP, MET, MF trained.

correct deficiencies. Year 5: These results are compared with baseline data to evaluate the project outcome.

2. Statistical infrastructure developed and made operational

2.1 Business register compiled and being maintained and used.

2.2 Required international economic and social classifications adapted.

2.3 Cost effective and efficient methods used for statistical operation.

2.4 Standard questionnaire for survey conducting developed and applied.

Years 1–5: Action will be taken to either ensure that these are put into place or to redesign the project to correct deficiencies. Year 5: These results are compared with baseline data to evaluate the project outcome.

3. Main statistical agencies have developed/upgraded and put into operation their core statistical programs including surveys.

3.1 Internationally accepted standards and methodologies are used in data production

3.2 Targeted surveys conducted, thematic statistical data are developed and results disseminated

Years 1–5: Action will be taken to either ensure that these are put into place or to redesign the project to correct deficiencies. Year 5: These results are compared with baseline data to evaluate the project outcome.

4. Investment in physical infrastructure and equipment to facilitate the production and dissemination of data by statistical agencies are undertaken and

4.1 Capacity for physical operations is adequate and well maintained

4.2 At least 75% of staff at each unit at GKS headquarters have workstations with direct access

Years 1–5: Action will be taken to either ensure that these are put into place or to redesign the project to correct deficiencies.

23

adequately maintained.

to databases for analysis and tabulation, and 60% of field staff have workstations

4.3 Cost or schedule variances in IT do not exceed 10%.

Year 5: These results are compared with baseline data to evaluate the project outcome.

24

Arrangements for results monitoring Target Values Data Collection and Reporting

Project Outcome Indicators

Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 YR5 Frequency and

Reports

Data Collection

Instruments

Responsibility for Data

Collection Access to information/ dissemination 1. Rate of user

satisfaction significantly increased by EOP

2. Targeted

Statistical products are easily accessible in relevant media with metadata and interpretation of findings

Activities conducted are insufficient. There are no skills to evaluate quality of data. It is necessary to conduct regular surveys among users on data quality, conduct training courses, seminars Prepare measures – technical notes on every data series, check-up databases, etc. Activities are being conducted, but additional actions are needed. Web-site of GKS is created and maintained, including metadata. There is a need to improve this Web-site, improve the process of preparation and production of

Preparatory activities Preparation of action plan.

20% Conduct users' survey. Preparation of actions. Training courses 40% Training, Web-site updating. Preparatory activities for the issue of information on CD. Development of marketing.

40% Conduct users' survey. Training courses 60% Training Metadata, Explanation of conclusions Updated Web-site

80% Continue activities. Increase satisfaction 90% Issue of publications with explanations and metadata

100% Significantly increased rate of user satisfaction 100% Increased accessibility through the mass media

Twice a year

Survey, independent assessment, audit, etc.

GKS and PCT

25

Coverage/ Accuracy / Reliability: 3. Data sources

are sound and relate to the targeted coverage.

4. Increase in

survey response rates

5. Regular

validations are carried out for data sources and statistical products. Apply efficient and

publications, presentation of electronic information (CD). Develop marketing. There are problems of insufficient methodology, lack of information on non-observed economy. Insufficient investments into IT. Work is being conducted although still there are problems of non-respondents, standardization, and simplification of questionnaires, interaction with other producers. Verification takes place, it is necessary to increase skills, and improve methodology

Preparatory activities Preparatory activities Training, authenticity verifications

30% Training. Conducting surveys, coverage check-ups. Training. Master questionnaire preparation. Analysis of existing reporting. Training. Authenticity verification. Conduct of surveys.

50% Training, IT in central office and MCC, expansion of IT to regions Training, conducting surveys Continuation of activities

80% Continued activities on data sources reliability assessment Improvement of data sources check-up

100% Overall assessment of data reliability and coverage Increase ratio of information submission Regularly conducted check-ups based on improved methodology

26

acceptable statistical techniques in the process of data collection, compilation, and authenticity verification.

6. Some key

statistical indicators, such as the estimation of the shadow economy, number of labor migrants and remittances, real estate inflation, birth and death statistics became more reliable, timely, precise and compatible with internationally accepted standards.

Timeliness: 7. Time lag

between data collection and dissemination was reduced significantly.

Implementation of international standards is slow. Mainly due to the lack of experts, lack of experience of work on new directions, due to the absence of special surveys or permanent-based surveys because of limited budget. Lack of necessary IT infrastructure at regional level. Only 10-15% of reports are

Trainings. International consultant’s assistance. Special surveys. Preparatory activities

Training, international consultant’s assistance. Conduct special surveys. Introduction of IT in central office and MCC, training

Training, international consultant’s assistance. Conduct special surveys. Introduction of IT at regional level, training

Data are compatible with international standard Automation of data processing, creation of databases

Timely submission of reliable data Reduction of time lag between data collection and dissemination

27

8. Statistical

outputs are released within the time limits and with frequency meeting

processed at the MCC computers, using software. Regional offices manually prepare data and send them to MCC through teletype or mail, sometimes by courier. It seldom happens that primary data are sent to MCC for the entrance into computers and creation of databases. Existing equipment for data transfer and communication equipment are outdated. Poor quality of telephone connection with oblasts and rayons sometimes detains statistical information. Practically, there is no electronic communication with regions. In majority, we meet requirements of GDDS; it is necessary to continue activities in SDDS direction

Continue GDDS activities. SNS expert

Training, switching to quarterly reporting

100% submission of statistical data at GDDS

Entrance into SDDS

Submission of statistical data at SDDS

28

GDDS requirements

on submission of information on discrete basis.

Intermediate Outcome Indicators

1.1 Statistical legislation and regulations are in place for institutional, legal and regulatory framework and safeguarding confidentiality of source data

1.2 Mechanisms

for effective inter-agency coordination are established and operational. Duplication of data collection among agencies is eliminated at national and regional level. Increased volume of processing of data received through administrative channels.

1.3 Mechanisms

Introduced partially, requires changes GKS coordinates statistical activities and collection of official data. But, there was no comprehensive evaluation of existing departmental and centralized statistical reporting conducted in terms of usefulness of data collected, identification of non-needed information and duplication.

Consulting services, introduction of changes into legislation and regulations. Consulting services on master questionnaire design.

Drafting of new package of legislation and regulations and submission to authorities for consideration and approval Training, overall assessment of existing reporting, preparation of new album of statistical reporting forms.

Implementation Training, elimination of data duplication. Implementation

Implementation Implementation and effective interagency coordination

Effective interagency coordination

Twice a year

Survey, independent assessment, audit, etc.

GKS and PCT

29

for effective dialogue with the data users and providers are operational.

1.4 Management

Information Systems are used for strategy planning, work programs, accounting. MIS are used for appropriate servicing and utilization of computer and telecommunication systems.

1.5 Staff use and

upkeep acquired skills.

1.6 GKS central

and local level structure optimized and staff trained.

Underdeveloped. No user needs survey was conducted. Are not used. Mainly, keeping up of skills takes place through the participation at international seminars, trainings, if they are paid by international organizations. Optimization was not conducted. Local level staff is trained by

Preparatory activities Consulting services Consulting services, training , maintaining and use of acquired skills at 20%. Consulting services, training

Conducting users' survey Preparation of mechanisms. 20% Training. IT implementation. Consulting services, training , maintaining and use of acquired skills at 40% Consulting services, training

Conducting users' survey Preparation of mechanisms. Training courses 60% Training, Introduction of IT Consulting services, training , maintaining and use of acquired skills at 60% Training of staff. 60% optimization of organizational structure of

Analysis of surveys, development of mechanisms, training 90% implementation of Management Information Sys