The Uranium Enrichment Market

The American Nuclear Energy Revival Briefing Series

September 23, 2010 Ruthanne G. Neely

Senior Vice President, Enrichment & General Counsel

The Ux Consulting Company, LLC

The Uranium Enrichment Market 23-Sep-10 2

• Founded in March 1994 • Provides nuclear fuel consulting and market information services to suppliers, utilities,

investors and government agencies internationally • Publishes:

– Ux Weekly (publication started in 1987) • UxC News Headlines

– Quarterly Market Outlook reports with price forecasts • Uranium, Conversion, Enrichment, and Fabrication

– Nuclear Power Outlook – Uranium Suppliers Annual – The Changing Geopolitics of the Nuclear Fuel Market – Country Uranium Mining and Export Polices – UxC Policy Watch briefing service – SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL

• Launched uranium futures contract with NYMEX in May 2007 • Offices located in Atlanta, GA, Washington, DC, and other locations • The most complete and accurate consulting service in the market, backed by senior

industry experience and strong fundamental analysis

The Ux Consulting Company

The Uranium Enrichment Market 23-Sep-10 3

Source: http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-5.html

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

The Uranium Enrichment Market 23-Sep-10 4

Fabrication

14%

Uranium

46%

Conversion

4%

Enrichment

36%

23%

23%

28%

20%

6%

Other (various)

AREVA (France)

Rosatom/TENEX (Russia)

URENCO (Europe/U.S.)

USEC (U.S.)

Front-End Nuclear Fuel Industry:

$18 Billion

Enrichment Industry:

≈ 50 MMSWU or $6.5 Billion

2009 Market Shares of Major Enrichers 2009 Front-End Nuclear Fuel Market Values

$46/lb U3O8

Note: USEC chart updated by Ux Consulting

Enrichment Is A High Value Component

$131/SWU

The Uranium Enrichment Market 23-Sep-10 5

Changing Enrichment Technology 1995-2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Centrifuge HEU Laser Total SWU Supply

Million SWU © UxC

The Uranium Enrichment Market 23-Sep-10 6

Closed by the end of 2016 ??

USEC Paducah GDP AREVA/Eurodif Tricastin GDP

Closed by the end of 2012 ??

Combined optimal economic capacity

of 14.0 million SWU/year

The Two GDP Facilities

The Uranium Enrichment Market 23-Sep-10 7

Uses 5% of the electric power required by a gaseous diffusion plant

Gas Centrifuge Technology

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New Enrichment Plant Projects – All Gas Centrifuge But One

Company Project Location Final Capacity (million SWU)

USEC ACP Portsmouth, OH 3.8*

URENCO URENCO USA/LES Eunice, NM 5.9*

AREVA Georges Besse II Tricastin, France 7.5*

AREVA Eagle Rock Enrichment

Facility (EREF) Idaho Falls, ID 3.0*

JNFL New Centrifuge Plant Rokkasho-mura, Japan 1.5

China Phase 4 Enrichment Plant Hanzhong, China 1.5*

GLE GLE-SILEX Laser Project Wilmington, NC 3.0-6.0

* These publicly announced “final” SWU capacities could very well be increased before 2020, if market demand exists and licensing and regulatory permits are in place.

New Enrichment Plant Projects

The Uranium Enrichment Market 23-Sep-10 9

Major SWU Suppliers / Marketable Supplies 2000, 2010, 2020

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

2000 2010 2020

MOX/RepU/Other

JNFL/China

GLE Laser

URENCO

AREVA

ROSATOM

HEU

USEC

Million SWU © UxC

The Uranium Enrichment Market 23-Sep-10 10

SWU Supply and Demand 2008-2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Repu/Mox

RU HEU

TENEX*

USEC ACP

USEC GDP

Others

GLE/SILEX

AREVA EREF

AREVA GBII

AREVA Sales

URENCO USA

URENCO EU

* Tenex production

does not include

tails re-enrichment.

Million SWU © UxC

URM Demand

Range