The Use of Demographic Scenarios in 

Cross-authority Plan-making

Graham GardnerNottingham City Council

Steve BufferyDerbyshire County Council

Richard CooperNottinghamshire County Council (formerly)

• Planning Policy Context

• Collaborative Working in Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire

• Growth scenarios used in the projections

• Using the scenarios – Greater Nottingham

• Conclusions & questions

Outline

Where do we go from here?!

Before, with a Regional Plan

Regional Plan

Three CitiesSub-regional Strategy

Northern Sub-Regional

Strategy…etc…

Greater Nottingham HMA

Derby HMA Leicestershire HMA

City & district LDFs / local plans

After – with Localism

Northern (officer)liaison group ?

Greater Nottingham HMA Aligned work

Derby HMA grouping Leicestershire ?

City & district LDFs / local plans

NPPF

?

After – with Localism

Northern (officer)liaison group ?

Greater Nottingham HMA Aligned work

Derby HMA grouping Leicestershire ?

City & district LDFs / local plans

NPPF

?

Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham,

Nottinghamshire

NNDD Housing Market Areas

Northern (part of Sheffield HMA)

Nottingham “Core”, including Erewash (Derbyshire)

• Funding from East Midlands Councils (formerly EMRA)

• Steering group – 4 Upper tier & two district representatives

• Six key scenarios commissioned from Edge Analytics

• Scenarios were discussed and agreed with all the authorities in both Counties.

• Derbyshire were current users of Popgroup – would carry on as ‘bureau’: costings on a per ‘run’ basis.

Commissioning the Projections

• Officers Trained on demographics, modelling & principles

• Members informed & educated on scenarios & outcomes

• Understanding dynamics and outcomes – ‘what if’.

• No “Right Answer”

• Planning decisions on housing in the Local Plan process

Educating users

The use of scenarios

• A selection of possibilities to inform plan-making

• Not to determine a “right” housing provision figure

• However – NPPF requires an “Objectively Assessed Housing Need” – Inspectors focussed on this.

• Dwelling–led Scenario - Past house-building

• Natural Change Scenario – Births & deaths; no migration

• Net Nil-Migration Scenario - Balanced in- & out-migration

• Long-Term Migration Scenario – Past migration levels

• Employment-led Scenario – Based on “jobs”

• SNPP Scenario - 2008-based ONS Projections.

The Growth Scenarios

Greater Nottingham Scenarios - Housing numbers (17-year)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

AlignedCore

Strategies(RSS)

CLGProjections

NaturalChange

BalancedMigration

Long TermMigration

No Increasein Jobs

Past HouseBuilding

Rates

New

Ho

mes

Nottingham and Broxtowe projections compared

– Population

• NOTTINGHAM CITY • BROXTOWE

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Forecast age group: Total

YEAR

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

330,000

350,000

370,000

390,000

410,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Forecast age group: Total

YEAR

Challenges and Use of Projections - Greater Nottingham

• Strategy aimed for in-migration – Projections showed this to be so.

• Jobs / population mapped– Inter-dependence of the City & surrounding area.

• Planned housing ► Commuting ►

Distribution of jobs ► Land availability ►

Employment land

PAS response – “Not planning for growth” – – Employment related to labour force

Jobs Growth versus Workforce

340,000

350,000

360,000

370,000

380,000

390,000

400,000 20

03

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Greater Nottingham: Comparison of jobs / workforce trajectories

NCRELS Off ice Jobs NCRELS All jobs

NCRELS All jobs Forecast labour force (1)

A/c students & econ activity improvement @1%

18,00023,650

Alternative headship rate trajectories

• Actual households falling behind projection.

• Imply larger households

• Economic conditions • Slow housing market• Higher student numbers (larger households) • International migrants with higher household occupancy rates?

• Used 2010 as base to carry household growth forward on 3 different trends. NB Edge did this work.

• Three authorities showed effects – household representation rates adjusted.

Alternative Household Growth

Latest Household Projections

• CLG 2011 interim household projections have confirmed the household rate work.

• But population aspect of new projections is more doubtful.

Working together

Some Conclusions / Lessons

• Commuting & Jobs

• Officer support & confidence-building.

• District Councillor responsibility

• Useful to show implications of decisions

• Member attitudes can still rule

• Always need to deal with interactions across boundaries

Questions raised

• How do we model for growing employment? – when tried it did not give reasonable outcomes

• How do we persuade people to use instead of ONS for resource planning?

• How do you demonstrate ‘Objectively Assessed Housing Need’ to an Inspector?

• Have we got international migration right?

Links

• GN documentation & examination – – www.gngrowthpoint.com

• Mansfield - Google – “Mansfield how many dwellings?”

• Ashfield – Google –“Population Household Forecasts Ashfield”