THE WALTER H. SHORENSTEINASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTERSTANFORD UNIVERSITY

CENTER OVERVIEW 2004 –2005

cooperation

development

transitionTHE WALTER H. SHORENSTEIN

ASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTER

Stanford University

Encina Hall, E301

Stanford, CA 94305-6055

Phone: 650-723-9741

Fax: 650-723-6530

http://APARC.stanford.edu

Cover photos (top to bottom): Detail of bronze bust of Walter H. Shorenstein, for whom the Center is named; a standing-room–only audience listens to an address by Kim Dae-Jung, former President of the Republic of Korea; incoming ShorensteinAPARC director Gi-Wook Shin introduces Kim Dae-Jung. Photos above (top to bottom): Congressman Curt Weldon (R-PA)addresses the conference “North Korea: 2005 and Beyond”; Jean Oi celebrates the graduation of several of her graduate students;panelists discuss university-industry linkage in the United States, Taiwan, and Mainland China at a recent SPRIE symposium.

2 Letter from the Director4 Looking Forward6 Salute to Walter H. Shorenstein12 Supporting Shorenstein APARC14 Donors16 Research32 Programs44 Outreach53 People

Photos (top to bottom): Sumisho Electronics President and CEO Yasuyuki “Tex” Abe speaks at Shorenstein APARC on applyingthe best practices of Silicon Valley in Japan; Takeshi Ota, from Tokyo Electric Power Company, presents his research project;visiting fellows from the 2004–05 class take part in the annual Shorenstein APARC Halloween Pumpkin Carving Contest.

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center

(Shorenstein APARC) is a unique Stanford University institution

focused on the interdisciplinary study of contemporary Asia.

Shorenstein APARC’s mission is to:

• Produce and publish outstanding interdisciplinary, Asia-

Pacific–focused research;

• Educate students, scholars, and corporate and governmental

affiliates;

• Promote constructive interaction to influence U.S. policy

toward the Asia-Pacific, and guide Asian nations on key issues

of societal transition, development, U.S.-Asia relations, and

regional cooperation.

Mission

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The past year was the final one in my term as director of the Asia-Pacific Research

Center, which began in fall 2000. I have seen a number of changes over the years: the

expansion and renovation of Encina Hall, and our move into our superb third-floor

facilities, the departure of much of the earlier generation of faculty and staff, and the

arrival of several newcomers who strengthened our efforts on Korea, Southeast Asia,

American foreign policy, and South Asia. The scope of our activities has increased, and

the depth and size of our scholarly community has been augmented with postdoctoral

scholars and visitors from many parts of the world.

As I complete my term, there is a strong sense that APARC is in transition—and

on an upward trajectory. We are in the early stages of a major effort to strengthen our

depleted faculty on contemporary Asia. In the coming months searches will be under way

for new faculty who specialize in the study of the Japanese and Chinese economies,

Japanese and Chinese politics, and contemporary Korea. We look forward, additionally,

to the hiring of historians of twentieth-century Japan and China. In the near future we

can look forward to a faculty that is greatly expanded, and a research community that

is stronger than ever before.

This nascent rebuilding process is the first step in what we hope will prove to be a

much broader effort to internationalize research and education at Stanford. Stanford is

about to begin a major capital campaign with three major foci, one of which is known

as the International Initiative. Asia, as a rapidly expanding region of economic, political,

and cultural influence, will be a major component of that effort, and the Freeman Spogli

“There is a strong sense that APARC is in transition—and on an upward trajectory.”

Letter from the Director

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Institute for International Studies and APARC will play a major role in formulating and

executing these plans. APARC stands to benefit greatly from these developments.

Some resources for this rebuilding and expansion have already been secured, thanks

to the tireless work of APARC faculty and supporters. In last year’s message, I announced

the establishment of new faculty chairs in Japanese politics and Korean studies, the

result of efforts by APARC faculty Tom Rohlen and Gi-Wook Shin, respectively. Dan

Okimoto, one of our founding members and a longtime director, has consistently sought

to build a firm foundation for APARC’s activities, and it is largely through his efforts

that I am able to announce the most important gift in the history of our Center.

This remarkable gift is from Walter H. Shorenstein, long our Center’s most faithful

and active supporter. When added to his existing pledge over the next few years, it

will create a permanent endowment for our Center’s expanding research, publications,

and outreach work in the decades to come. In recognition of Walter’s generosity, and

our gratitude, we are delighted to announce that henceforth APARC will be known as

the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, or Shorenstein APARC.

In handing off the directorship to my successor, Gi-Wook Shin, I am pleased to

know that he will bring the same entrepreneurial drive to expanding Shorenstein APARC

that he has shown so successfully in building our Korean Studies Program. As I prepare

to move back into civilian life, I would like to thank my colleagues, our Center’s superb

staff, and David Holloway and Chip Blacker, the Freeman Spogli Institute directors

who have given me such staunch support over the years.

Andrew G. Walder, Director

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The cover of this 2004–05 Center Overview highlights three words: transition, devel-

opment, and cooperation. Though sweeping in tone, these words nonetheless encapsulate

three specific themes that we at Shorenstein APARC are pursuing. I am delighted to be

assuming the directorship of the Center on September 1, 2005, and look forward to what

I know will be a busy, productive three years.

The year 2004–05 was a year of transition. At the Center, through the generosity of

Walter H. Shorenstein, we officially changed our name to the Walter H. Shorenstein

Asia-Pacific Research Center, or Shorenstein APARC. Walter’s vision and commitment

to our mission are celebrated in these pages; he shares our dedication to understanding

the events that are reshaping the Asia-Pacific region. The rise of China, the North Korean

nuclear crisis, globalization and outsourcing of jobs to South Asia, Japan’s economic

recovery, the future of U.S.-Asia alliances—we study these and other important issues,

with an interdisciplinary approach that continues to set Shorenstein APARC apart.

Further, we engage in varied outreach activities, from publications to public policy,

which help explain and guide Asia’s many transitions.

With respect to development, I have many new plans to enhance and enlarge the

Center’s core identity while encouraging its programs. Formerly, the Shorenstein Forum

served as the main Center-wide program. Thanks to Walter’s gift, we have folded the

Forum’s activities into the larger Center that now bears his name. Beginning in fall 2005,

we will revive our central Contemporary Asia Seminar Series, in which professionals

Looking Forward

“Shorenstein APARC is an immensely collegial place, where scholars and practitionersfrom many disciplines and backgrounds meet to tackle real-world challenges.”

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in the fields of public and foreign policy, journalism, and academia share their perspec-tives. Also in fall 2005, we inaugurate the Asian Leaders’ Forum, which will regularlyconvene senior leaders from across Asia—policymakers, and business and social prac-titioners who are the region’s “rising stars”—to exchange ideas on current political,economic, and social dynamics. We expect to host two to three speakers per quarter.

Yet another component of our development strategy will be a new annual tour ofselected Asian nations. Designed to enhance the Center’s visibility in Asia and to connectour scholars with their counterparts across the region, this “road show” (to use the SiliconValley parlance) will include Shorenstein APARC faculty and researchers, as well as keymembers of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), of which we are apart. We also hope that this important tour will assist us as we develop our fundraisingefforts in Asia.

Shorenstein APARC is an immensely collegial place, where scholars and practitionersfrom many disciplines and backgrounds meet to tackle real-world challenges. Suchcooperation is vital, not only to the life of the Center, but also to the likelihood that thesechallenges can be met and mastered. In recent years, Shorenstein APARC has lost facultymembers in key areas of expertise, and we must now cooperatively focus our efforts onrecruiting more faculty to rebuild our strength. Searches are upcoming to identify andhire specialists on Korea, Japan, and China, and we are also working to create posi-tions that address other urgent problems, including healthcare policy.

As ever, we encourage our supporters to participate in the Center’s activities, and wewelcome new friends to help advance our mission.

Gi-Wook Shin, September 2005

Photo: Walter H. Shorenstein

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our understanding of contemporary East Asian

affairs—a set of issues about which he feels pas-

sionately. We are honored and humbled by Walter’s

generosity to Stanford and to the Freeman Spogli

Institute for International Studies.”

Former Secretary of Defense William Perry

and his wife, Lee, could not attend the dinner,

but composed one of their famous limericks

(quoted above) in honor of and affection for

their longtime friend. Below are excerpts from

the remarks delivered that evening, which speak

not only of Walter Shorenstein’s remarkable

philanthropy, but also of the vital role that

APARC—now Shorenstein APARC—will play

in Stanford’s International Initiative and the

greater development of the Asia-Pacific region.

At a gala dinner in Stanford’s Bechtel Conference

Center on May 31, 2005, the Asia-Pacific

Research Center announced that it would be

renamed the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific

Research Center, in honor of its most stead-

fast benefactor. The change became effective

September 1, 2005.

Warmly praising the announcement, APARC

founder Daniel Okimoto, outgoing APARC

director Andrew Walder, Stanford President

John Hennessy, and FSI director Coit Blacker

each spoke of Shorenstein’s clear vision for and

unwavering commitment to the affairs of the

Asia-Pacific region. Blacker noted that “With this

magnificent gift, Walter Shorenstein has once

again made evident his commitment to advance

Salute toWalter H. Shorenstein

To Walter(a limerick from Lee and Bill Perry, March 4, 2005)

I rise to give thanks to Walter,Whose support for Stanford won’t falter;

When the going gets rough,And most say “enough,”

Walter stands like the rock of Gibraltar!

8 salute to walter h. shorenstein

When I was considering my remarks for tonight,I was struck both by Walter’s remarkable gen-erosity and his prescience.

As many of you know, I recently announceda new multidisciplinary initiative in internationalaffairs under the leadership of Chip Blacker andengineering professor Elisabeth Paté-Cornell.Stanford is already one of the great internationaluniversities, and by unifying and strengtheningour efforts, we acknowledge that this universityhas a special role to play.

We have become one of the leaders in this fieldthanks in no small part to Walter Shorenstein’svisionary philanthropy. Early on, Walter rec-ognized the significance of what was at stake inthe Asia-Pacific region. For nearly twenty years,he has supported us as we strengthened inter-national studies at Stanford.

A longtime champion of Asian-Americanrelations, he was among APARC’s earliestsupporters. Since 1995, he has served on theBoard of Visitors of the Stanford Institute forInternational Studies. In 1996, he established the

Walter H. Shorenstein Forum for Asia-PacificStudies at APARC, providing invaluable supportto scholars who work to advance understand-ing between Asia and the United States. TheShorenstein Forum has made it possible for us tohost senior scholars and distinguished guests,such as policymakers and government officialswho shape the future of the Asia-Pacific region.Thanks to Walter’s considerable generosity, weare also able to offer Shorenstein Fellowships tojunior scholars doing research on Asia.

Today we are entering a new era in the fieldof Asia-Pacific studies. Just as Walter’s supportin the early years of APARC has had a pro-found impact, so too will this gift. I have nodoubt that the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford Universitywill be the place to study the issues of con-temporary Asia. On behalf of the university—and with the pride and warmth you have sorightly earned—we salute you, Walter, for yourextraordinary vision, leadership, and generosityto Stanford.

John Hennessy, President, Stanford University

“I have no doubt that the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at StanfordUniversity will be the place to study the issues of contemporary Asia.”

salute to walter h. shorenstein 9

Walter’s generous support has been crucial inbuilding APARC. This new gift comes at a crucialpoint in APARC’s development, and I hope thatin future years we will see it as a catalyst of anew era in the study of contemporary East Asiaat Stanford. I say this is a crucial turning pointbecause, as Walter and everyone else connectedwith our Center and FSI knows, our faculty isin the early stages of a major rebuilding process.Tom Rohlen and his family have endowed a newchair of Japanese politics, and a search to fillthat position began this year. Gi-Wook Shin hasraised endowment funds to create two additionalchairs of Korean Studies that will add strengthto the area, and when these positions are filledwe will have one of the strongest programs onKorea in the country. We have raised funds topartially endow a senior fellowship in ChinesePolitics in memory of our colleague MichelOksenberg, and we hope to raise additional fundsto make this a permanently endowed position.

Walter’s gift, and the renaming of our Center,should be understood in this context. It is indeeda crucial period for the study of the contem-porary Asia-Pacific region at Stanford. This gift,I believe, symbolizes Stanford’s rededication tothis vital area. It signals to our peers that Stanfordis committed to the major effort that will benecessary, and challenges the university to rein-vigorate and reinvent Stanford’s strengths on theregion. Finally, the resources this gift makesavailable for conferences, colloquia, research,and publications will help make Stanford anattractive place for the next generation of faculty.

So you see, Walter, some of us impute a level ofsignificance to your gift that you may not haveimagined. On behalf of my colleagues, let meexpress my gratitude, my respect, and my hopethat we will be able to seize the opportunityyou have given us and fulfill APARC’s promiseas one of the nation’s leading centers for thestudy of contemporary Asian affairs.

Andrew Walder, Director, Shorenstein APARC

“Walter has an unusually acute sense of how crucial our country’s relationship with thenations of East Asia is, how important it is for accurate and balanced knowledge aboutthe East Asian region to be available to policymakers, and how our policies can unfortu-nately be negatively influenced by inaccurate and biased reporting in the mass media.”

10 salute to walter h. shorenstein

Today, there are eight core faculty members—with authorization from the university for fivemore full-time faculty appointments. APARCnow operates on a $2 million annual budget.There are nine permanent staff members. Wehave established a strong pre- and postdoctoralfellowship program and an APARC publicationseries with Stanford University Press. APARCfaculty have produced a spate of books, articles,and reports since its inception.

APARC would never have developed as rapidlyor as fully without Walter H. Shorenstein’s sup-port. He has been the kind of patron saint thatacademics everywhere dream about finding—a generous donor who attaches no strings, whois clearly committed to the intellectual missionof APARC, and who refuses to meddle in, or tomicromanage APARC’s research agenda, out-reach activities, or administration. APARC is theenvy of all academic entrepreneurs who yearn tobe supported but left alone to do their own work.

APARC was founded in 1977 by four Stanfordfaculty members and two research directors. Wehad no staff. No central offices. Only a modestgrant of $14,000 from the U.S. Department ofState provided the seed money to get APARCstarted. Our first research project dealt withthe security of the Korean Peninsula. Securityissues, U.S. policies in Asia, economic devel-opment, competition in high technology, andJapan’s paradigm of a dynamic political econo-my were early focal points of APARC’s inter-disciplinary research.

Over time, APARC built an institutional infra-structure. It grew steadily in terms of faculty,researchers, visiting scholars, visiting fellows,and staff.

In 2000, APARC met Walter H. Shorenstein,and in him, we found a kindred spirit, like-minded visionary, intellectual colleague, andstaunch supporter. He became a patron saint,and APARC flourished.

Daniel Okimoto, Founder and Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC

“Walter H. Shorenstein has been the kind of patron saint that academics everywheredream about finding — a generous donor who attaches no strings, who is clearlycommitted to the intellectual mission of APARC, and who refuses to meddle in, or tomicromanage APARC’s research agenda, outreach activities, or administration.”

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It is striking how rapidly China-consciousness has grown in the United States. This results from the floodof goods from China in our stores as well as from its increased role in economics and politics globally.

Although American consumers and those elsewhere benefit from the flood of goods marked “Made inChina,” there is also widespread nervousness, indeed hostility, to its rise. This was manifest in the negativereaction of many members of Congress to the offer by CNOOC to take over the UNOCAL oil company.Some complaints are reasonable (such as China’s poor protection of intellectual property) and some arenot (such as its currency policy). But there is no denying its disruptive impacts.

In the past it dominated much of Asia; its culture radiated powerfully. But China fell behind as the Westcreated and applied science and technology from the sixteenth century on. Indeed it stagnated; accordingto the economic historian Angus Maddison, Chinese per capita GDP in 1950 ($439) was lower than in1000 ($450). And for over one hundred years, it suffered the indignity of Western countries intruding intoits coastal areas, and then from Japanese invasion.

China’s dramatic change is recent. Only twenty-five years ago, China was still recovering from the CulturalRevolution and beginning to liberalize its economy. It has grown since then at about 9 percent a year, arate unique for such a populous country. Today, commodity prices, interest rates, inflation, and wages aroundthe world are influenced by actions in China. Because of gains in trade, China’s rise does not generallycome at the expense of others, but losers—producers everywhere—do emerge. However, its role shouldnot be exaggerated; much of what China does is to import goods, add some value (often a small amount),and export them. There is no way China will dominate all manufacturing.

At long last, the country is also overcoming its longstanding deficit in science and technology. China issecond only to the United States in terms of number of Ph.D.s produced annually (and many U.S. Ph.D.s areawarded to ethnic Chinese). In technology, Chinese scientists co-discovered the rice genome sequence. AndChinese authors are second, behind their U.S. counterparts and having overtaken Japan, in publishing articlesin international journals on nanotechnology. Although still a poor country, China is the world’s largestmarket for cellphones and fixed telephone line subscribers, the number two market for cable subscribers andPC ownership, and the number one growth market for broadband direct subscriber lines (DSL).

Interest in China within Asia and elsewhere is growing, as shown by the increasing study of the Chineselanguage, and the considerable press coverage of Chinese movies. It is also safe to predict that the world isgoing to see hordes of Chinese tourists in the next decades.

China’s geopolitical weight, likewise, is growing. It clearly aims to become the dominant power, at leastin East Asia, and perhaps in all of Asia, though India represents a significant long-term obstacle to thatgoal. China need not throw its weight around to exert influence, and its neighbors increasingly recognizethis reality. This, of course, does not exclude the possibility of conflict, but one can only hope that wisdomwill prevent such misjudgments from being made.

“Although American consumers and those elsewhere benefit from the flood of goodsmarked ‘Made in China,’ there is also widespread nervousness, indeed hostility, to its rise.”

hot topic China’s Rise Is Disrupting — and Benefiting — the World

Henry S. RowenCo-Director, Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE); Director-Emeritus,Shorenstein APARC; FSI Senior Fellow, Emeritus

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Shorenstein APARC’s mission to promote deeperunderstanding of the Asia-Pacific region wouldnot be possible without its valued friends andsupporters.

As the Asia-Pacific faces new challenges,and the region’s impact on the global stageincreases, new research directions and policyemerge, offering opportunities for ShorensteinAPARC affiliates and increased need for theircommitments. Shorenstein APARC relies ongifts and grants, as well as corporate sponsor-ships, to support its varied research, training,and outreach goals.

Building for the FutureThrough a variety of giving opportunities,Shorenstein APARC encourages individuals,corporations, and government and nonprofitorganizations to become involved in theCenter’s mission and intellectual life. Friendsof the Center are a vital part of the ShorensteinAPARC community. Many attend Center events,

strengthen the Center’s network of contacts,and offer guidance on key initiatives.

The Center welcomes gifts to seed newresearch initiatives, fund innovative projects,and allocate funds to best advance its researchagenda. For example, gifts from ShorensteinAPARC donors help to underwrite the followingvital activities: • Faculty recruitment• Graduate student research and teaching• Undergraduate fieldwork• Fellowships open to international scholars,

students, and practitioners• Support for visiting scholars from academia,

and the public and private sectors• New program development, such as the

Asian Leaders Forum• Interdisciplinary faculty appointments, such

as the William J. Perry Professorship on contemporary Korea and the Thomas P. Rohlen Professorship in contemporary Japanese politics.

SupportingShorenstein APARC

“Walter Shorenstein’s investment in APARC was the functional equivalent of Series Bfinancing from a blue-chip venture capital fund for a fledgling start-up in Silicon Valley.It gave APARC a long ‘runway’ on which to achieve a steep lift-off.”Daniel Okimoto, Founder and Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC

supporting shorenstein aparc 13

In addition, the Center runs a vibrantCorporate Affiliates Program, which is availablefor companies interested in expanding their net-works of connections with Asian counterparts,or in early access to Shorenstein APARC’sdynamic research.

Securing the EndowmentIn 2005, the Walter H. and Phyllis J. ShorensteinFoundation pledged to help increase the endow-ment of Shorenstein APARC. Through a seriesof unrestricted gifts, the Foundation providedShorenstein APARC with a “long runway,” asDaniel Okimoto notes above, and, at the sametime, challenged the Center to match thosecontributions. Every gift that ShorensteinAPARC receives brings the Center closer to itsgoal of matching Walter Shorenstein’s gener-ous donations.

As Stanford University’s International Initiativetakes shape in 2005–06, more attention will focuson Shorenstein APARC, and the crucial regionalperspective that it brings to the Initiative’s keythemes of security, governance, and human well-being. And, with the continued help of its manysteadfast supporters—as well as new friends whorecognize Asia’s importance in the world order—Shorenstein APARC will complete the match, andthereby secure an endowment of $30 million.

Every Gift Makes a DifferenceTo become a friend of Shorenstein APARC,please contact Shiho Harada Barbir, associatedirector, at 650-725-7463, or sbarbir@stan-ford.edu. Your contribution will help to supportthe Center’s research on societal transition,development, U.S.-Asia relations, and regionalcooperation. Gifts to Shorenstein APARC aretax-deductible under applicable rules. ShorensteinAPARC and its parent organization, the FreemanSpogli Institute for International Studies, arepart of Stanford University’s tax-exempt statusas a Section 501(c) (3) public charity.

For information on joining Shorenstein APARCas a corporate affiliate, please contact DeniseMasumoto, manager of corporate relations, at650-725-2706, or masumoto@stanford.edu.

Annual gifts of $25 and up may also bemade online to support Shorenstein APARC.Further information is available on theShorenstein APARC website at http://APARC.stanford.edu. These gifts provide unrestrictedsupport for crucial programs and enhance theCenter’s ability to respond quickly and appro-priately to research proposals addressingemerging issues in the Asia-Pacific region.

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Friends of the Walter H. ShorensteinAsia-Pacific Research CenterShorenstein APARC gratefully acknowledgesthe following benefactors for their support in2004–05. Listed below are individuals, corpo-rations, foundations, and institutions whosecontributions were received and recorded betweenSeptember 1, 2004 and August 31, 2005.

$100,000 and aboveThe Alfred P. Sloan FoundationThe Industrial Technology Research Institute The Pantech GroupWalter H. Shorenstein

$50,000 to $100,000Patty and William F. MillerSumitomo Corporation, Japan

$10,000 to $50,000Agilent Technologies, Inc.Asahi Shimbun, JapanAtheros Communications, Inc.Chong-Moon LeeDevelopment Bank of Japan

GTL LimitedHewlett-PackardJapan Patent OfficeThe Korea Research FoundationKumamoto Prefectural Government, JapanMinistry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI),

JapanMinistry of Finance, JapanPetroChina Company, Ltd.Reliance Industries, Ltd., IndiaShizuoka Prefectural Government, JapanTaipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office,

San FranciscoTokyo Electric Power CompanyTomoye N. Takahashi

$1,000 to $10,000American India FoundationSabeer BhatiaNissokenPanjwani-Rashid Family FoundationThe Resource Group, Inc.Martha SuzukiSpecsoft Consulting, Inc.Bijesh ThakkerHans Tung

Donors

The generosity of past supporters, as well as those new to its donor rolls, enables theWalter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center to pursue and expand its missionof interdisciplinary research, education, and outreach on contemporary Asia. Withouttheir continued generosity, the Center’s important work and continued success wouldnot be possible.

donors 15

Honor Roll Lifetime Contributions to the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-PacificResearch CenterThe Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific ResearchCenter gratefully acknowledges those listedbelow for their support with contributionstotaling $100,000 or more since the inceptionof the Freeman Spogli Institute for InternationalStudies, of which the Center is a part.

$5,000,000 and aboveWalter H. Shorenstein

$1,000,000 and aboveChong-Moon LeeThomas and Shelagh RohlenHenri Hiroyuki and Tomoye N. TakahashiThe Pantech GroupTong Yang Business GroupJerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki

$500,000 to $1,000,000Daniel (Wen Chi) Chen and

Su-Sheng Hong Chen

$100,000 to $500,000Zia ChishtiBarbara HillmanThe Industrial Technology Research Institute

Foundation Honor Roll: Lifetime giving$1,000,000 and aboveThe Alfred P. Sloan FoundationThe Henry Luce FoundationThe Korea Foundation

Corporate Affiliates Honor Roll:Participation Five Years and Above

Shorenstein APARC’s Corporate AffiliatesProgram was founded in 1982. The programintroduces Asia-based fellows to Americanlife and institutions; all fellows also completea research project during their time atShorenstein APARC. The program’s 250-plusalumni now occupy distinguished positions inthe government and private sectors of Japan,China, Korea, and India.

Organizations in the Corporate AffiliatesProgram maintain longstanding relationshipswith the Center. Shorenstein APARC deeplyvalues their commitment and support, and isdelighted to recognize those affiliates thathave participated in this important programfor five or more consecutive years.

Asahi Shimbun, JapanDevelopment Bank of JapanJapan Patent OfficeKansai Electric Power Company, JapanMinistry of Economy, Trade, and Industry

(METI), JapanMinistry of Finance, JapanTokyo Electric Power Company

Photo: Shorenstein APARC faculty, researchers, visitors, students, and staff listen to Ambassador Charles Kartman, Executive Directorof the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), deliver a lecture about North Korea’s nuclear diplomacy.

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Societal Transition

Debating Islamism (new project)

What’s in a name? Should U.S. policymakersshun the word “Islamism” for fear of implyingthat Islam is a violent religion, which wouldalienate moderate Muslims? Or should theywelcome but diversify the term to include non-violent agendas? Or is it naïve to suggest thatone can be an “Islamist” and a democrat atthe same time?

So far, Donald Emmerson has conductedresearch, including interviews with scholarsand activists in Southeast Asia, the MiddleEast, and Europe, that favors a validation of“Islamism” as a term acknowledging bothusages: the enlisting of Islam to justify violentmeans and radical ends, but also its invocationon behalf of nonviolent means and democratic

ends. That diversified understanding, Emmersonhopes, can help obviate a clash of civilizationswhile locating the struggle over political reli-gion where it is mainly taking place—amongMuslims themselves. In cooperation withother scholars, an edited volume—DebatingIslamism—is planned.

The Impact and Implications ofDemographic Trends (new project)Behind Asia’s pace-setting development as adynamic, vitally important region, many factors,both near- and long-term, are at work. Someof the near-term factors are hard to anticipate,owing to high levels of uncertainty, volatility,and the nature of unexpected events and suddencrises. However, because of the macro-levelbreadth and incremental speed of several long-term forces at work, it is easier to predict what

Research

“The key to generating original and timely knowledge about Asia,” notes ShorensteinAPARC director Andrew Walder, “is to encourage focused interaction among the worldsof scholarship, business, and government.” Shorenstein APARC research ranges withinthese worlds and cuts across traditional academic disciplines to provide broad, deepperspective. Below are summaries of new and ongoing projects, arranged according tothe Center’s key research themes: societal transition, development and globalization,U.S.-Asia relations, and regional cooperation.

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may happen over time if long-established trendsare not corrected. Included in this category oflong-run trends are demographic patterns ofpopulation growth, or shrinkage.

Of the volatile mix of complex factors, few,if any, are as discernible, as relentless, or as con-sequential as demographic patterns. Detailedand accurate data are readily available on thekey variables of demographic trends—birthand death rates, number of women at child-bearing age, fertility rates, marital patterns,education and employment of women, numberof children per household, and life expectancy.Moreover, demographic trends change relativelyslowly over time—unlike such macroeconomicvariables as growth rates, fiscal and currentaccount deficits, and currency exchange rates.

Demographic change fundamentally affectsthe structure and dynamics of national politicaleconomies. Aging populations in Japan, SouthKorea, and down the road, in China, will imposeenormous healthcare and welfare burdens ontheir economies. It will impact their labor andcapital markets, which, in turn, will affectsavings and spending, wages, productivity gains,and aggregate growth rates. It would be diffi-cult to find an area of greater centrality andcausal salience than demographic change. Indeed,by looking through the lens of demography, we

can project several driving forces of change inAsia’s varied political economies.

Daniel Okimoto has launched a long-termresearch project on the impact of demographicchange in Asia. Okimoto has spent the past yearcollecting basic data, gathering research mate-rials, locating the best demographic researchcurrently under way, and establishing contactwith leading research centers and individualscholars throughout the region. Together withother colleagues at Shorenstein APARC, andover the next several years, demographic trendswill become a focal point of research collabo-ration, covering Japan, South Korea, China,Indonesia, and India.

Regionalism in Southeast Asia (new project)Anticipating the 40th anniversary of theAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)in 2007—an apt occasion to evaluate the group—Donald Emmerson undertook new work ontwo ASEAN-related topics: first, the implicationsof the Asian financial crisis and the war on terroron the relative utility of differing academicapproaches to regionalism in Southeast Asia;and second, the utility of ASEAN itself.

The first project yielded a surprising con-clusion. Emmerson found that the economic

research 19

turbulence of 1997–99 and the subsequent riseof perceived terrorist threats in Southeast Asiahad enhanced the plausibility of two sharplyopposing ways of understanding ASEAN:traditional realism on the one hand, and novelconstructivism on the other.

Realism assumes international insecurity asan objective condition of world politics and isskeptical of international organizations’ ability toovercome it. The economic and terrorist shocksof the late 1990s and early 2000s, which tookASEAN by surprise and which the Associationwas powerless to remedy, illustrated insecurityand thus vindicated realism. Constructivism, incontrast, highlights the causal power of subjec-tive ideas and stresses contingency and change inglobal affairs. Attributed to free-market funda-mentalism and intolerant Islamism, respectively,the financial crisis and religious terrorismcould be made to fit constructivist inclinations.Constructivist, too, were ensuing efforts torescue ASEAN from irrelevance by reanimatingit with fresh ideas, including arguments overwhether the Association was, was not, or couldever become a “security community.”

The second project on ASEAN reviewed the“security community” controversy. ASEAN’smost enthusiastic fans overlooked its failingsand hailed its conflict-minimizing methods—the vaunted “ASEAN Way”—as a new andsuperior kind of international politics. In theireyes, ASEAN already was a successful securitycommunity. The Association’s severest critics,conversely, ignored its achievements and dis-missed its rhetoric of cooperation as a façadeconcealing failure. To them, ASEAN was not andcould not become a security community.

Emmerson’s research, including interviewsin Southeast Asia, supported the need to distinguish between two kinds of security com-munity: a “thin” or descriptive instance whosemember states share both a sense of communityand the expectation of security; and a “thick”or explanatory version in which that senseof community has been shown to cause theexpectation of security. ASEAN is a thin security

community. But it is not a thick one—giventhe power of realist explanations to account forthe intramural peace that ASEAN’s membershave indeed enjoyed.

In 2005 Emmerson’s findings on ASEAN werepublished in the Japanese Journal of PoliticalScience; Pacific Review; and an edited volume,Order and Security in Southeast Asia.

The (South) Korean National Assembly Project (new project)(South) Korea has seen significant politicalchanges over the last two decades, especiallysince its 1987 democratization. The nation hasestablished civilian rule, achieved a peacefultransfer of power, and enacted democraticreform measures. More recently, Korea haswitnessed a generational change in the powerelite. During the last election, younger liberalsreplaced many of the National Assembly’sconservative stalwarts. This generational changeand ideological shift have important implicationsnot only for the nation itself, but also for othercountries, including the United States. Throughthe National Assembly Project, Gi-Wook Shinand researchers in Shorenstein APARC’s KoreanStudies Program aim to better understandsuch implications.

Researchers are collaborating with variousgovernment agencies and media sources toassemble a database that encompasses threetypes of data on the National Assembly andits membership. The first category consists ofassembly members’ biographies: educationalbackgrounds, personal relationships, and workhistories. The second describes the districts andelections voting them into office. A third typedescribes members’ committee membershipsand voting patterns once in office.

By examining the connections among thesecategories, Shin and his colleagues hope toexplain how generational and ideological changewill affect Assembly votes on major issues. Forinstance, many of the new assemblymen wereonce student activists protesting against Korea’spre-1988 dictatorships. Now that they have

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attained power, will they continue to advocateliberal agendas, or become more conservative?Do the new assemblymen come from differentwalks of life than their predecessors? If so, howwill it affect their voting patterns? The answersto these questions will impact issues rangingfrom Korean industrial policy to the future ofthe U.S.-ROK alliance.

The National Assembly Project representsan opportunity to answer other longstandingquestions about South Korean politics. Forinstance, school and family ties are particularlyimportant in Korean society. Considering howSouth Korean political parties have been unstablecoalitions built around dominant personalities,how do social networks affect party formation?What are the implications for Korean democ-racy? Since the project database brings togethersocial and political data, researchers can considerboth sides of these issues.

Just as importantly, the database will enablecross-national comparisons between SouthKorea and other East Asian democracies, par-ticularly Taiwan and Japan. In summer 2005,Shin held a joint workshop with Japan scholarsto begin to undertake such comparisons. Thislong-term project involves postdoctoral researchfellows, graduate students, and visiting fellowsat Stanford. In the coming year, the team intendsto analyze the data and write up key findingsas journal articles. A book on political changesin Korea is also planned.

Challenging Assumptions about theChinese Cultural RevolutionIn recent years, a large volume of documentarymaterials from the 1960s has become avail-able to scholars of the Chinese CulturalRevolution. Andrew Walder has examinedthese materials in order to explore previouslyunknown aspects of this tumultuous era, andto reconsider reigning scholarly interpretationsof what occurred and why.

One product of this research is a databasebuilt from information in roughly 2,000 ruralcounty annals published in China since the

late 1980s. These sources provide new infor-mation about the magnitude and timing ofpolitical events nationwide from 1966 to1971. Preliminary analyses yield an estimateof roughly one million dead and 25 millionpersecuted in rural China alone. Most ofthese casualties did not occur during the periodof armed factional conflict and local civilwar. Instead, they occurred after politicalorder was re-established by the local military-civilian regimes that also orchestrated massivepurge campaigns.

A second focus of this research is an exami-nation of student Red Guard newspapers andwall posters from the city of Beijing during 1966and 1967. These sources permit re-examinationof the social interpretations of Red Guardpolitics that have dominated scholarship onthe subject. One recent product is a paper thatreconsiders the role of a famous “conservative”Red Guard leader from a high official family,long thought to be an opponent of more radicalstudents from less privileged backgrounds. Infact, this student leader harbored strong griev-ances against his party superiors, and supporteda thorough purge. Moreover, his factionalopponents were led by students from familybackgrounds identical to his own. The case studyundermines the distinction between “conser-vative” and “radical” factions central to pastinterpretations of the Cultural Revolution. It alsosubverts the claim that “conservative” factionswere not only loyal to the party apparatus,but also from privileged families that opposedradicals from less privileged backgrounds.

The project aims to develop analyses ofcollective action in which participants are notassumed to have fixed identities and interests,and in which the need to avoid loss—ratherthan gain advantage — drives their actions.These ideas run counter to the mainstream ofsociological thinking about such topics. Theymay have broader applicability to the emergenceof ethnic warfare and other forms of civil strifein collapsing states.

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The Bush administration’s policy toward North Korea is undergoing a welcome mid-course adjustment.The latest round of Six-Party talks yielded no agreement, but they displayed the appearance and “feel” ofserious diplomacy.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice obviously enjoys greater latitude from the White House on this issuethan did her predecessor. Ambassador Chris Hill has engaged in extensive bilateral discussions with hisNorth Korean counterparts. Administration leaders have avoided name-calling or pejorative references toKim Jong-Il, and have tacitly endorsed a generous offer by ROK authorities to deliver electricity supplies tothe North. Washington has acknowledged that the DPRK is “sovereign,” denied that “regime change” is itsobjective, and signaled a readiness to provide security assurances and tangible economic help to Pyongyang.

These encouraging signs have fueled guarded optimism that a diplomatic solution may now be within therealm of possibility. Perhaps. But it would be foolish to underestimate the intractability of the core issues.

First, the central uncertainty still revolves around the intentions of the North Korean regime. At the Six-Partytalks, DPRK representatives professed an interest in a “non-nuclear Korea.” Yet for four decades Kim Jong-Il(and his father before him) relentlessly sought to develop a nuclear arsenal. Is it likely that he will now relin-quish a program he has regarded as a deterrent essential to his regime’s survival, a prime source of diplomaticleverage, and possibly a necessary means of mollifying a key domestic constituency—the military establishment?

Second, there are the consequences of pervasive, mutual distrust. In light of the North’s clandestine viola-tions of the 1994 Agreed Framework, no American president could risk presenting to Congress a newagreement that relied on Kim Jong-Il’s word. The efficacy of any new accord, therefore, depends on theconfidence its verification arrangements inspire in Washington. Will the North Koreans accept the robustand intrusive monitoring system that Americans are destined to require?

Third, key Bush administration officials have consistently trashed the Framework Accord as insufficientlycomprehensive, too easily reversible, inadequate in its verification provisions, imprudent in its pledge to supplythe North with sophisticated light water reactors, and flawed by its failure to provide the North’s neighborsa role in assuring compliance with its terms.

The quest for a more rigorous agreement logically demands the mobilization of even greater negotiatingleverage. That can only be achieved by translating the aim of a “non-nuclear Korea” into a coordinatedstrategy for attaining that objective. To date, such a “united front” has proven elusive, though its requirements—greater firmness from China and South Korea, and greater flexibility from the United States and Japan—are self-evident.

The challenges should be viewed as obstacles to surmount rather than excuses for delay or inaction. In theend, hope that an agreement can be achieved rests on two plausible, but unproven propositions. First, NorthKorea is a failing state; it already possesses a perfectly adequate conventional deterrent. Second, nations aspowerful as the United States, Japan, China, South Korea, and Russia possess the wherewithal to persuade,cajole, or coerce the North out of its nuclear program if they can muster the necessary perseverance, patience,flexibility, firmness, and clarity of purpose.

“The efficacy of any new accord depends on the confidence its verification arrangementsinspire in Washington.”

hot topic The North Korean Nuclear Crisis

Michael H. ArmacostShorenstein Distinguished Fellow at Shorenstein APARC; Former U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines (1982–84) and Japan (1989–93)

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Indonesia in TransitionsIndonesian strongman Suharto resigned inMay 1998 in the wake of a combined political,economic, and environmental crisis. Since thenit has been conventional to describe the countryas being “in transition.” But that begs thesequestions: Just what are Indonesians transitingtoward? And how will we know when thetrip is over? Based on ongoing research intothese questions, Donald Emmerson offersthese answers.

The multiple dimensions of the original crisisimply at least six different national goals. Listedroughly in order, from the most to the leastachieved as of August 2005, the six are: terri-torial integrity, functioning democracy, politicalstability, economic recovery, good governance,and environmental health.

If the chance that Indonesia might breakapart had worried foreign and local observersalike in 1999–2000, by 2005 those fears hadgreatly subsided. Confidence rose as politicalviolence declined. In August 2005, as part ofthe peace agreement it signed with the nationalgovernment in, the Aceh Freedom Movementagreed in effect not to secede from Indonesia.Papua remained restive, but mainly within anIndonesian context.

In 2004–05, an unprecedented series of freeand peaceful national and local elections erecteda government led by Indonesia’s first-ever directlyelected president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono,known as SBY. His popularity, charisma, andproactive style, evident in Emmerson’s inter-views with him in 2005, bolstered the odds foran improved—more democratic, more stable—political future.

But if by 2005 a political corner had beenturned, Indonesia’s halting recovery from theAsian financial crisis of 1997–99 remained atrisk. Foreign direct investment had begun toreturn. But in 2005 steeply rising world oilprices swelled politically popular state energysubsidies to fiscally crippling levels. Meanwhile,severe air pollution from illegal fires to clearland—a haze dense and vast enough to havedamaged and angered neighboring countries in1997—had become an almost perennial disaster.

Installing democracy has not assured goodgovernance and the rule of law. The weakestlink in the apparatus of reform may be thecountry’s courts. Venal judges can be bought.Violators of human rights have gone unpun-ished, or underpunished. Legal reform is crucial and overdue. Knowing this, SBY hasused the presidency as a bully pulpit to campaign against corruption.

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SBY’s government is being challenged notonly to revive Indonesia’s underperformingeconomy. He faces simultaneous pressures toreduce poverty, improve security, enhanceefficiency, and abolish impunity. To call thismultitasking Herculean is to belabor the obvious.He may not succeed. But so far at least he hasbeen trying, with welcome energy and innovation,to make a difference.

Indonesia is not in transition. It is in transi-tions. The political one has made a reversionto autocracy extremely unlikely. But economicprogress has been mixed. Environmentaldamage and related blights—poverty, corrup-tion, mismanagement—still urgently needremedy and reform. Eventually these severaltransitions, proceeding at different speeds, willimplicate one another, for better or worse. Forin the long run, if it is to succeed, democracymust deliver—more welfare, more justice, a safersociety, a better life. That is a heavy burdento place on the shoulders of Indonesia’s newpresident, however refreshingly dynamic andwell intentioned he may be.

A lengthy backgrounder for these conclusionsis forthcoming as a chapter in Indonesia: TheGreat Transition.

Transitions in Social Stratificationand Elite Opportunity in China Andrew Walder continues to analyze data froma large, nationally representative survey of6,400 Chinese households, conducted jointlyin 1997 with sociologists at the University ofCalifornia, Los Angeles, and Chinese People’sUniversity. The first of its kind in China, thesurvey collected detailed information on occu-pations, income, and housing conditions forfamilies, as well as complete career and edu-cational histories for respondents and lessdetailed histories for spouses, parents, andgrandparents.

Thus far, the project has yielded two papers.The first looked at the impact of kinship tiesto local party leaders in generating householdincome in rural China over the past two decades.One unexpected finding was that cadre advan-tages are largest in the most privatized andcommercialized rural regions. This is becausecadre households participate in private businessat the highest rates in these regions. The linkbetween increased cadre incomes and the priva-tization process leads to a situation the reverseof what many have expected—cadres’ new-found prosperity in the market economy hasnot led to defection from the party or fromrural office-holding.

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A second paper directly addressed the idea—widespread in scholarly work and in recenttransition reports published by the World Bank—that the economic advantages of elite insidersin transitional economies decline as marketreform and privatization increase. In fact, thefate of former communist elites depends on twoseparate processes: the speed with which com-munist political hierarchies are dismantled, andthe constraints on asset appropriation in thecourse of reform. China has maintained its polit-ical hierarchies even as it has erected strongbarriers to asset appropriation. In China andVietnam, where communist parties remain inpower while sharply restricting the pace ofprivatization, the old elites remain in powerand can draw larger incomes from office, buttheir ability to appropriate assets for privatebusiness undertakings is curtailed. So far, Chinaand Vietnam have not generated a new privatebusiness oligarchy out of the old political elite.But this also means that these market-orientedAsian regimes have yet to undergo the politicaland economic transformations already com-pleted in many postcommunist states. Howthese future transitions are handled will affectthe fate of China’s elites and will likely influencethe country’s future economic growth.

Development and Globalization

The Greater China Networks ResearchProgram (new project)The rise of Greater China is contributing to amajor paradigm change in high technologyindustries. From research and development(R&D) to manufacturing to marketing, keyactivities are migrating to—as well as within—Greater China. Motivations reach beyondthe well-known lure of lower costs: the questis for higher value-added productivity, growthmarkets, and pools of talent. Greater China isparticipating in complex, globally integratedvalue-chains that transcend national borders.As high technology activities become more dis-tributed geographically, players in Greater Chinaare coalescing where R&D, manufacturingexpertise, and markets are strongest. This newparadigm is already evident in some industries,but many companies and governments have yetto realize its full implications.

To examine these issues, researchers in theStanford Project on Regions of Innovation andEntrepreneurship (SPRIE) have launched thethree-year Greater China Networks (GCN)Research Program. Its mission is advance theunderstanding of the innovation and entre-preneurship systems that drive Greater China’sascendance in the global high technology

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economy. The program builds on SPRIE’s workduring the past six years on high technologyregions in Silicon Valley, Japan, Korea, Singapore,Taiwan, Mainland China, and India.

Within the GCN framework, SPRIE researchersare currently exploring two fronts: on theinnovation side, they are conducting a study ofthe role of Greater China in the globalizationof R&D. On the entrepreneurship side, theyare investigating high technology leadership ofmajor companies in China.

The globalization of R&D drives the evolutionof high technology industries worldwide. GreaterChina now plays an important role in shapingglobal R&D strategies for companies and uni-versities. Ongoing field research on this topic,including interviews at multinational (MNC) andlocal companies with R&D centers in Hsinchu,Beijing, and Shanghai has raised a variety ofquestions. What are the significant technologyareas of rising local R&D competency? WhatR&D activities are MNCs conducting in China?What are the factors driving further developmentof indigenous R&D? What are the obstacles?How do these trends affect interregional collab-oration/competition among regions in Chinaand between other R&D centers, such as SiliconValley? SPRIE researchers will probe thesequestions in 2005–06.

SPRIE is also considering high technologyleadership in Greater China. From an unprece-dented number of start-ups to billion-dollargiants going global, China’s high technologycompanies urgently need effective leadership.In collaboration with Heidrick & Struggles,a premier worldwide executive search firm,SPRIE will research the following over thecoming year:• How can effective high-tech business leaders

in China be evaluated?• What are the criteria for success?• How does leadership competence compare

among geographical regions?• Who are China’s most successful and effective

high-tech leaders?

• How is the rising generation of leaders being developed? What are the prospects for leaders to take Chinese firms global?Led by SPRIE, the GCN Research Program

is also supported by the Industrial TechnologyResearch Institute (ITRI), Tsinghua University,the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST)in Beijing, the Ministry of Economic Affairs(MOEA) in Taipei, and the ZhongguancunScience Park administration. The GCN AdvisoryBoard includes luminaries from high technologyequipment, hardware, software, and servicesfirms; venture capital, law, and executive searchfirms; and universities and research institutions.

In addition, SPRIE brings together an inter-disciplinary team of distinguished faculty, seniorresearchers, and graduate students from policy,economics, business, law, and technology.During summer 2005, the program welcomedthe first SPRIE Graduate Research Fellows,Ming Gu and Victoria Wu, to conduct fieldresearch in China. In addition, Dr. DouglasFuller and Dr. Iris Quan joined as the inauguralSPRIE Postdoctoral Fellows for 2005–06.

Open Source Software and theChanging Geography of SoftwareValue Capture (new project)

Since 1980, the cost of software has risenfrom 30 percent of the cost of the average infor-mation system to 70 percent, in the context ofa massive increase in demand for IT productsand services. To accommodate this demand, alarge software industry, for both retail andenterprise use, has emerged.

The firms that dominate the software prod-ucts industry—Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, IBMand Siebel—are, with the exception of SAP,U.S.-based. The dominance of U.S. softwareproducers has been attributed not to the skillsof American programmers—these are equallyavailable in many countries, such as India,China and Israel, and usually at lower costs—but instead to their superior understanding ofthe software their clients need, or what iscommonly called “domain knowledge.” This

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helps to explain why, despite their cost advan-tage, developing countries’ software firms over-whelmingly provide services and have largelyfailed to develop a software products industry.Meanwhile, developed country software pro-ducers have opened operations in places likeIndia to access low cost programming skills.

Rafiq Dossani has undertaken a project toexamine the exploding open source software(OSS) movement, which develops and spreadsvia the Internet, globally and free of charge.OSS may globalize and reshape the value-chainof software and business services. Today theregistered OSS community exceeds one milliondevelopers, and about 100,000 OSS projectsare under development.

How might OSS originate in developingcountries that have hitherto lacked the domainskills to originate closed-code product software?Regardless of the software’s origin, OSS enablesdevelopers to incorporate features that developedcountry clients really need; with OSS, domainskills are incorporated without charge into a software product. At a stroke, developingcountry software firms can learn which featuresdeveloped country customers need—they canacquire domain skills—and then apply thoseskills to new software products, both open-and closed-code.

OSS may also change the distribution ofsoftware revenue between products and services.Theoretically, successful OSS will reduce thecost of product development to near zero, andthus remove the advantage that domain knowl-edge adds to a product owner’s pricing power.This could, in turn, shift the balance of costsof software installation toward services. Sincemany services can be provided more cheaply indeveloping countries, the balance of revenuecould move toward those countries. If OSSgains in importance relative to closed-codesoftware, its impact on global distribution ofrevenues could be substantial.

The planned research will explore how OSSwill go global. While believing that OSS will fun-damentally impact the globalization of software

development and services, researchers recognizethe need to understand the possible trajectoriesand causes. In a pilot survey conducted for theproject in November and December 2004, thewidespread variation in views about OSS’ globalimpact was evident. Notably, all the SiliconValley start-ups surveyed were reliant on OSSand would probably not have survived withoutit. In most cases, they reported cost savings ofover 50 percent as a result of using OSS.

Corporate Restructuring andGovernance in China Jean Oi continues to mine extensive open-endedinterviews and an empirical survey of 450 enter-prises in China for data on corporate restruc-turing and governance reform over the lastdecade. “Patterns of Corporate Restructuringin China: Political Constraints on Privatization,”which was published in the China Journal(January 2005), examines the logic of China’scorporate restructuring. In the article, Oi arguesthat there is a political logic that mediates thepattern of corporate restructuring that hasoccurred in China since the 1990s. Even thoughChina’s officials need not worry about beingvoted out of office, they must worry about thepolitical fallout from restructuring. Privatizationcannot be allowed to proceed unless provisionsare made to placate workers who will be affectedby the enterprise restructuring.

The mixing of political and economic agendashas implications for the sequencing of restructur-ing and privatization. It affects not only the speedand the nature of the reforms, but also whichenterprises can be declared bankrupt or sold.Such constraints explain why some forms ofcorporate restructuring are preferred over others,why ailing and already dead firms that havestopped production remain open, and why somefirms for which there are takers have not priva-tized. Political constraints in China have resultedin significant restructuring but relatively littlegenuine privatization. Restructuring and privati-zation are distinct and separate processes thatdo not necessarily lead from one to the other.

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Oi presented a second piece, “CorporateRestructuring and Social Security in State-OwnedEnterprises: Lessons from China,” at a com-parative conference on China and India held inSingapore. This paper examines how Chinesefirms have handled their social security issueswhile they transition from a centrally plannedto a market economy. The paper shows howthe regime has restructured state-owned enter-prises (SOEs) to allow for the creation of somenational champions while it tries to minimizejob loss and worker dislocation. Since the mid-to late-1990s, the Chinese state has been tryingto end its social contract with SOE workers andcreate a new social security system. It has madesome headway in creating a unified welfaresystem that will take the burden of welfare offindividual firms. But that system is still a workin progress. In the meantime, the regime hasastutely tried to limit worker discontent througha carefully controlled process of corporaterestructuring, designed to preserve social as wellas political stability. While economic inefficien-cies remain, some of China’s SOEs have turnedinto internationally competitive firms.

Global KoreaSponsored by the Korea Research Foundationand led by Gi-Wook Shin, this three-year project

focuses on the interplay of global and regionalforces in Korea. Koreans are actively seeking to(re)define their position, not only in relationto global (United States) and regional (China)powers, but also to the northern half of theirnation. This new outlook is closely related to achanging regional and global order. In addition,the rise of China, and South Korea’s discontentwith American unilateralism and its handlingof the North Korean nuclear issue, haveimpelled Koreans to reconsider their place inthe world order.

Principal investigator Shin has produced twopapers from this project, one on “Asianism inKorea’s Politics of Identity,” forthcoming inInter-Asia Cultural Studies, and “Is an AsianIdentity Possible?” that will be published byYonsei University Press as a chapter in a forth-coming book on Asian dynamism.

Information and CommunicationTechnology in Rural IndiaIn a groundbreaking new project, led by RafiqDossani and Henry Rowen, researchers havebeen exploring means by which rural India—where there is less than one telephone onaverage per one hundred inhabitants (comparedwith over twenty in urban areas)—can obtainthe benefits of information and communication

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technologies (ICT). Undertaken jointly with

the Indian Ministry of Communications and

Information Technology, researchers have

studied several private, NGO, and state providers

through site visits. There is substantial demand

for ICT services, primarily for eGovernance

services, such as records (e.g., land records

and birth certificates) and entitlements (e.g.,

health information and social welfare services).

However, existing services focus on email and

Internet-based information and entertainment,

which do not generally promote self-sufficiency.

To accommodate ICT demand at the rural

level in India, researchers have proposed a

network of “kiosks,” or information centers,

linked by wireless to the regional headquarters

(or “block,” in local parlance), and connected

by fiber from the block to the national telecom

grid. The regulatory, ownership, and financing

structure of the network has also been laid

out and presented to the Ministry in a formal

report. Subject to Ministry approval, the next

step will be to create such a network as a pilot

project, in collaboration with companies in

Silicon Valley and India. Shorenstein APARC

researchers will be involved in helping to clarify

the structural issues.

Pathways of Development in Rural China

China’s rural development, from the 1980s tothe present, has taken distinct paths. Jean Oihas co-authored a paper with APARC/TakahashiFellow Kaoru Shimizu that highlights thetremendous variation in the plight of villagesin China. This study moves beyond the twoends of the development spectrum — theindustrialized, rich parts of China characterizedby the rise of township and village enterprises(TVEs) under local state corporatism, and theagricultural, poor parts of China that havebecome synonymous with peasant burdens,rightful resistance, and incidence of protests.Common assumptions are that the path ofdevelopment is linear; that industrializationincreases continuously once the process begins;and that peasants are better off if developmentmoves toward industrialization. While anumber of studies now exist on China’s ruralindustrial “take-off” and the consequences ofnonagricultural development, there remainslittle concrete understanding of how villagesfare after industrialization begins. This paper,which is based on a survey of over one hundred villages that Oi conducted on the initial period of reform (1984–95), attempts tointegrate the different faces of rural China,

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highlight variation in space and over time,

and identify patterns of development and

their consequences.

U.S.-Asia Relations

Mass Media and U.S.-Korea Relations

This project, led by Gi-Wook Shin, analyzes U.S.

and Korean newspaper articles published since

1992. Researchers have coded about 3,000

articles from the three major Korean newspapers

(Chosun, Joongang, and Hangyorye), and about

5,000 articles from three major U.S. news-

papers (New York Times, Washington Post,

and Wall Street Journal). Project researchers

are particularly interested in finding whether

U.S.-Korean relations have been strained, as

many observers and Korean affairs experts have

warned. According to project data, such con-

cerns about the current state of the U.S.-ROK

relations are real and legitimate and thus should

be taken seriously.

Among the preliminary findings from analyses

of the Korean papers are three key points:

1) Politics matter. In the liberal Korean paper

(Hangyorye), the tone of the news on

security-related U.S.-ROK relations has

recently become much more negative. In the conservative paper (Chosun), the tone has changed little.

2) Relations are more strained now than ever before. In comparing U.S.-ROK relations during the two North Korean nuclear crises, project researchers found that that they have been strained only during the current one. This difference may arise from the fact that, in the current nuclear stand-off, the nations cannot agree on a common approach toward the North. This contrasts sharply with the previous crisis, in which the United States and South Korea adopted a common approach to the DPRK.

3) South Korea’s news media are divided on major issues. This polarization has increased over time. American policymakers should heed the increasing power and influence of progressive voices in South Korea—particu-larly given the rise of two consecutive liberal governments—who question the current state of U.S.-ROK relations and guide its future policy.

Data collection for this project took overtwo years, and is now complete. Researchersare analyzing the data from both Korean andAmerican papers, and will be writing up majorfindings, both for journal articles and a book.

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Outsourcing to India: Went for Cost,Stayed for QualityRafiq Dossani and Henry Rowen have beenexamining India’s attractiveness as a destinationfor business services. Funded by the Alfred P.Sloan Foundation, the project has so far exam-ined the outsourcing of software services andback-office processes. To date, findings are thatsoftware services—which originated in the1970s within domestic industry and in the faceof hostile government policy, an adverse macro-economic environment, and small domesticmarkets—developed a limited set of skills thatwere not portable to higher positions on thevalue-chain, such as design and consultingservices and software product development.

The next stage of the project will include anexamination of the outsourcing of research,development, and design services to India. Thewaves of reform since 1991 have opened thedoors to transnational corporations (TNCs)and created both a solid venture capital andtelecommunications infrastructure and a stablemacroeconomic environment. TNCs are nowusing the pools of skilled labor created bydomestic firms to develop software products.This has forced domestic firms to undertakeless skilled work—though with great potentialfor scale—such as back-office and call-center

tasks. Overall, the structure of the industrymay change in terms of ownership types andinnovation, but growth seems assured. Suchoutsourcing obviously has implications forthe U.S. labor force. Accordingly, Dossaniand Rowen are exploring how job content issourced in the United States, China, and India;they have found a rapid convergence of somejob types, though not others. Over the comingyear, they will also consider the theoreticaldrivers of such convergence.

Regional Cooperation

Prospects for Peace in South Asia

South Asia’s rising importance to global trade,the growth of its own markets, its strategiclocation for counterterrorism efforts, and thenuclearization of the region all influencedresearch that Rafiq Dossani and Henry Rowencarried out over the past academic year.

Most notably, in March 2005, Rowen andDossani produced an edited volume, Prospectsfor Peace in South Asia, the inaugural title inShorenstein APARC’s new monograph serieswith Stanford University Press. The bookaddresses Kashmir in the context of domesticpolitics, nationalism, religious forces, and

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nuclearization, and contributors observe thatforces are coming together to improve theprospects for peace. These include: a localgovernment in Kashmir that residents actuallytrust; a civilian-military alliance in Pakistanthat has focused on economic growth; boldpolitical initiatives to restore relations, espe-cially between the two Kashmirs; Pakistaninuclearization; and India’s growing economybased on global trade, which requires a secureneighborhood.

The next stage of this work is a considerationof India’s growing importance to the UnitedStates as a security and economic partner, andPakistan’s efforts to emerge from India’s shadowas a nation capable of supporting its 140-million-strong population. The former is takingshape as a research project on Indian federalismand how local politics shapes foreign policy.What has emerged is that Indian democracy—though it may outwardly resemble otherdemocracies—is based on different components.Indian civil society, for instance, is weakerthan in many developed countries, whereaslocal politics is more important. Hence, anexamination of local politics and its influenceon foreign policy is a useful starting point. ThePakistan project deals with reform in informationtechnology education and energy.

The Korean Experience of HistoricalInjustice and Reconciliation

If the twentieth century is remembered as acentury of war, Asia is central to that story. InNortheast Asia, where issues of historical injus-tice have generated a vicious circle of accusationand defense, overcoming historical animositiesis an important regional issue. In recent decades,Northeast Asia has experienced phenomenaleconomic growth and the spread of democra-tization. Recent indications point to greatereconomic and cultural integration across theregion. Yet wounds from past wrongs committedin times of colonialism, war, and dictatorshipare not fully healed.

In South Korea, the successful democratizationmovement and the growth of civil society haveincreased efforts to unearth and redress crimesof the past. These include, externally, militaryatrocities and abuses committed by Japan; andinternally, Koreans’ exploitation of militarycomfort women, the massacre of civilians bytheir own government before and during theKorean War, and atrocities committed byKorean soldiers during the Vietnam War. Indeed,South Korea presents one of the rare caseswhere both internal and external injustices arebeing addressed.

The 2004 conference “Rethinking HistoricalInjustice in Northeast Asia: The KoreanExperience in Regional Perspective,” hostedby the Korean Studies Program at ShorensteinAPARC and led by Gi-Wook Shin, sought tounderstand issues of historical injustice andreconciliation in Northeast Asia from Koreanperspectives. By linking internal, external, andregional aspects of historical injustice, it aimedto move beyond state-oriented approachesand binary categories such as victim versusaggressor. It also attempted to move to the nextstage: a transnational, cross-cultural processof reconciliation. Among the conference’sdistinctive features was the attention to Koreanexperience in its regional and transnationaldimensions. Conference participants—activistsand scholars from diverse disciplines—providedcomparative and interdisciplinary perspectiveson dealing with past wrongs, struggles forreparations, and the politics of memory inJapan and China.

The papers presented at the conference havebeen edited and revised; they will be publishedas a book in 2006.

Photo: Members of the 2004–05 class of Shorenstein APARC visiting fellows listen to a colleague outline his research project.

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Corporate Affiliates ProgramEstablished in 1982, Shorenstein APARC’sVisiting Fellows Program is a vital and dynamicpart of Center life. The program introducesAsia-based fellows to American life and insti-tutions, including the economy, society, culture,politics, and law. Its 250-plus alumni nowoccupy distinguished positions in the govern-ment and private sectors of Japan, China,Korea, and India.

Visiting fellows audit classes at Stanford,participate in Shorenstein APARC’s varied out-reach and social events, improve their Englishskills, and gain exposure to important Bay Areabusinesses and business people. The relationshipsformed while at Shorenstein APARC developthroughout the year and continue long afterfellows have returned to their home countries.

As part of the 2004–05 curriculum, fellows

visited Oracle, Sun Microsystems, Cisco Systems,Receptor Biologix, and the Rutherford Winery.Site visits included trips to the office of themayor of San Francisco, the Palo Alto PoliceDepartment, and Palo Alto Utilities.

Monthly seminars—on topics ranging fromU.S. patent law to Asian immigration—givefellows a close look at Shorenstein APARC facultyresearch, and that of others working at Stanfordand in the Bay Area. These seminars lay thegroundwork for each visiting fellow’s ownresearch project, the program’s academic corner-stone. Designing and executing an individualproject—which is written and formally presentedto Shorenstein APARC faculty and scholars—allows visiting fellows to use Stanford’s resourcesand their own skills to further their personalinterests, deepen their companies’ knowledgeof target topics, or both.

Programs

“The key is to grasp Asia’s incredible diversity,” noted Pulitzer Prize–winning authorand journalist Stanley Karnow, who received the Center’s inaugural Shorenstein Award.Through its diverse programs—Corporate Affiliates, Korean Studies, Shorenstein Forum,and Southeast Asia Forum—as well as its collaboration with the Stanford Programon International and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE), Shorenstein APARC fosterscommunication about current regional issues to both specialist and general audiences.

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The Korean Studies Program (KSP)The KSP had another exciting, productive year.The program continued its popular Koreanluncheon seminars, hosted several workshopsand a major conference on “UnderstandingNorth Korea,” and organized (together with theShorenstein Forum) a heavily attended publictalk by former Korean president Kim Dae-Jung.In addition, the KSP published the revival issueof the Journal of Korean Studies, hosted thefirst annual summer workshop on Koreanstudies, and welcomed the first Pantech Fellowsin Korean studies. Jasmin Ha also joined theKSP as program coordinator.

The KSP focused on two themes in 2004–05.The first, in conjunction with the ShorensteinForum, was North Korea. Philip Yun, a PantechFellow, organized monthly informal discussionmeetings and brought North Korean expertsto the Center for a special seminar series (seesidebar). Soyoung Kwon, a Shorenstein Fellow,organized a workshop on North Korea in col-laboration with Cornell University. Also incollaboration with John Lewis of CISAC, theKSP hosted a delegation from North Korea todiscuss nuclear and other issues. Finally, theprogram hosted an international conference onNorth Korea; Shorenstein APARC will publishthe conference papers in late 2005.

The second theme is building networksamong the new leaders of the United States andKorea. In particular, the KSP invited many ofnew Korean leaders to Stanford to share theirviews on North Korea and U.S.-ROK relations.The KSP hosted these individuals in a varietyof settings and venues, and will continue thepractice in 2005–06.

The KSP hosted two Pantech Fellows this year,Philip Yun and John Feffer. Both greatly con-tributed to various KSP programs and producedworking papers on Korea. In 2005–06, the KSP

will welcome Daniel Sneider and Scott Snyderas Pantech Fellows. After two years in residence,Hong Kal, one of the program’s postdoctoralresearch fellows, took up her new position as

Visiting Fellows, 2004–05

Tetsufumi AritaAsahi Shimbun, Japan

Sheng-Chung HsiaoMinistry of Foreign Affairs, Taiwan

Jie HuPetroChina Company, Ltd.

Kyoko IiKumamoto Prefectural Government, Japan

Hazumu KakinokiSumitomo Corporation, Japan

Akihisa KamegayaJapan Patent Office

Makoto KatoSumitomo Corporation, Japan

Hiroyuki KobayashiDevelopment Bank of Japan

Teruhisa KuritaMinistry of Finance, Japan

De LiPeople’s Bank of China

Yao LiPeople’s Bank of China

Santhosh MathaiReliance Industries, Ltd., India

Ikuzo MatsushitaShizuoka Prefectural Government, Japan

Kyong-hwan MinHyundai Motor Company, ROK

Takeshi OtaTokyo Electric Power Company

Makoto TakeuchiKansai Electric Power Company, Japan

Naoko TsuchiyaAsahi Shimbun, Japan

Pingshen WangMinistry of Foreign Affairs, Taiwan

Ronghua XiePetroChina Company, Ltd.

Fengyin XuPetroChina Company, Ltd.

Takanobu YasunagaMinistry of Economy, Trade, and Industry(METI), Japan

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assistant professor at York University, Canada.Replacing Hong is Kyu Sup Hahn, of Stanford,who will work with the KSP director on a num-ber of projects related to communications andpolitics. Chiho Sawada, another postdoctoralresearch fellow, will stay another year. The KSP

also welcomes Mi-Kyung Kang as Stanford’sfirst Korean librarian. She brings her rich expe-riences of building a Korean collection at theUniversity of California, Los Angeles.

The KSP has several new research publicationsto report. Gi-Wook Shin’s new book on ethnicnationalism is forthcoming from StanfordUniversity Press; he also collaborated on twoedited volumes, on historical injustice and recon-ciliation in Northeast Asia and North Korea,respectively. Both will be published in the com-ing year. The Pantech Fellows likewise publishedworking papers, and the postdoctoral researchfellows contributed chapters to the reconciliationvolume. Further, the KSP is editorial home tothe Journal of Korean Studies. The revivalissue came out in fall 2004; the second issue isforthcoming in December 2005.

In collaboration with Stanford’s Center forEast Asian Studies, the KSP is working to expandthe Korean studies curriculum. The KPS wasfortunate to have Mr. Won Soon Park, a

Selected KSP Events, 2004–05

Reflections on the Meaning of CulturalGlobalizationChai-sik Chung, Professor of Social Ethics,Boston University School of Theology

North Korea: Thinking about CoerciveDiplomacy, Regime Change, and Red LinesPhilip Yun, 2004–05 Pantech Fellow

Conference: North Korea: 2005 and BeyondFeatured speakers: • Congressman Curt Weldon (R-PA)• General Young Koo Cha, ROK Army

Globalization At Work? Realigning theEconomic Bureaucracy and the Korean Statein TransitionJoo-Youn Jung, Stanford University

Inter-Korean Relations and the Future of theKorean PeninsulaHis Excellency Kim Dae-Jung, formerPresident, Republic of Korea; 2000 NobelPeace Prize Laureate (organized with the Shorenstein Forum)

Panel: U.S. Policy toward the KoreanPeninsula• Coit D. Blacker, FSI Director• William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of

Defense; Co-director, Preventive Defense Project, CISAC

• Daniel I. Okimoto, Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC

(held in Seoul, in collaboration with theInstitute of Foreign Affairs and NationalSecurity)

An Old Crew on a Sinking Ship: The NorthKorean Political Elite, 1980–2004Soyoung Kwon, 2004–05 Shorenstein Fellow

Change in the Social Movements inDemocratizationHee-Yeon Cho, Professor of Sociology,Sungkonghoe University, Seoul

Korean Food, Korean Identity: The Impactof Globalization on Korean AgricultureJohn Feffer, 2004–05 Pantech Fellow

Results of a Recent Study of South KoreanAttitudes toward the United StatesEric Larson, Senior Policy Analyst, RANDCorporation

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leading figure in Korean NGOs, teach on Koreancivic activism. In fall 2005, Dr. Young KwanYoon, the former minister of foreign affairsand professor of international studies at SeoulNational University, will teach on U.S.-ROK

relations. Professor David Kang of Dartmouthwill also spend 2005–06 at the KSP, teachingtwo courses on Korea.

Finally, the Korea Foundation has pledged$2 million to Stanford University’s School ofHumanities and Sciences to endow a professor-ship in Korean Studies. The gift will be matchedwith $2 million from the William and FloraHewlett Foundation. This is the second pro-fessorship the Korea Foundation has awardedto Stanford University. In 1996, joined bythe Tong Yang Group and the Korea StanfordAlumni Association the Korea Foundation madea gift to establish the first endowed chair atStanford in Korean Studies.

The Walter H. Shorenstein Forum for Asia-Pacific Studies To address the serious nuclear problem on theKorean peninsula, the Shorenstein Forum organ-ized and hosted a series of seminars and a majorconference on North Korea in 2004–05. NorthKorea is tightly controlled, yet the extraordi-nary speakers who participated in this ground-

The Shorenstein Seminar Series onNorth Korea, 2004–05

In 2004–05, the Shorenstein Forum organizeda series of seminars on North Korea to help theStanford community understand that country’scomplex state of affairs and looming nuclearproblem.

Since 2002, the danger to U.S. nationalsecurity interests due to events on the KoreanPeninsula has markedly increased. North Korea’sweaponizable nuclear stockpile—at one timeestimated to be one, possibly two, bombs’worth of material—is now at a probable sixto eight and growing. Its Yongbyon 5 MW(e)nuclear facility is again operational, capableof producing enough fissile material for oneweapon per year. International inspectorsplaced on the ground in 1994 to monitornuclear-related material are no longer incountry, and despite the diplomatic niceties,China and South Korea have been uneasy withthe U.S. approach. Earlier this year, Pyongyangdeclared that it had manufactured a nuclearbomb, and there were reports in Washingtonthat North Korea might soon test a device.

Giving an insider’s view of high-level deci-sion-making in the Clinton and George W.Bush administrations, Ambassador CharlesKartman, the chief U.S. negotiator for peace

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breaking series (see sidebar), shed light on thispoorly understood country, and the motives ofits current regime.

As the culminating event of the academicyear, aimed at integrating the insights pre-sented at the North Korean seminar series, theShorenstein Forum and the KSP at Stanfordconvened a timely, lively conference on “NorthKorea: 2005 and Beyond.” Many of the seminarspeakers participated, along with prominentcolleagues from South Korea and the UnitedStates, such as Congressman Curt Weldon,General Young Koo Cha, Dr. Young-Kwan Yoon,Won Soon Park, and Philip Yun, the 2004–05Pantech Fellow in Korean Studies. Conferencespeakers submitted working papers, focusing onthe interrelated nature of politics, economics,security, and human rights in North Korea, andanalyzing, from a policy perspective, whatconcrete measures—such as facilitating certainareas of economic reform—might induce con-structive change. Shorenstein APARC willpublish the resulting book in late 2005.

In addition to a steady influx of distinguishedscholars, policymakers, and political leadersfrom Asia, the Shorenstein Forum sponsoredtwo postdoctoral fellows, Jennifer Amyx, assis-tant professor at the University of Pennsylvania,and Dr. Soyoung Kwon, formerly at CambridgeUniversity. Dr. Amyx’s research focused on theregulation and reform of government-backedfinancial institutions in Japan, such as postalsavings and the insurance system. Dr. Kwon’swork examined North Korea’s political leader-ship and policy orientation. During their stay,the two fellows produced, respectively, severalarticles and book-length manuscripts. Thelatter are being considered for inclusion in theShorenstein APARC’s joint monograph serieswith Stanford University Press.

Shorenstein APARC will welcome two newShorenstein Fellows in the 2005–06 academicyear. Michelle Fei-yu Hsieh, of McGill University,will research the topic “Making Sense of Korea’s

The Shorenstein Seminar Series onNorth Korea, 2004–05 (continued)

talks with North Korea from 1997 to 2001,and Ambassador Charles L. Pritchard, the U.S.special envoy for negotiations with NorthKorea from 2001 to 2003, candidly assessedthe successes and failures of U.S. policy overthe past ten years.

To complement this Washington policy per-spective, Shorenstein APARC sought “on-the-ground” specialist analyses. Robert Carlin andC. Kenneth Quinones, both longtime NorthKorea watchers who have visited the North,furnished badly needed background on thepressures and circumstances faced by NorthKorea’s people and current regime. Carlin isa leading authority on Pyongyang leadershipissues, serving an advisor to a number of U.S.negotiators. Quinones, also a former U.S. gov-ernment official, has written and lecturedextensively on North Korea. William Brown,formerly a Deputy National Intelligence Officerfor Economics in the U.S. National IntelligenceCouncil, and Randall Ireson, coordinator forthe American Friends Service Committee’sNorth Korea agriculture assistance program,gave groundbreaking presentations—Brownon the country’s 2002 economic reforms, andIreson on North Korean food self-sufficiency,something that many believe to be impossible.

The series ended with a lecture by the formerPresident of the Republic of Korea and the 2000Nobel Peace Prize Laureate, Kim Dae-Jung.Introduced by former U.S. Secretary of DefenseWilliam Perry, President Kim outlined signifi-cant changes occurring between North andSouth Korea and offered his policy prescrip-tion to resolve the nuclear weapons crisis.Concluding his remarks, the President declaredthat the “future of inter-Korean relationsdepends on peace. Peaceful coexistence, peace-ful exchange, and peaceful reunification is theonly path we should follow.”

—Philip W. Yun, Pantech Fellow, 2004–05

The February 3, 2003, cover story of Business Week posed the stark question for U.S. white-collar workers:“Is Your Job Next?” Motivating this alarming headline was the larger and more profound question of whetherthe next great wave of globalization will come in services. Not surprisingly, the offshoring of services hasgenerated much emotional debate. The general wisdom in developed nations has been that while manu-facturing might relocate to the developing world, it would be replaced by service activities, either whatRobert Reich has termed “in-person” services or symbolic analysis.

Today, employment in advanced developed nations is increasingly concentrated in the transformationof digitized representations and not in the manufacture of physical objects. Put differently, an increasingpercentage of the working population sits at computer screens or telephones. Even work in “manufacturing” firmsincreasingly occurs not on the factory floor, but in design, marketing, after-sales service, and monitoring. If man-ufacturing employment further erodes, it will not affect the U.S. political economy as dramatically as willthe offshoring of services.

Given the growth of services in developed nations and their limited offshoring to date, the scope fortransferring services offshore was unexpected even a few years ago. Of course, there have been sectoralprecedents. In the early 1970s, software programming moved to India, along with other destinations. Softwareproduction was easily shifted because it could be directly done on a computer, and did not, at that time,demand sophisticated communications capability. Though offshore software production will continue toexpand, the disposition of a larger and more diverse category of activities is more interesting. The potentialdimensions of this relocation of employment are well captured by one executive at an Indian offshoringfacility: “If you do not need to physically see the person doing the work, then it can be moved.”

How significant service offshoring will be for developed country employment patterns is difficult tocalculate. Estimates of the number of service jobs that could be offshored vary dramatically. The currentwisdom is that routinized, low-value-added jobs such as call center, medical transcription, claims processing,and data entry types of activities are most at risk. But that view needs to change: radiology diagnosis, actuarialwork, and patent preparation for submission to the U.S. Patent Office have also been offshored to India.The types of work that can be discharged offshore are not limited to low-wage semi-skilled activities andsoftware coding; employment and wages in highly skilled occupations will also be affected.

Researchers at Shorenstein APARC are studying these trends, seeking to show how certain factors cancome together to create an enabling environment. Many such factors are available to any country with thenecessary technical skills and an enabling policy environment for business to flourish. But many are path-dependent, which means that individual countries’ experiences might be difficult to replicate. Institutionaldevelopment may also be a requirement, as will action at the level of the firm. Had American Express notexperimented with offering data processing services to its parent from Mumbai in 1993, and shown that itwas possible, the offshoring business might not have been sparked. At the very least, it helps to explain whythe business began in India rather than China. A multinational with service operations in both countrieshad only to see an opportunity for cost arbitrage, and to seize it.

“If you do not need to physically see the person doing the work, then it can be moved.”

hot topic Offshoring

Rafiq DossaniSenior Research Scholar and Director of the South Asia Initiative at Shorenstein APARC

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Boom and Bust: State, Firms, and IndustrialUpgrade;” and Vinayak Chaturvedi, assistantprofessor of history at the University ofCalifornia, Irvine, will pursue work related tonationalist discourse in India, V.D. Savarkar,and the ideology of Hindutva.

Thanks to Walter H. Shorenstein’s recentgenerous gift, and APARC’s renaming, theactivities of the Walter H. Shorenstein Forumwill henceforth be carried out as part of theCenter’s overall outreach program.

The Southeast Asia Forum (SEAF)Singapore loomed large in SEAF’s activities in2004–05. More students come from Singaporeto Stanford than from any other Southeast Asiancountry. Singapore is focally located at the footof the Malacca Strait, where the continental andmaritime parts of Southeast Asia meet. No cityin Southeast Asia is better equipped with humanand physical resources for studying the region.Conversely, as a west coast university, Stanfordis well situated to help Southeast Asian, includingthose from Singapore, scholars interact withNorth American colleagues.

With these advantages in mind, SEAF directorDonald Emmerson made two trips to Singaporeto discuss possible cooperation with counter-parts at the National University of Singapore

Selected Shorenstein Forum Events,2004–05

Food Security in North Korea: DesigningRealistic PossibilitiesRandall Ireson, American Friends ServiceCommittee

The Oksenberg Lecture: America and theNew AsiaThe Honorable Zbigniew Brzezinski, formerNational Security Adviser

Inter-Korean Relations and the Future of theKorean PeninsulaHis Excellency Kim Dae-Jung, formerPresident, Republic of Korea; 2000 NobelPeace Prize Laureate(organized with the KSP)

Grappling with North Korea and Its NuclearDiplomacyCharles Kartman, Executive Director, KoreanPeninsula Energy Development Organization(KEDO)

Pressing Economic Reform in North KoreaWilliam Brown, Senior Research Analyst,CENTRA Technology, Inc.

Opportunities and Challenges for Solving theNorth Korean Nuclear CrisisAmbassador Charles L. Pritchard, VisitingFellow, Brookings Institution

North Korea a Decade after Kim Il-Sung:Change or Continuity?C. Kenneth Quinones, Director, KoreanPeninsula Programs, International Action

Thirty Years of North Korea Analysis: WhatHave You Done for Me Lately?Robert Carlin, Senior Policy Advisor, KEDO

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(NUS) and other local centers of research.These conversations are expected to continue in2005–06. Plans have already been laid for twoNUS professors to spend sabbatical leave atStanford in the winter and spring quarters of2006. One will study corruption in East Asiawhile the other works on regional health issues.

Also promising in this context is the SoutheastAsian Leadership Network, an organizationstarted by Southeast Asian students at Stanford,including several from Singapore. As the group’sfaculty adviser, Emmerson helped them initiate“Project Vietnam”—a plan to bring computersand software to Vietnam for use by Vietnamesein overcoming their domestic digital divide. InJune 2005, the students carried more than adozen computers to Vietnam and worked witha local youth organization to establish the first-ever computer-based, English-language-learninglab in Ho Chi Minh City. The lab now offersinstruction to young people and working adultswho cannot afford private English lessons. Theproject was widely and positively covered in thepress and on television. Prime Minister PhanVan Khai—on the first visit to the United Statesby a Vietnamese head of government since theVietnam War—cited the students’ initiative asan example of how the two countries couldcooperate. The Office of the President at Stanford,the Singapore International Foundation, andthe Boston Consulting Group joined SEAF inhelping to finance the project.

In 2003, inspired by SEAF, a group of non-partisan but socially conscious Malaysianstudents at Stanford and professionals residentin the area established a Malaysia Forum (MF).Notable among its activities in 2004–05 was aninternational conference at Stanford on “Citizensas Agents of Change” featuring a panel ofpractitioners and scholars on that topic withSEAF’s director as discussant.

At Stanford in 2004–05 SEAF hosted a fullroster of seminars by American, Australian,Indonesian, and Thai speakers, in political

Selected SEAF Events, 2004–05

Inside ASEAN: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar,Vietnam, and the Non-InterferenceControversyCarlyle A. Thayer, Professor of Politics,Australian Defence Force Academy

Dangling by a Thread: Southeast Asia sincethe End of Apparel Export Quotas Geoffrey Stafford, Political scientist andglobal procurement strategist in the apparelindustry

Thaksin on Top: Interpreting Thai PoliticsKavi Chongkittavorn, Senior journalist andcolumnist at The Nation, Bangkok

Will the Real ASEAN Please Stand Up? Donald Emmerson, Director, SEAF

Picking Fights: Interpreting State Repressionin Southeast Asia and Beyond Vince Boudreau, Associate Professor ofPolitical Science, City College of New York

What Motivates Regional FinancialCooperation in East Asia Today? Jennifer Amyx, Shorenstein Fellow, 2004–05

Goodbye, Flying Geese: Asian RegionalismToday and TomorrowPeter J. Katzenstein, Professor of InternationalStudies, Cornell University

Asian Melodrama: Does China’sDevelopment Threaten Southeast Asia’s?Ian Coxhead, Professor of Agricultural andApplied Economics, University of Wisconsin,Madison

Indonesian President Yudhoyono’s FirstThirty Days: An Evaluation + Prospects forthe Future • R. William Liddle, Professor of Political

Science, Ohio State University • Bahtiar Effendy, Lecturer, University

of Indonesia and Islamic State University, Jakarta

Rhetoric and Realism in Foreign Policy:Australia between Southeast Asia and the U.S.David Engel, Political counselor, Embassy ofAustralia, Washington, DC

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science, economics, journalism, and business,on a variety of domestic and foreign-policytopics related to Southeast Asia. SEAF’s directorspoke and traveled widely, including talks inCalifornia, North Carolina, Lebanon, andThailand. In addition to teaching and advisingstudents on Southeast Asian subjects, he wroteessays and op-eds, and was quoted by, amongothers, the Associated Press, the BBC, BostonGlobe, Jane’s Intelligence Review (Hong Kong),KPIX-TV, National Public Radio, and StraitsTimes (Singapore).

Emmerson also served on two study groupson U.S. foreign-policy options toward South-east Asia. On “America’s Role in Asia” and“Southeast Asia in the 21st Century—Issuesand Options for the U.S.,” they were organ-ized, respectively, by the Asia and StanleyFoundations. Written results of these groups’meetings are available in America’s Role inAsia: American Views (San Francisco: The AsiaFoundation, 2004).

Bringing Shorenstein APARC Researchto the High School Classroom

In fall 2005, the Stanford Program onInternational and Cross-Cultural Education(SPICE) will publish a curriculum on the ChineseCultural Revolution for use in secondary schoolclassrooms. Shorenstein APARC director AndrewWalder, an expert on this period of Chinesehistory, generously served as an advisor toGregory Francis and Stefanie Lamb, the curricu-lum’s authors. The curriculum features fivelessons in which students explore facets of theCultural Revolution through an examinationof myriad primary source materials.

The unit begins with an overview of twentieth-century China preceding the Cultural Revolution,providing students with the necessary back-ground information to meaningfully engagewith the material. In this section, students learnof the half-century of near-constant instabilitythat China experienced before the Communistvictory, a period that contributed to the excesses

“This project has changed the lives of the teachers and students that have come to use thesoftware to learn English, as well as the many high school students who have been inspiredto start their own projects to address social changes within their own community.”Stanford student Kevin Siew, on the SEAF-supported “Project Vietnam”

The unit also incorporates literature as a teach-ing tool. Students read Red Scarf Girl by Ji-liJiang, a memoir of a girl who was 12–14 yearsold during the first three tumultuous years ofthe Cultural Revolution. The book provides vividinsight into how the policies of the CulturalRevolution affected the educational system andeveryday lives of Chinese people.

Despite China’s self-imposed isolation duringthe Cultural Revolution, the rest of the worldreceived scattered reports about the events ofthe period. The ideas that emerged from Chinaduring the Cultural Revolution influencedradical movements from Cambodia to the UnitedStates. Students explore this influence by studyingthe Cultural Revolution’s impact on Communistmovements in Asia and groups in Europe andthe United States.

Finally, students reflect on how their viewsof the Cultural Revolution have changedthroughout the curriculum and discuss themost important lessons of this extraordinaryhistorical period.

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“We should not blindly trust our leaders…. It is our responsibility to question ourleaders and make sure they don’t abuse their power. That’s the most important lessonwe have to learn, because this kind of tragedy could happen in any country, even inour own country, if people allow their leaders to abuse power.”Ji-li Jiang, author of Red Scarf Girl, in a letter to students included in theSPICE Cultural Revolution curriculum

of the Cultural Revolution. The curriculumthen provides students with an introduction tothe events of the Cultural Revolution.

Primary sources serve as the means to teachstudents why the Cultural Revolution occurred,how citizens and the government responded toit, how it affected people’s lives on various levels,and the overall effect it had on the countryand the world. An analysis of quotations byMao Zedong and Confucius demonstrates therevolutionary nature of Mao’s ideas whenviewed against traditional Chinese thought andpractice. Students then become familiar withthe significance and common themes of revolu-tionary songs and other performance artduring the Cultural Revolution. In groups stu-dents analyze and discuss official governmentdocuments, newspaper and journal articles,eyewitness accounts, letters, and personalmemoirs. They also learn about the influenceof propaganda art and examine a variety ofposters and other visual media. To learn howthe Cultural Revolution has been historicized,students evaluate the treatment of the CulturalRevolution in three textbook passages: one fromTaiwan, one from the United States, and onefrom China. They then draw upon these per-spectives to create their own textbook entry onthe Cultural Revolution.

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Next Generation Leaders in the SemiconductorIndustry? Chinese Professionals and TheirLocation Decisions• Hsing-Hsiung Chen, SPRIE Visiting

Scholar; Director of Integrated Research Division, ITRI

• Jian-hung Chen, SPRIE Visiting Scholar; Researcher, ITRI

• David Wang, Vice President, Fibra Inc.; President, CASPA, 2003–04

The Globalization of R&D• Per-Kristian (Kris) Halvorsen,

Vice President and Director, Solutions Services, Hewlett-Packard

• Yoshio Nishi, Professor of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University

• John Seely Brown, Visiting Scholar, Annenberg Center, University of Southern California

Semiconductor Industry Outlook: ChangingPatterns in Silicon Valley, Taiwan, and China• Joseph Y. Liu, President, CEO,

and Member, Board of Directors, Oplink Communications, Inc.

• Sam T. Wang, President of U.S. Operations, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation

• Tien Wu, President, ASE Americas, Europe, and Japan; Corporate Vice President, Worldwide Marketing and Strategy, ASE Inc.; CEO, ISE Labs Inc. (an ASE Test Company)

• William F. Miller, SPRIE

Symposium: University, Research Institute, andIndustry Relations in the U.S., Taiwan, andMainland ChinaThis two-day research workshop broughttogether experts to explore connectionsbetween universities/research institutes andindustry in the United States, Taiwan, andMainland China.

Featured SPRIE Events, 2004–05

The Stanford Project on Regions of Innovationand Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) at ShorensteinAPARC is dedicated to the understanding ofinnovation and entrepreneurship in leadingregions around the world. Current researchfocuses on Silicon Valley and high technologyregions in the PRC, Taiwan, Japan, Korea,Singapore, and India. SPRIE fulfils its missionthrough interdisciplinary and international col-laborative research, seminars and conferences,publications, and briefings for industry andgovernment leaders. More information aboutSPRIE’s current work appears in the Researchsection of this overview. A selected listing ofSPRIE events in 2004–05 follows below.

Conference: The Greater China Capital Marketfor Innovation and EntrepreneurshipThis conference addressed the influence of thesystem of capital on regional innovation andentrepreneurship in the United States, Taiwan,and Mainland China, with emphasis on theventure capital industry, corporate venturing, andother institutions of capital related to regionalindustrial development. Co-sponsored with theIndustrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI).

China’s Venture Capital System andInvestment Decision-makingWei Zhang, Assistant Professor of Economicsand Management, Tsinghua University

Photo: The Honorable Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor and now professor of American Foreign Policy atJohns Hopkins University, delivers the annual Oksenberg Lecture on the subject of “America and the New Asia.”

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Shorenstein APARC’s outreach efforts aregrounded in the Center’s ongoing research. TheCenter organizes seminar series, conferences,and workshops to foster discussion of regionalchallenges. Center faculty and researchers teachboth undergraduate and graduate students,publish extensively in academic journals, andthrough scholarly and trade presses, and arefrequently asked to comment in the media onevents and issues affecting the region. Collectively,these activities ensure that the Center’s uniqueinterdisciplinary work reaches the widest pos-sible audience.

Featured Event

Zbigniew Brzezinski Discusses “Americaand the New Asia”

The Oksenberg Lecture, given in March 2005by Zbigniew Brzezinski, honors the legacy ofProfessor Michel Oksenberg (1938–2001) long-time member of Shorenstein APARC, senior

fellow at FSI, and an authority on China. TheOksenberg Lecture recognizes distinguishedindividuals who have helped to advance under-standing between the United States and thenations of the Asia-Pacific.

Dr. Brzezinski, who served as national securityadviser to President Jimmy Carter and was aclose colleague of Michel Oksenberg, assertedthat by the year 2020, the world’s five mostimportant countries will likely be the UnitedStates, the European Union, China, Japan,and India, in that order. He further noted that“If, in that context, the United States and theEuropean Union do not work very closelytogether, we will be witnesses to a fundamentalshift in the world’s center of geopolitical gravityto Asia.” Brzezinski spoke of China’s risingimportance on the world stage, and the rolethat the United States should play in engagingwith it. “There is still some inclination,” heobserved, “to revive the China threat as a fash-ionable focus of anxiety. We have to recognizethat we have a complex role to play in a complex

Outreach

“I walk out of her office feeling as if I could take on the world.”Former graduate student, nominating Shorenstein APARC faculty member Jean Oifor a Distinguished Teaching Award

46 outreach

and changing setting. Strategic prudence anddiplomatic skill will be the best way to use ourpreponderant power in a constructive fashion,so that the American-Chinese relationship, andAsia more generally, can be assimilated into amore stable international system.”

Featured Publications

New Monograph Series with StanfordUniversity PressShorenstein APARC and Stanford UniversityPress have joined forces to produce a new seriesof “Studies of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.” Designed to spotlightShorenstein APARC’s cutting-edge research, theseries features the varied work of the Center’sfaculty, researchers, and fellows, and the uniqueinterdisciplinary perspective that informs it.Shorenstein APARC director Andrew Waldernoted that “We are delighted to begin this serieswith Stanford University Press, which has alarge and distinguished list of books on modernEast Asia. It is a perfect way to showcase thebest of the scholarly work to come out ofShorenstein APARC.” The inaugural book inthe series, Prospects for Peace in South Asia,edited by Rafiq Dossani and Henry S. Rowen,was published in March 2005.

Four more books are currently in the pipeline;their variety indicates the breadth of topicsthat the series will embrace. First, HarukataTakenaka, a former Shorenstein APARC Fellow,considers how and why a semi-democraticregime collapses without experiencing furtherdemocratization. Takenaka’s book (much ofwhich was written at the Center) answers thesequestions using a case study on regime changein prewar Japan. Second is Gi-Wook Shin’simportant new book on the genealogy, politics,and legacy of ethnic nationalism in Korea,which focuses on the historical roots and con-temporary relevance of identity politics. Third,Andrew Walder, and his co-editors JosephEsherick and Paul Pickowicz, have completed avolume on China’s Cultural Revolution. Dueout in spring 2006, the book is entitled TheChinese Cultural Revolution as History. Fourthand also due in spring 2006, co-editors HenryS. Rowen, Marguerite Gong Hancock, andWilliam F. Miller will follow up their firstStanford University Press volume, The SiliconValley Edge (2000), with Making IT: The Riseof Asia in High Tech, described on page 48.

outreach 47

Jean Oi honored with Dean’s Award in Distinguished TeachingIn June 2005, after more than twenty of her current and former graduate studentscontributed glowing letters of nomination, Jean Oi received the Dean’s Award inDistinguished Teaching for Excellence in Graduate Education.

As excerpts from their letters (two of which are quoted above and below) attest, thestudents enjoyed trememdous support from Professor Oi, both during their graduatestudies and in their subsequent professional lives. All study China in some capacity, butcollectively they represent a diverse group from several departments, including politicalscience, economics, sociology, East Asian studies, and environmental engineering. Recentgraduates who have worked with Professor Oi have gone on to many professions,including positions at Academica Sinica, Dartmouth, MIT, the University of Pennsylvania,and Harvard’s Weatherhead Center.

The students praised Professor Oi for enriching their graduate education throughdissertation and fieldwork advising, mentoring, and unparalleled assistance during thejob search process. Many credit their success to her caring, enthusiastic guidance.

Shorenstein APARC congratulates Jean on this well deserved recognition of herexceptional teaching abilities.

“Jean ensures that our graduate education does not merely end in a degree, butrather that it becomes a true starting point for a professional career in academia.”

“As I develop my own ‘style’ as a teacher, I repeatedly find myself reflecting onJean’s mentoring and how she nurtured me throughout my graduate career.Her model is one that I hope to emulate—and one that is needed much moregenerally during the graduate experience.”

48 outreach

Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech

This book, edited by Henry S. Rowen, MargueriteGong Hancock, and William F. Miller, is theproduct of an intensive international collab-oration among experts from seven parts ofAsia with the Stanford Program on Regionsof Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE).The book’s contributors address Fukuoka(Japan), Teheran and Taedok Valleys (Korea),Zhongguancun Science Park (Beijing), HsinchuScience Park (Taiwan), Singapore, and Bangalore.

The book focuses on the information tech-nology (IT) industry. In 2003, the value offinal consumption of IT goods worldwide—encompassing computers, telecommunications,and components—was about $1.5 billion, withAsia comprising about 20 percent of this total.However, Asia produced about 40 percent ofthese goods, exporting the difference largely tothe United States and Europe. Making IT consid-ers the causes and consequences of this rise.

By the 1990s, all six countries/regions hadadopted a range of similar, as well as markedlydifferent, strategies:• Growth-positive development policies• Investment in educating scientists and

engineers

• Acquisition of technologies from abroad • Governmental promotion of IT industries• Development of technology and management

skills • Linkages with the United States.

There were also notable differences amongthese regions. • Legal rules. Except in Mainland China, these

were reasonably effective.• Entrepreneurship. Some regions actively

formed firms; others did not. • Innovation. Only Japan displayed consistent

technical innovation. Taiwan, Korea, and Singapore made great progress during the 1990s.

• Regional clusters. Mostly government-created, these became prominent in all countries except Japan.

• Mobility of labor. All except Japan and Korea had mobile labor markets.

• IT research institutes. These became ubiquitous but their significance varied. They were signif-icant sources of new companies in Taiwan and Mainland China, but not elsewhere. There is a growing belief in global scientific

and technical circles that Asia will soon becomea creator of technology. Japan has alreadyachieved this goal, and the other countriesanalyzed in Making IT are making rapid

outreach 49

progress. They have able, well-trained people,have or are developing needed institutions, andare connected to the world of ideas.

Shorenstein APARC research produces occasionalworking papers and policy briefs, an annualpeer-reviewed journal on Korean Studies, andbooks. Center books are distributed through anagreement with the Brookings Institution Press.

Shorenstein APARC scholars also publishextensively in academic journals and throughtrade and scholarly presses. The publicationsfeatured below showcase the broad scope ofShorenstein APARC’s research and outreachactivities.

The Journal of Korean Studies

APARC’s Korean Studies Program, in collabo-ration with Rowman & Littlefield, publishedthe revival issue, after more than ten years’hiatus, of the Journal of Korean Studies (vol. 9)in January 2005. The Journal is dedicated toquality articles, in all disciplines, on a broadrange of topics concerning Korea, both historicaland contemporary. The editorial office ishoused within the Korean Studies Program atShorenstein APARC, and its editorial boardincludes eminent academics in the United States,Korea, and France. The second issue of theJournal of Korean Studies (vol. 10) is forth-coming in December 2005.

Selected Books and Reports

Rafiq Dossani and Henry S. Rowen, eds. Prospectsfor Peace in South Asia (Studies of the Walter H.Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center). Stanford:Stanford University Press, 2005.

Henry S. Rowen, Marguerite Gong Hancock, andWilliam F. Miller, eds. Making IT: The Rise of Asiain High Tech (Studies of the Walter H. ShorensteinAsia-Pacific Research Center). Stanford: StanfordUniversity Press, forthcoming.

Gi-Wook Shin. Ethnic Nationalism in Korea:Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy (Studies of the

Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center).Stanford: Stanford University Press, forthcoming.

Andrew Walder, Joseph Esherick, and Paul Pickowicz,eds. The Chinese Cultural Revolution as History(Studies of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-PacificResearch Center). Stanford: Stanford UniversityPress, forthcoming.

Selected Articles and Book Chapters

Michael H. Armacost and J. Stapleton Roy. “America’sRole in Asia in 2004: An Overview,” in America’sRole in Asia: American Views. San Francisco: TheAsia Foundation, 2004.

Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney. “Offshoring andthe Future of U.S. Engineering,” The Bridge, publishedby the National Association of Engineers, forthcoming.

Rafiq Dossani. “Globalization and the Outsourcingof Services: The Impact of Indian Offshoring.”Brookings Trade Forum on Offshoring, forthcoming.

Rafiq Dossani. “Fixing Tariffs, Finance, andCompetition for the Power Sector in India,” in JoelRuet, ed., Against the Current (vol. 2). New Delhi:Manohar-CSH, 2005.

Donald K. Emmerson. “Shocks of Recognition: Leifer,Realism, and Regionalism in Southeast Asia,” inJoseph Chinyong Liow and Ralf Emmers, eds., Orderand Security in Southeast Asia: Essays in Memory ofMichael Leifer. London: Routledge-Curzon, 2005.

Donald K. Emmerson. “One Nation under God?History, Faith, and Identity in Indonesia,” inTheodore Friend, ed., Religiosity in the Philippinesand Indonesia: Essays on State, Society, and PublicCreeds. Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins UniversitySchool of Advanced International Studies, 2005.

Donald K. Emmerson. “What Is Indonesia?” in JohnBresnan, ed., Indonesia: The Great Transition. Lanham,MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2005.

Donald K. Emmerson. “Security, Community, andDemocracy in Southeast Asia: Analyzing ASEAN.”Japanese Journal of Political Science, 6: 2 (August2005).

Donald K. Emmerson. “What Do the Blind-sided See?Reapproaching Regionalism in Southeast Asia.” ThePacific Review, 18: 1 (March 2005).

Jean C. Oi. “Patterns of Corporate Restructuring inChina: Political Constraints on Privatization.” ChinaJournal, January 2005.

Michael H. Armacost. “The International Contextfor U.S.-Chinese Regional Cooperation.” Stanford/Harvard Cooperative Defense Conference in Shanghai,China, January 2005.

Michael H. Armacost. “The U.S. Role in Asia.” TheAsia Foundation Conference, Washington, DC,November 2004.

Donald K. Emmerson. “Community, Identity, andDemocracy: Lessons from Southeast Asia.” Centerfor Arab and Middle Eastern Studies, AmericanUniversity of Beirut, Lebanon, June 2005.

Donald K. Emmerson. “Political Transitions andU.S.-Southeast Asian Relations: How Much WillLeadership Matter?” Conference on “Southeast Asiain the Twenty-first Century: Issues and Options forU.S. Policy,” Stanley and Asia Foundations, Bangkok,Thailand, March 2005.

Donald K. Emmerson. “Islam, Muslims, and Violence:The Useful Diversity of ‘Islamism.’” Special sessionon “Islam and Political Violence: The ‘Ismhouse’ ofLanguage,” annual convention, Middle East StudiesAssociation Annual Convention, San Francisco, CA,November 2004.

Jean C. Oi. “Costs and Benefits of Rural Industrial-ization: A Reassessment.” International conferenceon “Grassroots Democracy and Local Governance inChina during the Reform Era,” National Chengchi Uni-versity, Chinese Association of Political Science, Centerfor China Studies, Taipei, Taiwan, November 2004.

50 outreach

Gi-Wook Shin. “Asianism and Korea’s Politics of

Identity.” Inter-Asia Cultural Studies, forthcoming

September 2005.

Gi-Wook Shin. “The Agrarian Roots of Korean

Capitalism,” in Yunshik Chang and Steven Lee,

eds., Korea: Toward an Industrial Society. London:

Routledge-Curzon, 2005.

Gi-Wook Shin and Paul Chang. “The Politics of

Nationalism in U.S.-Korean Relations.” Asian

Perspectives, 28: 4 (2004).

Andrew G. Walder (with Litao Zhao). “Political

Office and Household Wealth: Rural China in the

Deng Era.” China Quarterly, forthcoming.

Andrew G. Walder. “China’s Private Sector: A Global

Perspective,” in Yanjie Bian, Leonard Cheng, and

Anne Tsui, eds., The Management and Performance

of China’s Domestic Private Firms: Multidisciplinary

Perspectives. New York: St. Martin’s Press,

forthcoming.

Selected Lectures, InvitedPresentations, and Testimony

Michael H. Armacost. “The U.S. and Japan in Asia.”

Japan-American Society of Northern California,

April 2005.

Michael H. Armacost. “Some Foreign Policy

Challenges in Asia.” Peninsula World Affairs Council,

February 2005.

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Like many of the Center’s faculty andresearchers, Rafiq Dossani travels widely topresent his research to interested groups andinstitutions. In 2004–05, Dossani gave numer-ous public presentations in the United States,Europe, and India, on the three projects he iscurrently pursuing. A selection of his recentappearances appears below.

Business process outsourcing to India andthe globalization of services• Brookings Institution, Washington, DC• Advanced Institute for Management

Research, London Business School• Asian American Manufacturers’

Association, San Jose• Sloan Industry Conference, Atlanta• University of California, Santa Cruz

Open source and software development• Carnegie/ILO Conference on Global

Production Systems, Washington, DC• Korean Venture Capital Association,

San Jose• IBM Research Center, Almaden• Confederation of Indian Industry, Bangalore

India-Pakistan relations and India’s growthprospects• Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC• Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies,

New Delhi• Nehru Center, Mumbai• Commonwealth Club, San Francisco• Asia Technology Initiative, Mumbai

Jean C. Oi. “Corporate Restructuring and SocialSecurity in State-Owned Enterprises: Lessons fromChina.” Inaugural conference on “ManagingGlobalization: Lessons from China and India,” heldin conjunction with the official opening of the LeeKuan Yew School of Public Policy, National Universityof Singapore, April 2005.

Henry S. Rowen. “China as a Center for TechnologyManufacturing, R&D, and Technology Innovation.”Testimony before the U.S.-China Commission. HooverInstitution, Stanford University, April 21, 2005.

Gi-Wook Shin. “Ethnic Nationalism in Korea.”Conference on Korean studies to commemorateKorea University’s centennial anniversary, Seoul,ROK, July 2005.

Gi-Wook Shin, “Is an Asian Identity Possible?Historical Experiences, Lessons, and Future Tasks.”Conference on “Asian Dynamism and Education inKorea,” Underwood International College, YonseiUniversity, June 2005.

Gi-Wook Shin. “Korea’s East.” Conference on“Korean Identities,” Yonsei University, October 2004.

52

To the thousands of Acehnese who had gathered to watch and listen, the images and sounds from the video-screens set up around the Baiturrahman mosque, in the devastated city of Banda Aceh, must have seemedsurreal. The speeches were in English, a language that many in the crowd did not understand. The speakerswere in Helsinki, Finland, more than 5,000 miles away. The date was August 15, 2005. The occasion wasthe signing of a peace agreement between the Indonesian government and the formerly secessionist AcehFreedom Movement (GAM). If the deal holds, a war between these two sides, which has lasted nearly thirtyyears and taken as many as 15,000 lives, will have come to an end.

Previous ceasefire accords, in 2000 and 2002, collapsed. This one may too. But it differs from its pred-ecessors. This time around, GAM shelved its demand for the independence of Aceh.

The biggest and most positive response from the crowd in Banda Aceh came when, in Helsinki, Indonesia’stop representative switched from English into Acehnese to quote a local proverb: “There is no rain that doesn’tstop; no war goes on forever.” At that moment, on the videoscreens, even GAM’s “prime minister” MalikMahmud could be seen applauding and nodding assent that the time for peace had indeed arrived. That markeda dramatic reversal from February 2000 at Stanford when, interviewed by APARC professor Donald Emmerson,Mahmud had insisted that GAM would settle for nothing less than independence.

The catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that had struck Aceh in December 2004 had come to an end.Now it was time for the war to follow suit. The natural disaster had killed upwards of 130,000 people andleft half a million homeless, dwarfing the toll from the war. More than anything, it was this greater calamitythat had caused GAM to change its mind.

An idealist could say that the two sides were brought together by the common challenge of helping Acehrecover. A realist could add, however, that Jakarta’s hand had been greatly strengthened against GAM. Thecrisis had rendered a few thousand rebel fighters irrelevant. They could not deliver the massive assistance—supplies, funds, workers—that was so desperately needed and that soon became available as foreign govern-ments and organizations lined up to contribute.

The Acehnese proverb did not, unfortunately, fit Sri Lanka. In August 2005, the civil war between thatgovernment and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) seemed no nearer to being resolved than it hadbeen before the tsunami, despite Sri Lanka’s having suffered more damage from the waves than any countrysave Indonesia. Indeed, on August 17, 2005, while Indonesians celebrated their independence day amidoptimism over Aceh, the Sri Lankan foreign minister was assassinated and his killing blamed on the LTTE.Unlike the productive peace talks that Finland had sponsored on Aceh, a Norwegian initiative to reconcileColombo and the LTTE appeared to be dragging on without result.

And even in Aceh, things could still go wrong. In particular, nationalist legislators in Jakarta could still pickapart the terms of the peace agreement. Those terms did not flatly preclude a scenario whereby GAM fighterscould regroup as a political party and campaign for a referendum on independence. Nevertheless, in August2005, among the suffering Acehnese, the proverbial logic that wars, like rain, must end, retained deep appeal.

“There is no rain that doesn’t stop; no war goes on forever.”

hot topic From Horror to Hope in Aceh, Indonesia

Donald K. EmmersonDirector, Southeast Asia Forum at Shorestein APARC; FSI Senior Fellow

people 53

DirectorsAndrew G. WalderDirectorProfessor, SociologySenior Fellow, FSI

Daniel I. OkimotoDirector, Shorenstein Forum,

2004–05Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein

APARCProfessor, Political ScienceSenior Fellow, FSI

Shiho Harada BarbirAssociate Director

FacultyMichael H. ArmacostShorenstein Distinguished Fellow

Donald K. EmmersonDirector, Southeast Asia ForumSenior Fellow, FSI

Jean OiWilliam Haas Professor of

Chinese PoliticsProfessor, Political Science

Director, Center for East Asian Studies

Henry S. RowenCo-director, SPRIEDirector-Emeritus, Shorenstein

APARCEdward B. Rust Professor of

Public Management Emeritus, Graduate School of Business

Senior Fellow Emeritus, Hoover Institution

Senior Fellow Emeritus, FSI

Gi-Wook ShinDirector, Korean Studies ProgramAssociate Professor, SociologySenior Fellow, FSI

Affiliated StanfordFacultyMelissa BrownAssistant Professor,

Anthropological Sciences

Larry DiamondSenior Fellow, Hoover Institution

Peter DuusWilliam H. Bonsall Professor of

Japanese History, EmeritusSenior Fellow, by courtesy,

Hoover Institution

Walter P. FalconDirector, CESPHelen C. Farnsworth Professor

of International Agricultural Policy, Emeritus

Senior Fellow, FSI

Alan GarberDirector, CHP/PCORHenry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor,

StanfordProfessor, Medicine Professor, by courtesy, Economics

and Health Research and PolicySenior Fellow, FSI

Mark GranovetterJoan Butler Ford Professor, School

of Humanities and SciencesProfessor, Sociology

Toshihiko HayashiChairman, Stanford Japan

Center–ResearchProfessor of Economics,

University of the Air, Japan

People

“Shorenstein APARC is a great place to work. One is surrounded by specialists, bothAmericans and Asians, who possess an incredible range of interests and experience, aredevoted to first-class scholarship, and are determined to apply conceptual insights tothe practical problems we face in our contemporary relationships in the Pacific.”Michael Armacost

54 people

Nicholas HopeDeputy Director, Center for

Research on Economic Development and Policy Reform, SIEPR

Stephen KrasnerDirector, CDDRLGraham H. Stuart Professor of

International RelationsSenior Fellow, by courtesy, SIEPR

and Hoover InstitutionSenior Fellow, FSI

John LewisProfessor Emeritus, CISACWilliam Haas Professor of

Chinese Politics, Emeritus Senior Fellow, FSI

Michael MaySenior Fellow, CISACProfessor (Research),

Engineering-Economic Systems and Operations Research, Emeritus

Ronald McKinnonEberle Professor of EconomicsSenior Fellow, by courtesy, SIEPR

John McMillanJonathan B. Lovelace Professor,

Graduate School of Business Senior Fellow, SIEPR

H. Lyman MillerResearch Fellow, Hoover

Institution

Ramon MyersSenior Fellow and Curator of the

East Asian Archives, Hoover Institution

William PerryMichael and Barbara Berberian

Professor, FSI and EngineeringCo-director, Preventive Defense

Project, CISACSenior Fellow, FSI

Masahiko AokiProfessor, EconomicsHenri H. and Tamoye Takahashi

Professor of Japanese StudiesSenior Fellow, by courtesy, SIEPR

William BarnettProfessor of Strategic Management

and Organizational Behavior, Graduate School of Business

Thomas HellerLewis Talbot and Nadine Hearn

Shelton Professor of International Legal Studies, Stanford Law School

Senior Fellow, FSI

Ken-Ichi ImaiSenior Fellow Emeritus, Stanford

Japan Center–ResearchSenior Fellow Emeritus, FSI

Isabel MaresAssistant Professor, Political

Science

William F. MillerCo-director, SPRIEHerbert Hoover Professor of

Public and Private Management, Emeritus, Graduate School of Business

Senior Fellow Emeritus, FSI

Research ScholarsJennifer AmyxShorenstein Fellow, 2004–05

Rafiq DossaniSenior Research Scholar

John FefferPantech Fellow, 2004–05

Marguerite Gong HancockAssociate Director, SPRIE

Joo-Youn JungTakahashi Predoctoral Fellow,

2004–05

Hong KalKorean Studies Fellow

Soyoung KwonShorenstein Fellow, 2004–05

Yukio NoguchiVisiting Professor

Chiho SawadaKorean Studies Fellow

Shimizu, Kaoru (Kay)Takahashi Predoctoral Fellow,

2004–05

Philip W. YunPantech Fellow, 2004–05

Visiting ScholarsNam-Kwan ChoSeoul Eastern Prosecutor’s

Office, ROK

Jen-Chang ChouFormerly with Science Division,

Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, San Francisco

Hyong-O KimGrand National Party, ROK

In-Yong LeeNational Assembly, ROK

Yusheng PengChinese University of Hong Kong

King TsaoChinese University of Hong Kong

Nam K. WooLG Electronics, Inc.

Taek-Soo YeoURI Party, Policy Development

Research Institute, ROK

Young-Kwan YoonSeoul National University

StaffVivian BeebeCenter Administrative Associate

Macy Chan, 2003–05

Jasmin HaKorean Studies Program

Coordinator

George KrompackySPRIE Program Coordinator

Neeley MainSenior Program and Outreach

Coordinator

Denise MasumotoManager of Corporate Relations

Yumi Onoyama Hiroshima1997–2005

Rowena RosarioAssistant to Rafiq Dossani,

Marguerite Gong Hancock, and Henry Rowen

Huma ShaikhHR and Finance Administrator

Victoria TomkinsonPublications Manager

Debbie WarrenAssistant to the Directors and

Michael Armacost

Des

ign:

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Cover photos (top to bottom): Detail of bronze bust of Walter H. Shorenstein, for whom the Center is named; a standing-room–only audience listens to an address by Kim Dae-Jung, former President of the Republic of Korea; incoming ShorensteinAPARC director Gi-Wook Shin introduces Kim Dae-Jung. Photos above (top to bottom): Congressman Curt Weldon (R-PA)addresses the conference “North Korea: 2005 and Beyond”; Jean Oi celebrates the graduation of several of her graduate students;panelists discuss university-industry linkage in the United States, Taiwan, and Mainland China at a recent SPRIE symposium.

2 Letter from the Director4 Looking Forward6 Salute to Walter H. Shorenstein12 Supporting Shorenstein APARC14 Donors16 Research32 Programs44 Outreach53 People

Photos (top to bottom): Sumisho Electronics President and CEO Yasuyuki “Tex” Abe speaks at Shorenstein APARC on applyingthe best practices of Silicon Valley in Japan; Takeshi Ota, from Tokyo Electric Power Company, presents his research project;visiting fellows from the 2004–05 class take part in the annual Shorenstein APARC Halloween Pumpkin Carving Contest.

THE WALTER H. SHORENSTEINASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTERSTANFORD UNIVERSITY

CENTER OVERVIEW 2004 –2005

cooperation

development

transitionTHE WALTER H. SHORENSTEIN

ASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTER

Stanford University

Encina Hall, E301

Stanford, CA 94305-6055

Phone: 650-723-9741

Fax: 650-723-6530

http://APARC.stanford.edu