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Washington metro area housing market conditions improved modestly
during the 4th quarter of 2014. Average sales prices and aggregate sales
volume increased metro-wide, but at a much slower pace compared to
one year earlier. Deceleration in price growth and sales volume was a
trend for 2014 overall, as was increasing inventory. The rise in average
days on market for each quarter of 2014 further suggests that the
regional housing market recovery is slowing.
• 4th quarter prices: Up 4.0% during the 4th quarter 2014 compared
to 4th quarter 2013.
• Unit volume: Up 1.9% from last year at this time.
• Days on market: Up 9 days over the year to 58 days but still below
the 10-year average of 63 days.
• Months of inventory: Up 0.3 months from the sales pace at 4th
quarter 2013.
The national economy is gaining traction and an easing of lending
standards by Federal lending agencies will support the broader housing
market in the period ahead. However, impediments such as modest job
creation and weak wage growth will likely keep the region’s housing
market performance sluggish in early 2015. For current housing
market indicators, see Figure 1.
RATE OF PRICE GROWTH DECELERATING
The average price of a Washington-area home sold in the 4th quarter
of 2014 was $466,216 — an increase of 4.0% from one year earlier.
There was a noticeable slowdown from 2013’s overall increase of 8.0%
as home prices in Washington increased only 3.1% for all of 2014. Price
gains are likely to decelerate as the number of active listings in the
MARKET INDICATORS Washington Metro Area | At 4th Quarter 2014 | Figure 1
CHANGE VS. Q3 2014
CHANGE VS. Q4 2013
Q4 AVG. SALES PRICE $466,216 0.9% 4.0%
Q4 SALES (UNITS) 14,409 13.7% 1.9%
Q4 AVG. DAYS ON MARKET 58 12 9
SALES PACE* 2.4 Months 1.4 Months 0.3 Months
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Sales pace at December 2014. Pace is ratio of total for-sale inventory to current month’s sales.
YEAR-END 2014
DELTA ASSOCIATES
WASHINGTON AREA
HOUSING OUTLOOK
SPONSORED BY
1DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET
Center for Real Estate
EntrepreneurshipCenter for Real Estate
Entrepreneurship
2DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
region increases. This slowdown in price growth could, however, ease
the affordability obstacle for potential Washington area home buyers,
helping boost the demand for housing in the near term.
The Core Jurisdictions of the District of Columbia, Alexandria, and
Arlington counties experienced the greatest price increase among the
sub-areas. The average price of homes in the Core Jurisdictions was
7.5% higher than at 4th quarter 2013, at $614,889.
• The District: average home prices spiked 7.7% from a year earlier.
• Arlington: home prices increased 5.6% compared with prices at this
time last year.
• Alexandria: prices rose 8.3% from a year ago.
The Washington area’s Inner Ring of Fairfax, Montgomery, and
Prince George’s counties (including Falls Church and Fairfax cities)
experienced a price increase of 2.3% from a year earlier; the average
price at 4th quarter 2014 was $444,680.
• Prince George’s: average prices in the 4th quarter climbed 12.5%
from the average a year earlier.
• Montgomery County: home prices declined 1.5% from year-end
2013.
• Fairfax County: prices increased 2.3% compared with prices from
a year earlier.
In the Washington area’s Outer Suburbs of Prince William, Loudoun
and Frederick counties prices were 3.3% higher than a year earlier;
the average price at 4th quarter 2014 was $382,214. See Figures 2 and 3.
• Prince William County: average prices are 4.7% higher than a year
earlier.
• Loudoun County: the average sales price in the 4th quarter of 2014
was 4.1% higher than the average a year earlier.
• Frederick County (MD): average home prices slightly declined 0.2%
from one year earlier.
SALES VOLUME UP BUT RATE OF INCREASE IS SLOWING
Unit volume sold in the 4th quarter of 2014 increased 1.9% from a year
earlier. Robust sales in December helped Washington rebound from
eleven consecutive months of year-over-year sales declines. Though
sales bounced back at year-end, overall sales gains in 2014 slowed,
HOME PRICES BY SUB -AREA* Washington Metro Area | At 4th Quarter 2014 | Figure 2
SUB-AREA* CHANGE VS.
Q3 2014 CHANGE VS.
Q4 2013
Core $614,889 2.6% 7.5%
Units 3,096 7.0% 2.1%
Inner $444,680 4.1% 2.3%
Units 7,661 14.6% 1.2%
Outer $382,214 1.2% 3.3%
Units 3,443 16.2% 4.2%
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Core: DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner: Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax City, Falls Church. Outer: Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick.
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Core
Inner
Outer
HOME SALES AVERAGE PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro by Sub-Area* | 2005 – 2014 | Figure 3
12
-MO
NT
H T
RA
ILIN
G A
VE
RA
GE
P
RIC
E C
HA
NG
E
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Core: DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner: Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax City, Falls Church. Outer: Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick.
2006 2007
2008
2005
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
slipping 4.8%, when compared to the sales volume increase of 10.8%
in 2013. Easing supply constraints and falling investor demand may
have contributed to this slowdown. Interest rates have remained low,
which could motivate some would-be home buyers for a last round of
purchases before the expected modest increases in mortgage rates in
the second half of 2015.
Unit volume sold, however, has been sustained fairly well in light of
lackluster regional job gains. While the Federal government has trimmed
its workforce, the private sector continues to create enough new jobs to
help offset the local economic impact of Federal austerity measures.
DAYS ON MARKET AVERAGE RISES; STILL BELOW LONG-TERM AVERAGE
Homes in the Washington area averaged 58 days on the market, up
9 days from one year earlier but still below the 10-year average of 63
days. The increase in days on market over the year is driven by a rising
number of listings in the area, with active listings up 24.4% from a year
ago. Potential home buyers are now deciding among a greater array of
listings at more moderate prices, which may partly explain the longer
time to closing. See Figure 4.
Time on market is shortest in the Core Jurisdictions and longest in
the Outer Suburbs. Differences between the geographic areas of the
market had widened a bit near the end of 2011 and in early 2012
as uncertainty over the Federal budget began to affect the market,
although the gaps were not as divergent as in the period from 2006-
2009. Those gaps became less pronounced throughout the second
half of 2012 and during 2013, indicating a healthy overall market.
Throughout 2014, the market remained healthy overall, but the pace
of activity has been slowing.
• Core: Time on market was 51 days at year-end 2014, the same as the
average days on market one year earlier.
• Inner Ring: Time on market averaged 58 days in the 4th quarter of
2014, up from 47 days one year earlier.
• Outer Suburbs: Time on market was 63 days during the last quarter
of 2014, an increase from 49 days a year earlier and the same as the
regional 10-year average. See Figure 5.
Of note, the average selling price in the 4th quarter of 2014 was 98.5%
of list price. The ratio was unchanged during the 4th quarter but ticked
down during the second half of 2014 as listings increased and buyers
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Washington Metro by Sub-Area* | Existing Houses | Figure 5
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
DA
YS
Inner Core
Outer
2005 2008 2006 2007 2004 2009
Market Average at Q4 14: 58 Days
2003 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Core: DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner: Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax City, Falls Church. Outer: Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick.
2014
FOR-SALE L ISTINGS Washington Metro Area | Existing Houses | Figure 4
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
LIST
ING
S
10-Year Average = 19,491 Listings
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015.
4DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
became less willing to pay nearly full price, taking advantage of more
options at varying price points. Additions to the available inventory
may create a larger bid/ask spread in the year ahead.
AVAILABLE INVENTORY EDGES UP
The metro area averaged 2.4 months of for-sale inventory during the
4th quarter of 2014. Although this average is lower than the average
available inventory from the prior quarter due to seasonal factors, it is
in keeping with the continuous over-the-year rise in for-sale inventory
that began in early 2014. Despite the recent lackluster regional job
growth, positive momentum in the national economy and a reduction
in uncertainty locally have encouraged Washington area residents to
bring more inventory onto the market. This increase will likely further
decelerate the rate of price growth in the metro area. However, it should
also activate more potential home buyers in 2015 – consumers who
have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right combination of
available units and price. See Figure 6.
In recent years, the Washington area’s average prices tend to rise
when the ratio of inventory to sales is below six months. This ratio is
calculated by dividing the number of listings by the number of sales at
a given point in time. If the number of sales increases and the number
of listings decreases or remains the same, the ratio may be low, as at
the peak of the housing market in 2005. The relatively low ratio we
have seen in the past two years is primarily due to a lower number
of listings, rather than robust sales volume. However, the number of
listings is now increasing and the months of inventory available is
higher than a year ago.
Fauquier County in Virginia had the highest ratio of listings to sales at
approximately 6.1 months of inventory at December 2014. Meanwhile,
the District now has the lowest available inventory relative to sales, at
1.5 months. A small number of active listings in the District combined
with an unexpected ramping up of sales at the tail end of 2014 to keep
the sales pace in the metro area’s urban core at its fastest rate (lowest
inventory-to-sales ratio) since 2005. See Figure 7.
OTHER MAJOR METROS ARE OUTPERFORMING THE WASHINGTON AREA
By most measures, the Washington metro area housing market has
consistently performed better than other metro areas’ housing
markets. This is seen most clearly when examining long-term
MONTHS OF FOR -SALE INVENTORY Washington Metro Area | Figure 7
0
2
4
6
8
District Ffx City Arl Falls Ch Ffx Cnty Alex Mont Pr Geo Lou Pr Will Fred (MD) Fauq
December 2013
December 2014
Dec. 2014: 2.4 Months
MO
NT
HS
OF
INV
EN
TOR
Y
AT
SA
LES
PA
CE
*
Dec. 2013: 2.1 Months
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Sales pace at December 2014. Pace is ratio of total for-sale inventory to current month’s sales.
PRICE CHANGE AND INVENTORY Washington Metro Area | 2004 – 2014 | Figure 6
0
3
6
9
12
15
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
12
-MO
NT
H P
RIC
E C
HA
NG
E M
ON
TH
S O
F INV
EN
TOR
Y*
12-Month Price Change (left axis)
Months of Inventory (right axis)
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015. *Months of inventory at current sales pace for last month in each quarter.
5DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
performance. Recently, however, price growth in many major U.S.
metros has surpassed the Washington market’s rate of growth, with
the largest price gains occurring in markets hardest hit by the housing
downturn. In particular, metros such as Miami, San Francisco, and Las
Vegas are seeing more robust price growth.
In the Washington metro area, the Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) reported that the metro area experienced price growth of 161%
from the 3rd quarter of 1994 through the 3rd quarter of 2014, with
Washington placing third after Los Angeles and San Diego among large
metros. See Figure 8.
Meanwhile, Case-Shiller has reported that Washington home prices
increased 2.2% from October 2013 to October 2014, the most recent
data available. Washington underperformed the 20-city composite
increase of 4.5% over the same period, though the composite price gain
continues to decelerate as part of a national slowdown. Among the
20 cities in the composite, Washington ranked 16th in greatest price
growth as of October 2014, one spot higher than the quarter prior. The
metro area’s housing market began to recover earlier in the cycle and
its performance is now being exceeded by other metropolitan areas’
performances. See Figure 9.
Of note, Case-Shiller’s methodology is different from FHFA’s in that
Case-Shiller tracks “same-store” prices, or comparable unit sales.
WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
Housing market conditions during the 4th quarter of 2014 breathed
some life into the slowing Washington area housing market recovery.
Home prices increased 4.0% compared with the 4th quarter of 2013
while sales volume rose 1.9% over the year. However, these rates are
slower when compared to the price and sales volume growth in 2013.
The days-on-market average stood at 58 days during the 4th quarter
of 2014, up 9 days from a year earlier but still below the long-term
average of 63 days. Steady price gains in recent years plus improving
economic growth helped increase months of available inventory in the
Washington area during the 4th quarter of 2014, a trend that was seen
throughout the year. As supply constraints in the market continue to
ease, local price growth likely will remain in the modest range of 2%
to 4% per annum in the intermediate term. This slowdown in price
growth should, however, put purchasing a home within reach of more
Washington buyers as home prices become more consistent with
buyer preference, wage growth, and rent changes in the region.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2.2%
HO
ME
PR
ICE
IN
DE
X G
RO
WT
H
PR ICE CHANGES 20-City Composite | October 2013 – October 2014 | Figure 9
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Delta Associates; January 2015. Note: Seasonally adjusted purchase-only index.
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
161%
PR
ICE
CH
AN
GE
S R
EFL
EC
TE
D I
N
PU
RC
HA
SE
-ON
LY I
ND
EX
ES
PR ICE CHANGES Selected Large Metro Areas | 1994 – Third Quarter 2014 | Figure 8
Source: FHFA, Delta Associates; January 2015. Note: Price change at 3rd quarter of respective year; seasonally adjusted.
6DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
Early in 2015, sales activity may also be spurred by potential buyers
who likely will take advantage of favorable mortgage rates before the
widely-expected bump during the second half of 2015. Compared to the
tighter lending restrictions that plagued 2014, recent announcements
of new lending programs by Fannie/Freddie could also make buying
easier on many first-time home buyers in the year ahead.
On balance, we expect that a combination of the following will
bring modest gains to the Washington-area for-sale housing market
during 2015:
• Mortgage interest rates that remain relatively low by historical
standards, notwithstanding a potential modest increase during the
latter half of 2015.
• An easing of lending standards that will open up homeownership,
especially to first-time home buyers.
• Job growth, driven by the private sector, that is likely to stay modest
but gain traction.
• Income growth and household formation that will propel new home
buyers into the marketplace.
• Growing confidence by builders, lenders, and buyers that the height
of market risk has passed.
Of note, a projected decline in this region’s apartment rents will likely
slow the rate of price gains for Washington-area single-family houses
in the year ahead. Still, the regional housing market is likely to see
modest price increases in 2015.
Early in 2015, sales activity may also be spurred by potential buyers who likely will take advantage of favorable mortgage rates before the widely-expected bump during the second half of 2015.
7DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
T H E B I G P I C T U R E
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Washington Metro AreaU.S. 20 MSA Composite
PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES Washington Metro Area vs. 20-City Composite | Figure 10
% C
HA
NG
E
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Delta Associates; January 2015. *12 months ending October 2014. Note: Seasonally adjusted purchase-only index.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RESALE VOLUME Washington Metro Area | All Housing Types | Figure 11
HO
US
ING
UN
ITS
SO
LD
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015.
ANNUAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Washington Metro Area | Existing Houses | Figure 12
27
105
49
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DA
YS
10-Year Average = 63 Days
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec'13
Jan'14
Feb'14
Mar'14
Apr'14
May'14
Jun'14
Jul'14
Aug'14
Sep'14
Oct'14
Nov'14
Dec'14
RESALE PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area | Trailing 12 Months | Figure 13
Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; January 2015.
Our Take: The Washington area saw a 2.2% increase
in existing home prices for the 12 months ending
October 2014 (per Case-Shiller data), underperforming
the 20-City Composite average of 4.5%. Washington
outperformed its peer cities earlier in the cycle but
now trails most major metros. However, price growth
is decelerating in most of the major markets included
in the composite index.
Our Take: Sales volume during the 4th quarter of
2014 was 14,409 units, up 1.9% from the same period
last year. Sales volume for all of 2014, however,
declined 4.8% compared to all of 2013.
Our Take: The average time on the market at 4th
quarter 2014 is 58 days, up from 49 days one year
earlier but still below the 10-year average of 63 days.
The average for all of 2014 was 49 days, up from 45
days for all of 2013.
Our Take: Price growth this quarter weakened
compared to the elevated price gains of last year.
However, on a 12-month trailing basis, the average
price in December 2014 increased 4.4% from
December 2013.
8DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
LOOSER LENDING STANDARDS OFFER NEW OPTIMISM
Some barriers to homeownership could be broken in the year ahead.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac introduced an affordable mortgage program
that will enable creditworthy borrowers to get a mortgage with as low
as 3% down. This program also will mandate borrower counseling and
require private mortgage insurance. Meanwhile, the Federal Housing
Agency (FHA) also is rolling out a plan to reduce its mortgage insurance
premium from 1.35% of a loan’s value per year to 0.85%.
For the Washington metro area, these efforts to expand mortgage
availability will likely open up the marketplace. It will help reinvigorate
the housing market after tighter lending restrictions of recent years
contributed to the slowdown of Washington homeownership rates,
from 67.6% in 2011 to 65.5% in 2014, as of third quarter. See Figure 14.
The new initiatives also come at a time when saving for a down payment
tops the list of biggest hurdles to homeownership and income growth
remains stagnant nationally. In the Washington region, although
median household incomes outperform the national average, data
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the region’s overall
real income per capita declined 4.1% from 2008 to 2012. Combined
with the higher-than-average cost of living in Washington, this income
constraint has hindered many residents from taking advantage of
homeownership opportunities. The recently announced flexible
lending programs will provide potential home buyers with more tools
to tackle the affordability obstacle.
Though there is a concern that the programs, particularly the Fannie/
Freddie option, might create another housing bubble, they could
lure new buyers, particularly Millennials, who have largely avoided
homeownership since the housing meltdown in 2008. Some boost to
regional demand can therefore be expected as the Washington region’s
Millennial age group – the largest cohort of potential first-time home
buyers in the region – recognizes that the new Federal loan programs
are great incentives to buy, especially for those who have excellent
credit but lack the means to pay a substantial down payment plus
closing costs.
Along with the continuing moderation of price gains, availability of
still-low interest rates, and gradual increases in inventory, the looser
lending standards likely will rouse home buyers off the sidelines
and make the prospect of homeownership in Washington look more
realistic in the year ahead.
OWNER HOUSEHOLDS Washington Metro vs. United States | 2007 – Q3 2014 | Figure 14
% O
F TO
TAL
HO
US
EH
OLD
S
Source: U.S. Census, Delta Associates; January 2015.
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Washington MetroU.S.
Y E A R LY A V E R A G E
9DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
WASHINGTON AREA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
We expect job growth in the metro area to remain tempered for an
expansion cycle – in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 jobs per annum from
2015 through 2018. This is sufficient to support a healthy residential
real estate industry, but below the levels experienced in most recent
expansion cycles. See Figures 15-17.
The Washington metro area should have a stronger year in 2015
compared to 2014 and an even stronger year in 2016. However,
absolute employment growth will be modest relative to the size of
the regional economy. As the Federal government will continue to
face austerity measures during this period – albeit reduced from 2013
levels – we expect growth to be concentrated in the private sector.
However, the Federal government remains willing to spend money to
fight significant threats. For example, the omnibus spending bill that
Congress passed in mid-December includes $35 million for the General
Services Administration to create a civilian cyber-security campus in
the Washington area.
Part of the region’s strength will be driven by the metro area’s ability
to attract college graduates. The region leads the nation in net in-
migration of Millennials and remains the U.S. leader in the share of
a region’s population with college degrees. These traits will help to
attract companies that are seeking to replace retiring Baby Boomers
with young, well-educated additions to the work force.
With data for 2014 not yet finalized, we estimate that an annual
average of 40,700 payroll jobs will be added to the Washington metro
area economy during the five-year period from 2014 to 2018. Private
sector firms will be the cornerstone of employment growth in the
period ahead.PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 1998 – 2018 | Figure 17
TH
OU
SAN
DS
OF
NE
W
PAY
RO
LL J
OB
S
Source: BLS, Delta Associates; January 2015.
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
20-Year Annual Average = 42,600/Year
5-Year Projected Average = 40,700/Year
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Large Metro Areas | 12 Months Ending November 2014 | Figure 15
Source: BLS, Delta Associates; January 2015.
18.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Hou LABasin
DFW NY SF Bay SouthFl
Atl Phx Bos Den Chi Was
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Large Metro Areas | November 2013 vs. November 2014 | Figure 16
Source: BLS, Delta Associates; January 2015. Note: National rates are seasonally adjusted.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Den Was Hou DFW Bos SF Bay S Fla NY Chi Phx Atl LA Basin
November 2013 November 2014
7.0%
5.8%
National Rate
UN
EM
PLO
YM
EN
T R
AT
E
We expect job growth in the metro area to remain tempered for an expansion cycle – in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 jobs per annum from 2015 through 2018.
10DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
DELTA ASSOCIATES
Delta Associates is a firm of experienced professionals offering consulting, valuation, and data services to the commercial real
estate industry for over 30 years. The firm’s practice is organized in four related areas:
• Valuation of partial interests in commercial real estate assets.
• Consulting, research and advisory services for commercial real estate projects, including market studies, market entry
strategies, asset performance enhancement studies, pre-acquisition due diligence, and financial and fiscal impact analyses.
• Litigation support, including dispute resolution, from forensic fact-finding to mediation and expert witness services. Damages,
material adverse change, and contract disputes are specialties.
• Subscription data for select metro regions for office, industrial, retail, condominium, and apartment markets.
For more information on Delta Associates, please visit DeltaAssociates.com.
Delta’s Washington Area Housing Outlook team includes:
• Gregory H. Leisch, CRE, Chief Executive
• David Weisel, CRE, President, Consulting Division
• Alexander (Sandy) Paul, CRE, Executive Vice President
• Rachelle Sarmiento, Associate
• Michele Frazzetta, Graphic Designer
© 2015. All rights reserved. You may neither copy nor disseminate this report. If quoted, proper attribution is required.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates, Federal Housing Agency, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Metropolitan Regional
Information Systems, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, S&P/Case-Shiller, U.S. Census.
Although the information contained herein is based on sources which Delta Associates (DA) believes to be reliable, DA makes no representation or warranty that such
information is accurate or complete. All prices, yields, analyses, computations, and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Under no circumstances should
any such information be considered representations or warranties of DA of any kind. Any such information may be based on assumptions which may or may not be accurate,
and any such assumption may differ from actual results. This report should not be considered investment advice.
1717 K Street, NW, Suite 1010
Washington, DC 20006
202.778.3100
11DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
YEAR-END 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK
GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY
CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship at George Mason University strives to advance real estate research and education
in real estate development and finance. Working in partnership with leading real estate developers, professionals, and
organizations in the Washington, D.C. area, the center develops relevant content for the business and academic communities.
The center acts as a bridge between the Master of Science in Real Estate Development academic program and the real estate
industry. It provides MS in Real Estate Development students with a forum for professional development and offers them
unique opportunities to connect with the real estate development community.
For more information about The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship please contact Robert Wulff, CREE Director and MS
in Real Estate Development Director, at [email protected]. Or, visit us on the web at business.gmu.edu/realestate.
The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship is within George Mason’s School of Business. Ranked by U.S. News & World Report in the top 15
percent of all AACSB accredited business schools, the School of Business is one of only 10 percent of business schools worldwide that is accredited
in both business and accounting by the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB) International.
Locations
Fairfax
Arlington
Herndon
Main Campus
School of Business
4400 University Drive, MS 1B1
Enterprise Hall
Fairfax, VA 22030
703.993.1880