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The U.S. Retirement Market. Gregory B. Salsbury, Ph.D. Executive Vice President Jackson National Life Distributors, Inc. The U.S. Retirement Market. The scope of the U.S. retirement savings market The evolution of retirement The need for financial planning and advice. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
The U.S. Retirement Market
Gregory B. Salsbury, Ph.D.Executive Vice President
Jackson National Life Distributors, Inc.
2
The U.S. Retirement Market
I. The scope of the U.S. retirement savings market
II. The evolution of retirement III. The need for financial planning and
advice
3
Retirement Assets by Country
Source: JNL Market Research
USA71%
UK10%
Japan9%
W. Europe7%
Rest of Asia3%
4
Top 10 Global Life Insurers(By Gross Written Premium)
Company Name Country of Incorporation
Domestic (US) Affiliates
Nippon Life Insurance Company
Japan Nippon Life Insurance of America
AXA France AXA Rosenberg, AXA Financial, Inc., AXA Advisors, AXA Distributors, LLC, The Equitable Life Assurance Society of the United States, Alliance Capital Management L.P. (53%-owned), AXA Group, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
ING Groep N.V. The Netherlands ING Aetna Financial Services, ING Aetna International, ING North America Insurance Corporation, ING ReliaStar Financial Corp., ING Baring (US) Financial Holdings Corporation, CLARION CRA Securities, ING Furman Selz Asset Management
Prudential plc United Kingdom Jackson National Life Insurance Company, Jackson National Life of New York, Jackson Federal Bank, National Planning Holdings, Inc., PPM America, Inc.
Metropolitan Life United States MetLife Securities, Inc., State Street Research & Management Company, GenAmerica Corp., General American Life Insurance Company, Metropolitan Tower Life Insurance Co., New England Life Insurance Co., Security First Life Insurance Co., Nathan & Lewis Securities, Walnut Street Securities
American International Group, Inc.
United States SunAmerica Inc., American General Corporation, 21st Century Insurance Group, AIG Global Investment Group, American Life Insurance Company, HSB Group, Inc., John McStay Investment Counsel, L.P.
The Dai-ichi Mutual Life Insurance Company
Japan American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus (AFLAC)
Allianz AG Germany Allianz Insurance Company, Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America, Fireman’s Fund Insurance Company, Jefferson Insurance Company, NFJ Investment Group, Nicholas-Applegate Capital Management, Pacific Investment Management Company LLC
Aviva plc United Kingdom CGU Life Insurance Company of America, CGU Corporation, Commercial Union Life Insurance Company of America
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.
United States Hartford Life, Inc., Hartford Investment Management Company, HartRe, Fortis Financial
Source: AM Best, UBS Warburg Research, Company Accounts. Worldwide Life 2001 GWP.
5
Investable Retirement Assets in the U.S.
$4.0
$5.3
$7.3$7.8
$9.2
$10.7
$12.5
$14.5
$6.6
$0
$5
$10
$15
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Ret
irem
ent M
arke
t Ass
ets
($Tr
illio
ns)
Total Private Retirement Market Assets(In $Trillions)
Source: Cerulli Report, Retirement Industry Update: Trends in 401(k) and IRA Markets 2002
$7 trillion and growing
6
Jackson National Life Assets
$29,148
$33,096
$36,214
$43,953
$47,242$49,919
$40,521
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (Q2)
JNL
Ass
ets
($M
illio
ns)
Total JNL Assets(In $Millions)
GAAP assets. Excludes FAS-115, FAS-133, reverse repurchase obligations, and securities lending deposits.
Nearly $50 billion and growing
7
U.S. Investor Holdings
19%
49%
15%19% 17%
30%
93%
3%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RetirementAcounts
Certificatesof Deposit
SavingsBonds
MutualFunds
Stocks Bonds LifeInsurance
AnyFinancial
Investment
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Survey of Consumer Finances, 1998; The American Marketplace New Strategist Publications, 2001
Percentage of families holding investment assets
8
$146,500
$9,000
$63,000
$105,500
$127,500 $125,600
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
Less than 35 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 or more
Demographics: Net Worth by Age▲ Seniors hold the wealth▲ The myth of the young millionaire
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Survey of Consumer Finances, 1998.
9
The U.S. Retirement Market
I. The scope of the U.S. retirement savings market
II. The evolution of retirement III. The need for financial planning and
advice
10
Pension and Retirement Changes
1935
1974
1978
1997
2001
2002
Social Security Act
Employment Retirement Income Security Act
Revenue Act
Taxpayer Relief Act
Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act
Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act
11
Social Security Overburdened
▲ Social Security doesn’t pay very much▲ Most Americans depend on it▲ The ratio of payees to beneficiaries is
shrinking▲ Future retirees will not likely receive
Social Security
Source: General Accounting Office; Cerulli Associates.
12
Benefits warning!Benefits warning!
In 15 years or less, Social Security will start In 15 years or less, Social Security will start paying out more than it takes in. By 2075, it paying out more than it takes in. By 2075, it will be $22.2 trillion in the hole. will be $22.2 trillion in the hole.
Source:Source: Barron’sBarron’s, “Pension Poverty,” January 28, 2002, “Pension Poverty,” January 28, 2002
13
Death of the Company Pension
▲ Companies unable to meet pension responsibilities
▲ Defined Benefit yields to Defined Contribution
▲ The boom in additional retirement plans
Source: General Accounting Office; Cerulli Associates.
14
Today’s Retirement PlansDefined Contribution Plans
All Company
403(b)
IndividualEmployer/Group
Qualified
Public
457
Traditional 401(k)
Money Purchase
Profit Sharing
Small Company
Individual 401(k)
SIMPLE 401(k)
SIMPLE IRA
SEP IRA
Safe Harbor 401(k)
Traditional 401(k)
Traditional IRA
Roth IRA
Alternative Savings Vehicles
Non-qualified
Annuities
Life Insurance
15
$1.3$1.8
$1.6$2.0
$2.5$3.0
$3.6
$4.4
$0.5 $0.6 $0.7 $0.6 $0.7 $0.8 $0.9 $1.1 $1.3$0.9
$0.0
$2.5
$5.0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Ret
irem
ent A
sset
s ($
Trill
ions
)
Other DC Assets 401(k) Assets
Defined Contribution Assets Grow
Source: Cerulli Report, Retirement Industry Update: Trends in 401(k) and IRA Markets 2002
$1.4
$1.9
$2.5$2.2
$2.7
$3.3
$3.9
$4.7
$5.7
16
IRA Assets
$1.1$1.5
$2.2$2.6
$2.9
$3.5
$4.2
$5.1
$0
$2
$4
$6
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
IRA
Ass
ets
($Tr
illio
ns)
Source: Cerulli Report, Retirement Industry Update: Trends in 401(k) and IRA Markets 2002
Americans are managing nearly $3 trillion in IRA assets
17
Variable Annuity Sales Growth
$4.5
$112.8
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1985 2001
Source: J.P. Morgan and VARDS
($ in billions)
18
Variable Annuity Asset Growth
$176.0
$882.9
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
1991 2001
Source: J.P. Morgan and VARDS
($ in billions)
19
Fixed Annuity Sales Growth
$23.6
$74.3
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
1985 2001
Source: LIMRA
($ in billions)
20Source: J.P. Morgan, VARDS, and LIMRA
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Indu
stry
Ann
uity
Sal
es($
Bill
ions
)
Fixed VA EIA
Industry Annuity Sales
$131 $134
$196
$171$192
After Years of Variable Annuity Growth, Fixed Sales are Back
21
JNL Retirement Funding Vehicles
▲ Fixed annuities▲ Variable annuities▲ Equity-indexed annuities▲ Life insurance
22
Today’s Retirement PlansDefined Contribution Plans
All Company
403(b)
IndividualEmployer/Group
Qualified
Public
457
Traditional 401(k)
Money Purchase
Profit Sharing
Small Company
Individual 401(k)
SIMPLE 401(k)
SIMPLE IRA
SEP IRA
Safe Harbor 401(k)
Traditional 401(k)
Traditional IRA
Roth IRA
Alternative Savings Vehicles
Non-qualified
Annuities
Life Insurance
23
Today’s Retirement PlansDefined Contribution
All Company
403(b)
IndividualEmployer/Group
Qualified
Public
457
Traditional 401(k)
Money Purchase
Profit Sharing
Small Company
Individual 401(k)
Simple 401(k)
Simple IRA
SEP IRA
Safe Harbor 401(k)
Traditional 401(k)
Traditional IRA
Roth IRA
Alternative Savings Vehicles
Non-qualified
Annuities
Life Insurance
Under Review
Directly
Through TPA
24
Aging baby boomersAging baby boomers
++Pension Pension Self directed Self directed
==Enormous Enormous personalpersonal wealth wealth
Driven by a Dying Pension System
25
The Aging of the Aged
▲ 80+ U.S. population growing 5 times faster than overall population
▲ By the year 2030 in the U.S., the demographics of 32 states will resemble those of Florida today
▲ By the year 2005, eldercare will replace childcare as the number one dependent care in the U.S.
Source: Peterson, Peter G. Gray Dawn, OECD (1996); Department of Labor, www.lifeinsuranceselling.com, “The LTC Solution,” December 2001.
▲ By the year 2030, one in four people in the developed world will be aged 65 or older
26
46
8086
48
8492
0
20
40
60
80
100
1900 2000 2050Men Women
Average Life Expectancy
Source: National Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 48, No. 18, Feb. 7, 2001; U.S. Census Bureau projections, 1996; National Center for Health Statistics
27
Retiring Younger
Source: Burtless, Gary and J.F. Quinn. (2000) “Retirement Trends and Policies to Encourage Work Among Older Americans” and AARP (2000), “Beyond 50: A Report to the Nation on Economic Security.”
70
65 6564
6362
56
60
64
68
72
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
28
The Increasing Tax Bite
Source: Combined federal, state, and local taxes per capita as a percentage of income, 2001. Special Report, No. 104, April 2001, Tax Foundation
33.8%
30.3%30.1%29.3%
24.4%27.3%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001
The Tax Foundation has shown that the typical two-earner family now spends more on federal, state, and local taxes than on shelter, food, clothing and transportation combined.
Source: “Tax Freedom Day Arrives,” www.house.gov/dunn/oped/txfree2.htm
29
1 Top Taxpayer
49 Middle Taxpayers36%
60%
4%50 Bottom Taxpayers
Source: Tax Foundation, February 2002
Who Pays America’s Taxes?100 Taxpayers – February 2002
30
JNL Provides Answers
▲ Retirement funding vehicles– Taxed deferred savings– Accumulation and distribution– Options for every risk profile
31
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Total Number of Policyholders
1995 to 2001Prior to 1995
Source: JNL Market Research1. Investment Clients are policyholders who purchased investment products such as
Annuities, Stocks, Bonds and Mutual Funds. It does not include Life Insurance.
JNL Growing Client Base
800,000
600,000
1,400,000
JNL investment clients1 increased 75%
32
JNL Investor Profile
30%
9%
66%
44%
60%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Total Life Fixed VA EIA
% o
f Pol
icyh
olde
rs W
ho a
re R
etire
d
Source: JNL Market Research
Two-thirds of JNL Fixed Annuity owners are retired
33
JNL Investor Profile
44%54%
32% 34%22%
23%
30%
20% 10%
6%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Total Life Fixed EIA VA
% o
f Pol
icyh
olde
rs Income $60K-$90K Income $90K67%
28%
52%
84%
44%
Source: JNL Market Research; 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances.
National Average = $33,000
Two-thirds of JNL investors have incomes in excess of $60K
34
$74,000
$123,000 $121,000 $124,500$133,500
$184,500
$0
$100,000
$200,000
US Average JNL Total LifeInsurance
Fixed Perspective Persp.Advisor
Ave
rage
Hou
seho
ld In
vest
able
Ass
ets
JNL Product Line
JNL Investor Profile
Source: JNL Market Research; Board of Governors of Federal Reserve, Survey of Consumer Finances, 1998.
On average, JNL policyholders have 66% higher wealth
35
The U.S. Retirement Market
I. The scope of the U.S. retirement savings market
II. The evolution of retirement III. The need for financial planning and
advice
36
The Impact of the Bull and the Bear on Investors
37
Average Annual Returns
Certificates of Deposit3 6.48%
S&P 5001 16.29%
Average Investor2 5.32%
Sources: 1 Ibbotson Associates 2002 Yearbook2 Dalbar, Inc., “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior,” June 21, 2001 3 www.federalreserve.gov, 1-month CDs
January 1, 1984 - December 31, 2000
38Sources: Gallup, Paine Webber, ICI, Strategic Insight, SIA, Federal Reserve Board, Nasdaq, Sept. 21, 2001; Yahoo Finance
The Equity Ride▲ 1982 to 1999 - large cap stocks
averaged 18.5%▲ Five consecutive years of 20+% growth▲ U.S. household equity ownership doubled ▲ Number of millionaires doubled between
1994 and 2000 (7.2 million)▲ 85% of all equity mutual fund accounts
were added in the 1990s (48% after 1995)▲ What investors were taught …
39
40
The Equity Ride▲ Investors ended the decade expecting annual
portfolio returns of 19-22%▲ Holding periods plummeted
▲ At the end of the decade, there were 8,000+ retail mutual funds. The 10 best-selling equity funds accounted for 44% of net inflows
Sources: Gallup, Paine Webber, ICI, Strategic Insight, SIA, Federal Reserve Board, Nasdaq, Sept. 21, 2001, Yahoo Finance
Mutual funds = 33 monthsStocks = 10 monthsNASDAQ = 5 months
41Sources: Gallup, Paine Webber, ICI, Strategic Insight, SIA, Federal Reserve Board, Nasdaq, Sept. 21, 2001, Yahoo Finance
The Equity Ride
▲ As of 3/00, an unprecedented percentage of household assets in categories subject to principal loss
▲ “Buy” recommendations outnumbered “sells” 72 to 1
42
And Then, The Ride Was Over …
▲ 2000 worst year for S&P 500 since 1974, and then it got worse
▲ By March of 2001 we hit official “Bear” territory for every major index
▲ Then it got worse again …
Sources: Gallup, Paine Webber, ICI, Strategic Insight, SIA, Federal Reserve Board, Nasdaq, Sept. 21, 2001, Yahoo Finance
43
From Their Peaks …
DJIA - 35.24%S&P 500 - 46.62%MSCI EAFE - 49.43%NASDAQ - 76.78%
Source: As of 9/30/02, www.mscidata.com, http://finance.yahoo.com
44
The Five Stages of Loss
I. ShockII. DenialIII. Hurt IV. AngerV. Acceptance
45
Advisor Issues
▲ Frightened investors▲ Fee-based pricing▲ Pursuit of the affluent
46
JNL is Well-Positioned
▲ Capitalizing on the retirement market
▲ Focusing on advisors▲ Understanding investors
47