The Urgent Case for a Ban Fracking - Europe

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    Food & Water Europe

    About Food & Water Europe

    Copyright © September 2014 by Food & Water Europe. All rights reserved. 

    This report can be viewed or downloaded at foodandwatereurope.org.

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  i

    I

    n many ways, racking is he environmenal issue o our ime. I’s an issue ha

    ouches on every aspec o our lives — he waer we drink, he air we breahe, he

    healh o our communiies — and i is also impacing he global climae on whichwe all depend. I pis he larges corporae ineress — big oil and gas companies and

    he poliical leaders who suppor hem — agains people and he environmen in a

    long-erm sruggle or survival. I is an issue ha has capivaed he hears and minds

    o hundreds o housands o people across he Unied Saes, Europe and across he

    globe. And i is an area in which, despie he massive resources o he Frackopoly — he

    cabal o oil and gas ineress promoing his pracice — we as a movemen are making

    remendous srides as our collecive power coninues o grow.

    Food & Waer Europe is proud o work shoulder o shoulder wih communiies across Europe and across he world in

    his effor. Wih mouning evidence abou he harms o racking and he immediacy o he impending climae crisis,

    his repor lays ou he urgen case or a ban on racking.In 2009, we became alarmed abou he hrea ha hydraulic racuring (racking) posed o waer resources across

    he Unied Saes. Communiies around he Unied Saes were already raising he alarm abou he ill effecs ha

    racking was having, rom increased ruck raffic o spills and even ap waer ha could be li on ire hanks o

    mehane leaks rom racking wells ino waer sources.

    Meanwhile, many naional environmenal groups were ouing naural gas as a “bridge uel” — a beter means o

    producing energy rom ossil uels han coal, a source ha everyone knew we had o move away rom urgenly o

    reduce he carbon emissions ha were heaing he plane a a dangerous rae. Communiies ha were already eeling

    he effecs o he echnology, or ha were ighing he coming wave o racking, el berayed ha he place hey

    lived could become one o he sacriicial zones — wih many environmenaliss’ blessing. Over he nex ew years,

    scieniic evidence would moun ha no only is racking no climae riendly, bu i has he poenial o unleashmassive amouns o mehane ha will conribue o climae disaser.

    So we began our work on racking wih Not So Fast, Natural Gas , our repor ha raised serious quesions abou

    racking saey and he naural gas rush being promoed by indusry and governmen. Tha repor, released in 2010,

    called or a series o regulaory reorms, bu he evidence coninued o moun. The nex year, afer looking a even

    greaer evidence o he inheren problems wih racking, and realizing how inadequaely he saes were regulaing

    he oil and gas indusry and enorcing hose regulaions, Food & Waer Europe was one o he irs European organ-

    isaions o call or a complee ban on racking and we released he repor The Case for a Ban on Gas Fracking .

    Since he release o ha repor in 2011, more han 150 addiional sudies have been conduced on a range o issues

    — rom waer polluion o climae change, air polluion o earhquakes — reinorcing he case ha racking is simply

    oo unsae o pursue. In he ace o such sudies, and ollowing he lead o grassroos organizaions ha have been a

    he oreron o his movemen, a consensus is emerging among hose working agains racking ha a ban is he only

    soluion. No only are decision-makers no regulaing he pracice o racking, i is so dangerous and he poenial so

    grea ha i canno be regulaed, even i here were he poliical will.

    As his repor lays ou, here is mouning evidence ha racking is inherenly unsae. Evidence builds ha racking

    conaminaes waer, pollues air, hreaens public healh, causes earhquakes, harms local economies and decreases

    propery values.

    And mos criically or he survival o he plane, racking exacerbaes and acceleraes climae change. We are acing

    a climae crisis ha is already having devasaing impacs and ha is projeced o escalae o caasrophic levels i we

    do no ac now. Our eleced officials ou racked gas as a “bridge uel,” ye mouning evidence suggess ha raherhan serving as a bridge o a renewable energy uure, i’s a bridge o a climae crisis.

    Letter from Wenonah HauterExecutive Director, Food & Water Europe

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    ii  Food & Water Europe

    While he environmenal, public healh and ood movemens have looked a mouning evidence and rejeced racked

    gas and oil, Presiden Obama and his adminisraion have aggressively promoed naural gas and domesic oil as a

    criical par o he Unied Saes’ energy uure. Presiden Obama repeaedly ous domesic gas producion and has

    said ha “we should srenghen our posiion as he op naural gas producer … [I] no only can provide sae, cheap

    power, bu i can also help reduce our carbon emissions.” His Energy Secreary Ernes Moniz has close indusry ies

    and has claimed ha he has “no seen any evidence o racking per se conaminaing groundwaer” and ha “he

    issues in erms o he environmenal ooprin o hydraulic racuring are manageable.”

    Despie wha he US governmen and indusry claim, here have now been over 150 sudies on racking and isimpacs ha raise concerns abou he risks and dangers o racking and highligh how litle we know abou is long-

    erm effecs on healh and our limied reshwaer supplies. I’s ime or our eleced leaders o look a he acs and

    hink abou heir legacy. How do hey wan o be remembered? Wha do hey wan he world o look like 20, 50 and

    100 years rom now?

    We irs made he case or a ban on racking in 2011, bu his new repor shows ha here is an urgen case or a ban.

    The evidence is in, and i is clear and overwhelming. Fracking is inherenly unsae, canno be regulaed and should be

    banned. Insead, we should ransiion aggressively o a renewable and efficien energy sysem.

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  1

    Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    Water and Land Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

    Water consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

    Impacts on surface waters, forests and soils . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

    Aquifer contamination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

    Mehane and oher hydrocarbon gases  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

    Hydrocarbon gases in aquiers as a sign o more problems o come  . . . . . . . . . . 10

    Earthquakes, Lightning Strikes and Exploding Trains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

    Air and Climate Impacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

    Silica dust. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

    Byproducts from combustion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15

    The pollutants that oil and gas companies bring to the surface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

    Emissions are larger han officials esimae  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

    Naural gas dependence causes more global warming han hough . . . . . . . . . . .18

    Public Health, Economic and Social Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

    Ban Fracking and Usher in a Safe and Sustainable Energy Future . . . . . . . . . . . 22

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

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    2  Food & Water Europe

    Executive SummaryThe erm “racking” has come o mean more han jus

    he speciic process o injecing large volumes o various

    mixes o waer, sand and chemicals deep underground,

    a exreme pressure, o creae racures in argeed rock

    ormaions — all so ighly held oil and gas migh low.

    We now use he erm racking o represen all ha his

    speciic process o hydraulic racuring enails. Allowingmore racking means ha oil and gas companies will

    coninue o:

    Fragment forests and mar landscapes wih new

    roads, well sies, wase pis and pipelines;

    Compete with farmers for local water supplies 

    while consuming millions o liers o waer or each

    racked well;

    Produce massive volumes of toxic and even

    radioactive waste, he disposal o which is causing

    earhquakes and puting a risk drinking waerresources;

    Cause thousands of accidents, leaks and spills 

    each year ha hreaen public healh and saey

    and pu a risk rivers, sreams, shallow aquiers and

    arms;

    Pump hazardous pollutants into the air, a he

    expense o local communiies, amilies and arms;

    Turn homes into explosive hazards by conami-

    naing waer wells wih mehane and oher lam-

    mable gases; Put vital aquifers at risk for generations by

    creaing new pahways or he poenial low o

    conaminans over he coming years and decades;

    Destabilize the climate on which we all depend 

    wih emissions o carbon dioxide and mehane and

    by locking in uure climae polluion wih new oil

    and gas inrasrucure projecs; and

    Disrupt local communities, wih broad physical

    and menal healh consequences, increased demand

    on emergency and oher social services, damage o

    public roads, declines in propery value, increased

    crime, and losses el in esablished secors o local

    economies.

    In 2011, Food & Waer Europe called or a ban on

    racking because o he signiican risks and harms ha

    accompany he pracice. Now, over hree years laer,

    numerous peer-reviewed sudies published in scieniic,

    legal and policy journals have expanded wha is known

    — and clariied wha remains unknown — abou he

    environmenal, public healh and socioeconomic impacs

    ha sem rom racking. In his repor, Food & Waer

    Europe reviews he science and renews is call or a ban.

    We ind ha he open quesions amoun o unaccepable

    risk, and ha he harms are cerain. Sringen regulaions,

    even i pu in place and even i adequaely enorced,

    would no make racking sae. Municipal bans, mora-

    oria and zoning laws are being passed o ry o proec

    communiies across he counry, bu ederal and sae

    level acion is necessary o reverse he spread o racking.

    The only pah o a susainable economic uure is o

    rebuild he our energy sysem and local economies around

    sae energy soluions: efficiency, conservaion and renew-

    able resources. Fracking akes us in he wrong direcion.

    IntroductionHydraulic racuring allows oil and gas companies oarge underground layers o rock ha hold oil and

    gas, bu ha do no readily allow he oil and gas o

    low up a well. Drilling hrough hese rock ormaions,

    hen injecing a blend o waer, sand and chemicals a

    exreme pressure, creaes racures propped open by he

    sand, exposing oherwise ighly held oil and gas and

    allowing i o low.

    PHOTO BY HENDRIK VOSS

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  3

    In response o declines in convenional producion, and

    o he lack o access o many inernaional sources o

    oil and gas,1 companies are now racking in he Unied

    Saes on an unprecedened scale. (See Box 1.) Acids are

    also being injeced, paricularly in Caliornia and perhaps

    increasingly in Florida, o ea away new pahways or oil

    and gas o low, wih or wihou creaing new racures.2

    The oil and gas indusry enjoys avored saus under

    he law and an enrenched posiion in U.S. poliics,

    economics and insiuions. This creaes an ineria ha

    imperils curren and uure generaions, and endangers

    our economy, as we ace he consequences o global

    warming and he legacy o he indusry’s polluion.

    The curren saus quo a he ederal level, and in many

    saes, is o encourage as much drilling and racking or

    oil and gas as possible. Increased poliical and legislaive

    gridlock in Washingon, D.C. has helped o mainain

    his saus quo.14 Those wih large sakes in oil and

    gas producion — a angle o oil and gas companies,

    engineering and consrucion irms, environmenal

    consulancies, rade associaions, public relaions and

    markeing irms, inancial insiuions and large indi-

    vidual invesors — sand o proi rom his saus quo.

    Revolving doors and srucural ies beween he indusry

    and sae and ederal agencies,15 academic research

    groups ha ac as saellie indusry labs and hink

    anks,16 and indusry conrol o access o daa and sies,17 

    as well as echnical experise,18 all illusrae he exen o

    he oil and gas indusry’s capure o U.S. energy policy.The oil and gas indusry’s inluence is releced in he

    exempions ha i enjoys in key provisions o all o he

    landmark environmenal laws, including he Clean Air

    Ac, he Sae Drinking Waer Ac, he Clean Waer Ac

    and laws regulaing hazardous wases.19 

    Over a rillion dollars in “sunk” coss in inrasrucure

    avors he saus quo o dependence on he oil and gas

    indusry, serving as a barrier o he remaking o he U.S.

    energy sysem.20 The oil and gas indusry receives abou

    $4 billion each year in direc axpayer-unded subsidies.21 The Sierra Club and Oil Change Inernaional recenly

    calculaed ha subsidies o he ossil uel indusry in

    2009 and 2010 amouned o a 59 o 1 reurn on he

    money ha he indusry spen hose years on lobbying

    and on inancing poliical campaigns.22 The European

    Union should no ollow he energy policies ha have

    prevailed in he US

    In his repor, Food & Waer Europe summarizes recen

    scieniic lieraure on he waer polluion, landscape

    changes, air polluion, climae polluion and wasedisposal problems brough on by drilling and racking or

    The scale of fracking To hydraulically fracture a modern onshore oil or

    gas well, batches of millions of liters of water, tons of

    sand and thousands of liters of chemicals get injected

    repeatedly, typically in tens of stages along a two and

    a half kilometer long, several-inches-wide tunnel,

    or borehole, that runs laterally through a targeted

    rock formation thousands of feet below ground. Oil

    and gas companies are now doing this more than10,000 times each year in the United States to extract

    so-called shale gas, tight gas and tight oil.3 Acids are

    and this is not always done at pressures high enough

    largely unknown, but the practice is clearly on the rise

    and a focus of the oil and gas industry.4

    In 2012, the U.S. Energy Information Administration

    estimated that bringing the projected amounts of

    technically “recoverable” — as if recovering some-thing lost — shale gas and tight oil into production

    would require drilling and fracking over 630,000 new

    onshore wells.5 If this happens, many thousands of

    the wells envisioned are likely to have cementing and

    casing issues from the outset, and all of them will age

    and degrade over subsequent years and decades,

    putting at risk underground sources of drinking

    water.6 Given that initial fractures release just a small

    fraction of the oil or gas held in targeted source rocks,

    industry will also seek to re-fracture many thousands

    of these wells to try to reverse the typically rapid

    declines in production as they age.7 

    A 2013 analysis from the Wall Street Journal  found that

    over 15 million Americans are living within one and a

    half kilometers of a well drilled after the year 2000,

    when large-scale hydraulic fracturing operations

    began.8 Many more live alongside other polluting

    infrastructure that supports oil and gas production,

    including processing plants, compressor stations

    passed actions in opposition to drilling, fracking and

    supporting infrastructure.9

    Oil and gas companies have piled up over $100 billionin debt, in large part to support drilling and fracking

    and related infrastructure.10 Data from the major

    publicly listed oil and gas companies show that from

    2008 to 2012, collective capital spending increased by

    about 32 percent, while, at the same time, oil produc-

    tion fell by about 9 percent.11 Evidently the industry

    is banking that increased drilling and fracking into

    the future, coupled with increased oil and natural gas

    that oil and gas prices rise.12 Industry’s bubble will

    burst, not least because society’s systematic depen-

    dence on fossil fuels is posing an existential threat by

    destabilizing our climate.13

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    4  Food & Water Europe

    oil and gas. These impacs are due in large par o he

    oxic naure and pervasive spread o he chemical pollu-

    ans ha he indusry brings o he surace. (See Box

    2.) Recen research urher reveals how hese and oher

    impacs collecively damage public healh and disrup

    communiies.

    Pu simply, widespread drilling and racking or oil and

    gas is inherenly unsae and erribly shorsighed. Thisrepor explains why i is ime or a ban. The oil and

    gas indusry’s corruping inluence on American policy

    and governmen hreaens o coninue he harm, and

    o coninue o supplan proven and sae soluions or

    meeing energy needs.

    Water and Land ImpactsThe oil and gas indusry’s capure o U.S. energy policy

    has colored several high-proile invesigaions o aquier

    conaminaion in he afermah o drilling and racking,

    namely in Pavillion, Wyoming, in Dimock, Pennsylvania,

    and in Parker Couny, Texas.

    The pollutants that the oil and gas industry brings to the surface

    “Natural gas,” “natural gas liquids,” “crude oil,” “drilling muds” and “produced water” are innocuous-sounding terms

    that conceal the nature of all that the oil and gas industry brings to the surface.

    of hydrocarbons is called crude oil when the bulk of the hydrogen and carbon atoms that make up the mix are

    bound together in large molecules, and the mix is liquid when it reaches the surface.23 The term natural gas liquids

    2

    6),

    3

    8

    4

    10) and other lightweight hydrocarbon chains — that happen to be somewhat wet to

    the touch at moderate temperatures and pressures.24 The term natural gas is used broadly to refer to various gases

    4),25 a potent greenhouse gas26 and a primary driver of global warming.27 

    But drilling and fracking brings much more to the surface than just these hydrocarbons.

    the chemical compositions vary in time and vary from well to well, but are otherwise not well characterized.28 

    Many of the hydrocarbons brought to the surface are hazardous pollutants, including volatile organic compounds

    aromatic hydrocarbons.29 

    with ancient salt waters, or brines.30 

    sodium”31 32), and radioactive material

    33 

    Finally, oil and gas companies bring to the surface various amounts of the chemicals used in fracking, and byproducts

    from reactions involving these chemicals.34 Given trade-secret protections in federal and state laws, and otherwise

    often even to the company doing the injecting.35 

    36 

    inducing new fractures.37

    With the exception of the fracking chemicals and the byproducts of any fracking

    chemical reactions, all of the above chemical pollutants had long been safely

    sequestered and immobilized, deep underground. Now, drilling and fracking

    brings these pollutants to the surface at baseline levels that risk human health

    and environmental damage through water, soil, air and climate pollution. Then

    there are the greater-than-baseline levels of contamination: the accidents, leaks,

    dangerous to clean up, to the extent that they can be cleaned up.

    The liquids, sludge and solids that remain from what the industry does not leak into

    the air, spill on the ground, burn or otherwise use, are adding up to create waste

    disposal problems. This pollution is part and parcel of the current “all-of-the-above”

    approach to U.S. energy policy. All of the above pollutants need to stay underground.

    “Mud pit” on a Bakken shaledrilling site.

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  5

    In December 2011, he U.S. Environmenal Proecion

    Agency (EPA) published a draf scieniic repor on

    groundwaer conaminaion in Pavillion, Wyoming,

    saing ha wase pis likely conaminaed shallow

    groundwaer38 and ha daa on chemicals deeced in

    a deeper monioring well “indicaes likely impac o

    ground waer ha can be explained by hydraulic rac-

    uring.”39 The draf repor called or more monioring

    o wells o make he indings o he repor more deini-

    ive.40 In he ace o exreme pressure rom he indusry

    and rom indusry advocaes in Congress, however, he

    EPA decided in 2013 o abandon inalizing he repor.41 

    Insead, he EPA deerred i o he Sae o Wyoming,

    which will rely on he company implicaed in he case o

    und a new invesigaion.42 While he EPA claims ha i

    sill “sands behind is work and daa,”43 he rerea was

    widely repored as a vicory or he indusry.44 

    In 2012, he EPA similarly rereaed rom is invesiga-

    ion o waer conaminaion cases in Dimock, Penn-sylvania,45 which he sae’s environmenal agency had

    deermined were due o “drilling aciviies.”46 The EPA

    had ound conaminans in several o he waer wells

    in quesion, bu simply saed ha “he residens have

    now or will have heir own reamen sysems ha can

    reduce concenraions o hose hazardous subsances o

    accepable levels a he ap.”47 The EPA ailed o evaluae

    he reasons or he conaminaion, again leaving he

    public wih he alse impression ha affeced residens’

    claims o conaminaion had no meri.48

    In December 2014, he EPA will issue a draf o a muli-

    year sudy on he poenial impacs o racking on

    drinking waer resources. In his sudy, he agency is

    relying heavily on volunary cooperaion rom he oil

    and gas indusry or daa and experise. This reliance on

    indusry parly explains he EPA’s rerea on he hird

    high-proile case o conaminaion linked o drilling and

    racking, in Parker Couny, Texas.49 According o he EPA’s

    Inspecor General, a primary reason ha he agency

    wihdrew is emergency order agains he company doinghe drilling and racking was ha he company agreed

    o paricipae in he EPA’s ongoing sudy.50 This episode,

    in paricular, highlighs how he indusry’s conrol over

    daa and experise shapes he science and invesigaions

    carried ou on behal o he public.

    The residens o Parker Couny, Dimock and Pavil-

    lion wen o he EPA because hey did no eel ha

    heir respecive saes were being responsive o heir

    concerns. Texas, Pennsylvania and Wyoming each have

    long hisories o promoing oil and gas developmen, in

    he name o prevening “wase” o oil and gas reserves,51 

    and are pary o inersae resoluions o encourage

    shale gas exracion and “expansion o naural gas

    inrasrucure.”52 The EPA’s unwillingness o complee

    invesigaions o hese hree landmark cases o drinking

    waer conaminaion means ha he affeced residens

    have nowhere else o urn.

    Generally, he risks and impacs o waer resources

    include he indusry’s compeiion or waer, land and

    surace waer polluion, and aquier conaminaion.53 

    Water consumptionAffordable access o clean waer is a public healh issue,

    and a human righ. Public waer sysems already ace

    major challenges ha will be exacerbaed by global

    warming, in he orm o locally severe droughs, exreme

    sorms and oherwise alered rainall, snowall andsnowmel paterns.54 Over a cenury o climae polluion

    semming rom he oil and gas indusry conribues

    signiicanly o his warming.55 

    Now, wih widespread drilling and racking, he oil and

    gas indusry is no jus adding more climae polluion, i is

    adding signiican demand or resh waer in already waer-

    sressed regions o he counry. Even worse, i is leaving a

    legacy o waer polluion and landscape disurbance.

    Waer use per well varies by region, bu companiesypically require abou 20 million liers o waer o drill

    and rack a single shale gas or igh oil well.56 Some hori-

    zonal wells in he Eagle Ford shale play in Texas have

    been racked wih more han 49 million liers each.57 

    Esimaes vary as o how much injeced luid reurns,

    rom beween 5 and 50 percen.58 In he Marcellus

    region, beween he irs sage o racking and he ime

    he new well is pu ino producion, he liquid ha lows

    up he well amouns o only abou 5 percen o he

    volume injeced.59 Thus, almos all o he waer used in

    racking luids is no available or reuse, and is under-ground indeiniely.

    Land is cleared for drilling and fracking in Pennsylvania.

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    6  Food & Water Europe

    Oil and gas advocaes claim ha heir waer use is low

    relaive o overall waer use, bu saisics ha average

    over large regions are decepive. Fracking’s use o waer

    can be inensive, happening all in a local hospo or

    drilling and racking and all a once or each new well.

    Cold-waer sreams in norhern Pennsylvania, where

    Marcellus shale developmen is concenraed, have

    relaively small low raes,60 ye wihdrawals or rackinghave been primarily rom surace waers, wih wih-

    drawals rom public waer sysems indusry’s second

    choice.61 Regulaors anicipae increased use o ground-

    waer in he region over he coming years i he pace o

    drilling and racking coninues.62

    A 2014 repor by Ceres looked a indusry-repored

    daa on 39,294 oil and gas wells racked beween

     January 2011 and May 2013, and deermined ha 39

    percen were in regions wih “high waer sress” and

    8 percen were in regions wih “exremely high waersress.”63 Waer sress is a measure o waer compei-

    ion in a region, and regions wih “high waer sress”

    are hose where oal waer wihdrawals (no jus or

    racking) make up 40 o 80 percen o he oal waer

    available or wihdrawal, while “exremely high waer

    sress” means ha more han 80 percen o available

    waer is being wihdrawn.64 The repor also deermined

    ha over 36 percen o he oil and gas wells included in

    he sudy were in regions ha will “experience ground-

    waer depleion.”65 

    To rack he Barnet Shale in Texas, oil and gas compa-

    nies used groundwaer and surace waer in equal

    measure unil 2006, and increased he use o surace

    waer o abou 70 o 80 percen o oal waer use rom

    2007 o 2010, bu have since increased groundwaer

    wihdrawals.66 The groundwaer wihdrawals are

    primarily rom he Triniy aquier, which is “among he

    mos depleed aquiers in he sae.”67 

    A paricular concern is he exen o which oil and gas

    companies are compeing wih armers or access o

    limied reshwaer resources. In 2012, a a Colorado

    aucion o waer righs, oil and gas companies were

    he op bidders, driving up waer prices or he sae’sarmers, many o which were enduring severe drough

    condiions.68 In New Mexico, some armers affeced by

    severe drough condiions are, in lieu o arming, selling

    heir righs o irrigaion waer o oil and gas companies.69 

    This compeiion wih, or ourigh displacemen o,

    agriculural waer use will only increase i unconven-

    ional oil and gas developmen coninues o expand in

    counies ha already ace waer sress, and ha are

    likely o experience even larger waer supply problems

    as a consequence o climae change.

    Impacts on surface waters,

     forests and soilsThe consrucion o new well sies and supporing

    inrasrucure are jus he irs sage in he indusry’s

    harm o surace waers, oress and soils. Each Marcellus

    Shale gas well pad sis on abou hree acres o cleared

    land, and or each sie anoher six acres is cleared o

    build supporing access roads, pipelines and oher

    ossil uel inrasrucure.

    70

     The indusry’s consrucionprojecs increase he amoun o sedimen ha lows

    ino rivers and sreams, causing ecological harm ha is

    compounded by excessive waer wihdrawals.71

    Foress and agriculural lands provide waershed-scale

    ilraion as rainwaer and snowmel low ino rivers

    and recharge aquiers.72 Widespread shale developmen

    in he Marcellus region is expeced o cover hundreds

    o housands o acres wih suraces ha are impervious

    o rains, signiicanly disruping his ilraion.73 New

    indusry sies, pipelines and roads also expose more

    ores o more clearing, changing he balance o wild-

    lie, harming ores healh and hus urher affecing

    waersheds and groundwaer recharge.74 Air polluans,

    including ozone, can also harm oress and agriculural

    lands ha are downwind o oil and gas operaions.75

    Waer qualiy in rivers, sreams and shallow aquiers,

    and soil qualiy on agriculural lands, are urher hrea-

    ened by spills o racking chemicals and o oxic oil and

    gas indusry wases, as well as by inenional spreading

    o he wases, or example, o de-ice roads given he

    sals in he wases.76 A recen sudy near acive drilling

    Water tanks lined up in preparation for fracking.

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  7

    and racking operaions in Colorado ound elevaed

    levels o known and suspeced endocrine disrupors in

    surace waers and shallow groundwaers, consisen

    wih wha would be expeced rom spills o he chemi-

    cals used by he indusry in racking luids.77

    The oil and gas indusry’s wases — primarily he

    lefovers o wha’s brough o he surace — conain

    corrosive sals, radioacive maerial, oxic meals, hydro-carbons, and racking chemicals, as oulined in Box 2

    (page 4). Each year housands o leaks, blowous and

    spills rom he oil and gas indusry involve hese wases,

    as well as various racking chemicals ye o be injeced,

    and/or produced oil and naural gas liquids. (See Box 3.)

    In a shining example o he oil and gas indusry’s

    capure o regulaory policy, he indusry’s hazardous

    wases rom drilling and racking are exemped rom

    ederal regulaions on hazardous wase, simply by virue

    o having been generaed by he oil and gas indusry.78

     Iwases wih similar characerisics were o be generaed

    by anoher indusry, hey would be deemed hazardous.79

    The liquid wases ha do no ge spilled are ypically

    sen o indusrial reamen aciliies, processed or

    reuse or injeced back underground ino disposal wells.87 

    In Pennsylvania, abou hal o he lowback wase is

    sen o indusrial reamen aciliies, abou one hird

    is reused and increasing amouns are injeced back

    underground ino disposal wells, commonly afer being

    sen o Ohio or Wes Virginia.88

     In Texas, Oklahomaand Norh Dakoa, he dominan pracice is o dispose

    o liquid wases by injecing hem back underground.89 

    In Caliornia, regulaors have recenly haled he wase

    injecions a numerous wells ou o concern ha he

    wases are being injeced direcly ino aquiers.90 

    Treamen a indusrial wase aciliies is imperec,

    allowing conaminans o low hrough ino rivers and

    sreams. In 2013, scieniss repored ess on sedimen

    rom he bed o Blacklick Creek, in Pennsylvania, a he

    poin where effluen lowed ino he creek rom an indus-rial reamen plan wih a hisory o acceping oil and

    gas indusry wases.91 The sedimen conained grealy

    enhanced levels o radioacive maerial, wih radiaion

    a 200 imes he level ound in background sedimens.92 

    No only does his pu a risk hose who ea ish ha rely

    on he ood chain rom his sream, bu i illusraes ha

    reamen is no necessarily effecive. Baseline levels o

    polluion, wih some larger polluion evens, are inheren

    o drilling and racking or oil and gas.

    To he exen ha reamen is effecive, i concenraes

    he conaminans and hus generaes solid wase. Toxic

    hydrocarbons, heavy meals and radioacive maerial

    also become concenraed in sludge a he botoms

    o wase pis and in sludge and scale deposis wihin

    equipmen, such as wihin pipes and anks.93 Radia-

    ion rom hese concenraed wases, or rom he rock

    cutings brough o he surace during drilling, is setingoff deecors a he gaes o landills.94 Massive quani-

    ies o low-level radioacive wases pass hrough hese

    deecors, wheher operaional or no, and ge dumped

    in landills,95 i hey are no irs spilled beside a road on

    he way o a landill.96 The indusry’s radioacive solid

    wases are also being illegally dumped.97 

    Under a previous governor, Norh Carolina’s Depar-

    men o Environmen and Naural Resources warned

    ha layers o cutings could resul in plugging o he

    landill and o evenual spills o luid, known as landill

     Accidents and spillsare business as usual 

    In 2008, ProPublica examined local and state govern-

    than 1,000 cases of leaks and spills at oil and gas

    industry sites.

    80

     According to the Denver Post , theoil and gas industry has reported about 2,500 spills

    6 percent having contaminated surface water and

    17 percent having contaminated groundwater.81 In

    North Dakota in 2011, the oil and gas industry also

    reported over 1,000 spills.82 An analysis by Energy &

    Environment  looked at available data and counted

    over 6,000 “spills and other mishaps” in 2012 alone

    from oil and gas industry operations throughout

    the United States, and found that the incidents

    83 A subsequent analysis found

    “at least 7,662 spills, blowouts, leaks and othermishaps in 2013 in 15 top states for onshore oil and

    gas activity.”84 In Pennsylvania, the Department of

    Environmental Protection has recorded 209 incidents

    in which the oil and gas industry either contaminated

    85 

    All of these estimates are conservative, given that

    that actually get reported. Indeed, some mishaps are

    -

    neering, completed in May 2014 at Louisiana State

    University, explains that underground blowouts may just appear to occur less frequently than those that

    underground.86

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    8  Food & Water Europe

    leachae, ha is enriched wih diverse conaminans,

    including he radioacive maerial.98 Given ha he hal-

    lie o radium-226 is 1,600 years, such spills would ain

    he surrounding soil and waershed or cenuries.

    99

     Surace-waer conaminaion also resuls when

    convenional wasewaer reamen aciliies ha are

    no equipped o rea racking wasewaer noneheless

    receive i. The conaminans can pass righ hrough

    hese aciliies and be discharged ino rivers, causing

    problems or waer sysems downsream, as well as

    or aquaic lie.100 When downsream waer uiliies

    disinec river waer wih elevaed levels o chloride or

    bromide — wo sals ha characerize racking wase-

    waers101 — he resuling chemical reacions can orm

    harmul byproducs ha are linked o cancer and birh

    deecs and ye are difficul o remove once presen in

    drinking waer supplies.102

    Raher han simply no allow surace disposal, he EPA

    is drafing rules ha would require “pre-reamen” o

    shale gas wasewaers beore hese wases could be sen

    o convenional reamen aciliies ha serve public

    waer sysems.103 And since racking is also occurring in

    non-shale ormaions, guidelines or only shale orma-

    ions are inadequae. However, as is he case wih

    rounds o wasewaer recycling and indusrial reamen,

    his sole pre-reamen concenraes he oxins, creaing

    new disposal problems.

     Aquifer contaminationIn addiion o conaminaing armland and waersheds,104

    plumes rom leaks and spills o liquids a he surace can

    seep down ino soil and can conaminae shallow aquiers,

    as a signiican racion o spills have done in Colorado.105 

    Bu aquiers also ace unseen hreas rom below, boh

    immediae and over he long erm.

    Disproporionaely high levels o arsenic, as well as

    sronium, selenium and barium, have been ideniied in

    groundwaer in areas o he Barnet Shale region in Texas

    ha have seen more oil and gas aciviy.106 The presence

    o hese conaminans was believed o be due o heir

    increased mobiliy, as a consequence o eiher nearby

    waer wihdrawals or mechanical disurbances, such as

    vibraions inroduced during drilling and racking.107 

    In a handul o incidens, oil and gas companies have

    injeced racking luids or oil and gas indusry wases

    very close o, i no direcly ino, underground sources o

    drinking waer.108 Beyond hese cases o direc conami-

    naion, a nework o differen pahways can allow

    conaminans o indirecly seep ino and conaminae

    groundwaer rom below, in he afermah o drilling and

    racking.109 The pahways include new racures creaed

    by hydraulic racuring, exising naural racures and

    auls, and openings along wells wih compromised

    consrucion, or inegriy.110 

    Methane and other hydrocarbon gases

    A sudy published in 2000 esimaed ha ens o

    housands o oil and gas wells in Norh America were

    leaking gas, including ino he amosphere and ino

    shallow aquiers.111 

    In 2011, scieniss observed ha mehane concenra-

    ions in samples rom waer wells locaed in regions o

    acive Marcellus and Uica shale gas developmen were

    17 imes higher, on average, compared o samples romwaer wells in regions wihou drilling and racking

    aciviy.112 The auhors concluded ha “leaky well

    casings” were he mos likely cause.113 In 2013, several

    o he same scieniss sudied 141 wells in Pennsylvania

    and ound higher mehane concenraions — by a acor

    o six on average — in waer wells locaed less han

    abou 3,200 ee (i.e., 1 kilomeer) rom a naural gas

    well, compared o waer wells locaed arher away rom

    any naural gas well.114 

    While mehane isel may no be oxic, is presence inaquiers indicaes he presence o oher hydrocarbons

    ha are oxic. (See Box 2, page 4.) When a mix o

    hydrocarbon gas eners unvenilaed spaces hrough

    conaminaed waer wells, i can cause suffocaion and

    even resul in explosions.115 Mehane ha conaminaes

    aquiers may also, hrough geochemical reacions or

    oher mechanisms, increase levels o arsenic and oher

    harmul oxins in waer brough o he surace.116 

    Ulimaely, he mehane and oher hydrocarbons may

    or may no originae rom he rock ormaion beingargeed, bu he resul is he same: he mehane and

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  9

    oher hydrocarbons are presen a increased levels as

    a consequence o drilling and racking. There are many

    well-sudied reasons why, and he scale o he problem

    derives rom he scale o widespread drilling.

    Abou 2.6 million onshore oil and gas wells have been

    drilled in he Unied Saes since 1949,117 and abou 1.1

    million o hese are acively producing.118 More han

    20 years ago, he EPA esimaed ha abou 200,000 ohe over 1 million abandoned oil and gas wells in he

    counry were inadequaely plugged, meaning ha hey

    provide pahways or hydrocarbon gases, i no oher

    luids, o low up o he surace or o underground

    sources o drinking waer.119

    Addiionally, over 30,000 wells have been drilled or he

    purpose o disposing o oil and gas indusry wases, via

    injecion.120 A gray area lies in how he indusry akes

    brines brough o he surace and hen pumps hem

    back underground ino wells o improve he low o oilou o adjacen wells; here are more han 110,000 o

    hese injecion wells or “enhanced oil recovery.”121

    Consruced o concree and seel, all o he above

    wells age and degrade over ime.122 Moreover, rom

    he beginning o heir consrucion, a signiican rac-

    ion o oil and gas wells — several percen — have

    well inegriy problems, meaning ha injeced luids,

    hydrocarbons and ancien brines may no be conained

    wihin he inner ubing, or casing, o he well.123 Once

    ouside o his casing, hese conaminans give rise opolluion when hey escape o he surace or move ino

    underground sources o drinking waer ha were drilled

    hrough in order o consruc a well.124 

    Due o a variey o reasons, including cemen shrinkage

    and/or poor bonding, space can orm beween he ouer

    shell o cemen and he various rock ormaions hrough

    which an oil and gas well passes, creaing a pahway or

    he poenial low o conaminans.125 

    A PhD hesis in peroleum engineering, compleed in

    May 2014, explains ha highly pressurized luids duringhydraulic racuring can direcly cause such separaion,

    resuling in “underground blowous” — evens in which

    racking luids ravel back along he pah o he well

    beween he concree and he rock ormaion, raher han

    ino he argeed ormaion.126 Compared o blowous ha

    spew luids ino he air a well sies, hese blowous are

    more difficul o deec, or obvious reasons.127 

    Fluids may also leak rom oil and gas wells hrough small

    racures or channels ha orm wihin he inerior o

    he consruced well, eiher wihin he cemen isel or

    beween concenric cylinders o cemen and meal pipe,

    or casing, used o build he well.128 Improper cenering o

    casings gives rise o less uniorm lows o cemen during

    he consrucion o he well, and his in urn is anoher

    acor ha increases he risk o well inegriy ailures.129 

    Gradual setling over ime due o he exracion o oil

    and gas also applies sress ha may evenually break, or

    crack, consruced wells, leading o ailure.130 

    As he many differen mechanisms o well ailure sugges,

    he problem o leaky wells, and ourigh well ailure, is

    he opic o a large number o sudies by indusry and

    academic scieniss. The botom line, however, is ha

    many oil and gas wells leak, and ha he causes o leaks

    are difficul o deec and ix, given ha hey occur or

    so many differen reasons, subjec o diverse geological

    condiions and o diverse indusry pracices.

    A major concern is ha, as a given year’s newly drilled

    and racked wells decline in producion and degradephysically, he percenage ha develop inegriy prob-

    lems is likely o increase over ime.131 Ye daa on he inci-

    dence o well inegriy problems as wells age are severely

    limied, no leas because shale gas and igh oil wells are

    relaively new. A 2003 sudy looked a ederal daa on he

    over 10,000 wells drilled ino he ouer coninenal shel

    o he Gul o Mexico a he ime, and ound ha more

    han 40 percen o hose ha were over 10 years old

    displayed “susained casing pressure,” meaning ha he

    wells were no conaining hydrocarbon gas wihin he

    inner ubing, or casing, used o channel hydrocarbons upor producion.132 

     A well head after fracking equipment has beenremoved from the drilling site.

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    Now, according o a 2014 sudy, iniial daa on shale

    gas well inegriy in Pennsylvania do no bode well or

    he uure.133 In he Marcellus Shale region o Pennsyl-

    vania, shale gas wells have proven o be more prone

    o well consrucion “impairmens” linked o well

    inegriy problems, compared o convenional wells,

    especially in he norheasern par o he sae, where

    over 9 percen o shale gas wells have indicaions o

    compromised well inegriy.134 

    Conaminaion o aquiers rom mehane and oher hydro-

    carbon gases alone warrans precauion over widespread

    drilling and racking. However, anoher major concern is

    ha “evidence o sray gas conaminaion could be indica-

    ive o uure waer qualiy degradaion, similar o ha

    observed in some convenional oil and gas ields.”135 One

    reason is ha such conaminaion could be a harbinger o

    conaminaion rom he migraion o oher luids, no jus

    he relaively buoyan hydrocarbon gases.136

    Hydrocarbon gases in aquifers

    as a sign of more problems to come

    I oil and gas companies drill and rack he hundreds

    o housands o new shale gas and igh oil wells envi-

    sioned, he legacy o aging, degrading and increasingly

    compromised wells will grow subsanially. This legacy

    may lead o long-erm, region-wide changes in how

    luids mix and move underground over he coming

    years and decades. How hese changes migh impac

    he qualiy o underground sources o drinking waer

    remains unknown, highlighing he enormous risks

    inheren o widespread drilling and racking.

    Aquiers are immediaely pu a risk when he leading

    edge o injeced racking luid propagaes new rac-

    ures arher han anicipaed, reaching nearby oil andgas wells, or injecion wells ha have compromised

    cemening and casing.137 These “rack his,” or so-called

    well-o-well communicaion evens, someimes give rise

    o surace spills,138 and hey are occurring or a leas

    wo reasons. Firs, predicing he acual lengh o rac-

    ures is a nooriously difficul mahemaical problem,

    sensiive o parameers ha are speciic o he geology

    surrounding each individual well, and his sensiiviy

    leads o some racures propagaing arher han

    expeced.139 Second, he locaions and dephs o many

    housands o he more han 1 million abandoned oil andgas wells in he Unied Saes are no known.140 

    The issue o rack his is oreshadowed in regulaions

    se orh by he EPA under he Sae Drinking Waer Ac,

    and exposes a complicaed sory abou he oil and gas

    indusry’s capure o U.S. regulaory policy. (See Box 4,

    page 11.)

    In addiion o he immediae risks o conaminaion

    rom rack his, he incidens clearly illusrae how wide-

    spread drilling and racking can change he conneciviyo a nework o conaminaion pahways on a regional

    scale. Several recen sudies have begun o approach he

    larger concerns abou long-erm impacs on a regional

    scale, highlighing he severely limied scieniic under-

    sanding o he issue, and underscoring he simple-

    mindedness o he curren regulaory approach o oil

    and gas indusry injecions. (See Box 4.)

    A 2012 sudy used a simpliied mahemaical model o

    explore how preerenial pahways or luid low, such as

    auls and naural racures, can inluence he ime scale

    in which injeced conaminans migh reach under-

    ground sources o drinking waer under a wors-case

    scenario.163 The model suggesed ha slow conamina-

    ion could occur wihin a decade.164 A second 2012 sudy

    ound evidence o a mach beween he geochemical

    proile o saliniy in shallow groundwaer in norheas

    Pennsylvania and ha o Marcellus brine, suggesing

    a “preexising nework” o pahways (i.e., unrelaed

    o racking) beween he Marcellus Shale and shallow

    groundwaer.165 In 2014, anoher sudy demonsraed a

    way o reduce he complexiy o modeling he slow lowo conaminans hrough naural auls,166 wih an aim

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  11

    Oil and gas industry injectionsUnder authority from the Safe Drinking Water Act, the U.S. EPA’s

    141 In 1989, the U.S.

    sources of drinking water via nearby abandoned wells that had

    integrity problems.142 These were frack hits, without the fractures.

    143 

    operations, in 1949.144

    that would require addressing the issue of frack hits, were it not for

    this loophole.145 The loophole thus explains how the issue of frack

    hits has remained beyond regulation, and highlights how the oil and

    gas industry, through its capture of U.S. energy policy, has erected

    barriers to protecting public health and the environment.

    -

    tory safeguards are triggered.146 

    simplest option being to just use a circle with a 400 metre radius.147 Alternatively, applicants for permits can use a

    an AoR.148 

    149

    In 2004, a panel of exper ts convened by the EPA noted that these options were “adopted even though much existing

    source of drinking water] and actual injection rate).”150 

    AoR is based on operational assumptions made in the early 1980s,”151 and concluded that “enough evidence exists

    sources of drinking water]... .”152 

    The EPA, despite these strong statements, has kept the simplistic protections in place, having deferred action

    experts that data show that the 400 meter approach is inadequate.153 

    of interest.

    Most of these state agencies, as regulators of oil and gas development in their respective states, are party to the

    154 so as to prevent “physical waste of oil or gas or loss in

    the ultimate recovery thereof.”155 

    FracFocus.org, which has created a platform for the oil and gas industry that gives the illusion of transparency.156 

    This episode illustrates how longstanding alignments between the oil and gas industry and state governments

    (continued on page 12)

    Fluid awaits injection at a fracking site.

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    oward modeling ha approaches a regional scale.167 

    This effor o incorporae numerous wells and auls

    a a regional scale is preliminary, based on simpliying

    assumpions abou he geomery and parameers ha

    conrol low hrough hese conaminaion pahways.168

    The EPA, as par o is muli-year sudy o he

    poenial impacs o hydraulic racuring on drinking

    waer resources, has conraced researchers o modela handul o simplisic conaminaion scenarios.169 

    However, he preliminary models are ar rom being

    employed o predic and poenially reduce he likeli-

    hood o uure conaminaion evens semming rom a

    single racked well, much less o address he prospec

    o conaminaion on a regional scale ha communiies

    wih widespread drilling and racking may ace.170

    A he same ime, he oil and gas indusry’s capure o

    U.S. energy policy is also on display in he resuls o

    he conraced research. The scieniss modeling heconaminaion scenarios or he EPA view using heir

    novel compuaional mehods o invesigae he likeli-

    hood o conaminaion as somewha o a side noe,

    and pu equal i no greaer emphasis on he poenial

    uure use o heir mehods o increase he producion o

    hydrocarbons rom hydraulically racured wells.171 

    The EPA’s recen guidance on he use o diesel uels

    in racking luids merely noes ha modeling o acu-

    ally calculae he poenial exen o he migraion o

    injeced luids “ofen requires a signiican body odaa.”172 This saemen is a reerence o he ac ha

    acually deermining when and where conaminaion

    evens are likely o occur requires deailed inormaion

    ha is speciic o he geology surrounding individual

    wells across a region, including he presence o nearby

    naural auls and racures, induced racures rom

    racking, and compromised wells. Ye his inormaion

    is no always available.

    Acually deermining when and where conaminaion

    evens are likely o occur would also require knowledgeo he parameers ha conrol low hrough hese poen-

    ially conneced pahways, over long periods o ime.

    These parameers are highly uncerain, and vary by

    locaion. Ye he oupus o he models are likely sensi-

    ive o he parameers used, and o he assumpions ha

    hese parameers embody. For example, assuming ha

    here is no naural aul providing a poenial pahway

    or conaminaion, when in ac here is one, unda-

    menally changes he model. The resul is ha crucial

    inormaion o ensure proecion is no available.

    compromise between the industry and regula-

    approach) or, alternatively, on an overly simplistic

    calculation using a decades-old mathematical

    formula that is divorced from modern geological

    understanding and modern computational science.

    With wells now tunneling horizontally more than

    three kilometers through rock formations and

    being hydraulically fractured in tens of stages, and

    — with or without diesel — injected at each stage,

    much has changed since the “operational assump-

    tions made in the 1980s” that led to the AoR criteria.

    Yet fracking injections that do not contain diesel

    protections of the standard AoR approach, thanks

    fracking injections that do involve diesel fuels have

    disclosure of whether or not companies are using

    -

    atic. The Environmental Integrity Project revealed

    that many companies had edited their previous

    submissions to FracFocus.org, thereby rewriting

    history and concealing their use of diesel fuels in

    157

    158 

    While the guidance acknowledges that the simplistic

    assumptions for the formula approach do not apply,it merely recommends that regulators use one of

    approach.159 The guidance is most remarkable in

    that it still does not draw on decades of progress

    in the mathematical and computational sciences,

    emphasizing only that such modeling “often

    160 Moreover,

    the guidance does not mention the modeling

    ongoing study of contamination pathways related to

    hydraulic fracturing.

    In June 2014, in unspoken disapproval of the EPA’s

    guidance on diesel fuels, a GAO report pointed to

    “new” risks to underground sources of drinking

    water presented by hydraulic fracturing with diesel

    a panel of experts to review the risks.161 The

    report also notes that the surge in the volume and

    -

    tions are “overpressurizing” rock formations, leading

    to surface spills162 — events that are akin to the

    surface spills from frack hits.

    (“Oil and gas industry injections”

    continued from page 11)

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  13

    As one ederal scienis old journaliss a ProPublica ,

    “[]here is no cerainy a all in any o his … You have

    changed he sysem wih pressure and emperaure and

    racuring, so you don’ know how i will behave.”173 The

    uncerainy over how he hydrogeological sysem will

    respond raises he specer o long-erm aquier conami-

    naion as a icking ime bomb, wih grave implicaions

    or waer availabiliy, and or local economies, across he

    counry. This risk is simply unaccepable.

    Earthquakes, Lightning Strikesand Exploding TrainsScieniss now believe ha, by pumping large amouns

    o luids underground, he oil and gas indusry

    is largely o blame or he signiicanly increased

    requency o earhquakes observed in he Unied

    Saes in recen years.174 For decades, he cenral and

    easern Unied Saes consisenly regisered abou 20

    magniude 3.0 or greaer earhquakes per year.  175 In hemid-2000s, his rend broke, and earhquake requency

    increased, direcly coinciding wih he expansion

    o modern drilling and racking.176 In 2010, 2011 and

    2012 combined, here were abou 300 earhquakes o

    magniude 3.0 or greaer.177 In jus he irs hal o 2014,

    Oklahoma alone regisered abou 200 magniude 3.0 or

    greaer earhquakes.178

    In a handul o cases, he evidence suggess ha he

    speciic process o hydraulic racuring has also induced

    earhquakes, mos recenly in Ohio.179 Mos o he oiland gas indusry earhquakes, however, are evidenly

    occurring when high-volume wases ha are injeced

    ino UIC Class II wells lubricae auls, or increase pres-

    sure beyond he srengh o inersecing auls.180 A 2014

    sudy has repored evidence ha injecion o oil and

    gas indusry wases is riggering earhquakes cenered

    up o over 20 miles away rom he injecion well, in par

    because o “modern, very high-rae injecion wells.”181 

    A magniude 4.7 earhquake was among he swarm o

    1,000 smaller earhquakes all measured in Greenbrier,Arkansas, in 2010 and 2011, again atribued o injecions

    o wases.182 Among he oil and gas indusry earh-

    quakes ha have shaken Oklahoma, none was larger

    han he magniude 5.7 earhquake in 2011 ha sruck

    Prague, Oklahoma, resuling in injuries o wo people

    and he desrucion o 14 homes.183 Now, a 2013 sudy

    has suggesed ha large remoe earhquakes — ar rom

    he Unied Saes — may acually be riggering earh-

    quakes wihin he Unied Saes, including he magni-

    ude 5.7 earhquake ha hi Prague, Oklahoma.184 Tha

    is, oil and gas indusry injecions appear o be bringing

    auls o near-criical hresholds, and hen seismic waves

    rom large bu remoe earhquakes can hen rigger he

    movemen o hese auls.185

    Ideniying when and where criical hresholds are

    nearly reached requires monioring ha can only be

    done remoely, and hus imprecisely, given ha auls

    are buried deep underground. This phenomenon o

    criical hresholds being remoely riggered emphasizes

    he large uncerainies ha cloud he quesion o when

    and where he nex oil and gas indusry earhquake will

    srike. Jus how srong and poenially desrucive and

    cosly he indusry’s earhquakes migh become also

    remains an open quesion.

    In some cases, he luids injeced by he oil and gas

    indusry have evidenly enered and acivaed previously

    unknown auls.186 The ac ha here are unknown

    auls urher highlighs undamenal limiaions o

    undersanding, and predicing, when and where he

    nex oil and gas indusry earhquake will occur. This ac

    likewise highlighs ha assumpions abou he nework

    o waer conaminaion pahways wihin a neighborhood

    o a given injecion well can change.

    More generally, he seismic waves ha make up earh-

    quakes — wheher unleashed naurally or induced by

    he oil and gas indusry’s injecions — may exacerbae

    he problem o leaky oil and gas indusry wells. The

    seismic waves pass hrough a differen dephs a

    differen speeds, owing o differences in he densiy (and

    Residential damage from the magnitude 5.7 earthquake in 2011

    that struck Prague, Oklahoma.

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    14  Food & Water Europe

    elasiciy) o he underlying layers o rock ormaions

    peneraed by an oil and gas well. As a consequence,

    seismic waves do no uniormly shake he consruced

    wells, resuling in physical sresses ha can only

    increase he likelihood o cemening or casing ailures.

    Oil and gas indusry earhquakes have aken many

    by surprise, bu scieniss have long known ha injec-

    ions (and wihdrawals) o luids beneah he suracecan induce earhquakes.187 Few, i anyone, however,

    anicipaed he recen incidens in Norh Dakoa in

    which anks holding oil and gas indusry wases have

    been sruck by lighning, resuling in explosions ha

    spilled conaminans ono surrounding lands and burned

    or days.188 The sorage anks are evidenly exploding

    because, in an effor o avoid corrosion, he meal anks

    are lined wih iberglass, which has much lower conduc-

    iviy han meal and hus overheas.189

    Trains carrying igh oil rom drilling and racking in heBakken region o Norh Dakoa are also exploding.190 

    The surge in igh oil producion in Norh Dakoa and

    Texas has led o a rapid expansion in he ranspor o

    oil by rain o reineries, in par because producion

    has oupaced pipeline consrucion.191 Energy Secreary

    Ernes Moniz has noed ha he oil indusry has acu-

    ally begun o preer ransporing oil by rain, or he

    lexibiliy i offers.192 However, several oil rain explo-

    sions — mos caasrophically in Lac-Méganic, Qebec,

    which desroyed several blocks o he own and killed 47

    people — have brough he so-called bomb rains o heoreron o public atenion.193

    The our high-proile explosions hus ar — in Qebec,

    Virginia, Alabama and Norh Dakoa — relec ha

    he oil conains relaively large amouns o naural gas

    liquids, which are highly explosive.194 The explosions also

    relec ha large quaniies — ofen more han 10 million

    liers per rain — are now being sen very long disances

    by rail o reineries, ypically abou 1600 kilomeers.195 

    The oil rain explosions have brough he issue o

    racking o regions ha are no acively argeed or

    racking, including Minnesoa, Washingon, D.C.,

    Alabama and he Paciic Norhwes.196 For example,

    abou 250 oil rain cars pass hough downown Seatle

    each day, and recenly several o hese cars deraileda low speed, wihou inciden, serving as a poenial

    wake-up call or he ciy.197 An analysis o planned

    projecs or expanding reinery capaciy in he region —

    ironically including he conversion o aciliies inended

    or renewable liquid uels — would add as many as 12

    one and a hal-kilomeer-long oil rains each day o he

    Norhwes railway sysem.198

    Taken ogeher, he earhquakes, lighning srikes and

    exploding rains are a reminder ha widespread drilling

    and racking now means many differen hings o hecommuniies ha are affeced in differen ways. Bu

    nohing affecs residens o hese communiies living

    alongside oil and gas indusry sies more viscerally han

    he oil and gas indusry’s air polluion, which lows

    along wih he indusry’s climae polluion.

    Air and Climate ImpactsIn essence, drilling and racking gives rise o hree

    differen sreams o polluans lowing ino he air: he

    clouds o silica dus rom mining or and managing he

    sand used in racking luids; he plumes o combusionbyproducs rom engines, lares and explosions; and he

    sream o polluans ha he oil and gas indusry boh

    brings o he surace and leaks ino he air.

    Compromises wih he indusry call or more monioring

    o beter undersand precisely wha he risks o oxic

    exposures are or everyone living alongside drilling and

    racking operaions, bu calls or prolonged monioring

    and more sudies jus guaranee urher polluion, and

    urher harm. Even assuming ha srong regulaion

    and oversigh can be pu in place, and ha negligence,accidens and explosions can be eliminaed, he baseline

    level o he indusry’s air and climae polluion will

    guaranee cerain harm o public healh and will lock

    in unaccepable climae risks. The indusry’s air and

    climae polluion is bes avoided alogeher wih a ban

    on racking.

    Silica dust Clouds o silica dus orm a well sies as sand is managed

    and prepared or mixing ino racking luid.199 Silica dus

    clouds also emanae rom silica mining and processing Aftermath of the Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, oil trainderailment in July 2013.

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  15

    sies. As wih he issue o exploding oil rains, silica sand

    mining has broadened he reach o racking’s impacs

    beyond regions argeed or shale gas and igh oil exrac-

    ion, wih large amouns o silica mined rom or processed

    in Wisconsin, Minnesoa, Illinois and Iowa.200 

    A recen review o he public healh impacs o drilling

    and racking summarizes ha “[r]espirable silica can

    cause silicosis and lung cancer and has been associ-

    aed wih uberculosis, chronic obsrucive pulmonary

    disease, kidney disease, and auoimmune disease.”201 

    The Naional Insiue o Occupaional Saey and

    Healh measured silica levels a 11 well sies, as silica

    sand was being managed, and ound ha exposures

    exceeded hresholds se o proec worker healh, in

    some cases by a acor o 10.202

     

    Residens living nearby operaions may also ace serious

    healh risks. “The breahing par o i isn’ good. You can

     jus eel i in your hroa, eel i in your nose,” explained

    an individual living across he sree rom a Wisconsin

    sand-washing plan.203 Bu he speciic consequences

    or hose living nearby sand mines and drilling sies

    remain unknown, and largely unsudied.204 A school in

    New Auburn, Wisconsin, siuaed near our silica sand

    mines, has ound silica on air ilers used in he school’s

    air sysem, suggesing ha low-level exposure in hecommuniy may be he norm.205

    Byproducts from combustionExhaus rom he diesel generaors and large rucks ha

    crowd well sies, and smoke rom laring a well sies,

    processing plans, and compressor saions, no o menion

    explosions, creae a second sream o oxic air emissions.

    Along wih carbon dioxide rom combusion, hese

    plumes conain variable amouns o hazardous

    air polluans, including nirogen dioxides, carbonmonoxide, pariculae mater, and volaile organic

    compounds (VOCs), such as he hydrocarbons benzene,

    oluene, ehylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) and various

    polycyclic aromaic hydrocarbons (PAHs).206

    Hundreds o heavy-duy ruck rips per well are

    required, largely o ranspor waer, chemicals, and

    equipmen, as well as he wases ha resul rom drilling

    and racking.207 Geting he indusry o conver o lees

    o rucks and generaors ha burn naural gas wouldlessen he air qualiy problems rom diesel exhaus, and

    he respiraory and cardiovascular healh problems asso-

    ciaed wih such exhaus,208 bu no wihou he ill effec

    o locking in demand or more drilling and racking.

    Smoke rom lares a well sies and processing plans adds

    o he baseline levels o engine exhaus in much less-

    deined ways, dependen on he efficiency o combusion

    and he makeup o he wase gases being burned. O

    course individual explosions are unoreseen, bu hey have

    become an expeced consequence o business as usual,and hey can lead o oxic smoke billowing or days.209

    The pollutants that oil and gascompanies bring to the surfaceThe hird sream o oil and gas indusry polluion orms

    ou o he plumes o well- or sie-speciic mixes o

    hydrocarbons and oher air and/or climae polluans,

    as discussed in Box 2 (page 4). These are he polluans

    ha come rom below ground, and ha are mobilized

    ino he air in he afermah o drilling and racking.

    Now, based on a handul o sudies in 2013 and 2014,

    i has become clear ha he oil and gas indusry emis

    more air and climae polluans han officials esimae.

    The air and climae polluans ha oil and gas compa-

    nies bring o he surace include: mehane and oher

    VOCs, such as he BTEX hydrocarbons and oher

    “aromaic” hydrocarbons, including PAHs; hydrogen

    sulide; radon derived rom radium presen in argeed

    rock ormaions; and any chemicals rom racking

    suspended in he air as vapor or aerosol, such as gluar-

    aldehyde, ehylene glycol and mehanol.210

    Varying amouns o hese polluans low rom a vas

    array o sources a successive sages wihin he indusry,

    including: during drilling, cemening and casing;

    immediaely afer racking luid injecion; rom sored

    wases; rom any accidens, spills and explosions; and

    rom inefficien lares and leaky valves, langes, seals,

    pneumaic devices, pipes and oher equipmen used o

    manage, process, compress and ranspor he payoff

    hydrocarbons — he crude oil, naural gas liquids and

    naural gas.211 

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    Again, mehane is a poen greenhouse gas and a

    primary driver o global warming.212 The BTEX air oxics

    irriae skin and can cause respiraory and nervous

    sysem problems wih shor-erm exposure, and can

    cause greaer harm wih long-erm exposure, including

    cancer.213 In he presence o sunligh, BTEX and oher

    VOCs also combine wih combusion byproducs o

    orm ozone, a respiraory irrian ha can prove aal or

    hose wih ashma.214 PAHs ha all on land and surace

    waers can accumulae in he ood chain, poenially

    resuling in harmul levels o exposure or humans

    who consume conaminaed ish.215 Hydrogen sulide

    is highly poisonous, and oil and gas indusry workers

    a well sies may be advised o wear personal moniors

    equipped wih alarms.216 

    The chemicals in racking luid, as well as largely

    unknown byproducs o chemical reacions during

    racking, are mobilized along wih hydrocarbon gases

    and oher polluans, and emited ino he air o varying

    degrees.217 This pus he issue o racking chemical

    disclosure ino proper perspecive as a signiican bu

    noneheless singular componen o he indusry’s pollu-

    ion. Full chemical disclosure would no pu an end o

    he indusry’s waer and air polluion.

    The issue o racking chemical secrecy noneheless reso-

    naes wih he public, in par because i is an example o

    he deerence ha policymakers regularly gran o oil and

    gas companies, and because i illusraes how such deer-

    ence holds back scieniic invesigaions o he indusry’simpacs on public healh and he environmen. Indeed,

    some in he oil and gas indusry have worked wih he

    American Legislaive Exchange Commission (ALEC), and

    ALEC has in urn helped o see ha sae legislaures

    only consider disclosure requiremens ha are accepable

    o he indusry.218 Even when disclosure is required in

    he even o emergencies, as is he case in some saes, a

    company can be slow o comply.219 

    While regulaions vary by sae, rade-secre proecions

    graned in he Toxic Subsances Conrol Ac mean haracking companies ypically do no have o disclose

    all he chemicals hey pump underground.220 In ac, in

    many cases, oil and gas companies old off-he-shel

    producs ino he racking luids ha hey make on-sie,

    wihou acually knowing he chemicals conained in

    hese producs.221 

    I is known ha oil and gas companies have injeced a

    wide variey o oxic chemicals o racure wells, and

    have injeced many more chemicals or which oxici-

    ies are no well sudied.222 For example, among hechemicals ideniied, over 100 are known or suspeced

    endocrine disrupors.223 Numerous known or suspeced

    carcinogens also have been used since 2005 as addiives

    in hydraulic racuring luids.224 Many o he known

    chemicals used are volaile, meaning ha hey escape

    readily ino he air.225 Very litle is known abou healh

    risks posed by mixures o all he chemicals brough o

    he surace, and he exen o chemical reacions ha

    orm dangerous byproducs.226

    Beyond inadequae requiremens or disclosure o

    racking chemicals, here are many oher undamenal

    challenges o quaniying he oil and gas indusry’s

    releases or each o he above polluans.

    The challenges begin wih he number and diversiy o

    sources, and how he consellaion o sources changes

    over ime as he oil and gas indusry operaes, arges

    new areas and adops new pracices.227 Geological

    differences rom well o well, and differen sages wihinhe oil and gas sysem — rom producion o disribuion

    — give rise o differences in he chemical composiions

    o wha ges released ino he air.228 The low rae and

    chemical composiion o he plumes rom a single source

    can also change over ime, under normal operaions,229 

    and can increase quickly, and unexpecedly, as a conse-

    quence o equipmen ailures.

    These acors make he size and chemical composiions

    o he plumes in he hird sream o emissions variable,

    or well- and sie-speciic. Imporanly, undersandingo he indusry’s emissions is blocked by lack o access

    o sies and o daa held by oil and gas companies,

    presuming ha hey have daa. As noed already, hese

    companies are empowered by rade-secre proecions

    and by key exempions graned o he oil and gas

    indusry under he landmark environmenal laws. A

    PhD hesis compleed in 2014 reveals anoher obsacle

    o ull inormaion: sources no couned a all, such as

    abandoned oil and gas wells leaking mehane and oher

    hydrocarbon gases.230

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  17

    Agains hese challenges, he EPA esimaes emissions

    using a botom-up approach, beginning wih an inven-

    ory o all o he differen indusry aciviies underaken

    in a given year.231 The EPA hen uses largely daed esi-

    maes o average emissions o each aciviy o arrive a

    an esimae o oal emissions rom he oil and naural

    gas sysems.232 This approach relies heavily on volunary

    sel-reporing rom he indusry.233

    In 2013, he EPA Inspecor General ound many oil and

    gas indusry emission acors o be o “low or unknown

    qualiy” due o insufficien daa, leading o a resul ha

    “likely underesimaes acual crieria polluan emissions

    rom oil and gas producion sources.”234 For example,

    here are no emission acors or air oxics and VOCs

    emanaing rom wase pis, rom produced waer anks,

    rom seps in he well compleion process including he

    speciic process o racking, and rom pneumaic devices,

    or pressure valves.235 

    Daa on he acual levels o various hydrocarbons in

    he amosphere, aken rom aircraf lighs and/or rom

    surace monioring locaions, make possible an alerna-

    ive, op-down approach o esimaing indusry emis-

    sions. Using amospheric chemisry, scieniss ake hese

    daa and hen combine hem wih daa on wind paterns

    o esimae, working backward, wha he dynamic

    sreams o mehane and oher hydrocarbons were ha

    lowed ogeher over an oil and gas play and gave rise o

    he hydrocarbon levels ha were measured.236 

    Scieniss using his aircraf measuremen approach in

    Uah, Colorado and Pennsylvania sugges ha much

    more mehane and oher air polluans are lowing rom

    oil and gas sies han botom-up esimaes based on

    daed emission acors and indusry sel-reporing.237

    Flying over an oil and gas ield in Uah one day in

    February 2012, Karion e al. measured very large levels

    o mehane — he equivalen o beween 6.2 percen

    and 11.7 percen o naural gas producion ha monh,

    assuming ha he day was represenaive o dailyemissions ha monh.238 In April 2014, Caulon e al.

    published a sudy o mehane emissions during he

    drilling sage a well sies in Pennsylvania and ound

    several super-emiters, each releasing 100 o 1,000 imes

    he EPA’s esimae o emissions during he drilling phase,

    as uilized in is botom-up, invenory esimaes.239 In

    May 2014, Péron e al. looked a mehane emissions in

    he Denver-Julesberg basin in Colorado over a wo-day

    srech in 2012 using monioring equipmen on owers

    and on aircraf lown above he play, and concluded

    rom he measuremens ha mehane emissions

    were “close o 3 imes higher han an hourly emission

    esimae based on EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporing

    Program daa or 2012.”240 

    Because o variabiliy rom sie o sie, mehane emis-

    sions can be used only as a crude indicaor o emissions

    o oher polluans brough o he surace by he oil

    and gas indusry. Noneheless, hese resuls are consis-

    en wih he EPA Inspecor General’s conclusion ha

    curren invenory esimaes undersae he oil and gas

    indusry emissions o air oxics and oher VOCs, no jus

    mehane.

    Imporanly, Péron e al. esimaed ha benzene

    emissions were abou seven imes larger han he

    Colorado invenory esimaes would sugges.241 The

    ac ha benzene emissions were evidenly no jus

    approximaely hree imes larger, consisen wih he

    inding on mehane emissions, bu closer o seven imes

    larger, shows how simple, generic (i.e., linear) ormulas

    or inerring non-mehane VOC levels rom mehane

    levels can mislead. Simple inerence o non-mehane

    VOCs rom mehane can hide poenially crucial — and

    harmul — differences in he composiions o he raw

    hydrocarbon gases rom well sies, as well as hide differ-

    ences in he composiions o he differen sreams onaural gases managed a differen sages in he naural

    gas sysem. In oher words, ar more harmul gases han

    have been esimaed may be lowing rom some wells in

    some regions, no jus rom he Denver-Julesberg basin.

    This highlighs ha widespread drilling and racking is

    a large, unconrolled experimen, and ha he conse-

    quences or human healh remain largely unknown.242 

    Top-down sudies based on aircraf measuremens only

    provide a look a emissions over a shor ime span, and

    rom sources wihin relaively small areas o indusryaciviy. A paper published in December 2013 by Miller

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    e al. has suggesed ha, naionally, in 2010, leakage o

    naural gas rom he oil and gas indusry in he Unied

    Saes amouned o he equivalen o over 3 percen oend-use naural gas consumpion ha year; ha is, he

    auhors suggesed ha acual emissions were more han

    30 percen higher han he EPA’s esimae a he ime.243 

    In a review published in February 2014, Brand e al.

    surveyed he scieniic lieraure on oil and gas indusry

    mehane emissions and likewise concluded ha he

    botom-up, invenory approach used by he EPA signii-

    canly underesimaes naional mehane emissions.244

    Natural gas dependence causes

    more global warming than thought

    Because undersanding o naional mehane emissions

    is lacking, he climae impacs o widespread drilling and

    racking are a mater o curren debae.245 Bu he over-

    whelming ocus o his debae on he climae impacs o

    using naural gas insead o coal o generae elecriciy

    loses sigh o he oil and gas indusry’s role as a major

    source o climae polluion.

    Abou wo hirds o U.S. climae polluion sems rom

    he oil and gas indusry, wih a litle under 30 percen

    semming rom naural gas producion, processing,

    ranspor and use.246 However, he esimaes o mehane

    leakage used o arrive a hese igures are based on he

    official underesimaes discussed above.247 The above

    igures on climae polluion semming rom he oil and

    gas indusry also hinge on comparisons o he relaive

    conribuions o he differen greenhouse gases o global

    warming.248 Now, according o he consensus science

    ha is presened in he mos recen Inergovernmenal

    Panel on Climae Change (IPCC) assessmen, i is clear

    ha officials have also been grealy underesimaing hepoency o mehane as an agen o climae change.249 

    The IPCC now saes ha, pound or pound, a pulse

    o mehane rom he oil and gas indusry raps 36

    imes more hea han a pulse o carbon dioxide, over

    a 100-year ime rame, and raps 87 imes more hea

    over a 20-year ime rame.250 Remarkably, since he irs

    IPCC assessmen repor, each subsequen repor — in

    1996, 2001, 2007 and mos recenly 2013 — has increased

    he esimae o mehane’s “global warming poenial,”

    relaive o carbon dioxide.251 The mos recen increase

    was he larges,252 raising he quesion o wheher more

    increases are in sore as climae science progresses.

    Nowihsanding he signiican climae polluion rom

    he naural gas sysem, advocaes o naural gas have

    oued he uel as a ool or addressing he challenge

    o global warming.253 Debae over he climae impacs

    o swiching o naural gas rom oher ossil uels has

    become conroversial, in par because i is based on a

    alse choice: burn naural gas or burn oher ossil uels.

    Framing he climae impac o racking in his way losessigh o hree crucial poins.

    Firs, mos recenly, racking is being done primarily

    o exrac oil. Since he end o Augus 2012, abou 75

    percen or more o drilling rigs have argeed primarily

    oil, no naural gas, and abou wo hirds o all he

    drilling rigs operaing in he Unied Saes are he sor

    capable o drilling horizonally hrough shale and igh

    rock ormaions.254 Fracking makes i possible o bring

    o he surace and burn much more oil han previously

    imagined, and here has never been any preenseha such oil consumpion is anyhing bu bad or he

    climae.255 Second, increased naural gas use in he

    elecriciy secor does no jus displace oher ossil uels,

    i displaces cleaner soluions, such as solar, wind and

    efficiency.256 Third, much o he coal displaced, insead o

    saying underground, is jus being expored and burned

    in oher counries, offseting, a an inernaional level,

    he U.S. reducions in carbon dioxide emissions ha

    come rom swiching o naural gas.257 The claim ha

    hese oher counries would jus burn coal rom else-

    where anyway258 relecs he excepionally low sandards

    or U.S. leadership on he issue o global warming.

    These hree caveas se aside, Food & Waer Europe

    ook a close look a he condiions and assumpions

    under which using naural gas insead o oher ossil

    uels migh acually mean marginally less global

    warming. Burning naural gas does produce abou hal

    as much carbon dioxide as burning coal, wih less poen-

    ial or carbon dioxide reducions when using naural

    gas insead o heaing oil, gasoline or diesel.259 However,

    hese poenial carbon dioxide reducions are offse by

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    The Urgent Case for a Ban on Fracking  19

    he leakage o mehane rom he naural gas sysem,

    and jus how much hey are offse remains an open and

    conroversial quesion.260 

    There are a variey o ways o compare mehane emis-

    sions o carbon dioxide emissions, in order o begin o

    quaniy he climae impacs o burning naural gas

    insead o coal, or heaing oils, or gasoline or diesel.261 

    Mehane does no persis in he amosphere or as longas carbon dioxide, so merics used o compare emissions

    o he wo greenhouse gases depend on he ime rame

    considered. 262 Focusing on he nex ew decades, a ime

    rame in which mehane raps much more hea han

    carbon dioxide does, pound or pound,263 is necessary or

    hree undamenal and pressing reasons.264

    The irs reason is ha we ace he risk ha climae

    ipping poins will be surpassed in he near erm,

    meaning ha naural posiive eedbacks could kick in

    and lead o irreversible changes.265

     For example, reducedArcic ice coverage means more absorbed sunligh

    and warming.266 Furher, any warming ha haws ice

    crysals ha had rapped mehane will give rise o

    more mehane emissions, and hus more warming.267 

    Indeed, hawing o permaros in he Yamal Peninsula

    in Russia, and he subsequen release o massive

    amouns o mehane, likely explains he ormaion o

    seemingly botomless craers in July 2014.268 Second,

    even discouning he risk o climae ipping poins, he

    changes o he climae ha are already expeced o

    accompany 2 degrees Celsius o pos-indusrial warmingpromise o be dangerous and cosly.269 Third, curren

    climae science warns ha o have a “good” chance —

    ha is, signiicanly beter han a 50-50 chance — o

    keeping warming rom going beyond 2 degrees Celsius

    requires a very rapid ransiion off o all ossil uels,

    leaving mos underground.270 

    Reurning o he quesion o mehane leakage, a 2012

    sudy ound ha naural gas leakage ha amouns o

    more han abou 3.8 percen o naural gas consump-

    ion means ha swiching rom burning coal o burning

    naural gas o generae elecriciy would be worse or

    he climae or abou 20 years, a wash a 20 years, and

    marginally less damaging hereafer.271 The auhors

    urher deermined ha leakage a abou 7.6 percen

    would make such a swich worse over a 100-year

    horizon.272 These breakeven leakage raes were calcu-

    laed, however, using he now oudaed esimaes o

    mehane’s poency as a driver o climae change.273 

    Now, looking over he 20-year horizon, he breakeven

    leakage rae is closer o 2.8 percen or elecriciy

    generaion, when accouning ully or he new IPCC

    esimaes o mehane’s poency.274 Similarly, on he

    20-year ime rame, he breakeven leakage raes are

    also lower, now a abou 0.9 percen when naural gas

    displaces diesel in heavy rucks and 1.7 percen whennaural gas displaces gasoline in cars, alhough boh o

    hese breakeven leakage raes do no incorporae several

    acors ha would make hem even lower.275 As saed

    already, naural gas leakage in 2010 amouned o more

    han 3 percen o consumpion in 2010.276 I remains

    o be seen how much more naural gas han 3 percen

    leaked hen, and wheher much more han 3 percen

    coninues o leak.277 

    Thereore, a bes, i will ake decades beore swiching

    rom coal o naural gas in he elecriciy secor willranslae o moderaely less climae damage — ha is

    he realiy o he “climae benei” presened by advo-

    caes o drilling and racking or naural gas. Crucially,

    his presumes ha srong regulaory and enorcemen

    regimes can be pu in