The Wiki and the BlogNIH Wiki Fair

D. Calvin Andrus

Chief Technology OfficerCenter for Mission Innovation

Central Intelligence Agency

28 February 2007

28 February 2007 2

Battle of New Orleans

28 February 2007 3

Operation Iraqi Freedom

28 February 2007 4

Intelligence - Policy Time Compression

28 February 2007 5

Arms Race v.s. “Times” Race

• Rapid responses are required to maintain tactical and strategic advantages over those who would do the United States harm

28 February 2007 6

Rapid Turnover and Genetic Research

Family: DrosophilidaeMaturity: 14 DaysGestation: 10 DaysOffspring: 500

Family: ElephantidaeMaturity: 11 YearsGestation: 22 MonthsOffspring: 1

28 February 2007 7

Rapid Policy Turnover and Intelligence

Cold War

Global Waron Terrorism

28 February 2007 8

We Must Adapt to Change

The US National Security Community—and the Intelligence Community within it—is faced with the issue of how to operate in a security environment that, by its nature, is changing rapidly in ways we cannot predict.

A simple answer is that the Intelligence Community,

by its nature, must change rapidly in ways we

cannot predict.

28 February 2007 9

Allow Learning to Change Us

• We must transform the Intelligence Community into a community that dynamically reinvents itself by continuously learning and adapting as the national security environment changes.

28 February 2007 10

Begin Detour Here . . .

• On our way to suggesting an answer, let us

consider the ideas of those who have already

wrestled with similar issues . . .

28 February 2007 11

What do These Have in Common?

Alan Turing, 1912-1954Ant Hill

Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand

FractalsThe Butterfly Effect

General System Theory

28 February 2007 12

Complexity Theory

• They are all examples of a extremely diverse body of thought that has recently been codified as Complexity Theory.

• Complex Adaptive Behavior is a basic tenet of this theory and is characterized by:– Cooperative individual behavior– Emergence of a community– Adaptation to feedback

28 February 2007 13

Complex Adaptive Behavior

28 February 2007 14

Complexity Theory Suggests. . .

. . . that from intelligence officers who are allowed to share information and act upon it within a simple tradecraft regime will emerge an intelligence community that continuously and dynamically reinvents itself in response to the needs of the national security environment.

28 February 2007 15

Technology Can Enable

Complex Adaptive

Behavior in Human

Knowledge Workers

28 February 2007 16

One Model to Follow . . .

28 February 2007 17

Wiki Home Page

28 February 2007 25

Soggy Sweat

28 February 2007 26

Discussion

28 February 2007 27

Talk Update

28 February 2007 28

Sweat Update

28 February 2007 29

Capabilities Wikis Bring

• Because Wikis are real-time, self-authored, hyperlinked bodies of knowledge that are open to everyone on the system, they can adapt as fast as a person can enter information.

• With the addition of – knowledgebase, – search, and – feedback tools,

contributors can know--in real time--how the knowledge is received, and thus can make adjustments--in real time.

28 February 2007 30

Standing on Giants

If I have been able to see further, it was only

because I stood on the shoulders of giants.

Wikis can provide a space for our

Intelligence giants to walk . . . and for

them to stand on each other’s

shoulders in near real time.

28 February 2007 31

The Technology Stack

28 February 2007 32

Social Value of Technology

28 February 2007 33

Metcalfe and Disruption

• Robert Metcalfe, inventor of the Ethernet protocol and founder of 3Com, asserted that the value of a communication system grows as approximately the square of the number of nodes of the system.

– Andrus’s corollary is that the value of a web space (wikis and blogs) grows as the square of the number of links created in the web space.

• Once a critical mass is reached, new social, political, and economic systems start to emerge. This is what authors Downes and Mui call the Law

of Disruption. Larry Downes and Chunka Mui (1998) Unleashing the Killer App: Digital Strategies for Market Dominance. Cambridge, MA.

Harvard Business School Press.

Metcalfe's LawY = X*(X-1)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701 801 901 1001

Number of Nodes

Value

28 February 2007 34

Page Rank

28 February 2007 35

Critical Mass (as of 2/11/07)

28 February 2007 36

New IC Emerges Through Links

28 February 2007 37

Intellipedia

28 February 2007 38

A Space to Grow

• By deploying wikis on classified networks, and granting access to all comers, we put the Foreign Policy, Defense, National Security, and Intelligence Communities together. Knowledge and feedback is shared by all.

» Thus, changes in the National Security environment can be learned by the Intel Community, which in turn, can adapt

» From simple local interactions, a global community emerges

28 February 2007 39

Intellipedia

28 February 2007 40

Behavior Changes

28 February 2007 41

In Conclusion

• Technology is the enabler, not the solution

• The solution is changing the culture to allow intelligence

officers to share and act -- with simple rules of

engagement

• The IC/CMS must build an incentive

and reward structure for those

components that adopt this

new model of doing business

28 February 2007 42

The End

28 February 2007 43

Backup Slides Follow

28 February 2007 44

Feedback Examples

28 February 2007 45

• Two examples of self-organizing websites that allow expertise to play a deciding role are– Slashdot– Experts Exchange

For X = min to max, step For Y = min to max, step For counter = min to limit, step 1 C = X + Y Z(counter+1) = Z(counter) * Z(counter) + C If Z(counter+1) > threshold then next counter else plot X,Y with color (counter) and go to next Y If counter=limit then plot X,Y with color (black) Next YNext X

Mandelbrot Fractal AlgorithmZ(n+1) = Z(n)^2 + C, where C = X+Y