The use of forward looking information at UBA

State – Challenge - Vision

Content of the presentation

1. Organisation of UBA – Flow of information

2. Environmental reporting

3. „Greenhouse gases“ – an example of presenting data.

4. Looking into the future…

5. The Vision: What do we want to reach?

Organisation of UBA

With more detail...

Environmental Reporting …

Highly aggregated

indice

Key-Indicators

Core-Indicators

Basic-Raw-Data

Interpretated Data

And where is the forward looking information?

Presentation of data: e.g. Emission of GHG…

But also in the future

• “data related to reporting of Policies and Measures and Projected Emissions required under Article 3(2) of the Monitoring Mechanism Decision (Commission Decision 280/2004/EC) and elaborated in Articles 8, 9 and 10 of the Implementing Provisions (Commission Decision 2005/166/EC) and UNFCCC reporting guidelines for national communications (FCCC/CP/1999/7)”

For example: Projections …

… model and scenario based…

-IKARUS-ELIAS-ASTRA-PowerACE-ISI-GreenX

CO2

N2O

Policy-scenarios

CF

e.g. TREMOD

Megatrends

MeasuresCH4

Looking to the future…

• Aprox. 20 Models in use

• Around 10 scenario studies ongoing

IKARUS

RAUMIS/GAS-EM

WI/DLR

TREMOD-4

REMO/WETTREG

Energy reference scenario

Long term scenarios

Policy scenarios III

Policy scenarios IV

Reference scenarioEfficiency scenarioSustainability scenario

Expansion of renewable energies - scenario

Reference scenario

BASIS IBASIS IINatureConservationPlus INatureConservationPlus II

NAWARO-AREAS BAU I scenarioBAU II scenario

Models

BASiS Reference scenarioSustainability scenario

Scenarios of emissions from agriculture

Climate scenarios

Scenario studies Scenarios

A1BA1B2

Model basic scenario

Reductions scenario IIReductions scenario I

Measures-scenario

Additional-measures-scenario

FEA-energy reference scenarioo

Basic scenarioScenario 1

IssuesReference scenario ofEnquete-commission

PROGNOS/EWI

Methodological overview...

G

R

YY N N

1. Q ualita tive2. Q uantitative3. Hybrid

Type

OrientationAnticipatory Exploratory

2

3

1

2

3

1

baseline scenariopolicy scenario

Furtherdifferentiations

1. Energy reference scenario2. Policy scenarios III3. Policy scenarios IV4. Long term scenarios5. Expansion of renewable energies scenario6. NAWARO-AREAS7. BASiS8. Climate scenarios9. Scenarios of emissions from agriculture

 

And internationally...

G

R

JJ N N

1. Q ualita tive2. Q uantitative3. hybrid

Type

OrientationAnticipatory Exploratory

2

3

1

2

3

1

baseline scenariopolicy scenario

Furtherdifferentiations

1. Meadows: Limits to Growth

2. GEO-3 Scenarios (RIVM/UNEP,2003)

3. Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice (SEI/GSG,)

4. Bending the curve: Toward Global Sustainability (SEI/GSG, 1998)

5. Scenarios Europe 2010: Five possible futures for Europe (European Commission Forward Studies Unit, 1999)

6. VISIONS (European Commission, 2001)

7. Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC, 2000)

8. Global Scenarios 2000-2050 (WBCSD, 1998)

And the vision...

• Inventory of models -> template of EEA• List of (posible) forward looking indicators• Catalogue of relevant scenario studies• Mainstreaming of basic „megatrend“ ->

Reference scenario (-> call for evidence)• Enhancing methodologies, e.g. „impact-

networks“, cross-impact-analysis, etc.

„Key for standardized reporting

Thank you very much for your attention!