11
Washington metro area housing market conditions improved modestly during the 4th quarter of 2014. Average sales prices and aggregate sales volume increased metro-wide, but at a much slower pace compared to one year earlier. Deceleration in price growth and sales volume was a trend for 2014 overall, as was increasing inventory. The rise in average days on market for each quarter of 2014 further suggests that the regional housing market recovery is slowing. 4th quarter prices: Up 4.0% during the 4th quarter 2014 compared to 4th quarter 2013. Unit volume: Up 1.9% from last year at this time. Days on market: Up 9 days over the year to 58 days but still below the 10-year average of 63 days. Months of inventory: Up 0.3 months from the sales pace at 4th quarter 2013. The national economy is gaining traction and an easing of lending standards by Federal lending agencies will support the broader housing market in the period ahead. However, impediments such as modest job creation and weak wage growth will likely keep the region’s housing market performance sluggish in early 2015. For current housing market indicators, see Figure 1. RATE OF PRICE GROWTH DECELERATING The average price of a Washington-area home sold in the 4th quarter of 2014 was $466,216 — an increase of 4.0% from one year earlier. There was a noticeable slowdown from 2013’s overall increase of 8.0% as home prices in Washington increased only 3.1% for all of 2014. Price gains are likely to decelerate as the number of active listings in the MARKET INDICATORS Washington Metro Area | At 4 th Quarter 2014 | Figure 1 CHANGE VS. Q3 2014 CHANGE VS. Q4 2013 Q4 AVG. SALES PRICE $466,216 0.9% 4.0% Q4 SALES (UNITS) 14,409 13.7% 1.9% Q4 AVG. DAYS ON MARKET 58 12 9 SALES PACE* 2.4 Months 1.4 Months 0.3 Months Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Sales pace at December 2014. Pace is ratio of total for-sale inventory to current month’s sales. YEAR-END 2014 DELTA ASSOCIATES WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK SPONSORED BY 1 DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET C E Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship

THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

Washington metro area housing market conditions improved modestly

during the 4th quarter of 2014. Average sales prices and aggregate sales

volume increased metro-wide, but at a much slower pace compared to

one year earlier. Deceleration in price growth and sales volume was a

trend for 2014 overall, as was increasing inventory. The rise in average

days on market for each quarter of 2014 further suggests that the

regional housing market recovery is slowing.

• 4th quarter prices: Up 4.0% during the 4th quarter 2014 compared

to 4th quarter 2013.

• Unit volume: Up 1.9% from last year at this time.

• Days on market: Up 9 days over the year to 58 days but still below

the 10-year average of 63 days.

• Months of inventory: Up 0.3 months from the sales pace at 4th

quarter 2013.

The national economy is gaining traction and an easing of lending

standards by Federal lending agencies will support the broader housing

market in the period ahead. However, impediments such as modest job

creation and weak wage growth will likely keep the region’s housing

market performance sluggish in early 2015. For current housing

market indicators, see Figure 1.

RATE OF PRICE GROWTH DECELERATING

The average price of a Washington-area home sold in the 4th quarter

of 2014 was $466,216 — an increase of 4.0% from one year earlier.

There was a noticeable slowdown from 2013’s overall increase of 8.0%

as home prices in Washington increased only 3.1% for all of 2014. Price

gains are likely to decelerate as the number of active listings in the

MARKET INDICATORS Washington Metro Area | At 4th Quarter 2014 | Figure 1

CHANGE VS. Q3 2014

CHANGE VS. Q4 2013

Q4 AVG. SALES PRICE $466,216 0.9% 4.0%

Q4 SALES (UNITS) 14,409 13.7% 1.9%

Q4 AVG. DAYS ON MARKET 58 12 9

SALES PACE* 2.4 Months 1.4 Months 0.3 Months

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Sales pace at December 2014. Pace is ratio of total for-sale inventory to current month’s sales.

YEAR-END 2014

DELTA ASSOCIATES

WASHINGTON AREA

HOUSING OUTLOOK

SPONSORED BY

1DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET

Center for Real Estate

EntrepreneurshipCenter for Real Estate

Entrepreneurship

Page 2: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

2DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

region increases. This slowdown in price growth could, however, ease

the affordability obstacle for potential Washington area home buyers,

helping boost the demand for housing in the near term.

The Core Jurisdictions of the District of Columbia, Alexandria, and

Arlington counties experienced the greatest price increase among the

sub-areas. The average price of homes in the Core Jurisdictions was

7.5% higher than at 4th quarter 2013, at $614,889.

• The District: average home prices spiked 7.7% from a year earlier.

• Arlington: home prices increased 5.6% compared with prices at this

time last year.

• Alexandria: prices rose 8.3% from a year ago.

The Washington area’s Inner Ring of Fairfax, Montgomery, and

Prince George’s counties (including Falls Church and Fairfax cities)

experienced a price increase of 2.3% from a year earlier; the average

price at 4th quarter 2014 was $444,680.

• Prince George’s: average prices in the 4th quarter climbed 12.5%

from the average a year earlier.

• Montgomery County: home prices declined 1.5% from year-end

2013.

• Fairfax County: prices increased 2.3% compared with prices from

a year earlier.

In the Washington area’s Outer Suburbs of Prince William, Loudoun

and Frederick counties prices were 3.3% higher than a year earlier;

the average price at 4th quarter 2014 was $382,214. See Figures 2 and 3.

• Prince William County: average prices are 4.7% higher than a year

earlier.

• Loudoun County: the average sales price in the 4th quarter of 2014

was 4.1% higher than the average a year earlier.

• Frederick County (MD): average home prices slightly declined 0.2%

from one year earlier.

SALES VOLUME UP BUT RATE OF INCREASE IS SLOWING

Unit volume sold in the 4th quarter of 2014 increased 1.9% from a year

earlier. Robust sales in December helped Washington rebound from

eleven consecutive months of year-over-year sales declines. Though

sales bounced back at year-end, overall sales gains in 2014 slowed,

HOME PRICES BY SUB -AREA* Washington Metro Area | At 4th Quarter 2014 | Figure 2

SUB-AREA* CHANGE VS.

Q3 2014 CHANGE VS.

Q4 2013

Core $614,889 2.6% 7.5%

Units 3,096 7.0% 2.1%

Inner $444,680 4.1% 2.3%

Units 7,661 14.6% 1.2%

Outer $382,214 1.2% 3.3%

Units 3,443 16.2% 4.2%

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Core: DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner: Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax City, Falls Church. Outer: Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick.

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Core

Inner

Outer

HOME SALES AVERAGE PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro by Sub-Area* | 2005 – 2014 | Figure 3

12

-MO

NT

H T

RA

ILIN

G A

VE

RA

GE

P

RIC

E C

HA

NG

E

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Core: DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner: Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax City, Falls Church. Outer: Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick.

2006 2007

2008

2005

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Page 3: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

3DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

slipping 4.8%, when compared to the sales volume increase of 10.8%

in 2013. Easing supply constraints and falling investor demand may

have contributed to this slowdown. Interest rates have remained low,

which could motivate some would-be home buyers for a last round of

purchases before the expected modest increases in mortgage rates in

the second half of 2015.

Unit volume sold, however, has been sustained fairly well in light of

lackluster regional job gains. While the Federal government has trimmed

its workforce, the private sector continues to create enough new jobs to

help offset the local economic impact of Federal austerity measures.

DAYS ON MARKET AVERAGE RISES; STILL BELOW LONG-TERM AVERAGE

Homes in the Washington area averaged 58 days on the market, up

9 days from one year earlier but still below the 10-year average of 63

days. The increase in days on market over the year is driven by a rising

number of listings in the area, with active listings up 24.4% from a year

ago. Potential home buyers are now deciding among a greater array of

listings at more moderate prices, which may partly explain the longer

time to closing. See Figure 4.

Time on market is shortest in the Core Jurisdictions and longest in

the Outer Suburbs. Differences between the geographic areas of the

market had widened a bit near the end of 2011 and in early 2012

as uncertainty over the Federal budget began to affect the market,

although the gaps were not as divergent as in the period from 2006-

2009. Those gaps became less pronounced throughout the second

half of 2012 and during 2013, indicating a healthy overall market.

Throughout 2014, the market remained healthy overall, but the pace

of activity has been slowing.

• Core: Time on market was 51 days at year-end 2014, the same as the

average days on market one year earlier.

• Inner Ring: Time on market averaged 58 days in the 4th quarter of

2014, up from 47 days one year earlier.

• Outer Suburbs: Time on market was 63 days during the last quarter

of 2014, an increase from 49 days a year earlier and the same as the

regional 10-year average. See Figure 5.

Of note, the average selling price in the 4th quarter of 2014 was 98.5%

of list price. The ratio was unchanged during the 4th quarter but ticked

down during the second half of 2014 as listings increased and buyers

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Washington Metro by Sub-Area* | Existing Houses | Figure 5

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

DA

YS

Inner Core

Outer

2005 2008 2006 2007 2004 2009

Market Average at Q4 14: 58 Days

2003 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Core: DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner: Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax City, Falls Church. Outer: Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick.

2014

FOR-SALE L ISTINGS Washington Metro Area | Existing Houses | Figure 4

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14

LIST

ING

S

10-Year Average = 19,491 Listings

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015.

Page 4: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

4DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

became less willing to pay nearly full price, taking advantage of more

options at varying price points. Additions to the available inventory

may create a larger bid/ask spread in the year ahead.

AVAILABLE INVENTORY EDGES UP

The metro area averaged 2.4 months of for-sale inventory during the

4th quarter of 2014. Although this average is lower than the average

available inventory from the prior quarter due to seasonal factors, it is

in keeping with the continuous over-the-year rise in for-sale inventory

that began in early 2014. Despite the recent lackluster regional job

growth, positive momentum in the national economy and a reduction

in uncertainty locally have encouraged Washington area residents to

bring more inventory onto the market. This increase will likely further

decelerate the rate of price growth in the metro area. However, it should

also activate more potential home buyers in 2015 – consumers who

have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right combination of

available units and price. See Figure 6.

In recent years, the Washington area’s average prices tend to rise

when the ratio of inventory to sales is below six months. This ratio is

calculated by dividing the number of listings by the number of sales at

a given point in time. If the number of sales increases and the number

of listings decreases or remains the same, the ratio may be low, as at

the peak of the housing market in 2005. The relatively low ratio we

have seen in the past two years is primarily due to a lower number

of listings, rather than robust sales volume. However, the number of

listings is now increasing and the months of inventory available is

higher than a year ago.

Fauquier County in Virginia had the highest ratio of listings to sales at

approximately 6.1 months of inventory at December 2014. Meanwhile,

the District now has the lowest available inventory relative to sales, at

1.5 months. A small number of active listings in the District combined

with an unexpected ramping up of sales at the tail end of 2014 to keep

the sales pace in the metro area’s urban core at its fastest rate (lowest

inventory-to-sales ratio) since 2005. See Figure 7.

OTHER MAJOR METROS ARE OUTPERFORMING THE WASHINGTON AREA

By most measures, the Washington metro area housing market has

consistently performed better than other metro areas’ housing

markets. This is seen most clearly when examining long-term

MONTHS OF FOR -SALE INVENTORY Washington Metro Area | Figure 7

0

2

4

6

8

District Ffx City Arl Falls Ch Ffx Cnty Alex Mont Pr Geo Lou Pr Will Fred (MD) Fauq

December 2013

December 2014

Dec. 2014: 2.4 Months

MO

NT

HS

OF

INV

EN

TOR

Y

AT

SA

LES

PA

CE

*

Dec. 2013: 2.1 Months

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Sales pace at December 2014. Pace is ratio of total for-sale inventory to current month’s sales.

PRICE CHANGE AND INVENTORY Washington Metro Area | 2004 – 2014 | Figure 6

0

3

6

9

12

15

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

12

-MO

NT

H P

RIC

E C

HA

NG

E M

ON

TH

S O

F INV

EN

TOR

Y*

12-Month Price Change (left axis)

Months of Inventory (right axis)

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Months of inventory at current sales pace for last month in each quarter.

Page 5: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

5DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

performance. Recently, however, price growth in many major U.S.

metros has surpassed the Washington market’s rate of growth, with

the largest price gains occurring in markets hardest hit by the housing

downturn. In particular, metros such as Miami, San Francisco, and Las

Vegas are seeing more robust price growth.

In the Washington metro area, the Federal Housing Finance Agency

(FHFA) reported that the metro area experienced price growth of 161%

from the 3rd quarter of 1994 through the 3rd quarter of 2014, with

Washington placing third after Los Angeles and San Diego among large

metros. See Figure 8.

Meanwhile, Case-Shiller has reported that Washington home prices

increased 2.2% from October 2013 to October 2014, the most recent

data available. Washington underperformed the 20-city composite

increase of 4.5% over the same period, though the composite price gain

continues to decelerate as part of a national slowdown. Among the

20 cities in the composite, Washington ranked 16th in greatest price

growth as of October 2014, one spot higher than the quarter prior. The

metro area’s housing market began to recover earlier in the cycle and

its performance is now being exceeded by other metropolitan areas’

performances. See Figure 9.

Of note, Case-Shiller’s methodology is different from FHFA’s in that

Case-Shiller tracks “same-store” prices, or comparable unit sales.

WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

Housing market conditions during the 4th quarter of 2014 breathed

some life into the slowing Washington area housing market recovery.

Home prices increased 4.0% compared with the 4th quarter of 2013

while sales volume rose 1.9% over the year. However, these rates are

slower when compared to the price and sales volume growth in 2013.

The days-on-market average stood at 58 days during the 4th quarter

of 2014, up 9 days from a year earlier but still below the long-term

average of 63 days. Steady price gains in recent years plus improving

economic growth helped increase months of available inventory in the

Washington area during the 4th quarter of 2014, a trend that was seen

throughout the year. As supply constraints in the market continue to

ease, local price growth likely will remain in the modest range of 2%

to 4% per annum in the intermediate term. This slowdown in price

growth should, however, put purchasing a home within reach of more

Washington buyers as home prices become more consistent with

buyer preference, wage growth, and rent changes in the region.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2.2%

HO

ME

PR

ICE

IN

DE

X G

RO

WT

H

PR ICE CHANGES 20-City Composite | October 2013 – October 2014 | Figure 9

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Delta Associates; January 2015. Note: Seasonally adjusted purchase-only index.

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

161%

PR

ICE

CH

AN

GE

S R

EFL

EC

TE

D I

N

PU

RC

HA

SE

-ON

LY I

ND

EX

ES

PR ICE CHANGES Selected Large Metro Areas | 1994 – Third Quarter 2014 | Figure 8

Source: FHFA, Delta Associates; January 2015. Note: Price change at 3rd quarter of respective year; seasonally adjusted.

Page 6: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

6DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

Early in 2015, sales activity may also be spurred by potential buyers

who likely will take advantage of favorable mortgage rates before the

widely-expected bump during the second half of 2015. Compared to the

tighter lending restrictions that plagued 2014, recent announcements

of new lending programs by Fannie/Freddie could also make buying

easier on many first-time home buyers in the year ahead.

On balance, we expect that a combination of the following will

bring modest gains to the Washington-area for-sale housing market

during 2015:

• Mortgage interest rates that remain relatively low by historical

standards, notwithstanding a potential modest increase during the

latter half of 2015.

• An easing of lending standards that will open up homeownership,

especially to first-time home buyers.

• Job growth, driven by the private sector, that is likely to stay modest

but gain traction.

• Income growth and household formation that will propel new home

buyers into the marketplace.

• Growing confidence by builders, lenders, and buyers that the height

of market risk has passed.

Of note, a projected decline in this region’s apartment rents will likely

slow the rate of price gains for Washington-area single-family houses

in the year ahead. Still, the regional housing market is likely to see

modest price increases in 2015.

Early in 2015, sales activity may also be spurred by potential buyers who likely will take advantage of favorable mortgage rates before the widely-expected bump during the second half of 2015.

Page 7: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

7DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

T H E B I G P I C T U R E

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Washington Metro AreaU.S. 20 MSA Composite

PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES Washington Metro Area vs. 20-City Composite | Figure 10

% C

HA

NG

E

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Delta Associates; January 2015. *12 months ending October 2014. Note: Seasonally adjusted purchase-only index.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

RESALE VOLUME Washington Metro Area | All Housing Types | Figure 11

HO

US

ING

UN

ITS

SO

LD

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015.

ANNUAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Washington Metro Area | Existing Houses | Figure 12

27

105

49

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

DA

YS

10-Year Average = 63 Days

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015.

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Dec'13

Jan'14

Feb'14

Mar'14

Apr'14

May'14

Jun'14

Jul'14

Aug'14

Sep'14

Oct'14

Nov'14

Dec'14

RESALE PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area | Trailing 12 Months | Figure 13

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015.

Our Take: The Washington area saw a 2.2% increase

in existing home prices for the 12 months ending

October 2014 (per Case-Shiller data), underperforming

the 20-City Composite average of 4.5%. Washington

outperformed its peer cities earlier in the cycle but

now trails most major metros. However, price growth

is decelerating in most of the major markets included

in the composite index.

Our Take: Sales volume during the 4th quarter of

2014 was 14,409 units, up 1.9% from the same period

last year. Sales volume for all of 2014, however,

declined 4.8% compared to all of 2013.

Our Take: The average time on the market at 4th

quarter 2014 is 58 days, up from 49 days one year

earlier but still below the 10-year average of 63 days.

The average for all of 2014 was 49 days, up from 45

days for all of 2013.

Our Take: Price growth this quarter weakened

compared to the elevated price gains of last year.

However, on a 12-month trailing basis, the average

price in December 2014 increased 4.4% from

December 2013.

Page 8: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

8DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

LOOSER LENDING STANDARDS OFFER NEW OPTIMISM

Some barriers to homeownership could be broken in the year ahead.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac introduced an affordable mortgage program

that will enable creditworthy borrowers to get a mortgage with as low

as 3% down. This program also will mandate borrower counseling and

require private mortgage insurance. Meanwhile, the Federal Housing

Agency (FHA) also is rolling out a plan to reduce its mortgage insurance

premium from 1.35% of a loan’s value per year to 0.85%.

For the Washington metro area, these efforts to expand mortgage

availability will likely open up the marketplace. It will help reinvigorate

the housing market after tighter lending restrictions of recent years

contributed to the slowdown of Washington homeownership rates,

from 67.6% in 2011 to 65.5% in 2014, as of third quarter. See Figure 14.

The new initiatives also come at a time when saving for a down payment

tops the list of biggest hurdles to homeownership and income growth

remains stagnant nationally. In the Washington region, although

median household incomes outperform the national average, data

from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the region’s overall

real income per capita declined 4.1% from 2008 to 2012. Combined

with the higher-than-average cost of living in Washington, this income

constraint has hindered many residents from taking advantage of

homeownership opportunities. The recently announced flexible

lending programs will provide potential home buyers with more tools

to tackle the affordability obstacle.

Though there is a concern that the programs, particularly the Fannie/

Freddie option, might create another housing bubble, they could

lure new buyers, particularly Millennials, who have largely avoided

homeownership since the housing meltdown in 2008. Some boost to

regional demand can therefore be expected as the Washington region’s

Millennial age group – the largest cohort of potential first-time home

buyers in the region – recognizes that the new Federal loan programs

are great incentives to buy, especially for those who have excellent

credit but lack the means to pay a substantial down payment plus

closing costs.

Along with the continuing moderation of price gains, availability of

still-low interest rates, and gradual increases in inventory, the looser

lending standards likely will rouse home buyers off the sidelines

and make the prospect of homeownership in Washington look more

realistic in the year ahead.

OWNER HOUSEHOLDS Washington Metro vs. United States | 2007 – Q3 2014 | Figure 14

% O

F TO

TAL

HO

US

EH

OLD

S

Source: U.S. Census, Delta Associates; January 2015.

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

69%

70%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Washington MetroU.S.

Y E A R LY A V E R A G E

Page 9: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

9DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

WASHINGTON AREA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

We expect job growth in the metro area to remain tempered for an

expansion cycle – in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 jobs per annum from

2015 through 2018. This is sufficient to support a healthy residential

real estate industry, but below the levels experienced in most recent

expansion cycles. See Figures 15-17.

The Washington metro area should have a stronger year in 2015

compared to 2014 and an even stronger year in 2016. However,

absolute employment growth will be modest relative to the size of

the regional economy. As the Federal government will continue to

face austerity measures during this period – albeit reduced from 2013

levels – we expect growth to be concentrated in the private sector.

However, the Federal government remains willing to spend money to

fight significant threats. For example, the omnibus spending bill that

Congress passed in mid-December includes $35 million for the General

Services Administration to create a civilian cyber-security campus in

the Washington area.

Part of the region’s strength will be driven by the metro area’s ability

to attract college graduates. The region leads the nation in net in-

migration of Millennials and remains the U.S. leader in the share of

a region’s population with college degrees. These traits will help to

attract companies that are seeking to replace retiring Baby Boomers

with young, well-educated additions to the work force.

With data for 2014 not yet finalized, we estimate that an annual

average of 40,700 payroll jobs will be added to the Washington metro

area economy during the five-year period from 2014 to 2018. Private

sector firms will be the cornerstone of employment growth in the

period ahead.PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 1998 – 2018 | Figure 17

TH

OU

SAN

DS

OF

NE

W

PAY

RO

LL J

OB

S

Source: BLS, Delta Associates; January 2015.

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

20-Year Annual Average = 42,600/Year

5-Year Projected Average = 40,700/Year

PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Large Metro Areas | 12 Months Ending November 2014 | Figure 15

Source: BLS, Delta Associates; January 2015.

18.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Hou LABasin

DFW NY SF Bay SouthFl

Atl Phx Bos Den Chi Was

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Large Metro Areas | November 2013 vs. November 2014 | Figure 16

Source: BLS, Delta Associates; January 2015. Note: National rates are seasonally adjusted.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Den Was Hou DFW Bos SF Bay S Fla NY Chi Phx Atl LA Basin

November 2013 November 2014

7.0%

5.8%

National Rate

UN

EM

PLO

YM

EN

T R

AT

E

We expect job growth in the metro area to remain tempered for an expansion cycle – in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 jobs per annum from 2015 through 2018.

Page 10: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

10DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

DELTA ASSOCIATES

Delta Associates is a firm of experienced professionals offering consulting, valuation, and data services to the commercial real

estate industry for over 30 years. The firm’s practice is organized in four related areas:

• Valuation of partial interests in commercial real estate assets.

• Consulting, research and advisory services for commercial real estate projects, including market studies, market entry

strategies, asset performance enhancement studies, pre-acquisition due diligence, and financial and fiscal impact analyses.

• Litigation support, including dispute resolution, from forensic fact-finding to mediation and expert witness services. Damages,

material adverse change, and contract disputes are specialties.

• Subscription data for select metro regions for office, industrial, retail, condominium, and apartment markets.

For more information on Delta Associates, please visit DeltaAssociates.com.

Delta’s Washington Area Housing Outlook team includes:

• Gregory H. Leisch, CRE, Chief Executive

• David Weisel, CRE, President, Consulting Division

• Alexander (Sandy) Paul, CRE, Executive Vice President

• Rachelle Sarmiento, Associate

• Michele Frazzetta, Graphic Designer

© 2015. All rights reserved. You may neither copy nor disseminate this report. If quoted, proper attribution is required.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates, Federal Housing Agency, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Metropolitan Regional

Information Systems, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, S&P/Case-Shiller, U.S. Census.

Although the information contained herein is based on sources which Delta Associates (DA) believes to be reliable, DA makes no representation or warranty that such

information is accurate or complete. All prices, yields, analyses, computations, and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Under no circumstances should

any such information be considered representations or warranties of DA of any kind. Any such information may be based on assumptions which may or may not be accurate,

and any such assumption may differ from actual results. This report should not be considered investment advice.

1717 K Street, NW, Suite 1010

Washington, DC 20006

202.778.3100

[email protected]

Page 11: THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET · 2015-01-28 · SALES PACE* 2.4 Mnths 1.4 Mnths 0.3 Mnths Source: MRIS, Delta Associates ; January 2015. *Sales pace at December

11DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY

CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship at George Mason University strives to advance real estate research and education

in real estate development and finance. Working in partnership with leading real estate developers, professionals, and

organizations in the Washington, D.C. area, the center develops relevant content for the business and academic communities.

The center acts as a bridge between the Master of Science in Real Estate Development academic program and the real estate

industry. It provides MS in Real Estate Development students with a forum for professional development and offers them

unique opportunities to connect with the real estate development community.

For more information about The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship please contact Robert Wulff, CREE Director and MS

in Real Estate Development Director, at [email protected]. Or, visit us on the web at business.gmu.edu/realestate.

The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship is within George Mason’s School of Business. Ranked by U.S. News & World Report in the top 15

percent of all AACSB accredited business schools, the School of Business is one of only 10 percent of business schools worldwide that is accredited

in both business and accounting by the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB) International.

Locations

Fairfax

Arlington

Herndon

Main Campus

School of Business

4400 University Drive, MS 1B1

Enterprise Hall

Fairfax, VA 22030

703.993.1880